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Ozzie Smith PSA 10 rookie down 20% and trending down.
mortiz
Posts: 62 ✭✭
The same card that went for $33,600 at Heritage Auctions last year sold for $6,600 less, after buyer’s “premium” (SMH) for $27,000 at REA, just 1 year later.
For some reason this card is being unloaded quite often over the last year and the sale price has been suffering as such.
I’ve never been a fan of investing so much in these modern cards as their value seems so much more fragile than the classics.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the hammer price on the Ozzie Smith rookie fall to $10,000 or below as the population of the card continues to increase and it becomes easier to buy.
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The PSA 10 1980 Rickey Henderson in the same auction sold for $21,600, one of the lowest prices of the last 18 months or so. Maybe the timing just wasn't right for these; or everyone is too sleepy from watching the world series.....
Has the population of the Henderson increased? It has for the Ozzie Smith.
I suspect you would find a lot of inequities between sales of a year ago and today. The summer of 2016 will live on in the annals of hobby lore.
Why what was so special about the summer of 2016?
I wasn't active in the hobby then so I'm sure others will be able to elaborate much more than I. I just know that if you look at enough cards in VCP you'll see that most of them saw a large spike in price end of spring/beginning of summer last year. It's stuck for some, for others it's started to slide back, but I don't believe I've seen any that have completely regressed to the original point.
pretty sure i just saw a henderson PSA 10 at auction on ebay go for $30k recently.
myslabs.to/smzcards
I put increasingly less and less stock in completed auction "sales." It is far too easy for the nefarious-minded to obtain a few copies of a given card, create a price increase (be it through legitimate buying or phantom sales), then unload.
Instagram: mattyc_collection
Interesting. I guess with cards that don’t have much chance of seeing their pop increase Is expect more stability in their premium prices. But for cards, like the late 70s, where there is still unopened readily available for consumption I just think it’s a poor investment to pay so high for these cards that will certainly see their prices decrease as the pops increase.
Of course for some money doesn’t matter so lucky them.
That’s a great point. This certainly does happen.
If you guys don't go by past sales, what do you use? The Force? Magic 8-ball?
Just over five years ago people were shocked when Dmitri Young's example closed just under 20k. The prior high was something like 12k. The Pop is only 5 so for this card to retreat to a price range that is sub 10k you are going to need a good number of fresh copies to enter the hobby.
1979 TOPPS #116 OZZIE SMITH PSA 10 (1/4) $19567.20
that's funny
I have to much S**t; so if you working on sets or are a player/team collector, send me your want list, with conditions desired. Keep in mind I have a another job so please allow me a few days to respond.
https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com/bids/bidplace?itemid=48248
Looks like some other marquee cards were a little soft too.
Jordan PSA 10 $16,800
Good question. My personal buying process is that I do go by past sales— yet only to an extent. If I am talking about a five-six digit acquisition, I try to do a lot of probing and parsing of the sales data. The more frequently sold, the more likelihood of reliable data points. If there are outliers, I try to determine the legitimacy of the forces behind them; is this a card I know an individual or individual is buying up? Was the sale venue reputable? Can I learn whether it was paid for or not? If on eBay, the bidding records can be helpful as well. Information is key— and the more people one knows who can provide quality information, the better. Ultimately, it comes down to comfort with what I am spending and how much I love the piece for my collection.
Instagram: mattyc_collection
The one that just sold a REA was previously purchased at Heritage on 5/14/16 for $33,460. That’s a $6,460 loss.
Given the amount of legitimate, factory sealed, unopened still available for the year this came out, this is probably only a $6,000 - $8,000 card as it sold for from 2008 to 2010 when it first came to market.
I was looking at the pop report and see the Nolan Ryan card (#115) is now a pop 11. I think it was only a pop 5 based on auction descriptions I saw from a few years ago.
I’m just saying I think we’re seeing the Ozzie Smith being sold so frequently now for a reason, with collectors being willing to take a substantial loss to do so.
@mortiz It is hard to say whether or not the seller thought the card would sell for this price or not. I haven't followed the card in a while and I see the PSA 9's have corrected on EBAY about 35% on average so it could be a seller that is worried about the card declining and wanted out.
One thing I have been surprised by over the years is the hot potato game that is played with trading cards. There are quite a few market participants that turn over higher dollar cards with regularity and it seemed for a number of years it was always at higher prices. That has clearly changed in the past 18 months.
I could see passing around high dollar cards where the likelihood of a pop increase is low being a more profitable venture but this just seems odd to me.
This card has all of a sudden been sold 5 times publically in the past 18 months after only being sold 5 times in the previous 8 years.
And it’s a pop 5 card. So why are people getting it and unloading it so quickly?
Can anyone post a picture of the card in question, or a link to it? Thank you
Just a thought, from a guy who watched baseball throughout the entire 80's as a kid, maybe it's a case of buyers remorse.
personally, I think prices for Henderson and Ozzie is just CRAZY for what they were. Personally, I would ask myself why I just spent that much for a Smith rookie, after I look at his career stats. As for Henderson, ditto. He just hung around way too long to get his numbers.
Just my opinion of course, but $20K can build a very nice collection vs. a single Ozzie or Ricky rookie
Rickey's one of the top 15 or 20 position players in history. I tend to agree that his 80 Topps in PSA 10 has gotten to an outrageous level however. I'd take my 25K or 30K and build a heluva collection, not splurge on one card.
I think the key take away from the REA auction was everything was down unless I was bidding on it. Then it was up!
The Doomsday Collection
Dallas Cowboys Ring of Honor | All-Time Dallas Cowboys | Bob Lilly Master | Pro Football HOF Dallas Cowboys
I started buying graded rookies in the $300-$2500 range again after I thought prices had stabilized from Summer 2016. So far I am 10-20% down on paper on all of the cards except for one (I bought 6 cards) over that time.
The cards I bought are ones that I needed and I was very selective, so I don't mind holding. I have done much better speculating on modern football rookie cards, easy double on most.
I think the key with the Ozzie is the condition sensitivity (poor card stock and an edge of the sheet card that's rarely centered). I've often thought the same in regards to his career compared to Rickey and Eddie Murray, although today's metrics may prove he was more on their level than I ever thought.
The Ozzie and Rickey rookies also benefit from timing. If you grew up during the collecting boom you probably weren't old enough to have pulled one from a pack and if you were old enough to have gotten one, you put a rubber band around it and wanted a better one. These were the cards the biggest collecting generation coveted. Not out of reach like a mantle, or just a few more packs away like Griffey. But too many weeks of allowance to make for a comfortable purchase. They just sat at the card show teasing you.
No doubt much media coverage/fan popularity while they played figured in the driving up of the cards. By no means were these 2 players ever out of the spotlight much. Definitely not out of sight out, of mind with those 2.
Dabbling in the modern market at the right time has it's advantages.
No doubt that happened especially last year, but but in the case of the Ozzy RC, there are only 5 PSA 10’s and it looks like there were only 2 diffeeent ones sold over the last 5 years so I do t know that there was much manipulation on that one in particular. However, after sitting on a pop 3 forever it’s now a pop 5. Those extra 2 copies can definitely affect the value negatively when you’re talking about such a low number
TheClockworkAngelCollection
I’m also noticing a few of these types of cards are dropping themed threads on the front page: I just can’t put much weight on prices dropping as Compared to early to mid 2016 because that was just a ridiculous 6 month stretch in the market that Most of us felt couldn’t last and would top out. Might be interesting to see where some of these prices sit in a year and use that as a better gauge...
I will say that these PSA 10 Hof RCs from the 70’s and 80’s are dicey because of exactly what happened with the Ozzie RC. When a couple extra 10’s pop of a super low pop, it will obviously hurt the value. And that’s always a high probability to happen just based on how many ungraded Ozzie’s or those pulled from unopened pop up
TheClockworkAngelCollection
On the contrary, there is an expert who posts on the sports talk forum who says Ozzie was maybe only
slightly better than an average shortstop defensively. I guess his numbers compared to a replacement
player are not all that impressive. Same with Bill Mazeroski, who was also noted for his defense.
Rickey was probably the best leadoff hitter ever, definetely didn't pad his stats at end of career as the other
poster suggests. That would be Craig Biggio who did that. Eddie Murray, one of the best hitters of his era.
Both much better players than Ozzie.
In the course of every human endeavor since the dawn of time the risk of human error has always been a factor. Including but not limited to field goals, 4th down attempts, or multiple paragraph ramblings on a sports forum authored by someone who shall remain anonymous.
Yup. I remember A lot of people thought Tony Fernandez was a much better defensive Shortstop than Ozzie.
Ozzie was likable, high profile, loved the camera, and had some big moments in the Postseason. Doing those flips coming out to start the game helped too. If he had stayed in San Diego and had the same statistics, he'd be just another guy
TheClockworkAngelCollection
I guess that would be me :-)
I don't know, show me the wow in his stats
I included everything
not just the padded
I'm not saying the guy sucked, but if everybody dragged out their career, 3,000 hits would like 30 home runs did back in the 80's ... no longer a bench mark
There were many great leadoff batters, not just Rickey.
Imagine Lou Whitaker playing another 6 years, as Rickey did
Wouldn’t being the all-time stolen base leader, the all time career leadoff Home run leader, and 2nd all time walks leader all qualify as wow stats?
TheClockworkAngelCollection
A career .279 hitter isn't that impressive, but look at all those bases. In today's game, a base stealing threat might be someone who gets 30 stolen bases a year. Henderson did that 21 times! Plus 2190 walks.....that's a lot of bases.
I would agree though, the last 4 years or so of his career was a big drop off....
I detect some east coast bias here. Henderson from Oakland and Ozzie went to school at SLO. I'm guessing his detractors are from the East Coast? Unless you had your head up your a** in the 80's, Henderson was the most dynamic player around for at least a decard. A walk was essentially a double. No-one does that anymore, because they can't.
Collecting Unopened from '72-'83; mostly BBCE certified boxes/cases/racks.
Prefer to buy in bulk.
No question he held on way too long, but cut off his stats after age 38 and then compare with Whitaker. Through age 38, he had 1913 runs, 252 HRs, 1231 SBs, 2550 hits, 1772 BBs. Runs and SBs are mind-blowing.
I agree, they wouldn't be able to do what Henderson did even if they tried, but players today don't attempt stolen bases like they used to. This is the "feast or famine" era of baseball (HR or strikeout), which supports the theory that Rob Deer was about 30 years ahead of his time...
Or that Dave Kingman was 40 years ahead of his time...
no, head was fully out at that time
I'm not east or west coast kind of guy
that's for rappers :-)
but I'm mid-west
I think Rickey was a good player, who yes, stole bases and scored some runs, based on those stolen bases
I think the topic was $20,000 for a rookie card
and my feelings were no, based on stats
Most dynamic ???
he was his best endorser
but that is a stretch
opinions vary & that's cool
Agree, I wouldn't spend $20K on the card, but I gotta defend Rickey against Whitaker comparisons. Not even close.
Rickey likes 30K rookies!!! Rickey thinks as well that Rickey’s card in a 9 is a a beast to find centered without Rickey print in the background and Rickey rough edges on the bottom. Most of the Rickey 9’s I look at look like Rickey junk!!! Is That why a Rickey 10 is Rickey gold??? Is it desirable???? Rickey 30K???
The uniqueness about Henderson was he could hit homers, and he had amazing speed, and was a ridiculously smart base runner. Rarely, if ever, have we seen that combination of talent in baseball. Mays? Bonds?
Long before the ground ball analytics, the HR/Strikeout theory has it's foundation in the premise that if you're not hitting homers, you need to be batting for average and stealing bases. Or worse, have mutliple players (tweeners) like the SF Giants who don't hit homers, don't hit for average, and can't steal a base from a blind catcher. Henderson did all three.
I think you're going to see a massive re-evaluation of draft prospects. These .250 hitters with 8 HR's and 5 SB's who don't have speed are like poison. Either hit 30 HR's and strikeout a ton; or bat .280, high OB %, and steal 30 bases.
Collecting Unopened from '72-'83; mostly BBCE certified boxes/cases/racks.
Prefer to buy in bulk.
Henderson is hands down the greatest leadoff hitter in baseball history and a slam dunk HOFer. It's not even debatable. And Rickey agrees.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Welcome to the forum
where does Wade Boggs rank ?
thank you
Boggs batted leadoff only about 1/3 of his career, so I wouldn't categorize him as a leadoff hitter like Henderson was.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Unfortunately, there's no debate in regards to Rickey being the best leadoff hitter ever... not even close, especially when you look at #2 and #3 on the list.
Agreed. One stat like his season and career stolen base records are so far ahead of everyone else it makes him the GOAT leadoff hitter.
Need proof. How about a 324-292 pitching record for a HOF pitcher. Not exactly jump off the page stats, but add to it 5714 K's plus a season high 383 K's and you have the GOAT power pitcher in MLB history and there is not a #2 to Nolan Ryan.