I don’t know much about 1979 but I looked at the population report and I just noticed the Paul Molitor has 819 submitted and ONLY 1 PSA 10.
Wouldn’t that be almost proportionally as rare as the Ozzie Smith?
But that is his 2nd year card. It is a tough low pop card so worth plenty if you land a 10, but not close to Ozzie.
I disagree. And I think that’s why we’re seeing such a decline with the value of the Ozzie as the pop increases.
A pop 1 card of a HOF player, from what appears to be such a condition sensitive year, when so many cards have been subbed for that card, carries some special value.
If it becomes a pop 2 then I’d think it’s value would certainly fall just as has happened for the Ozzie Smith as it’s pop has been gradually swelling.
For me the Molitor holds too much risk because of exactly what you said about the pop becoming a 2. Ozzie may have declined since the run up over a year ago, but so have a lot of cards. I am not one to invest in the card myself, however, so I am not saying buy an Ozzie RC for $30k+.
I don’t know much about 1979 but I looked at the population report and I just noticed the Paul Molitor has 819 submitted and ONLY 1 PSA 10.
Wouldn’t that be almost proportionally as rare as the Ozzie Smith?
But that is his 2nd year card. It is a tough low pop card so worth plenty if you land a 10, but not close to Ozzie.
I disagree. And I think that’s why we’re seeing such a decline with the value of the Ozzie as the pop increases.
A pop 1 card of a HOF player, from what appears to be such a condition sensitive year, when so many cards have been subbed for that card, carries some special value.
If it becomes a pop 2 then I’d think it’s value would certainly fall just as has happened for the Ozzie Smith as it’s pop has been gradually swelling.
For me the Molitor holds too much risk because of exactly what you said about the pop becoming a 2. Ozzie may have declined since the run up over a year ago, but so have a lot of cards. I am not one to invest in the card myself, however, so I am not saying buy an Ozzie RC for $30k+.
That is a good point. Guess it’s all part of the risk. On the one hand, having a pop 1 like that means that if it’s one kind of person you’ll actually never see it sold again. On the other hand when it the pop increases the value drops as the availability tends to increase.
There's actually such a thing as too rare. It probably doesn't exist in a regular issue Topps baseball release but in other avenues of the hobby having only a handful of copies known to exist can hamper a card's value. It can be perceived as too obscure and doesn't get the requisite attention needed to make most collectors even aware of its existence. I'm digressing, but to return to the main point, I don't think the Molitor becoming a pop 2 would hinder the card's value at all. At that level of rarity for such a card you're not losing enough potential buyers by simply increasing the pop by 1 to affect the value if it came to an open auction. Pop 1 or pop 2, it's still going to command top dollar by player or set registry collectors.
@ReggieCleveland said:
There's actually such a thing as too rare. It probably doesn't exist in a regular issue Topps baseball release but in other avenues of the hobby having only a handful of copies known to exist can hamper a card's value. It can be perceived as too obscure and doesn't get the requisite attention needed to make most collectors even aware of its existence. I'm digressing, but to return to the main point, I don't think the Molitor becoming a pop 2 would hinder the card's value at all. At that level of rarity for such a card you're not losing enough potential buyers by simply increasing the pop by 1 to affect the value if it came to an open auction. Pop 1 or pop 2, it's still going to command top dollar by player or set registry collectors.
I see what you mean about the Molitor. I guess I figure that something being a pop 1 just makes it more special than otherwise. I think PSA weighs a pop 1 additionally because of this?
As for the Ozzie, I’m curious how the value will continue to decrease as the population increased from 5 to 6, 7, 8, 9 and then eventually double digits.
With all the unopened still out there from the late 1970s I think it’s just a matter of time.
I remember George Brett rookies in PSA 9 grade selling for $600 several years ago~now, even with higher pops, that is a 2K+ card.
I think the low pop premium is more tenuously linked to common cards than HOF rookies, for which demand will always be there among collectors. In my view, we've seen a shift over the past several years from set building to HOF rookie and player collecting, which has impacted values for low pop commons in a negative way while prices for HOFers, even with higher pops, have remained strong. That said, we were also bound to see some regression from 2016 prices with a number of these cards (like the Ozzie RC) for which prices skyrocketed during that time.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
I agree, Tim. I think there might be natural ebbs and flows to grading pops -- low in the beginning with high prices, high as people submit and begin ripping unopened resulting in depressed prices, plateaus when unopened dries up and it slowly becomes evident that what's out there comptises nearly all of the cards available and prices increase as pops stabilize.
What were 1978 topps #400 Nolan Ryan psa 9s going for prior to there being a psa 10? I feel like they were in the $2000 range and now with only 2 10s go for well under 1000.
I agree,it should never be a fault to have longevity in the pros. It's not like Rickey got fat and was just a DH or something. One could also say his leadership ability and preparation was a great example for the young players.
Sorta on this topic, I noticed a PSA 9 Bob Gibson rookie sell for $12,700 last night on Ebay. I didn't see anything glaringly wrong with the card but that's a significant decline back to 2014-2015 prices.
We should be hearing from Criss Criss. Where has he been?
Interested in 60's and 70's psa and raw star and hof cards
@BobH said:
Sorta on this topic, I noticed a PSA 9 Bob Gibson rookie sell for $12,700 last night on Ebay. I didn't see anything glaringly wrong with the card but that's a significant decline back to 2014-2015 prices.
We should be hearing from Criss Criss. Where has he been?
That Gibson peaked in 2016 at $45K for a PSA 9 after being as low as $4,500 in 2011.
I don’t know what happened in 2016 but it almost seems like some people got into the hobby then, blew things up and then bailed out.
@BobH said:
Sorta on this topic, I noticed a PSA 9 Bob Gibson rookie sell for $12,700 last night on Ebay. I didn't see anything glaringly wrong with the card but that's a significant decline back to 2014-2015 prices.
We should be hearing from Criss Criss. Where has he been?
That Gibson peaked in 2016 at $45K for a PSA 9 after being as low as $4,500 in 2011.
I don’t know what happened in 2016 but it almost seems like some people got into the hobby then, blew things up and then bailed out.
for those not around in the early 80's. Henderson began to establish himself as an icon.
Collecting PSA 9's from 1970-1977. Raw 9's from 72-77. Raw 10's from '78-'83. Collecting Unopened from '72-'83; mostly BBCE certified boxes/cases/racks. Prefer to buy in bulk.
An Ozzie PSA 10 (same PSA cert) that sold for $38,976 on 5/6/17 via Memory Lane was just sold via Heritage for $31,200.
An $8K loss in 6 months.
Ouch!
This is actually the same Ozzie that was part of the Demitri Young Collection that sold on 5/20/12 via SCP Auctions for $19,557.20.
Just 2 years earlier the card (different cert) had sold for almost 1/3 the price. I wouldn’t be surprised that in a couple of years we see the value of this card (and many other overpriced late 1970s & 1980s cards) fall considerably as the trend is certainly in that direction.
I guess my question is, given the large amount of unopened still available from these years, what are people thinking? Especially buying and selling something so frequently for such a considerable loss!
I just looked it up, it's a pop 5. There's absolutely no way to form any kind of reliable pattern on something that rare. All it takes is one buyer to either enter or exit the market at the time the next one comes up for sale and you have a plus/minus difference of $20,000. Imagine if two enter or leave? And that's a temporary situation. Each time it comes up is a brand new equation. One might not come up for sale for another 5 years.
@ReggieCleveland said:
I just looked it up, it's a pop 5. There's absolutely no way to form any kind of reliable pattern on something that rare. All it takes is one buyer to either enter or exit the market at the time the next one comes up for sale and you have a plus/minus difference of $20,000. Imagine if two enter or leave? And that's a temporary situation. Each time it comes up is a brand new equation. One might not come up for sale for another 5 years.
I can't believe we got to page 4 on this.
I can’t either LOL
As for sales patterns, well everything had been plummeting lately from the 1970s (especially late). Did you see that recent Aaron 1971 PSA 9 that sold for an enormous loss?
For the late 1970s you have the 1978 Murray that’s going for 2/3 what it sold a year ago. The Molitor has also similarly peaked from 1978 as both their pops have gone up. The 1979 Ryan has also peaked.
There’s no doubt the Ozzie population will continue to increase and no reason to think it won’t continue to lose value, as so many others have, from a time period where there is still so much unopened available.
I mean even from times when there isn’t unopened available those card values are dropping.
2015-2016 was certainly the time to be a seller!
Whether you believe it or not there aren’t actually that many buyers willing to spend 5 figures on a piece of cardboard from 1979. As the pops increase it just becomes that much harder for any seller to get what they used to be able to get.
I think everyone saw this coming when people were talking about unopened drying up only to see it still readily available for late 1970s.
Comments
For me the Molitor holds too much risk because of exactly what you said about the pop becoming a 2. Ozzie may have declined since the run up over a year ago, but so have a lot of cards. I am not one to invest in the card myself, however, so I am not saying buy an Ozzie RC for $30k+.
That is a good point. Guess it’s all part of the risk. On the one hand, having a pop 1 like that means that if it’s one kind of person you’ll actually never see it sold again. On the other hand when it the pop increases the value drops as the availability tends to increase.
There's actually such a thing as too rare. It probably doesn't exist in a regular issue Topps baseball release but in other avenues of the hobby having only a handful of copies known to exist can hamper a card's value. It can be perceived as too obscure and doesn't get the requisite attention needed to make most collectors even aware of its existence. I'm digressing, but to return to the main point, I don't think the Molitor becoming a pop 2 would hinder the card's value at all. At that level of rarity for such a card you're not losing enough potential buyers by simply increasing the pop by 1 to affect the value if it came to an open auction. Pop 1 or pop 2, it's still going to command top dollar by player or set registry collectors.
I see what you mean about the Molitor. I guess I figure that something being a pop 1 just makes it more special than otherwise. I think PSA weighs a pop 1 additionally because of this?
As for the Ozzie, I’m curious how the value will continue to decrease as the population increased from 5 to 6, 7, 8, 9 and then eventually double digits.
With all the unopened still out there from the late 1970s I think it’s just a matter of time.
I remember George Brett rookies in PSA 9 grade selling for $600 several years ago~now, even with higher pops, that is a 2K+ card.
I think the low pop premium is more tenuously linked to common cards than HOF rookies, for which demand will always be there among collectors. In my view, we've seen a shift over the past several years from set building to HOF rookie and player collecting, which has impacted values for low pop commons in a negative way while prices for HOFers, even with higher pops, have remained strong. That said, we were also bound to see some regression from 2016 prices with a number of these cards (like the Ozzie RC) for which prices skyrocketed during that time.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
I agree, Tim. I think there might be natural ebbs and flows to grading pops -- low in the beginning with high prices, high as people submit and begin ripping unopened resulting in depressed prices, plateaus when unopened dries up and it slowly becomes evident that what's out there comptises nearly all of the cards available and prices increase as pops stabilize.
What were 1978 topps #400 Nolan Ryan psa 9s going for prior to there being a psa 10? I feel like they were in the $2000 range and now with only 2 10s go for well under 1000.
IMHO it's crazy to fault someone for playing to long! One of the reason Rickey is an All time great was his durability, and it has to factor in.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
I agree,it should never be a fault to have longevity in the pros. It's not like Rickey got fat and was just a DH or something. One could also say his leadership ability and preparation was a great example for the young players.
Sorta on this topic, I noticed a PSA 9 Bob Gibson rookie sell for $12,700 last night on Ebay. I didn't see anything glaringly wrong with the card but that's a significant decline back to 2014-2015 prices.
We should be hearing from Criss Criss. Where has he been?
That Gibson peaked in 2016 at $45K for a PSA 9 after being as low as $4,500 in 2011.
I don’t know what happened in 2016 but it almost seems like some people got into the hobby then, blew things up and then bailed out.
Was a great time to sell that's for sure
for those not around in the early 80's. Henderson began to establish himself as an icon.
Collecting Unopened from '72-'83; mostly BBCE certified boxes/cases/racks.
Prefer to buy in bulk.
An Ozzie PSA 10 (same PSA cert) that sold for $38,976 on 5/6/17 via Memory Lane was just sold via Heritage for $31,200.
An $8K loss in 6 months.
Ouch!
This is actually the same Ozzie that was part of the Demitri Young Collection that sold on 5/20/12 via SCP Auctions for $19,557.20.
Just 2 years earlier the card (different cert) had sold for almost 1/3 the price. I wouldn’t be surprised that in a couple of years we see the value of this card (and many other overpriced late 1970s & 1980s cards) fall considerably as the trend is certainly in that direction.
I guess my question is, given the large amount of unopened still available from these years, what are people thinking? Especially buying and selling something so frequently for such a considerable loss!
I just looked it up, it's a pop 5. There's absolutely no way to form any kind of reliable pattern on something that rare. All it takes is one buyer to either enter or exit the market at the time the next one comes up for sale and you have a plus/minus difference of $20,000. Imagine if two enter or leave? And that's a temporary situation. Each time it comes up is a brand new equation. One might not come up for sale for another 5 years.
I can't believe we got to page 4 on this.
I can’t either LOL
As for sales patterns, well everything had been plummeting lately from the 1970s (especially late). Did you see that recent Aaron 1971 PSA 9 that sold for an enormous loss?
For the late 1970s you have the 1978 Murray that’s going for 2/3 what it sold a year ago. The Molitor has also similarly peaked from 1978 as both their pops have gone up. The 1979 Ryan has also peaked.
There’s no doubt the Ozzie population will continue to increase and no reason to think it won’t continue to lose value, as so many others have, from a time period where there is still so much unopened available.
I mean even from times when there isn’t unopened available those card values are dropping.
2015-2016 was certainly the time to be a seller!
Whether you believe it or not there aren’t actually that many buyers willing to spend 5 figures on a piece of cardboard from 1979. As the pops increase it just becomes that much harder for any seller to get what they used to be able to get.
I think everyone saw this coming when people were talking about unopened drying up only to see it still readily available for late 1970s.