Opinions..may sell 1972 unopened wax box
Steelernation
Posts: 362 ✭
Hi guys,
Thinking of selling an unopened box of 1972 wax 5th/6th series, 24 packs. Also, has steves blessing. So what's the best way that you would sell just one box? eBay(BIN or auction), AH and which auction house do you guys think is best (fees/commission/exposure/specializes) or offers from CU? Also, some other 70's boxes depending on the price.
...also, what do you think is the going value currently? I think I saw fritsch listed one or some, couldnbe mistaken.
Just needing some cash. And have a couple cards I have my eye on. It's not an emergency so I can wait for an AH.
Oh, and I'm so tempted to sit one evening and rip one "delicious"pack after another.
Thanks for the input.
Thinking of selling an unopened box of 1972 wax 5th/6th series, 24 packs. Also, has steves blessing. So what's the best way that you would sell just one box? eBay(BIN or auction), AH and which auction house do you guys think is best (fees/commission/exposure/specializes) or offers from CU? Also, some other 70's boxes depending on the price.
...also, what do you think is the going value currently? I think I saw fritsch listed one or some, couldnbe mistaken.
Just needing some cash. And have a couple cards I have my eye on. It's not an emergency so I can wait for an AH.
Oh, and I'm so tempted to sit one evening and rip one "delicious"pack after another.
Thanks for the input.
0
Comments
Once I did that I'd ask myself how bad I need the money, because in 25 years from now I don't know if I wanna even know how much of an increase that would be....
Whatever you choose, good luck!
How about a pic of the box for us?
Shane
Thx
Btw..anyone know what fair market value is currently?
See it still going up in th next 3-5yrs?
These boxes came from a find from a former Topps executive in 2012. I believe there were slightly more than a case of
these boxes in that group.
We broke one of these boxes in a CU rip a little over a year ago and the cards that came out of it were exceptional. The
centering was amongst the best we have ever seen in a break, and the cards were well focused and clean as can be.
I pulled both a Ryan (graded PSA 7 due to a side ding) and a Rose (PSA 8.5 and should have been a 9) from that rip. The
commons were did a bit better.
When you consider that a 1973 Topps Series 5 box last sold for over $10k, I think the 1972 Topps 5th/6th series boxes
are dramatically undervalued. With Rose (559 and 560), Ryan (595), Garvey (686), Carew (695 and 696) and all of the
low-pop, high grade high numbers there is quite a bit more potential value in the 1972 box.
If you need the cash now then you need the cash now, but I see the 1-3 year future of these boxes being at least 50%
higher than the last sale on record.
Dave
depending on whether the box is sealed in shrink-wrap by BBCE, has other solid provenance or is just a wax bux you purchased from an AH or off Ebay.
In my opinion, such a box with BBCE blessing or solid provenance probbaly has a current retail value in the $6k +/- 10% range. Without that kind of
authenticity opinion, its probably about 20% less.
Dave
<< <i>Last sale of such a box was at about $7200 with BP (consignor probably netted around $6k).
These boxes came from a find from a former Topps executive in 2012. I believe there were slightly more than a case of
these boxes in that group.
We broke one of these boxes in a CU rip a little over a year ago and the cards that came out of it were exceptional. The
centering was amongst the best we have ever seen in a break, and the cards were well focused and clean as can be.
I pulled both a Ryan (graded PSA 7 due to a side ding) and a Rose (PSA 8.5 and should have been a 9) from that rip. The
commons were did a bit better.
When you consider that a 1973 Topps Series 5 box last sold for over $10k, I think the 1972 Topps 5th/6th series boxes
are dramatically undervalued. With Rose (559 and 560), Ryan (595), Garvey (686), Carew (695 and 696) and all of the
low-pop, high grade high numbers there is quite a bit more potential value in the 1972 box.
If you need the cash now then you need the cash now, but I see the 1-3 year future of these boxes being at least 50%
higher than the last sale on record. >>
I certainly have no idea what these should sell for now or in the future but the bullishness in these posts is astonishing. This is more euphoric then the forecasts for internet stocks at one time.
higher than the last sale on record. >>
So if these annualize at a 17% rate of return where do you see them stopping? Using the rule of 72 this will double ever 4.23 years.
These boxes are valued based upon a combination of the potential of what is inside, plus the collectibility of
legitimately unopened material that has survived intact since it was originally produced.
If a 1973 5th series box (Schmidt RC series) is selling above $10k, then when you consider what it contains
versus what the 1972 5th/6th series box contains then the 1972 box is certainly worth at least as much as the
Schmidt series box.
In terms of the valuation based upon being legitimately unopened, the relative scarcity of the 1972 5th/6th
series boxes (of which we have seen only about a dozen in existence), is significantly greater than the scarcity
of the 1973 5th series box.
Lastly, we broke a 1973 5th series box here on the board in the same break we did the 1972 5th/6th series
box and the quality of what came from the 1973 box was dramatically inferior to what came out of the 1972
box.
We know that all of the 1972 boxes came from the same source and were from either the same case or a small
number of cases. With the 1973 boxes, the only significant source who had them in any volume is Fritsch and the
larger number of other 1973 boxes could have come from many different cases.
With the current market value of the 1973 5th series box at around $10k, it seems like a no-brainer that the
higher-potential value, scarcer, better quality 1972 5th/6th series boxes are certainly woth at least as much
(and probably somewhat more).
Call that being bullish if you want, but I think that the facts speak for themselves.
5th/6th series
Dave
Relative to what has happened in the rest of the market for that era of material the 1972 boxes
will catch up to their peers. Once they have, it may stabilize for a while or we may continue to
see the diminishing supply of material continue to drive prices higher.
All that can be said for sure is that the 1972 boxes have not yet experienced the increase that has
been seen by their peers from other years, and they are scarcer (and have a much higher likelihood
of better quality contents based on what we have seen from our rip than their peers).
Nothing goes up forever, but these 1972 boxes definitely still have upside until they at least meet their
peers.
Dave
Keep it sealed for the next sucker at buying vintage "sealed"
I would just consider making forecasts of ever rising prices as bullishness. There are certain collectibles that trend higher over time and have little if any price correction. That being said a 50% jump in a 1 to 3 year period is huge for an already valuable item and that is a bullish forecast no matter what the supply and demand characteristics look like.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
When you look at it as one or many individual members of the market it isnt about
rule of 72.
In late 2011 you could buy a box of 1973 5th series with BBCE authentication for about $3800.
The next we saw them were in Collect Auctions going for upward of $7k with BP in 2012. Move
to 2013 where we have seen REA and others getting over $10k for the same boxes!
In the same period we have seen 1973 4th series boxes move from $1800 to $3400.
In the same period we have seen 1975 mini boxes move from $1200 to $2200 (there were
at least 15 cases of these known to exist, so they are nowhere near as scare).
In the same period we have seen 1976 boxes move $1600 to about $3200.
My statement that there is at least 50% upside in the 1972 5th/6th series boxes is based
on the facts that they are much scarcer, contain better potential value and based on the
story behind them probably come from a single case (or possibly two) and the rips that have
been done of them have yielded very high quality results. Since coming on the market they
have moved from $6k to about $7200-$7300. They have another $2.5k-$3k in them just
to be a rough parity to their contemporaries.
Also take into consideration that there are a group of newer entrants (as well as some of the existing
whales) who have come into this market and have been buying up everything they can get their hands on
at just about any price. As supply continues to get harder to find, their motivation to purchase seems to
move geometrically higher.
Time will tell
Dave
For quality unopened material, it's hard to justify the AH's commission. It pretty much sells itself.
I've really enjoyed just keeping up with the discussion.
<< <i>Thx 70topps and all. I'm so much better informed. I do agree. At least 25-30% is still left. 7k to possibly 9k. I'm in not that much of a hurry and may wait a yr. Also, you really want to make me rip them considering what's in there. That'd be fun. But 8k is a lot of money for anyone.
For quality unopened material, it's hard to justify the AH's commission. It pretty much sells itself.
I've really enjoyed just keeping up with the discussion. >>
Also, I noticed a sale where all the packs were graded. Depending on what that costs? It might be a good idea for resale?
Last thing ya want is to sell it and have someone go nuts and say the packs were resealed.
As some have said, we've peaked and prob will go down. I'm not so sure. But if prices do decrease for vintage I'll be first in line to buy more.
Thx again. You guys literally make this board what it is, a quality source of knowledge.
<< <i>I'd sell now. The market has peaked. >>
I'd would disagree. Prices are still climbing.
aconte
<< <i>
<< <i>I'd sell now. The market has peaked. >>
I'd would disagree. Prices are still climbing.
aconte >>
I'd be interested to know how people distinguish between a bubble run up and reasonable appreciation in this market. We've established that the prices being paid for unopened product have no "fundamentals", ie are not based on expected value of PSA graded contents. I understand that the unopened material has value as a collectible in its own right, but on what basis does one decide on valuation? Just going by what people are paying does nothing to rule out a big-time bubble.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Jesus Tim--SSSSSSSSSSHHHHHHHHHHHHH
<< <i>I don't believe prices will continue to rise at the accelerated rate we've seen going back the last couple of years, but I would expect a more modest continued appreciation in prices going forward. The allure and appeal of unopened product is always going to defy fundamentals to a certain extent, but authentic unopened product (unlike graded card pops) will only become scarcer over time. >>
Well put, Tim. I completely agree.
Justin
Retired - Eddie Mathews Master Registry Set (96.36%) Rank 1
<< <i>I don't believe prices will continue to rise at the accelerated rate we've seen going back the last couple of years, but I would expect a more modest continued appreciation in prices going forward. The allure and appeal of unopened product is always going to defy fundamentals to a certain extent, but authentic unopened product (unlike graded card pops) will only become scarcer over time. >>
So if it continues to rise at accelerated rates, against your expectations, how long before it is considered a bubble? I know the markets are quite different, but when my home value more than doubled in less than three years, I knew there was a bubble in the housing market that would have to correct eventually. What are the criteria for determining an unopened bubble (without the benefit of hindsight)?
<< <i>The criteria which makes this different is supply. In 07 there were some who "owned" 3 homes flipping. Bubble in stocks, there's a finite number which get unloaded then add the short sellers who all want to get out which accelerates the selling. In unopened, there is debate how much is actually hoarded and waiting. The point is the supply isn't going up, only down with every rip. There may be a pull back of 5-10% but I think there are a lot waiting for that. I'm a buyer if there's anywhere near a 15-20% decrease. I think were at a slower gradual climb in prices. No longer the 30-60% price increase which we've been seeing. >>
You nailed it. Can't compare baseball cards to other markets - stocks, housing. To make it apples to apples, you would have to burn down houses every day, and never allow another house to be built.
Is this a bubble, maybe. But I don't recall any other corrections on vintage uopened that were so horrifying that I (or any of us) should not be buyers. If I wasn't married, I'd buy every box of 1972 I could get my hands on.
<< <i>Opinions please.............How many unopened '72 wax boxes are there? >>
No one can possibly quantify that. I would say not as many as I would like since they are going for 7K+ a box, LOL!
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>If you don't genuinely NEED the money, you would be a fool to sell it. >>
Just to play devil's advocate....most here seem to think a "top" will never be reached. So assuming someone holding wax didn't want to take it to the grave, what would be a non-foolish point at which to sell?
<< <i>
<< <i>If you don't genuinely NEED the money, you would be a fool to sell it. >>
Just to play devil's advocate....most here seem to think a "top" will never be reached. So assuming someone holding wax didn't want to take it to the grave, what would be a non-foolish point at which to sell? >>
I am not one to think a top won't be reached and stay steady or even see a small dip. But I'd be stunned if prices if reached what they were 10, 5, or even 2 years ago.
And like I said, I think maurice is wrong that the peak has been reached right now.
aconte
<< <i>
<< <i>If you don't genuinely NEED the money, you would be a fool to sell it. >>
Just to play devil's advocate....most here seem to think a "top" will never be reached. So assuming someone holding wax didn't want to take it to the grave, what would be a non-foolish point at which to sell? >>
Well, it sure seems to me (I am not an unopened collector) that in reading the recent posts, when BBCE gets in any wax boxes from the late 70's early 80's they sell out quickly and always at pretty significant increases. Looks to me like the buyers just can't get enough right now.
I would think there would be a HUGE demand for an early 70's box and the prices are increasing especially fast right now. If I HAD to make a suggestion, I would wait until next baseball season and see where it is at. With a segment of the collectors ripping whatever they get their hands on, I really don't EVER see the value of your box decreasing. I would wait until I perceived there was some leveling off of the prices, but that might never happen.
Good overall question about when to sell ANYTHING you don't want to go to the grave with. General answer is if you have a "bucket list" and your item will pay for something on that list, do it while you are still young enough to enjoy it. Hell, in that case, you might want to rip it yourself, might be a major money loss, but it sure would be fun!
Good luck on whatever you decide!
<< <i>And like I said, I think maurice is wrong that the peak has been reached right now.
aconte >>
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K9UVlSIhOGQ
Topps and others have been so insightful and convincing that now I'm actually thinking of BUYING more unopened than selling. Ha!
Also, the temptation is there to sit back and open the box, pack by sweet pack. Pealing one card after another from the pack.....shivers.
Tell you what, if I still have all of this when I'm in my 80's, I'm ripping everything. Forget the money and my offspring.
ebay id Duffs_Dugout
My Ebay Auctions
One of the things I find interesting is everyone is assuming the surge in the demand side of the equation will stay constant or increase.
After being active in the card market and watching all of the types of cards that exist I have come to the conclusion that many of the markets are very thin.
There are generally a handful of collectors that dominate specific genres or segments and have a very real impact on final prices. I continue to see the same board members who are very bullish on the unopened pack market beat the drum and they are the same individuals who own a large amount of inventory themselves. This is perfectly normal and there is nothing wrong with this behavior but it confirms my belief that the market could not clear if a large amount of these collectors brought their inventory all at once to the market.
If a specific item has a bid list of say 15 EBAY members it is very possible that a large percentage of those post on this board. Lets say an item generally might sell for $800 it is very rational for the bidders who own a like kind item to bid for example $500 for two reasons. One to buy the item on the perceived cheap and two to support the market. Many EBAY auctions have a pack of bidders and then a few that are much higher then the pack that determine the final price. If just a few of those bidders decide to leave the market for whatever reason the realized price is much lower.
I continue to only hear about the supply side of the market. Yes it is true that supply in the aggregate can never increase but on the micro level it can. If for whatever reason a few collectors decide they want to sell the supply can have a huge spike and while the overall supply has not increased the short term supply has. Yes it is fair to say that the current crop of buyers may quickly absorb this supply but it is an unknown.
One of the primary drivers at the moment is the swiftness of sales at BBCE. When a market is clearing so quickly it creates the element of I have to make a decision now or I am left out in the cold. As prices continue to rise they will finally reach a point where this fades.
I find it very troubling that the notion of sealed is trumping the break up value by such a large margin. If you look at much older packs from the 50's per say there are very few that remain in their sealed state so that in itself is collectible. When you move to 70's and 80's and beyond with such a large number holding these packs as investments it is really hard to say the supply is as tight naturally but more artificially.
When markets move wildly pasts fundamentals we can all come up with great reasons why it is fine but in the end markets generally overshoot on the way up and overshoot on the way down and with so many sealed packs selling for so much more then their break up value I think suggesting prices will continue to expand to the sky is very speculative.
There are many experts in all markets but in many cases prices move beyond their wildest dreams. It is fair to say I thought prices of wrestling cards would move up but when a sealed pack of the 1983 Wrestling All Stars sold for over $1,000 on EBAY I thought it was unsustainable even though I was thrilled. It is exciting when the cards or packs you own go wild but with thin markets they can correct just as fast.
I doubt you will see a major correction anytime soon but I would look at the bid lists and discount the final prices by a large number. That is what I do when I value my collection because it only takes a few to drive them up and it only takes a few to have them fall.
Obliviously this debate will continue and time will tell how it plays out but the extreme optimism suggest we are a near a peak in my opinion.
Have you noticed the meteoric rise of HOF rookie cards in PSA 9 from the 1970s lately? A PSA 9 75 mini Brett was a $400 card a couple years ago; now it's a $1,500 card. A PSA 9 Ozzie Smith RC was a $300 card a couple years ago. Now it's a $900 card. So if anything the appreciation in unopened prices has paled in comparison to the rise, percentage wise, of those graded cards. The PSA 9 73 Schmidt is another example.
The unopened market is certainly a niche market, but if anything, I see more people than ever collecting unopened product these days as the allure of vintage unopened product has a special appeal to many collectors. If anything, demand is higher now than ever before (as evidenced by prices over the past couple of years), and I don't see that changing.
I don't think prices will continue to rise at this rate for the next two years, but I certainly don't see prices falling anywhere near where they were two years ago, either.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
For giggles I will throw out 84 Donruss psa 10s for a lesson there, or any registry 10 commons. Same idea.
ebay id Duffs_Dugout
My Ebay Auctions
Therein lies the difference, imo--for so-called "low pop" commons, there is essentially one way for prices to go--and that's downward, as the pop reports rise and the supply of 10s exceeds the number of set collectors desiring them.
But with unopened product, the supply will only diminish over time, as even with these prices, I and many others continue to rip packs because we enjoy doing so as collectors and that PSA 9 Brett mini is worth a lot more now than it was in 2011. But as an unopened collector, there are many packs in my collection that I have no intention of ever opening. And those who avidly collect unopened product, and who are in that category as collectors, don't really care about the sum of the parts--they collect unopened in the same fashion as those who collect cards in plastic holders and pay huge premiums just because someone affixed a Mint 9 or Gem Mint 10 to the flip. The fact that the unopened market continues to be such a hot topic of conversation, even among those who don't really even collect unopened for the sake of keeping it unopened, is testament to its special appeal, imo.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
That being said you would need to take into consideration the odds of pulling a card in high grade and specifically the star cards and discount the break up value of a pack or box. If you can for example on average pull two of the star cards that you are looking for but the chances are low in high grade you can't place as high of value on the unopened potential because you know on average your chances of recouping those funds are lower.
If you measured packs like stocks and used a price to yield ratio you have seen a dramatic increase in this ration. 75% of the run up in stocks has come from an expansion in the price to earnings ratio this year which essentially means you are paying 75% more per unit of earnings.
Yes the prices of the potential content value have risen, but the odds of obtaining the most valuable cards have not. The prices of high grade examples were driven by the scarcity of the cards in that condition and even though the price per pack or box has risen your odds of pulling the great cards have not.
This market reminds me of the real estate market where ownership rates far exceeded rental rates. Historically you got a lower true monthly payment to own but in the real estate bubble that scenario was turned upside down and it cost more to own on a monthly basis. There has to be a profit incentive for the buyer for most unopened product eventually. There will always be packs that the lottery element trumps fundamentals like the 1986 Fleer Basketball or the 1979 OPC Hockey.
I am in no way suggesting prices will fall to a certain level from a prior year and there certainly could be parts of the market that keep going up in the short run. I just wouldn't forecast ever rising prices because the price to yield ratio is off the historical charts. Will certain sets fall at some point I do think that is possible even though it seems unthinkable at the moment.
Personally I think it is very fascinating to see the market in such a frenzy. I just realize that frenzy's can cool unexpectedly and discount values accordingly. There have been parabolic moves higher which in all markets leave you extremely vulnerable to heavy price correction. None of us have a crystal ball and will know the outcome after it happens.
Ask yourself if you think you can bust a box of 1981 Topps at $240 and win. If the answer is no then ask yourself how much you think you could get out of the box. At some point that spread reaches extremes.
<< <i> I find it very troubling that the notion of sealed is trumping the break up value by such a large margin. >>
I don't see where this comes from? I've seen statements like this several times in the different unopened discussions and it seems to be a common sentiment that box/case prices are becoming more than the potential value inside. If anyone really believes this, please give me an example of a box that is priced so high that it is not possible to recoup your investment…in most cases, all it takes is a high grade star card or high grade low pop.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>
<< <i> I find it very troubling that the notion of sealed is trumping the break up value by such a large margin. >>
I don't see where this comes from? I've seen statements like this several times in the different unopened discussions and it seems to be a common sentiment that box/case prices are becoming more than the potential value inside. If anyone really believes this, please give me an example of a box that is priced so high that it is not possible to recoup your investment…in most cases, all it takes is a high grade star card or high grade low pop. >>
A box of 1979 Topps baseball sold for $1,014.95 on November 5th.
You have less then a 5% chance of pulling a high grade Ozzie Smith when you use the cards that have been graded and in reality it is much smaller because so many are off centered they would never get sent in.
I think if you busted this box on average at this price you would lose. I am sure there are a few of these boxes that might contain amazing cards but it is not the norm and recouping the purchase price will not be attainable.