Post F.U.N. Show market revelations.
keets
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While it is certainly nice to profit from what we collect the stark reality is that oftentimes breaking even is what the hopeful outcome will be at the point of sale. Given the nature of buy/sell spreads, even taking a small loss isn't really a bad thing if we are truly collecting and not investing or acting as a dealer. The current trend really highlights this and the way it might affect other collectors like me.
I did some post-auction viewing at Heritage to gain a perspective on where prices are for some coins I might sell. The picture isn't rosey. 
As is my typical slow, winter activity, I tend to inventory what I have vs. what I am in love with, what I have grown tired of vs. what still makes me smile and sigh, what I could lose and not care about vs. what would gall me to lose 1-2 points back of what I paid.
Thus far the thought I am ending with is that some stuff I'd like to sell and move on from will be buried at the bank for probably years to come. Other stuff has me encouraged that I have been heading in the right direction. Perhaps the best thing, a trend which started last summer and has continued unabated, is that certain Exonumia continue to be unavailable, anywhere and at any price. The sum total of all this is that since Thanksgiving I haven't bought anything of substance, maybe a few Proof Sets for a coin or two they contained. I have also submitted some stuff to PCGS/NGC and begun sorting for future submissions.
My boss and some of the other dealers have an expression they use when a show is slow, they refer to "Buying their way out" and I guess that's the approach I should consider. Prices seem low so it might be wise to buy what I can where it is smart and hold for the next upturn.
Al H.
Comments
We're like a band of baboons. If one gets tired of something, we all do.
have you ever seen footage of a monkey being captured by putting some food in a hole in a tree??
they select or make a hole large enough for a monkey to get his hand into but to small for him to pull his clenched fist out of, then hide a short distance away. the logic is that once the monkey reaches in and grabs the food he won't let it go, not even as his captors approach and he screams in terror!!!
we are like that sometimes.
Is waiting for the next upturn a wise move when the market is aging and the trend line is down for most material?
Yep.
Consider starting an "Everymonkey" set.
@291fifth ...Waiting for the next upturn depends on one's age....Not a good move for the very old, however, for younger collector/dealers, it holds potential. This is an issue for some, not for me. Cheers, RickO
I've been looking for the usual coin show robbery reports, which are inevitable. Maybe Orlando was worse in that regard?
I am a collector first and while you can not help to look at values, appreciation and down turns in values; the truth is I have been loosing a bunch of cash on any coin bought 5-10 years ago that is put up for sale when I get a replacement. It has made me more careful when buying now and glad some cherry picking is making up for lost values.
WS
This kind of comment shouldn't be permitted. Period. Something wrong with the person who would write that thought out AND post it.
Lighten up Francis.
Yeah Sarge, whatever you say.
For the time being, in broad terms, it's like the stock market in slow motion.
The only robbery I'm aware of was Heritage's buyer premiums.
Don't you lose more every day from the opportunity cost of redeploying that money into something that generates a return?
Latin American Collection
Concur! I completely stayed away from Heritage this time. I spent my money at GC last weekend instead!
ANA LM
USAF Retired — 34 years of active military service! 🇺🇸
Well, lets see, the DJIA advanced 25.1% in 2017 (following a 13.4% advance the year before); the big NASD index was up 28.2% in 2017 (following a 7.5% advance the year before); and the S&P 500 index was up 19.42% in 2017 (following a 9.5% advance the year before). Almost all of the individual stocks in these indexes can be bought and sold with a telephone call or a few keystrokes on a home computer. You can also buy financial products that track or closely mimic these indexes (or is it indices?) themselves. The transaction costs are usually low.
I know that hindsight is 20/20 , but yeah, numismatic coins are kinda like that (sarc).
FWIW, heck, I've benefited very little directly since the financial industry resurrection started many years ago under Reagan and Volcker. I'm super suspicious of financial paper. Numismatics teaches/shows us that most financial paper turns to total rot, eventually.
Don't you lose more every day from the opportunity cost of redeploying that money into something that generates a return?
this is why I tried to make note of "collecting" and "Investing or acting as a Dealer" in the OP. as a collector there is no need to sell, just a desire to get a fair return and move into something different.
That's a very strange comment, but you've been looking for opportunities to bash me for whatever reason.
The reason I mentioned it was because of numerous reports in the past of post FUN show robberies; and the point was that the occupational hazard of theft is very real and puts added stress on dealers to be aware of possible risks. Also to have dealers, etc. report thefts rather than be embarrassed is very helpful to warn others and track down stolen material. Maybe this time enough warnings were heeded.
That’s pretty much how my wife got me.
The market is alive and well, and thanks to the baptism of fire through ebay, I'm free to eat all the monkey _____ I want.
Practice makes perfect & nobody is perfect. So, practice being nobody and be perfect !
Bill, I disagree with you. Security is very important. The more we know the better off we'll be. A savvy dealer finds out what's going on and is prepared. Did you know that a bunch of dealers left the Baltimore show early due to crime?
PS You seem to have a lot of good knowledge to share here. I should hate one day to see a little Red Square on your posts rather than the cowboy.
I just laughed my ass off with this one.
Thank you for my huge laugh of the day
My view has been that the entire market has dipped for a period in excess of 2 years. I think widgets in slabs bear the bulk of the losses (just by sheer numbers) but the interest in circulated coins (encapsulated) are really losing steam. Coins in the $300+ range have to be put before just the right audience to sell and then sellers fees for those coins today are ankle grabbers.
A complete market correction across all lines might be upcoming because many Dealers still haven't gotten the memo.
Over all I think Great Collections is positioned pretty well, all things considered. E-Bay barely has a pulse anymore.
We'll see...