All I can say is this happened to the Chinese with their modern gold, silver, platinum coins minted around 1990 to 1996. Lot's of low mintage coins and they sold for close to spot for many years, and now everybody wants to own what little supply there is, so prices have risen substantially.
I will never again decry the phenomenon of the low mintage modern issue, as I have benefited from these over and over again in the recent past, but I have increasing difficulty getting behind them. It might be part of the "baseballcardization" of coins that I witnessed in cards in the mid to late 1980's. Every time I turned around, there was an opportunity to buy a special, limited edition issue that was guaranteed to be a winner, and, in the end, the only thing that was limited was my ability to afford them (I was in med school at the time).
Halfstrike; I can appreciate your Chinese modern coin analogy. Of course, with the Chinese, you have a quick growing middle class getting their first taste of coin collecting; not to mention a very affluent upper class (not to mention a billion+ population). Great recipe for those coins to move up that you mentioned.
My week in Macau, China this Summer literally blew me away. Between the gaming tables (lowest bet around $25/chip US) with (mostly) Chinese upward of "five deep" even on the weekdays, casino room rates at $400 or $500 a night to start and sold out many weeknights and Michelin 1, 2 and 3 star restaurants everywhere you turn and difficult to even get a reservation at times at places where the average check per person is probably $200 - $250+ ..... well let's just leave at it was a real eye-opener.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
Jackie at 1600 a very good price. I still have not seen evidence that dispersion of Jackies was not MUCH (i.e. a lot) better than later issues, even if they be of lower mintage. Then there is the "crossover " demand from baseball, African-American collectors, etc. I know I bought a single one for my collection the year of issue and that it is in OGP even now which might be a perfect example...
How many "First Hags" collectors are there really and is there great dispersion? Doubt it.
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
<< <i>Jackie at 1600 a very good price. I still have not seen evidence that dispersion of Jackies was not MUCH (i.e. a lot) better than later issues, even if they be of lower mintage. Then there is the "crossover " demand from baseball, African-American collectors, etc. I know I bought a single one for my collection the year of issue and that it is in OGP even now which might be a perfect example...
How many "First Hags" collectors are there really and is there great dispersion? Doubt it. >>
Well stated.
I'd be interested to know how many are thinking of selling their Jackies. I have one MS70. I'm very tempted to sell it now. Hard to know what to do.
I just ordered 4 SSB Uncs. I just had to speculate on this one. We'll see what happens.....
Caroline Harrison MS coins (Debut December 6, 2012) will have a lower mintage than that of SSB MS >>
Don't doubt that at all. But will she beat the brick lowest spouse? >>
I think the Mint is looking at diminishing orders on these and may only run about the same as the Lucy and see what happens. Being at the end of the year they may let it sell out without going back for more. At some point if the coins sell out too early they may start increasing the first batch production to extend the offer time closer to a year again. At least that is how I would do it if I was there. Who knows though because the Mint can be pretty unpredictable.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
One question about the SSB unc. I noticed the backorder date is floating on a daily basis. Does this give any insight as to whether they are producing more or waiting for sellout?
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
Backorder date has been bumped to 11/29. Original date was 11/26. Backorder date is advancing one day at a time.
As to whether this indicates a sellout, previous experience is mixed. If I remember correctly, many of the low-mintage platinum and gold issues of recent years also displayed floating backorder dates, and most orders posted after the backorder notice appeared were ultimately canceled. However, additional mintage occurred with a few coins (such as the 2010 uncirculated Buchanan's Liberty gold) to fill the outstanding orders.
If anyone have noticed, it is actually the second time SSB go red. IIRC, the first one was a couple months ago. I do believe this time it will go dark, but who knows!
Halfstrike or 7over8 might also be able to fill in with some relevant information.
Didn't the sellout of the 2011 ASE Anniversary Sets result in a floating date for quite awhile, and then many of those orders did get filled? I've never been quite sure what that floating date meant.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>Holy Cow 488 sold last week Someone will starts to cancel their orders >>
That doesn't mean there will be 488 more coins. Earlier this year, the unc. Lucretia Garfield reported "sales" of 525 coins in the final week, but many of these orders were canceled, and the mintage is certainly well below the latest sales figures of 2,498.
The same will happen with the unc. SSB unless the Mint decides to strike more of them, which could happen but is not guaranteed.
<< <i>Holy Cow 488 sold last week Someone will starts to cancel their orders >>
That doesn't mean there will be 488 more coins. Earlier this year, the unc. Lucretia Garfield reported "sales" of 525 coins in the final week, but many of these orders were canceled, and the mintage is certainly well below the latest sales figures of 2,498.
The same will happen with the unc. SSB unless the Mint decides to strike more of them, which could happen but is not guaranteed. >>
I am thinking that since this is a fund raiser they would not want the benefiting organization to get angry over orders not filled so they will mint more to fill the orders. This especially since the sales have not been that good anyway. Just my opinion so if you cancel and it goes dark don't say cross words to me.
ps I just looked at the math and at $35 per gold coin they made about $175k on the uncs alone so maybe they would not be upset if a few more were not sold.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
Everything about the appeal (except the mintage numbers) of the $5 Jackie Robinsons applies to the $5 proofs that were sold at the same time and currently sell for a few dollars over melt.
The backorder status of the SSB Unc $5 and floating ship date two weeks out indicate that only a small quantity remains in stock.
Going "red" at around 4700 sold would seem to indicate a 5000 production run - and I wouldnt be surprised if "orders" exceeded available coins - this has happened MANY times before.......we had this happen on the unc plats in 2008, where we saw orders explode by 900 coins on a presumed 3000 production run, only to be cancelled and adjusted backwards later by the mint.
Where this one ends - who knows, I've been watching and bought 2 a few days back. Kind of like a lottery ticket, where the odds are a little better in your favor.
The mint could also hold these on backorder into next month and at the last minute add up the remaining orders and do a final run of coins to fill orders.
BTW the coin right now is at 5126 so they already have over 5000 orders if that is all they made, and should have it up as sold out right now. The Garfield coin had a last week of about 500 coins too and it first went sold out, then we waited forever until they finally shipped the remaining coins.
"ps I just looked at the math and at $35 per gold coin they made about $175k on the uncs alone so maybe they would not be upset if a few more were not sold."
The charity idea is great ... they should have thought about that more when they set (what?) a 100,000 (silly) limit on the coins when the limit should have been set (IMHO) at around a quarter of that amount! That might have sold coins!
Just my 2 cents, as usual
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
<< <i>"ps I just looked at the math and at $35 per gold coin they made about $175k on the uncs alone so maybe they would not be upset if a few more were not sold."
The charity idea is great ... they should have thought about that more when they set (what?) a 100,000 (silly) limit on the coins when the limit should have been set (IMHO) at around a quarter of that amount! That might have sold coins!
Just my 2 cents, as usual
Wondercoin >>
I agree.
Successful coin BST transactions with Gerard and segoja.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
Who cares what the mintage is? Fugly piece of modern crap, imho.
Let's consider the pluses and minuses. On the plus side, a mintage lower than Jackie R. will get you a reasonable shot at double your money in a year or less, roughly speaking.
Another plus, the design ain't half bad, although admittedly the proof is nicer looking, imo. So, we disagree on the question of esthetics. Fair enough.
On the minus side, the Mint charged a premium over the price of spot gold of something around 23.5%. Compared to what I would consider a 1/4 oz. of common bullion, you are maybe paying twice the amount of premium for the 1/4 oz. that you might otherwise pay.
If the mintage for this Star Spangled Banner Unc doesn't exceed the magic number of 5,174 it has the potential to reach $1,250 literally within months without breaking a sweat. That could finance a nice classic coin someday.
Carry on.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Just too long for the red to be showing. My guess with over a month left they have plenty of time to mint say 500 more, but they are risking a lot of returns fast.
<< <i>Give me $500 and I can double your money in a month of hardcore roll searching >>
I'll send you $500 via a PayPal gift. Then in 30 days you need to return $1000 via a PayPal gift. Start another thread to keep us informed of your progress. Anything over the $1000 is your pay for roll searching. What do you say?
Still a poor investment, imho. People collect coins because of a couple reasons... There's a meaning behind them, or they are attractive. Now, to each their own, but modern sets like the first ladies... do you think they provide good ROI? Low mintages, yes, but that's because nobody wants the coins.
Give me $500 and I can double your money in a month of hardcore roll searching. Give me $10k and I can double it in a year. Way better things you could use that money on than an ugly modern commemorative. >>
How do you think any coin gets a low mintage. I would say nearly all of them are because the demand was low at the time of issue. Some stay in low demand forever and some change over time. Now roll searching can be fun but it is tedious. I think you were right when you said each to his own.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
Plenty of moderns have done well lately. The "high" mintage UHR is an example. I bought 180 Fugly Army clad Unc coins for $20 a peice and sold them for $60 each to a dealer on the East coast, straight check, no ebay fees.
"I'll split the atom! I am the fifth dimension! I am the eighth wonder of the world!" -Gef the talking mongoose.
100% in a year on any coin is a great investment, especially if it is over $500. Anyway now we know why last years $5 gold uncs have not gone up in price, demand has dropped to about 5k instead of 8k on sales. What are the chances demand drops much under 5k going forward (Generals, etc.)? Not likely unless the mint doesn't strike enough coins, that is what we are all wondering.
What I find interesting is that FTB is ignoring the obvious. All of the above-mentioned issues are recent, and all of them have been very impressive in terms of market gains.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
What I find interesting is that FTB is ignoring the obvious. All of the above-mentioned issues are recent, and all of them have been very impressive in terms of market gains. >>
You can't convert a classic (Dinosaur) coin collector into admitting that there is value in moderns and some of the designs are indeed artistically pleasing. I used to be one (classic coin collector with a Dinosaurian mentality) until I "saw the light" $$$.
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
<< <i>I'll send you $500 via a PayPal gift. Then in 30 days you need to return $1000 via a PayPal gift. Start another thread to keep us informed of your progress. Anything over the $1000 is your pay for roll searching. What do you say? >>
No thanks, my bankroll is at about $6500 right now, so I have plenty. However, another $4k would be great after my switch to night shift. Won't double your money in a month, though, since I'm doing all the work and over half the capital is mine... I would offer 15% annualized on it, though. Way more than you'll get out of gold, silver, having it sit in your bank account, etc.
<< <i>Plenty of moderns have done well lately. The "high" mintage UHR is an example. I bought 180 Fugly Army clad Unc coins for $20 a peice and sold them for $60 each to a dealer on the East coast, straight check, no ebay fees. >>
Apples and oranges my friend, apples and oranges. A gold (AKA $$$), bullion-based issue versus a collectable non-bullion ($$) based issue... >>
FTB,
While you may hate everything about Moderns, as jmski points out your're just ignoring the obvious.
The money which has been made by many on this thread is really staggering. That's just the fact. I would add 2008 w/rev of 07 ASE to the list. There are others.
As to apples to apples, it's $ to $. Those who have been paying attention to the moderns over the past 6+ years have been able to make some serious money. I've seen nothing in the classics which has even come close in the same time frame.
There are many not on the list, such as the Julia MS70FS and the first 5 pucks which made for incredible flips.
You would do far better to pay attention to some of the moderns threads and make some real $ which you could put into classics instead of just bashing them and making comments which are simply contrary to the facts.
Comments
This is really a great time for the public to want to go out and purchase $5 gold commems with generals on them. LOL. Aren't they coming soon?
Wondercoin
30-40-50??
It says a great deal about changes in numismatics............sadly population of real collectors of modern issues is getting lower every year.
<< <i>Raufus ... PS ... Speaking of lower mintages possibly coming all across modern coins in 2013 / 2014, etc ...
This is really a great time for the public to want to go out and purchase $5 gold commems with generals on them. LOL. Aren't they coming soon?
Wondercoin >>
Still laughing!! The timing could not be better for that series.
They could borrow loosely from the Spouse series and have a Mistress series for the General coins.
Seriously. would they sell many less than Ms. Garfield or Hayes? LOL
Wondercoin
My week in Macau, China this Summer literally blew me away. Between the gaming tables (lowest bet around $25/chip US) with (mostly) Chinese upward of "five deep" even on the weekdays, casino room rates at $400 or $500 a night to start and sold out many weeknights and Michelin 1, 2 and 3 star restaurants everywhere you turn and difficult to even get a reservation at times at places where the average check per person is probably $200 - $250+ ..... well let's just leave at it was a real eye-opener.
Wondercoin
How many "First Hags" collectors are there really and is there great dispersion? Doubt it.
Well, just Love coins, period.
<< <i>Jackie at 1600 a very good price. I still have not seen evidence that dispersion of Jackies was not MUCH (i.e. a lot) better than later issues, even if they be of lower mintage. Then there is the "crossover " demand from baseball, African-American collectors, etc. I know I bought a single one for my collection the year of issue and that it is in OGP even now which might be a perfect example...
How many "First Hags" collectors are there really and is there great dispersion? Doubt it. >>
Well stated.
I'd be interested to know how many are thinking of selling their Jackies. I have one MS70. I'm very tempted to sell it now. Hard to know what to do.
I just ordered 4 SSB Uncs. I just had to speculate on this one. We'll see what happens.....
Caroline Harrison MS coins (Debut December 6, 2012) will have a lower mintage than that of SSB MS
<< <i>An educated guess
Caroline Harrison MS coins (Debut December 6, 2012) will have a lower mintage than that of SSB MS
Don't doubt that at all. But will she beat the brick lowest spouse?
<< <i>
<< <i>An educated guess
Caroline Harrison MS coins (Debut December 6, 2012) will have a lower mintage than that of SSB MS
Don't doubt that at all. But will she beat the brick lowest spouse? >>
I think the Mint is looking at diminishing orders on these and may only run about the same as the Lucy and see what happens. Being at the end of the year they may let it sell out without going back for more. At some point if the coins sell out too early they may start increasing the first batch production to extend the offer time closer to a year again. At least that is how I would do it if I was there. Who knows though because the Mint can be pretty unpredictable.
As to whether this indicates a sellout, previous experience is mixed. If I remember correctly, many of the low-mintage platinum and gold issues of recent years also displayed floating backorder dates, and most orders posted after the backorder notice appeared were ultimately canceled. However, additional mintage occurred with a few coins (such as the 2010 uncirculated Buchanan's Liberty gold) to fill the outstanding orders.
IIRC, the first one was a couple months ago.
I do believe this time it will go dark, but who knows!
Didn't the sellout of the 2011 ASE Anniversary Sets result in a floating date for quite awhile, and then many of those orders did get filled? I've never been quite sure what that floating date meant.
I knew it would happen.
488 sold last week
Someone will starts to cancel their orders
<< <i>Holy Cow
488 sold last week
Someone will starts to cancel their orders
That doesn't mean there will be 488 more coins. Earlier this year, the unc. Lucretia Garfield reported "sales" of 525 coins in the final week, but many of these orders were canceled, and the mintage is certainly well below the latest sales figures of 2,498.
The same will happen with the unc. SSB unless the Mint decides to strike more of them, which could happen but is not guaranteed.
<< <i>
<< <i>Holy Cow
488 sold last week
Someone will starts to cancel their orders
That doesn't mean there will be 488 more coins. Earlier this year, the unc. Lucretia Garfield reported "sales" of 525 coins in the final week, but many of these orders were canceled, and the mintage is certainly well below the latest sales figures of 2,498.
The same will happen with the unc. SSB unless the Mint decides to strike more of them, which could happen but is not guaranteed. >>
I am thinking that since this is a fund raiser they would not want the benefiting organization to get angry over orders not filled so they will mint more to fill the orders. This especially since the sales have not been that good anyway. Just my opinion so if you cancel and it goes dark don't say cross words to me.
ps I just looked at the math and at $35 per gold coin they made about $175k on the uncs alone so maybe they would not be upset if a few more were not sold.
Box of 20
for a few dollars over melt.
Going "red" at around 4700 sold would seem to indicate a 5000 production run - and I wouldnt be surprised if "orders" exceeded available coins - this has happened MANY times before.......we had this happen on the unc plats in 2008, where we saw orders explode by 900 coins on a presumed 3000 production run, only to be cancelled and adjusted backwards later by the mint.
Where this one ends - who knows, I've been watching and bought 2 a few days back. Kind of like a lottery ticket, where the odds are a little better in your favor.
BTW the coin right now is at 5126 so they already have over 5000 orders if that is all they made, and should have it up as sold out right now. The Garfield coin had a last week of about 500 coins too and it first went sold out, then we waited forever until they finally shipped the remaining coins.
The charity idea is great ... they should have thought about that more when they set (what?) a 100,000 (silly) limit on the coins when the limit should have been set (IMHO) at around a quarter of that amount! That might have sold coins!
Just my 2 cents, as usual
Wondercoin
<< <i>"ps I just looked at the math and at $35 per gold coin they made about $175k on the uncs alone so maybe they would not be upset if a few more were not sold."
The charity idea is great ... they should have thought about that more when they set (what?) a 100,000 (silly) limit on the coins when the limit should have been set (IMHO) at around a quarter of that amount! That might have sold coins!
Just my 2 cents, as usual
Wondercoin >>
I agree.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
I knew it would happen.
Let's consider the pluses and minuses. On the plus side, a mintage lower than Jackie R. will get you a reasonable shot at double your money in a year or less, roughly speaking.
Another plus, the design ain't half bad, although admittedly the proof is nicer looking, imo. So, we disagree on the question of esthetics. Fair enough.
On the minus side, the Mint charged a premium over the price of spot gold of something around 23.5%. Compared to what I would consider a 1/4 oz. of common bullion, you are maybe paying twice the amount of premium for the 1/4 oz. that you might otherwise pay.
If the mintage for this Star Spangled Banner Unc doesn't exceed the magic number of 5,174 it has the potential to reach $1,250 literally within months without breaking a sweat. That could finance a nice classic coin someday.
Carry on.
I knew it would happen.
Box of 20
<< <i>Give me $500 and I can double your money in a month of hardcore roll searching >>
I'll send you $500 via a PayPal gift. Then in 30 days you need to return $1000 via a PayPal gift. Start another thread to keep us informed of your progress. Anything over the $1000 is your pay for roll searching. What do you say?
Give me $500 and I can double your money in a month of hardcore roll searching. Give me $10k and I can double it in a year. Way better things you could use that money on than an ugly modern commemorative. >>
How do you think any coin gets a low mintage. I would say nearly all of them are because the demand was low at the time of issue. Some stay in low demand forever and some change over time. Now roll searching can be fun but it is tedious. I think you were right when you said each to his own.
Yep. Which is why I'm glad I bought some.
I knew it would happen.
Lets make a list:
Silver - 2006, 2011 ASE Anniversary Sets, 2012 ASE San Francisco Set
Gold - 2006W, 2007W, 2008W, 2011W, 2012W Burnished AGES; 2008W Proof Gold Buffs; 2009 UHR Gold Double Eagle; 2008W, 2009W Gold Liberty Spouses; 2010W, 2011W, 2012W Gold Spouses; 2006 AGE Anniversary Set
Platinum - 2004W, 2008W, 2009W, 2010W, 2011W, 2012W Proof Platinum Eagles
What I find interesting is that FTB is ignoring the obvious. All of the above-mentioned issues are recent, and all of them have been very impressive in terms of market gains.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>We have a skeptic among us in a Modern Bullion thread!
Lets make a list:
Silver - 2006, 2011 ASE Anniversary Sets, 2012 ASE San Francisco Set
Gold - 2006W, 2007W, 2008W, 2011W, 2012W Burnished AGES; 2008W Proof Gold Buffs; 2009 UHR Gold Double Eagle; 2008W, 2009W Gold Liberty Spouses; 2010W, 2011W, 2012W Gold Spouses; 2006 AGE Anniversary Set
Platinum - 2004W, 2008W, 2009W, 2010W, 2011W, 2012W Proof Platinum Eagles
What I find interesting is that FTB is ignoring the obvious. All of the above-mentioned issues are recent, and all of them have been very impressive in terms of market gains. >>
You can't convert a classic (Dinosaur) coin collector into admitting that there is value in moderns and some of the designs are indeed artistically pleasing. I used to be one (classic coin collector with a Dinosaurian mentality) until I "saw the light" $$$.
Point take, amigo....
Miles
<< <i>
<< <i>I'll send you $500 via a PayPal gift. Then in 30 days you need to return $1000 via a PayPal gift. Start another thread to keep us informed of your progress. Anything over the $1000 is your pay for roll searching. What do you say? >>
No thanks, my bankroll is at about $6500 right now, so I have plenty. However, another $4k would be great after my switch to night shift. Won't double your money in a month, though, since I'm doing all the work and over half the capital is mine... I would offer 15% annualized on it, though. Way more than you'll get out of gold, silver, having it sit in your bank account, etc.
<< <i>Plenty of moderns have done well lately. The "high" mintage UHR is an example. I bought 180 Fugly Army clad Unc coins for $20 a peice and sold them for $60 each to a dealer on the East coast, straight check, no ebay fees. >>
Apples and oranges my friend, apples and oranges. A gold (AKA $$$), bullion-based issue versus a collectable non-bullion ($$) based issue... >>
FTB,
While you may hate everything about Moderns, as jmski points out your're just ignoring the obvious.
The money which has been made by many on this thread is really staggering. That's just the fact. I would add 2008 w/rev of 07 ASE to the list. There are others.
As to apples to apples, it's $ to $. Those who have been paying attention to the moderns over the past 6+ years have been able to make some serious money. I've seen nothing in the classics which has even come close in the same time frame.
There are many not on the list, such as the Julia MS70FS and the first 5 pucks which made for incredible flips.
You would do far better to pay attention to some of the moderns threads and make some real $ which you could put into classics instead of just bashing them and making comments which are simply contrary to the facts.
Best, R-