"I just can't see collecting this "stuff" that is being cranked out by the millions yesterday."
Dimeman: I understand what you are saying as well. But, bear in mind, an 1838 No Drapery dime has roughly the same mintage as a 1970-D Half Dollar! Only difference is the top pop grade in the dime books at around $40,000 already while the top pop Kennedy books at around $5,000 (and is now 43 years old, not a day old any longer). As CK suggests, the 70-D in pop top grade might have some big time upside in the years ahead, especially considering as a general rule that "big" half dollars tend to sell for a great deal more than "small" dimes in the marketplace.
Wondercoin
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<< Grade your 70d kennedy. If it comes back ms67 you made $5000. Ms67+ and you can name your price. >>
I'll tell you why I don't do just this.
In 1970 there were about 60,000 really nice attractive '70-D half dollars. These just stood head and shoulders above most of the rest. No one was in the least interested. There weren't a dozen people who even looked at these sets and wanted to add a Gem to his collection. Col- lectors didn't think like that in those days. If they wanted a '70-D half, which was unlikely, they went to the corner coin shop and picked the mint set off the top. Some would send away to a wholesaler because they thought it was wrong to cut up a mint set even if it was a lot cheaper.
Over the years the number of surviving mint sets has just kept eroding away as the wholesalers cut them up for collectors and collectors cut them up. Around 1980 a few people started paying attention to quality but most just wanted a nice specimen for their collection. It was at this point that the attrition for nicer sets started going higher than attrition for typical sets and this has ac- celerated over the years.
At the current point in time a great percentage of those 60,000 coins are gone or degraded and their incidence in mint sets is far lower than the original 3% (probably ~.5%) and most of the mint sets are gone. In other words only some 25,000 nice specimens survive yet many of these don't even have a premium because they'd only grade MS-64 with the tight grading standards now in place. In other words demand is so puny that 25,000 coins dwarfs it.
Curiously 25,000 is probably fairly close to the number of '16-D dimes in existence and these start at about $300. Getting $15 for an MS-64 '70-D would be tough unless it's slabbed and it costs that much to slab it!!
It just seems that selling with demand at such low levels might not be a good plan. Yes, it's poss- ible that demand for high end coins could decrease but it seems impossible that demand for nice attractive '70-D half dollars won't ratchet much higher. People also need to realize MS-66 and 67 '70-D's are irreplaceable unless they want to pay thousands of dollars.
I suppose I just like owning this coin and believe we ain't seen nothing yet as far as prices go. I'm just still more a collector than a speculator and this could even still be true after prices go higher. Of course I'll have to sell off some of the excess in order to buy the rarities I've missed over the years. You'll get first refusal. **********************************************
CK: Thanks for that offer of first refusal. I would love to have a shot at buying some of your coins for sure.
I agree with nearly all of what you said (as usual). I came on the scene in 1983 with an interest in tucking away all the high end clad coins I could find. And, that included all the fresh 1970 mint sets I could find. And, I found plenty of them in the decades that followed, but, unfortunately, not plenty of 70-D half dollars grading over gem MS65. And, the "shot MS67" coins were few and far apart. I have owned 2 out of the 3 MS67's of this date that PCGS has graded over the last 25+ years, but I let one go years ago.
I personally agree with you that demand for these early clad pop tops will exceed supply in the years ahead. I don't blame you for not selling now.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
If you are trying to say that the 70-D will someday compare in price to the 16-D.......WHAT DRUGS ARE YOU ON!!!!!!
First of all the Kennedy halves will NEVER be as popular as the Mercury Dime. I am saying this as a collector.....not a dime man.
Second there will always be plenty of 70-D's to go around! There were 1.2 M I believe and ALL of those still survive and ALL are probably 63 or better.
I will admit that finding a 66 is very hard and a 67 is probably 10X as hard as 66. I will also admit that there will probably be people who will pay moon money for a 67.......but not me.
Mercs and Kennedy's are apples and oranges.....no comparsion.
Second, the 70-D in MS67 already "compares in price" to an XF-40 1916-D. And, if one found an MS68 Kennedy of that date, that would likely compare to an AU of the 1916-D. In both of those cases, I would personally take the 70-D Kennedy over the 16-D dime right now.
So, you keep on the hunt for an AU 1916-D dime and I will keep on the hunt for a 70-D Kennedy Half dollar that grades above MS67, and we'll both be very happy if we locate one!
Wondercoin
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Dimeman ... do you know what drives me even more nuts ....
spending 29 years on the hunt already and coming up empty on that monster gem MS67++ specimen!! How many more years can I do this for? It's easier to "pay up" at this point!
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
Dimeman reminds me of a guy a knew back in the lates 70's. He spent $30K on a very nice well restored Model A Coupe. At the time the car was worth what he paid for it, he enjoyed it and it made him happy which is all fine. At the same time I bought a 1971 SuperBird for $21K. The car was very nice so I overpaid for it at the time. So the guy gave me all kinds of crap about paying that much money for a ten year old used car. I would never get my money back. Poor quality car. Can't understand why anybody would pay more than $1500 for a used car.
Fast Forward to today the SuperBird is worth in excess of $100K. The Model A is worth about $20K if he can find somebody that still has a pulse that wants it.
Djm: Great story. And, that is why I did mention (with all due respect to Dimeman who I enjoyed a great dinner with at FUN in January) that in 14 years we have seen (10) collectors left who now have active registry sets in the 1837-1891 PCGS Seated Dimes, while we now have -18- active collectors in the Top 100 Modern set since it opened about 7 weeks ago! I also have -200- unique users already who have visited my Top 100 set since the time I registered it with Set Registry. The popularity of these modern coins (and 1971 Superbirds) can not be denied. Just as modern art is intensively popular now and we have seen a number of modern works already that have broken through the $100,000,000.00 and even the $150,000,000.00 price barrier!
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
Dimeman - I just looked for the first time. Congratulations on a wonderful set of dimes!
I understand your frustration when you see someone paying big $$$ for a condition rarity, especially a modern condition rarity. But, you need to understand, I just recently sold a 1916-D MS66+FB dime (that I had no interest in personally but I might have had great interest if I had a solid MS67FB specimen) and I would want to own that coin any day of the week instead of hundreds and hundreds of assorted dime dates in low(er) grades. We are on completely different ends of the spectrum with respect to our collecting habits. I generally want the very nicest quality coin I can afford for any date/denomination I desire to collect. You obviously much prefer collecting the largest quantity of dime dates you possibly can as opposed to just a handful of the very nicest dimes money can buy (at the same value). To each his own. I can see why someone paying big $$$ for a condition rarity might make little sense to you. Can you equally see why someone might never understand assembling a collection that includes hundreds of "widgets" (in addition to prize pieces).
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
I could not resist and add Top 100 registry to my sets as well just to tilt the scale in Wondercoin's "modern" direction However I will admit I'll never aim to complete the full set outside of "just bullion" entries of the set and I wish there was a "Top 100 bullion" entry. But then the debate would rage “what is a bullion”
In my eyes paying "moon money" for either dime or half dollar of underlying does not make sense - but it sure makes sense to DIMEMAN and Wondercoin and that is the beauty of the hobby. Although I will admit I would not try to acquire even bullion items above certain price point above melt.
The reason for me pointing this out that I think it is very unlikely there will be more than few others than Wondercoin who will try to assemble the full set whatever is legally available – in my mind it’s quite disjoined between non-bullion/bullion to meet a single goal
<< <i>If you are trying to say that the 70-D will someday compare in price to the 16-D.......WHAT DRUGS ARE YOU ON!!!!!!
First of all the Kennedy halves will NEVER be as popular as the Mercury Dime. I am saying this as a collector.....not a dime man.
Second there will always be plenty of 70-D's to go around! There were 1.2 M I believe and ALL of those still survive and ALL are probably 63 or better.
I will admit that finding a 66 is very hard and a 67 is probably 10X as hard as 66. I will also admit that there will probably be people who will pay moon money for a 67.......but not me.
Mercs and Kennedy's are apples and oranges.....no comparsion.
Just my ten cents! >>
Perhaps neither of us will live long enough to see it but mercury dimes are mostly collected by older collectors. Yes, they are a wonderful series with lots of interesting coins and are made of silver which is a must most baby boomers. But it's hardly natural for an old series like this to sim- pl7y dwarf the demand for a newer series. Baby boomers won't live forever. As we sell off our collections there will be millions of coins coming on the market and there isn't necessarily even going to a market at all for them. New collectors have been chased out of the hobby since 1965 by established collectors who say that clad is garbage and modern coins are uncollectible. Despite this "welcome" to the hobby there are still millions who are collecting moderns and many have gone on to collect classics, dark side, and even far side. These new collectors to a far higher de- gree than we boomers don't care about silver and will be collecting what catches their fancy and not what we think is valuable and desirable. There will not only be merc collections coming on the market in huge numbers over the next decade but these will continue for many years to come from "old time collections".
What won't be coming on the market over the next decades is moderns. This is a point that eludes many people but there aren't any "old time collections" of moderns and there won't be any for a vary long tiime. There are 25,000 '70-D gemmy halfs and 25,000 '16-D dimes right now but the at- trition on the '70-D is quite high and there will be a lot fewer each year until it comes into demand. How many '16-D dimes do you think get lost each year? 50? 100? Where there will be thousands coming on the market each year there will be no '70-D halfs coming on the market except the few that just happen to be in '70 mint set. This is several coins per year compared to thousands of the '16-D. Sure there are thousands of nice '70-D's that will come out of the woodwork if the price goes higher but the number is limited to the number in existence and the number of holders willing to sell.
I see no reason the price of the '70-D can't exceed the price of the '16-D. There's no demand now but if even a little demand develops there's no supply. All over the world there are moderns going up a thousand fold per year because people are discovering moderns weren't saved and usually are scarce. The apparent supply of the '70-D is extremely low because they are tied up here and there. You might believe demand can't materialize but if you do it's because you haven't been following the markets. One of the reasons people collect is nostalgia and there are lots of people, even those born in the '90's who have seen and dealt with moderns and half dollars. You might not be aware but they are selling tens of thousands of folders and albums for all kinds of moderns. Right now most of these collections will lack key dates like the '70-D or just have an ugly specimen waiting to be upgraded and many of these will be upgraded eventually. The potential demand is enormous even though current demand is puny. Much of this demand is unsophisticated and the collector has no idea of value or difficulty in obtaining it. This won't last because these collectors will learn.
Time has a way of changing everything and no change is ever more profound than demographic change.
Demographics drives everything from ice cream sales to antacid prices. The coin market will be totally different in the next decade and there's nothing to stop it and it's exceedingly difficult to predict what all these changes will be.
<< <i>If you are trying to say that the 70-D will someday compare in price to the 16-D.......WHAT DRUGS ARE YOU ON!!!!!!
First of all the Kennedy halves will NEVER be as popular as the Mercury Dime. I am saying this as a collector.....not a dime man.
Second there will always be plenty of 70-D's to go around! There were 1.2 M I believe and ALL of those still survive and ALL are probably 63 or better.
I will admit that finding a 66 is very hard and a 67 is probably 10X as hard as 66. I will also admit that there will probably be people who will pay moon money for a 67.......but not me.
Mercs and Kennedy's are apples and oranges.....no comparsion.
Just my ten cents! >>
Did I mention the '70-D has twice as much silver as the '16-D?
Ten or fifteen years ago, you could buy around a half dozen 16-D dimes in XF/AU with a 1975 NO S dime. Now, you can buy (70) or (75) 1916-D dimes with that 1975 NO S!!
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
Ten or fifteen years ago, you could buy around a half dozen 16-D dimes in XF/AU with a 1975 NO S dime. Now, you can buy (70) or (75) 1916-D dimes with that 1975 NO S!! >>
There are just so many really great coins in the world. A '16-D certainly is one of them and I can understand why anyone might hold it as the holy grail and this es- pecially applies to mercury dime collectors.
Many collectors just don't realize that all the great coins haven't even been discovered yet and this is exactly "Top 100 moderns" is all about. One can argue whether these are the most appropriate or desirable moderns but no one can argue that moderns aren't great and every year the market is telling us that there are a lot of moderns with increasing demand. We know this because across the board moderns tend to be fairly tough and they are generally very low priced. Just a little demand has a huge effect.
I just think of neat little coins like a bronze 1954 Indian 1 pice sitting in a dealers junk box a few years ago. No one would have even thought of buying it no matter how nice it was and how pristine. People don't buy such junk so most of it ends up as play money for kids or knocking around in poundage. But all of a sudden a small handful of people want it and the price goes to $125. Of course, I believe they'll find over time that this coin tended to tarnish, too, so it's even scarcer than the tiny demand suggests. It's such a tough coin I just haven't seen enough of them to know.
Moderns are a sort of terra incognita and no one knows what's scarce and what's common but if recent history is any guide then WYSIWYG. All those coins that aren't common are almost impossible. Coins like nice '70-D halfs are "common" compared to many moderns but no more common than a '16-D dime. It's really a lot f fun to be collecting in an area that is poorly known because there's so much to learn and many others haven't been there before you.
I think things like the hundred greatest moderns will blaze trails. They make an access point for people of all budgets since if you apply yourself you can get one of those nice '70-D's for $20 or less. It also shows the naysayers that there are lots of coins that have already appreciated a lot and do have real and serious demand.
I would like to contribute my observations on 1970-D AND 1969-D halves (and 68-D's too.)
I really like both dates in true MS-66/+ grades. 69-D halves are noticeably more scarce than 70-D's in MS66. In original rolls, the most likely MS66 prospects are the toned obverse-facing end-roll coins. These OBW rolls weren't always wrapped tightly and the inside coins tended to "rub" together adding surface marks that deny them the MS66 grade.
MS66 examples can be found in 1969 mint sets but they are few and far between, even much more so than 1970-D.
It's interesting to note the big difference in the quality of 69-D halves and 68-D 50c found in their respective mint sets. 1968 mint sets are regularly of high quality while 1969 sets tend to be mediocre. This is probably why an MS66 68-D 50c is available to anyone who wants one.
I think all 40% clad circulation strike Kennedy Halves (with the exception of 68-D) require extensive searching to locate that MS66/+ specimen. They are certainly much scarcer than either the 1964 or 1964-D Kennedy Half issues in top grades.
Cupronik: I agree with you on just about everything you said. I would only add this ...
While the 69-D half is a tougher coin to locate in the MS66 grade (as compared to 70-D), the dates are about equally as tough in superb gem MS67. In fact, I might select 70-D as a slightly tougher coin to find in true MS67.
And, I agree that what makes 69-D a little "easier" in MS67 is the fact that there are a few beauties with nice toning which is not the case with 70-D (at least yet).
Both coins are true prizes in MS67 and I believe should see strong demand in the years ahead.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
<< <i>I would like to contribute my observations on 1970-D AND 1969-D halves (and 68-D's too.)
I really like both dates in true MS-66/+ grades. 69-D halves are noticeably more scarce than 70-D's in MS66. In original rolls, the most likely MS66 prospects are the toned obverse-facing end-roll coins. These OBW rolls weren't always wrapped tightly and the inside coins tended to "rub" together adding surface marks that deny them the MS66 grade.
MS66 examples can be found in 1969 mint sets but they are few and far between, even much more so than 1970-D.
It's interesting to note the big difference in the quality of 69-D halves and 68-D 50c found in their respective mint sets. 1968 mint sets are regularly of high quality while 1969 sets tend to be mediocre. This is probably why an MS66 68-D 50c is available to anyone who wants one.
I think all 40% clad circulation strike Kennedy Halves (with the exception of 68-D) require extensive searching to locate that MS66/+ specimen. They are certainly much scarcer than either the 1964 or 1964-D Kennedy Half issues in top grades. >>
I agree.
The '69-D really comes pretty nice in the mint set unless you mind all the scratches, gouges, and scrapes. A lot of the coins are nicely made with nice surfaces. Of course, over the years most of these are now tarnished or corroded and only about half can be cleaned up with nor- mal conservation efforts. I don't know if the professionals have any better luch or not. The '68-D is still often nearly pristine in the set and these come nice more often.
I know your perspective is more from rolls than mine but I believe the '69-D will prove more elusive than the '70-D in nice attractive gemmy condition. This is because most of the '69-D's will be beyond redemption by the time people start looking for them. I'm sure you find these fairly "common" in rolls but rolls just aren't common enough to change the equation, I believe. Of course in lower grades like just chBU the supply of '69-D's will dwarf the number of '70-D's.
All these 40% clad rolls were set aside in pretty high numbers. Not huge numbers but people wanted silver and these were the only game in town. But unlike almost all other moderns there's quite a bit of evidence that these were destroyed enmass in '79/ '80 and again since 2008. When silver shoots higher collectors sell what's available and that means BU rolls. They would prefer- entially sell 40% because it's less valuable and more common. I have to suspect there aren't nearly so many of the rolls left as it might seem. 40% bags usually only have a dozen or two pieces that can be considered Unc. Solid bags never have been widely available since 1969.
What other circ strike modern issues can we discuss to keep this thread in the forefront?
Lincoln Cents? Looks like more 73-S cents are being slabbed in MS66/+. I think this coin is more available than 72-S by the roll or bag, perhaps its pop in high grades will exceed 72-S; it has already exceeded the 1974-S cent which, btw, was never issued in separate roll or bag quantities. (The 74-S was mixed with 74-D cents in bags upon release due to the publicity of being the last cent minted in San Francisco in order to discourage hoarding.
Jefferson Nickels? Will a 1967 or 1969-D or 69-S nickel get slabbed as 'FS' by PCGS???
Roosevelt Dimes? Help!
1965-98 Washington Quarters? Everyone has read about 1969-P, but how about 1971-P, 1985-P, 1988-P, & 1989-P in top grades?
Ike Dollars? This series has been studied extensively and I like eye-appealing high grade examples of most any date at current values.
SBA Dollars? Will another 1981-S SBA be slabbed in PCGS MS67??? What are you opinions on 1980-S in PCGS MS67?
"Lincoln Cents? Looks like more 73-S cents are being slabbed in MS66/+. I think this coin is more available than 72-S by the roll or bag, perhaps its pop in high grades will exceed 72-S; it has already exceeded the 1974-S cent which, btw, was never issued in separate roll or bag quantities. (The 74-S was mixed with 74-D cents in bags upon release due to the publicity of being the last cent minted in San Francisco in order to discourage hoarding."
Cupronik: I said it here close to (10) years ago and I'll say it here again ... my favorite is the 1963-D in true MS67RD quality. I believe it is the rarest Lincoln Cent in that grade going back to 1931. And, 73-S cents (or 74-S) are great coins as well in true MS67RD grade... no doubt. In fact, I would need to see some of these MS66+RD coins in hand as some of the Coinfacts pics show me coins I might have graded lower (but I realize one can not grade from a pic).
My daughter Lauren just screened close to 75 fresh bank wrapped rolls of 1958-D Lincoln Cents this past week and I have a tube with less than (40) coins in it to show for the work (and most of these coins are just MS66RD quality). And, we both know, 58-D is much, much easier a date than either 63-D, 73-S or 74-S.
So, I agree that coins like the 63-D, 73-S or 74-S Lincoln Cents in top grade should find their way into a condition rarity modern set one day, assuming PCGS is interested in such a concept (and assuming 63-D is even considered a "modern" coin ... maybe it is a classic already .. LOL).
Wondercoin
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<< <i> 1965-98 Washington Quarters? Everyone has read about 1969-P, but how about 1971-P, 1985-P, 1988-P, & 1989-P in top grades? >>
Everyone knows I'm a little prejudiced but I like all the moderns and especially the clad.
The '85-P quarter is a really interesting date. People had started setting aside a few rolls of clads finally in 1982 when mint sets were discontinued but they made a comeback in '84 and most stopped. By '85 there were nearly as few new coins being saved as before '82. The '84 quarters had been made with a much lower rim and took a couple years to all get into circulation. The low rim led to early wear and lots of marking and the rim was reraised a little for the '85 but was still low. (A lot of these mid-80's issues are going to start show- ing excessive wear over the next several years due to this)
The '85-P just isn't too nice in the mint set and rolls are tough. Most roll coins have marking and this tends to be the problem with the mint set coins as well. Surfaces aren't always very attractive but most coins have marking and it's often excessive. If you just want a nice at- tractive BU example of the '85-P then you can pick it up anywhere for $1.50 or so. But in sol- id Gem it's elusive and in choice Gem becomes somewhat scarce. Very high grades are scarce as hen's teeth as it were. But don't stop with just the Gems for this date because it comes in two varieties. The common one that appears in the mint set is the "large bust" and has a small gap between Washinton's head and the "E" in "LIBERTY". This appears on about 99.5% of the production. This estimate is still tentative because I don't know the release point (of the scacer variety)(Minneapolis vicinity maybe) and it takes a long time for the incidence of a coin to stabilize in circulation. This scarcer variety has a large gap between the head and the E. I believe the small bust version will be rare in unc and remarkably one of the few major vari- eties allowed to circulate. There is some possibility that it's merely the result of improper hub- bing or the like but it appears major. There's no obvious evidence that it's caused by a badly hubbed die. It's a fun coin to seek and one anyone can find.
I believe the real sleeper for Gem Lincolns will be the '68-S.
Most will scoff at this notion because the coin comes very very nice but, consider that most of the high grade coins above MS-66 come from mint sets and this coin has deteriorated badly in the mint set. This will force a lot of the demand to roll coins and I doubt the supply will be there.
As time goes on this will become more acute since all mint set coins are liable to go bad unless they've been stabilized in acetone.
It looks to me like this thread has turned into a pricing contest between certain modern rarities and classic coins. And also the misnomer between rare and condition rare.
Now while I have no interest in moderns I do realize there are some moderns that are rare and worth big bucks such as the NO S proof dimes.
But on the condition rarity matter......I couldn't care less about having the super top pop moderns. You can see this in looking at the Roosevelt dimes in my Complete Dimes set. When I can get a 66 or 67 for 15 bucks I will "NOT" pay thousands for a 68 or 69. That is just not my collecting focus.
Some people want the very best grade there is so they can be on top in the Registry like Wondercoin....and that is fine for them. But for me I would rather have a Roosevelt in 66 or 67 for 15 bucks and spend the thousands that a top pop of that date would cost on some hard to find Seated Dimes or Bust dimes or Barber dimes or Mercury dimes.
I guess it's a matter or focus and a matter of what you like.
I like the classic coins and have no use for the modern coins with dead presidents on them.
When I see someone spend thousands on a modern top pop that could be bought for 20 bucks 1 grade down.....I think of what I could do with those thousands in classic coins.
Bottom line is to each his/her own....Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.
"Some people want the very best grade there is so they can be on top in the Registry like Wondercoin....and that is fine for them"
Dimeman: As much as I would like to take credit for having the foresight to know in 1983 that by 1999 I would register a top registry set with PCGS (which I did when the registry was a paperback handout with no computer presence) ... the fact is I had no idea. Not only was there no registry at the time .. there was no PCGS at the time!
Registry obviously had nothing to do with me wanting the very highest grade clad coins I could find when I started looking for them about 30 years ago now. I am sure others are in the same boat ... in fact Cladking had about a 10-15 year head start on me!
A $100,000++ 1916-D Mercury Dime grading MS67FB is not in the cards for you Dimeman ... I know that because you mentioned that at the dinner we had together (and obviously because that does not float your boat). BUT, finding a $10,000, $50,000 or even a $350,000 modern coin is possible right this minute for those who desire to learn about the great moderns. I am happy to share the information I have learned along my 30 year journey with moderns as CladKing is with his 40 to 45 years experience with them. I have little doubt this will be a very exciting area of numismatics in the years and decades ahead. Yes, it will not happen tomorrow in most cases. So, in the meantime, I simply gather up "safeflips" by the thousand count and place these gem modern coins in flips one at a time most likely waiting for the day my son or daughter will do something with them when they are (hopefully) highly sought after by the next collecting generation.
Wondercoin
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"I believe the real sleeper for Gem Lincolns will be the '68-S."
CK: PCGS has already graded -43- MS67RD and -1- MS68RD of that date. That compares to -0- MS67RD of the 63-D. So, I do not believe 68-S will turn out to be the "sleeper". The fact is, 1963-D MS67RD Lincolns were a scarce coin in 2001/2002 when I mentioned them here on the boards and now in 2013 it is proving to be a flat out rarity in that grade.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
<< <i>It looks to me like this thread has turned into a pricing contest between certain modern rarities and classic coins. And also the misnomer between rare and condition rare.
Now while I have no interest in moderns I do realize there are some moderns that are rare and worth big bucks such as the NO S proof dimes.
But on the condition rarity matter......I couldn't care less about having the super top pop moderns. You can see this in looking at the Roosevelt dimes in my Complete Dimes set. When I can get a 66 or 67 for 15 bucks I will "NOT" pay thousands for a 68 or 69. That is just not my collecting focus.
Some people want the very best grade there is so they can be on top in the Registry like Wondercoin....and that is fine for them. But for me I would rather have a Roosevelt in 66 or 67 for 15 bucks and spend the thousands that a top pop of that date would cost on some hard to find Seated Dimes or Bust dimes or Barber dimes or Mercury dimes.
I guess it's a matter or focus and a matter of what you like.
I like the classic coins and have no use for the modern coins with dead presidents on them.
When I see someone spend thousands on a modern top pop that could be bought for 20 bucks 1 grade down.....I think of what I could do with those thousands in classic coins.
Bottom line is to each his/her own....Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. >>
You're still missing the point.
That 1954 Indian proof set didn't increase 125 fold in the last couple years because it's high grade, it increased because now there is demand for this set and there never was much supply. Supply of a coin isn't determined by relative mintages like a '16-D vs a '16 dime except in places and at times that there are lots of collectors setting aside lots of coins. If everyone set aside '16 dimes then obviously a lw mintage coin like the '16-D will be much scarcer than high mintage coins. But you don't have to go far to see the effect of selective saving rates. Look at the '83 witout cents nickel or the '13-S type I. The much more common "with cents or the much less popular type II buffalo are worth much more than the heavily saved counterparts.
It only seems that it's low mintage that makes a coin scarce to baby boomers who collect US coins because high prices and scarcity are closely correlated to low mintages. In rea- lity, in the real world all that really matters is how many coins actually get saved and it is this that has caused modern prices to be exploding higher. The scarcity of moderns has been here all along but there was no demand to showthis scarcity. A coin with a mintage of 2 and a 50% attrition won't be worth anything if no one wants it. It is in the demand that rarities are showing up everywhere.
Frankly I applaud you for getting a nice attractive coin at a low price rather than one two or three grades higher at many multiples of that price. But the reason that MS-65 or 66 is so affordable isn't because it is common, it is because there is almost no demand. Most of the tiny demand is at the higher grades. Even though these higher grades might not be a great deal rarer, they have demand and the lower grades don't. You're way ahead of the curve and don't know it. As people follow you they are going to find that there aren't enough for a mass market. Most collections of moderns in the future will have to settle for some un- attractive coins because demand will wipe out the entire supply of nice ones very quickly.
This is happening all over. It's always been tough to figure the common moderns from the rare ones because they all list for 25c or a dollar. But now many of these coins are just going through the roof and this makes it easier to spot the difference. I suspected the '54 Indian set was highly desirable but I had no way to know. Now I do. It's worth over $2000. My guess is we're just seeing the very very early stages of a new world of pricing in moderns because demand is growing everywhere. If Americans don't collect clad then there could be enough demand from abroad to push the prices up. If Russians can make the '70's era Soviet coins valuable with almost no demand maybe they can do the same with clad. The supplies are so thin that even small demand will have a large effect.
Everyone should collect what he likes. Investing is dangerous. Anyone who would try to invest in moderns is likely to end up sitting on huge quantities of very common coins and might never get above water. But this being said, I'm quite confident we ain't seen nothin' yet and the "Top 100 Moderns" is a giant step toward the future.
<< <i>"I believe the real sleeper for Gem Lincolns will be the '68-S."
CK: PCGS has already graded -43- MS67RD and -1- MS68RD of that date. That compares to -0- MS67RD of the 63-D. So, I do not believe 68-S will turn out to be the "sleeper". The fact is, 1963-D MS67RD Lincolns were a scarce coin in 2001/2002 when I mentioned them here on the boards and now in 2013 it is proving to be a flat out rarity in that grade.
>>
I should have worded it much more carefully since I knew the '68-S is "common" in high grade.
We might not see as much increase in slabbing of high end 66's and 67's going forward. If those examples already slabbed weren't stabilized we might see a few turn in the holder. There will be repercussions from the tendency of the coins from the most common source going bad. This should be seen across the entire high end of the grading spectrum. I know the '68-S isn't going to become much less common but I can certainly imagine the price increasing significantly relative other high-end Lincolns.
Thirty years ago I could easily put together a roll of MS-66 and better '68-S's. This is not true anymore. If I had put together such a roll most of those coins would be tarnished now.
>>>A $100,000++ 1916-D Mercury Dime grading MS67FB is not in the cards for you Dimeman ... I know that because you mentioned that at the dinner we had together (and obviously because that does not float your boat). <<<
Mitch - It is not that I wouldn't like a MS67FB 16-D.........It's that I don't have the $$$ for coins like that. I would be happy to get the MS62 back that I used to have. That will be hard enough.
Dimeman: I understand. And, I was simply pointing out that the fella who finds a couple 69-S DDO Lincoln Cents in a $10 roll of cents can buy a handful of Unc. 16-D dimes with his profits. Unless that fella was me as I would want to keep them for my collection!!
Wondercoin
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Mitch, I agree with you 101% regarding the 63-D cent is the rarest (by a mile) Memorial Cent in top grade. I buy every bright BU roll of these I find since they're very inexpensive.
Back in 2007 I sent 150 high-grade 1963-D cents to PCGS on a bulk submission requesting the minimum grade of MS66RD. PCGS only certified 3 of 150. Later, I sent another 100 superior 63-D singles requesting the same MS66RD grade. PCGS graded 0 of 100(!). Mind you, I try to send nice coins and not play games. (After this I sent the best 100 unslabbed singles to NGC, requesting same and they slabbed 58 of 100 in MS66RD.) I posed this question to HRH in an email, "58 to 0, what gives?" He passed the email to Ron Guth who was supposed to respond but never did.
My previous thread pointed out my opinion on the relative scarcity of 73-S cents compared to 74-S & 72-S in MS66/+.
An MS67RD 1963-D will probably never be slabbed by PCGS!
"I posed this question to HRH in an email, "58 to 0, what gives?" He passed the email to Ron Guth who was supposed to respond but never did."
What could Ron have said to you that was not anti-NGC?
Look, we both know NGC and PCGS to this point have graded to a different standard with certain coin series (like Lincoln Cents) for a number of years in the life of their respective companies. I say a "number of years" because it was not always the case. In fact, one of the nicest Barber Half Dollars Justin has in his personal collection is a MONSTER TONED PCGS-PR67CAM that we bought in an NGC-PR64 holder at public auction. I almost brought that coin to Las Vegas with me last week because I personally think the coin could grade PR67+CAM! I also hear that NGC may have "tightened up" over the past half year as well (just hearsay as I have not seen enough freshly slabbed NGC material to make that determination myself but I was told that by a "world class" grader recently).
And I have said before (applying it to this situation) ... just because PCGS thought there were -0- MS66RD coins in a batch while NGC thought that there were 58 does not mean that EITHER company is wrong or right. They are simply grading to a different standard (duh). And, I suspect you figured you had at least 5 or 10 MS66RD coins in the batch in the first place (or you would not done all this work and sent off the 100 coins in the first place). Which tends to prove my point that perhaps the "correct" standard might be somewhere between the PCGS and NGC lines - no? Hence, there is no "right and wrong" and as such nothing Ron Guth can really say to your comment.
Just last week when Lauren was screening about 3,750 fresh Lincoln BU wheat cents, I put two slabs in front of her. A lovely 1955-D PCGS-MS66RD (graded a long long time ago with excellent claims to MS66+RD) and a lovely 1957-P NGC-MS67RD which failed to cross as a PCGS-MS66+RD in a recent submission but I thought it should obviously. My instructions to her were to find me the cents in the rolls "nicer than both of these coins" (if possible telling her I was shooting for about a -100- coin bulk submission from these 3,750 coins). Interestingly, when she was done the work, she told me that she only found a handful or so nicer than the PCGS-MS66RD coin on the table but close to (40) coins that were nicer than the NGC-MS67RD coin. Obviously, Lauren has "no axe to grind" with either company. It is what it is. A dealer bought a coin at auction last year for under $15,000 in an NGC holder and on (roughly) the 10th (attempted) time through at PCGS just got the coin to CROSS evenly in the same grade at PCGS. It is now a $75,000 top pop (pop 1/0) coin. Nice $60,000 (profit) cross - no? I am happy for him ... the collectors in that series (as well as the dealers) thought the coin was not "PCGS quality for the grade" ... the pro knew better. That's why they call it the "grading game". I want to learn as much as I can from the "pros". And, if it means (in part) buying the very nicest NGC graded coins, then I want to be successful doing so. Now that requires the confidence to know a series as well as (if not better than) everyone else and using that knowledge carefully and successfully. Many have tried to do what I just described with that NGC $15,000 coin ... some of those folks are back (or have been back) grading coins at the grading companies.
Wondercoin
edited to add: As always, just my 2 cents.
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
Sending an NGC coin for PCGS crossover ten times and finally getting the c-o? Wow! Talk about persistence! And it definitely paid off for this pro.
I would think the graders would recognize this submission after a few attempts, but perhaps whole other sets of eyes (other graders) gave him his score.
That's what 'liner" coins are all about. Most times through for the upgrade on a liner coin I heard was -63- submission attempts. And, that coin was lovely in the upgraded holder as well. It sold for strong money at auction not too long ago when the collector who had enjoyed it for the past few years decided to sell it off.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
"Jefferson Nickels? Will a 1967 or 1969-D or 69-S nickel get slabbed as 'FS' by PCGS??"
One day possibly. It just really depends upon how strict the grading on "FS" nickels is in the years ahead. As you probably know, over the past 25+ years, we have seen some very, very strict periods and some much less strict grading periods. I think we are in a "midrange" period right now best I can tell.
The pop top modern Jeffs are selling, but a bit off their all time highs. I've been selling some over on Teletrade this past year as well as a few private treaty sales with a board member. Coins that are pop 1 and pop 2 MS67FS specimens from the 1970's (and 1980's) I think are interesting coins in the $3,000's (and sometimes even in the $2,000's). Obviously, from just about (10) years earlier (early 1960's) the coin can trade at 5x that level. A person born in 1977 for example is now 36 years old. In the next 10 years or so, folks this age will be likely coming into money as their careers take off. I suspect some of these collectors might want a nickel or half dollar from their birth year in pop top grade. Let's see what happens to pricing if and when that occurs.
As always, just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
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I think PCGS will remain very strict on designating Jeff 5c as "FS". They don't want any repeat of the infamous 1960-D Nickel in the future. BTW, wasn't there also concern for recent HA Long Beach auction of the 1961-D PCGS MS65FS Jefferson?
The 61-D in MS65FS (pop 1) is a nice coin. I originally bought it at auction for JHF many years ago. You are referring to the MS64FS undergrade coin (last I checked one of two coins in the undergrade). That coin sold for big $$$ and a number of parties suggested the coin was not FS. I did not see the coin in person so I can not comment. At least one market report on that Heritage sale suggested the price paid was rediculous, but I believe that opinion may have been the same whether the steps were all there or not.
As always, just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
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Best I can tell right now, the 68-D Kennedy Half Dollar showing in MS68 is actually a 68-D Washington quarter in MS68. But, I am investigating it further.
Wondercoin
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New article out suggesting Mint State Garfield gold spouse mintage might be the lowest mintage (no longer available) spouse coin and not Hayes with a mintage as low as 2,167.
Of course, we wrote about this story back on 10/22/12. You can read our article by going to my website (www.wondercoins.com) ... it is at the top of the page.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
Not too much going on with the coins in the set over the past month other than that auction sale of a 95-W $1 Silver Eagle for about $86,000. That "70" grade pop has risen over 50% in the past roughly 90 days and prior to that rise, the last public auction of that coin was closer to $20,000. But, I am told this particular 95-W was exceptional quality.
I do see a bit of upward movement lately on Hayes and Garfield spouse gold ... it will be interesting to see if they remain the lowest mintage spouse gold coins over the next 12-24 months (and ,if so, whether Garfield takes out Hayes for the top spot).
Wondercoin
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PCGS pop now up another coin on the 95-W in PR70DCAM.
Pop was 5 in January, 2013 (from 1995-2012 just 5 coins were graded 70 at PCGS). Now, in about 90 days 4 more coins graded 70 at PCGS. That's an 80% rise in the pop in 90 days!
This is exactly why I have said all week that the Price Guide at $23,500 (or up to $30,000 max) is accurate in my personal opinion (notwithstanding the $86k sale). The 95-W coins in 70 are just getting made far too fast these days at PCGS to support a rising price in the guide in my opinion and I remember the exact same scenario on the 1997-W $100 Proof Platinum PR70DC which resulted in that coin going from a high of roughly $20,000 to around $5,000 rather quickly as a result of the fast rising 70 pop. That 1997-W pop had seen about -5- coins graded in PR70DCAM at PCGS in the first nearly -10- years after its release. Check out what happened after that. Ditto on the 1993-W $50 Proof Gold Eagle PR70DC that saw a pop 2 at nearly $38k fall to less than $5k (and check out where pop is now).
Wondercoin
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Big news in the world of 1964 coinage ... I had discussed this set with Dave for many years. I also believe these are neat modern coins with a bright future.
Wondercoin
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
April 23, 2013
Contact
George Huber
info@vdbcoins.com
276-494-3260
VDB Coins Brokers Sale of Finest Certified
1964 SMS Five-Piece Set for $151,200
BRISTOL, Virginia—VDB Coins today announced the brokering of the sale of the finest known PCGS-certified set of 1964 SMS coins in a private transaction. The five-piece coin set, containing one each of the 1964 SMS cent through half dollar in the finest grade certified by PCGS, traded hands in February 2013 for $151,200, including commission, from seller David Schweitz to an anonymous Western collector.
“This same set was recently offered in a major auction where the reserve price was not met. But our client was intensely interested in the set. We have studied this coin series in depth and knew David Schweitz owned the set. All three of us are keenly aware that this is the most desirable set in existence of these underrated, extremely rare 1964 SMS coins. We feared the set might be broken up and sold off individually. My client and I made an offer to David, and we reached an agreement that was a win for each of us,” said VDB Coins proprietor George Huber. “My client intends to hold onto this finest known set intact for many years to come.”
The consecutively numbered 1964 SMS set includes: Lincoln cent MS68 Red PCGS, one of two so graded; Jefferson nickel MS68 Full Steps PCGS, one of six submissions; Roosevelt dime MS68 PCGS, one of three; Washington quarter MS68 PCGS, the only one so graded; and a Kennedy half MS69 PCGS, the sole finest at PCGS.
“We are pleased that we were able to conclude this transaction with VDB Coins and their client,” said Schweitz. “We obtained this set a few years ago from dealer-collector Jesse Lipka, who recognized the sets as something special when they started appearing at Stack's auctions in 1993. Jesse aggressively cracked out and resubmitted numerous pieces to PCGS over a period of a decade or so; as a result, the certified populations are inflated. These coins are far rarer than generally thought, particularly the half dollars. We believe they are among the rarest U.S. coins from the second half of the 20th century.”
“The 1964 SMS coins are unknown even to many seasoned numismatists,” said Huber. “They have a surface texture unlike any other U.S. coins. There are more mysteries posed than facts known about them. All five denominations show dies that are extensively and haphazardly polished, apparently an intentional texture created by the Mint. The coins show little of the reflectivity of proofs, being rather satiny in appearance, but their squared-off rims, incredible strike sharpness, and excellent preservation identify them as coins that were created and preserved for some special purpose. Perhaps they were experimental coins struck for the 1965-67 Special Mint Sets, as Stack's theorized (hence the name), but for the most part they look very little like those later issues. And the silver coins are on 90% silver planchets, not the 40% silver composition of the 1965-67 issues.”
Schweitz added, “These coins are still considered 'modern' and are listed in the 100 Greatest Modern U.S. Coins, but next year will be their 50-year anniversary. As the stigma of 'modern coinage' recedes and these 1964 SMS coins are increasingly recognized as the true rarities they are, we believe this finest-certified 1964 SMS set could someday be worth a half-million dollars.”
Huber said, “We are keenly interested in developing a complete roster of all surviving 1964 SMS coins to determine their exact rarity as closely as possible. We invite anyone who owns examples certified by PCGS or NGC to contact us at info@vdbcoins.com to send us certification numbers, at a minimum, and images if they have them. We will be publishing the roster and some coin images on our www.VDBCoins.com website.”
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Comments
But that is just me. I happen to have 2 of the dimes on the modern list (82 no P and 96-W) because they are needed on the all dimes sets.
But I will "NEVER" have any of the others.......NEVER!!
Dimeman: I understand what you are saying as well. But, bear in mind, an 1838 No Drapery dime has roughly the same mintage as a 1970-D Half Dollar! Only difference is the top pop grade in the dime books at around $40,000 already while the top pop Kennedy books at around $5,000 (and is now 43 years old, not a day old any longer). As CK suggests, the 70-D in pop top grade might have some big time upside in the years ahead, especially considering as a general rule that "big" half dollars tend to sell for a great deal more than "small" dimes in the marketplace.
Wondercoin
I'll tell you why I don't do just this.
In 1970 there were about 60,000 really nice attractive '70-D half dollars. These just stood
head and shoulders above most of the rest. No one was in the least interested. There weren't
a dozen people who even looked at these sets and wanted to add a Gem to his collection. Col-
lectors didn't think like that in those days. If they wanted a '70-D half, which was unlikely, they
went to the corner coin shop and picked the mint set off the top. Some would send away to a
wholesaler because they thought it was wrong to cut up a mint set even if it was a lot cheaper.
Over the years the number of surviving mint sets has just kept eroding away as the wholesalers
cut them up for collectors and collectors cut them up. Around 1980 a few people started paying
attention to quality but most just wanted a nice specimen for their collection. It was at this point
that the attrition for nicer sets started going higher than attrition for typical sets and this has ac-
celerated over the years.
At the current point in time a great percentage of those 60,000 coins are gone or degraded and
their incidence in mint sets is far lower than the original 3% (probably ~.5%) and most of the mint
sets are gone. In other words only some 25,000 nice specimens survive yet many of these don't
even have a premium because they'd only grade MS-64 with the tight grading standards now in
place. In other words demand is so puny that 25,000 coins dwarfs it.
Curiously 25,000 is probably fairly close to the number of '16-D dimes in existence and these start
at about $300. Getting $15 for an MS-64 '70-D would be tough unless it's slabbed and it costs that
much to slab it!!
It just seems that selling with demand at such low levels might not be a good plan. Yes, it's poss-
ible that demand for high end coins could decrease but it seems impossible that demand for nice
attractive '70-D half dollars won't ratchet much higher. People also need to realize MS-66 and 67
'70-D's are irreplaceable unless they want to pay thousands of dollars.
I suppose I just like owning this coin and believe we ain't seen nothing yet as far as prices go. I'm
just still more a collector than a speculator and this could even still be true after prices go higher. Of
course I'll have to sell off some of the excess in order to buy the rarities I've missed over the years.
You'll get first refusal.
**********************************************
CK: Thanks for that offer of first refusal. I would love to have a shot at buying some of your coins for sure.
I agree with nearly all of what you said (as usual). I came on the scene in 1983 with an interest in tucking away all the high end clad coins I could find. And, that included all the fresh 1970 mint sets I could find. And, I found plenty of them in the decades that followed, but, unfortunately, not plenty of 70-D half dollars grading over gem MS65. And, the "shot MS67" coins were few and far apart. I have owned 2 out of the 3 MS67's of this date that PCGS has graded over the last 25+ years, but I let one go years ago.
I personally agree with you that demand for these early clad pop tops will exceed supply in the years ahead. I don't blame you for not selling now.
Wondercoin
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
First of all the Kennedy halves will NEVER be as popular as the Mercury Dime. I am saying this as a collector.....not a dime man.
Second there will always be plenty of 70-D's to go around! There were 1.2 M I believe and ALL of those still survive and ALL are probably 63 or better.
I will admit that finding a 66 is very hard and a 67 is probably 10X as hard as 66. I will also admit that there will probably be people who will pay moon money for a 67.......but not me.
Mercs and Kennedy's are apples and oranges.....no comparsion.
Just my ten cents!
Second, the 70-D in MS67 already "compares in price" to an XF-40 1916-D. And, if one found an MS68 Kennedy of that date, that would likely compare to an AU of the 1916-D. In both of those cases, I would personally take the 70-D Kennedy over the 16-D dime right now.
So, you keep on the hunt for an AU 1916-D dime and I will keep on the hunt for a 70-D Kennedy Half dollar that grades above MS67, and we'll both be very happy if we locate one!
Wondercoin
When you could get a 70-D in Gem 65 for a few bucks!!!!
Just drives me crazy!!
spending 29 years on the hunt already and coming up empty on that monster gem MS67++ specimen!! How many more years can I do this for? It's easier to "pay up" at this point!
Wondercoin
You probably have already paid for 1 or 2 70-D's in 68!
Hold out for a 69!
Fast Forward to today the SuperBird is worth in excess of $100K. The Model A is worth about $20K if he can find somebody that still has a pulse that wants it.
And I wouldn't pay either price for either car!
Wondercoin
I will go look at your Modern set.....which is mostly bullion.
I understand your frustration when you see someone paying big $$$ for a condition rarity, especially a modern condition rarity. But, you need to understand, I just recently sold a 1916-D MS66+FB dime (that I had no interest in personally but I might have had great interest if I had a solid MS67FB specimen) and I would want to own that coin any day of the week instead of hundreds and hundreds of assorted dime dates in low(er) grades. We are on completely different ends of the spectrum with respect to our collecting habits. I generally want the very nicest quality coin I can afford for any date/denomination I desire to collect. You obviously much prefer collecting the largest quantity of dime dates you possibly can as opposed to just a handful of the very nicest dimes money can buy (at the same value). To each his own. I can see why someone paying big $$$ for a condition rarity might make little sense to you. Can you equally see why someone might never understand assembling a collection that includes hundreds of "widgets" (in addition to prize pieces).
Wondercoin
<< <i>Mitch - If you totaled up the hours you have looked for the Ultra 70-D and took that times what you think your time is worth.......
You probably have already paid for 1 or 2 70-D's in 68!
Hold out for a 69!
You wanna know what drives me crazy you two??
Statements which ask "what you think your time is worth" when working on a "hobby"!
Exactly where is the relevence in equating a dollar value to the amount of time one spends on a "hobby"?
The name is LEE!
Some of the dimes I have in nice midgrades don't even exist in UNC.
In my eyes paying "moon money" for either dime or half dollar of underlying does not make sense - but it sure makes sense to DIMEMAN and Wondercoin and that is the beauty of the hobby. Although I will admit I would not try to acquire even bullion items above certain price point above melt.
The reason for me pointing this out that I think it is very unlikely there will be more than few others than Wondercoin who will try to assemble the full set whatever is legally available – in my mind it’s quite disjoined between non-bullion/bullion to meet a single goal
As always just my 2 oz
<< <i>If you are trying to say that the 70-D will someday compare in price to the 16-D.......WHAT DRUGS ARE YOU ON!!!!!!
First of all the Kennedy halves will NEVER be as popular as the Mercury Dime. I am saying this as a collector.....not a dime man.
Second there will always be plenty of 70-D's to go around! There were 1.2 M I believe and ALL of those still survive and ALL are probably 63 or better.
I will admit that finding a 66 is very hard and a 67 is probably 10X as hard as 66. I will also admit that there will probably be people who will pay moon money for a 67.......but not me.
Mercs and Kennedy's are apples and oranges.....no comparsion.
Just my ten cents!
Perhaps neither of us will live long enough to see it but mercury dimes are mostly collected by
older collectors. Yes, they are a wonderful series with lots of interesting coins and are made of
silver which is a must most baby boomers. But it's hardly natural for an old series like this to sim-
pl7y dwarf the demand for a newer series. Baby boomers won't live forever. As we sell off our
collections there will be millions of coins coming on the market and there isn't necessarily even
going to a market at all for them. New collectors have been chased out of the hobby since 1965
by established collectors who say that clad is garbage and modern coins are uncollectible. Despite
this "welcome" to the hobby there are still millions who are collecting moderns and many have
gone on to collect classics, dark side, and even far side. These new collectors to a far higher de-
gree than we boomers don't care about silver and will be collecting what catches their fancy and
not what we think is valuable and desirable. There will not only be merc collections coming on
the market in huge numbers over the next decade but these will continue for many years to come
from "old time collections".
What won't be coming on the market over the next decades is moderns. This is a point that eludes
many people but there aren't any "old time collections" of moderns and there won't be any for a
vary long tiime. There are 25,000 '70-D gemmy halfs and 25,000 '16-D dimes right now but the at-
trition on the '70-D is quite high and there will be a lot fewer each year until it comes into demand.
How many '16-D dimes do you think get lost each year? 50? 100? Where there will be thousands
coming on the market each year there will be no '70-D halfs coming on the market except the few
that just happen to be in '70 mint set. This is several coins per year compared to thousands of the
'16-D. Sure there are thousands of nice '70-D's that will come out of the woodwork if the price goes
higher but the number is limited to the number in existence and the number of holders willing to sell.
I see no reason the price of the '70-D can't exceed the price of the '16-D. There's no demand now
but if even a little demand develops there's no supply. All over the world there are moderns going
up a thousand fold per year because people are discovering moderns weren't saved and usually are
scarce. The apparent supply of the '70-D is extremely low because they are tied up here and there.
You might believe demand can't materialize but if you do it's because you haven't been following the
markets. One of the reasons people collect is nostalgia and there are lots of people, even those born
in the '90's who have seen and dealt with moderns and half dollars. You might not be aware but they
are selling tens of thousands of folders and albums for all kinds of moderns. Right now most of these
collections will lack key dates like the '70-D or just have an ugly specimen waiting to be upgraded and
many of these will be upgraded eventually. The potential demand is enormous even though current
demand is puny. Much of this demand is unsophisticated and the collector has no idea of value or
difficulty in obtaining it. This won't last because these collectors will learn.
Time has a way of changing everything and no change is ever more profound than demographic change.
Demographics drives everything from ice cream sales to antacid prices. The coin market will be totally
different in the next decade and there's nothing to stop it and it's exceedingly difficult to predict what
all these changes will be.
<< <i>If you are trying to say that the 70-D will someday compare in price to the 16-D.......WHAT DRUGS ARE YOU ON!!!!!!
First of all the Kennedy halves will NEVER be as popular as the Mercury Dime. I am saying this as a collector.....not a dime man.
Second there will always be plenty of 70-D's to go around! There were 1.2 M I believe and ALL of those still survive and ALL are probably 63 or better.
I will admit that finding a 66 is very hard and a 67 is probably 10X as hard as 66. I will also admit that there will probably be people who will pay moon money for a 67.......but not me.
Mercs and Kennedy's are apples and oranges.....no comparsion.
Just my ten cents!
Did I mention the '70-D has twice as much silver as the '16-D?
<< <i>Mitch - This is what drives me crazy about modern coins. You would spend 16-D AU money on a super high grade 70-D..........
When you could get a 70-D in Gem 65 for a few bucks!!!!
Just drives me crazy!!
Let me put it this way.
Three years ago you could buy you could buy "500" 1954 Indian proof sets for what a '16-D cost.
Now you can buy "4" (if you can find them).
If you're collecting Indian proof sets a '16-D dime will look silly as part of the collection.
I don't understand modern bashing. I love it, I just don't understand it.
Or how about this one ....
Ten or fifteen years ago, you could buy around a half dozen 16-D dimes in XF/AU with a 1975 NO S dime. Now, you can buy (70) or (75) 1916-D dimes with that 1975 NO S!!
Wondercoin
<< <i>Or how about this one ....
Ten or fifteen years ago, you could buy around a half dozen 16-D dimes in XF/AU with a 1975 NO S dime. Now, you can buy (70) or (75) 1916-D dimes with that 1975 NO S!!
>>
There are just so many really great coins in the world. A '16-D certainly is one of
them and I can understand why anyone might hold it as the holy grail and this es-
pecially applies to mercury dime collectors.
Many collectors just don't realize that all the great coins haven't even been discovered
yet and this is exactly "Top 100 moderns" is all about. One can argue whether these
are the most appropriate or desirable moderns but no one can argue that moderns
aren't great and every year the market is telling us that there are a lot of moderns
with increasing demand. We know this because across the board moderns tend to
be fairly tough and they are generally very low priced. Just a little demand has a huge
effect.
I just think of neat little coins like a bronze 1954 Indian 1 pice sitting in a dealers junk
box a few years ago. No one would have even thought of buying it no matter how nice
it was and how pristine. People don't buy such junk so most of it ends up as play money
for kids or knocking around in poundage. But all of a sudden a small handful of people
want it and the price goes to $125. Of course, I believe they'll find over time that this
coin tended to tarnish, too, so it's even scarcer than the tiny demand suggests. It's
such a tough coin I just haven't seen enough of them to know.
Moderns are a sort of terra incognita and no one knows what's scarce and what's common
but if recent history is any guide then WYSIWYG. All those coins that aren't common are
almost impossible. Coins like nice '70-D halfs are "common" compared to many moderns
but no more common than a '16-D dime. It's really a lot f fun to be collecting in an area
that is poorly known because there's so much to learn and many others haven't been there
before you.
I think things like the hundred greatest moderns will blaze trails. They make an access point
for people of all budgets since if you apply yourself you can get one of those nice '70-D's
for $20 or less. It also shows the naysayers that there are lots of coins that have already
appreciated a lot and do have real and serious demand.
I really like both dates in true MS-66/+ grades. 69-D halves are noticeably more scarce than 70-D's in MS66. In original rolls, the most likely MS66 prospects are the toned obverse-facing end-roll coins. These OBW rolls weren't always wrapped tightly and the inside coins tended to "rub" together adding surface marks that deny them the MS66 grade.
MS66 examples can be found in 1969 mint sets but they are few and far between, even much more so than 1970-D.
It's interesting to note the big difference in the quality of 69-D halves and 68-D 50c found in their respective mint sets. 1968 mint sets are regularly of high quality while 1969 sets tend to be mediocre. This is probably why an MS66 68-D 50c is available to anyone who wants one.
I think all 40% clad circulation strike Kennedy Halves (with the exception of 68-D) require extensive searching to locate that MS66/+ specimen. They are certainly much scarcer than either the 1964 or 1964-D Kennedy Half issues in top grades.
While the 69-D half is a tougher coin to locate in the MS66 grade (as compared to 70-D), the dates are about equally as tough in superb gem MS67. In fact, I might select 70-D as a slightly tougher coin to find in true MS67.
And, I agree that what makes 69-D a little "easier" in MS67 is the fact that there are a few beauties with nice toning which is not the case with 70-D (at least yet).
Both coins are true prizes in MS67 and I believe should see strong demand in the years ahead.
Wondercoin
<< <i>I would like to contribute my observations on 1970-D AND 1969-D halves (and 68-D's too.)
I really like both dates in true MS-66/+ grades. 69-D halves are noticeably more scarce than 70-D's in MS66. In original rolls, the most likely MS66 prospects are the toned obverse-facing end-roll coins. These OBW rolls weren't always wrapped tightly and the inside coins tended to "rub" together adding surface marks that deny them the MS66 grade.
MS66 examples can be found in 1969 mint sets but they are few and far between, even much more so than 1970-D.
It's interesting to note the big difference in the quality of 69-D halves and 68-D 50c found in their respective mint sets. 1968 mint sets are regularly of high quality while 1969 sets tend to be mediocre. This is probably why an MS66 68-D 50c is available to anyone who wants one.
I think all 40% clad circulation strike Kennedy Halves (with the exception of 68-D) require extensive searching to locate that MS66/+ specimen. They are certainly much scarcer than either the 1964 or 1964-D Kennedy Half issues in top grades. >>
I agree.
The '69-D really comes pretty nice in the mint set unless you mind all the scratches, gouges,
and scrapes. A lot of the coins are nicely made with nice surfaces. Of course, over the years
most of these are now tarnished or corroded and only about half can be cleaned up with nor-
mal conservation efforts. I don't know if the professionals have any better luch or not. The
'68-D is still often nearly pristine in the set and these come nice more often.
I know your perspective is more from rolls than mine but I believe the '69-D will prove more
elusive than the '70-D in nice attractive gemmy condition. This is because most of the '69-D's
will be beyond redemption by the time people start looking for them. I'm sure you find these
fairly "common" in rolls but rolls just aren't common enough to change the equation, I believe.
Of course in lower grades like just chBU the supply of '69-D's will dwarf the number of '70-D's.
All these 40% clad rolls were set aside in pretty high numbers. Not huge numbers but people
wanted silver and these were the only game in town. But unlike almost all other moderns there's
quite a bit of evidence that these were destroyed enmass in '79/ '80 and again since 2008. When
silver shoots higher collectors sell what's available and that means BU rolls. They would prefer-
entially sell 40% because it's less valuable and more common. I have to suspect there aren't
nearly so many of the rolls left as it might seem. 40% bags usually only have a dozen or two
pieces that can be considered Unc. Solid bags never have been widely available since 1969.
Lincoln Cents? Looks like more 73-S cents are being slabbed in MS66/+. I think this coin is more available than 72-S by the roll or bag, perhaps its pop in high grades will exceed 72-S; it has already exceeded the 1974-S cent which, btw, was never issued in separate roll or bag quantities. (The 74-S was mixed with 74-D cents in bags upon release due to the publicity of being the last cent minted in San Francisco in order to discourage hoarding.
Jefferson Nickels? Will a 1967 or 1969-D or 69-S nickel get slabbed as 'FS' by PCGS???
Roosevelt Dimes? Help!
1965-98 Washington Quarters? Everyone has read about 1969-P, but how about 1971-P, 1985-P, 1988-P, & 1989-P in top grades?
Ike Dollars? This series has been studied extensively and I like eye-appealing high grade examples of most any date at current values.
SBA Dollars? Will another 1981-S SBA be slabbed in PCGS MS67??? What are you opinions on 1980-S in PCGS MS67?
Cupronik: I said it here close to (10) years ago and I'll say it here again ... my favorite is the 1963-D in true MS67RD quality. I believe it is the rarest Lincoln Cent in that grade going back to 1931. And, 73-S cents (or 74-S) are great coins as well in true MS67RD grade... no doubt. In fact, I would need to see some of these MS66+RD coins in hand as some of the Coinfacts pics show me coins I might have graded lower (but I realize one can not grade from a pic).
My daughter Lauren just screened close to 75 fresh bank wrapped rolls of 1958-D Lincoln Cents this past week and I have a tube with less than (40) coins in it to show for the work (and most of these coins are just MS66RD quality). And, we both know, 58-D is much, much easier a date than either 63-D, 73-S or 74-S.
So, I agree that coins like the 63-D, 73-S or 74-S Lincoln Cents in top grade should find their way into a condition rarity modern set one day, assuming PCGS is interested in such a concept (and assuming 63-D is even considered a "modern" coin ... maybe it is a classic already .. LOL).
Wondercoin
<< <i>
1965-98 Washington Quarters? Everyone has read about 1969-P, but how about 1971-P, 1985-P, 1988-P, & 1989-P in top grades?
>>
Everyone knows I'm a little prejudiced but I like all the moderns and especially the clad.
The '85-P quarter is a really interesting date. People had started setting aside a few rolls
of clads finally in 1982 when mint sets were discontinued but they made a comeback in '84
and most stopped. By '85 there were nearly as few new coins being saved as before '82.
The '84 quarters had been made with a much lower rim and took a couple years to all get
into circulation. The low rim led to early wear and lots of marking and the rim was reraised
a little for the '85 but was still low. (A lot of these mid-80's issues are going to start show-
ing excessive wear over the next several years due to this)
The '85-P just isn't too nice in the mint set and rolls are tough. Most roll coins have marking
and this tends to be the problem with the mint set coins as well. Surfaces aren't always very
attractive but most coins have marking and it's often excessive. If you just want a nice at-
tractive BU example of the '85-P then you can pick it up anywhere for $1.50 or so. But in sol-
id Gem it's elusive and in choice Gem becomes somewhat scarce. Very high grades are scarce
as hen's teeth as it were. But don't stop with just the Gems for this date because it comes
in two varieties. The common one that appears in the mint set is the "large bust" and has a
small gap between Washinton's head and the "E" in "LIBERTY". This appears on about 99.5%
of the production. This estimate is still tentative because I don't know the release point (of
the scacer variety)(Minneapolis vicinity maybe) and it takes a long time for the incidence of a
coin to stabilize in circulation. This scarcer variety has a large gap between the head and the E.
I believe the small bust version will be rare in unc and remarkably one of the few major vari-
eties allowed to circulate. There is some possibility that it's merely the result of improper hub-
bing or the like but it appears major. There's no obvious evidence that it's caused by a badly
hubbed die. It's a fun coin to seek and one anyone can find.
Most will scoff at this notion because the coin comes very very nice but, consider that most
of the high grade coins above MS-66 come from mint sets and this coin has deteriorated badly
in the mint set. This will force a lot of the demand to roll coins and I doubt the supply will be there.
As time goes on this will become more acute since all mint set coins are liable to go bad unless they've
been stabilized in acetone.
Now while I have no interest in moderns I do realize there are some moderns that are rare and worth big bucks such as the NO S proof dimes.
But on the condition rarity matter......I couldn't care less about having the super top pop moderns. You can see this in looking at the Roosevelt dimes in my Complete Dimes set. When I can get a 66 or 67 for 15 bucks I will "NOT" pay thousands for a 68 or 69. That is just not my collecting focus.
Some people want the very best grade there is so they can be on top in the Registry like Wondercoin....and that is fine for them. But for me I would rather have a Roosevelt in 66 or 67 for 15 bucks and spend the thousands that a top pop of that date would cost on some hard to find Seated Dimes or Bust dimes or Barber dimes or Mercury dimes.
I guess it's a matter or focus and a matter of what you like.
I like the classic coins and have no use for the modern coins with dead presidents on them.
When I see someone spend thousands on a modern top pop that could be bought for 20 bucks 1 grade down.....I think of what I could do with those thousands in classic coins.
Bottom line is to each his/her own....Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.
Dimeman: As much as I would like to take credit for having the foresight to know in 1983 that by 1999 I would register a top registry set with PCGS (which I did when the registry was a paperback handout with no computer presence) ... the fact is I had no idea. Not only was there no registry at the time .. there was no PCGS at the time!
Registry obviously had nothing to do with me wanting the very highest grade clad coins I could find when I started looking for them about 30 years ago now. I am sure others are in the same boat ... in fact Cladking had about a 10-15 year head start on me!
A $100,000++ 1916-D Mercury Dime grading MS67FB is not in the cards for you Dimeman ... I know that because you mentioned that at the dinner we had together (and obviously because that does not float your boat). BUT, finding a $10,000, $50,000 or even a $350,000 modern coin is possible right this minute for those who desire to learn about the great moderns. I am happy to share the information I have learned along my 30 year journey with moderns as CladKing is with his 40 to 45 years experience with them. I have little doubt this will be a very exciting area of numismatics in the years and decades ahead. Yes, it will not happen tomorrow in most cases. So, in the meantime, I simply gather up "safeflips" by the thousand count and place these gem modern coins in flips one at a time most likely waiting for the day my son or daughter will do something with them when they are (hopefully) highly sought after by the next collecting generation.
Wondercoin
CK: PCGS has already graded -43- MS67RD and -1- MS68RD of that date. That compares to -0- MS67RD of the 63-D. So, I do not believe 68-S will turn out to be the "sleeper". The fact is, 1963-D MS67RD Lincolns were a scarce coin in 2001/2002 when I mentioned them here on the boards and now in 2013 it is proving to be a flat out rarity in that grade.
Wondercoin
<< <i>It looks to me like this thread has turned into a pricing contest between certain modern rarities and classic coins. And also the misnomer between rare and condition rare.
Now while I have no interest in moderns I do realize there are some moderns that are rare and worth big bucks such as the NO S proof dimes.
But on the condition rarity matter......I couldn't care less about having the super top pop moderns. You can see this in looking at the Roosevelt dimes in my Complete Dimes set. When I can get a 66 or 67 for 15 bucks I will "NOT" pay thousands for a 68 or 69. That is just not my collecting focus.
Some people want the very best grade there is so they can be on top in the Registry like Wondercoin....and that is fine for them. But for me I would rather have a Roosevelt in 66 or 67 for 15 bucks and spend the thousands that a top pop of that date would cost on some hard to find Seated Dimes or Bust dimes or Barber dimes or Mercury dimes.
I guess it's a matter or focus and a matter of what you like.
I like the classic coins and have no use for the modern coins with dead presidents on them.
When I see someone spend thousands on a modern top pop that could be bought for 20 bucks 1 grade down.....I think of what I could do with those thousands in classic coins.
Bottom line is to each his/her own....Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.
You're still missing the point.
That 1954 Indian proof set didn't increase 125 fold in the last couple years because it's
high grade, it increased because now there is demand for this set and there never was
much supply. Supply of a coin isn't determined by relative mintages like a '16-D vs a '16
dime except in places and at times that there are lots of collectors setting aside lots of
coins. If everyone set aside '16 dimes then obviously a lw mintage coin like the '16-D
will be much scarcer than high mintage coins. But you don't have to go far to see the
effect of selective saving rates. Look at the '83 witout cents nickel or the '13-S type I.
The much more common "with cents or the much less popular type II buffalo are worth
much more than the heavily saved counterparts.
It only seems that it's low mintage that makes a coin scarce to baby boomers who collect
US coins because high prices and scarcity are closely correlated to low mintages. In rea-
lity, in the real world all that really matters is how many coins actually get saved and it is
this that has caused modern prices to be exploding higher. The scarcity of moderns has
been here all along but there was no demand to showthis scarcity. A coin with a mintage
of 2 and a 50% attrition won't be worth anything if no one wants it. It is in the demand
that rarities are showing up everywhere.
Frankly I applaud you for getting a nice attractive coin at a low price rather than one two
or three grades higher at many multiples of that price. But the reason that MS-65 or 66
is so affordable isn't because it is common, it is because there is almost no demand. Most
of the tiny demand is at the higher grades. Even though these higher grades might not be
a great deal rarer, they have demand and the lower grades don't. You're way ahead of the
curve and don't know it. As people follow you they are going to find that there aren't enough
for a mass market. Most collections of moderns in the future will have to settle for some un-
attractive coins because demand will wipe out the entire supply of nice ones very quickly.
This is happening all over. It's always been tough to figure the common moderns from
the rare ones because they all list for 25c or a dollar. But now many of these coins are just
going through the roof and this makes it easier to spot the difference. I suspected the '54
Indian set was highly desirable but I had no way to know. Now I do. It's worth over $2000.
My guess is we're just seeing the very very early stages of a new world of pricing in moderns
because demand is growing everywhere. If Americans don't collect clad then there could be
enough demand from abroad to push the prices up. If Russians can make the '70's era Soviet
coins valuable with almost no demand maybe they can do the same with clad. The supplies
are so thin that even small demand will have a large effect.
Everyone should collect what he likes. Investing is dangerous. Anyone who would try to invest
in moderns is likely to end up sitting on huge quantities of very common coins and might never
get above water. But this being said, I'm quite confident we ain't seen nothin' yet and the "Top
100 Moderns" is a giant step toward the future.
...cause time don't fly, it bounds and leaps.
<< <i>"I believe the real sleeper for Gem Lincolns will be the '68-S."
CK: PCGS has already graded -43- MS67RD and -1- MS68RD of that date. That compares to -0- MS67RD of the 63-D. So, I do not believe 68-S will turn out to be the "sleeper". The fact is, 1963-D MS67RD Lincolns were a scarce coin in 2001/2002 when I mentioned them here on the boards and now in 2013 it is proving to be a flat out rarity in that grade.
>>
I should have worded it much more carefully since I knew the '68-S is "common" in high grade.
We might not see as much increase in slabbing of high end 66's and 67's going forward. If those
examples already slabbed weren't stabilized we might see a few turn in the holder. There will be
repercussions from the tendency of the coins from the most common source going bad. This should
be seen across the entire high end of the grading spectrum. I know the '68-S isn't going to become
much less common but I can certainly imagine the price increasing significantly relative other high-end
Lincolns.
Thirty years ago I could easily put together a roll of MS-66 and better '68-S's. This is not true anymore.
If I had put together such a roll most of those coins would be tarnished now.
Mitch - It is not that I wouldn't like a MS67FB 16-D.........It's that I don't have the $$$ for coins like that. I would be happy to get the MS62 back that I used to have. That will be hard enough.
Wondercoin
I do really love your set of silver Washies......so we do have that in common.
Happy Hunting!
Back in 2007 I sent 150 high-grade 1963-D cents to PCGS on a bulk submission requesting the minimum grade of MS66RD. PCGS only certified 3 of 150. Later, I sent another 100 superior 63-D singles requesting the same MS66RD grade. PCGS graded 0 of 100(!). Mind you, I try to send nice coins and not play games. (After this I sent the best 100 unslabbed singles to NGC, requesting same and they slabbed 58 of 100 in MS66RD.) I posed this question to HRH in an email, "58 to 0, what gives?" He passed the email to Ron Guth who was supposed to respond but never did.
My previous thread pointed out my opinion on the relative scarcity of 73-S cents compared to 74-S & 72-S in MS66/+.
An MS67RD 1963-D will probably never be slabbed by PCGS!
What could Ron have said to you that was not anti-NGC?
Look, we both know NGC and PCGS to this point have graded to a different standard with certain coin series (like Lincoln Cents) for a number of years in the life of their respective companies. I say a "number of years" because it was not always the case. In fact, one of the nicest Barber Half Dollars Justin has in his personal collection is a MONSTER TONED PCGS-PR67CAM that we bought in an NGC-PR64 holder at public auction. I almost brought that coin to Las Vegas with me last week because I personally think the coin could grade PR67+CAM! I also hear that NGC may have "tightened up" over the past half year as well (just hearsay as I have not seen enough freshly slabbed NGC material to make that determination myself but I was told that by a "world class" grader recently).
And I have said before (applying it to this situation) ... just because PCGS thought there were -0- MS66RD coins in a batch while NGC thought that there were 58 does not mean that EITHER company is wrong or right. They are simply grading to a different standard (duh). And, I suspect you figured you had at least 5 or 10 MS66RD coins in the batch in the first place (or you would not done all this work and sent off the 100 coins in the first place). Which tends to prove my point that perhaps the "correct" standard might be somewhere between the PCGS and NGC lines - no? Hence, there is no "right and wrong" and as such nothing Ron Guth can really say to your comment.
Just last week when Lauren was screening about 3,750 fresh Lincoln BU wheat cents, I put two slabs in front of her. A lovely 1955-D PCGS-MS66RD (graded a long long time ago with excellent claims to MS66+RD) and a lovely 1957-P NGC-MS67RD which failed to cross as a PCGS-MS66+RD in a recent submission but I thought it should obviously. My instructions to her were to find me the cents in the rolls "nicer than both of these coins" (if possible telling her I was shooting for about a -100- coin bulk submission from these 3,750 coins). Interestingly, when she was done the work, she told me that she only found a handful or so nicer than the PCGS-MS66RD coin on the table but close to (40) coins that were nicer than the NGC-MS67RD coin. Obviously, Lauren has "no axe to grind" with either company. It is what it is. A dealer bought a coin at auction last year for under $15,000 in an NGC holder and on (roughly) the 10th (attempted) time through at PCGS just got the coin to CROSS evenly in the same grade at PCGS. It is now a $75,000 top pop (pop 1/0) coin. Nice $60,000 (profit) cross - no? I am happy for him ... the collectors in that series (as well as the dealers) thought the coin was not "PCGS quality for the grade" ... the pro knew better. That's why they call it the "grading game". I want to learn as much as I can from the "pros". And, if it means (in part) buying the very nicest NGC graded coins, then I want to be successful doing so. Now that requires the confidence to know a series as well as (if not better than) everyone else and using that knowledge carefully and successfully. Many have tried to do what I just described with that NGC $15,000 coin ... some of those folks are back (or have been back) grading coins at the grading companies.
Wondercoin
edited to add: As always, just my 2 cents.
I would think the graders would recognize this submission after a few attempts, but perhaps whole other sets of eyes (other graders) gave him his score.
Wondercoin
One day possibly. It just really depends upon how strict the grading on "FS" nickels is in the years ahead. As you probably know, over the past 25+ years, we have seen some very, very strict periods and some much less strict grading periods. I think we are in a "midrange" period right now best I can tell.
The pop top modern Jeffs are selling, but a bit off their all time highs. I've been selling some over on Teletrade this past year as well as a few private treaty sales with a board member. Coins that are pop 1 and pop 2 MS67FS specimens from the 1970's (and 1980's) I think are interesting coins in the $3,000's (and sometimes even in the $2,000's). Obviously, from just about (10) years earlier (early 1960's) the coin can trade at 5x that level. A person born in 1977 for example is now 36 years old. In the next 10 years or so, folks this age will be likely coming into money as their careers take off. I suspect some of these collectors might want a nickel or half dollar from their birth year in pop top grade. Let's see what happens to pricing if and when that occurs.
As always, just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
As always, just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
Wondercoin
Of course, we wrote about this story back on 10/22/12. You can read our article by going to my website (www.wondercoins.com) ... it is at the top of the page.
Wondercoin
.
CoinsAreFun Toned Silver Eagle Proof Album
.
Gallery Mint Museum, Ron Landis& Joe Rust, The beginnings of the Golden Dollar
.
More CoinsAreFun Pictorials NGC
I do see a bit of upward movement lately on Hayes and Garfield spouse gold ... it will be interesting to see if they remain the lowest mintage spouse gold coins over the next 12-24 months (and ,if so, whether Garfield takes out Hayes for the top spot).
Wondercoin
PCGS pop now up another coin on the 95-W in PR70DCAM.
Pop was 5 in January, 2013 (from 1995-2012 just 5 coins were graded 70 at PCGS). Now, in about 90 days 4 more coins graded 70 at PCGS. That's an 80% rise in the pop in 90 days!
This is exactly why I have said all week that the Price Guide at $23,500 (or up to $30,000 max) is accurate in my personal opinion (notwithstanding the $86k sale). The 95-W coins in 70 are just getting made far too fast these days at PCGS to support a rising price in the guide in my opinion and I remember the exact same scenario on the 1997-W $100 Proof Platinum PR70DC which resulted in that coin going from a high of roughly $20,000 to around $5,000 rather quickly as a result of the fast rising 70 pop. That 1997-W pop had seen about -5- coins graded in PR70DCAM at PCGS in the first nearly -10- years after its release. Check out what happened after that. Ditto on the 1993-W $50 Proof Gold Eagle PR70DC that saw a pop 2 at nearly $38k fall to less than $5k (and check out where pop is now).
Wondercoin
Wondercoin
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
April 23, 2013
Contact
George Huber
info@vdbcoins.com
276-494-3260
VDB Coins Brokers Sale of Finest Certified
1964 SMS Five-Piece Set for $151,200
BRISTOL, Virginia—VDB Coins today announced the brokering of the sale of the finest known PCGS-certified set of 1964 SMS coins in a private transaction. The five-piece coin set, containing one each of the 1964 SMS cent through half dollar in the finest grade certified by PCGS, traded hands in February 2013 for $151,200, including commission, from seller David Schweitz to an anonymous Western collector.
“This same set was recently offered in a major auction where the reserve price was not met. But our client was intensely interested in the set. We have studied this coin series in depth and knew David Schweitz owned the set. All three of us are keenly aware that this is the most desirable set in existence of these underrated, extremely rare 1964 SMS coins. We feared the set might be broken up and sold off individually. My client and I made an offer to David, and we reached an agreement that was a win for each of us,” said VDB Coins proprietor George Huber. “My client intends to hold onto this finest known set intact for many years to come.”
The consecutively numbered 1964 SMS set includes: Lincoln cent MS68 Red PCGS, one of two so graded; Jefferson nickel MS68 Full Steps PCGS, one of six submissions; Roosevelt dime MS68 PCGS, one of three; Washington quarter MS68 PCGS, the only one so graded; and a Kennedy half MS69 PCGS, the sole finest at PCGS.
“We are pleased that we were able to conclude this transaction with VDB Coins and their client,” said Schweitz. “We obtained this set a few years ago from dealer-collector Jesse Lipka, who recognized the sets as something special when they started appearing at Stack's auctions in 1993. Jesse aggressively cracked out and resubmitted numerous pieces to PCGS over a period of a decade or so; as a result, the certified populations are inflated. These coins are far rarer than generally thought, particularly the half dollars. We believe they are among the rarest U.S. coins from the second half of the 20th century.”
“The 1964 SMS coins are unknown even to many seasoned numismatists,” said Huber. “They have a surface texture unlike any other U.S. coins. There are more mysteries posed than facts known about them. All five denominations show dies that are extensively and haphazardly polished, apparently an intentional texture created by the Mint. The coins show little of the reflectivity of proofs, being rather satiny in appearance, but their squared-off rims, incredible strike sharpness, and excellent preservation identify them as coins that were created and preserved for some special purpose. Perhaps they were experimental coins struck for the 1965-67 Special Mint Sets, as Stack's theorized (hence the name), but for the most part they look very little like those later issues. And the silver coins are on 90% silver planchets, not the 40% silver composition of the 1965-67 issues.”
Schweitz added, “These coins are still considered 'modern' and are listed in the 100 Greatest Modern U.S. Coins, but next year will be their 50-year anniversary. As the stigma of 'modern coinage' recedes and these 1964 SMS coins are increasingly recognized as the true rarities they are, we believe this finest-certified 1964 SMS set could someday be worth a half-million dollars.”
Huber said, “We are keenly interested in developing a complete roster of all surviving 1964 SMS coins to determine their exact rarity as closely as possible. We invite anyone who owns examples certified by PCGS or NGC to contact us at info@vdbcoins.com to send us certification numbers, at a minimum, and images if they have them. We will be publishing the roster and some coin images on our www.VDBCoins.com website.”