@RegistryCoin said:
Where is delivery?
Barter with a familiar forum member to hand deliver?
Then, unfortunately, you are setting yourself up for a potential chargeback.
PayPal does NOT recognize hand-delivery as proof of delivery.
I believe this is the case even if the delivery is filmed and a receipt is signed.
Better check with PayPal first before considering hand-delivery.
An authorized PCGS dealer, and a contributor to the Red Book.
@ErrorsOnCoins said:
What are the odds of the USPS losing an ebay bubble package with a tracking number? Probably less than .01 percent but that is a guess on my part.
I have shipped over 5000 coins. I don't remember any (maybe just one years ago) that got lost in the mail.
Now with the ebay/ paypal printed label with tracking, the mail just does not get lost. Yes you do hear about the the extremely rare instances when it does happen. You do not hear about the katrillion packages delivered daily without issue.
Well, a loss rate of 1 in 5000 is 100% higher than .01 percent.
@Gluggo said:
Once the payment enters Paypal you then transfer all every cent into your bank account. Once those funds show up in YOUR account and you have not filled any paper form to allow some one access (this being the buyer) to your account you are safe. IMPO It will take at least 24 hours to enter your account.
Good example or similar I signed a check to buy a coin and it was deposited in NY from a major firm. They waiting for the check to clear in their bank even though my bank showed it cashed and showing the cashed check in my account. It took an additional 3 day. But in Paypal usually 24 hours to enter YOUR ACCOUNT.
Then you use signature confirmation. Here is one that will blow your mind even after with signature confirmation Fed Ex called me out of the blue and the buyer and not responded after 3 posted deliver attempts. I went back online and left two (2) messages the last one that I was concerned about his safety cause it was a few thousand dollars that I was going to contact the State Police!
Guess what he finally answered me telling me (within hours) he signed for it. Sounds crazy but you protect yourself from cradle to grave! You should be fine. I was worried for those few days but I had full control his money + Fed Ex refusing to give the package with out a signature. Full respect to Fed Ex for a superb job! This was only 2 weeks ago. And I came here and the good people here helped with their thoughts just returning the favor. Glen
Paypal could refund money back to buyer ...putting a negative balance on your PP account .. then if You don't pay up..... PP sends your account to collectors
Well I do agree IF I fail to respond to the Investigation which is where your scene would end up. Of course I have over 15 years with Ebay and about 10 with PayPal and;
I have documented pictures of me packaging up the coin in every aspects of the packaging. Including documented evidence from a 3rd party delivery service. So I feel (in my opinion) that Ebay and Paypal would determine in favor of me the seller. I do double check my work cross the T's and dot the I's. But I do agree it is possible. Thank you ps my ebay postive feedback is over 800. If he was really trying to rip me off he will have a low score or a known scum bag thief. JMO Ofcourse!
Nothing worse than a thief!
Just yesterday I had a know Ebay seller 10 days after receiving the product, contact me that shipping was $10.00 over their offer asking me to do what is right. Without hesitation I paid it while away on a work trip! With direct communication cause its my responsibility cradle to grave to try to be fair.
Amex almost always backs the buyer ... if amex pulls back the money paid to PP/seller ..You are out of crap..
How??? easy ......If buyer uses amex ,he complains to Amex ..PP will close their investigation..... letting Amex handle it
Best of luck. ~$500 is the most expensive coin I've ever sold on ebay for a reason. I know many people sell high dollar items there all the time but it would make me queasy (man of limited means).
Curious what your response would be if you had a $5000 package stolen by the Post Office! Yes I did and thankfully it was registered and insured! I agree with self insuring lessor priced items....but really... you ship high dollar items and self insure? No offense...to each his own...but that seems pretty dumb to me!
@ErrorsOnCoins said:
LMAO about packages lost in the mail. Do the math. How much have you paid in insurance costs vs how many (value of) packages are lost in the mail.
There is a reason that every insurance guy I know has some really nice toys. Most insurance is NOT worth it IMO.
@giorgio11 said:
Are you guys using "self insure" as a euphemism for "not insure and hope nothing happens"? Or are you talking about private insurance (non-USPS)?
Kind regards,
George
To me, it means I don't insure, and just save the money instead. Sure, I lose a package every now and then, but the money I have saved covers it. BUT if you are not shipping a LOT of stuff, or have a really high priced item, it is wise to insure.
@amwldcoin said:
Curious what your response would be if you had a $5000 package stolen by the Post Office! Yes I did and thankfully it was registered and insured! I agree with self insuring lessor priced items....but really... you ship high dollar items and self insure? No offense...to each his own...but that seems pretty dumb to me!
@ErrorsOnCoins said:
LMAO about packages lost in the mail. Do the math. How much have you paid in insurance costs vs how many (value of) packages are lost in the mail.
There is a reason that every insurance guy I know has some really nice toys. Most insurance is NOT worth it IMO.
I wonder if the package was stolen at the post office BECAUSE it was registered and had valuables inside.
I wonder if the package was stolen at the post office BECAUSE it was registered and had valuables inside.
All high dollar items are subject to theft by a dishonest postal employee whether they be a Registered package or a bubble envelope with a $25 postage label affixed. At least with registered the chain of custody usually identifies the likely thief and postal employees know this.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
" All high dollar items are subject to theft by a dishonest postal employee"
Exactly my point.
ebay bubble packaging with no insurance is practically invisible to the post office employee who steals high ticket items.
They also steal what is easiest to steal. Your invisible package being the easiest. Not insuring is your choice, not a good choice to recommend to others without at least advising them of the chance they are taking.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
" All high dollar items are subject to theft by a dishonest postal employee"
Exactly my point.
ebay bubble packaging with no insurance is practically invisible to the post office employee who steals high ticket items.
They also steal what is easiest to steal. Your invisible package being the easiest.
You are paranoid, that just does not happen. Tracking number on all packages.
And you recommend people spending a ton of extra money and lots of extra time packaging and going to the PO when PayPal covers you if you follow their guidelines .
I am way ahead money wise by never buying registered mail and rarely buying insurance which I no longer do as Paypal protection is super awesome.
I own my house so I am not required to insure it. But I do so any way because if something happened I couldn't manage the loss.
I also insure my coin collection for the same reason. Likewise, my health.
But I do not insure most coins when shipping because I know I am saving far more money than I am risking. If something happened I could manage it.
Insurance is a very profitable business. Insurance companies acquire more money through premium payments than they pay out in losses and are profitable even after factoring-in the huge overhead of running the businesses.
It is not dumb to self insure. It is a calculated risk with very favorable odds. If you can't deal with a loss then buy insurance.
Oh, and I also never buy insurance when the blackjack dealer's hand shows an ace. Few players do because the odds are not favorable and they can manage an occasional loss.
Lance.
" All high dollar items are subject to theft by a dishonest postal employee"
Exactly my point.
ebay bubble packaging with no insurance is practically invisible to the post office employee who steals high ticket items.
They also steal what is easiest to steal. Your invisible package being the easiest.
You are paranoid, that just does not happen. Tracking number on all packages.
And you recommend people spending a ton of extra money and lots of extra time packaging and going to the PO when PayPal covers you if you follow their guidelines .
I am way ahead money wise by never buying registered mail and rarely buying insurance which I no longer do as Paypal protection is super awesome.
And you recommend people spending a ton of extra money and lots of extra time packaging and going to the PO when PayPal covers you if you follow their guidelines .
I am way ahead money wise by never buying registered mail and rarely buying insurance which I no longer do as Paypal protection is super awesome.
I recommend registered (which includes insurance) when shipping high dollar items. It takes a whole lot of "self insured" shipping costs savings to make up for the loss of an uninsured $2500 coin. I do self insure low dollar shipments when I feel a loss is negligible. I find that at about $700 + registered works out cheaper (and more secure) than insured priority or first class. Recently sent $10K of gold to the TPG registered for $36. Did I waste my money on insurance - you bet. Any type of insurance expense is a waste until suddenly it was a wise investment. You do it your way and I'll do it my way.
You keep falsely stating that paypal protection covers you as a seller when the post office loses an uninsured coin. Just not gonna happen. While paypal protects you from dishonest buyers it does not protect you from dishonest postal employees. As stated elsewhere in this thread it is insurance (and not paypal) that protects a seller from loss/theft until the item shows delivered. Ebay buyers do not benefit from (and should not pay extra for) shipping insurance; many seller's on the other hand learn the hard way it is the only way to protect an item in transit.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
Have never lost a FedEx or Express Mail in 27 years. ALMOST lost a fedex one time on a shipment to Sunnyvale ca.....the package sat on the runway but they found it while I was on hold and it made it to it's destination.
@mrearlygold said:
Have never lost a FedEx or Express Mail in 27 years. ALMOST lost a fedex one time on a shipment to Sunnyvale ca.....the package sat on the runway but they found it while I was on hold and it made it to it's destination.
I was driving behind a Fedex truck once on an interstate and watched the back door fly open and packages come flying out. Doubt they recovered them all...of course that's a true rarity, but nothing is 100%. I send true valuables registered. Peace of mind for a cost, but better than losing things like $10K in coins or my son's teddy bear (he outgrew it, but I still have it!). Nothing is infallible, but registered is as close as it gets. Not a help to the OP as I have no idea what protection there is from an 'empty package' or 'box of rocks' claim.
The only seller protection in the case of an empty ebay package claim is the account history and ebay messages of both parties on file with PP/Ebay. Decisions are made based on what is known about both parties. Paypal does not have access to ebay account info, so a paypal claim is a bit tougher on a seller.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
Well! It was a heavy package that weighed over a pound! Doubt it was because it was registered but I'm willing to wager a PO employee is looking at some jail time as it was a small satellite PO with very few employees! Wish they would tell me the outcome of their investigation but they are closed lipped! They did get a lead to a dealer that responded he had purchased some of the well documented photographed coins!
@amwldcoin said:
Curious what your response would be if you had a $5000 package stolen by the Post Office! Yes I did and thankfully it was registered and insured! I agree with self insuring lessor priced items....but really... you ship high dollar items and self insure? No offense...to each his own...but that seems pretty dumb to me!
@ErrorsOnCoins said:
LMAO about packages lost in the mail. Do the math. How much have you paid in insurance costs vs how many (value of) packages are lost in the mail.
There is a reason that every insurance guy I know has some really nice toys. Most insurance is NOT worth it IMO.
I wonder if the package was stolen at the post office BECAUSE it was registered and had valuables inside.
What is important here is that those that use USPS clearly understand their options and the consequences of their choices.
Facts are:
-Registered mail (insurance is always included in fee) is more secure as it moves through the delivery system. It requires postal employee signatures at each hand-off. It also requires special packaging.
-Self insurance (no insurance) means person shipping eats any loss, Paypal and Ebay will not protect the person shipping.
-At approx. $700 it s cheaper to ship registered vs. insured regular priority or regular first class.
-Two types of registered: Registered priority and Registered first class for items under 13 ozs. They both move at the same pace but registered first class is cheaper if you qualify for it.
-USPS will pay no more than $15 on a postal claim involving bullion unless it is shipped registered where they cover the market value. There is no clear USPS definition of "bullion."
To insure or not to insure. . .
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
I got in a car wreck. The other party asked for my insurance information. I said I was self insured. I tried to tell them that although they don't know me I promise to fix their car.
Maybe I should have said my feed back is great. Heh
Please... Save The Stories, Just Answer My Questions, And Tell Me How Much!!!!!
sure I do. they are an important part of any gamble. the odds are that, because of its security features, a registered package has a much greater chance of reaching its destination.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
Here's what I know about odds: If there are odds, then there is the chance that something will occur one way or the other way. This tells me my shipment could get stolen or lost. Regardless of how great that chance is it still exists.
The addition of a tracking number to a shipment does not increase security, it provides tracking up until the time it is delivered and only it it gets scanned. It also shows the last place it was scanned which is not necessarily the place it was stolen from. I doubt a postal thief is going to scan something right before he puts it in his pocket. He is required however, to sign for a registered package right before he puts it in his pocket.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
@ErrorsOnCoins said:
The OP seemed to be concerned about fraud from a buyer and not lost mail.
Paypal will cover fraud, but not lost packages from the PO.
The odds of the post office losing your package is just about zero.
Actually, you are STILL wrong. Paypal will NOT cover you if the buyer claims the package is empty. Want to test the theory? Let me buy something from you.. Also, I am curious. How many packages do you ship in a year, and what is your average package value?
Technically, by mailing an envelope with an expensive item in it with no insurance you are gambling on whether or not it will get there. It is overwhelming likely that it will get there just fine. But it is still a gamble. I don't understand why you don't get that ErrorsOnCoins, especially after accusing someone else of not understanding odds.
If the odds of your package getting to its final destination is 99.99%, that means that you odds of the package getting 'lost' is 0.01% which is 1 in 10000. Obviously most people never send 10000 packages in their lives and so most people are statistically likely to never have a package of theirs lost by the postal service. I believe that the comment about luck running out was meant in the case that you send 10000 packages. It is statistically likely that 1 or more of your packages may not get there - I calculated the odds for myself, it's a simple 1 liner. But since we are such statistical experts here, I will leave that as an exercise for the readers. Hint, is it more likely that 1 or more of your packages will get lost than all 10000 of your packages make it there. You have to look at the odds and the value of the item inside and the price of insurance to decide whether the gamble is worth taking.
I don't know the true rate at which USPS loses packages, 1 in 10000 I just decided to use for my example. I also won't claim that it makes financial sense to insure/registered or not. I am just talking about the fundamentals and the math. It is a gamble. It's a statistical game.
Anyways, I believe this is tangent to the original OP.
@ErrorsOnCoins said:
It is not a matter of luck, it is a matter of odds.
It is a very simple math problem and not hard to understand.
getting back to the OP's question what does you simple math problem say his odds are that he will get scammed?
Based on your insurance discussion would your advice to him be "don't worry about getting scammed, odds are in your favor?" Or, like insurance, should he take steps to minimize those odds?
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
I usually ship about 400-500 packages a year. I've been doing this for 8-10 years or so. I usually have a lost package every year or 2. If I save $5 a package not buying insurance, it saves about $2,000 a year. My average package value is $300ish. I can lose a few of those a year and still come out ahead. But taking a $3,000 hit would really hurt, so I insure ones that are that pricey. Pretty easy to explain really.
@GRANDAM said:
You can always be scammed,,,,,,,, he could say the box was empty.
Some people make a boxing video,,,,,, not sure how much that would help though.
I have been nervous on deals before but never really lost any money.
Worst deal was a $150 coin showed out for delivery by out-of-state Post Office but never scanned as delivered. Buyer claimed never receiving it since no proof of delivery. PayPal took my money but I insured it and Post Office paid the claim.
Even if you use a seperate account and PayPal deceides you owe them they will hound you until you pay them back.
If it doesn't feel right don't do it.
Just because someone videotaped putting it in a box doesn't prove anything. They can still take an empty identical looking one to the PO.
I do remind customers that registered mail insurance is capped at $50k, regardless of whether a higher value is cited. And you are required to cite the true value and pay the extra cost for packages that exceed $50k.
Lance.
And if you don't and it gets lost your ENTIRE claim will be DENIED.
Comments
good to know. Must be that GPS stuff.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
Where is delivery?
Barter with a familiar forum member to hand deliver?
I didn't know either until my packages started showing as delivered and I didn't get them.
When the Post Office came out to investigate the carrier told me how she found them.
Only the Post Master (supervisors) can access this info at each office,,,, not the carriers
Means nothing. Video can be made to show anything, with splices.
I am most concerned about fraud from a buyer and not the extremely rare lost package from the USPS which I trust.
Follow paypal terms and they will cover you for fraud including CC Chargebacks.
Paypal has covered me many times for buyer fraud.
I have paid out less than 10 dollars for a lost package years ago, none since with the printed PayPal tracking label.
Then, unfortunately, you are setting yourself up for a potential chargeback.
PayPal does NOT recognize hand-delivery as proof of delivery.
I believe this is the case even if the delivery is filmed and a receipt is signed.
Better check with PayPal first before considering hand-delivery.
An authorized PCGS dealer, and a contributor to the Red Book.
Well, a loss rate of 1 in 5000 is 100% higher than .01 percent.
Amex almost always backs the buyer ... if amex pulls back the money paid to PP/seller ..You are out of crap..
How??? easy ......If buyer uses amex ,he complains to Amex ..PP will close their investigation..... letting Amex handle it
Best of luck. ~$500 is the most expensive coin I've ever sold on ebay for a reason. I know many people sell high dollar items there all the time but it would make me queasy (man of limited means).
Out of curiosity is this the coin? ebay.com
.
You need to sell your big ticket coins at shows. I have a risk limit for online big ticket material sell from my table at shows.
Curious what your response would be if you had a $5000 package stolen by the Post Office! Yes I did and thankfully it was registered and insured! I agree with self insuring lessor priced items....but really... you ship high dollar items and self insure? No offense...to each his own...but that seems pretty dumb to me!
Are you guys using "self insure" as a euphemism for "not insure and hope nothing happens"? Or are you talking about private insurance (non-USPS)?
Kind regards,
George
"self insure" = "not insure and hope nothing happens"
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
To me, it means I don't insure, and just save the money instead. Sure, I lose a package every now and then, but the money I have saved covers it. BUT if you are not shipping a LOT of stuff, or have a really high priced item, it is wise to insure.
I wonder if the package was stolen at the post office BECAUSE it was registered and had valuables inside.
All high dollar items are subject to theft by a dishonest postal employee whether they be a Registered package or a bubble envelope with a $25 postage label affixed. At least with registered the chain of custody usually identifies the likely thief and postal employees know this.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
" All high dollar items are subject to theft by a dishonest postal employee"
Exactly my point.
ebay bubble packaging with no insurance is practically invisible to the post office employee who steals high ticket items.
They also steal what is easiest to steal. Your invisible package being the easiest. Not insuring is your choice, not a good choice to recommend to others without at least advising them of the chance they are taking.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
You are paranoid, that just does not happen. Tracking number on all packages.
And you recommend people spending a ton of extra money and lots of extra time packaging and going to the PO when PayPal covers you if you follow their guidelines .
I am way ahead money wise by never buying registered mail and rarely buying insurance which I no longer do as Paypal protection is super awesome.
The reality of it all
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
I own my house so I am not required to insure it. But I do so any way because if something happened I couldn't manage the loss.
I also insure my coin collection for the same reason. Likewise, my health.
But I do not insure most coins when shipping because I know I am saving far more money than I am risking. If something happened I could manage it.
Insurance is a very profitable business. Insurance companies acquire more money through premium payments than they pay out in losses and are profitable even after factoring-in the huge overhead of running the businesses.
It is not dumb to self insure. It is a calculated risk with very favorable odds. If you can't deal with a loss then buy insurance.
Oh, and I also never buy insurance when the blackjack dealer's hand shows an ace. Few players do because the odds are not favorable and they can manage an occasional loss.
Lance.
Paypal does not cover a lost or damaged in transit package!
I recommend registered (which includes insurance) when shipping high dollar items. It takes a whole lot of "self insured" shipping costs savings to make up for the loss of an uninsured $2500 coin. I do self insure low dollar shipments when I feel a loss is negligible. I find that at about $700 + registered works out cheaper (and more secure) than insured priority or first class. Recently sent $10K of gold to the TPG registered for $36. Did I waste my money on insurance - you bet. Any type of insurance expense is a waste until suddenly it was a wise investment. You do it your way and I'll do it my way.
You keep falsely stating that paypal protection covers you as a seller when the post office loses an uninsured coin. Just not gonna happen. While paypal protects you from dishonest buyers it does not protect you from dishonest postal employees. As stated elsewhere in this thread it is insurance (and not paypal) that protects a seller from loss/theft until the item shows delivered. Ebay buyers do not benefit from (and should not pay extra for) shipping insurance; many seller's on the other hand learn the hard way it is the only way to protect an item in transit.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
I'm getting dizzy reading all of this, but I am learning a lot here
Successful transactions with : MICHAELDIXON, Manorcourtman, Bochiman, bolivarshagnasty, AUandAG, onlyroosies, chumley, Weiss, jdimmick, BAJJERFAN, gene1978, TJM965, Smittys, GRANDAM, JTHawaii, mainejoe, softparade, derryb, Ricko
Bad transactions with : nobody to date
Have never lost a FedEx or Express Mail in 27 years. ALMOST lost a fedex one time on a shipment to Sunnyvale ca.....the package sat on the runway but they found it while I was on hold and it made it to it's destination.
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
The OP seemed to be concerned about fraud from a buyer and not lost mail.
Paypal will cover fraud, but not lost packages from the PO.
The odds of the post office losing your package is just about zero.
Odds are pretty low that my house will burn down. But, just in case. . .
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
I was driving behind a Fedex truck once on an interstate and watched the back door fly open and packages come flying out. Doubt they recovered them all...of course that's a true rarity, but nothing is 100%. I send true valuables registered. Peace of mind for a cost, but better than losing things like $10K in coins or my son's teddy bear (he outgrew it, but I still have it!). Nothing is infallible, but registered is as close as it gets. Not a help to the OP as I have no idea what protection there is from an 'empty package' or 'box of rocks' claim.
The only seller protection in the case of an empty ebay package claim is the account history and ebay messages of both parties on file with PP/Ebay. Decisions are made based on what is known about both parties. Paypal does not have access to ebay account info, so a paypal claim is a bit tougher on a seller.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
Well! It was a heavy package that weighed over a pound! Doubt it was because it was registered but I'm willing to wager a PO employee is looking at some jail time as it was a small satellite PO with very few employees! Wish they would tell me the outcome of their investigation but they are closed lipped! They did get a lead to a dealer that responded he had purchased some of the well documented photographed coins!
I am really enjoying this discussion. Both @ErrorsOnCoins and @derryb make some great points and they are able to remain civil. Well done!
Oy vey. Hey Dave, you got all that?
What is important here is that those that use USPS clearly understand their options and the consequences of their choices.
Facts are:
-Registered mail (insurance is always included in fee) is more secure as it moves through the delivery system. It requires postal employee signatures at each hand-off. It also requires special packaging.
-Self insurance (no insurance) means person shipping eats any loss, Paypal and Ebay will not protect the person shipping.
-At approx. $700 it s cheaper to ship registered vs. insured regular priority or regular first class.
-Two types of registered: Registered priority and Registered first class for items under 13 ozs. They both move at the same pace but registered first class is cheaper if you qualify for it.
-USPS will pay no more than $15 on a postal claim involving bullion unless it is shipped registered where they cover the market value. There is no clear USPS definition of "bullion."
To insure or not to insure. . .
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
It is not a matter of luck, it is a matter of odds.
It is a very simple math problem and not hard to understand.
Go ahead and waste your money and your time.
I do neither (register and insure) and I am way ahead on money and more importantly time.
I got in a car wreck. The other party asked for my insurance information. I said I was self insured. I tried to tell them that although they don't know me I promise to fix their car.
Maybe I should have said my feed back is great. Heh
S&W 44 mag: The best insurance money can buy.
Please be sure to post when your odds run out.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
odds are your shipment will get delivered, insured or not. odds are my house won't burn down. You've made your point and I believe I have made mine.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
You obviously do not understand odds.
sure I do. they are an important part of any gamble. the odds are that, because of its security features, a registered package has a much greater chance of reaching its destination.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
So you do not understand odds.
You are saying that by mailing an envelope with a tracking number that you are gambling???
Wow you are super paranoid, thus all the gun images, I guess.
Here's what I know about odds: If there are odds, then there is the chance that something will occur one way or the other way. This tells me my shipment could get stolen or lost. Regardless of how great that chance is it still exists.
The addition of a tracking number to a shipment does not increase security, it provides tracking up until the time it is delivered and only it it gets scanned. It also shows the last place it was scanned which is not necessarily the place it was stolen from. I doubt a postal thief is going to scan something right before he puts it in his pocket. He is required however, to sign for a registered package right before he puts it in his pocket.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
I want to go to YOUR casino where I get the odds that I get that I won't lose a package using the USPS. YOUR casino will be broke in a day.
Using the USPS is not gambling.
Actually, you are STILL wrong. Paypal will NOT cover you if the buyer claims the package is empty. Want to test the theory? Let me buy something from you.. Also, I am curious. How many packages do you ship in a year, and what is your average package value?
Technically, by mailing an envelope with an expensive item in it with no insurance you are gambling on whether or not it will get there. It is overwhelming likely that it will get there just fine. But it is still a gamble. I don't understand why you don't get that ErrorsOnCoins, especially after accusing someone else of not understanding odds.
If the odds of your package getting to its final destination is 99.99%, that means that you odds of the package getting 'lost' is 0.01% which is 1 in 10000. Obviously most people never send 10000 packages in their lives and so most people are statistically likely to never have a package of theirs lost by the postal service. I believe that the comment about luck running out was meant in the case that you send 10000 packages. It is statistically likely that 1 or more of your packages may not get there - I calculated the odds for myself, it's a simple 1 liner. But since we are such statistical experts here, I will leave that as an exercise for the readers. Hint, is it more likely that 1 or more of your packages will get lost than all 10000 of your packages make it there. You have to look at the odds and the value of the item inside and the price of insurance to decide whether the gamble is worth taking.
I don't know the true rate at which USPS loses packages, 1 in 10000 I just decided to use for my example. I also won't claim that it makes financial sense to insure/registered or not. I am just talking about the fundamentals and the math. It is a gamble. It's a statistical game.
Anyways, I believe this is tangent to the original OP.
Successful transactions with: wondercoin, Tetromibi, PerryHall, PlatinumDuck, JohnMaben/Pegasus Coin & Jewelry, CoinFlip, and coinlieutenant.
getting back to the OP's question what does you simple math problem say his odds are that he will get scammed?
Based on your insurance discussion would your advice to him be "don't worry about getting scammed, odds are in your favor?" Or, like insurance, should he take steps to minimize those odds?
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
I usually ship about 400-500 packages a year. I've been doing this for 8-10 years or so. I usually have a lost package every year or 2. If I save $5 a package not buying insurance, it saves about $2,000 a year. My average package value is $300ish. I can lose a few of those a year and still come out ahead. But taking a $3,000 hit would really hurt, so I insure ones that are that pricey. Pretty easy to explain really.
Just because someone videotaped putting it in a box doesn't prove anything. They can still take an empty identical looking one to the PO.
And if you don't and it gets lost your ENTIRE claim will be DENIED.