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Major Low in Spouse mintage/Lucy Hayes UNC -Sold Out-

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Comments

  • HalfStrikeHalfStrike Posts: 2,202 ✭✭✭
    Looks like the Lucy unc went up 3 coins to 2263 and the Garfield unc stayed at 2498 so Lucy is 235 less.

    Julia Grant Uncirculated (2011) 2,918 45
    Lucy Hayes Proof (2011) 3,456 51
    Lucy Hayes Uncirculated (2011) 2,263* 3
    Lucretia Garfield Proof (2011) 3,046 29
    Lucretia Garfield Unci (2011) 2,498* 0

  • Looks like Hayes should be the winner by + or - 200. If the Garfields were bought to flip and there are still lots of backorders out there, the flippers only have 7 days to return them. If not returned, then they become part of the mintage. Even returns/cancellations will probably be filled by backorders.
  • CoinspongeCoinsponge Posts: 3,927 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Word is around the Mint that the reason they're having problems striking the Alice Paul coins is because the ghostly form of Ellen Herndon Paul, Chester's first and only wife and love of his mortal life, keeps showing up on the mint floor and shrieking at workers preparing to strike the gold blanks that would eventually become Alice Paul coins.

    Cries of "Who is that woman? Chester! Chester! Were you sleeping with her?" have been ringing through the production floor, scaring off most contractors and even the most seasoned employees.

    image

    This is probably how it's going down. >>




    image

    Imagine what kind of errors might be found.
    Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
  • CoinspongeCoinsponge Posts: 3,927 ✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Do you think the Mint is baiting us to jump on the 5000 mintage Alice Paul coin?

    Could they actually be that clever?
    >>




    Can we actually be that dumb would seem to be the appropriate question.

    I'm thinking most that will ever want these pieces are buying them now. And most that want them only want to flip for a profit.




    I collect them for an investment into gold along with history and possible collector value. There are always a few flippers looking for any new opportunities and these might be on their radar. Flippers are like a flock of birds. You hardly ever know which way they will go.
    Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
  • OverdateOverdate Posts: 7,162 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Looks like Hayes should be the winner by + or - 200. If the Garfields were bought to flip and there are still lots of backorders out there, the flippers only have 7 days to return them. If not returned, then they become part of the mintage. Even returns/cancellations will probably be filled by backorders. >>


    I'm betting that Hayes and Garfield final mintages will be approximately equal, at 2200 and change. Garfield was on "backorder" for quite a bit longer than Hayes, and likely received many more orders that will never be filled. This same situation occurred several times with the 2006 and 2008 plats, and after the unfilled orders were backed out, the "final" mintages were found to be several hundred less than had initially been reported.

    My Adolph A. Weinman signature :)

  • HalfStrikeHalfStrike Posts: 2,202 ✭✭✭
    Anyone have any action yet on the backorders in these? imageMine are still cancel box and backorder status.

  • mariner67mariner67 Posts: 2,746 ✭✭✭
    My Lucretia backordered till Sept 10 now.
    Cancel box still there.
    I was lucky to pick up 2 Lucy's at the ANA.
    Probably will unload one.
    In any event, gold is gold and I like it!
    Best.
    Successful trades/buys/sells with gdavis70, adriana, wondercoin, Weiss, nibanny, IrishMike, commoncents05, pf70collector, kyleknap, barefootjuan, coindeuce, WhiteTornado, Nefprollc, ajw, JamesM, PCcoins, slinc, coindudeonebay,beernuts, and many more
  • mbogomanmbogoman Posts: 5,247 ✭✭✭✭✭
    My Lucretia backordered till Sept 11.
    Cancel box still there.

    Not holding out much hope anymore...
  • GRANDAMGRANDAM Posts: 8,774 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Don't give up yet. Back when the 20th Anniversary Silver Eagles came out I had several orders in. One order was ordered late and was backordered from the start. About 45 days after I got my original ordered delivered the backordered order came in so there is still hope.

    GrandAm image
    GrandAm :)
  • goldbuffalogoldbuffalo Posts: 651 ✭✭✭
    I'm also still waiting.

    Lucy Hayes seems to be the key though, with a 235 difference between Lucy (2263) and Garfield (2498).

    Of course both of these blow away Julia (2861).

  • OverdateOverdate Posts: 7,162 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Julia final mintage was actually 3143.

    The latest numbers we have for Lucy Hayes and Lucretia Garfield are order totals, including "backorders" that will likely never be filled. Based on past experience, when final mintage figures are released, these two coins will likely be approximately equal at around 2200 each.

    My Adolph A. Weinman signature :)

  • One Lucy Hayes PCGS MS70 First Strike just sold for $3,999 !
    BST reference: wondercoin, cone10, fivecents, jmdm1194, goldman86
  • We know that the Mint is striking these coins in small volumes now due to almost zero demand. If they strike to 2500 planchets and a higher than normal scrap rate shows up (may be likely given they have stated they are having starburst problems) then we could see sub 2000 mintages show up this year. From the scrap rate trend data I have seen the uncs tend to have wider scrap rate swings than the proofs (go figure). I think I am going to try to come up with some money for this years spouses.

  • philographerphilographer Posts: 1,329 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>image

    Is Lucy applauding an Olympic competition?

    image >>



    No, she has sent the children outside to pick up after the dog.

    He who knows he has enough is rich.

  • CoinspongeCoinsponge Posts: 3,927 ✭✭✭
    Well Julia is now history. All the Uncs are cleaned out for now.
    Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
  • OverdateOverdate Posts: 7,162 ✭✭✭✭✭
    If the Lucy and Lucretia proofs come in below 3600 each, they should acquire significant premiums also.

    If the price of gold keeps going up, all the 2012 issues will carry 4-figure prices from the Mint. This fact alone should limit sales and final mintages.

    My Adolph A. Weinman signature :)



  • << <i>Anyone have any action yet on the backorders in these? imageMine are still cancel box and backorder status. >>

    Looks like they are going to in stock and reserved status.
  • mariner67mariner67 Posts: 2,746 ✭✭✭
    Same here!
    Successful trades/buys/sells with gdavis70, adriana, wondercoin, Weiss, nibanny, IrishMike, commoncents05, pf70collector, kyleknap, barefootjuan, coindeuce, WhiteTornado, Nefprollc, ajw, JamesM, PCcoins, slinc, coindudeonebay,beernuts, and many more
  • HalfStrikeHalfStrike Posts: 2,202 ✭✭✭
    Strange why they are filling the Lucretia Garfield unc orders before the Lucy Hayes unc. Cancel box is gone for Lucretia, maybe shipping Monday.


  • << <i>Strange why they are filling the Lucretia Garfield unc orders before the Lucy Hayes unc. Cancel box is gone for Lucretia, maybe shipping Monday. >>

    My cc charge from the Mint is "pending" so assume it will ship early in the week.
  • DeepCoinDeepCoin Posts: 2,781 ✭✭✭
    Why do I think that First Spouse coins will be the modern equivalent of three cent silver proof coins.
    Retired United States Mint guy, now working on an Everyman Type Set.
  • pf70collectorpf70collector Posts: 6,754 ✭✭✭
    Both of my MS Garfields also are in stock and reserved. Shipped 9/26.
  • 2011 LUCRETIA GARFIELD 1/2 OZ GOLD UNC...............................shipped on 09/26/2012
  • mariner67mariner67 Posts: 2,746 ✭✭✭


    << <i>2011 LUCRETIA GARFIELD 1/2 OZ GOLD UNC...............................shipped on 09/26/2012 >>



    Same here.
    Successful trades/buys/sells with gdavis70, adriana, wondercoin, Weiss, nibanny, IrishMike, commoncents05, pf70collector, kyleknap, barefootjuan, coindeuce, WhiteTornado, Nefprollc, ajw, JamesM, PCcoins, slinc, coindudeonebay,beernuts, and many more
  • << 2011 LUCRETIA GARFIELD 1/2 OZ GOLD UNC...............................shipped on 09/26/2012 >>

    Same here, order placed 8-07 at 1:04 PM and 1:17PM.
  • wondercoinwondercoin Posts: 17,005 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I have a customer that is backordered on (70) units of the MS Garfield with a ship date now extended out to 10/11/12 (that were ordered fairly "late in the game"). Obviously, if these (70) units get cancelled, it might support Overdate's theory that the final mintage on Garfield will be around the same as Hayes once all the dust settles (perhaps even slightly lower, or slightly higher). We'll see. In the meantime, it certainly creates "chaos" within the spouse series for collectors I believe. Not just chaos on which particular spouse is the lowest mintage thus far (which can change with each passing year anyway), but in trying to place fair valuations on all of the coins in the entire series thus far. On the other hand, chaos often creates great opportunity for those who do their homework and study their series "inside and out".

    As always, just my 2 cents.


    Wondercoin
    Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
  • GRANDAMGRANDAM Posts: 8,774 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i><< 2011 LUCRETIA GARFIELD 1/2 OZ GOLD UNC...............................shipped on 09/26/2012 >>

    Same here, order placed 8-07 at 1:04 PM and 1:17PM. >>



    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Well, I have (3) on backorder placed 8/7/12 @ 5:58 PM. From the above order date hopefully my coins will ship soon image

    GrandAm image
    GrandAm :)
  • My order of 10 Garfield UNC also shipped today!
    BST reference: wondercoin, cone10, fivecents, jmdm1194, goldman86
  • GRANDAMGRANDAM Posts: 8,774 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>My order of 10 Garfield UNC also shipped today! >>



    -----------------------------------------------------------------------

    What was your order date & time?
    GrandAm :)
  • bigolebigole Posts: 385 ✭✭✭
    Mine shipped as well. Only one, but I'm glad to have it.

    Bought at 130pm on 8/7/12.
  • pf70collectorpf70collector Posts: 6,754 ✭✭✭
    My last one that shipped was ordered at 4:27 PM on 8/7 That one got suspended right away but then went into process. Selling both ASAP.


  • << <i>

    << <i>My order of 10 Garfield UNC also shipped today! >>



    -----------------------------------------------------------------------

    What was your order date & time? >>



    According to the order page: Order Date: 08/07/2012 at 12:53 AM

    It was 8/7 10:41am (PST) when I received the confirmation email.

    I guess with most of the Garfield orders filled, we will see a lot show up on the bay.

    Meanwhile, the Hayes is still in low supply, so it will be the most expensive First Spouse for sometime even though the actual audited number of Garfield might be lowered than the Hayes.

    BST reference: wondercoin, cone10, fivecents, jmdm1194, goldman86
  • OverdateOverdate Posts: 7,162 ✭✭✭✭✭
    A total of 525 unc. Lucretias were ordered during the final week of sales, according to the August 14 Mint sales report. Presumably the period covered was Aug. 7 through Aug. 13. I believe the "backorder" status occurred on Aug. 7, with the coin going dark a few days later.

    The question is, how many of these 525 coins actually existed at time they were ordered? It would have been reasonable for the Mint to strike similar quantities of the Lucy Hayes and the Lucretia Garfield, in my estimation around 2200 for each. If that is the case, only around 225 to 250 of the 525 coins ordered in the final week of sales will be delivered. So far, none of the recent shipments have an order date later than Aug. 7. Those who ordered after this date may be less likely to have their orders filled. IMO.

    My Adolph A. Weinman signature :)

  • HalfStrikeHalfStrike Posts: 2,202 ✭✭✭
    So far nobody has said they have had Lucretia coin orders cancelled by the mint so maybe they had that many extra coins. It is strange they did the Lucretia backorders before the Lucy Hayes backorders, maybe because they didn't want a lot of canceled orders on the one that has the most backordered coins.

    I will be surprised if the Lucretia unc ends up lower than Lucy.
  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,955 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I think that we may very well see some new lows in the as yet to be issued '12s. I'll be stocking up.
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!


  • << <i>I think that we may very well see some new lows in the as yet to be issued '12s. I'll be stocking up. >>



    Raufus, why do you think new low will be in '12?

    BST reference: wondercoin, cone10, fivecents, jmdm1194, goldman86
  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,955 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I think that Eric (as usual) cited some issues which make this very possible:

    The Mint has stated that there are significant production problems with a couple of the issues.

    There will be four issues (8 coins) released in a very short time. With high gold prices, a bad economy, people's focus on the Holidays, so many issued at once, etc. and then the first of the 13s coming out early in the year it's easy to see how some of the '12s could come in very low.

    Given the quality issues, in addition to low mintage there is the possibility of condition rarity as well.

    As mentioned, Eric was the first to point much of this out, I'm just passing on the message.

    Edited: Meant to add, please see Eric's actual comments in the big moderns or one of the spouse threads (don't remember which one) as I don't want to misrepresent anything that he said.
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!


  • << <i>I think that Eric (as usual) cited some issues which make this very possible:

    The Mint has stated that there are significant production problems with a couple of the issues.

    There will be four issues (8 coins) released in a very short time. With high gold prices, a bad economy, people's focus on the Holidays, so many issued at once, etc. and then the first of the 13s coming out early in the year it's easy to see how some of the '12s could come in very low.

    Given the quality issues, in addition to low mintage there is the possibility of condition rarity as well.

    As mentioned, Eric was the first to point much of this out, I'm just passing on the message. >>



    Besides the production problem (I think it is very important too), I don't think the higher gold price, and the very crowded release time will be contribute to lower mintage.

    It seems that the mint now has adopted the "keep them on the self until they are sold out" model. The unofficial 1 year selling period is no longer used. So, it seems the only thing affecting the mintage is how many the mintage strike * the yield.




    BST reference: wondercoin, cone10, fivecents, jmdm1194, goldman86
  • OverdateOverdate Posts: 7,162 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I think it's likely there will be only one production run for each of the 2012 coins, based on anticipated sales. Once January 1, 2013 arrives the Mint can't strike any more.

    My Adolph A. Weinman signature :)

  • wondercoinwondercoin Posts: 17,005 ✭✭✭✭✭
    "So far nobody has said they have had Lucretia coin orders cancelled by the mint so maybe they had that many extra coins. It is strange they did the Lucretia backorders before the Lucy Hayes backorders, maybe because they didn't want a lot of canceled orders on the one that has the most backordered coins. I will be surprised if the Lucretia unc ends up lower than Lucy."

    When the US Mint cut off Hayes and Garfield MS coins, the previous weekly report showed roughly 250+ more Hayes sold to that point than Garfield ... right (high 1900's for Garfield vs close to 2,200's+ for Hayes)?

    Assuming that was the case, it appears to me that the US Mint might have had only about 2,250-2,300 total coins produced of each of these two coins, but the Mint could then accept backorders on Garfield to the tune of nearly 300 coins and the Garfield would still be roughly an equal mintage to the Hayes. Which one of the two coins actually ends up the lower mintage would then depend upon which one showed more returns in the end. It would make no logical sense to me at all that the US Mint was "smart enough" to realize demand would be down to about 2,250 coins by the time Hayes rolled around, but then the Mint struck 2,450+ of the Garfield which was the newest coin of the two. So, if my hypothesis proves correct we should see down the road roughly 200 coins that were ordered thereafter cancelled by the Mint. Then, when returns are factored in, which coin becomes the "new" lowest mintage spouse coin is anyone's guess.

    In fact, the (mostly) dealers who ordered roughly 525 Garfields in a single week (because we can assume it was not 525 new collectors coming in the final week LOL) may be able to control which coin ends up lower by simply returning some of the lower quality Garfields to the Mint and if it really mattered, I assume that might be a distinct possibility. But, I assume even if one of these coins is a slightly higher mintage than the other, both coins might be roughly equally sought after down the road by collectors or dealers ... after all both of these coins blow away the Julia Tyler mintage by nearly 650-900 coins as well as the other (2) 2011 Mint State spouse coins by a very wide margin.

    That is not to say that 2012 and 2013 (and possibly beyond) won't be filled with low mintage gold spouse coins. You really need quite a "bankroll" to speculate in the gold spouse "game". I have seen that first hand. But, it is really shaping up to be a very interesting US coin series ... it was not that long ago on these boards that I was one of just a handful of contributors excited about the entire spouse coin series, while most everyone else simply suggested Liberty spouse was the only game in town down the road. That is no longer so clear ... the interest level seems to be heating up a bit on the non-Liberty gold spouse coins as well.

    As always, just my 2 cents.

    Wondercoin
    Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.


  • << <i>"So far nobody has said they have had Lucretia coin orders cancelled by the mint so maybe they had that many extra coins. It is strange they did the Lucretia backorders before the Lucy Hayes backorders, maybe because they didn't want a lot of canceled orders on the one that has the most backordered coins. I will be surprised if the Lucretia unc ends up lower than Lucy."

    When the US Mint cut off Hayes and Garfield MS coins, the previous weekly report showed roughly 250+ more Hayes sold to that point than Garfield ... right (high 1900's for Garfield vs close to 2,200's+ for Hayes)?

    Assuming that was the case, it appears to me that the US Mint might have had only about 2,250-2,300 total coins produced of each of these two coins, but the Mint could then accept backorders on Garfield to the tune of nearly 300 coins and the Garfield would still be roughly an equal mintage to the Hayes. Which one of the two coins actually ends up the lower mintage would then depend upon which one showed more returns in the end. It would make no logical sense to me at all that the US Mint was "smart enough" to realize demand would be down to about 2,250 coins by the time Hayes rolled around, but then the Mint struck 2,450+ of the Garfield which was the newest coin of the two. So, if my hypothesis proves correct we should see down the road roughly 200 coins that were ordered thereafter cancelled by the Mint. Then, when returns are factored in, which coin becomes the "new" lowest mintage spouse coin is anyone's guess.

    In fact, the (mostly) dealers who ordered roughly 525 Garfields in a single week (because we can assume it was not 525 new collectors coming in the final week LOL) may be able to control which coin ends up lower by simply returning some of the lower quality Garfields to the Mint and if it really mattered, I assume that might be a distinct possibility. But, I assume even if one of these coins is a slightly higher mintage than the other, both coins might be roughly equally sought after down the road by collectors or dealers ... after all both of these coins blow away the Julia Tyler mintage by nearly 650-900 coins as well as the other (2) 2011 Mint State spouse coins by a very wide margin.

    That is not to say that 2012 and 2013 (and possibly beyond) won't be filled with low mintage gold spouse coins. You really need quite a "bankroll" to speculate in the gold spouse "game". I have seen that first hand. But, it is really shaping up to be a very interesting US coin series ... it was not that long ago on these boards that I was one of just a handful of contributors excited about the entire spouse coin series, while most everyone else simply suggested Liberty spouse was the only game in town down the road. That is no longer so clear ... the interest level seems to be heating up a bit on the non-Liberty gold spouse coins as well.

    As always, just my 2 cents.

    Wondercoin >>



    Thanks Mitch! Nice post!
    BST reference: wondercoin, cone10, fivecents, jmdm1194, goldman86
  • OverdateOverdate Posts: 7,162 ✭✭✭✭✭
    "In fact, the (mostly) dealers who ordered roughly 525 Garfields in a single week (because we can assume it was not 525 new collectors coming in the final week LOL) may be able to control which coin ends up lower by simply returning some of the lower quality Garfields to the Mint and if it really mattered, I assume that might be a distinct possibility."

    There is one good reason why dealers might not want to return the lower quality Garfields to the Mint: even raw and MS69 Garfields are fetching significant premiums on eBay, selling at $1300 and up. Compare that with the refund of $941 or so that dealers can recover for each coin returned to the Mint.

    Even if some of the Garfields are returned by dealers, it will not necessarily lower the final mintage. There are still unfilled "backorders" for the coin, and presumably the Mint would ship undamaged returns to those next in line. In fact, that may be why no backorders have yet been cancelled by the Mint.

    My Adolph A. Weinman signature :)

  • wondercoinwondercoin Posts: 17,005 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Overdate: I agree with you, but, HYPOTHETICALLY if a dealer had received an order for 200-250 Garfields and could return 25-50 lesser quality units to better the chance his 200 remaining Garfield units were the lowest mintage spouse, it wouldn't surprise me that was done. Or, (after receiving the proper govt. permits and approvals) publicly melt the 50 coins into a gold bar like we saw in 2007 with many of the coins to bring attention to the series. LOL.

    But seriously, as I noted ... in my opinion it really does not "matter" so I do not envision any of the actions taking place that could have taken place had THE very lowest mintage spouse coin really mattered all that much at this point in the series run.

    But, the final audited numbers on the 2011 coins should be very interesting.

    Just my 2 cents (not to mention a piece of the plot I might use on my first fictional novel about the gold spouse series).

    Wondercoin

    Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
  • HalfStrikeHalfStrike Posts: 2,202 ✭✭✭
    As it turns out the Liberty coins have ended up to be among the highest mintage of the spouse coins, especially if you dump out the first year mintages. They are the most beautiful but it will be interesting to see if those mintages can overcome the lowest mintages we are getting in this series.

  • goldbuffalogoldbuffalo Posts: 651 ✭✭✭
    Order number: 40070xxx

    Order Date: 08/07/2012 at 03:13 PM

    In the House.


    As for the 2012 maybe having lower mintages, probably not. Rarities and low mintages happen when no one is looking. Everyone is looking. I'll buy my one coin, as I have done since the beginning, but speculating on which one will be the next lowest will probably be a losing proposition.

  • HalfStrikeHalfStrike Posts: 2,202 ✭✭✭
    Almost two months for the Lucy Hayes unc on backorder, it can't be this difficult.

    goldbuffalo I think it will depend on how many they strike going into the new year as they can't make more once it turns 2013.
  • They put Joe Biden in charge of this. He's been busy biting them because he thinks there is chocolate in the inside.

  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,955 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Almost two months for the Lucy Hayes unc on backorder, it can't be this difficult.

    goldbuffalo I think it will depend on how many they strike going into the new year as they can't make more once it turns 2013. >>



    Very true. I think that it's looking good for the spouses which are due by year's end.
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
  • I plan to send 25 first spouse gold coins in a bulk submission accroding to PCGS polic (minimum 20 coins for first spouse bulk submission)

    Anyone know PCGS pricing policy for first spouse bulk submission? How much do they charge for FS in a first spouse bulk submission? Many thanks.
    To the free man, the country is the collection of individuals who compose it, not something over and above them. -M. Friedman
  • seateddimeseateddime Posts: 6,180 ✭✭✭
    I have some on back order,

    I got a letter there were quality control issues and they are going to move production to West Point.
    I seldom check PM's but do check emails often jason@seated.org

    Buying top quality Seated Dimes in Gem BU and Proof.

    Buying great coins - monster eye appeal only.

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