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Sports Card Market Overall

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  • ClockworkAngelClockworkAngel Posts: 1,994 ✭✭✭

    This is a great read. The thing that I see said over and over that irks me is that “if the economy takes a nose dive, the card market will take a big hit”

    Well, duh. I think that’s a given. A bad economy means a bad market and downward spiral in everything. It’s not like if I see a collapse in the economy coming, i can sell all my cards and put the cash in real estate or the stock market or even coins and suddenly be immune from any losses, right? A bad economy is bad for everything.

    I do consider my collection a safe long term investment. I don’t touch much after 1980 and have focused on high end rookie cards from the 1940-1975 era and feel secure that I should continue to see gains on those cards, ASSUMING ALL ELSE in the economy is stable.

    As others have said, modern cards are way too volatile to be able to invest but sticking with the rare iconic rookie cards should be fairly safe.

    The Clockwork Angel Collection...brought to you by Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Chase
    TheClockworkAngelCollection
  • ReggieClevelandReggieCleveland Posts: 3,818 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I think a more interesting conversation would be true rarity versus condition rarity.

  • miwlvrnmiwlvrn Posts: 4,266 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November 2, 2017 5:50AM

    @ReggieCleveland said:
    I think a more interesting conversation would be true rarity versus condition rarity.

    Agreed. As per your example, I definitely prefer chasing a PSA 1 pre war SP card as opposed to say a PSA 10 1988 Donruss Devon White, even though both may be just as hard to come up with.

    I think the middle ground would be something like a PSA 9 1973 OPC #1 Ruth/Aaron/Mays, which may itself be an impossible task among our hobby.

  • ReggieClevelandReggieCleveland Posts: 3,818 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The problem you run into with condition rarity is that once a card becomes worth it money-wise, the doctors come out in full-force. Just this week, we've seen more than a few posts on this forum about people asking about odd prices realized. When there's a fat border or a problem that can easily be fixed, the card has more value to some than to others. If you're swimming in the high-grade end of the pool there's a few Baby Ruths floating in your collection whether you want to believe it or not. Some sets are worse than others. 1948 Leaf is like playing Russian roulette with one empty chamber.

  • I wonder if I am rare in that I place considerable weight upon supply, as it doesn't seem like very many people take it into consideration when they are opining on future investment value and increases over current price levels. The guy above pointed out the difference between "true rarity" and "condition rarity". The latter is essentially "contrived rarity" in my opinion. Also IMO, the cult-like mentality of "Condition rarity" is the main thing keeping this market propped up to begin with. I just don't see this lasting ten, fifteen... years into the future as the number of people entering the market will be much lower than those leaving it. The pool of what I would call "high-end market condition snobs" is pretty small to begin with, and I don't see it growing.

    I actively collect Kirby Puckett. I have collections of Michael Jordan, Emmitt Smith, Roberto Clemente, Dwight Gooden, Tom Seaver, Errict Rhett and Evan Longoria.

  • @Dpeck100 said:

    PSA has over 90% of the market share of new submissions so that would certainly qualify as a preferred grader.

    I'm not sure what you mean by this

    How did you get 90%

  • @Jimmy_Commonpants said:
    I wonder if I am rare in that I place considerable weight upon supply, as it doesn't seem like very many people take it into consideration when they are opining on future investment value and increases over current price levels. The guy above pointed out the difference between "true rarity" and "condition rarity". The latter is essentially "contrived rarity" in my opinion. Also IMO, the cult-like mentality of "Condition rarity" is the main thing keeping this market propped up to begin with. I just don't see this lasting ten, fifteen... years into the future as the number of people entering the market will be much lower than those leaving it. The pool of what I would call "high-end market condition snobs" is pretty small to begin with, and I don't see it growing.

    I agree with what you say, but that is exactly what graded cards are essentially - "contrived rarity"

    As far as "high end market snobs", that's called wealthy people. Always has been, and I don't think that will change. Wealthy people go after high end things.

  • waxman2745waxman2745 Posts: 766 ✭✭✭

    @ReggieCleveland said:
    The problem you run into with condition rarity is that once a card becomes worth it money-wise, the doctors come out in full-force. Just this week, we've seen more than a few posts on this forum about people asking about odd prices realized. When there's a fat border or a problem that can easily be fixed, the card has more value to some than to others. If you're swimming in the high-grade end of the pool there's a few Baby Ruths floating in your collection whether you want to believe it or not. Some sets are worse than others. 1948 Leaf is like playing Russian roulette with one empty chamber.

    Well said. Sheet-cut cards are out there in various third-party holders as well.

    Adam
    buying O-Pee-Chee (OPC) baseball
  • Dpeck100Dpeck100 Posts: 10,912 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @BGS_Buyer said:

    @Dpeck100 said:

    PSA has over 90% of the market share of new submissions so that would certainly qualify as a preferred grader.

    I'm not sure what you mean by this

    How did you get 90%

    PSA is owned by Collectors Universe and is a publicly traded company and it was in one of their investor presentations. It was 85% in 2010 and has moved up some in the past 7 years.

  • are you referring to the company as a whole, including the coins ?

  • Dpeck100Dpeck100 Posts: 10,912 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @BGS_Buyer said:
    are you referring to the company as a whole, including the coins ?

    I am referencing the graded card submission market share. PSA grades 9 out of 10 cards submitted to third party graders. One could argue almost a monopoly.

  • @Dpeck100 said:

    @BGS_Buyer said:
    are you referring to the company as a whole, including the coins ?

    I am referencing the graded card submission market share. PSA grades 9 out of 10 cards submitted to third party graders. One could argue almost a monopoly.

    ok, that is what I don't understand

    Beckett is going on 10 million slabs
    PSA about 28 million or so ?
    that is not 90%

  • Not to mention SGC & the countless other companies out there

    is this % number just for the most recent time ?
    who did this study ?

  • ReggieClevelandReggieCleveland Posts: 3,818 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Dpeck100 said:

    @BGS_Buyer said:
    are you referring to the company as a whole, including the coins ?

    I am referencing the graded card submission market share. PSA grades 9 out of 10 cards submitted to third party graders. One could argue almost a monopoly.

    I'm not doubting you but how do you determine that number? Just curious as it's interesting information

  • Dpeck100Dpeck100 Posts: 10,912 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Market share is not total graded cards in the prior 26 years. It's fresh cards submitted today. You can run searches on eBay by brand and it usually falls in the low 80 percent range for PSA. During the late 90's the market was very balanced but that began to shift and BGS lost tremendous market share and PSA's dominance began. I have always been reluctant to share my source but when I started saying 85% in 2011 that came from a phone conversation with Joe Orlando. About two years ago dbtunr who follows CLCT's stock closer than probably anyone posted the image with the 90% stat from the recent investor presentation. It is what it is.

  • Ebay searches of BGS/BVG vs PSA indicates a close match % of number of graded cards per each company, but that doesn't necessarily mean what was graded recently

  • Dpeck100Dpeck100 Posts: 10,912 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @BGS_Buyer said:

    Ebay searches of BGS/BVG vs PSA indicates a close match % of number of graded cards per each company, but that doesn't necessarily mean what was graded recently

    Got to head into a client meeting so I can't run the search at the moment but we have been over this many times before. An active search of listings will show a dramatically higher number for PSA.

  • @Dpeck100 said:

    @BGS_Buyer said:

    Ebay searches of BGS/BVG vs PSA indicates a close match % of number of graded cards per each company, but that doesn't necessarily mean what was graded recently

    Got to head into a client meeting so I can't run the search at the moment but we have been over this many times before. An active search of listings will show a dramatically higher number for PSA.

    yes, I agree 3 to 1 ratio
    about 75%

    I suppose 75% is close enough to 90%
    wouldn't you say ?

    But I wonder if you remove certain large submitters
    and leave only true collectors in the equation
    and what the numbers would look like then ? ...

  • BGS claims they have graded more cards over the past five years than PSA, so I don't know how PSA could claim they grade 90% of the cards. 50% to 60%, sure. Maybe 70%. Nowhere near 90%. I went to a show back in the summer and there were as many or more SGC slabs than PSA, which threw me for a loop. I started wondering if its because SGC is out of Florida too. Anyway....

    I actively collect Kirby Puckett. I have collections of Michael Jordan, Emmitt Smith, Roberto Clemente, Dwight Gooden, Tom Seaver, Errict Rhett and Evan Longoria.

  • HighGradeLegendsHighGradeLegends Posts: 1,693 ✭✭✭✭

    @BGS_Buyer said:

    @Dpeck100 said:

    @BGS_Buyer said:

    Ebay searches of BGS/BVG vs PSA indicates a close match % of number of graded cards per each company, but that doesn't necessarily mean what was graded recently

    Got to head into a client meeting so I can't run the search at the moment but we have been over this many times before. An active search of listings will show a dramatically higher number for PSA.

    yes, I agree 3 to 1 ratio
    about 75%

    I suppose 75% is close enough to 90%
    wouldn't you say ?

    But I wonder if you remove certain large submitters
    and leave only true collectors in the equation
    and what the numbers would look like then ? ...

    85-90% ms is a known known. Press the i believe button or review the cu 10k.

  • Dpeck100Dpeck100 Posts: 10,912 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November 2, 2017 10:51AM

    @Jimmy_Commonpants said:
    BGS claims they have graded more cards over the past five years than PSA, so I don't know how PSA could claim they grade 90% of the cards. 50% to 60%, sure. Maybe 70%. Nowhere near 90%. I went to a show back in the summer and there were as many or more SGC slabs than PSA, which threw me for a loop. I started wondering if its because SGC is out of Florida too. Anyway....

    I would love to see where BGS says they have graded more cards than any other third party grader over the past five years. That is beyond laughable.

    In 2013 I went to the National in Chicago and the PSA booth was jammed packed. The Beckett booth had people coming and going with no line and the SGC table was two guys twiddling their thumbs.

    CLCT is a publicly traded company. They can't put out BS market share stats.

  • Dpeck100Dpeck100 Posts: 10,912 ✭✭✭✭✭

    There is no way to accurately prove the point using an EBAY search as there are so many listings that keyword spam. Specifically listings that are BGS or BVG and mention PSA. That said using this approach it is clear there is dominance. When you consider that both companies had similar market share in the late 90's that will increase the percentage of Beckett graded cards using this approach and it is still an 80/20 ratio.

    Total listings under sports cards using PSA, BGS, and BVG as a search

    782,139

    PSA: 621,392 79.448%

    BGS: 146,493 (Combined) 20.552%

    BVG: 14,254

  • @Dpeck100 said:

    Total listings under sports cards using PSA, BGS, and BVG as a search

    782,139

    PSA: 621,392 79.448%

    BGS: 146,493 (Combined) 20.552%

    BVG: 14,254

    I agree with everything except your PSA total

    If you search sports cards on ebay, you get about 400,000+
    you searched everything ... autos, etc.

  • this is a search for cards

  • ReggieClevelandReggieCleveland Posts: 3,818 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Dpeck100 said:
    There is no way to accurately prove the point using an EBAY search as there are so many listings that keyword spam. Specifically listings that are BGS or BVG and mention PSA. That said using this approach it is clear there is dominance. When you consider that both companies had similar market share in the late 90's that will increase the percentage of Beckett graded cards using this approach and it is still an 80/20 ratio.

    Total listings under sports cards using PSA, BGS, and BVG as a search

    782,139

    PSA: 621,392 79.448%

    BGS: 146,493 (Combined) 20.552%

    BVG: 14,254

    Hmm... I just searched for PSA and got 488,000. What am I doing wrong?

  • @ReggieCleveland said:

    @Dpeck100 said:
    There is no way to accurately prove the point using an EBAY search as there are so many listings that keyword spam. Specifically listings that are BGS or BVG and mention PSA. That said using this approach it is clear there is dominance. When you consider that both companies had similar market share in the late 90's that will increase the percentage of Beckett graded cards using this approach and it is still an 80/20 ratio.

    Total listings under sports cards using PSA, BGS, and BVG as a search

    782,139

    PSA: 621,392 79.448%

    BGS: 146,493 (Combined) 20.552%

    BVG: 14,254

    Hmm... I just searched for PSA and got 488,000. What am I doing wrong?

    you didn't do anything wrong
    look at my post above
    your search and mine were cards only

  • ReggieClevelandReggieCleveland Posts: 3,818 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Total search under sports cards for (psa, sgc, bgs, bvg) = 684,327

    PSA = 488,049 71%
    SGC = 42,127 6%
    BGS = 145,680 21%
    BVG = 14,169 2%

  • ReggieClevelandReggieCleveland Posts: 3,818 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Perhaps your higher number was including autographed memorabilia?

  • bishopbishop Posts: 2,917 ✭✭✭

    Not sure what all you are doing wrong Reggie, but whatever it is would not surprise me one bit.

    Topps Baseball-1948, 1951 to 2017
    Bowman Baseball -1948-1955
    Fleer Baseball-1923, 1959-2007

    Al
  • Dpeck100Dpeck100 Posts: 10,912 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I clicked on the category and did a search by PSA, BGS, and BVG. When you click on the sub segment of sports trading cards you get 488,044.

    No matter how you run the search there is a massive disparity. There are thousands of listings that use both BGS, and BVG that get double counted. Another favorite is NOT BGS or Not PSA or SGC 96 = PSA.

  • Stone193Stone193 Posts: 24,438 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Thanx George for your response on coins.

    We have some members here with truly incredible "card" collections which are noteworthy.

    My collecting habits - primarily non-card - which I post here puts me more in the category of "curiosity?"

    Mike
  • ReggieClevelandReggieCleveland Posts: 3,818 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Sure. I think it's clear it's nowhere near 90% though.

  • @ReggieCleveland said:
    Total search under sports cards for (psa, sgc, bgs, bvg) = 684,327

    PSA = 488,049 71%
    SGC = 42,127 6%
    BGS = 145,680 21%
    BVG = 14,169 2%

    that's about 70% share for PSA
    strong number

    but as I mentioned before
    take away the large bulk submitters
    leave only the true collectors
    how would the numbers look ?
    I think it would be more comparable

    either way
    I think competition is good
    and one company controlling everything is not good for the hobby

  • Dpeck100Dpeck100 Posts: 10,912 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @ReggieCleveland said:
    Perhaps your higher number was including autographed memorabilia?

    Both will be inflated by autos with so many cards in holders that are signed.

    This is a pointless exercise other than to show a massive disparity in the number of items authenticated by the various companies.

    There is no way to do an Apples to Apples comparison.

    10% of all BVG listings have BGS in them too.

  • ReggieClevelandReggieCleveland Posts: 3,818 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The other factor to consider is that BGS controls recent releases. So with every year that passes I suspect that gap will close a little bit as the new shiny megafractorsplosiondufextrophylaser parallels get sent to BGS and the dwindling vintage stock gets sent to PSA.

  • ReggieClevelandReggieCleveland Posts: 3,818 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Dpeck100 said:

    @ReggieCleveland said:
    Perhaps your higher number was including autographed memorabilia?

    Both will be inflated by autos with so many cards in holders that are signed.

    This is a pointless exercise other than to show a massive disparity in the number of items authenticated by the various companies.

    There is no way to do an Apples to Apples comparison.

    10% of all BVG listings have BGS in them too.

    You can take out BVG entirely and it really doesn't affect the outcome.

    I wasn't referring to autographed cards, I was referring to autographed photos, bats, helmets, non-sport items, etc. PSA has a massive authentication department that has nothing to do with cards or even sports and there's a ton of stuff on ebay that falls in that category. I'm guessing that's what was skewing your number.

  • Dpeck100Dpeck100 Posts: 10,912 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @ReggieCleveland said:
    The other factor to consider is that BGS controls recent releases. So with every year that passes I suspect that gap will close a little bit as the new shiny megafractorsplosiondufextrophylaser parallels get sent to BGS and the dwindling vintage stock gets sent to PSA.

    As long as PSA helps grow segments like Pokemon I have to disagree. Joe mentioned on Twitter a month or so ago they had graded 350k Pokemon cards in a very short period of time.

    I ran a search maybe two years ago and wrestling which is tiny had grown from a less than 500 in 2010 when I started submitting them to over 20,000.

    This is one of the reasons PSA has continued to grow.

  • ReggieClevelandReggieCleveland Posts: 3,818 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Wait, what are we talking about? Are we talking about the sports card market or the future of PSA as a company? I'm not sure where Pokemon fits into the sports card market conversation.

  • @Dpeck100 said:

    @ReggieCleveland said:
    Perhaps your higher number was including autographed memorabilia?

    Both will be inflated by autos with so many cards in holders that are signed.

    This is a pointless exercise other than to show a massive disparity in the number of items authenticated by the various companies.

    There is no way to do an Apples to Apples comparison.

    10% of all BVG listings have BGS in them too.

    I took the time to search ebay for BVG listings
    the 1st 100 listings that were BVG did NOT show BGS also

    although the funny thing was, some PSA listings DID include BVG
    I guess they thought it was worth while

  • giorgio11giorgio11 Posts: 3,921 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I would not be surprised to hear that Magic the Gathering cards were in there too with Pokemon. I cannot believe how deep some people are into that game which I can't even understand (and don't want to spend the time to understand).

    Kind regards,

    George

    VDBCoins.com Our Registry Sets Many successful BSTs; pls ask.
  • Dpeck100Dpeck100 Posts: 10,912 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @ReggieCleveland said:
    Wait, what are we talking about? Are we talking about the sports card market or the future of PSA as a company? I'm not sure where Pokemon fits into the sports card market conversation.

    Graded trading cards.

  • LarkinCollectorLarkinCollector Posts: 8,975 ✭✭✭✭✭

    BVG (Sports Trading Cards category only): 14,171
    Same search w/ '-bgs' added: 12,829

    9.5% of BVG listings have BGS in the title as well.

  • ReggieClevelandReggieCleveland Posts: 3,818 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Dpeck100 said:

    @ReggieCleveland said:
    Wait, what are we talking about? Are we talking about the sports card market or the future of PSA as a company? I'm not sure where Pokemon fits into the sports card market conversation.

    Graded trading cards.

    When did we move from the sports card market to graded trading cards? I missed that.

  • I guess if someone really cares enough and has the time, they can check PSA's and Beckett's pop report for all non sport items, to get an apple vs. apple count, to see which has how many sports cards vs. non sport & memorabilia

    good luck

  • PSA is easy enough
    1,500,000+ non sport cards
    beckett is tough to get the info

  • Dpeck100Dpeck100 Posts: 10,912 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November 2, 2017 1:51PM

    @ReggieCleveland said:

    @Dpeck100 said:

    @ReggieCleveland said:
    Wait, what are we talking about? Are we talking about the sports card market or the future of PSA as a company? I'm not sure where Pokemon fits into the sports card market conversation.

    Graded trading cards.

    When did we move from the sports card market to graded trading cards? I missed that.

    Both PSA and BGS grade various genres of trading cards. Both want your submissions regardless of the image on the front. PSA grades 9 out of 10 cards submitted to third party graders. Revenue is revenue. My position has always been the same. In 2010 when I decided Wrestling cards needed to be graded I did a lot of research in advance of choosing who to send my cards to and start my venture. I searched completed sales of sports cards and looked at loads of non sport sets and determined the right path was PSA. The most expensive cards in the world were graded by them and they were the clear leader when reviewing EBay listings. Obviously my choice paid off handsomely. You can't break down grading firms by sport or genre. At the end of the day all that matters is who is grading more and this translates into greater demand for cards in those holders.

  • HighGradeLegendsHighGradeLegends Posts: 1,693 ✭✭✭✭

    @Dpeck100 said:

    @ReggieCleveland said:

    @Dpeck100 said:

    @ReggieCleveland said:
    Wait, what are we talking about? Are we talking about the sports card market or the future of PSA as a company? I'm not sure where Pokemon fits into the sports card market conversation.

    Graded trading cards.

    When did we move from the sports card market to graded trading cards? I missed that.

    Both PSA and BGS grade various genres of trading cards. Both want your submissions regardless of the image on the front. PSA grades 9 out of 10 cards submitted to third party graders. Revenue is revenue. My position has always been the same. In 2010 when I decided Wrestling cards needed to be graded I did a lot of research in advance of choosing who to send my cards to and start my venture. I searched completed sales of sports cards and looked at loads of non sport sets and determined the right path was PSA. The most expensive cards in the world were graded by them and they were the clear leader when reviewing EBay listings. Obviously my choice paid off handsomely. You can't break down grading firms by sport or genre. At the end of the day all that matters is who is grading more and this translates into greater demand for cards in those holders.

    This

  • I know that this is titled "Sports Card Market Overall" but my feeling is that Magic the Gathering and Pokemon high-end cards will outperform similarly priced sports cards over the next 5-7 years.

    Joe

    IG: goatcollectibles23

    The biggest lesson I've learned in this hobby, and in life, is that if you have a strong conviction, you owe it to yourself to see it through. Don't sell yourself, or your investments, short. Unless the facts change. Then sell it all.
  • lahmejoonlahmejoon Posts: 1,758 ✭✭✭✭

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