inflated census numbers from resubmissions
Gazes
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What series, date and grade do you think suffers from serious inflated PCGS census numbers due to resubmissions?
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Another way to see this question is “what series has the highest percentage coins in rattlers and OGHs?” Folks did re-submit many in the first ten slab years. Nonetheless, if coins are still in their rattlers and OGHs, they did not get re-submitted (at least their grades did not get changed) in the last 20 years.
I ended up to collect my latest series because about 1/4-1/3 coins are still in OGHs.
Series? No idea.
Date? No idea.
Grade? That one’s easy. Look at the price jump. Where there is incentive to make real money via arbitrage people will be trying it.
A member here years ago resubmitted a 53-S Franklin over 20 times to get the FBL and finally got it. That alone tells me the coin was NOT FBL.
I have a 1883-O MS66 DMPL that had a population of only 17 with none higher when I bought it from Heritage on 1/6/16. The same coin now has a population of 22 with still none higher adding 5 more 66 DMPL's in only 2 years. The re-submission game trying for the higher grade really falsifies the pop reports, sometimes making your coin go down in value. I have often wondered how many PCGS graded MS66 DMPL's1883-O's are actually out there?
The census numbers are less accurate than grading opinions, since they are based on a history of submissions with no tracking controls. Cheers, RickO
My guess is the silver dollar census is "off" the most. We
do our part to help though, as last year I gave almost 1K labels from the top two services to dealers so they could turn them in.
I think pops have jumped more from gradeflation than due to resubmissions. There are no more "better date, scarce" Liberty Nickles in MS 66. I haven't bothered to look at pops in several years, when the pop of the 12 D in this grade became higher than that of the 12 P. Dale Friend's 1896 in MS 66 was a pop 4 when he bought it in 2004. It's probably north of a pop 20 now.
Don't look at pops. Look at prices. And don't just look at prices. Look at the coins as well. Connect the dots and you'll see what's going on with the particular series in the particular grade.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
The coin I remember was a 1918-D or S MS-64 Buffalo that was sent in multiple times to try to get a 65. The coin was submitted so many times that it started to become familiar with the graders.
A lot of Buffs get sent in to try to get the "magic" VF-20 grade because of the huge jump in price from F-15 to VF.
Pete
Nearly all authentication/grading quantities are badly distorted and can only be used as very rough indicators of either populations or scarcity. PS: None of the TPGs produce a true "census." They merely report a "population" of coins accepted for certification.
Honestly, couldn't those 22 actually be like 5 real ones, all submitted multiple times? Just saying...
The only population you can be sure of is a pop 1. Even a pop 2 could be one coin submitted twice. And if it is pop 2 with 1 higher, all 3 could be the same coin.
The numbers might be a little better if TPGs reported ALL authentic pieces submitted, not simply those that were 'graded' and stuck in slabs.
I've heard there are several Lincoln dates where someone is sitting on a handful to keep the price down while they buy a few and then they will turn the inserts in. Frankly I've been a bit concerned about the 1859 MS66+ in 18. It went from like 5 to 18 in a month or two, but it has hung there for six months. Highly suspect IMO
That is the thing, you just do not know.
I would say it is safe to assume there are coins in each series that have inflated census because of the crack game.