<< <i>"So far nobody has said they have had Lucretia coin orders cancelled by the mint so maybe they had that many extra coins. It is strange they did the Lucretia backorders before the Lucy Hayes backorders, maybe because they didn't want a lot of canceled orders on the one that has the most backordered coins. I will be surprised if the Lucretia unc ends up lower than Lucy."
"So far nobody has said they have had Lucretia coin orders cancelled by the mint so maybe they had that many extra coins. It is strange they did the Lucretia backorders before the Lucy Hayes backorders, maybe because they didn't want a lot of canceled orders on the one that has the most backordered coins. I will be surprised if the Lucretia unc ends up lower than Lucy."
MY REPLY TO THE ABOVE COMMENT (SEE PREVIOUS PAGE):
When the US Mint cut off Hayes and Garfield MS coins, the previous weekly report showed roughly 250+ more Hayes sold to that point than Garfield ... right (high 1900's for Garfield vs close to 2,200's+ for Hayes)?
Assuming that was the case, it appears to me that the US Mint might have had only about 2,250-2,300 total coins produced of each of these two coins, but the Mint could then accept backorders on Garfield to the tune of nearly 300 coins and the Garfield would still be roughly an equal mintage to the Hayes. Which one of the two coins actually ends up the lower mintage would then depend upon which one showed more returns in the end. It would make no logical sense to me at all that the US Mint was "smart enough" to realize demand would be down to about 2,250 coins by the time Hayes rolled around, but then the Mint struck 2,450+ of the Garfield which was the newest coin of the two. So, if my hypothesis proves correct we should see down the road roughly 200 coins that were ordered thereafter cancelled by the Mint. Then, when returns are factored in, which coin becomes the "new" lowest mintage spouse coin is anyone's guess.
In fact, the (mostly) dealers who ordered roughly 525 Garfields in a single week (because we can assume it was not 525 new collectors coming in the final week LOL) may be able to control which coin ends up lower by simply returning some of the lower quality Garfields to the Mint and if it really mattered, I assume that might be a distinct possibility. But, I assume even if one of these coins is a slightly higher mintage than the other, both coins might be roughly equally sought after down the road by collectors or dealers ... after all both of these coins blow away the Julia Tyler mintage by nearly 650-900 coins as well as the other (2) 2011 Mint State spouse coins by a very wide margin.
That is not to say that 2012 and 2013 (and possibly beyond) won't be filled with low mintage gold spouse coins. You really need quite a "bankroll" to speculate in the gold spouse "game". I have seen that first hand. But, it is really shaping up to be a very interesting US coin series ... it was not that long ago on these boards that I was one of just a handful of contributors excited about the entire spouse coin series, while most everyone else simply suggested Liberty spouse was the only game in town down the road. That is no longer so clear ... the interest level seems to be heating up a bit on the non-Liberty gold spouse coins as well.
*** Update: Grandam's (3) coin order was cancelled and I just confirmed that a customer of mine had his (3) orders totaling (70) coins cancelled as well today. That is (73) coins right there and it seems to be heading in the direction I suggested with a few hundred coins filled and a few hundred cancelled and a final mintage in line with Hayes MS in the 2200's. Again, just my 2 cents.
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
Looks like Garfield orders from late in the day 08/07 onwards are being cancelled. I believe that was the date they went on backorder, and they stayed on backorder for a few more days after that. That's time enough for quite a few speculative orders to accumulate, and ultimately to be canceled.
I still believe the final mintage of the unc. Lucretia Garfields will be about the same as that of the Lucy Hayes.
Looking back at the numbers it seems the Garfield unc coin had a 500 coin jump from the last sales numbers to sell out so some of that will probably/likely come off. It does seem to be similar to what happened to the 08 plat unc coins.
The "rarity" of these is very deceiving. In the last issue of Numismatic News they polled the readers about the upcoming 2012 Spouse releases. They asked readers if they planned on buying one. An astounding 0% said yes. I was amazed not one person had any interest in buying one. So these mintages may be low but so is the interest and market for them. I could see the mintages being sub 1000 in the coming years which would make the current low mintages look silly high. I would not bet the farm on any of these coins. But at least you have a half ounce of gold! Speculating in these might prove to be very costly.
<< <i>The "rarity" of these is very deceiving. In the last issue of Numismatic News they polled the readers about the upcoming 2012 Spouse releases. They asked readers if they planned on buying one. An astounding 0% said yes. I was amazed not one person had any interest in buying one. So these mintages may be low but so is the interest and market for them. I could see the mintages being sub 1000 in the coming years which would make the current low mintages look silly high. I would not bet the farm on any of these coins. But at least you have a half ounce of gold! Speculating in these might prove to be very costly. >>
Well stated. In the end, whichever the low mintage coin turns out to be will likely do very well - esp. in MS70FS, of course. That said, as you note, speculating will be very costly with this series. Those who do speculate and end up with the eventual low mintage coin will most certainly have paid a lot to have done so.
The 2011 or 2012 issues may become the actual low mintages for the entire series. With the 20th century presidents' wives beginning to appear next year, the era of obscure presidents is ending. In addition, the low mintages of the Lucy Hayes and Lucretia Garfield have sparked renewed attention to the series, making a low-mintage repeat less likely.
"Their names are Lucy and Lucretia and they are certainly two "hot numbers". And now a number of the country's top coin dealers, as well as numerous dedicated collectors of the gold spouse series, are seriously pursuing them. And, to be clear, we are not talking about two "ordinary" First ladies here. We are referring to what may be a pair of the lowest mintage regular issue coins that have ever been struck by the US Mint in over 95 years! These two coins are none other than the 2011-W Lucretia Garfield and Lucy Hayes Mint State $10 Spouse Gold coins. Let's look a little closer at these two coins. "
The only interest for the Garfield and Hayes MS may be only specualators. Die hard collectors probably bought these at the very beginning of sales, maybe a few stragglers and new collectors will pursue these. The question is: What will the mint do seeing the surge in interest by specualators of these two coins when it comes to producing the 2012s? Do they purposely mint the first run of these coins at 2K? The backorder status appears causing a stir and then mint an additional 1K? Are they that market savvy? If there is enough time in the year they will mint more. They have minted more when backorder status was reached in the past for the spouse series (Buch MS).
The Article was written with my assistance by my 22 year old daughter, Lauren, as well as my 20 year old son Justin (former "Young Numismatist of the Year' at PCGS in 2009). All credit to them was to be given with the Article. Were they credited with writing it? I am out of town right now and can not check on that.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
<< <i>Given the current attention being paid to the First Spouse series, I think these two coins may be the low mintage champs for the entire series. >>
This is a reasonable guess. I'll be interested to see what happens with the second 2012 release in order to gauge extended, renewed interest in the series. But if nothing else it will make for an interesting ride!
<< <i>The "rarity" of these is very deceiving. In the last issue of Numismatic News they polled the readers about the upcoming 2012 Spouse releases. They asked readers if they planned on buying one. An astounding 0% said yes. I was amazed not one person had any interest in buying one. So these mintages may be low but so is the interest and market for them. I could see the mintages being sub 1000 in the coming years which would make the current low mintages look silly high. I would not bet the farm on any of these coins. But at least you have a half ounce of gold! Speculating in these might prove to be very costly. >>
Numismatic News is a fine periodical, but I think their Polling is not very good.
Alice Paul sold in the first week or two: 1,808 - proof 1,394 - unc
Comments
<< <i>I have some on back order,
I got a letter there were quality control issues and they are going to move production to West Point. >>
I think they've been produced at West Point all along.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>
<< <i>I have some on back order,
I got a letter there were quality control issues and they are going to move production to West Point. >>
I think they've been produced at West Point all along. >>
Yes, all the coins have been minted at West Point. Kind of weird that they would mention that, as nothing has changed.
Wondercoin
<< <i>Unless coins were, indeed, minted in Philly but given the W mintmark
Wondercoin >>
Giving all First Spouse collectors the "Willies".
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>I plan to send 25 first spouse gold coins in a bulk submission accroding to PCGS polic (minimum 20 coins for first spouse bulk submission)
Anyone know PCGS pricing policy for first spouse bulk submission? How much do they charge for FS in a first spouse bulk submission? Many thanks. >>
<< <i>"So far nobody has said they have had Lucretia coin orders cancelled by the mint so maybe they had that many extra coins. It is strange they did the Lucretia backorders before the Lucy Hayes backorders, maybe because they didn't want a lot of canceled orders on the one that has the most backordered coins. I will be surprised if the Lucretia unc ends up lower than Lucy."
Wondercoin >>
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Track Order
Order number: 40072832
Order Date: 08/07/2012 at 05:38 PM
Order Status: Your order request has been cancelled.
Well my (3) Garfield's were just cancelled.
GrandAm
<< <i>Alice Paul is listed for Oct 11th, looks like they got things fixed for now. >>
Who's buyin?
I'm in for 3 or so Uncs.
Wondercoin
MY REPLY TO THE ABOVE COMMENT (SEE PREVIOUS PAGE):
When the US Mint cut off Hayes and Garfield MS coins, the previous weekly report showed roughly 250+ more Hayes sold to that point than Garfield ... right (high 1900's for Garfield vs close to 2,200's+ for Hayes)?
Assuming that was the case, it appears to me that the US Mint might have had only about 2,250-2,300 total coins produced of each of these two coins, but the Mint could then accept backorders on Garfield to the tune of nearly 300 coins and the Garfield would still be roughly an equal mintage to the Hayes. Which one of the two coins actually ends up the lower mintage would then depend upon which one showed more returns in the end. It would make no logical sense to me at all that the US Mint was "smart enough" to realize demand would be down to about 2,250 coins by the time Hayes rolled around, but then the Mint struck 2,450+ of the Garfield which was the newest coin of the two. So, if my hypothesis proves correct we should see down the road roughly 200 coins that were ordered thereafter cancelled by the Mint. Then, when returns are factored in, which coin becomes the "new" lowest mintage spouse coin is anyone's guess.
In fact, the (mostly) dealers who ordered roughly 525 Garfields in a single week (because we can assume it was not 525 new collectors coming in the final week LOL) may be able to control which coin ends up lower by simply returning some of the lower quality Garfields to the Mint and if it really mattered, I assume that might be a distinct possibility. But, I assume even if one of these coins is a slightly higher mintage than the other, both coins might be roughly equally sought after down the road by collectors or dealers ... after all both of these coins blow away the Julia Tyler mintage by nearly 650-900 coins as well as the other (2) 2011 Mint State spouse coins by a very wide margin.
That is not to say that 2012 and 2013 (and possibly beyond) won't be filled with low mintage gold spouse coins. You really need quite a "bankroll" to speculate in the gold spouse "game". I have seen that first hand. But, it is really shaping up to be a very interesting US coin series ... it was not that long ago on these boards that I was one of just a handful of contributors excited about the entire spouse coin series, while most everyone else simply suggested Liberty spouse was the only game in town down the road. That is no longer so clear ... the interest level seems to be heating up a bit on the non-Liberty gold spouse coins as well.
As always, just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
*****************************************************************
*** Update: Grandam's (3) coin order was cancelled and I just confirmed that a customer of mine had his (3) orders totaling (70) coins cancelled as well today. That is (73) coins right there and it seems to be heading in the direction I suggested with a few hundred coins filled and a few hundred cancelled and a final mintage in line with Hayes MS in the 2200's. Again, just my 2 cents.
Edit: I have around ~15 Hayes got cancel ordered between Aug 2nd and Aug 3rd.
Wondercoin
I still believe the final mintage of the unc. Lucretia Garfields will be about the same as that of the Lucy Hayes.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
GrandAm
My collection of rare gold, type and more for sale.
I've sent it into our hosts for grading, along with a FS coin and currency set Eagle.
I'm crossing my fingers. Seems like I always get 69s, so I'm due for a couple of 70s.
I've sent it into our hosts for grading, along with a FS coin and currency set Eagle.
I'm crossing my fingers. Seems like I always get 69s, so I'm due for a couple of 70
My last one that shipped was ordered at 4:27 PM on 8/7
Box of 20
mbogoman
https://pcgs.com/setregistry/collectors-showcase/classic-issues-colonials-through-1964/zambezi-collection-trade-dollars/7345Asesabi Lutho
Successful Trades: Swampboy,
They've both been sold out for a couple of months, and if the cancels have been issued, how much longer does it typically take?
<< <i>Maybe everyone but me knows this, but about when would we get some final mintage numbers on the Hayes and Garfield MS Spouses?
They've both been sold out for a couple of months, and if the cancels have been issued, how much longer does it typically take? >>
I have had the impression that it takes about a year. I wish there was an official link for those numbers. Maybe there is but I do not know.
<< <i>Maybe everyone but me knows this, but about when would we get some final mintage numbers on the Hayes and Garfield MS Spouses?
They've both been sold out for a couple of months, and if the cancels have been issued, how much longer does it typically take? >>
I have both and just stuck them in my Safety deposit box and will forget about them until the newer numbers come out. On to Alice Paul!
<< <i>The "rarity" of these is very deceiving. In the last issue of Numismatic News they polled the readers about the upcoming 2012 Spouse releases. They asked readers if they planned on buying one. An astounding 0% said yes. I was amazed not one person had any interest in buying one. So these mintages may be low but so is the interest and market for them. I could see the mintages being sub 1000 in the coming years which would make the current low mintages look silly high. I would not bet the farm on any of these coins. But at least you have a half ounce of gold! Speculating in these might prove to be very costly. >>
Well stated. In the end, whichever the low mintage coin turns out to be will likely do very well - esp. in MS70FS, of course. That said, as you note, speculating will be very costly with this series. Those who do speculate and end up with the eventual low mintage coin will most certainly have paid a lot to have done so.
Good luck to those in the quest.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Article Link
"Their names are Lucy and Lucretia and they are certainly two "hot numbers". And now a number of the country's top coin dealers, as well as numerous dedicated collectors of the gold spouse series, are seriously pursuing them. And, to be clear, we are not talking about two "ordinary" First ladies here. We are referring to what may be a pair of the lowest mintage regular issue coins that have ever been struck by the US Mint in over 95 years! These two coins are none other than the 2011-W Lucretia Garfield and Lucy Hayes Mint State $10 Spouse Gold coins. Let's look a little closer at these two coins. "
Box of 20
Wondercoin
It's Ladies Night and Two Hot Numbers are at the Party
By Mitch, Lauren, Justin Spivack from WonderCoins.com
Given the current attention being paid to the First Spouse series, I think these two coins may be the low mintage champs for the entire series.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>Given the current attention being paid to the First Spouse series, I think these two coins may be the low mintage champs for the entire series. >>
This is a reasonable guess. I'll be interested to see what happens with the second 2012 release in order to gauge extended, renewed interest in the series. But if nothing else it will make for an interesting ride!
<< <i>The "rarity" of these is very deceiving. In the last issue of Numismatic News they polled the readers about the upcoming 2012 Spouse releases. They asked readers if they planned on buying one. An astounding 0% said yes. I was amazed not one person had any interest in buying one. So these mintages may be low but so is the interest and market for them. I could see the mintages being sub 1000 in the coming years which would make the current low mintages look silly high. I would not bet the farm on any of these coins. But at least you have a half ounce of gold! Speculating in these might prove to be very costly. >>
Numismatic News is a fine periodical, but I think their Polling is not very good.
Alice Paul sold in the first week or two: 1,808 - proof 1,394 - unc
Wondercoin
Still no other spouse coins scheduled.
And they have Frances Cleveland out on Nov. 15th.
Frances Cleveland Unc
<< <i>And they have Frances Cleveland out on Nov. 15th. >>
Who is so popular that I predict that there will be a sequel.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>Alice Paul Unc 1,781 Up 85.
And they have Frances Cleveland out on Nov. 15th.
Frances Cleveland Unc
Those ladies look eager to hear all about the president's staff!