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Doug Winter Blog on the 1794 Dollar

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  • adamlaneusadamlaneus Posts: 6,969 ✭✭✭
    If it were a lesser coin, I could see an argument for it not becoming so wanted.

    But this is like, the first dollar. Or the second if you count the pattern. Or the zeroth dollar if you count it as a unique proof.
    So I bet someone will ALWAYS want it.
  • AnalystAnalyst Posts: 1,438 ✭✭✭
    Winter: <<Let’s say the coin was stalling at the 7 million dollar mark. If you were serious enough to be player at $7 million, you’d be crazy not to pay $8 million and immediately have the coin set the all-time record. But if you were at $8 million, why not pay $10 million? Yes, I know this sounds odd but hear me out.>>

    ‭1. It is not clear that the bidding would otherwise have reached $7 million. Please read my report.

    ‭2. Is it rational to pay 8 rather than 7, or to pay 10 rather than 8? In the Internet age, the bidding events are now a public record. Prospective buyers in the future can easily find out what happened at CoinWeek.com. David Lisot video-recorded the bidding for this coin.


    Cardinal Collection Results, Part 1: 1792 to 1794

    Video

    The Top Ten Auction Records for Coins & Patterns


    Winter: <<The Childs -1804 Dollar- is the “best of the best” and I think that its suddenly a $15-20 million dollar coin, maybe even more.>>

    ‭3. It does not follow, logically, that the Childs 1804 dollar, which was valued in the $7 to $10 million range, would all the sudden be valued at $15 to $20 million “maybe even more” because this coin sells for $10 million. These are two very different kinds of coins.

    Winter: << .. if you own a Gem 1795 half dollar or a superb 1799 dollar, you can make the case that your coin(s) seem cheap compared to the $10 million dollar 1794 which just sold. I’m thinking that all Gem/Superb early type in all metals just went up at least 10-20%, if not more.>>

    ‭4. Is this comment sensible? The Specimen Striking Carter 1794 dollar is a special case; it is not relevant to 1799 dollars or 1796 dimes. The fact that it is a gem quality coin is a secondary consideration. Please read my article on the physical characteristics of the coin.

    Incredible Carter 1794 silver dollar


    "In order to understand the scarce coins that you own or see, you must learn about coins that you cannot afford." -Me
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 35,743 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>‭Winter: <<Let’s say the coin was stalling at the 7 million dollar mark. If you were serious enough to be player at $7 million, you’d be crazy not to pay $8 million and immediately have the coin set the all-time record. But if you were at $8 million, why not pay $10 million? Yes, I know this sounds odd but hear me out.>>

    ‭1. It is not clear that the bidding would otherwise have reached $7 million. Please read my report.

    >>



    I see where Pogue was stopping at $5.5mil hammer in the first link. Do you have further info to go on and say the other bidders were out?
    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 24,412 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I think it's safe to say that if the only way out of our entitlement obligations is to inflate them away...

    It's not the only way, and it's probably not the most likely way. The promises can simply be "adjusted" to reflect reality. It's not that hard.

    But I do believe that the real (inflation adjusted) value of great coins will trend higher, because the world will continue to grow richer.
    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
  • tradedollarnuttradedollarnut Posts: 20,199 ✭✭✭✭✭
    1. It is not clear that the bidding would otherwise have reached $7 million. Please read my report.

    And it is not clear that it was not. There were multiple bidders in the room and your information is at odds with statements made directly to us after the sale. Besides, the price was just right:

    image
  • tradedollarnuttradedollarnut Posts: 20,199 ✭✭✭✭✭
    You paid for the 1794 S$1; its value is established. Knowing some of the players (or their agents) quite well, I have no doubt "shock and awe" was the right tactic. Used it myself.

    The Colonel sums it up nicely. image
  • cardinalcardinal Posts: 2,005 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>1. It is not clear that the bidding would otherwise have reached $7 million. Please read my report.

    And it is not clear that it was not. There were multiple bidders in the room and your information is at odds with statements made directly to us after the sale. Besides, the price was just right: >>



    Quite right! Interviewing just two bidders and a few observers would not be sufficient to discover the (otherwise) intended bidding levels of others in the room, who were shut out by Legend's shock and awe strategy. And while the auction may have been recorded, the video ended shortly after the final hammer fell. So, not included in that video record was the post-auction deal-making by losing bidders that offered immediate profits to winning bidders at advanced prices. (I am personally aware of many of those, even some involving the top ten highest priced lots, and some involving bidders that otherwise had already won 7-figures worth of lots.) Do those deals not factor into a coin's value?
  • bidaskbidask Posts: 14,022 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>1. It is not clear that the bidding would otherwise have reached $7 million. Please read my report.

    And it is not clear that it was not. There were multiple bidders in the room and your information is at odds with statements made directly to us after the sale. Besides, the price was just right: >>



    Quite right! Interviewing just two bidders and a few observers would not be sufficient to discover the (otherwise) intended bidding levels of others in the room, who were shut out by Legend's shock and awe strategy. And while the auction may have been recorded, the video ended shortly after the final hammer fell. So, not included in that video record was the post-auction deal-making by losing bidders that offered immediate profits to winning bidders at advanced prices. (I am personally aware of many of those, even some involving the top ten highest priced lots, and some involving bidders that otherwise had already won 7-figures worth of lots.) Do those deals not factor into a coin's value? >>

    Are you saying an offer was made to buy the 1794 $ from the winning bidder after the auction had closed?
    I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
    I give away money. I collect money.
    I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.




  • CoinosaurusCoinosaurus Posts: 9,644 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>1. It is not clear that the bidding would otherwise have reached $7 million. Please read my report.

    And it is not clear that it was not. There were multiple bidders in the room and your information is at odds with statements made directly to us after the sale. Besides, the price was just right: >>


    >>



    So I ask myself - if I was bidding on a multi-million dollar rarity, who would I want on the other side of the phone. Analyst or TDN?
  • EVillageProwlerEVillageProwler Posts: 5,856 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>1. It is not clear that the bidding would otherwise have reached $7 million. Please read my report.

    And it is not clear that it was not. There were multiple bidders in the room and your information is at odds with statements made directly to us after the sale. Besides, the price was just right: >>




    So I ask myself - if I was bidding on a multi-million dollar rarity, who would I want on the other side of the phone. Analyst or TDN? >>



    Easy answer to an easy question...

    I'd want the person who has more experience winning at this level rather than standing on the sidelines being an armchair QB.

    I have no patience for folks who are all blah blah blah, but with nothing to back up his blah blah blah. It's just noise to me.

    Those who make events happen have the much tougher job than those who get to talk about the event after it's already happened.

    It's like the military and their imbedded reporters. Both important. But, if I wanted to defeat my enemy, I'd get the military to do so. I certainly wouldn't want the reporters to act like soldiers.

    No offense to Analyst, but interviewing Brent does not a full story make. TDN and Legend had to make a strategic decision before the auction started, with on-the-fly tactical adjustments during. Analyst's interview came AFTER the auction ended. Yawn.

    EVP

    How does one get a hater to stop hating?

    I can be reached at evillageprowler@gmail.com

  • tradedollarnuttradedollarnut Posts: 20,199 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I have to ask - which is more likely:

    All bidders except one decided they could buy one of the greatest coins of our time at a million dollar plus loss to the consignor after three years of ownership in a red hot top end market in a red hot series (remember - I offered $2.75M for the MS64 1794 and was summarily dismissed)

    OR

    The underbidders wish to keep their cards close to the vest and not reveal their true bid level or strategy to the press
  • cardinalcardinal Posts: 2,005 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I have to ask - which is more likely:

    All bidders except one decided they could buy one of the greatest coins of our time at a million dollar plus loss to the consignor after three years of ownership in a red hot top end market in a red hot series (remember - I offered $2.75M for the MS64 1794 and was summarily dismissed)

    OR

    The underbidders wish to keep their cards close to the vest and not reveal their true bid level or strategy to the press >>



    image
  • tradedollarnuttradedollarnut Posts: 20,199 ✭✭✭✭✭
    it does not follow, logically, that the Childs 1804 dollar, which was valued in the $7 to $10 million range, would all the sudden be valued at $15 to $20 million “maybe even more” because this coin sells for $10 million. These are two very different kinds of coins.

    I do tend to agree with this statement although I do believe the value is absolutely now $10-12M.
  • cardinalcardinal Posts: 2,005 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>1. It is not clear that the bidding would otherwise have reached $7 million. Please read my report.

    And it is not clear that it was not. There were multiple bidders in the room and your information is at odds with statements made directly to us after the sale. Besides, the price was just right: >>



    Quite right! Interviewing just two bidders and a few observers would not be sufficient to discover the (otherwise) intended bidding levels of others in the room, who were shut out by Legend's shock and awe strategy. And while the auction may have been recorded, the video ended shortly after the final hammer fell. So, not included in that video record was the post-auction deal-making by losing bidders that offered immediate profits to winning bidders at advanced prices. (I am personally aware of many of those, even some involving the top ten highest priced lots, and some involving bidders that otherwise had already won 7-figures worth of lots.) Do those deals not factor into a coin's value? >>



    Are you saying an offer was made to buy the 1794 $ from the winning bidder after the auction had closed? >>



    I do not know if Legend was contacted directly after the auction closed with an offer on the 1794$, but I do know that two separate floor bidders that each bid over $1 million in the sale contacted other winning bidders to make offers -- even while still in the auction room, while the reporters were doing interviews.

    Now, about the 1794 Dollar, one of the phone bidders that I had spoken to prior to the sale (who had told me he was planning on bidding up to $8M or $8.5M hammer, and was even planning to jump the bid himself once the bids were within 2 or three increments of his limit) contacted me the weekend after the sale. He said he was waiting for the right opportunity to enter the bidding, but when Legend jumped the bid, they effectively cut him out. He contemplated bidding higher, but when he learned that a dealer (Legend) held the top bid, he figured they were in the business of reselling at a profit, so rather than bidding them up to a still higher price, he would just plan on buying it from them post-auction. Of course the coin is not for sale for the near future, but when it is, there will be a willing buyer to offer a profit on the coin.


  • << <i>

    I do not know if Legend was contacted directly after the auction closed with an offer on the 1794$, but I do know that two separate floor bidders that each bid over $1 million in the sale contacted other winning bidders to make offers -- even while still in the auction room, while the reporters were doing interviews.

    Now, about the 1794 Dollar, one of the phone bidders that I had spoken to prior to the sale (who had told me he was planning on bidding up to $8M or $8.5M hammer, and was even planning to jump the bid himself once the bids were within 2 or three increments of his limit) contacted me the weekend after the sale. He said he was waiting for the right opportunity to enter the bidding, but when Legend jumped the bid, they effectively cut him out. He contemplated bidding higher, but when he learned that a dealer (Legend) held the top bid, he figured they were in the business of reselling at a profit, so rather than bidding them up to a still higher price, he would just plan on buying it from them post-auction. Of course the coin is not for sale for the near future, but when it is, there will be a willing buyer to offer a profit on the coin. >>



    Interesting perspective

    Also by trade I am a contract negotiator for the Federal Government and everybody always assumes that the whole point of being a deal maker is to get the best price. It is more about executing ones priorities which can be many different things (timing, quantity, precedence) but it always comes back to closing the deal first and foremost. I see a deal that got closed in dramatic fashion that gained countless reciprocal benefits such as notoriety and crossover mainstream publicity for the object and the firm/owners. Combined with a happy seller and auction house all who are probable future business partners and I don't see one negative in the transaction.
  • DeepCoinDeepCoin Posts: 2,781 ✭✭✭
    I believe the bidding strategy was a masterful stroke that kept others out and actually allowed for a less expensive purchase of the coin. A bidding war by increments could easily have driven the hammer higher by a significant amount. The shock and awe methodology by one of the major deep pocket players in the market clearly sent a signal they were willing to go higher and effectively made others make a decision regarding the stratosphere much earlier than they had perhaps planned. Well done TDN and Laura.

    FYI, IMHO this is the most important dollar one could own. While the others are nice and have their own provenance, this is the ultimate Silver Dollar to me. That is another reason for believing the bid was a terrific strategy.
    Retired United States Mint guy, now working on an Everyman Type Set.
  • CoinJunkieCoinJunkie Posts: 8,772 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I have to ask - which is more likely:

    All bidders except one decided they could buy one of the greatest coins of our time at a million dollar plus loss to the consignor after three years of ownership in a red hot top end market in a red hot series (remember - I offered $2.75M for the MS64 1794 and was summarily dismissed)

    OR

    The underbidders wish to keep their cards close to the vest and not reveal their true bid level or strategy to the press >>


    Correct me if I'm wrong, but weren't the prices for the finest half dismes on the low end of the projected range?
    Also, considering that part of the winning bid was the stated desire to top $10M, can we really be sure that the
    realized price wasn't just slightly inflated?

    I'm not taking anything away from the coin or your bidding strategy, but it seems to me that we'll never know
    exactly how the auction would have played out had the nuclear bid not been tendered, the stated intentions
    of other parties notwithstanding. The bottom line is you won the coin at the price you wanted, so the result
    was an unqualified success. Congratulations.
  • AnalystAnalyst Posts: 1,438 ✭✭✭
    EastVillageProwler: <<No offense to Analyst, but interviewing BP does not a full story make. >>

    It is irresponsible to draw a conclusion about an article without even reading it. It is falsely suggested that I based a <<full story>> on an interview of BP.

    Although I devoted an entire article, before the auction, to this 1794 dollar, bidding on the 1794 was only a small part of the article that included a quoted statement from BP.

    EastVillageProwler: <<I have no patience for folks who are all blah blah blah, but with nothing to back up his blah blah blah. It's just noise to me.>>

    If you bothered to read my articles, you may find that there is not <just noise> and you would find that my statements generally are supported. It is not intelligent and is slanderous to put forth your statement above, especially without bothering to read the relevant articles.

    Someone who did read my articles would find that I did not draw a conclusion about all the bidding activities for this 1794 dollar. In this regard, I did more, though, than just interview BP. I investigated the matter. I am convinced that BP would not have re-entered the bidding. While there are rumors and stories in this forum, I am not aware of the slightest evidence of anyone preparing to bid more than $8 million, and I am very skeptical.

    It is true that Greg Rohan was talking to someone on his cell phone while Rohan was holding a bidder paddle in a position suggesting that he may have been poised to raise it. Without knowing the thoughts of the person at the other end of the conversation, it may be impossible to know if he would have asked Rohan to bid more than 5.5 hammer. We will never know exactly what would have happened if the bidding had transpired in a different manner. I did not claim that I knew what would have otherwise happened. The cited article is mostly about the 1792 half disme and copper coins dating 1793 and 1794, from the Cardinal Collection.

    Cardinal Collection Results, Part 1: 1792 to 1794

    The Top Ten Auction Records for Coins & Patterns

    Cardinal Collection Results, Part 2: Draped Bust Large Cents

    Incredible Carter 1794 silver dollar

    Video of Bidding for PCGS SP-66 1794 dollar
    "In order to understand the scarce coins that you own or see, you must learn about coins that you cannot afford." -Me
  • tradedollarnuttradedollarnut Posts: 20,199 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Someone who did read my articles would find that I did not draw a conclusion about all the bidding activities for this 1794 dollar. In this regard, I did more, though, than just interview BP. I investigated the matter. I am convinced that BP would not have re-entered the bidding. While there are rumors and stories in this forum, I am not aware of the slightest evidence of anyone preparing to bid more than $8 million, and I am very skeptical.

    You know, that kinda sounds like drawing a conclusion to me.

    Fact: there were other bidders in the room
    Fact: there were other bidders on the phone
    Fact: we decided before the auction we were going to bid what we did no matter what in an attempt to acquire the coin
    Fact: all the rest is speculation....
  • EVillageProwlerEVillageProwler Posts: 5,856 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Fact: some folks have "conclusions" waiting for an audience.

    Just saying...

    How does one get a hater to stop hating?

    I can be reached at evillageprowler@gmail.com

  • cardinalcardinal Posts: 2,005 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>EastVillageProwler: <<No offense to Analyst, but interviewing BP does not a full story make. >>

    It is irresponsible to draw a conclusion about an article without even reading it. It is falsely suggested that I based a <<full story>> on an interview of BP.

    Although I devoted an entire article, before the auction, to this 1794 dollar, bidding on the 1794 was only a small part of the article that included a quoted statement from BP.

    EastVillageProwler: <<I have no patience for folks who are all blah blah blah, but with nothing to back up his blah blah blah. It's just noise to me.>>

    If you bothered to read my articles, you may find that there is not <just noise> and you would find that my statements generally are supported. It is not intelligent and is slanderous to put forth your statement above, especially without bothering to read the relevant articles.

    Someone who did read my articles would find that I did not draw a conclusion about all the bidding activities for this 1794 dollar. In this regard, I did more, though, than just interview BP. I investigated the matter. I am convinced that BP would not have re-entered the bidding. While there are rumors and stories in this forum, I am not aware of the slightest evidence of anyone preparing to bid more than $8 million, and I am very skeptical.

    >>



    Okay, so you feel EVP's comments may be "slanderous," yet after reading my prior post (relevant excerpt below), with my direct public testimony on this topic, you respond by saying you are "not aware of the slightest evidence of anyone preparing to bid more than $8 million, and I am very skeptical." Are you implying that my post represents false testimony?

    Here is what I said earlier:

    Now, about the 1794 Dollar, one of the phone bidders that I had spoken to prior to the sale (who had told me he was planning on bidding up to $8M or $8.5M hammer, and was even planning to jump the bid himself once the bids were within 2 or three increments of his limit) contacted me the weekend after the sale. He said he was waiting for the right opportunity to enter the bidding, but when Legend jumped the bid, they effectively cut him out. He contemplated bidding higher, but when he learned that a dealer (Legend) held the top bid, he figured they were in the business of reselling at a profit, so rather than bidding them up to a still higher price, he would just plan on buying it from them post-auction. Of course the coin is not for sale for the near future, but when it is, there will be a willing buyer to offer a profit on the coin.
  • BroadstruckBroadstruck Posts: 30,497 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Analyst, CW should contact PCGS's advertising department to purchase a banner ad instead of continually spamming your site for readership here in all your posts.
    To Err Is Human.... To Collect Err's Is Just Too Much Darn Tootin Fun!
  • EVillageProwlerEVillageProwler Posts: 5,856 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The tactic of not bidding up a dealer in the hopes of achieving an after-auction win-win situation is quite common. I've tried it myself, with mixed results.

    I do not doubt Cardinal.

    EVP

    How does one get a hater to stop hating?

    I can be reached at evillageprowler@gmail.com

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