<< <i> I find it very troubling that the notion of sealed is trumping the break up value by such a large margin. >>
I don't see where this comes from? I've seen statements like this several times in the different unopened discussions and it seems to be a common sentiment that box/case prices are becoming more than the potential value inside. If anyone really believes this, please give me an example of a box that is priced so high that it is not possible to recoup your investment…in most cases, all it takes is a high grade star card or high grade low pop. >>
A box of 1979 Topps baseball sold for $1,014.95 on November 5th.
You have less then a 5% chance of pulling a high grade Ozzie Smith when you use the cards that have been graded and in reality it is much smaller because so many are off centered they would never get sent in.
I think if you busted this box on average at this price you would lose. I am sure there are a few of these boxes that might contain amazing cards but it is not the norm and recouping the purchase price will not be attainable.
<< <i>So are buyers buying to speculate, holding? Or do you think the buyer is ripping for the Ozzie? >>
Buying to hold with the expectation of ever rising prices. The math is fairly easy for most and you hear repeatedly on this board not to open it at that price for most boxes.
<< <i> I find it very troubling that the notion of sealed is trumping the break up value by such a large margin. >>
I don't see where this comes from? I've seen statements like this several times in the different unopened discussions and it seems to be a common sentiment that box/case prices are becoming more than the potential value inside. If anyone really believes this, please give me an example of a box that is priced so high that it is not possible to recoup your investment…in most cases, all it takes is a high grade star card or high grade low pop. >>
A box of 1979 Topps baseball sold for $1,014.95 on November 5th.
You have less then a 5% chance of pulling a high grade Ozzie Smith when you use the cards that have been graded and in reality it is much smaller because so many are off centered they would never get sent in.
I think if you busted this box on average at this price you would lose. I am sure there are a few of these boxes that might contain amazing cards but it is not the norm and recouping the purchase price will not be attainable. >>
You are missing the point--unopened collectors primarily collect unopened product not because they expect to pull a PSA 9 Ozzie Smith RC but because the possibility is there if they decide to rip a box, and the vast majority of true unopened collectors don't plan on ripping that box.
Even so, the value of that Ozzie card is 3x as much as it was two years ago, so the value of a 79 wax box doubling over that time frame is not unrealistic, either. I would say that the likelihood of an Ozzie Smith RC in PSA 9 grade maintaining a value of $900 is no more likely as that 79 wax box mainting a value of $900.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i> I find it very troubling that the notion of sealed is trumping the break up value by such a large margin. >>
I don't see where this comes from? I've seen statements like this several times in the different unopened discussions and it seems to be a common sentiment that box/case prices are becoming more than the potential value inside. If anyone really believes this, please give me an example of a box that is priced so high that it is not possible to recoup your investment…in most cases, all it takes is a high grade star card or high grade low pop. >>
A box of 1979 Topps baseball sold for $1,014.95 on November 5th.
You have less then a 5% chance of pulling a high grade Ozzie Smith when you use the cards that have been graded and in reality it is much smaller because so many are off centered they would never get sent in.
I think if you busted this box on average at this price you would lose. I am sure there are a few of these boxes that might contain amazing cards but it is not the norm and recouping the purchase price will not be attainable. >>
You are missing the point--unopened collectors primarily collect unopened product not because they expect to pull a PSA 9 Ozzie Smith RC but because the possibility is there if they decide to rip a box, and the vast majority of true unopened collectors don't plan on ripping that box.
Even so, the value of that Ozzie card is 3x as much as it was two years ago, so the value of a 79 wax box doubling over that time frame is not unrealistic, either. >>
I am not missing any point. It is clear that most boxes that are purchased there is no intent to open.
<< <i>Buying to hold with the expectation of ever rising prices. The math is fairly easy for most and you hear repeatedly on this board not to open it at that price for most boxes.
This is speculation in its truest form. >>
Exactly. At these price levels, there are no end users.
History has shown that any market that has no end users will always follow the same path. Hype, spin and manipulation will only serve to prolong the inevitable.
It is clear that most boxes that are purchased there is no intent to open.
That much I will agree with you on. The value of unopened for unopened collectors has always been greater than the sum of its parts. That said, there's nothing like the occasional rip!
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
You guys are spending a lot of time talking about late 1970's and EARLY 1980's product? WTF?!?!?!?
As I stated before, I do not collect unopened, but I have been collecting for 25 years or so, certain items that were at one time if not plentiful were at least obtainable. This is no longer the case.
The OP is talking about a 1972 box of high numbered cards (by the way, how about a scan?), these are not even comparable to 1975 product (especially minis) that was hoarded and has now become very expensive, although still comes up once in a while.
Seems to me unopened from the 50's to late 60's is gone. From late 60's to early 70's either gone, or extremely expensive at least in baseball. Fritsch may have some, I didn't bother to look at his site, but I get most of the auction house catalogs, when do you ever see a 1962 or a 1968 wax box for sale?
In order to affect the market for early 1970's unopened, there would have to be an EXTREMELY large number of boxes come onto the market. Old stuff like that would just be absorbed.
Now if you want to talk about 1984 Donruss, that's a different matter.
2013,14 and 15 Certificate Award Winner Harmon Killebrew Master Set and Master Topps Set
Hey Joe, thx But I'm enjoying this conversation. A lot of food for thought. I agree with a lot. But following some of the reasoning...no longer is anyone gonna rip 79 for the Ozzie because it's cost prohibitive? Just throwing it out there. Just resubs? And along the lines of joebonzai, I don't have 20 consecutive yrs in unopened. That said I havemt really seen anything from the 60's....Soooo If a box of 63,65 or say 68 came up what price does it reach? I don't think there are comps to compare it to, not recent ones. So in a sense it has broken thru and really no limit, in a sense. Sorry, so what price would one of those boxes go for? Wow
Also, if there are so many hoarders of vintage material waiting for a maximal price point, wouldn't you think one or two of them would have released a 60's box?
Great discussion we have here. The collectors I know who buy unopened material are ripping it for the pure enjoyment. Granted, those boxes are from 1978-1987 because they are not at that crazy pack price of $100. Saying this I believe boxes selling for $4000+ are most likely being kept unopened. I would not want to destroy an unopened box of 1976 Topps because I think that is a box that is rarely seen. However, I would buy a couple of packs from a group rip at $100 a pack if that came available from BBCE. Majority of the collectors have a ceiling to what amount is too expensive for their budget to rip. Collectors are not EVER going to stop opening packs. I don't care if you collect 1953 Bowman Color cards you collect because you started opening up $.25 cent packs at the local grocery store back in 1985. The thrill of opening, the hunt for the best card, the gamble of hitting the perfect 10 or reliving the days of busting packs with dad will always be there. DPeck brings up some great points but how anyone could compare this hobby to stocks or the housing market is completely misguided. Baseball cards vs. the housing market have a common interest of ZERO. The only way the unopened market takes a tumble is if you had every collector sell off their material in a week span. That will never happen. If a major unopened collector were to sell off his entire inventory he could do it in 45 minutes and get top value. There are more buyers of this than the product that is available. For those who are leary about this go test the waters. Many who speak against this are those collectors who don't have the product or are disappointed that they opened up the boxes that they did have. I am a set collector but unopened material is a complete different animal than the player collector or set builder. There is nothing wrong with doing both or only doing one but who does not enjoy holding a box of 1975 Topps and wondering what was in the box or where has this box been? I personally don't think much material from 1977 Topps and older exists. Call me crazy but that is my opinion.
Looking for high grade rookie cards and unopened boxes/cases
<< <i> The only way the unopened market takes a tumble is if you had every collector sell off their material in a week span. That will never happen. If a major unopened collector were to sell off his entire inventory he could do it in 45 minutes and get top value. There are more buyers of this than the product that is available. . >>
Correct me if I am wrong, but:
1.) Isn't the number of collectors of unopened a fluid number...that is say there are 1000 today...might there not be 500 tommorow. Or 2000? And tying into that...
2.) Hasn't unopened product(and really the sports card market in general) tended to tumble each time there was an economic downturn?
<< <i> That said I havemt really seen anything from the 60's....Soooo If a box of 63,65 or say 68 came up what price does it reach? I don't think there are comps to compare it to, not recent ones. So in a sense it has broken thru and really no limit, in a sense. Sorry, so what price would one of those boxes go for? Wow >>
If you had a box of 1964 Topps the price would depend on condition of course but if it was in perfect condition you could get the dollar amount you were looking for. If the box was damaged and had a torn lid you could still get the dollar amount you were looking for. You can ask what you want all day long and there would be a ton of activity. BBCE sold five very rare boxes in less than a day on the floor of the National. Not sure what he was asking on the boxes on that day he showed them but I know what they sold for. Steve has a client list for every year and as DPeck said as a collector you are forced to make a quick move to buy it. If you pass someone is right behind ready to buy. Steeler I will PM you with some information.
Shane
Looking for high grade rookie cards and unopened boxes/cases
<< <i> The only way the unopened market takes a tumble is if you had every collector sell off their material in a week span. That will never happen. If a major unopened collector were to sell off his entire inventory he could do it in 45 minutes and get top value. There are more buyers of this than the product that is available. . >>
Correct me if I am wrong, but:
1.) Isn't the number of collectors of unopened a fluid number...that is say there are 1000 today...might there not be 500 tommorow. Or 2000? And tying into that...
2.) Hasn't unopened product(and really the sports card market in general) tended to tumble each time there was an economic downturn? >>
1.) Absolutely correct, however at this time it APPEARS that the number of buyers is growing as the supply shrinks, these two factors TOGETHER are causing the rapid rise in prices.
2.) Most everything is affected by a severe economic downturn, so I don't really see your point, In the case of a economic disaster, guns and food might be the only valuable commodities. LOL
Of course no one KNOWS what will happen tomorrow, it's all speculation. The fact of the matter is that time goes on and items just become unavailable.
I am quite interested in the next big unopened find, just to see what happens when there are some boxes to fight over!
I would still love to see a scan of the box, please!
2013,14 and 15 Certificate Award Winner Harmon Killebrew Master Set and Master Topps Set
Dodger Yes the card market took a major beating when the economy went south. People could not sell sets and they could not sell PSA graded cards without losing their shirt. If everyone will think back this is really when we began to see Ebay turn into a BIN field and not an auction field. However, the unopened material stayed pretty strong over that time although fewer people were actively buying- pricing never tanked. Speaking from 1978-present I noticed the unopened market slow down a little and I believe this is when BBCE really had the opportunity to restock his inventory. Let's just say that the unopened market went cold for those down years and BBCE loaded up from all of those desperate collectors who wanted out/needed money. His whole inventory has been depleted since August. So either the downturn in the economy never affected the unopened market or all of the unopened material that was heavily discounted for three years Steve bought up for pennies on the dollar. When the economy became whole, Steve became a millionaire and sold through it all in eight months. Only Steve can tell us what happened.
Looking for high grade rookie cards and unopened boxes/cases
<< <i>Great discussion we have here. The collectors I know who buy unopened material are ripping it for the pure enjoyment. Granted, those boxes are from 1978-1987 because they are not at that crazy pack price of $100. Saying this I believe boxes selling for $4000+ are most likely being kept unopened. I would not want to destroy an unopened box of 1976 Topps because I think that is a box that is rarely seen. However, I would buy a couple of packs from a group rip at $100 a pack if that came available from BBCE. Majority of the collectors have a ceiling to what amount is too expensive for their budget to rip. Collectors are not EVER going to stop opening packs. I don't care if you collect 1953 Bowman Color cards you collect because you started opening up $.25 cent packs at the local grocery store back in 1985. The thrill of opening, the hunt for the best card, the gamble of hitting the perfect 10 or reliving the days of busting packs with dad will always be there. DPeck brings up some great points but how anyone could compare this hobby to stocks or the housing market is completely misguided. Baseball cards vs. the housing market have a common interest of ZERO. The only way the unopened market takes a tumble is if you had every collector sell off their material in a week span. That will never happen. If a major unopened collector were to sell off his entire inventory he could do it in 45 minutes and get top value. There are more buyers of this than the product that is available. For those who are leary about this go test the waters. Many who speak against this are those collectors who don't have the product or are disappointed that they opened up the boxes that they did have. I am a set collector but unopened material is a complete different animal than the player collector or set builder. There is nothing wrong with doing both or only doing one but who does not enjoy holding a box of 1975 Topps and wondering what was in the box or where has this box been? I personally don't think much material from 1977 Topps and older exists. Call me crazy but that is my opinion. >>
When comparing packs or boxes to stocks I am just making the point that if you try and look at the valuation objectively like you can with a price to earnings ratio the prices are expensive. Perhaps a price per card is better metric that would establish this. If a box has tripled in price which some have then obviously your price per card has too and thus your break even point is that much more difficult to obtain.
There are quite a few differences between cards and stocks but one thing is very similar. A small percentage of the outstanding shares of stock trade on a daily basis and that is how people value their holdings. There are plenty of stocks that are liquid and plenty that are not. If you own a thinly traded security and own a large percentage of the shares it is not realistic to assume you could liquidate your holdings quickly with no impact on the market. With cards everyone who owns a box of said year is using a recent selling price as the value they would carry that asset at. Because there are no derivatives or ways to create artificial supply such as short selling you obviously can't compare the two assets classes completely. But do keep in mind market forces drive both.
The comparison to real estate is one that you can easily make if you were to compare ocean front property in say CA. The same arguments as to why it should go up exist all though you can't get the same utility out of cards obviously. Don't you remember the argument that land only goes us because they aren't making any more? I certainly do. My comparison to real estate was more that there was a time when ownership rates exceeded rental rates and although this defied the long term history of the market there was no shortage of people suggesting it was a new paradigm. With cards I think we are seeing a similar argument being made as the potential contents are no longer correlated with the purchase price at all in most cases.
What will be interesting is to see when the coming group breaks take place is how many packs get opened. Some buy them to rip, others to hoard or get graded and others to flip at a future price but as the prices have exploded I have to think more get kept sealed and those same packs represent potential future supply.
<< <i>What will be interesting is to see when the coming group breaks take place is how many packs get opened. Some buy them to rip, others to hoard or get graded and others to flip at a future price but as the prices have exploded I have to think more get kept sealed and those same packs represent potential future supply. >>
Regardless if people keep the packs unopened or rips them wouldn't the supply of unopened boxes decrease? The supply of cases decrease because collectors want to have an unopened box. The supply of unopened boxes decrease because collectors want the perfect conditioned pack. Lastly the supply of packs decrease because people want to hit a gem mint star. Every minute of the day the unopened material is decreasing rapidly.
Looking for high grade rookie cards and unopened boxes/cases
<< <i>What will be interesting is to see when the coming group breaks take place is how many packs get opened. Some buy them to rip, others to hoard or get graded and others to flip at a future price but as the prices have exploded I have to think more get kept sealed and those same packs represent potential future supply. >>
Regardless if people keep the packs unopened or rips them wouldn't the supply of unopened boxes decrease? The supply of cases decrease because collectors want to have an unopened box. The supply of unopened boxes decrease because collectors want the perfect conditioned pack. Lastly the supply of packs decrease because people want to hit a gem mint star. Every minute of the day the unopened material is decreasing rapidly. >>
Absolutely, even if very few are getting ripped there is a segment of the hobby that will rip a pack even if the odds are WAY against getting that mint HOFer and hitting the jackpot.
I think a lot of "casual" collectors have decided to buy unopened, similar to late 80's when people who generally didn't buy packs/boxes/cases started buying like crazy.
That's why you can't really compare this to the housing market or other things like the stock market, the supply is dwindling and within that the items are being "destroyed" when they are ripped.
Last I noticed when the housing market is healthy they start building homes like mad.
2013,14 and 15 Certificate Award Winner Harmon Killebrew Master Set and Master Topps Set
<< <i>I think a lot of "casual" collectors have decided to buy unopened....... >>
this would be a good place to identify where the groundswell began, and how these buyers continue to feed on product which entered the market through BBCE.
until recently, there was really no acceptable pedigree included with unopened product on ebay, but suddenly it seems like you can enter a group break or just buy directly and make a profit overnight.
<< <i>What will be interesting is to see when the coming group breaks take place is how many packs get opened. Some buy them to rip, others to hoard or get graded and others to flip at a future price but as the prices have exploded I have to think more get kept sealed and those same packs represent potential future supply. >>
Regardless if people keep the packs unopened or rips them wouldn't the supply of unopened boxes decrease? The supply of cases decrease because collectors want to have an unopened box. The supply of unopened boxes decrease because collectors want the perfect conditioned pack. Lastly the supply of packs decrease because people want to hit a gem mint star. Every minute of the day the unopened material is decreasing rapidly. >>
I have a question on this. If I buy packs for example from a group break and essentially accumulate enough to fill a box and then place them in a box from that set can I then show it to Steve and have him authenticate it and wrap it?
<< <i>What will be interesting is to see when the coming group breaks take place is how many packs get opened. Some buy them to rip, others to hoard or get graded and others to flip at a future price but as the prices have exploded I have to think more get kept sealed and those same packs represent potential future supply. >>
Regardless if people keep the packs unopened or rips them wouldn't the supply of unopened boxes decrease? The supply of cases decrease because collectors want to have an unopened box. The supply of unopened boxes decrease because collectors want the perfect conditioned pack. Lastly the supply of packs decrease because people want to hit a gem mint star. Every minute of the day the unopened material is decreasing rapidly. >>
I have a question on this. If I buy packs for example from a group break and essentially accumulate enough to fill a box and then place them in a box from that set can I then show it to Steve and have him authenticate it and wrap it? >>
I sure hope not. A legitimate full box is much more desirable than one that is pieced together. You can usually have a pretty good sense if the box is real based on similar wrapping of the packs, although if a couple packs were pulled and replaced I don't have much faith it would be caught....
I'm also not too crazy about the whole "wrapping by Steve" trend. While it's obviously a boon for authentication and value, it makes it impossible to adequately examine what you're buying without breaking the seal. Because of this, I purchased a 1977 wax tray which Steve had wrapped, and could only see that it had a major tear in the cello once I cracked it out.
At the very least, if this is going to be done, any hidden condition issues should be noted and identified by Steve.
PaulMaul, I would think that Steve would be happy to sell you a box without the wrap if you wanted it that way. I am not a pack collector so I would be pretty annoyed with the tear in the wrapper as well.
Looking for high grade rookie cards and unopened boxes/cases
I have some fresh unopened 1975 mini that are wrapped by Steve. I also have a box I am slowly taking my time and building. I would not be inclined to get that wrapped since it is not a legitimate fresh box but when put together.
<< <i>I have some fresh unopened 1975 mini that are wrapped by Steve. I also have a box I am slowly taking my time and building. I would not be inclined to get that wrapped since it is not a legitimate fresh box but when put together.
aconte >>
Would Steve authenticate it and wrap it for a fee if you asked him to? It would seem to be that if the packs look legit there is no way he would know it was hand collated.
Unless the box is from a sealed case, there is no way to know for certain if it was put together although there are some things to look for especially when it comes to wax.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>Unless the box is from a sealed case, there is no way to know for certain if it was put together although there are some things to look for especially when it comes to wax. >>
Yes, with every legit box I've ever owned, you can see when comparing the packs that they're all wrapped in a similar way when it comes to any printing errors on the wrapper, centering of the wrapper, etc. Also, if the packs have ad variations, there will usually be an even breakdown of the different variations within a legit box.
Steves new 75 mini boxes were posted in another thread somewhere. Never got an answer....how long until they sold out the last batch and at what price? Because I don't think they sold out immediately. Did youmsay they were at 2250? Or 2000$? Also, do you guys think they'll hang around a bit? So yall got me from selling my 72 box to maybe buying more vintage and ripping them, ugh. Looking back I paid steve $1600 per 75 mini-box 18 months ago. Thx, please keep the discussion going. Learning a lot
1954, Interesting read...one of your previous posts. So during the financial/economic collapse, steve was out there buying up vintage, unopened material? Smart business man. I def believe it. But my point is that someone with steves buying power was out buying when prices started to decline then there's your answer, somewhat. To relate it to stocks, steve is essentially putting in/creating the floor in unopened prices. I've said a couple times that I'm def a buyer at a 15-20% decline, which Im not sure we'll see. As are other buyers. But if someone with bbce's buying power steps in then I really don't see a significant decline coming. You can see this every time steve puts up anything vintage unopened on his site, it's gone before the word has completely gotten out. Thx 1954, topps, dpeck, grote, Paul et al...now I'm more confused than ever ..you guys got me going from a seller to maybe a buyer..maybe
As of 2:30pm CST, the 1989 Upper Deck Baseball Low Number Boxes have sold out! There are still about half the 1975 Topps Mini Baseball Wax Boxes left, and Steve has also put up some other stuff, like Fleer and Topps Baseball Vending Cases and Boxes, 1987 Topps Football Wax Boxes, etc.
<< <i>Actual supply doesn't decrease because someone buys and holds it. Supply decreases when the product is destroyed, er, opened. >>
UNLESS buyer has no intention of selling at any price, in that case supply is no longer there. It has already been stated that there is supply out there that is off the market.
It's what is being sold/exchanged on the market that determines supply and demand. Try the "actual" supply argument with someone selling a 1960's box (or a 1972 box) they will laugh you out the door.
Yes, someday some huge collector will die or decide to dump a large amount of unopened onto the market, OR he will leave it to his heirs and they may or may not sell it off. With that scenario, and the fact that we don't know production numbers, or what is actually stashed in collections, it is probably going to be a sellers market for some time. Excluding some MAJOR economic downturn.
How about a scan of the bad boy? Any reason you are not showing us?
I did say PLEASE!
2013,14 and 15 Certificate Award Winner Harmon Killebrew Master Set and Master Topps Set
<< <i>Actual supply doesn't decrease because someone buys and holds it. Supply decreases when the product is destroyed, er, opened. >>
UNLESS buyer has no intention of selling at any price, in that case supply is no longer there. It has already been stated that there is supply out there that is off the market.
It's what is being sold/exchanged on the market that determines supply and demand. >>
Hey Joe, I just learned to scan one card which was a fiasco if you see that thread. How the heck would you scan a three dimensional box? It's a very nice pristine box. No cardboard wrinkles or stress marks. Cellophane wrap. I dont even like to handle it. If I could scan a box why wouldn't I? I'm not actively looking for buyers if your insinuating that I maybe scamming. In fact have turned down very generous offers while I think. Ive been very open and honest that now im leaning towards holding it and am in no hurry. Hence going with an AH. And obv before I exchange 4 figures i would def send pics. If I can figure out how to post a pic I'll do that. Thanks
Opening a photo bucket account blah blah is a headache. I'm very good at my job but not exactly tech savvy. I'll tell you what, Maurice or Joe, if you PM me your phone number I'll text you a picture then you can post it. Then erase my phone number. Ha.
Actually, if 1954 wants to do that I'll do it. I'm trusting him Fair enough?
Everyone else, what's the downside to posting a pic? Maybe the person who sold it to me doesn't want to be identified. You guys are sharp so there may be a way to do that. Hmm
Can we now het back to the discussion? I'm loving it. Very very informative. Thanks for your time
<< <i>Opening a photo bucket account blah blah is a headache. I'm very good at my job but not exactly tech savvy. I'll tell you what, Maurice or Joe, if you PM me your phone number I'll text you a picture then you can post it. Then erase my phone number. Ha.
Actually, if 1954 wants to do that I'll do it. I'm trusting him Fair enough?
Everyone else, what's the downside to posting a pic? Maybe the person who sold it to me doesn't want to be identified. You guys are sharp so there may be a way to do that. Hmm >>
I don't know why you need someone to hold your hand. You already have a photobucket account, and you apparently know how to post images here.
Supply is supply. Just because it is "locked up" doesn't mean it doesn't exist. Keep in mind you need buyers and once a person has their fill they are no longer a buyer. Determining the number that turns the appetite of this person to a non buyer and a holder or a potential seller is obviously unknown. With the common practice of hoarding that number could be quite large.
Just a few months ago Donald Spence retired a ton of sets. You could have said his low pop cards were locked up in a collection and would never be sold so a Pop 3 for example might only be a Pop 2 since he owned it. Sometimes things change for whatever reason.
There are any number of life events that can change one's collecting direction and banking on the idea that none of these owners ever plan to sell even if that is their intention today to me is not wise. Perhaps the odds are firmly tilted in this direction but certainly it is not a guarantee.
I think there is merit to the idea of a floor based on salvage value. The problem with this is that number is a moving target so staying on top of current prices would be a must. If a box generally can yield for example a minimum of $300 worth of cards and perhaps much more then it is logical that this has an intrinsic value in this range and buyers realize they can get their money out of it at this price and are willing to pay this every time. Once you move far north of the salvage value you are now tilting the value proposition to its sealed state and where the speculative nature of the discussion kicks in.
I have given some more thought to the sealed concept after thinking of the value placed on LJN WWF figures for example that are still what they call mint on the card. If you look at figure prices you will see a huge spread between a mint figure and one that is still in the package. In many cases the nicer the package the higher the value and they actually grade them and those can command an even greater premium. Clearly there is value placed on the fact that it is still in its original sealed state. To me drawing the comparison to sealed packs with stars on them would be a better one in this example because with the figures you know who you are getting and with a sealed pack and a star on top or bottom you also know what you are getting. With a sealed wax pack or box you only know the general pool of whom might be in there and thus unless there is an inordinately low number of sealed packs that exist once again a discounting method should be used.
There has clearly been a large shift in the demand curve for sealed cards. Because the supply curve has not been able to shift with it comes the explosion in price. Trading cards have elastic demand and in theory the quantity demanded should decline a greater percentage then the increase in price. This is not occurring at the moment because of the investment piece. They are being viewed as an asset class and if the expectation of higher prices exist buyers are willing to continue paying higher prices until there is a large increase in supply. We could ask 100 collectors this question and get many different answers. Is there any item in your collection you wouldn't sell? Some will say an important card from their childhood, others will say a self submitted card, and others will say any item is for sale if the price is right. I have to think we are approaching levels in pricing where some may say I am willing to hit the bid the price is right.
This is the 64,000 question as they say. At what point has an asset appreciated enough to where you say sold.
Everyone has a number in which they would sell unless you have everything and money is not an issue. DPeck you sound like a very intelligent guy and from the posts that you pen I would think you have something to do with stocks or financial advisor type industry. Saying that, I want you to think of the most wealthiest client you can come up with. Perhaps the guy you are thinking of drives a $200K car and makes a million dollars a year. This guy has it all - the big house, the awesome cars and the wife that is smoking. Do you think that if by chance an unopened case of 1977 Topps were to come up for auction that he would be bitting his fingernails on whether to put in the next bid at $41,000? Or perhaps a box of 1969 Topps baseball came up do you really think he is not going to make a run for it? I am not even talking about the guys that make a million dollars a week. Certain items in the unopened market are just plain rare and there are many who would lay down the money for it.
Here are my thought as to the unopened market.
1971 and older is almost extinct* 1977-1972 very rare and desirable pieces that command a premium.* People are still ripping but they have larger stones than I do. 1975 Topps is the only year in the 1970's that you see on a consistant basis but it is also the most popular set according to Set Registry. 1981-1978 is available for purchase fairly regularly but is becoming harder to find. Still affordable to rip so product is reducing by the hour. 1986-1982 is available for purchase but this is a market that has really taken off due to rips and hold backs. I believe there is much more around from this time frame but collectors are enjoying the hobby and not worrying about it. 1987 to present- not familiar with this time frame but I would think the market is reducing pretty strongly due to cheap rip costs and hitting the big card.
* We can have another financial meltdown and these boxes are recession proof.
Just my thoughts now everyone can slam me on it.
Looking for high grade rookie cards and unopened boxes/cases
No matter what your perspective and position on unopened is, the fact that this sector of the hobby continues to generate so much discussion and interest, even among those who aren't even unopened collectors, underscores its lasting appeal.
One thing is clear--any pre-1980 unopened product continues to be snapped up by collectors as soon as it becomes available, and usually at very impressive prices. You'd think that by now that at least a few of these "hoarders" would be releasing product into the marketplace to capitalize on these record-setting prices, but we haven't really seen this, with the exception of a few cases being consigned by Fritsch. Perhaps the hoarders have hidden the unopened cases so well, they've forgotten where they are.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Maurice, easy there. I got a lot going on than messing with that. tried to transfer a pic from my phone and says i need am app or an update. Since your such a great detective ans preoccupied with this, then figure out how to upload the pic from my PC. Or activate the camara from my tablet. There's a challenge for you.
FBI? You're right. A little bit too intrusive if you ask me. Im getting bad vibes. What's the big deal? It's a box. Gee whiz. I said I have a photo bucket account which i used once to post a card. I told you that so it wasn't very difficult to find. Btw, My very first submission. And like I said previously, what's my ulterior motive? I in no way have solicited anyone and have turned down offers. I was just asking opinions from this group who have an unbelievable wealth of knowledge in this particular universe.
I would not be at all surprised if Maurice picked up a couple of Steve's new mini wax box offerings this weekend.
It's obvious that he is an investigator of sorts and probably did some intense due diligence to find out Steve has sold half the new wax boxes already!
1954...I agree with you. That theoretical guy you mentioned, his line of thinking in going for the 41k box is that there is a floor in it's price. Say I meet the def of that guy, 41k is still a lot of money to me regardless. But that fact that I, at worst would sustain a 5-10% loss is somewhat comforting if I were to purchase it. Also, agree that don't even see that scenario. I think at worst it's break even with pre-75 material. If I were to incur that loss I still think if i were to hold it for a couple years that I'd be back to even.
<< <i>Everyone has a number in which they would sell unless you have everything and money is not an issue. DPeck you sound like a very intelligent guy and from the posts that you pen I would think you have something to do with stocks or financial advisor type industry. Saying that, I want you to think of the most wealthiest client you can come up with. Perhaps the guy you are thinking of drives a $200K car and makes a million dollars a year. This guy has it all - the big house, the awesome cars and the wife that is smoking. Do you think that if by chance an unopened case of 1977 Topps were to come up for auction that he would be bitting his fingernails on whether to put in the next bid at $41,000? Or perhaps a box of 1969 Topps baseball came up do you really think he is not going to make a run for it? I am not even talking about the guys that make a million dollars a week. Certain items in the unopened market are just plain rare and there are many who would lay down the money for it.
Here are my thought as to the unopened market.
1971 and older is almost extinct* 1977-1972 very rare and desirable pieces that command a premium.* People are still ripping but they have larger stones than I do. 1975 Topps is the only year in the 1970's that you see on a consistant basis but it is also the most popular set according to Set Registry. 1981-1978 is available for purchase fairly regularly but is becoming harder to find. Still affordable to rip so product is reducing by the hour. 1986-1982 is available for purchase but this is a market that has really taken off due to rips and hold backs. I believe there is much more around from this time frame but collectors are enjoying the hobby and not worrying about it. 1987 to present- not familiar with this time frame but I would think the market is reducing pretty strongly due to cheap rip costs and hitting the big card.
* We can have another financial meltdown and these boxes are recession proof.
Just my thoughts now everyone can slam me on it. >>
Yes I am in finance.
I understand this argument and no I don't think they would be biting their nails. Quite frankly the higher the price the more they might want to win.
This is a fun topic and I have enjoyed the discussion and hope to read further responses.
2. Using your phone, email the pictures to yourself. You said you know how to attach a picture to a text message so I'm sure you also know how to attach a picture to an email.
3. Using your home computer, open the email(s) you sent to yourself. Save the pictures to your computer's hard drive.
4. Go to photobucket and upload the pictures from your computer's hard drive.
5. Come back here and post the pictures that you now have on photobucket.
If you need further assistance, please ask aconte.
Comments
<< <i>
<< <i> I find it very troubling that the notion of sealed is trumping the break up value by such a large margin. >>
I don't see where this comes from? I've seen statements like this several times in the different unopened discussions and it seems to be a common sentiment that box/case prices are becoming more than the potential value inside. If anyone really believes this, please give me an example of a box that is priced so high that it is not possible to recoup your investment…in most cases, all it takes is a high grade star card or high grade low pop. >>
A box of 1979 Topps baseball sold for $1,014.95 on November 5th.
You have less then a 5% chance of pulling a high grade Ozzie Smith when you use the cards that have been graded and in reality it is much smaller because so many are off centered they would never get sent in.
I think if you busted this box on average at this price you would lose. I am sure there are a few of these boxes that might contain amazing cards but it is not the norm and recouping the purchase price will not be attainable.
<< <i>So are buyers buying to speculate, holding? Or do you think the buyer is ripping for the Ozzie? >>
Buying to hold with the expectation of ever rising prices. The math is fairly easy for most and you hear repeatedly on this board not to open it at that price for most boxes.
This is speculation in its truest form.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i> I find it very troubling that the notion of sealed is trumping the break up value by such a large margin. >>
I don't see where this comes from? I've seen statements like this several times in the different unopened discussions and it seems to be a common sentiment that box/case prices are becoming more than the potential value inside. If anyone really believes this, please give me an example of a box that is priced so high that it is not possible to recoup your investment…in most cases, all it takes is a high grade star card or high grade low pop. >>
A box of 1979 Topps baseball sold for $1,014.95 on November 5th.
You have less then a 5% chance of pulling a high grade Ozzie Smith when you use the cards that have been graded and in reality it is much smaller because so many are off centered they would never get sent in.
I think if you busted this box on average at this price you would lose. I am sure there are a few of these boxes that might contain amazing cards but it is not the norm and recouping the purchase price will not be attainable. >>
You are missing the point--unopened collectors primarily collect unopened product not because they expect to pull a PSA 9 Ozzie Smith RC but because the possibility is there if they decide to rip a box, and the vast majority of true unopened collectors don't plan on ripping that box.
Even so, the value of that Ozzie card is 3x as much as it was two years ago, so the value of a 79 wax box doubling over that time frame is not unrealistic, either. I would say that the likelihood of an Ozzie Smith RC in PSA 9 grade maintaining a value of $900 is no more likely as that 79 wax box mainting a value of $900.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i> I find it very troubling that the notion of sealed is trumping the break up value by such a large margin. >>
I don't see where this comes from? I've seen statements like this several times in the different unopened discussions and it seems to be a common sentiment that box/case prices are becoming more than the potential value inside. If anyone really believes this, please give me an example of a box that is priced so high that it is not possible to recoup your investment…in most cases, all it takes is a high grade star card or high grade low pop. >>
A box of 1979 Topps baseball sold for $1,014.95 on November 5th.
You have less then a 5% chance of pulling a high grade Ozzie Smith when you use the cards that have been graded and in reality it is much smaller because so many are off centered they would never get sent in.
I think if you busted this box on average at this price you would lose. I am sure there are a few of these boxes that might contain amazing cards but it is not the norm and recouping the purchase price will not be attainable. >>
You are missing the point--unopened collectors primarily collect unopened product not because they expect to pull a PSA 9 Ozzie Smith RC but because the possibility is there if they decide to rip a box, and the vast majority of true unopened collectors don't plan on ripping that box.
Even so, the value of that Ozzie card is 3x as much as it was two years ago, so the value of a 79 wax box doubling over that time frame is not unrealistic, either. >>
I am not missing any point. It is clear that most boxes that are purchased there is no intent to open.
<< <i>Buying to hold with the expectation of ever rising prices. The math is fairly easy for most and you hear repeatedly on this board not to open it at that price for most boxes.
This is speculation in its truest form. >>
Exactly. At these price levels, there are no end users.
History has shown that any market that has no end users will always follow the same path. Hype, spin and manipulation will only serve to prolong the inevitable.
That much I will agree with you on. The value of unopened for unopened collectors has always been greater than the sum of its parts. That said, there's nothing like the occasional rip!
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
As I stated before, I do not collect unopened, but I have been collecting for 25 years or so, certain items that were at one time if not plentiful were at least obtainable. This is no longer the case.
The OP is talking about a 1972 box of high numbered cards (by the way, how about a scan?), these are not even comparable to 1975 product (especially minis) that was hoarded and has now become very expensive, although still comes up once in a while.
Seems to me unopened from the 50's to late 60's is gone. From late 60's to early 70's either gone, or extremely expensive at least in baseball. Fritsch may have some, I didn't bother to look at his site, but I get most of the auction house catalogs, when do you ever see a 1962 or a 1968 wax box for sale?
In order to affect the market for early 1970's unopened, there would have to be an EXTREMELY large number of boxes come onto the market. Old stuff like that would just be absorbed.
Now if you want to talk about 1984 Donruss, that's a different matter.
But I'm enjoying this conversation. A lot of food for thought.
I agree with a lot. But following some of the reasoning...no longer is anyone gonna rip 79 for the Ozzie because it's cost prohibitive? Just throwing it out there. Just resubs?
And along the lines of joebonzai, I don't have 20 consecutive yrs in unopened. That said I havemt really seen anything from the 60's....Soooo
If a box of 63,65 or say 68 came up what price does it reach? I don't think there are comps to compare it to, not recent ones. So in a sense it has broken thru and really no limit, in a sense. Sorry, so what price would one of those boxes go for? Wow
Also, if there are so many hoarders of vintage material waiting for a maximal price point, wouldn't you think one or two of them would have released a 60's box?
I am a set collector but unopened material is a complete different animal than the player collector or set builder. There is nothing wrong with doing both or only doing one but who does not enjoy holding a box of 1975 Topps and wondering what was in the box or where has this box been? I personally don't think much material from 1977 Topps and older exists. Call me crazy but that is my opinion.
<< <i> The only way the unopened market takes a tumble is if you had every collector sell off their material in a week span. That will never happen. If a major unopened collector were to sell off his entire inventory he could do it in 45 minutes and get top value. There are more buyers of this than the product that is available. . >>
Correct me if I am wrong, but:
1.) Isn't the number of collectors of unopened a fluid number...that is say there are 1000 today...might there not be 500 tommorow. Or 2000? And tying into that...
2.) Hasn't unopened product(and really the sports card market in general) tended to tumble each time there was an economic downturn?
<< <i> That said I havemt really seen anything from the 60's....Soooo If a box of 63,65 or say 68 came up what price does it reach? I don't think there are comps to compare it to, not recent ones. So in a sense it has broken thru and really no limit, in a sense. Sorry, so what price would one of those boxes go for? Wow >>
If you had a box of 1964 Topps the price would depend on condition of course but if it was in perfect condition you could get the dollar amount you were looking for. If the box was damaged and had a torn lid you could still get the dollar amount you were looking for. You can ask what you want all day long and there would be a ton of activity. BBCE sold five very rare boxes in less than a day on the floor of the National. Not sure what he was asking on the boxes on that day he showed them but I know what they sold for. Steve has a client list for every year and as DPeck said as a collector you are forced to make a quick move to buy it. If you pass someone is right behind ready to buy.
Steeler I will PM you with some information.
Shane
<< <i>
<< <i> The only way the unopened market takes a tumble is if you had every collector sell off their material in a week span. That will never happen. If a major unopened collector were to sell off his entire inventory he could do it in 45 minutes and get top value. There are more buyers of this than the product that is available. . >>
Correct me if I am wrong, but:
1.) Isn't the number of collectors of unopened a fluid number...that is say there are 1000 today...might there not be 500 tommorow. Or 2000? And tying into that...
2.) Hasn't unopened product(and really the sports card market in general) tended to tumble each time there was an economic downturn? >>
1.) Absolutely correct, however at this time it APPEARS that the number of buyers is growing as the supply shrinks, these two factors TOGETHER are causing the rapid rise in prices.
2.) Most everything is affected by a severe economic downturn, so I don't really see your point, In the case of a economic disaster, guns and food might be the only valuable commodities. LOL
Of course no one KNOWS what will happen tomorrow, it's all speculation. The fact of the matter is that time goes on and items just become unavailable.
I am quite interested in the next big unopened find, just to see what happens when there are some boxes to fight over!
I would still love to see a scan of the box, please!
Yes the card market took a major beating when the economy went south. People could not sell sets and they could not sell PSA graded cards without losing their shirt. If everyone will think back this is really when we began to see Ebay turn into a BIN field and not an auction field. However, the unopened material stayed pretty strong over that time although fewer people were actively buying- pricing never tanked. Speaking from 1978-present I noticed the unopened market slow down a little and I believe this is when BBCE really had the opportunity to restock his inventory. Let's just say that the unopened market went cold for those down years and BBCE loaded up from all of those desperate collectors who wanted out/needed money. His whole inventory has been depleted since August. So either the downturn in the economy never affected the unopened market or all of the unopened material that was heavily discounted for three years Steve bought up for pennies on the dollar. When the economy became whole, Steve became a millionaire and sold through it all in eight months. Only Steve can tell us what happened.
<< <i>Great discussion we have here. The collectors I know who buy unopened material are ripping it for the pure enjoyment. Granted, those boxes are from 1978-1987 because they are not at that crazy pack price of $100. Saying this I believe boxes selling for $4000+ are most likely being kept unopened. I would not want to destroy an unopened box of 1976 Topps because I think that is a box that is rarely seen. However, I would buy a couple of packs from a group rip at $100 a pack if that came available from BBCE. Majority of the collectors have a ceiling to what amount is too expensive for their budget to rip. Collectors are not EVER going to stop opening packs. I don't care if you collect 1953 Bowman Color cards you collect because you started opening up $.25 cent packs at the local grocery store back in 1985. The thrill of opening, the hunt for the best card, the gamble of hitting the perfect 10 or reliving the days of busting packs with dad will always be there. DPeck brings up some great points but how anyone could compare this hobby to stocks or the housing market is completely misguided. Baseball cards vs. the housing market have a common interest of ZERO. The only way the unopened market takes a tumble is if you had every collector sell off their material in a week span. That will never happen. If a major unopened collector were to sell off his entire inventory he could do it in 45 minutes and get top value. There are more buyers of this than the product that is available. For those who are leary about this go test the waters. Many who speak against this are those collectors who don't have the product or are disappointed that they opened up the boxes that they did have.
I am a set collector but unopened material is a complete different animal than the player collector or set builder. There is nothing wrong with doing both or only doing one but who does not enjoy holding a box of 1975 Topps and wondering what was in the box or where has this box been? I personally don't think much material from 1977 Topps and older exists. Call me crazy but that is my opinion. >>
When comparing packs or boxes to stocks I am just making the point that if you try and look at the valuation objectively like you can with a price to earnings ratio the prices are expensive. Perhaps a price per card is better metric that would establish this. If a box has tripled in price which some have then obviously your price per card has too and thus your break even point is that much more difficult to obtain.
There are quite a few differences between cards and stocks but one thing is very similar. A small percentage of the outstanding shares of stock trade on a daily basis and that is how people value their holdings. There are plenty of stocks that are liquid and plenty that are not. If you own a thinly traded security and own a large percentage of the shares it is not realistic to assume you could liquidate your holdings quickly with no impact on the market. With cards everyone who owns a box of said year is using a recent selling price as the value they would carry that asset at. Because there are no derivatives or ways to create artificial supply such as short selling you obviously can't compare the two assets classes completely. But do keep in mind market forces drive both.
The comparison to real estate is one that you can easily make if you were to compare ocean front property in say CA. The same arguments as to why it should go up exist all though you can't get the same utility out of cards obviously. Don't you remember the argument that land only goes us because they aren't making any more? I certainly do. My comparison to real estate was more that there was a time when ownership rates exceeded rental rates and although this defied the long term history of the market there was no shortage of people suggesting it was a new paradigm. With cards I think we are seeing a similar argument being made as the potential contents are no longer correlated with the purchase price at all in most cases.
What will be interesting is to see when the coming group breaks take place is how many packs get opened. Some buy them to rip, others to hoard or get graded and others to flip at a future price but as the prices have exploded I have to think more get kept sealed and those same packs represent potential future supply.
<< <i>What will be interesting is to see when the coming group breaks take place is how many packs get opened. Some buy them to rip, others to hoard or get graded and others to flip at a future price but as the prices have exploded I have to think more get kept sealed and those same packs represent potential future supply. >>
Regardless if people keep the packs unopened or rips them wouldn't the supply of unopened boxes decrease? The supply of cases decrease because collectors want to have an unopened box. The supply of unopened boxes decrease because collectors want the perfect conditioned pack. Lastly the supply of packs decrease because people want to hit a gem mint star. Every minute of the day the unopened material is decreasing rapidly.
<< <i>Good point DPeck on many accounts.
<< <i>What will be interesting is to see when the coming group breaks take place is how many packs get opened. Some buy them to rip, others to hoard or get graded and others to flip at a future price but as the prices have exploded I have to think more get kept sealed and those same packs represent potential future supply. >>
Regardless if people keep the packs unopened or rips them wouldn't the supply of unopened boxes decrease? The supply of cases decrease because collectors want to have an unopened box. The supply of unopened boxes decrease because collectors want the perfect conditioned pack. Lastly the supply of packs decrease because people want to hit a gem mint star. Every minute of the day the unopened material is decreasing rapidly. >>
Absolutely, even if very few are getting ripped there is a segment of the hobby that will rip a pack even if the odds are WAY against getting that mint HOFer and hitting the jackpot.
I think a lot of "casual" collectors have decided to buy unopened, similar to late 80's when people who generally didn't buy packs/boxes/cases started buying like crazy.
That's why you can't really compare this to the housing market or other things like the stock market, the supply is dwindling and within that the items are being "destroyed" when they are ripped.
Last I noticed when the housing market is healthy they start building homes like mad.
<< <i>I think a lot of "casual" collectors have decided to buy unopened....... >>
this would be a good place to identify where the groundswell began, and how these buyers continue to feed on product which entered the market through BBCE.
until recently, there was really no acceptable pedigree included with unopened product on ebay, but suddenly it seems like you can enter a group break or just buy directly and make a profit overnight.
that can't last, can it?
<< <i>Good point DPeck on many accounts.
<< <i>What will be interesting is to see when the coming group breaks take place is how many packs get opened. Some buy them to rip, others to hoard or get graded and others to flip at a future price but as the prices have exploded I have to think more get kept sealed and those same packs represent potential future supply. >>
Regardless if people keep the packs unopened or rips them wouldn't the supply of unopened boxes decrease? The supply of cases decrease because collectors want to have an unopened box. The supply of unopened boxes decrease because collectors want the perfect conditioned pack. Lastly the supply of packs decrease because people want to hit a gem mint star. Every minute of the day the unopened material is decreasing rapidly. >>
I have a question on this. If I buy packs for example from a group break and essentially accumulate enough to fill a box and then place them in a box from that set can I then show it to Steve and have him authenticate it and wrap it?
<< <i>
<< <i>Good point DPeck on many accounts.
<< <i>What will be interesting is to see when the coming group breaks take place is how many packs get opened. Some buy them to rip, others to hoard or get graded and others to flip at a future price but as the prices have exploded I have to think more get kept sealed and those same packs represent potential future supply. >>
Regardless if people keep the packs unopened or rips them wouldn't the supply of unopened boxes decrease? The supply of cases decrease because collectors want to have an unopened box. The supply of unopened boxes decrease because collectors want the perfect conditioned pack. Lastly the supply of packs decrease because people want to hit a gem mint star. Every minute of the day the unopened material is decreasing rapidly. >>
I have a question on this. If I buy packs for example from a group break and essentially accumulate enough to fill a box and then place them in a box from that set can I then show it to Steve and have him authenticate it and wrap it? >>
I sure hope not. A legitimate full box is much more desirable than one that is pieced together. You can usually have a pretty good sense if the box is real based on similar wrapping of the packs, although if a couple packs were pulled and replaced I don't have much faith it would be caught....
At the very least, if this is going to be done, any hidden condition issues should be noted and identified by Steve.
I would think that Steve would be happy to sell you a box without the wrap if you wanted it that way. I am not a pack collector so I would be pretty annoyed with the tear in the wrapper as well.
legitimate fresh box but when put together.
aconte
<< <i>looks like BBCE just obtained more pristine 1975 Topps Mini Wax boxes >>
Shocking news.
<< <i>
<< <i>looks like BBCE just obtained more pristine 1975 Topps Mini Wax boxes >>
Shocking news.
>>
+1
But good to see. And the price has not gone up either which is nice.
aconte
<< <i>I have some fresh unopened 1975 mini that are wrapped by Steve. I also have a box I am slowly taking my time and building. I would not be inclined to get that wrapped since it is not a
legitimate fresh box but when put together.
aconte >>
Would Steve authenticate it and wrap it for a fee if you asked him to? It would seem to be that if the packs look legit there is no way he would know it was hand collated.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>Unless the box is from a sealed case, there is no way to know for certain if it was put together although there are some things to look for especially when it comes to wax. >>
Yes, with every legit box I've ever owned, you can see when comparing the packs that they're all wrapped in a similar way when it comes to any printing errors on the wrapper, centering of the wrapper, etc. Also, if the packs have ad variations, there will usually be an even breakdown of the different variations within a legit box.
Also, do you guys think they'll hang around a bit? So yall got me from selling my 72 box to maybe buying more vintage and ripping them, ugh.
Looking back I paid steve $1600 per 75 mini-box 18 months ago.
Thx, please keep the discussion going. Learning a lot
Interesting read...one of your previous posts. So during the financial/economic collapse, steve was out there buying up vintage, unopened material? Smart business man. I def believe it. But my point is that someone with steves buying power was out buying when prices started to decline then there's your answer, somewhat. To relate it to stocks, steve is essentially putting in/creating the floor in unopened prices. I've said a couple times that I'm def a buyer at a 15-20% decline, which Im not sure we'll see. As are other buyers. But if someone with bbce's buying power steps in then I really don't see a significant decline coming. You can see this every time steve puts up anything vintage unopened on his site, it's gone before the word has completely gotten out.
Thx 1954, topps, dpeck, grote, Paul et al...now I'm more confused than ever
As of 2:30pm CST, the 1989 Upper Deck Baseball Low Number Boxes have sold out! There are still about half the 1975 Topps Mini Baseball Wax Boxes left, and Steve has also put up some other stuff, like Fleer and Topps Baseball Vending Cases and Boxes, 1987 Topps Football Wax Boxes, etc.
<< <i>Actual supply doesn't decrease because someone buys and holds it. Supply decreases when the product is destroyed, er, opened. >>
UNLESS buyer has no intention of selling at any price, in that case supply is no longer there. It has already been stated that there is supply out there that is off the market.
It's what is being sold/exchanged on the market that determines supply and demand. Try the "actual" supply argument with someone selling a 1960's box (or a 1972 box) they will laugh you out the door.
Yes, someday some huge collector will die or decide to dump a large amount of unopened onto the market, OR he will leave it to his heirs and they may or may not sell it off. With that scenario, and the fact that we don't know production numbers, or what is actually stashed in collections, it is probably going to be a sellers market for some time. Excluding some MAJOR economic downturn.
How about a scan of the bad boy? Any reason you are not showing us?
I did say PLEASE!
<< <i>
<< <i>Actual supply doesn't decrease because someone buys and holds it. Supply decreases when the product is destroyed, er, opened. >>
UNLESS buyer has no intention of selling at any price, in that case supply is no longer there. It has already been stated that there is supply out there that is off the market.
It's what is being sold/exchanged on the market that determines supply and demand. >>
Nonsense.
I just learned to scan one card which was a fiasco if you see that thread. How the heck would you scan a three dimensional box? It's a very nice pristine box. No cardboard wrinkles or stress marks. Cellophane wrap. I dont even like to handle it. If I could scan a box why wouldn't I? I'm not actively looking for buyers if your insinuating that I maybe scamming. In fact have turned down very generous offers while I think. Ive been very open and honest that now im leaning towards holding it and am in no hurry. Hence going with an AH. And obv before I exchange 4 figures i would def send pics.
If I can figure out how to post a pic I'll do that.
Thanks
Actually now that I think about it, it's the quality of the 75 mini boxes I've purchased from bbce. Very very nice condition.
Thanks
<< <i>I just learned to scan one card which was a fiasco if you see that thread. How the heck would you scan a three dimensional box? >>
Take some pictures with your phone.
I'll tell you what, Maurice or Joe, if you PM me your phone number I'll text you a picture then you can post it. Then erase my phone number. Ha.
Actually, if 1954 wants to do that I'll do it. I'm trusting him
Fair enough?
Everyone else, what's the downside to posting a pic? Maybe the person who sold it to me doesn't want to be identified. You guys are sharp so there may be a way to do that. Hmm
Can we now het back to the discussion? I'm loving it. Very very informative. Thanks for your time
<< <i>Opening a photo bucket account blah blah is a headache. I'm very good at my job but not exactly tech savvy.
I'll tell you what, Maurice or Joe, if you PM me your phone number I'll text you a picture then you can post it. Then erase my phone number. Ha.
Actually, if 1954 wants to do that I'll do it. I'm trusting him
Fair enough?
Everyone else, what's the downside to posting a pic? Maybe the person who sold it to me doesn't want to be identified. You guys are sharp so there may be a way to do that. Hmm >>
I don't know why you need someone to hold your hand. You already have a photobucket account, and you apparently know how to post images here.
http://forums.collectors.com/messageview.cfm?catid=11&threadid=899352
Supply is supply. Just because it is "locked up" doesn't mean it doesn't exist. Keep in mind you need buyers and once a person has their fill they are no longer a buyer. Determining the number that turns the appetite of this person to a non buyer and a holder or a potential seller is obviously unknown. With the common practice of hoarding that number could be quite large.
Just a few months ago Donald Spence retired a ton of sets. You could have said his low pop cards were locked up in a collection and would never be sold so a Pop 3 for example might only be a Pop 2 since he owned it. Sometimes things change for whatever reason.
There are any number of life events that can change one's collecting direction and banking on the idea that none of these owners ever plan to sell even if that is their intention today to me is not wise. Perhaps the odds are firmly tilted in this direction but certainly it is not a guarantee.
I think there is merit to the idea of a floor based on salvage value. The problem with this is that number is a moving target so staying on top of current prices would be a must. If a box generally can yield for example a minimum of $300 worth of cards and perhaps much more then it is logical that this has an intrinsic value in this range and buyers realize they can get their money out of it at this price and are willing to pay this every time. Once you move far north of the salvage value you are now tilting the value proposition to its sealed state and where the speculative nature of the discussion kicks in.
I have given some more thought to the sealed concept after thinking of the value placed on LJN WWF figures for example that are still what they call mint on the card. If you look at figure prices you will see a huge spread between a mint figure and one that is still in the package. In many cases the nicer the package the higher the value and they actually grade them and those can command an even greater premium. Clearly there is value placed on the fact that it is still in its original sealed state. To me drawing the comparison to sealed packs with stars on them would be a better one in this example because with the figures you know who you are getting and with a sealed pack and a star on top or bottom you also know what you are getting. With a sealed wax pack or box you only know the general pool of whom might be in there and thus unless there is an inordinately low number of sealed packs that exist once again a discounting method should be used.
There has clearly been a large shift in the demand curve for sealed cards. Because the supply curve has not been able to shift with it comes the explosion in price. Trading cards have elastic demand and in theory the quantity demanded should decline a greater percentage then the increase in price. This is not occurring at the moment because of the investment piece. They are being viewed as an asset class and if the expectation of higher prices exist buyers are willing to continue paying higher prices until there is a large increase in supply. We could ask 100 collectors this question and get many different answers. Is there any item in your collection you wouldn't sell? Some will say an important card from their childhood, others will say a self submitted card, and others will say any item is for sale if the price is right. I have to think we are approaching levels in pricing where some may say I am willing to hit the bid the price is right.
This is the 64,000 question as they say. At what point has an asset appreciated enough to where you say sold.
Everyone has a number in which they would sell unless you have everything and money is not an issue. DPeck you sound like a very intelligent guy and from the posts that you pen I would think you have something to do with stocks or financial advisor type industry. Saying that, I want you to think of the most wealthiest client you can come up with. Perhaps the guy you are thinking of drives a $200K car and makes a million dollars a year. This guy has it all - the big house, the awesome cars and the wife that is smoking. Do you think that if by chance an unopened case of 1977 Topps were to come up for auction that he would be bitting his fingernails on whether to put in the next bid at $41,000? Or perhaps a box of 1969 Topps baseball came up do you really think he is not going to make a run for it? I am not even talking about the guys that make a million dollars a week. Certain items in the unopened market are just plain rare and there are many who would lay down the money for it.
Here are my thought as to the unopened market.
1971 and older is almost extinct*
1977-1972 very rare and desirable pieces that command a premium.* People are still ripping but they have larger stones than I do. 1975 Topps is the only year in the 1970's that you see on a consistant basis but it is also the most popular set according to Set Registry.
1981-1978 is available for purchase fairly regularly but is becoming harder to find. Still affordable to rip so product is reducing by the hour.
1986-1982 is available for purchase but this is a market that has really taken off due to rips and hold backs. I believe there is much more around from this time frame but collectors are enjoying the hobby and not worrying about it.
1987 to present- not familiar with this time frame but I would think the market is reducing pretty strongly due to cheap rip costs and hitting the big card.
* We can have another financial meltdown and these boxes are recession proof.
Just my thoughts now everyone can slam me on it.
One thing is clear--any pre-1980 unopened product continues to be snapped up by collectors as soon as it becomes available, and usually at very impressive prices. You'd think that by now that at least a few of these "hoarders" would be releasing product into the marketplace to capitalize on these record-setting prices, but we haven't really seen this, with the exception of a few cases being consigned by Fritsch. Perhaps the hoarders have hidden the unopened cases so well, they've forgotten where they are.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
FBI? You're right. A little bit too intrusive if you ask me. Im getting bad vibes. What's the big deal? It's a box. Gee whiz. I said I have a photo bucket account which i used once to post a card. I told you that so it wasn't very difficult to find. Btw, My very first submission. And like I said previously, what's my ulterior motive? I in no way have solicited anyone and have turned down offers. I was just asking opinions from this group who have an unbelievable wealth of knowledge in this particular universe.
Let's keep this informative and FUN please.
It's obvious that he is an investigator of sorts and probably did some intense due diligence to find out Steve has sold half the new wax boxes already!
aconte
<< <i>Everyone has a number in which they would sell unless you have everything and money is not an issue. DPeck you sound like a very intelligent guy and from the posts that you pen I would think you have something to do with stocks or financial advisor type industry. Saying that, I want you to think of the most wealthiest client you can come up with. Perhaps the guy you are thinking of drives a $200K car and makes a million dollars a year. This guy has it all - the big house, the awesome cars and the wife that is smoking. Do you think that if by chance an unopened case of 1977 Topps were to come up for auction that he would be bitting his fingernails on whether to put in the next bid at $41,000? Or perhaps a box of 1969 Topps baseball came up do you really think he is not going to make a run for it? I am not even talking about the guys that make a million dollars a week. Certain items in the unopened market are just plain rare and there are many who would lay down the money for it.
Here are my thought as to the unopened market.
1971 and older is almost extinct*
1977-1972 very rare and desirable pieces that command a premium.* People are still ripping but they have larger stones than I do. 1975 Topps is the only year in the 1970's that you see on a consistant basis but it is also the most popular set according to Set Registry.
1981-1978 is available for purchase fairly regularly but is becoming harder to find. Still affordable to rip so product is reducing by the hour.
1986-1982 is available for purchase but this is a market that has really taken off due to rips and hold backs. I believe there is much more around from this time frame but collectors are enjoying the hobby and not worrying about it.
1987 to present- not familiar with this time frame but I would think the market is reducing pretty strongly due to cheap rip costs and hitting the big card.
* We can have another financial meltdown and these boxes are recession proof.
Just my thoughts now everyone can slam me on it.
Yes I am in finance.
I understand this argument and no I don't think they would be biting their nails. Quite frankly the higher the price the more they might want to win.
This is a fun topic and I have enjoyed the discussion and hope to read further responses.
1. Take pictures of the 1972 box with your phone.
2. Using your phone, email the pictures to yourself. You said you know how to attach a picture to a text message so I'm sure you also know how to attach a picture to an email.
3. Using your home computer, open the email(s) you sent to yourself. Save the pictures to your computer's hard drive.
4. Go to photobucket and upload the pictures from your computer's hard drive.
5. Come back here and post the pictures that you now have on photobucket.
If you need further assistance, please ask aconte.
ON ITS WAY TO NEWPORT BEACH, CA 92658
aconte