We want our stuff to go up in value while the other guys stuff doesn't.
I don't believe that we have witnessed sub 2% annual inflation anytime beyond the early 1960's. Perhaps the new fed chief will be a bit more honest about the numbers than Yellen was.
Presidents have no bearing on stock market performance. Economic performance, or lack of, determines asset performance. The money masters do not include the president, he's one of their many mouth pieces.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@Coinstartled said:
We want our stuff to go up in value while the other guys stuff doesn't.
I don't believe that we have witnessed sub 2% annual inflation anytime beyond the early 1960's. Perhaps the new fed chief will be a bit more honest about the numbers than Yellen was.
I should have stated CPI inflation >2%. CPI inflation rate has averaged 1.7% for the past 9 years. bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator
@derryb said:
Presidents have no bearing on stock market performance. Economic performance, or lack of, determines asset performance. The money masters do not include the president, he's one of their many mouth pieces.
Trump appointed the new fed chief. That is a factor. Tax cut (which I am ambivalent about) was a huge factor. Eliminating (or creating for that matter) obstacles to economic success are a huge factor. Instilling consumer confidence is a factor.
Having said that, interest rates will determine the market performance going forward and they are not likely to decline.
@derryb said:
Presidents have no bearing on stock market performance. Economic performance, or lack of, determines asset performance. The money masters do not include the president, he's one of their many mouth pieces.
Trump appointed the new fed chief. That is a factor. Tax cut (which I am ambivalent about) was a huge factor. Eliminating (or creating for that matter) obstacles to economic success are a huge factor. Instilling consumer confidence is a factor.
Having said that, interest rates will determine the market performance going forward and they are not likely to decline.
I’m thankful that his tax cut directly added 789 million to Amazons recently quarterly earnings. It’s literally the only thing I’ve been thankful for the past 12 months
mark
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
@derryb said:
Presidents have no bearing on stock market performance. Economic performance, or lack of, determines asset performance. The money masters do not include the president, he's one of their many mouth pieces.
Trump appointed the new fed chief. That is a factor. Tax cut (which I am ambivalent about) was a huge factor. Eliminating (or creating for that matter) obstacles to economic success are a huge factor. Instilling consumer confidence is a factor.
Having said that, interest rates will determine the market performance going forward and they are not likely to decline.
Banksters appoint those who control monetary policy, look at their backgrounds. Tax cuts throw money to the sheep at the expense of funding a run away budget; that chicken will come home to roost. Interest rates will determine market performance, but once the FED has reloaded the higher rate magazine they will be reduced once again in the upcoming recession. FED only wants higher rates to give itself the next "lower rates" tool. It spent its lower rates option in the last crisis.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Shaving about 30% off the major averages late January highs would put them in the right ballpark. We haven't even had a 10% correction yet although that might change in a few hours.
@PaleElf said:
Hoping it keeps coming down. Went to 60% cash in my non-taxable accounts Monday morning (1/29). Would like to see a nice healthy 5-10% pullback.
All is well, we just need to print more toilet paper to pay for existing and future debts. Doesn't matter if the deficit increases or rates go up as long as we got ink and paper. May have to run those presses for 3 shifts instead of 2. :Roll
@MsMorrisine said:
the toilet paper they will print will be more bonds, bills and notes. until the market becomes saturated, or buyers revolt, it will continue.
It will continue for a long, long time. Longer than all but the youngest among will live.
Social Security/Medicare/Medicaid are a real armageddon for America and many of us will live to see it.
I'm just amazed that people are surprised it's tanking. It was a classic pump and dump led by the Russian bankruptcy queen himself. Smart money cashed out their portfolios the day corporate welfare 9.0 was passed.
Today's drop brings the DOW back to where it was at this past Thanksgiving. Lots more room before bargains become available.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
@grote15 said:
Today's drop brings the DOW back to where it was at this past Thanksgiving. Lots more room before bargains become available.
Thinking back 30 years to 1987, the markets seem incapable of having an orderly decline. So called corrections that used to take a few months now occur in three days. Crashes that happened twice a century now come along each decade.
@grote15 said:
Today's drop brings the DOW back to where it was at this past Thanksgiving. Lots more room before bargains become available.
Thinking back 30 years to 1987, the markets seem incapable of having an orderly decline. So called corrections that used to take a few months now occur in three days. Crashes that happened twice a century now come along each decade.
We've seen this saga play out before....slow steady rise followed by steep, sharp decline. Panic functions like a snowball rolling downhill.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
bond yields are indicating inflation. Assume the crash position.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@derryb said:
bond yields are indicating inflation. Assume the crash position.
Bond yields are indicating bubkis at under 3% on the ten year. Trillion dollar budget deficit (particularly in a time of economic health) is indicating inflation.
When the ten year hits 6 or 7% it will properly reflect the already robust inflation rate.
@derryb said:
bond yields are indicating inflation. Assume the crash position.
For those on main street that means bend over, the 1% are about to make merica great again lulz
Main Street gets hit because most retail investors invest on emotion. Don’t panic. Invest for the long term. Always keep emergency cash, so you are never forced to sell. If you are still in the accumulation phase of your life, all you should see is a sale.
@derryb said:
bond yields are indicating inflation. Assume the crash position.
For those on main street that means bend over, the 1% are about to make merica great again lulz
Main Street gets hit because most retail investors invest on emotion. Don’t panic. Invest for the long term. Always keep emergency cash, so you are never forced to sell. If you are still in the accumulation phase of your life, all you should see is a sale.
Easy to say for those that have not studied economic history. Markets have been a one way ride up since the early 1980's. Easy for the short sighted to see every dip as a buying opportunity. To assume that a price that was available three months ago is a sale price is ridiculous.
Over the last couple of years I have seen little discussion of value--true value. Amazon is a buy at any price because Bezos is a genius and the stock always goes higher. What about the PE of 300 or the 100 plus cash flow to stock price ratio?
Bring those up and you are a dinosaur or a nervous Nelly. When markets head South though, those factors become immensely important.
@derryb said:
bond yields are indicating inflation. Assume the crash position.
For those on main street that means bend over, the 1% are about to make merica great again lulz
Main Street gets hit because most retail investors invest on emotion. Don’t panic. Invest for the long term. Always keep emergency cash, so you are never forced to sell. If you are still in the accumulation phase of your life, all you should see is a sale.
Easy to say for those that have not studied economic history. Markets have been a one way ride up since the early 1980's. Easy for the short sighted to see every dip as a buying opportunity. To assume that a price that was available three months ago is a sale price is ridiculous.
Over the last couple of years I have seen little discussion of value--true value. Amazon is a buy at any price because Bezos is a genius and the stock always goes higher. What about the PE of 300 or the 100 plus cash flow to stock price ratio?
Bring those up and you are a dinosaur or a nervous Nelly. When markets head South though, those factors become immensely important.
If you are worried about individual stock PEs, stick with index funds or stay clear of the high fliers. Every 1,000 point drop gets us much closer to historical norms and one day we will eventually drop below historical norms. I will dollar cost average all the way down and all the way up. If you think it is all down, down, down, and will never come back up, then you should pull your money out and sit on the sidelines. I hope it keeps falling. I still have 30+ years of accumulating left. With every 1,000 point drop, I am buying future retirement income at cheaper and cheaper prices. And at the end of the day... if the whole system implodes, those dollars you have on the sidelines won’t be worth very much anyways.
@derryb said:
bond yields are indicating inflation. Assume the crash position.
Bond yields are indicating bubkis at under 3% on the ten year. Trillion dollar budget deficit (particularly in a time of economic health) is indicating inflation.
When the ten year hits 6 or 7% it will properly reflect the already robust inflation rate.
Treasury yields are the financial market's risk free rate of return. Rising bond yields are repricing the risk in all other financial assets. This repricing of risk in equities (and many other popular investments) drove their prices down.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
There are mechanisms in place to prevent catastrophic declines in the equity markets and the accompanying economic depression. There are no mechanisms in place to prevent or contain bubbles in the equity markets.
As such it is a long term, one way ride as long as the USD holds up. I will likely live to see a $100 trillion national debt. GDP should be $40 trillion/year by then.
In a decade a $1 trillion annual budget deficit will look small.
@derryb said:
bond yields are indicating inflation. Assume the crash position.
For those on main street that means bend over, the 1% are about to make merica great again lulz
Main Street gets hit because most retail investors invest on emotion. Don’t panic. Invest for the long term. Always keep emergency cash, so you are never forced to sell. If you are still in the accumulation phase of your life, all you should see is a sale.
Easy to say for those that have not studied economic history. Markets have been a one way ride up since the early 1980's. Easy for the short sighted to see every dip as a buying opportunity. To assume that a price that was available three months ago is a sale price is ridiculous.
Over the last couple of years I have seen little discussion of value--true value. Amazon is a buy at any price because Bezos is a genius and the stock always goes higher. What about the PE of 300 or the 100 plus cash flow to stock price ratio?
Bring those up and you are a dinosaur or a nervous Nelly. When markets head South though, those factors become immensely important.
If you are worried about individual stock PEs, stick with index funds or stay clear of the high fliers. Every 1,000 point drop gets us much closer to historical norms and one day we will eventually drop below historical norms. I will dollar cost average all the way down and all the way up. If you think it is all down, down, down, and will never come back up, then you should pull your money out and sit on the sidelines. I hope it keeps falling. I still have 30+ years of accumulating left. With every 1,000 point drop, I am buying future retirement income at cheaper and cheaper prices. And at the end of the day... if the whole system implodes, those dollars you have on the sidelines won’t be worth very much anyways.
Well you are correct that every 1000 point drop gets us closer to the norm. That is a far cry from the statement that stocks are on sale. Was $1900 gold on sale when it dropped to $1700. Apparently not if you consider a sale to be a value.
Same with stocks. Japan Nikkei index hit 39,000 in the late 1980's when the Japanese economy could do no wrong. Thirty years later the index is at half of that high water mark.
It is easy to love a progressive upward market. Takes more dedication in an extensive and prolonged bear market, particularly when treasuries offer a 7 or 8% return.
Hope that you have the stomach for that. Many do not.
index funds will be the next mega disaster. I have this feeling of dread wondering what happens if joe sixpack panics and decides to liquidate their positions in index funds? Who is going to step up to buy if they all want out ?
I think I mentioned I was in the fidelity blue chip fund in my IRA . I decided to go to cash with 33% of that Friday. Hitting sell on that is not instant gratification its a multiday process . I was thinking about that , I bet there are a lot of people that think they can time that and get out right at the top , people that invested in funds a little at a time who never paid any attention to how long it takes to get out of a mutual fund because they entered a little at a time under no pressure.
hitting a sell button and waiting 3 to 5 days watching the news talking about the dow crashing might come as a surprise to many
@bronco2078 said:
index funds will be the next mega disaster. I have this feeling of dread wondering what happens if joe sixpack panics and decides to liquidate their positions in index funds? Who is going to step up to buy if they all want out ?
I think I mentioned I was in the fidelity blue chip fund in my IRA . I decided to go to cash with 33% of that Friday. Hitting sell on that is not instant gratification its a multiday process . I was thinking about that , I bet there are a lot of people that think they can time that and get out right at the top , people that invested in funds a little at a time who never paid any attention to how long it takes to get out of a mutual fund because they entered a little at a time under no pressure.
hitting a sell button and waiting 3 to 5 days watching the news talking about the dow crashing might come as a surprise to many
3-5 days? If I hit sell, it would execute at the market close that same day.
@cohodk said:
What is it that you are waiting for 3-5 days after hitting the sell button?
I mean unlike a stock where you hit a sell button for a market order you get an execution very quickly. The whole mutual fund only being priced at the end of the day thing. Then depending on the timing of it you might see a pending order for a while. then finally see it appear as cash 3 days later or in my case here swept into a money market. I'm wondering if a lot of people with mutual funds just think oh its priced at say 100 a share I will sell out . They might think they are going to be out at 100 5 minutes later like they are day trading.
ETFs trade instantaneously. Pick and ETF that matches the holdings of the mutual fund. ETFs are the "new" mutual fund.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Comments
We want our stuff to go up in value while the other guys stuff doesn't.
I don't believe that we have witnessed sub 2% annual inflation anytime beyond the early 1960's. Perhaps the new fed chief will be a bit more honest about the numbers than Yellen was.
Presidents have no bearing on stock market performance. Economic performance, or lack of, determines asset performance. The money masters do not include the president, he's one of their many mouth pieces.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I should have stated CPI inflation >2%. CPI inflation rate has averaged 1.7% for the past 9 years. bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator
Trump appointed the new fed chief. That is a factor. Tax cut (which I am ambivalent about) was a huge factor. Eliminating (or creating for that matter) obstacles to economic success are a huge factor. Instilling consumer confidence is a factor.
Having said that, interest rates will determine the market performance going forward and they are not likely to decline.
I’m thankful that his tax cut directly added 789 million to Amazons recently quarterly earnings. It’s literally the only thing I’ve been thankful for the past 12 months
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
When Amazon hoses an unsuspecting town with the blessing of their new HQ, that should bolster the bottom line as well.
Banksters appoint those who control monetary policy, look at their backgrounds. Tax cuts throw money to the sheep at the expense of funding a run away budget; that chicken will come home to roost. Interest rates will determine market performance, but once the FED has reloaded the higher rate magazine they will be reduced once again in the upcoming recession. FED only wants higher rates to give itself the next "lower rates" tool. It spent its lower rates option in the last crisis.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
It's not stock trading
But
Dow futures are down over 700 and are active now.
Good. Let it drop. 30 years out to retirement and looking for good deals
Paper lost if you decide to stay on and enjoy the ride.....
The market is a moving target
Down one hour down a lot more the next. Can't live with them, Can't live without them.
Shaving about 30% off the major averages late January highs would put them in the right ballpark. We haven't even had a 10% correction yet although that might change in a few hours.
Moved back to fully invested this morning.
if the boom was Obama economy does he own the down too? just saying
Best place to buy !
Bronze Associate member
Only if he tweets it.
Return to the trillion dollar deficit. That does not go well with low bond yields.
All is well, we just need to print more toilet paper to pay for existing and future debts. Doesn't matter if the deficit increases or rates go up as long as we got ink and paper. May have to run those presses for 3 shifts instead of 2. :Roll
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
the toilet paper they will print will be more bonds, bills and notes. until the market becomes saturated, or buyers revolt, it will continue.
It will continue for a long, long time. Longer than all but the youngest among will live.
Social Security/Medicare/Medicaid are a real armageddon for America and many of us will live to see it.
Aahhh.....CLCT down 33% today as of this moment.
Ouch!
From the media histrionics it seems that an upward moving stock market is now an entitlement.
The left media is really confused as they want to pin a soft market on the administration but are taking a hit on their own portfolios.
I'm just amazed that people are surprised it's tanking. It was a classic pump and dump led by the Russian bankruptcy queen himself. Smart money cashed out their portfolios the day corporate welfare 9.0 was passed.
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
what goes up must come down, the bubble will pop and the mad rush to buy safe havens like gold will begin
Today's drop brings the DOW back to where it was at this past Thanksgiving. Lots more room before bargains become available.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Panic is starting to set in. Look for the good buying opportunities ahead.
How soon before the NYT prints another graph?
I actually cashed out of my NYT position today and used the proceeds to buy more NVDA and GS at the close.
Thinking back 30 years to 1987, the markets seem incapable of having an orderly decline. So called corrections that used to take a few months now occur in three days. Crashes that happened twice a century now come along each decade.
We've seen this saga play out before....slow steady rise followed by steep, sharp decline. Panic functions like a snowball rolling downhill.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Money will go to cash or treasuries before gold
bond yields are indicating inflation. Assume the crash position.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
For those on main street that means bend over, the 1% are about to make merica great again lulz
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
I hope everyone keeps selling. Would love to significantly lower my cost basis in a few positions.
Bond yields are indicating bubkis at under 3% on the ten year. Trillion dollar budget deficit (particularly in a time of economic health) is indicating inflation.
When the ten year hits 6 or 7% it will properly reflect the already robust inflation rate.
Should be the case these next 3 years...
Main Street gets hit because most retail investors invest on emotion. Don’t panic. Invest for the long term. Always keep emergency cash, so you are never forced to sell. If you are still in the accumulation phase of your life, all you should see is a sale.
Easy to say for those that have not studied economic history. Markets have been a one way ride up since the early 1980's. Easy for the short sighted to see every dip as a buying opportunity. To assume that a price that was available three months ago is a sale price is ridiculous.
Over the last couple of years I have seen little discussion of value--true value. Amazon is a buy at any price because Bezos is a genius and the stock always goes higher. What about the PE of 300 or the 100 plus cash flow to stock price ratio?
Bring those up and you are a dinosaur or a nervous Nelly. When markets head South though, those factors become immensely important.
If you are worried about individual stock PEs, stick with index funds or stay clear of the high fliers. Every 1,000 point drop gets us much closer to historical norms and one day we will eventually drop below historical norms. I will dollar cost average all the way down and all the way up. If you think it is all down, down, down, and will never come back up, then you should pull your money out and sit on the sidelines. I hope it keeps falling. I still have 30+ years of accumulating left. With every 1,000 point drop, I am buying future retirement income at cheaper and cheaper prices. And at the end of the day... if the whole system implodes, those dollars you have on the sidelines won’t be worth very much anyways.
Treasury yields are the financial market's risk free rate of return. Rising bond yields are repricing the risk in all other financial assets. This repricing of risk in equities (and many other popular investments) drove their prices down.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
There are mechanisms in place to prevent catastrophic declines in the equity markets and the accompanying economic depression. There are no mechanisms in place to prevent or contain bubbles in the equity markets.
As such it is a long term, one way ride as long as the USD holds up. I will likely live to see a $100 trillion national debt. GDP should be $40 trillion/year by then.
In a decade a $1 trillion annual budget deficit will look small.
Well you are correct that every 1000 point drop gets us closer to the norm. That is a far cry from the statement that stocks are on sale. Was $1900 gold on sale when it dropped to $1700. Apparently not if you consider a sale to be a value.
Same with stocks. Japan Nikkei index hit 39,000 in the late 1980's when the Japanese economy could do no wrong. Thirty years later the index is at half of that high water mark.
It is easy to love a progressive upward market. Takes more dedication in an extensive and prolonged bear market, particularly when treasuries offer a 7 or 8% return.
Hope that you have the stomach for that. Many do not.
Holy active thread over here! Too bad it's a tank thread.
index funds will be the next mega disaster. I have this feeling of dread wondering what happens if joe sixpack panics and decides to liquidate their positions in index funds? Who is going to step up to buy if they all want out ?
I think I mentioned I was in the fidelity blue chip fund in my IRA . I decided to go to cash with 33% of that Friday. Hitting sell on that is not instant gratification its a multiday process . I was thinking about that , I bet there are a lot of people that think they can time that and get out right at the top , people that invested in funds a little at a time who never paid any attention to how long it takes to get out of a mutual fund because they entered a little at a time under no pressure.
hitting a sell button and waiting 3 to 5 days watching the news talking about the dow crashing might come as a surprise to many
What is it that you are waiting for 3-5 days after hitting the sell button?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
3-5 days? If I hit sell, it would execute at the market close that same day.
I mean unlike a stock where you hit a sell button for a market order you get an execution very quickly. The whole mutual fund only being priced at the end of the day thing. Then depending on the timing of it you might see a pending order for a while. then finally see it appear as cash 3 days later or in my case here swept into a money market. I'm wondering if a lot of people with mutual funds just think oh its priced at say 100 a share I will sell out . They might think they are going to be out at 100 5 minutes later like they are day trading.
Maybe it will.
So friday I got out but I think the settlement price was around 92 but I think it was 94 when I put the order in
ETFs trade instantaneously. Pick and ETF that matches the holdings of the mutual fund. ETFs are the "new" mutual fund.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
There still has to be a bid