What if one of Lincoln’s predecessors had faced the Civil War?
BillJones
Posts: 34,272 ✭✭✭✭✭
This post is about historical speculation, not coins or tokens.
Abraham Lincoln was the 16th president of The United States. Most historians rate him as a great president, if not the greatest president because he restored the Union and ended slavery. Last night I was thinking about what it would have been like if each of his 15 predecessors had been office when the southern states seceded from the Union and formed they Confederacy. How would each of them reacted? How successful might they have been had they tried to reunite the country?
Such “what ifs” are always based on speculation and are nothing but mental parlor games. It is really dangerous to hang your hat on them because there are so many historical variables. Still just for fun I’ll give it a try using some broad categories.
Presidential reactions to secession -
**“Go ahead and leave the Union! It’s okay with me!
**
John Tyler – Tyler was the only former president who took up the Confederacy. He had seat in the Confederate Congress before he died.
Franklin Pierce – Pierce took a decided pro Dixie slant while he was president. He looked for ways to expand slave territory, which included a proposed purchase or annexation of Cuba.
James Buchanan – Buchanan was the second president in a row after Pierce who came from a northern state (Pennsylvania) who had southern sympathies. When the Southern states started to seceded, he stated that it was probably illegal, but he didn’t think he had any authority to stop them.
**“I’ll fight you to preserve the Union!”
**
Andrew Jackson – Jackson fought the nullification movement while he was president and was ready to send troops into South Carolina when they made noises about the leaving the Union. Of all the pre-Lincoln presidents he was most likely one who could have succeeded in doing what Lincoln did.
James K. Polk – Polk was strong and determined president who made promises and kept them. His greatest flaw was that he could not delegate authority to those who reported to him. He did everything himself and worked himself to death in the process. He died three months after leaving. Under the pressures of a Civil War, he might have died sooner.
Both Polk and Jackson would have had Winfield Scott available to them to have fought a civil war. It’s speculation, but if Scott had been 20 years younger and 50 to 100 pounds lighter at the time of the Civil War, it might have ended sooner.
**“Strong wills, buy a lack of people skills to rally support behind them.”
**
John Adams and his son John Quincy Adams. Both the father and son were intellectually gifted, but they were not “people persons.” I doubt that they could have rallied enough support to fight a successful Civil War.
**“Slave holders who would have had a hard time opposing their peers”
**
Thomas Jefferson, James Madison and James Monroe - All three of these founding fathers were slaveholders. They showed no particular interest in ending the practice, and Madison in particular was not a strong wartime president.”
George Washington also falls into that category, but at the time of his death he sought to make arrangements to emancipate the slaves he owned. Washington was a strong leader who had the respect of a great many Americans. He showed his resolve to preserve the Union when he put down the Whisky Rebellion, but it’s hard to gauge how he would have made out in a much wider civil war.
Zachary Taylor – Taylor was also a slave holder and a successful military man. It is hard to say if he could have rallied support for a general insurrection. Some historian claim that the Civil War might not have occurred if he had not died soon after taking office, but I think that is a long stretch.
**“Would have favored preserving the Union but would not have had the mojo to get it done.”
**
Martin Van Buren – Van Buren was a master politician who knew how to thrive within the system. He was not an energetic public figure who believed in strong government policies. During the Panic of 1837 he let things slide believing that the problems would fix themselves.
Millard Filmore – Filmore became president after the death of Zachary Taylor. My view of him is that he tried the fix the nation’s problems with the Compromise of 1850 but didn’t have tools available to get the job done. Filmore could not have ended slavery which was the root cause of the Civil War. He also did not have the political clout to rally the country during a civil war.
**“Indeterminate”
**
William Henry Harrison died after only a month in office. As such it is impossible to determine what sort of president he might have been. He was a successful military leader, but at times he took risked that might have wrecked his reputation. Fortunately he had some luck on his side during his battles with Native Americans.
Comments
Half the nation is wondering “what if”.
I think our existence (as United goes) borders on looking back at the past and deciding which way we are not going into the future; except to say, most of us are corporate slaves now.
You had to be pro-union and antislavery to get the Republican nomination that year. The pro-slavery democratic and "independent" candidates that year did poorly mainly because the electoral college strongly favored the industrial north. Most of the "what if's" would have done poorly as well because of their states rights or slavery stances.
I would probably need a passport to travel south of the Mason-Dixon line rather than drive through Maryland in 15 minutes into Virginia non-stop on Interstate 81.
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/gold/liberty-head-2-1-gold-major-sets/liberty-head-2-1-gold-basic-set-circulation-strikes-1840-1907-cac/alltimeset/268163
Someone else would be on the cent.
Seriously, though, there's lots of historical fiction out there about what would happen if the slavery question came to pass before it actually did. Results included slavery continued longer in a unified US, slavery abolished earlier, slavery continued in a permanent Confederate States of America (after they won the war and the North sued for peace), and (after a stalemate in the first civil war) the US fought a protracted series of civil wars over several generations... anything's possible.
Even something like this:
Keeper of the VAM Catalog • Professional Coin Imaging • Prime Number Set • World Coins in Early America • British Trade Dollars • Variety Attribution
I had not seen anything about the James Poke Vampire Hunter film. Was it a prequel to the Abe Lincoln Vampire Hunter saga?
Prequel to the trilogy of the origin story.
Collector, occasional seller
I'm sure that there are probably some Mexicans, if they have studied history, who think that Polk was a vampire ... or if not an vampire, at least an empire builder.
Here are some campaign tokens and medalets for the presidents I mentioned.
DeWitt attributed the Washington Success Tokens to his 1792 re-election, but many people say that these pieces were struck much later.
There are no true campaign tokens from Washington 1789 to Monroe 1820. Jefferson did have an inaugural medal, which was designed and executed by John Reich. I wish I had bought this one when I had the chance.
M
Andrew Jackson was first to issue campaign pieces in 1824.
There are no John Quincy Adams medalets with his picture on them other than an inagurual medal. Here is a piece from the 1828 campaign. As you might have guess this rather boring looking item is rare.
Martin Van Buren, probably from the 1836 campaign.
William Henry Harrison 1840
There is almost nothing for John Tyler. No party would support him after he abandoned the Demorcrats in 1840 and betrayed the Whigs during his presidency.
James K. Polk, All Polk pieces are very scarce to rare.
Zachary Taylor, 1848
Millard Filmore. This piece is from 1856 when he ran on the American or "Know-Nothing" Party ticket. Fimore was elected vice president with Zachary Taylor and became president when Taylor died.
Franklin Pierce, 1852. Frank's supporters made him out to be a military hero. He did serve in the Mexican War, but spent most of the throwing up or nursing a sore groin after he jammed his saddle horn into his gut.
James Buchanan. Buchanan had the best resumé of anyone who ever ran for president. He had been a member of the House of Representatives, a Senator, secretary of state and an ambassador. Unfortunately holding lots of important positions did not make him into a statesman. Therefore the “demand” for his election to the White House was not filled well.
Jackson would have likely been the best at quashing the rebellion, but his record on civil rights leads me to believe he would have only cared about keeping the union together "on paper" and would not have cared about the rights of enslaved people either at that point or for subsequent generations.
Don't forget the influence of Congress: Henry Clay "The great Compromiser". If he lived until 1861, he might have saved the Union for a time, although he then be known as the "Great Appeaser".
The blame has largely been placed at Buchanan's feet by historians from what I have seen. Also Lincoln is overrated, many counterfactual books have been written, let the south go its way and we would have avoided the bloodiest war in US history, more research showed over 700k dead: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/03/science/civil-war-toll-up-by-20-percent-in-new-estimate.html My 2c, you can't turn back the clock and time machines violate all the rules of physics.
Some interesting stories on Lincoln's wood splitting prowess: http://www.knowol.com/knowledge/lesson-lincoln-young-rail-splitter/ https://www.thoughtco.com/abe-lincoln-and-his-ax-reality-behind-the-legend-1773585
Great post Billjones! I appreciate the time ad effort you put into it. Great Job!
As far a what ifs, I really couldn't venture a comment except to say "you really had to be there" at the time to understand it all.
The mood of the Country no doubt had a lot to do with how politicians shaped their public views.
Pete
Here's an interesting US history question from the same era; who was offered the vice presidency twice by two different candidates, refused and would have become President in both cases had he joined the ticket due to untimely demises?
Lincoln didn't care about slavery when elected. He just focused on preserving the Union at all costs. He could take or leave the slavery issue. He was neither pro or anti slavery. Only when it made political sense to abolish slavery did he get on board. Thanks to Lincoln we have the CC mint in Carson City, Nevada. Nevada became a state in Oct of 1864 only because Nevada had great mineral wealth that could help pay for the War. Nevada did not have the necessary population to become a state. So, thanks to our gold and silver, we became a state way, way earlier that we should have.
Thanks be to ABE LINCOLN!!
bob
My CC
photo by todd
That would've been Daniel Webster... passed over for Tyler as Harrison's running mate in 1840 (Tyler became President after Harrison died 41 days into office), and turned down VP on the 1848 Whig ticket giving VP Fillmore the Presidency when Taylor died in 1850. Choices, choices. He served in the US House, Senate and as SecState multiple times, but is apparently now most famous for sharing a name with a dictionary he had nothing to do with.
Bingo! But he is on some of the US currency.
Taylor dying in 1850 was the one exception to the rule that all presidents who've died in office (so far) were elected consecutively on years divisible by 20 from 1840-1960.
The infamous curse of Tecumsah.
These pieces are all very cool, @BillJones... often thought about starting a collection of political memorabilia. I particularly like the Taylor piece.
Andrew Jackson did face a civil war. He nipped it in the bud. Something about personally going down to South Carolina and hanging a few people. The rebels feared him. With good reason. Moot point now. He's being erased. Soon to be replaced by Harriet T-u-b-m-a-n. What would she have done?
Most major historical events are heavily contingent upon what came before. So any "alternative history" of slavery and its abolition would have created a cascade of "butterfly effects" that would have wrought major changes to the history of the U.S. and the world from the later 19th century onward. Life today might be much better or much worse, depending on historical changes that would have been generated by a different resolution of the slavery issue.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
That particular variety, which is listed in DeWitt / Sullivan as ZT 1848-21, is the most common Taylor variety. Here are a couple of others. This one used an agricutrual theme and a plea for national unity. The slavery problem was a big issue by this time. This one is listed as ZT 1848-17
This one looks nice, but it's a restrike that was made circa 1860 for collectors. The original pieces were made of white metal.
The original pieces, when you can find them at all, look like this when they are fairly choice. White metal was not made to last for 170 years.
The one above this post is real neat.
"I ask no favors, I shrink from no responsibility".
Pete
History is replete with 'what if's'.... a favorite game of many with no resolution. History has been, and is presently being rewritten by those apologists and others of limited mentality. All human history is filled with good and bad.... sometimes we learned from out mistakes, often we insist on repeating them. My belief is to live in the present, learn from the past and construct a future for the betterment of humanity. Cheers, RickO