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Your opinion: Is AU58 - Everyman Collecting a "Bubble" or is it it's infancy only to grow
SAM5969
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Everyman sets have now been around and popular for some time now. Since then, many series and circulated grades have been pulled up in value. Although I can't speak for all series of coins, I am an avid collector of Barber Halves and Barber Quarters and I can safely say we have seen a sharp increase in demand and price for nice AU examples, particularly AU58 where the jump in price from AU55 to AU58 can be significant. Quite often they are trading at MS62/63 money, and often more. Several months back, we saw an 1897-S Half Dollar sell at auction for nearly $15k when it was a pop 1 coin. Since then a second example has been graded. Safe to say the next auction of an 1897-S AU58 will bring less than $15k? Agree? Disagree?
Laws of economics have shown many bubbles over time (dot com, real estate, etc.). As demand has risen, so have the prices. It also appears to me that many more coins that had not been certified even 2-3 years ago, are now being submitted. Even common date coins in F/VF grades are being certified. Naturally this adds to the supply and if demand remains level (or even drops), it is easy to see we could have a "bubble"
What are your non-biased thoughts, projections or opinions on this topic in general and/or for any particular series that comes to mind or that you may be personally familiar with. Are we in the early stages witnessing slow and steady growth in popularity? Are we approaching a peak? Will there be a peak? Is it all just part of the normal cyclical activities of this hobby?
Please post your thoughts or comments and feel free to articulate as much or as little as you like.
Thanks for taking the time to read and comment!
Laws of economics have shown many bubbles over time (dot com, real estate, etc.). As demand has risen, so have the prices. It also appears to me that many more coins that had not been certified even 2-3 years ago, are now being submitted. Even common date coins in F/VF grades are being certified. Naturally this adds to the supply and if demand remains level (or even drops), it is easy to see we could have a "bubble"
What are your non-biased thoughts, projections or opinions on this topic in general and/or for any particular series that comes to mind or that you may be personally familiar with. Are we in the early stages witnessing slow and steady growth in popularity? Are we approaching a peak? Will there be a peak? Is it all just part of the normal cyclical activities of this hobby?
Please post your thoughts or comments and feel free to articulate as much or as little as you like.
Thanks for taking the time to read and comment!
0
Comments
-TEJ
I think the high prices for some of the coins in the some of the series will prove self limiting. More collectors will content themselves with nice XF examples, or lowly AU55's, while a few big boys pursue the 58's in their effort to secure the 'best' circ sets. Once a few of the big boys complete the sets, or lose interest, etc. some of the crazy prices will likely subside.
One thing in favor of these types of coins, unlike many other coin fads over the years (50D nickels, 1960 small date cents, etc.), is that many of them are legitimately scarce coins. Some of the monster dates in the Barber series, and to a lesser extent Walking Lib halves, are downright rare in true AU58, and there will always be demand for them.
I often wondered about why that would be.
<< <i>The PCGS price guide omits the 58 grade.
I often wondered about why that would be. >>
Not in the registry set "What If" function. BTW some of the prices for Walkers in AU58 are about half of what I have been out bid at. Most of those you can just use the MS63 column to get close to what they go for.
Disclosure I had the number two Walker set until I retired it earlier this year to pursue another goal.
www.brunkauctions.com
<< <i>The PCGS price guide omits the 58 grade.
I often wondered about why that would be. >>
There is a price there. It just doesn't come up on the first page. You have to dig a little for it.
I personally believe everyman sets will always be in demand, especially as the better date classics get harder to find. As for the 58's, I agree with Walkerguy21D.
A market in which the value of the refractive layer of oxidation can make up the majority of the value of the coin.
and a market in which not all AU58s are equal in the first place, and the market-distorting effect of this everyman registry is in play and relatively new.
IMO, an equilibrium will become established. As others have mentioned, it doesn't make sense for an ordinary AU58 to be worth more than an ordinary MS61 or 62, unless it looks better, in which case it's really an AU 62 or 63 in value, isn't it?
PCGS should start a registry in which the highest value grade is for VF30, you'd have people searching their pocket change and submitting clad in order to stay competitive, as well as submitting a lot of mid-grade coins that are currently raw because they're not worth certifying
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>IMO, an equilibrium will become established. As others have mentioned, it doesn't make sense for an ordinary AU58 to be worth more than an ordinary MS61 or 62, unless it looks better, in which case it's really an AU 62 or 63 in value, isn't it? >>
I've been calling AU58's like the example below AU64's for years.
Not all AU58's are the same just like any other grade there's PQ's and POS's in like TPG graded holders.
I do see the trend continuing for the type of coins you really need to rotate under a light source with a loupe just to spot the rub.
<< <i>The PCGS price guide omits the 58 grade.
I often wondered about why that would be. >>
<< <i>There is a price there. It just doesn't come up on the first page. You have to dig a little for it. >>
+1
i'm looking at pcgs 58 prices now.
.
I have to say you all have good points and almost everything thus far discussed, has crossed my mind. I continue to evaluate the market and consider all facets and try to project the most logical path as I see it.
I do own many AU58 coins and have looked at many more. Nearly all of my current AU58 PCGS graded coins have outstanding eye appeal and are of wonderful quality. We have seen the reference to "AU64" coins, and read how some will trust PCGS AU58 plastic sight unseen without exception, etc. In fact, I have contradicted myself by publicizing that I would not fall victim to the impending bubble and would generally pursue them "cautiously". Of course, that is not an option if one really wants to acquire a high end example, especially a desirable scarce coin such as a 93-S or 96-S Half, both of which were recently acquired by the OP. Opportunities to acquire said coins in this state of preservation, especially coins that could very well have the greatest eye appeal for the entire population for that date/mint mark in AU58! All things being equal, do you buy? Do you wait? Do you pursue a nice quality in a lower grade? Of course the answer is an individual decision.
I will paraphrase one interesting angle regarding AU58 graded coins that I read from Greg Reynolds recently. Mr. Reynolds recommended newer collectors or novice collectors not buy AU58 graded coins. The reason being is that although many AU58 graded coins are truly MS63/64 with a touch of rub or circulation wear, there are coins that are truly mint state coins that have "problems" not large enough to render the coin not gradable that are net graded to AU58. While reading this I found it unbelievable this could be true. After all, why not use the MS60 or 61 grade. He answered my question shortly thereafter: Many series of coins, particularly 18th century and early 19th century where the price difference is significant between AU58 and MS60 (one example would be the 1884-S Morgan Dollar). Although most of us would agree, AU58 coins in general have far better eye appeal than virtually all MS60 & MS61 coins, the fact remains the mint state coins command a higher price tag. I would also say that I have viewed quite a few MS61 coins with amazing eye appeal. They left me wondering why the grader was so harsh. In most cases, the coin was a very scarce or even rare coin. While viewing some other Barber Quarter collections, I took note of several key coins graded at the low end of the scale; MS60-61 or 62 that looked incredible.
Most of my present AU58 coins have fabulous eye appeal, if not amazing eye appeal. A couple would lay claims for MS63. There are also a couple I feel are over graded by 3, 5 or 8 points. The common denominator in the entire thread seems to be .. What is common. Some of my common date AU58 graded coins include a 1912 Half Dollar, 1907 Barber Quarter, 1901 Half Dollar. The 1912 Half should not be graded AU58. I would say AU50 would be the maximum for this coin. This is the extreme example. When compared side by side with all the others, this coin has no full cartwheel luster, and the strike is average at best. There is also too much wear for the grade. The 1907 Quarter could be AU58, but I think AU53+ or 55 is the correct grade. The 1901 Half has nice luster but is not a wow coin by any stretch. On the other hand, the rarer coins which include the aforementioned 1893-S Half, 1896-S Half, 1898-O Quarter, 1915-S Quarter are all amazing coins with intense luster, crisp and deep strikes and terrific eye appeal. Coincidence or just stricter grading. Perhaps the sample size is too small. While I have compared other images from auction houses, other collections, etc., there is no comparison for coin in hand.
In conclusion I mostly agree that everyman collection popularity will in time subside. I also agree strongly that the very scarce or rare coins such as the 1919-D or 1916-S Walker will command the premium due to the scarcity and desirability of such coins. I also believe as long as these coins are strictly graded within a small window, their popularity will continue due to the usual eye appeal expected of such a grade. The downside would be their popularity may be peaking in general and as such, more dealers are testing the outer boundaries regarding their ask price . I agree that at some point (when the price approaches MS63 money), the market will in fact correct as suggested earlier.
If I were to conclude in one sentence:I believe if one locates a genuinely scarce to rare coin with 5 star eye appeal, those coins will maintain strong demand and hence strong prices.
1897-S AU58 was $14.950 - I rounded up sorry
1897 S AU58
Edit...at the time there were no 97-S's known in 58!
I've said for years that many AU 58's look much better than MS-63's and can be far scarcer. Many of
these nice AU's were pulled out of circulation by collectors who saw their qualities or are Gems that
have been mishandled at some point of their lives.
I wouldn't pay up for an AU-58 unless it really is a date that is more desirable with a little wear. It has
to be attractive and original. I suspect there are still a lot of bargains in this area though it's entirely
possible there have been collectors or speculators paying too much for others.
It didn't really register until we hung up as I was in Wow mode afterward.
<< <i>Incorrect Darrell
1897-S AU58 was $14.950 - I rounded up sorry
1897 S AU58 >>
Just fell out of my seat when I logged into HA to see this coin and noticed PCGS Price Guide is now $14,950.00 in AU58
<< <i>During a recent phone conversation with MFH he mentioned how little a MS64 09-O quarter fetched compared to a AU58...
It didn't really register until we hung up as I was in Wow mode afterward. >>
Like someone said earlier.......bubble.
Money continues to seek out areas that are underrated. It will continue to flow into those areas until there is nothing left to give. Then it's on to another area.
That's about the only way the rare coin market has been "working" the past 4 years.
What's next, used cars with 150,000 miles bringing more than the same year car with 40,000 miles because the higher mileage car is scarcer in that condition?
Us dinosaurs still believe a higher quality original MS coin should be worth the same or more than it's circulated brethren. An AU58 1872-s 25c is considerably rarer
than an AU58 1897-s half or 1909-0 AU58 25c. And even the the 72-s quarter likely won't run you $15K in AU58. The 72-s quarter is potentially the rarest San Francisco silver
coin minted following the 1870-s half dime, 1894-s dime and 1878-s half. Probably around 100-150 pieces known with an AU58 in the top 10-15 extant. A $15K circ 1897-s half
is certainly not "everyman" but rather..... "bubbleman." We entered the Twilight Zone a ways back. This anomaly has doomed a number of MS 61-63 Barber coins to be put into
service as pocket pieces or put into soft tumblers. Considering there's almost no downside, why not? When too many AU58's start showing up, the tide will turn the other way. The
coin docs probably already are cooking up ways of adding dirt, grime, and oxidation to a formerly BU coin now turned pocket piece. Does this phenomena exist in 18th and early 19th
century coinage? As I'm not aware of any seated coin where a an attractive MS coin would be worth less than a similarly attractive AU58 coin. Or is this hoopla because the standards
for AU58 Barbers are radically different from Bust and Seated coinage?
<< <i>
<< <i>Incorrect Darrell
1897-S AU58 was $14.950 - I rounded up sorry
1897 S AU58 >>
Just fell out of my seat when I logged into HA to see this coin and noticed PCGS Price Guide is now $14,950.00 in AU58
PCGS price guide of $14,950 based on one auction is stupid.....
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>Personally, I don't necessarily see the AU58 coins rising because of the Everyman Sets, but because of what how nice of a coin an AU58 coin can be. A properly graded AU58 could be a MS66+ (though rarely) that just has some wear on it. It could have gorgeous toning, clean fields, great luster, but the wear keeps it out of the MS category. Many people would agree that a lot of Au58s are more desirable than a 60, 61, 62, 63 and occasionally a 64. Because of this, 58s are beginning to be valued more than these grade levels. Is this wrong? Should a nice coin with just the slightest wear be worth less than an Uncirculated coin that is dull, baggy or had other detractions? I think not and I love this AU58 grade. >>
A properly graded AU58 could be a MS66+ (though rarely) that just has some wear on it. It could have gorgeous toning, clean fields, great luster, but the wear keeps it out of the MS category
NO WAY!
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
considerable luster break/thinning in the fields or copious amount of chatter giving the fields a slightly broken-up look.
Most AU58 coins will show patches of slight friction in the open fields. Very unusual to find coins with full field luster and minute high point wear. Usually those
were unc coins kept in albums, or in drawers, not from banging around in circulation. For bust and seated coins those types of coins are typically graded MS with a slight
deduction for the rub. But halves below MS65 are almost never found w/o rub. 20th century coins almost never get that consideration. AU58 coins will also be missing a lot
or all of the luster on the flat rims. If you have an "AU58" Barber half will full rim luster.....it's mint state. The only question is what MS grade to assign it. In the late
1970's and early 1980's I called every coin that didn't have full mint luster as AU58. And you can imagine I found very few coins to buy at my price meeting that standard....lol.
I would think most dealers would love to sell au58 coins. Buy them cheap and go for the 65 money.
NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!!
working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!
RIP "BEAR"
<< <i>For years i was against all au58 coins, I was programmed for ms65's. >>
I think many of us had been programed that way as if it wasn't a minimum Gem MS65 you just didn't touch it.
It took me well over a decade to even consider anything in a MS64 holder... Now look at me today!
<< <i>Personally, I don't necessarily see the AU58 coins rising because of the Everyman Sets, but because of what how nice of a coin an AU58 coin can be. A properly graded AU58 could be a MS66+ (though rarely) that just has some wear on it. It could have gorgeous toning, clean fields, great luster, but the wear keeps it out of the MS category. Many people would agree that a lot of Au58s are more desirable than a 60, 61, 62, 63 and occasionally a 64. Because of this, 58s are beginning to be valued more than these grade levels. Is this wrong? Should a nice coin with just the slightest wear be worth less than an Uncirculated coin that is dull, baggy or had other detractions? I think not and I love this AU58 grade. >>
Well said.
"Inspiration exists, but it has to find you working" Pablo Picasso
And if the PCGS price guide in PCGS 58 is correct at $14,950.........what is this coin worth?
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>
<< <i>For years i was against all au58 coins, I was programmed for ms65's. >>
I think many of us had been programed that way as if it wasn't a minimum Gem MS65 you just didn't touch it.
It took me well over a decade to even consider anything in a MS64 holder... Now look at me today!
Yes......you need to change you title to Mr. AU64
.
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.
Gallery Mint Museum, Ron Landis& Joe Rust, The beginnings of the Golden Dollar
.
More CoinsAreFun Pictorials NGC FOR SALE
<< <i>I don't think you will find a AU 58 with this kind of luster.
And if the PCGS price guide in PCGS 58 is correct at $14,950.........what is this coin worth?
bidask, Well that's an easy question to answer... $450.00 less based on PCGS price guide values.
<< <i>
<< <i>I don't think you will find a AU 58 with this kind of luster.
And if the PCGS price guide in PCGS 58 is correct at $14,950.........what is this coin worth?
bidask, Well that's an easy question to answer... $450.00 less based on PCGS price guide values.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Lance.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I don't think you will find a AU 58 with this kind of luster.
And if the PCGS price guide in PCGS 58 is correct at $14,950.........what is this coin worth?
bidask, Well that's an easy question to answer... $450.00 less based on PCGS price guide values.
Now since both are almost equally valued which is a wiser long term hold
Do you think the MS66 has a chance of being reevaluated guide wise in the near future yielding a $10K +/- loss
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I don't think you will find a AU 58 with this kind of luster.
And if the PCGS price guide in PCGS 58 is correct at $14,950.........what is this coin worth?
bidask, Well that's an easy question to answer... $450.00 less based on PCGS price guide values.
Now since both are almost equally valued which is a wiser long term hold
Do you think the MS66 has a chance of being reevaluated guide wise in the near future yielding a $10K +/- loss
But you have to consider which is more likely of having its population increase in the future, and, of course, the obvious answer is the circulated grade counterpart.
I would think the 66 is far better of a coin to hold than any 58, no matter the quality of the latter.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I don't think you will find a AU 58 with this kind of luster.
And if the PCGS price guide in PCGS 58 is correct at $14,950.........what is this coin worth?
bidask, Well that's an easy question to answer... $450.00 less based on PCGS price guide values.
Now since both are almost equally valued which is a wiser long term hold
Do you think the MS66 has a chance of being reevaluated guide wise in the near future yielding a $10K +/- loss
But you have to consider which is more likely of having its population increase in the future, and, of course, the obvious answer is the circulated grade counterpart.
I would think the 66 is far better of a coin to hold than any 58, no matter the quality of the latter. >>
+1
TomB wrote;
What I believe one will find, if it has not happened already, is that there will be some type of split in the populations and prices of AU58 coins. Those coins that are what I consider "true" AU58 pieces are coins that have near perfect surfaces with a slight trace of wear on the highpoints; these are the glamorized AU64 or "MS64 with a touch of wear" coins and they should command a premium to other AU coinage. The other pool of AU58 graded coins consist of, in my opinion, pieces with surface impairments and some wear, which would generally have me call them AU55 even though they are graded AU58. This latter pool of AU58 coins is not as nice as the first and should not reach the same heights in pricing.
Indeed.
Like any grade there are A, B and C coins if you will. I am only talking about correctly graded, not misgrades.
Top flight 58's (A coins) that aren't in plastic will still be head scratchers to many. They LOOK like 63+ coins, unless you really study, and even then, it is sometimes up for debate. Circulated or cabinet/roll/storage friction? I would say only a smaller percentage (probably 10 to 15% at most) of graded AU58's fit this bill. Of course there are a LOT of MS62 and 63 coins that do to. These are probably the only coins where they MIGHT be more valuable than a solid 62/3 (IMO).
Middle coins (B coins) aren't Unc to the trained eye, although some (if not many, depending on the eye) will appear that way at first glance. These are not bad coins at all, and since they make up the majority of the AU58 population, are what regular 58's are. As a group, they are the best of the circulated grade, so to speak, and sometimes can be worth more than an Unc, but not often and certainly not always (IMO). Historically (last 20 years) when attractive and solid, these coins should get close to "60 money" if you want to own them.
The C coins are glorified 55's. No if's and's or but's. Send 'em in again, and a 58 is no garuntee. Something small bumped them up one level, that day.
Not that I ever want to see it happen, but the very top 55's and all 58's could be probably be lumped together and then 98% of them split over maybe levels.
Actually, now that I think of it, maybe over time, with enough resubmissions, they are becoming so. AU55+, AU58, AU58+, MS62 and MS63.
One last thought. PCGS + AU58 seems to demand MS60+ type pricing in many cases. Add in a Football, and it's almost a lock. Some of this is undoubtedly (IMO) driven by "Everyman" registries, where the top spot is a 58 (or 58+ I guess), and in that world, there is nothing finer. Outside of that world of course, there are a lot of finer coins. Anyway, historically, some of these top prices for AU58's just don't make sense.
Either it's a bubble, or solid and attractive MS62 and 63 coins (not glorified, bumped up 58's) might be the new value play.
“We are only their care-takers,” he posed, “if we take good care of them, then centuries from now they may still be here … ”
Todd - BHNC #242
A few years back, when our good friend, Liz Coggan, first suggested an "Everyman" collection to PCGS,
I had already finished all my Barber sets and was fine tuning them. I remember my friend, Craig Petersen,
entering his collection first into that Registry. He had just completed his collection of Barber Halves and had
"Gone to the mat" to acquire some of these XF 45's. ( Not all Registry owners are fixated on 58's.)
The first coin that blew past all reliable pricing guides was the 1901-S Half in PCGS 58. I believe it is still a
POP One . My memory is fading, but I was absolutely astonished at the price realized. I had a mediocre AU 55
at the time ( I can say it was mediocre because I never liked it and treated it as a hole filler )... and because of
the Everyman's hype for 58's, I elected to go with a 1901-S in MS 63... That started me getting better graded
MS coins for all the series. My collection ended up consisting of 35% MS coins. The Everyman Collection did not
affect my collecting standards, just helped define them. I wasn't going to fall prey to over inflated 58 prices. I did
buy some coins at outrageous prices (at the time) for AU 58's but then again, they were in line with 55 pricing.
The only coin I can say I chased and paid really stupid money for was an 1896-S Half in PCGS 58. This coin was
out of a David Lawrence sale in September, 2007. Having sold the coin last year in Heritage's Summer pre- ANA
Auction, I realized a 33% loss on that coin. The coin has again resold to another collector ( in this case the OP )
and knowing what he paid, he still got a bargain, in my eyes.
I remember buying the sole AU 55 ( no AU graded higher ) 1904-S Half Dollar. Once the collecting
fraternity found out what it sold for ( it was a private sale ) the population slowly increased fo the dozen
or so there are today in AU 55. A year after I had bought the aforementioned 55, I bought the POP One
1904-S Half in AU 58.... Again, coins came out of thin air ( in a manner of speaking ) and now there are more
than a half dozen ( this is all off the top of my head ... The POP is probably closer to 9 in 58 ) .
My 1904-S in 58 sold for $15k plus the commission - or - $17,250. The other key dates to follow -
such as the coin Darrell referenced, the 1897-O also brought similar figures, as did the 1897-S
( that coin being a POP One at the time - and something on every Barber collectors radar - still
has not brought out too many more ... Just the one other mentioned before. ) I fully expected the
1897-S AU 58 ( POP one at the time ) to break the $20k barrier ( if you included the juice ). I was
surprised it didn't.
Yes, I see a bubble on the rarity issues - but I also see only a slight downward correction.
The coin market of 1989-1990 was the worst price correction market I can remember and
I was was not actively collecting back then. There was another corrective market in 2009-10
and the market was not hit nearly as hard as the 89-90 Market. We are seeing a slight resurgence
and I would venture to guess the coming year should be a great year for our hobby.
Should we abandon the Everyman sets because of the AU 58 price debacle ? Of course not.
Prices seek their own level. If a collector want a coin badly enough, no price guide in the
world is going to deter him ( it sure hasn't hindered myself and many others here, either ).
No one has "a crystal ball" into the numismatic future - so - collect what you like but always
be mindful of what the professionals have always told us, do not collect coins expecting to
make money. It's an unstable environment and you could be hurt financially if you arn't careful.
Ok... I've rattled on long enough...
PS: The 1909-O Quarters that B/S was referencing where my two coins... MS 64
and an AU 55 with a Gold CAC ... The 55 did command a higher amount. Which was
the reason I bought the 64 in the first place. I had chased the 55 for 18 years...
... Now, there is only one 1909-O Quarter in AU 58 ( last time I checked ) and although when last
offered - I was the underbidder at the time - I really wonder what this coin would bring now if offered.
~~~~~~~~~~~~
Coin collecting is not a hobby, it's an obsession !
New Barber Purchases
<< <i>I like AU58's. I agree that grade alone doesn't make the coin. But I'd prefer the right 58 over a 62/63.
Lance.
>>
it's hard to argue against your point when you present a coin like that!
If and when I win the lottery, then I can think about "upgrading" to AU58's.........
I look for the concept to remain and maybe the 58s will be a bubble, but the concept of collecting coins that have circulated will not go away IMHO.
<< <i>A few years back, when our good friend, Liz Coggan, first suggested an "Everyman" collection to PCGS,
I had already finished all my Barber sets and was fine tuning them. I remember my friend, Craig Petersen,
entering his collection first into that Registry. He had just completed his collection of Barber Halves and had
"Gone to the mat" to acquire some of these XF 45's. ( Not all Registry owners are fixated on 58's.)
The first coin that blew past all reliable pricing guides was the 1901-S Half in PCGS 58. I believe it is still a
POP One . My memory is fading, but I was absolutely astonished at the price realized. I had a mediocre AU 55
at the time ( I can say it was mediocre because I never liked it and treated it as a hole filler )... and because of
the Everyman's hype for 58's, I elected to go with a 1901-S in MS 63... That started me getting better graded
MS coins for all the series. My collection ended up consisting of 35% MS coins. The Everyman Collection did not
affect my collecting standards, just helped define them. I wasn't going to fall prey to over inflated 58 prices. I did
buy some coins at outrageous prices (at the time) for AU 58's but then again, they were in line with 55 pricing.
The only coin I can say I chased and paid really stupid money for was an 1896-S Half in PCGS 58. This coin was
out of a David Lawrence sale in September, 2007. Having sold the coin last year in Heritage's Summer pre- ANA
Auction, I realized a 33% loss on that coin. The coin has again resold to another collector ( in this case the OP )
and knowing what he paid, he still got a bargain, in my eyes.
I remember buying the sole AU 55 ( no AU graded higher ) 1904-S Half Dollar. Once the collecting
fraternity found out what it sold for ( it was a private sale ) the population slowly increased fo the dozen
or so there are today in AU 55. A year after I had bought the aforementioned 55, I bought the POP One
1904-S Half in AU 58.... Again, coins came out of thin air ( in a manner of speaking ) and now there are more
than a half dozen ( this is all off the top of my head ... The POP is probably closer to 9 in 58 ) .
My 1904-S in 58 sold for $15k plus the commission - or - $17,250. The other key dates to follow -
such as the coin Darrell referenced, the 1897-O also brought similar figures, as did the 1897-S
( that coin being a POP One at the time - and something on every Barber collectors radar - still
has not brought out too many more ... Just the one other mentioned before. ) I fully expected the
1897-S AU 58 ( POP one at the time ) to break the $20k barrier ( if you included the juice ). I was
surprised it didn't.
Yes, I see a bubble on the rarity issues - but I also see only a slight downward correction.
The coin market of 1989-1990 was the worst price correction market I can remember and
I was was not actively collecting back then. There was another corrective market in 2009-10
and the market was not hit nearly as hard as the 89-90 Market. We are seeing a slight resurgence
and I would venture to guess the coming year should be a great year for our hobby.
Should we abandon the Everyman sets because of the AU 58 price debacle ? Of course not.
Prices seek their own level. If a collector want a coin badly enough, no price guide in the
world is going to deter him ( it sure hasn't hindered myself and many others here, either ).
No one has "a crystal ball" into the numismatic future - so - collect what you like but always
be mindful of what the professionals have always told us, do not collect coins expecting to
make money. It's an unstable environment and you could be hurt financially if you arn't careful.
Ok... I've rattled on long enough...
PS: The 1909-O Quarters that B/S was referencing where my two coins... MS 64
and an AU 55 with a Gold CAC ... The 55 did command a higher amount. Which was
the reason I bought the 64 in the first place. I had chased the 55 for 18 years...
... Now, there is only one 1909-O Quarter in AU 58 ( last time I checked ) and although when last
offered - I was the underbidder at the time - I really wonder what this coin would bring now if offered.
Look at the coin first, people.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."