WSJ today-Scary Signals for silver’s continued decline going forward.

mariner67

I am just the messanger here.
Large outflows from silver ETFs signals longer term continued declines in silver.
I am not a web savy linker.....you can google it maybe if this link does not work.....

https://www.wsj.com/articles/sliding-silver-sends-scary-signal-1521986400?emailToken=0f09bb5aa18852a06a182741e495e2ebCrhK3PcDCFxHf9UZZR0AT6Eeh/FyafZDiWW2CUUsc0SluSq8TQJ8DvTiK7rV1lmBdI5BJ1qwxveb+yjYKv5zGw==

hchcoin

Interesting article. Normally I see people saying a high gold to silver ratio means silver is a good buy because it is cheap relative to the normal range for the ratio.

roadrunner

Some illogical conclusions by that writer. A high GSR means a lower GSR is potentially much closer...and a good thing for silver holders. The last 3 times silver was at 80....2003, 2008, and early 2016, it dropped like a rock within 2-3 months....and PM's rallied. That would be a more logical conclusion than PMs are headed down hard. For that to happen, GSR probably has to rally from here to 85-90...or higher. And the USDollar has to turn around and rally with it.

A high GSR like we have now tends to be indicative of liquidity issues in most markets. But a high GSR often leads to a much lower one, especially when stretched above 80. But as always, anything can happen.

Another plus for silver is that the silver Commitment of Traders (COT) is about the most lopsided it has been in 18 yrs. The commercials are essentially flat on silver future's contracts...almost unheard of for them. If you place any weight on that, then silver is in the best position seen since the 2011 rally. But undoubtedly a recession-like period similar to 2000-2003 could be good for gold and bad for silver.

For us cycle counters, Silver's monthly cycle count since the early 2011 peak has an excellent Fib series in play. Probably more than a coincidence that it's bottom in late 2015 came after 55/56 months...with the earlier Fibs all hitting on key peaks/troughs/transitions. Something to watch as month 89 comes due in late Sept/Oct 2018. Gold's Fib count was even better into the 2015 low. It was dead on perfect except for ending early at 50/51 months. And Sept/Oct 2018 is the same time frame where gold's 21 month cycle (working nicely since the 1999 peak) comes due for a peak/trough. So far, I'd lean towards a fall peak...for both metals.

Bochiman

Of course it's going lower...I just bought a 2018 SAE Roll last week.
Just like I sold a few ounces of gold and it has since increased $50+ since.

Timbuk3

Yes, very interesting article !!!

jmski52

If ETF outflows have been greater, and the gsr is higher - that indicates to me a nice gain when the turnaround does occur. They discount the potential of silver as a monetary hard asset, but do acknowledge that it is indeed a hybrid asset. Not knowing whether or not any of the supply fundamentals have changed, a possible decline in industrial demand in response to a possible economic slowdown - is only part of the story.

I recently looked to see that my portfolio’s silver % has declined way past my target of 25% in spite of making a buy last year, so that only tells me that I need to continue with another purchase along the lines of Baley’s Portfolio rebalancing program, which is really the optimal approach within the parameters of my own strategy.

By the way, where IS Baley? Is he hunkered down in some remote mountain refuge waiting for the salmon to start jumping, or what?

ricko

Well... I tend to listen to roadrunner... so, a good time to buy is soon.... and hold until a rally in fall.... Well... I will likely hold beyond that, I tend to stack, and have done since gold was around $300...

OPA

Sounds like a "heads I win, tails you loose" scenario. I prefer to listen to the advise given by cohodk, instead of self taught "experts."

blitzdude

Well the main stream media says to sell me silver, guess it's time I better start accumulating more. Large outflows of paper silver, my oh my. Time to head for the bunker. lol

OPA

How did the WSJ do with their prediction from 3/18?

Silver 3/18....around $16.50
10/31.....around $14.35

In my book: "Right on."

jmski52

Current GSR at this moment = 85.17. Seems like what roadrunner said is accurate. I hope he's still tracking these threads.

OPA

@jmski52 said:
Current GSR at this moment = 85.17. Seems like what roadrunner said is accurate. I hope he's still tracking these threads.

Really? I'm waiting & looking for that fall peak that he indicated to materialize. I suspect it's been post market to 2019
"So far, I'd lean towards a fall peak...for both metals." (rr 3/26/18)

jmski52

Frankly, I don't know what to expect. But, fall is only halfway through, eh?

Baley

Happy Halloween everyone!
Hope things aren't Too Scary!

TwoSides2aCoin

Happy Thanksgiving, early, Pilgrim !