Doug Winter: The Rosen Report

Boosibri · February 17, 2013 3:44PM

Rosen Report

Great read

stealer · February 17, 2013 4:04PM

Thanks for the link. I wish other dealers would post their transcripts.

RYK · February 17, 2013 8:41PM

Good stuff.

Like many items in the Rosen reports, some is a rehash of prior advice, some is common collecting sense, and some is fresh and interesting.

roadrunner · February 18, 2013 1:19AM

Some interesting stuff. It's also a year out of date though. Things have changed a bit more since 2012.

The 1845 quarter is great value in MS63 at $1500....if... truly an MS63 with no rub and full mint luster. Problem is, that isn't the case for most slabbed 63's from the 1840's.
Another issue is that there aren't enough unc seated quarter set builders to take all the unc 1845 quarters off the market. And those needing a No Motto for a type
set can select a much cheaper 1856-1862 coin that in most cases won't have the rub and weaker luster seen on a pre-1852 MS63. If you want a truly mint state 1840's seated
quarter you almost have to start with solid MS64's, and even in some cases MS65's. The 1840's quarters have more in common with bust half grading than they do with later seated
quarters.

TPRC · February 18, 2013 1:23AM

Good report. Smart guy. Very good advice.

Boosibri · February 18, 2013 1:26AM

Makes me wonder when Charlotte gold will recover. It has been down for years.

Unknown · February 18, 2013 2:01AM

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Unknown · February 18, 2013 2:04AM

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ahopewell55 · February 18, 2013 2:42AM

I was surprised that he didn't have a very high opinion of Secure Plus. He mentioned still seeing doctored coins in these holders. I thought the "sniffer" and PCGS's grading expertise would take care of that. That worries me who is relatively new to the hobby.

bidask · February 18, 2013 3:57AM

I like an experienced dealer with written opinions.

Great interview.

MidLifeCrisis · February 18, 2013 4:22AM

I wonder why Mr. Winter waited until now to post his answers. As roadrunner already pointed out, this is already a year old. Dave Wnuck, who used to be with Coin Rarities Online, posted his answers on February 1st and March 1st of 2012.

The Rosen Report and other investment oriented newsletters always remind me of looking up your horoscope in the newspaper or visiting a fortune teller. After all, these questions actually come from the Rosen Numismatic Advisory Crystal Ball Survey. That's an appropriate name. It's an educated guess by some very knowledgeable people in the industry...but it's still a guess.

I think you're still better off figuring out what coins you like and buying the best examples you can afford when they become available. Maybe you'll make money in the long term; maybe you'll lose money. Either way, you'll enjoy building your collection and owning the coins. Your enjoyment should be valued pretty highly.

bidask · February 18, 2013 4:27AM

My guess is that Doug posted now as more
of a reflection of how well his answers did over the past year.

Unknown · February 18, 2013 4:27AM

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bidask · February 18, 2013 4:28AM

<< <i>I was surprised that he didn't have a very high opinion of Secure Plus. He mentioned still seeing doctored coins in these holders. I thought the "sniffer" and PCGS's grading expertise would take care of that. That worries me who is relatively new to the hobby. >>

I agree, that is a surprise view!

Boosibri · February 19, 2013 7:57AM

Boosibri · February 19, 2013 7:57AM

Boosibri · February 19, 2013 7:58AM

Looks like Doug updated his blog with the 2013 entry of the Rosen report answers. Certainly more relevant.

MrEureka · February 19, 2013 9:49AM

A) Of all worthy slabbable coins (pre-Moderns of sufficient economic value to be submitted) what percentage would you say have been slabbed? Indeed, have the services pretty much penetrated the universe of those coins?

Not including Morgan Dollars and Saints (which still seem to exist in significant quantities as raw coins), I would say that over 75% of all the worthy coins have been slabbed. In the case of areas such as early gold or Proof gold, the percentage of slab-worthy coins that have been graded at least once by the services may be as high as 90%

If so, what are the implications here?

I can think of at least two major implications here. The first is that if NGC and PCGS clean up their population figures reasonably well, we can, for the first time, have a pretty good idea of the absolute rarity for many issues. The second implication is that really “fresh” coins (and by this I mean stuff that has never been to the services) are probably even rarer than we think they are. The next time a really great really fresh deal (like the remainder of the Bass collection or Eric Newman’s coins) come on the market, you will see a level of demand for cons like this unseen in numismatic history.

Interesting that DW mentions "cleaning up the pop figures", because now (with SecurePlus) it's possible (upon a new submission) to automatically delete a prior submission of the same coin from the pop report. And if this is being done, or at some point is done en masse, the new SecurePlus pop report could be very enlightening.

erickso1 · February 19, 2013 11:37AM

Hope he holds off on that letter to Blanchard until after I get finished. Ahhh!

Elcontador · February 19, 2013 12:33PM

a) $25,000 portfolio: one each of the following: Reduced Size Capped Bust Dime (1828-1837) in MS65 with CAC approval (around $10,000), No Motto Seated half Dollar in MS65 with CAC approval (around $7,500), Indian Head half eagle in MS65 with CAC approval (around $12,500). Yes, I realize that adds up to $30,000…

b) $250,000 portfolio: one each of the following, most or all with CAC approval: a nice MS65 Red and Brown Matron Head Large cent from the 1820’s or 1830’s, no 1820 (around $10,000), an MS64 Large Size Bust Quarter 1815-1828 (around $15,000), a true Gem MS65 Capped Bust Half Dollar 1807-1836 (around $10,000), an MS64+ No Motto Seated Liberty Silver Dollar, 1840-1865, (around $10,000). That would be a total of around 50k on a group of nice type coins. Combined with the 30k portfolio above, this would be around 80k on type coins

Imo, the report isn't bad, but I have a few corrections based on the above:

1) The reduced size Capped Bust Dime has gone nowhere in at least the last six years. Wouldn't put it on my list.
2) The idea you can get a true gem MS 65 Capped Bust Half for $10K is misleading. They are not available at that price.

The rest seems okay, though I would not buy the copper unless it was in an OGH.

Dolan · February 19, 2013 12:36PM

<< <i>Hope he holds off on that letter to Blanchard until after I get finished. Ahhh! >>

Doug Winter: The Rosen Report

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