<< <i>I'm oddly amused that folks here would try to explain advanced HS-level mathematics to folks who hasn't had that kind academic or professional training. It's just too hard to do in this type of forum. It's not because folks are bad communicators or bad learners. It's really that this forum is not conducive to that kind of non-linear thinking.
EVP >>
Personally, I blame it all on Sheldon for introducing the idea that coin prices should be bound by some mathematical relationship. Let the quants do that with stock market arbitrage, keep it out of coins & just let the market decide.
<< <i>I'm oddly amused that folks here would try to explain advanced HS-level mathematics to folks who hasn't had that kind academic or professional training. It's just too hard to do in this type of forum. It's not because folks are bad communicators or bad learners. It's really that this forum is not conducive to that kind of non-linear thinking.
EVP >>
I'm often amused by coin collectors period. I collect many things and interact with the players within. I can say without a doubt that coin collectors and coin dealers in general are the most anal, linear and unimaginative lot I've ever dealt with. A lesser number but still a meaningful segment are petty and jealous in nature. Thank goodness for the exceptions as they tend to be the the best natured and most successful.
MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Might as well add the starting point with the coin valued at $1 in 1794. That SOB has increased in value over 10,000,000 times! That said, $1 invested at 8% in 1794 would have a better yield. Too bad my great great... grandpa didn't stick $10 in a 220 year Bond.
My uneducated guess - - Sell within 5 years and there would be a net loss. Keep it off the market for 15 years and it sells for 25m+.
My questions - At what point does an owner get their name associated with a coin. Do you reholder this as the TDN/Legend Dollar? Maybe a contest to name it?
<< <i>I'm oddly amused that folks here would try to explain advanced HS-level mathematics to folks who hasn't had that kind academic or professional training. It's just too hard to do in this type of forum. It's not because folks are bad communicators or bad learners. It's really that this forum is not conducive to that kind of non-linear thinking. EVP >>
Anyone who got through High School Algebra or applied math (even shop class) should have run into exponentials and log functions. I'm also assuming that the average person that plays on the forum is not your average HS grad either. The reason I keep coming back to this forum is precisely for all the non-linear thinking that goes on here.
<< <i> <<We can all agree that a parabolic or exponential chart normally gets real steep at some point. >>
Yup. And what does it tell you when it gets near vertical? >>
In many cases that suggests your time frame is too compacted or your axis needs to be expanded. Other times it may suggest that the first or third bullish waves are complete. But there's usually a 5th one still to come. Gold's 2001-2011 chart may look exponential all by itself. But when put up against the 1966-1980 chart, it's pretty easy to see it's nowhere near vertical (ie doubling within 6 months on multiple occasions). The S&P (1982-2000) and oil (1998 to 2008) also went very steep...much steeper than gold has gone to this point. So what does the 2001-2012 gold verticality tell me? It tells me there's no more than 2 bullish waves completed with a 3rd one to go. It's also possible that there is only 1 major wave completed and it's still in the 2nd set. It will become far more vertical than it currently is.
Two quants go on a fishing trip. They rent all the equipment: the reels, the rods, the wading suits, the rowboat, the car, and even a cabin in the woods. They spend a fortune.
The first day they go fishing, but they don’t catch anything.
The same thing happens on the second day, and on the third day.
It goes on like this until finally, on the last day of their vacation, one of the quants catches a fish.
As they’re driving home they’re really depressed. One quant turns to the other and says, “Do you realize that this one lousy fish we caught cost us $1500?”
The other quant says, “Wow! It’s a good thing we didn’t catch any more!
MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Let's see another half-dozen points on that graph in the next 50 years and see how the trendline looks. Adjusted for true inflation, it might be even more interesting. From a mathematical, statistical point of view, I'd consider the cluster of points in the 1980s-1990s as a single data point. I'd say that this graph or the flip of a coin might have equal ability to predict the future value of this coin.
Unlike TDN, and a handful of others, coins in this league are so far out of my realm that I likely have nothing to contribute to the discussion. I think Legend might do great with this. Then again, if it tanked to $4M or $6M, would anyone be truly shocked? Likely they will either come out looking like geniuses or fools. There's a little room in between, but probably not too much. Hold it for long enough and inflation alone will make it seem like a shrewd investment at the next sale.
Let's see another half-dozen points on that graph in the next 50 years and see how the trendline looks. Adjusted for true inflation, it might be even more interesting. From a mathematical, statistical point of view, I'd consider the cluster of points in the 1980s-1990s as a single data point. I'd say that this graph or the flip of a coin might have equal ability to predict the future value of this coin.
Unlike TDN, and a handful of others, coins in this league are so far out of my realm that I likely have nothing to contribute to the discussion. I think Legend might do great with this. Then again, if it tanked to $4M or $6M, would anyone be truly shocked? Likely they will either come out looking like geniuses or fools. There's a little room in between, but probably not too much. Hold it for long enough and inflation alone will make it seem like a shrewd investment at the next sale. >>
I would be truly shocked if the coin resold for 4-6 million. I think the owners at the very least have staying power. Secondly the owners have personally and publically believed that great rare coins are undervalued relative to the art market.
By putting their money where their mouth is they may in fact put numismatics on the radar of those who control large sums of money where it had not been on the radar before.
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
If you want coins to prosper you need to get the younger money crowd to play, they are spoiled as they like to be wined and dined and have the latest tech toys around them. Musturd stained dealers and BO smelling overweight collectors will be a turnoff for the young mobile money players.
Mark NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!! working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!
Realone- I have thought for years your avatar was your actual pic. I guess i can learn something new everyday after all. EVERY show i have ever been to i have seen multiple overweight collectors with all thier paper spread out all over the showcases with BO to boot. You have to be on the look out for the scooter drivers as they are not paying attention.
I bet Legend/Charmy?Field and others don't have that issue but plenty do.
Bruce Lee huh
Mark NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!! working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!
Maybe already settled, but a semi-log chart is standard in economics for prices which increase at about the same *proportion* per year. That is P_t = P_0*(1+r)^t so log(P_t) = log(P_0) + t*log(1+r) , and this shows log(P_t) is linear in time t .
A linear chart would have a straight line for prices which increase by the same *amount* per year, like: P_t = P_0 + b*t where b is the constant amount of increase per unit of time (say, year).
If there are only 2 clusters of points on the graph, you can't distinguish log (expontential) vs. linear growth, but there were 3 on TDNs chart, plus the others not on it that he mentioned.
<< <i>I'm oddly amused that folks here would try to explain advanced HS-level mathematics to folks who hasn't had that kind academic or professional training. It's just too hard to do in this type of forum. It's not because folks are bad communicators or bad learners. It's really that this forum is not conducive to that kind of non-linear thinking.
EVP >>
I'm often amused by coin collectors period. I collect many things and interact with the players within. I can say without a doubt that coin collectors and coin dealers in general are the most anal, linear and unimaginative lot I've ever dealt with. A lesser number but still a meaningful segment are petty and jealous in nature. Thank goodness for the exceptions as they tend to be the the best natured and most successful.
MJ >>
Pretty sure you left out the buttkissers -- don't forget them!
<< <i>I'm oddly amused that folks here would try to explain advanced HS-level mathematics to folks who hasn't had that kind academic or professional training. It's just too hard to do in this type of forum. It's not because folks are bad communicators or bad learners. It's really that this forum is not conducive to that kind of non-linear thinking.
EVP >>
I'm often amused by coin collectors period. I collect many things and interact with the players within. I can say without a doubt that coin collectors and coin dealers in general are the most anal, linear and unimaginative lot I've ever dealt with. A lesser number but still a meaningful segment are petty and jealous in nature. Thank goodness for the exceptions as they tend to be the the best natured and most successful.
MJ >>
Pretty sure you left out the buttkissers -- don't forget them! >>
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>I'm oddly amused that folks here would try to explain advanced HS-level mathematics to folks who hasn't had that kind academic or professional training. It's just too hard to do in this type of forum. It's not because folks are bad communicators or bad learners. It's really that this forum is not conducive to that kind of non-linear thinking.
EVP >>
I'm often amused by coin collectors period. I collect many things and interact with the players within. I can say without a doubt that coin collectors and coin dealers in general are the most anal, linear and unimaginative lot I've ever dealt with. A lesser number but still a meaningful segment are petty and jealous in nature. Thank goodness for the exceptions as they tend to be the the best natured and most successful.
MJ >>
Pretty sure you left out the buttkissers -- don't forget them! >>
I didn't forget as they come in all areas pretty equally just like the clueless.
MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Here is another graph with the sales history for the coin. This one was published in the Orange County Register newspaper to accompany an article about the sale.
The Specimen 1794 dollar is truly a national treasure, and TDN is to be congratulated for his historic purchase!
I have seen quite a few posts from naysayers questioning the price, and the merits of the strategy to jump the bid. Going into the sale, I had strong confidence on how the coin would do. Just read my quotes from interviews weeks and months before the sale, as well post-sale. The ONLY reason the coin was put up for auction was that there were multiple parties interested the coin at REAL numbers, and I figured they should fight it out amongst themselves. While it could not be seen on the limited video feed from the auction, there were 4 other bidders in the room (beyond Legend) that were poised to bid, and I am personnally aware of at least 3 of them that were at $8 million and up (all-in) for their bidding. Prior to the sale, one of those bidders even discussed with me his thoughts of jumping the bid to startle, and hopefully, shut down the competition. (He had been planning on his top bid at $8M to $8.5M hammer!) As you might expect, I was keenly interested in tracking the bid and the bidders live from the auction floor. Following the $5.5M bid, each of Legend's 4 competitors were waiting, anticipating the final call for a bid and waiting to the last second before raising their bidder's card, as that was clearly their strategy at that point. (Why else would Heritage CEO Greg Rohan be on the auction floor himself, with bidder card in hand, and still on the phone with a bidder beyond the $5.5M level, if he wasn't planning on bidding higher himself?) That last-second bidding strategy is supposed to lull the competition into thinking they had the coin cheap, and then disappoint them and catch them off-guard when pushed to higher levels, so that they are second-guessing their bids. As it turned out, that last-second bidding method froze a floor bidder and enabled a telephone bidder to get a bargain on the 1792 half disme, just one lot before the 1794 dollar. (After the sale, that floor bidder regretted not bidding higher, and he admitted to me that when the bid had hung still for so long, he second-guessed his original limit. He later contacted the winning bidder to offer a higher price, but that was turned down.)
Clearly, Legend's shock and awe strategy of jumping the bid early proved to be the winning strategy. To that point, let me relay a live example where choosing not to jump a bid ended up in an ultimate unwinnable bidding war. Several years ago, I attended a live auction to bid on a particularly rare cent. I figured the coin at $150K all-in, and was prepared to bid that high. My strategy was to let the other bidders fight it out, and then I would come in at the end with the (hopefully) last and successful bid. The coin opened at $40K with no immediate bidders. I was stunned. The auctioneer repeated the bid, then started closing the lot -- $40K going once, $40K going twice, the coin is already sold to the book and I need a bid of $40K to top it, last call at $40K. Well, I thought I would get it cheap and then raised my card at $40K. Suddenly the bidding started and went up increment by increment, passing $50K, $75K, $100K, $125K. It seemed that the back and forth bidding reassured each bidder of the coin's value, and the bidding continued. I was expecting to go up to $150K all in, but the coin soon reached $150K hammer, and kept on going. Ultimately, the coin sold for $180K hammer, and NOT to me. When I spoke to the other bidders after the sale, they all commented that the price support of all of the underbidding gave them the comfort to keep bidding higher, beyond their original limit. However, if I had answered the opening bid with a jumped bid of $125K, with no underbidders directly below me, I'm sure I would have dissuaded the competition and taken home the prize at a more favorable price.
Again, heartly congratulations to TDN and Legend on acquiring a truly historic National Treasure!
<< <i>I'm oddly amused that folks here would try to explain advanced HS-level mathematics to folks who hasn't had that kind academic or professional training. It's just too hard to do in this type of forum. It's not because folks are bad communicators or bad learners. It's really that this forum is not conducive to that kind of non-linear thinking.
EVP >>
I'm often amused by coin collectors period. I collect many things and interact with the players within. I can say without a doubt that coin collectors and coin dealers in general are the most anal, linear and unimaginative lot I've ever dealt with. A lesser number but still a meaningful segment are petty and jealous in nature. Thank goodness for the exceptions as they tend to be the the best natured and most successful.
MJ >>
Pretty sure you left out the buttkissers -- don't forget them! >>
I didn't forget as they come in all areas pretty equally just like the clueless.
Kudo's to Cardinal for supplying that detailed analysis. As TDN had already said, there WERE bidders right under him.
One question I have on that price time line is why Andy Lustig's purchase and then sale of that coin in the 1989-1993 era is not listed? Seems to me it should be part of the coin's history. Could the reason be that the coin went to over $1 MILL then fell back by over 50% in that period (ie a disruption in the constant higher price trend). Those 2 data points might also interrupt the relatively straight, semi-log price trend chart shown on the previous page. Just tossin' out ideas here. Can never have enough data...or cowbell.
I was later corrected on the above. There was no actual sale of the coin at $1 MILL in the 1989-90 market though that was a price level it was being considered at. And it's eventual sale in 1992 is listed.
<< <i>If there are only 2 clusters of points on the graph, you can't distinguish log (expontential) vs. linear growth, but there were 3 on TDNs chart, plus the others not on it that he mentioned. >>
At the time the chart was made, that was a$10 million extrapolation, not a third data point.
Cardinal, thank you for the behind the scenes look at what occured at the historic bidding of this 1794 dollar......your thoughts and first hand experiences in previous auctions are really fascinating.
Thanks for shaing.
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>Cardinal, thank you for the behind the scenes look at what occured at the historic bidding of this 1794 dollar......your thoughts and first hand experiences in previous auctions are really fascinating.
Thanks for shaing. >>
I agree in spades. I learned a ton. I'm grateful.
MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>If there are only 2 clusters of points on the graph, you can't distinguish log (expontential) vs. linear growth, but there were 3 on TDNs chart, plus the others not on it that he mentioned. >>
At the time the chart was made, that was a$10 million extrapolation, not a third data point. >>
well go into Cardinal's post just above and use excel to plot the sales to 2013. You'll find the trend is a line on semi-log paper. The line is actually a very, very good fit.
That said, the trend taken 15 years out puts a valuation on it at somewhere around $75,000,000. Which leads me into a question I wanted to ask without insulting anyone:
<< <i>If there are only 2 clusters of points on the graph, you can't distinguish log (expontential) vs. linear growth, but there were 3 on TDNs chart, plus the others not on it that he mentioned. >>
At the time the chart was made, that was a$10 million extrapolation, not a third data point. >>
well go into Cardinal's post just above and use excel to plot the sales to 2013. You'll find the trend is a line on semi-log paper. The line is actually a very, very good fit.
That said, the trend taken 15 years out puts a valuation on it at somewhere around $75,000,000. Which leads me into a question I wanted to ask without insulting anyone:
When does the trend end? >>
When it's not your friend. MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
It is an interesting trivial note that the 1794 $1 value throws excel for a curve, pun intended, and the trend line is destroyed by the addition of that data point.
edit: and the trendline says you could have gone to around $11mil
<< <i>Kudo's to Cardinal for supplying that detailed analysis. As TDN had already said, there WERE bidders right under him.
One question I have on that price time line is why Andy Lustig's purchase and then sale of that coin in the 1989-1993 era is not listed? >>
Correct me if I'm wrong, but didnt he acquire the coin at or just after the miller/carmichael sale in 86 and then sell it in the superior sale of 91? Those data points are listed quite appropriately. With regards to the peak during his ownership, I hardly think it appropriate to put declined offers on a transaction history chart.
You're not wrong. I thought the coin sold around the $1 MILL mark in the '89-'90 market. While it may have been priced around that level, there was no actual transaction.
This thread has more "staying power" than I would have imagined!
Frankly I think the speculation and opinions of those so far removed from the transaction are irrelevant as are future projections on later price. Few of us have the financial ability to make such a transaction and are therefore are illequiped to analyze it in the appropriate context.
Congratulations to the new owners and the past owners, you own or have owned a legitimate part of history.
<< <i>This thread has more "staying power" than I would have imagined!
Frankly I think the speculation and opinions of those so far removed from the transaction are irrelevant as are future projections on later price. Few of us have the financial ability to make such a transaction and are therefore are illequiped to analyze it in the appropriate context.
Congratulations to the new owners and the past owners, you own or have owned a legitimate part of history. >>
I do not make future price predictions other than to say this: I wager that the general concensus on the prospects of its price ever reaching $10M in 1991 (when the coin sold for $500k) would be very similar to the concensus now on the prospects of its price ever reaching $100M.
According to the Star-Ledger newspaper of New Jersey, Laura Sperber of Legend Numismatists and her partners had been willing to bid as much as $15 million for the coin.
<< <i>...plus an exponential extrapolation that you turned into a self fulfilling prophecy with your jump bid. >>
This nugget hits the nail on the head. >>
No, it does not. Kindly stick to the FACTS. The fact is that this graph was prepared in 2010 by an independent numismatic researcher after the Cardinal PURCHASE. There is no exponential extrapolation self fulfilling prophecy - unless you are implying that Cardinal's purchase doesn't count as well as his sale? >>
My understanding is that Cardinal did not buy the coin from Contursi for cash. Instead, multiple coins were traded for the 1794 using inflated values in the trade, similar to the old joke about trading two $500 alley cats for a $1000 mongrel dog. If my understanding is incorrect, and Cardinal paid cash, I apologize in advance.
<< <i>I do not make future price predictions other than to say this: I wager that the general concensus on the prospects of its price ever reaching $10M in 1991 (when the coin sold for $500k) would be very similar to the concensus now on the prospects of its price ever reaching $100M. >>
Yes. Well said. Reinforces the notion that I hold on to my silver coins for price appreciation.
"Poets are the unacknowledged legislators of the world." PBShelley
<< <i>I'm oddly amused that folks here would try to explain advanced HS-level mathematics to folks who hasn't had that kind academic or professional training. It's just too hard to do in this type of forum. It's not because folks are bad communicators or bad learners. It's really that this forum is not conducive to that kind of non-linear thinking.
EVP >>
And who is the arbiter that decides who is and who is not capable of non-linear cogitation?
"Poets are the unacknowledged legislators of the world." PBShelley
<< <i>I'm oddly amused that folks here would try to explain advanced HS-level mathematics to folks who hasn't had that kind academic or professional training. It's just too hard to do in this type of forum. It's not because folks are bad communicators or bad learners. It's really that this forum is not conducive to that kind of non-linear thinking.
EVP >>
And who is the arbiter that decides who is and who is not capable of non-linear cogitation? >>
ROFL.. free cigarette at Balt
"People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf." - Geo. Orwell
According to the Star-Ledger newspaper of New Jersey, Laura Sperber of Legend Numismatists and her partners had been willing to bid as much as $15 million for the coin.
How would they know that?
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>[My understanding is that Cardinal did not buy the coin from Contursi for cash. Instead, multiple coins were traded for the 1794 using inflated values in the trade, similar to the old joke about trading two $500 alley cats for a $1000 mongrel dog. If my understanding is incorrect, and Cardinal paid cash, I apologize in advance. >>
I have no idea how you came to that "understanding." Steve Contursi was paid in cash, just cash. He received no coins whatsoever as part of the deal.
<< <i>[My understanding is that Cardinal did not buy the coin from Contursi for cash. Instead, multiple coins were traded for the 1794 using inflated values in the trade, similar to the old joke about trading two $500 alley cats for a $1000 mongrel dog. If my understanding is incorrect, and Cardinal paid cash, I apologize in advance. >>
I have no idea how you came to that "understanding." Steve Contursi was paid in cash, just cash. He received no coins whatsoever as part of the deal. >>
that is good to know, thanks.
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>[My understanding is that Cardinal did not buy the coin from Contursi for cash. Instead, multiple coins were traded for the 1794 using inflated values in the trade, similar to the old joke about trading two $500 alley cats for a $1000 mongrel dog. If my understanding is incorrect, and Cardinal paid cash, I apologize in advance. >>
I have no idea how you came to that "understanding." Steve Contursi was paid in cash, just cash. He received no coins whatsoever as part of the deal. >>
Bags and bags of nickels...........
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Clearly that chart shows once it broke through the chinny chin chin resistance area it was clear sailing.............MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
A hundred million here, a hundred million there and pretty soon you're talking real money!
So many factors could change the progression, but I think it's safe to say that if the only way out of our entitlement obligations is to inflate them away that the price will be higher in the future
Comments
<< <i>I'm oddly amused that folks here would try to explain advanced HS-level mathematics to folks who hasn't had that kind academic or professional training. It's just too hard to do in this type of forum. It's not because folks are bad communicators or bad learners. It's really that this forum is not conducive to that kind of non-linear thinking.
EVP >>
Personally, I blame it all on Sheldon for introducing the idea that coin prices should be bound by some mathematical relationship. Let the quants do that with stock market arbitrage, keep it out of coins & just let the market decide.
<< <i>I'm oddly amused that folks here would try to explain advanced HS-level mathematics to folks who hasn't had that kind academic or professional training. It's just too hard to do in this type of forum. It's not because folks are bad communicators or bad learners. It's really that this forum is not conducive to that kind of non-linear thinking.
EVP >>
I'm often amused by coin collectors period. I collect many things and interact with the players within. I can say without a doubt that coin collectors and coin dealers in general are the most anal, linear and unimaginative lot I've ever dealt with. A lesser number but still a meaningful segment are petty and jealous in nature. Thank goodness for the exceptions as they tend to be the the best natured and most successful.
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
My uneducated guess - - Sell within 5 years and there would be a net loss. Keep it off the market for 15 years and it sells for 25m+.
My questions - At what point does an owner get their name associated with a coin. Do you reholder this as the TDN/Legend Dollar? Maybe a contest to name it?
Really, shouldn't you, per chaos theory, be using discontinuous equations if you're going to calculate values for black swan events
<< <i>I'm oddly amused that folks here would try to explain advanced HS-level mathematics to folks who hasn't had that kind academic or professional training. It's just too hard to do in this type of forum. It's not because folks are bad communicators or bad learners. It's really that this forum is not conducive to that kind of non-linear thinking.
EVP >>
Anyone who got through High School Algebra or applied math (even shop class) should have run into exponentials and log functions. I'm also assuming that the average person that
plays on the forum is not your average HS grad either. The reason I keep coming back to this forum is precisely for all the non-linear thinking that goes on here.
<< <i> <<We can all agree that a parabolic or exponential chart normally gets real steep at some point. >>
Yup. And what does it tell you when it gets near vertical? >>
What real bubbles have looked like
In many cases that suggests your time frame is too compacted or your axis needs to be expanded. Other times it may suggest that the first or third bullish waves are complete.
But there's usually a 5th one still to come. Gold's 2001-2011 chart may look exponential all by itself. But when put up against the 1966-1980 chart, it's pretty easy to see it's nowhere
near vertical (ie doubling within 6 months on multiple occasions). The S&P (1982-2000) and oil (1998 to 2008) also went very steep...much steeper than gold has gone to this point.
So what does the 2001-2012 gold verticality tell me? It tells me there's no more than 2 bullish waves completed with a 3rd one to go. It's also possible that there is only 1 major wave
completed and it's still in the 2nd set. It will become far more vertical than it currently is.
<< <i>So is the art world full of these math discussions as well? >>
Of course. Golden Rectangles, Fibonnacci spirals, etc. are all present there as well.
Anyone notice that the sum of 1794 ($) is a Fib number? Wouldn't be surprised if Legend's bid has a Fib relationship as well.
The first day they go fishing, but they don’t catch anything.
The same thing happens on the second day, and on the third day.
It goes on like this until finally, on the last day of their vacation, one of the quants catches a fish.
As they’re driving home they’re really depressed. One quant turns to the other and says, “Do you realize that this one lousy fish we caught cost us $1500?”
The other quant says, “Wow! It’s a good thing we didn’t catch any more!
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
MJ's comments were brilliant.
Let's see another half-dozen points on that graph in the next 50 years and see how the trendline looks. Adjusted for true inflation, it might be even more interesting. From a mathematical, statistical point of view, I'd consider the cluster of points in the 1980s-1990s as a single data point. I'd say that this graph or the flip of a coin might have equal ability to predict the future value of this coin.
Unlike TDN, and a handful of others, coins in this league are so far out of my realm that I likely have nothing to contribute to the discussion. I think Legend might do great with this. Then again, if it tanked to $4M or $6M, would anyone be truly shocked? Likely they will either come out looking like geniuses or fools. There's a little room in between, but probably not too much. Hold it for long enough and inflation alone will make it seem like a shrewd investment at the next sale.
<< <i>What a great thread!!!! Entertaining.
MJ's comments were brilliant.
Let's see another half-dozen points on that graph in the next 50 years and see how the trendline looks. Adjusted for true inflation, it might be even more interesting. From a mathematical, statistical point of view, I'd consider the cluster of points in the 1980s-1990s as a single data point. I'd say that this graph or the flip of a coin might have equal ability to predict the future value of this coin.
Unlike TDN, and a handful of others, coins in this league are so far out of my realm that I likely have nothing to contribute to the discussion. I think Legend might do great with this. Then again, if it tanked to $4M or $6M, would anyone be truly shocked? Likely they will either come out looking like geniuses or fools. There's a little room in between, but probably not too much. Hold it for long enough and inflation alone will make it seem like a shrewd investment at the next sale. >>
I would be truly shocked if the coin resold for 4-6 million.
I think the owners at the very least have staying power. Secondly the owners have personally
and publically believed that great rare coins are undervalued relative to the art
market.
By putting their money where their mouth is they may in fact
put numismatics on the radar of those who control large sums
of money where it had not been on the radar before.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!!
working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!
RIP "BEAR"
I bet Legend/Charmy?Field and others don't have that issue but plenty do.
Bruce Lee huh
NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!!
working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!
RIP "BEAR"
That is P_t = P_0*(1+r)^t
so log(P_t) = log(P_0) + t*log(1+r) ,
and this shows log(P_t) is linear in time t .
A linear chart would have a straight line for prices which increase by the same *amount* per year, like:
P_t = P_0 + b*t where b is the constant amount of increase per unit of time (say, year).
If there are only 2 clusters of points on the graph, you can't distinguish log (expontential) vs. linear growth,
but there were 3 on TDNs chart, plus the others not on it that he mentioned.
<< <i>
<< <i>I'm oddly amused that folks here would try to explain advanced HS-level mathematics to folks who hasn't had that kind academic or professional training. It's just too hard to do in this type of forum. It's not because folks are bad communicators or bad learners. It's really that this forum is not conducive to that kind of non-linear thinking.
EVP >>
I'm often amused by coin collectors period. I collect many things and interact with the players within. I can say without a doubt that coin collectors and coin dealers in general are the most anal, linear and unimaginative lot I've ever dealt with. A lesser number but still a meaningful segment are petty and jealous in nature. Thank goodness for the exceptions as they tend to be the the best natured and most successful.
MJ >>
Pretty sure you left out the buttkissers -- don't forget them!
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I'm oddly amused that folks here would try to explain advanced HS-level mathematics to folks who hasn't had that kind academic or professional training. It's just too hard to do in this type of forum. It's not because folks are bad communicators or bad learners. It's really that this forum is not conducive to that kind of non-linear thinking.
EVP >>
I'm often amused by coin collectors period. I collect many things and interact with the players within. I can say without a doubt that coin collectors and coin dealers in general are the most anal, linear and unimaginative lot I've ever dealt with. A lesser number but still a meaningful segment are petty and jealous in nature. Thank goodness for the exceptions as they tend to be the the best natured and most successful.
MJ >>
Pretty sure you left out the buttkissers -- don't forget them! >>
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I'm oddly amused that folks here would try to explain advanced HS-level mathematics to folks who hasn't had that kind academic or professional training. It's just too hard to do in this type of forum. It's not because folks are bad communicators or bad learners. It's really that this forum is not conducive to that kind of non-linear thinking.
EVP >>
I'm often amused by coin collectors period. I collect many things and interact with the players within. I can say without a doubt that coin collectors and coin dealers in general are the most anal, linear and unimaginative lot I've ever dealt with. A lesser number but still a meaningful segment are petty and jealous in nature. Thank goodness for the exceptions as they tend to be the the best natured and most successful.
MJ >>
Pretty sure you left out the buttkissers -- don't forget them! >>
I didn't forget as they come in all areas pretty equally just like the clueless.
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
The Specimen 1794 dollar is truly a national treasure, and TDN is to be congratulated for his historic purchase!
I have seen quite a few posts from naysayers questioning the price, and the merits of the strategy to jump the bid. Going into the sale, I had strong confidence on how the coin would do. Just read my quotes from interviews weeks and months before the sale, as well post-sale. The ONLY reason the coin was put up for auction was that there were multiple parties interested the coin at REAL numbers, and I figured they should fight it out amongst themselves. While it could not be seen on the limited video feed from the auction, there were 4 other bidders in the room (beyond Legend) that were poised to bid, and I am personnally aware of at least 3 of them that were at $8 million and up (all-in) for their bidding. Prior to the sale, one of those bidders even discussed with me his thoughts of jumping the bid to startle, and hopefully, shut down the competition. (He had been planning on his top bid at $8M to $8.5M hammer!) As you might expect, I was keenly interested in tracking the bid and the bidders live from the auction floor. Following the $5.5M bid, each of Legend's 4 competitors were waiting, anticipating the final call for a bid and waiting to the last second before raising their bidder's card, as that was clearly their strategy at that point. (Why else would Heritage CEO Greg Rohan be on the auction floor himself, with bidder card in hand, and still on the phone with a bidder beyond the $5.5M level, if he wasn't planning on bidding higher himself?) That last-second bidding strategy is supposed to lull the competition into thinking they had the coin cheap, and then disappoint them and catch them off-guard when pushed to higher levels, so that they are second-guessing their bids. As it turned out, that last-second bidding method froze a floor bidder and enabled a telephone bidder to get a bargain on the 1792 half disme, just one lot before the 1794 dollar. (After the sale, that floor bidder regretted not bidding higher, and he admitted to me that when the bid had hung still for so long, he second-guessed his original limit. He later contacted the winning bidder to offer a higher price, but that was turned down.)
Clearly, Legend's shock and awe strategy of jumping the bid early proved to be the winning strategy. To that point, let me relay a live example where choosing not to jump a bid ended up in an ultimate unwinnable bidding war. Several years ago, I attended a live auction to bid on a particularly rare cent. I figured the coin at $150K all-in, and was prepared to bid that high. My strategy was to let the other bidders fight it out, and then I would come in at the end with the (hopefully) last and successful bid. The coin opened at $40K with no immediate bidders. I was stunned. The auctioneer repeated the bid, then started closing the lot -- $40K going once, $40K going twice, the coin is already sold to the book and I need a bid of $40K to top it, last call at $40K. Well, I thought I would get it cheap and then raised my card at $40K. Suddenly the bidding started and went up increment by increment, passing $50K, $75K, $100K, $125K. It seemed that the back and forth bidding reassured each bidder of the coin's value, and the bidding continued. I was expecting to go up to $150K all in, but the coin soon reached $150K hammer, and kept on going. Ultimately, the coin sold for $180K hammer, and NOT to me. When I spoke to the other bidders after the sale, they all commented that the price support of all of the underbidding gave them the comfort to keep bidding higher, beyond their original limit. However, if I had answered the opening bid with a jumped bid of $125K, with no underbidders directly below me, I'm sure I would have dissuaded the competition and taken home the prize at a more favorable price.
Again, heartly congratulations to TDN and Legend on acquiring a truly historic National Treasure!
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I'm oddly amused that folks here would try to explain advanced HS-level mathematics to folks who hasn't had that kind academic or professional training. It's just too hard to do in this type of forum. It's not because folks are bad communicators or bad learners. It's really that this forum is not conducive to that kind of non-linear thinking.
EVP >>
I'm often amused by coin collectors period. I collect many things and interact with the players within. I can say without a doubt that coin collectors and coin dealers in general are the most anal, linear and unimaginative lot I've ever dealt with. A lesser number but still a meaningful segment are petty and jealous in nature. Thank goodness for the exceptions as they tend to be the the best natured and most successful.
MJ >>
Pretty sure you left out the buttkissers -- don't forget them! >>
I didn't forget as they come in all areas pretty equally just like the clueless.
MJ >>
Heartfelt kisses!
One question I have on that price time line is why Andy Lustig's purchase and then sale of that coin in the 1989-1993 era is not listed? Seems to me it should be part of the coin's
history. Could the reason be that the coin went to over $1 MILL then fell back by over 50% in that period (ie a disruption in the constant higher price trend). Those 2 data points
might also interrupt the relatively straight, semi-log price trend chart shown on the previous page. Just tossin' out ideas here. Can never have enough data...or cowbell.
I was later corrected on the above. There was no actual sale of the coin at $1 MILL in the 1989-90 market though that was a price level it was being considered at.
And it's eventual sale in 1992 is listed.
<< <i>If there are only 2 clusters of points on the graph, you can't distinguish log (expontential) vs. linear growth,
but there were 3 on TDNs chart, plus the others not on it that he mentioned. >>
At the time the chart was made, that was a$10 million extrapolation, not a third data point.
Thanks for shaing.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>Cardinal, thank you for the behind the scenes look at what occured at the historic bidding of this 1794 dollar......your thoughts and first hand experiences in previous auctions are really fascinating.
Thanks for shaing.
I agree in spades. I learned a ton. I'm grateful.
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>
<< <i>If there are only 2 clusters of points on the graph, you can't distinguish log (expontential) vs. linear growth,
but there were 3 on TDNs chart, plus the others not on it that he mentioned. >>
At the time the chart was made, that was a$10 million extrapolation, not a third data point. >>
well go into Cardinal's post just above and use excel to plot the sales to 2013. You'll find the trend is a line on semi-log paper. The line is actually a very, very good fit.
That said, the trend taken 15 years out puts a valuation on it at somewhere around $75,000,000. Which leads me into a question I wanted to ask without insulting anyone:
When does the trend end?
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>If there are only 2 clusters of points on the graph, you can't distinguish log (expontential) vs. linear growth,
but there were 3 on TDNs chart, plus the others not on it that he mentioned. >>
At the time the chart was made, that was a$10 million extrapolation, not a third data point. >>
well go into Cardinal's post just above and use excel to plot the sales to 2013. You'll find the trend is a line on semi-log paper. The line is actually a very, very good fit.
That said, the trend taken 15 years out puts a valuation on it at somewhere around $75,000,000. Which leads me into a question I wanted to ask without insulting anyone:
When does the trend end? >>
When it's not your friend. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
edit: and the trendline says you could have gone to around $11mil
<< <i>Kudo's to Cardinal for supplying that detailed analysis. As TDN had already said, there WERE bidders right under him.
One question I have on that price time line is why Andy Lustig's purchase and then sale of that coin in the 1989-1993 era is not listed? >>
Correct me if I'm wrong, but didnt he acquire the coin at or just after the miller/carmichael sale in 86 and then sell it in the superior sale of 91? Those data points are listed quite appropriately. With regards to the peak during his ownership, I hardly think it appropriate to put declined offers on a transaction history chart.
Frankly I think the speculation and opinions of those so far removed from the transaction are irrelevant as are future projections on later price. Few of us have the financial ability to make such a transaction and are therefore are illequiped to analyze it in the appropriate context.
Congratulations to the new owners and the past owners, you own or have owned a legitimate part of history.
Latin American Collection
<< <i>This thread has more "staying power" than I would have imagined!
Frankly I think the speculation and opinions of those so far removed from the transaction are irrelevant as are future projections on later price. Few of us have the financial ability to make such a transaction and are therefore are illequiped to analyze it in the appropriate context.
Congratulations to the new owners and the past owners, you own or have owned a legitimate part of history. >>
I agree with all of the above.
ABC News Story
According to the Star-Ledger newspaper of New Jersey, Laura Sperber of Legend Numismatists and her partners had been willing to bid as much as $15 million for the coin.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>...plus an exponential extrapolation that you turned into a self fulfilling prophecy with your jump bid. >>
This nugget hits the nail on the head. >>
No, it does not. Kindly stick to the FACTS. The fact is that this graph was prepared in 2010 by an independent numismatic researcher after the Cardinal PURCHASE. There is no exponential extrapolation self fulfilling prophecy - unless you are implying that Cardinal's purchase doesn't count as well as his sale? >>
My understanding is that Cardinal did not buy the coin from Contursi for cash. Instead, multiple coins were traded for the 1794 using inflated values in the trade, similar to the old joke about trading two $500 alley cats for a $1000 mongrel dog. If my understanding is incorrect, and Cardinal paid cash, I apologize in advance.
<< <i>I do not make future price predictions other than to say this: I wager that the general concensus on the prospects of its price ever reaching $10M in 1991 (when the coin sold for $500k) would be very similar to the concensus now on the prospects of its price ever reaching $100M.
Yes. Well said.
Reinforces the notion that I hold on to my silver coins for price appreciation.
<< <i>I'm oddly amused that folks here would try to explain advanced HS-level mathematics to folks who hasn't had that kind academic or professional training. It's just too hard to do in this type of forum. It's not because folks are bad communicators or bad learners. It's really that this forum is not conducive to that kind of non-linear thinking.
EVP >>
And who is the arbiter that decides who is and who is not capable of non-linear cogitation?
<< <i>
<< <i>I'm oddly amused that folks here would try to explain advanced HS-level mathematics to folks who hasn't had that kind academic or professional training. It's just too hard to do in this type of forum. It's not because folks are bad communicators or bad learners. It's really that this forum is not conducive to that kind of non-linear thinking.
EVP >>
And who is the arbiter that decides who is and who is not capable of non-linear cogitation? >>
ROFL.. free cigarette at Balt
How would they know that?
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>[My understanding is that Cardinal did not buy the coin from Contursi for cash. Instead, multiple coins were traded for the 1794 using inflated values in the trade, similar to the old joke about trading two $500 alley cats for a $1000 mongrel dog. If my understanding is incorrect, and Cardinal paid cash, I apologize in advance. >>
I have no idea how you came to that "understanding." Steve Contursi was paid in cash, just cash. He received no coins whatsoever as part of the deal.
<< <i>
<< <i>[My understanding is that Cardinal did not buy the coin from Contursi for cash. Instead, multiple coins were traded for the 1794 using inflated values in the trade, similar to the old joke about trading two $500 alley cats for a $1000 mongrel dog. If my understanding is incorrect, and Cardinal paid cash, I apologize in advance. >>
I have no idea how you came to that "understanding." Steve Contursi was paid in cash, just cash. He received no coins whatsoever as part of the deal. >>
that is good to know, thanks.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>
<< <i>[My understanding is that Cardinal did not buy the coin from Contursi for cash. Instead, multiple coins were traded for the 1794 using inflated values in the trade, similar to the old joke about trading two $500 alley cats for a $1000 mongrel dog. If my understanding is incorrect, and Cardinal paid cash, I apologize in advance. >>
I have no idea how you came to that "understanding." Steve Contursi was paid in cash, just cash. He received no coins whatsoever as part of the deal. >>
Bags and bags of nickels...........
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>gonna have to post the graph before long. don't know how long you can keep it from 'em. >>
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
What kills me is the 1947 price. As expensive as a car, about.
So many factors could change the progression, but I think it's safe to say that if the only way out of our entitlement obligations is to inflate them away that the price will be higher in the future