Question on how the PCGS Price Guide Prices are determined?

WingedLiberty1957

So i've been wondering about this for years. Maybe someone here knows the answer.

PCGS has a fairly complete Price Guide online. Does anyone know how PCGS comes up with a price for a Singular Coin in a very high grade Pop 1/0?

Do they look at the sales price of that one coin?
Or do they do some other sort of mathematical equation?

If there is just 1 coin in that grid. And that coin sold for $10,000 in an auction ... shouldn't the guide price say $10,000?

Or might it say less for some reason ... and what would that reason be?

leothelyon

What if there has been 0 coins sold at auction but it fetches that listed $10,000 in a private sale anyway? How is this justified? But they likely compare low pops, mintage's and price values of other established coins.......pretty much like we do when we come up with a selling price after we weigh all the variables.........is my guessimation.

blitzdude

Most prices in the PCGS price guide seem to be at least 25-30% over market value. I would suspect pop 1/0 coins to be no different but must confess, I have not spent much time looking at such coins. I would stick with a publication like Greysheet if your interested in what the market is really doing. Even so many of their prices seem to be on the high end in the current market.

gtstang

You would think it's based on sales but I question that. Sometimes the price guide is very far off.
I have also noticed some pop 1/0 coins that do not have a value attached.

WingedLiberty1957

Great info and thoughts. Thank you to all that posted.

TommyType

I think it comes down to this: No matter WHAT price they put on a low pop coin, and no matter HOW they arrived at it, it will be wrong. It's like trying to predict the future.

jmlanzaf

@blitzdude said:
Most prices in the PCGS price guide seem to be at least 25-30% over market value. I would suspect pop 1/0 coins to be no different but must confess, I have not spent much time looking at such coins. I would stick with a publication like Greysheet if your interested in what the market is really doing. Even so many of their prices seem to be on the high end in the current market.

This!

Especially true of widgets, maybe even more than pop 1 coins. Or, maybe I should say it is less forgivable for widgets which trade DAILY.

BillJones

@blitzdude said:
Most prices in the PCGS price guide seem to be at least 25-30% over market value. I would suspect pop 1/0 coins to be no different but must confess, I have not spent much time looking at such coins. I would stick with a publication like Greysheet if your interested in what the market is really doing. Even so many of their prices seem to be on the high end in the current market.

In the cases of widgets, I agree with you. Those pieces can be obtained for less.

On the more difficult material, it's a toss-up. As I often joke, every time I bid on something in an auction, the bids go crazy. Using the “Coin Facts” numbers as a guide, I have frequently been outbid in auctions, despite the fact that previous, recent auction results have been lower than the PCGS guidelines.

ricko

The first step in the analysis is the key word 'guide'. As such, it is not intended to be strictly accurate. I do not know the methods employed to arrive at these figures, so cannot speak with authority. However, much as prices in the Redbook are generally high, I notice these other resources tend to be on the high end. My method is to look at current auctions (usually high), price guides, and then arrive at a figure I am comfortable with.... unless, of course, it is a 'must have' item... Cheers, RickO

Gazes

@blitzdude said:
Most prices in the PCGS price guide seem to be at least 25-30% over market value. I would suspect pop 1/0 coins to be no different but must confess, I have not spent much time looking at such coins. I would stick with a publication like Greysheet if your interested in what the market is really doing. Even so many of their prices seem to be on the high end in the current market.

I would disagree that most top pop 1/0 coins have been crushing the PCGS price guide (especially for gold).

lusterlover

As stated, if the pop 1/0 has not been traded, our hosts have to make an educated guess. I have a pop 1/0 that has never traded (I made the coin). A number is needed regardless for the 1% guarantee premium. That's probably why they stick a number in the slot.

1tommy

Depends who you are. I was told years ago by Jamie that they only count auctions that have more than 1 bidder. I also have learned to email Jamie EVERYTIME I BUY a coin and send him the link to the sale. Now if you notice in coin facts it will show the prices and where the coin was sold. And Yet in the last 3 heritage auctions I have seen coins sell for double of price guide and NO adjustment.

So all I can figure is WE have to send them the info. Now on the other hand a WELL known dealer sells a Top Pop Variety for 10 Grand and wammo the guide gets adjusted to that sale? Now that is only 1 person buying the coin and yet it counts? One month ago I sent links to Jamie and within 2 weeks he adjusted the price up on those two coins. Did the same thing a few weeks ago and crickets..........

I own 1 top pop and there is no price in the guide for it or the one in lesser grade and yet there are coins that don't even exist in the grade and they show a price. So in the end I guess I have no idea... I have come to the conclusion that I collect for me and for right now the guide means nothing until my heirs sell my coins......and than it won't matter to me if I am buried in them......or with them......

Enjoy Tom

roadrunner

Generally, for 80% or more of routinely available US Coins, the price guide is 50% above wholesale trading levels. In other words, wholesale buying is generally around 60-70% of retail....for the majority of "commonly available" US coins.

My experience with 19th century pop top coins that haven't traded....usually no price is given. Once that coin trades or sells at auctions, that exact price or very close to it, tends to show up in the price guide. For later 20th century pop tops I have no clue. And no doubt for highly in-demand scarce US coins (like an 1839-0 half in choice XF/AU) the price guide may not be accurate. Sometimes they are low and sometimes high. Though for these kinds of coins they're usually on the lower side. Hence it's not unusual to see bidders at auction pay well over price guide...even multiples of it, especially for original coins with unmolested surfaces + great eye appeal. You can't "price guide" such coins.

Pcgs price guide has the 1857-0 half dollar priced at $22,000. Yet they've never graded one above MS64. It really should be blank. But I'd estimate a decent MS65 could be worth that much. How'd they come to that price? I have a guess. A sale of an NGC MS66 (pop 1 highest graded by 2 pts) a decade ago was approx $22K. That coin is now in an NGC MS65 holder and last time out fetched under $8K. A MS64 coin imo. So unless another NGC MS66 is out there (or a CAC'd NGC MS65) there is no way to get a price estimate for this coin ungraded in PCGS 65 or higher. I figure such a coin is worth $15K-$35K depending on low end to high end. A solid/ok MS65 B coin is probably in the $20's. It would take 2 bidders to find out.

jmlanzaf

@roadrunner said:
Generally, for 80% or more of routinely available US Coins, the price guide is 50% above wholesale trading levels. In other words, price guide is 60-70% of retail.

If 50% of above wholesale is 60-70% of retail, you are implying that wholesale on US coins is 40-46% of retail. That is not even close for most widgets except maybe the ultra-moderns or total junk. If you can buy Morgans at 50% of retail, you are either a crook or the luckiest SOB on the planet.

In my ever humble opinion.

roadrunner

@jmlanzaf said:

@roadrunner said:
Generally, for 80% or more of routinely available US Coins, the price guide is 50% above wholesale trading levels. In other words, price guide is 60-70% of retail.

If 50% of above wholesale is 60-70% of retail, you are implying that wholesale on US coins is 40-46% of retail. That is not even close for most widgets except maybe the ultra-moderns or total junk. If you can buy Morgans at 50% of retail, you are either a crook or the luckiest SOB on the planet.

In my ever humble opinion.

My original statement was that price guide is 50% above wholesale. Everything after that is rewash. What I meant was that buying at 66% of price guide (60-70%) is the norm 80% of the time. We can expand that to 75% to include generic, sight-unseen traded coins like MS65 Morgans which have tighter spreads. But buying at 66% of retail, and price guide being 50% above wholesale....are the same thing.

Let's review a $100 generic coin that trades between dealers at $100 wholesale.

Price guide will typically list this at $150 full retail. Dealer's will pay $100. The markup is 50% to the uninitiated buying over the counter. Dealer's usually pay around 66% of that max retail price.

Let's look at a MS65 1884-0 Morgan on price guide. Lists at $145. Heritage sells them for $122 on their fax sheet. Probably paying $105-$115 for quantities only. 72-79% of price guide. A little outside the my normal range of 60-70% because these are very popular generics, trading sight unseen, with nearly an ounce of silver. Generic slabbed gold doesn't work on big spreads either. Though an MS64 Morgan price guides for $82. Heritage sells them for $60. So with a typical $5 spread, they're paying $55....or 67% of price guide. That's what I mean.

How about something less generic without so much a precious metals factor? What about MS64/65/66 Walkers? Or a common date XF Barber or Seated half? For so-so non-bullionesque type coins the 60-70% range works pretty well.

Common date seated half WM XF - $155 price guide. I bought a slabbed PCGS XF40 1877 last year for $115 off GC (74% of price guide). Would probably have to take approx $105 to move it wholesale....64-68% of price guide.

jmlanzaf

@roadrunner

Gotcha. That was the oddest way of contending that the price guide is full retail.
.

Wabbit2313

oih82w8

I have encountered a lack of values a couple times with cherry-picked varieties, because I just put them into the books. What I have done in the past is compare the trend prices for "normal" coins and use a multiplier of given prices for the variety, and then use that multiplier for the next unknown price.

Let's take 1908 1C MPD FS-301 S-4 as an example;

Normal - Variety
MS63RB $85 - $600 (x 7.06 multiplier)
MS64RB $110 - $850 (x 7.23 multiplier)
MS65RB $210 - ??? (x 7 multiplier) ??? = $1470?

http://www.pcgscoinfacts.com/Coin/Detail/37622

...or something along these lines.

USMarine6

WHAT DO PCGS PRICES MEAN?
The prices listed in the PCGS Price Guide are average dealer asking prices for PCGS-graded coins. The prices are compiled from various sources including dealer ads in trade papers, dealer fixed price lists and website offerings, significant auctions, and activity at major coin shows. Dealer specialists and expert collectors provide pricing input. Remember that the prices are just a guide, a starting point for asserting value. Some PCGS coins sell for less than the prices listed and some PCGS coins sell for more than the prices listed.

USMarine6

Oops sorry didn't read your entire post

blitzdude

@USMarine6 said:
Oops sorry didn't read your entire post

Semper Fi Devil Dog! Active or retired? K-bay up in here.

BStrauss3

In many cases for thinly existing material the price guides are meaningless.

Take the rare three cent silver business strikes from 1863 to 1872.

For (IIRC) 1868 the survival estimate is 200 with 60 in mint state & thus is 140 non mint state.

Of those 140, the PCGS population is 18 AU, one XF Details and one Fine.

Yet there's a lovely straight progression of value from Po/AG all the way up. With a slight rise since 2005.

Based on WHAT?????