Article about the death of the Blue Sheet
Elcontador
Posts: 7,425 ✭✭✭✭✭
I received an e-mail about this yesterday. Mike Sherman wrote the article. Interestingly, he gave a number of examples about how various generic coins in MS 65 are now worth a fraction of their value when slabbing began in 1986. Furthermore, today, even in MS 66, these same coins are worth a fraction of the 1986 pricing of their MS 65 counterparts.
You can add numerous other coins to the list, like the 1883 No Cents Nickel, PF 3 Cent Silver, etc. etc.
No one has mentioned this so I thought I'd create a thread inviting comments. I don't know whether these values have plummeted due a lack interest in these coins, gradeflation and resulting increased pops, or how much of each.
He then gave other examples of sought after rare coins in 1986 - coins which most of couldn't afford then, let alone now - have skyrocketed in value in the interim.
My takeaway from this is that unless you either playing in the deep end of the pool, or are using spending money to purchase coin(s), you need to ask yourself why you are considering purchasing a particular coin.
I practice what I preach.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
Comments
It's not a coincidence that coins commonly seen at coin shows are either very common or very tough. The sweet spot in the market seems to be the coins in the middle value wise ($250 to $1,000 as an example). To have coins encapsulated that have an upside potential of say $100 is a losing proposition. One miss can make a break even submission a money loser.
Finding coins in the profitable range that will grade is a task unto itself.
The Blue Sheet like everything else got more expensive to compile and purchase. Much of the info contained in it was on a downhill slide as well. The info contained inside was fairly available anyway I suppose.
Interesting information, thanks
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Comparing 1986 to now is not the BEST way to show the decline in value because the demand for PCGS slabs in 86 far outstripped their availability. I recall buying an MS64 1921 Morgan from David Hall for $110 in 1986 because I wanted a PCGS slab.
I think a more pertinent illustration of the decline in values of common certified coins can be seen if you you look at the last 5-10 years. There are a crapload of examples.
How about a 1949-D Franklin in MS66FBL:
In 2013 it was a $5000 coin
today, only five years later one can be had for $1000
Most US coins are actually very common. As the collector base declines this factor of being common becomes more obvious and willingness to buy such material plummets.
Internet of the last 20 years has redefined what a rarity is. Search for the 1909-S VDB Lincoln on Ebay. Listings will be in the scores. Same with the 1893-S Morgan. Every coin worth much above melt will always find a home with a collector. Will the post baby boom generation have the interest or the means to drive common coins of the highest quality to stratospheric numbers. That is doubtful.
Part of what we have witnessed regarding the loss of value from one grade to another over time is that the Bluesheet typically represented the worst possible example of any coin that was likely to be found in a specific graded TPG holder. In other words, the Bluesheet recorded the historical mistakes of the TPGs. Regardless of demand or the broader market, over time the mistakes would pile up; even if they did not pile up as a percentage, they were guaranteed to pile up as an absolute number.
Although not intended, the Bluesheet morphed into a market recording of TPG HOF mistakes.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
First, allow me to dispel the myth of the "death of the Bluesheet". The Bluesheet is not dead, it's information (values) have simply been melded into the new "Monthly Greysheet" where they properly belong. The Bluesheet values for Morgan dollars, for example, now appear adjacent to their Greysheet values. These values are also available on our web site and pricing app for paid subscribers to this sheet.
Now, as to what those values represent, the Bluesheet values are technically the highest "sight unseen" bid for a PCGS or NGC graded coin. In the absence of a competitive bid for a certain coin we use the lowest recently traded value that we can rely on. Often, this is auction data, but can also be from other trade sources.
The idea is that a reader of the Monthly Greysheet will use the Bluesheet and Greysheet to represent a natural hi-low spread. You should value a coin on a wholesale level somewhere between this spread. High end (PQ) coins, old holders, premium toning, etc can easily trade over Greysheet levels, so it's really important that you work with someone knowledgeable in the trade when buying and selling expensive coins.
Whitman Brands: President/CEO (www.greysheet.com; www.whitman.com)
PNG: Executive Director (www.pngdealers.org)
"""Now, as to what those values represent, the Bluesheet values are technically the highest "sight unseen" bid for a PCGS or NGC graded coin. In the absence of a competitive bid for a certain coin we use the lowest recently traded value that we can rely on. Often, this is auction data, but can also be from other trade sources."""
John, how are you defining "sight unseen"? Do you mean that the coin has to be viewed in hand to qualify as "sight seen", vs digital auction images? A lot of coins trade at auction on imaging alone.
The track record shows that every series that I get heavily involved in tanks. But not until I have spent several thousand on it. The series recovers immediate after I sell.
I am the Joe Btfsplk of numismatics.
Cheers
Bob
Thank you for the idea.
With my luck, if I bought an 1804 dollar, someone would uncover a hoard of thousands that were never known. If I threw a fiver up in the air it would come down a summons.
Sight unseen means exactly that. You can contact a dealer who has a SU bid up for a particular coin in a particular grade and "hit" their bid at that number. It doesn't matter what the coin looks like. They cannot return the coin. This only applies to dealer to dealer networks where these bids are listed. CAC also works the same way. If the coin is CAC'd, you can hit the bids...again, no return privilege.
Very well said. "Sight unseen" generally means you are a buyer of said coin in said holder at that price. You don't get the option of later saying,"um, there's a spot on the reverse," or "a scratch I didn't see", etc. Dealers often talk to each other in jargon like "I have two PCGS MS65 Barber quarters. What will you pay Sight unseen?" or "done deal"?
Whitman Brands: President/CEO (www.greysheet.com; www.whitman.com)
PNG: Executive Director (www.pngdealers.org)
It's pretty obvious that if the seller has multiple examples of a coin, that the piece he is going to ship at the lower, sight unseen price is not going to be the best coin he's got. Therefore the "mistake" concept that TomB laid out is closer to what the Blue Sheet prices are.
As a dealer I stopped subscribing to the Blue Sheet because I did not deal in that sort of material. The only time I touched it was when I had to take it in trade from a customer or had to buy it because it was part of a package. Then I blew it out to another dealer ASAP. I really did not to try to retail the off-grade material to my regular customers.
The Blue Sheet isn't so much dead as incorporated in the new Greysheet.
None of them have died, it just depends on what color paper I have in the printer when I do an ebay sold search for a particular grade type (add the modifiers) search.
The bidder is assuming (and probably will receive) a drecky coin which no doubt is reflected in a necessarily tepid bid. Why would you plug in an auction result in place of an actual bid as the coins have been examined at least over the internet?
Many coins in different grades have no bids (for a variety of reasons). I'm not speaking for John, but I assume he is trying to give the market "relevant" information. Almost all BS bids are "low" assuming the worst possible example. These bids will get "hit" for a variety of reasons, and over the years, I have seen examples of great coins being sold at these bids. The reasons are varied, but many small shops around the country send coins to our hosts and need to sell almost immediately due to cash flow. For example, they may have bought a certain coin for $500, had it graded, and now sell to the highest SUS bidder at $3500. It doesn't matter that the coin is worth sat $4500 in the marketplace. A quick profit and they get their cash (plus more) back for the next purchase.
Was this Vida Blue's cousin.....Great curveball but his fastball was dead straight....and over the center field fence!
The CDN has a good article on understanding the relationship between the blue and grey and how certain dates can have wide differences between the 2.
The new CDN with everything in one place is a fantastic Reference, love how it’s organized. Not only this but the CPG provides retail pricing guide directly linked to the CDN. I use their phone app which is super.
I don’t believe the Bluesheet is going anywhere soon. I know of one shop dealer uses this purchase from walk-in traffic then flip at grey at shows as his table one of first ones I visit after setting up.
If there is a big gap between blue and grey and the coin is offered to me by walkup seller at a show my offer close to or at blue. In this market I certainly don’t want be high buyer lol. So many times I have seen these particular issues take a big hit on the grey especially where the next grade down bid much lower. Be careful bidding / making offers on this material.
Sadly many non dealer people selling coins in this market are like a deer in the headlights - they probably shb buying ms69 slabbed material close to melt.