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Sports Card Market Overall
giorgio11
Posts: 3,821 ✭✭✭✭✭
I know absolutely nothing about the sports cards market but just wondered how it is overall. How would you longtime veteran collectors/dealers characterize it? It seems I heard that 10-15 years ago the market tanked. Was that just for new/modern issues since, say, 1980 or some other date? I'm sure my ignorance is showing by now ... It is a bifurcated market like coins, where a lot of modern stuff is overgraded and overpriced/subject to selloffs, and where genuinely rare stuff is rare, pricey, in-demand and likely to stay that way?
I was just wondering since I am so deep in coins, is there a relation between the two.
Kind regards,
George
VDBCoins.com Our Registry Sets Many successful BSTs; pls ask.
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Hi George
The crash that occurred in the sports card market in the early 2000s was centered specifically around cards produced in the 1980s and 1990s. The actual supply of the cards produced was much greater than previous sets and as collectors began to realize how many of these cards were out there, prices dropped dramatically. This was in part due to the advent of the internet and more price/supply transparency via marketplaces like eBay. This 80s and 90s glut in supply is pejoratively known as the 'junk wax' era.
The vintage market (pre 1980s) is arguably stronger than ever. High end examples of the hobby's most coveted cards have sold at record levels in the past 5 years.
The modern card market (2000-Present) is a complicated one. Where previously there were only 5-10 sets a year, there were probably 40ish (someone correct me if I'm wrong) different products coming out every year at one point. This eventually led to a lot of consolidation in the industry as many card manufacturers are no longer in business and most sports now have one exclusive manufacturer (Topps - baseball, Panini- football and basketball). Rarity is still a big driver in modern card prices. Low #d autographed rookies of premier stars command some of the highest prices in the modern card market.
Hope that helps a bit.
Tommy
Very informative post @TommyB23 and I thank you for going to the trouble of explaining the market to a rookie like me!
Kind regards,
George
The importance of the market for baseball cards often depends on one's goals and reasons for collecting them in the first place.
Bowman Baseball -1948-1955
Fleer Baseball-1923, 1959-2007
Al
so does that mean the 80's and 90's cards are less valuable? There are so many amazing players like Jordan, Barkely, Malone, Isaiah, etc.
What a bummer cuz that's when I started following sports and collecting.
The original answer was more directed to baseball I believe. The market in the 1980s is likely the strongest for basketball and football had 3 or its best years in 1980, 84 and 86. As a matter of fact 1986 is probably the best year overall for all of sports cards so I wouldn't say the 1980s are less valuable especially for basketball players like you listed.
Join the Rookie stars on top PSA registry today:
1980-1989 Cello Packs - Rookies
It's very strong for certain rookie cards in higher grades. If I were collecting purely for investment purposes, I would only collect rookie cards. That being said, many other cards have gone up too. Especially when the population is less than 20 cards for a star player and no cards are graded higher. 6 years ago, I could have considered purchasing a Banks or Aaron rookie in PSA 8 condition. I can no longer consider it. 5 years ago, I was 2nd highest bidder on a PSA 7 Aaron rookie and the card went for about $1,900. I would be looking at $6,000 for that same card today and that's not happening.
Thanks @TheMick and @rtimmer, @bishop and @hslice for your comments. Very interesting! I just bid on my first card, a Nolan Ryan rookie card. I won't win it, but that's OK.
Kind regards,
George
Is there one "preferred" grading firm? Do sports cards collectors have a Registry like those at PCGS and NGC for coins? I see that PSA is owned by our hosts ... does PSA have an equally good reputation for grading as does PCGS?
Any other market comments welcomed ...
Kind regards,
George
If I were collecting purely for investment purposes I'd have my head examined. Sports collectibles are a dumpster fire of an investment. I'd rather wear poison ivy boxer briefs.
I have been very pleased with the performance of my cards over the years. They have brought me great enjoyment and could be sold for more than I have in them so a win win.
This here. I don't know how anyone around in the height of the market of the early/mid 90's could think cards are a smart investment. Everyone got burned on 90% of what they bought, and history will just repeat itself with all the "hot players" today who's cards are supposedly selling for even higher prices.
If you are buying Mike Trout, Aaron Judge, Clayton Kershaw(or Brady, or Labron James, or Steph, or any other hot player) at $100+ expecting it to be a good future "investment", well, its not. Would you buy my 1984 Fleer Darryl Strawberry for $120? Didn't think so. And I said "$100+"; much of this new stuff is priced much higher and in four digits! There is certainly a niche for higher grade vintage cards, but the rest of the market is very volatile, subject to manipulation and not something you'd stick money into for the long term.
The "crash" of the 80's/90's card prices wasn't just about the supply - there's no demand either. Everybody who collected during that era has those cards. New collectors coming into the market aren't very interested, and those who are do not constitute a large enough group to drive prices. Five, eight, ten.. years from now, who will care about retired players from the 2000's to 2010's? Who will be coming into the market to buy those players? Few people.
My advice: Buy what you like at a price you can live with and erase the word "investment" from your sports collectibles vocabulary.
I actively collect Kirby Puckett. I have collections of Michael Jordan, Emmitt Smith, Roberto Clemente, Dwight Gooden, Tom Seaver, Errict Rhett and Evan Longoria.
PSA has over 90% of the market share of new submissions so that would certainly qualify as a preferred grader.
Yes there is an active registry with over 125,000 registered sets.
If you grade 9 out of 10 cards submitted to third party authenticators I think it is fair to say you have a very good reputation.
If you are buying Mike Trout, Aaron Judge, Clayton Kershaw(or Brady, or Labron James, or Steph, or any other hot player) at $100+ expecting it to be a good future "investment", well, its not. Would you buy my 1984 Fleer Darryl Strawberry for $120? __
But, I wouldn't mind buying all of your 2000 SP Authentic Brady's at your 2000 price while he was riding the pine. And I'll take any of your 86 Fleer Jordan PSA 9 at 2013 prices. The fact is that the right cards, have been a terrific investment, while the wrong ones have been terrible. Same could be said of stocks and even housing.
What lightening boy said!!
beanie babies were a horrible investment for most but for a few that bought and sold at the right time they were great
I'm not talking about looking in hindsight and wishing you would have bought something in the past to sell at today's supposed prices. I said FUTURE investment at TODAY'S prices. Sure, who doesn't wish they had bought Brady or Trout(or others) long ago when the prices were legit(heck, C. Kershaw 2008 Topps Update was listed at $8 in 04/2014 - people are trying to get $130-$200 for it - total nonsense). The bulk of those cards will not be selling for those price 5, 8, 10 years from now. Basketball has the best chance of holding some value due to international appeal and demand, but prices for Baseball and Football players will inevitably decline those who bought the cards as investments at the top of the market are trying to get any dollar they can out of them.
I actively collect Kirby Puckett. I have collections of Michael Jordan, Emmitt Smith, Roberto Clemente, Dwight Gooden, Tom Seaver, Errict Rhett and Evan Longoria.
You can cherry pick any sportscard you want from the last 10-20 years, it will be minuscule fraction of a cherry picked financial investment.
Collect what you like and enjoy it. If you happen to make a few dollars when you cash out down the road, that's just lucky gravy.
ETA: I'm totally starting a punk rock band and calling us Lucky Gravy.
I think I'll do better with Chinese Internet stocks. No, seriously! I've got some serious gains in BABA, TCEHY, WB. And coins, which I know far more about!
Still, as @ReggieCleveland suggests, it might be nice to have rookie card or two! (And speaking as a native Texan, it also helps that I like Nolan Ryan as a player and as a person.)
Kind regards,
George
It just boils down to the same theory.... you can pick 10 of anything today to invest in and you might strike out on 9 of them. Whether it's stocks or cards. The key is you have to be willing to fail if your just trying to invest over just collecting for the fun of it.
And one more thing.... I do agree that a lot of these newer cards with the glitz and glamour may not be worth as much in 5-10 years I do think ones that have a legit print run limit like a Brady SP RC for example will hold their value
In my view if you are buying cards for investment you need to be very open to self submitting cards. I read all of the time that people won't buy cards that aren't already graded and that is certainly a fine way to collect but the real action is when you become the house. When you buy a card that has already been graded in most cases there is mark up. You want to be the one enjoying the mark up. Not every purchase will be a winner but the ones that are should more than make up for the ones that aren't. The nice thing is every once in a while you will hit a home run and you can make quite a few bad buys and still come out on top.
I think once the economy goes into a recession you'll see most of modern market (cards from the last 20 years) take a big hit. Lots of people buy into breaks or speculate on modern cards that don't have the requisite income. Some things will keep value, most won't . I also think the next 20 or so is when the window closes for trading cards as an investment. That's my pessimistic view. Buy what makes you happy and, as always, try to buy a dollar for fifty cents.
This
I disagree. True if the economy goes in the dumper they will take a big hit but so would any "investment" whether it be stocks, etc. If that were the case, a 51 Bowman Mantle wouldn't be a gazillion dollars or a high grade 86 Jordan. The greatest players will always have a high demand. Lets say the economy is strong in 2027. If Trout continues on the path he is heading I would think his RC cards will hold value or increase. Judge is a modern day Kevin Maas, imho- so no way his RC's are . Kershaw is good but don't know if he is an all-time great, so no. Brady, really? You think his RC's cards are not going to hold value or inrease? LeBron, by the time he retires, he will be the 2nd (if not 1st) greatest player to ever play basketball. To me, he's in the same category as Jordan and Brady. His RC's cards may not demand as high a price as in 2027 as Jordans do today but they will go up in value. And while Curry is great, he is just an all time great 3Pt shooter. I doubt he will be an all time great (Save that for another discussion) but his RC's may hold value.
This is just my opinion. Call me naive but thats how I see it.
you had me until the Curry analogy. just an all time great 3pt shooter; are you kidden?? the game is called basketball; and the object is to put the ball in the hoop. Curry happens to be the best ever at this; e...v....e....r. No-one will have shoot the ball better than him when he retires. He'll have as many rings as LeBron at the end of this season.
Collecting Unopened from '72-'83; mostly BBCE certified boxes/cases/racks.
Prefer to buy in bulk.
Why isn’t anyone adding in the great Lionel Messi to the discussion? Probably because most of the board here doesn’t participate in collecting soccer cards let alone watching it. I’ve heard many of you over time saying how boring it is, yet all our kids around the world are playing it more than any other sport. It’s a great sport once you understand it.
I wouldn’t be surprised if his Messi’s best rookie card blows up in the short term along with some of the other greats like Ronaldo and Neymar...soccer may be the next big thing in our world of card collecting. Messi’s rookie card for example was made in Spain by Panini and is incredibly scarce it was limited not over produced like all the modern stuff today. BGS graded about 200 with 30 or so being 9.5s and PSA is 17 of 92...small numbers for a monster player and what I think soon to be a monster card.
Agreed on popularity of Futbol. I've posted on a lot of threads here about the strength of modern soccer RC's like Messi & Ronaldo. Messi is far and away undisputed the most popular athlete in the world, and that is enough to carry the value of his cards despite not having as much fame in North America as athletes from the Big 4 sports.
I think you nailed it, Dpeck! I happily scoop up ungraded cards and am sometimes willing to overpay if a raw card looks good enough to have a shot at a 10, especially on guys I know are hot but don't personally collect. Way more winners than losers and some cards that sell for 250-300 raw, even modern, sell for 800-1000 as PSA 10s!
I could be wrong, but futbol is the most popular sport in the world because it requires only a ball, and not even footwear. It's accessible to almost anyone. I just don't see those people buying high end sports cards.
What people? Also...it does require more than what you suggest and it’s not why it’s popular..just don’t feel like explaining it as based on your analysis that can be said for basketball. Thx.
Messi's rookie has already exploded. Ronaldo too. For modern cards they are priced very strongly.
Hiya George
I would like to ask the same question.
The only thing I know about coins?
They go into vending machines.
How's it been if someone were looking for some kind of ROI?
What performs better US coins or foreign (I'm guessing it depends on the century for foreign?)
On a related note, I often wonder how bad the drop will be on autographed cards and autographed memorabilia in general. I love collecting Orioles stuff but am not planning on retiring on it. How many autographs have Cal Ripken Jr and Brooks Robinson signed over the years? I'm still surprised at the prices they command today...
I once joked that you could rename a "What is a good investment?" thread "What do you collect?"
Everybody believes that they're ahead of the curve and that the thing that they've "found" is going to explode because of reasons A, B, C, and D. Nobody wants to believe that they're putting hard earned money into what will essentially turn out to be zero sum outcome (or worse). It's completely natural. Sometimes obscure stuff is obscure because the masses aren't interested, not because the masses don't know about it.
I realize I'm going to get torn to shreds now because I'm pooping in everyone's soup but it's tough love. And I love you all. Real love. Man love. Not that fly by night love we find behind the 7-11 after a long night of clubbing.
I've put $32,008.76 into my Brady RC PSA 9 collection and using eBay sold prices it is worth $83,329.26 now and that is with 24 of the cards I have purchased not having an eBay sale in the last 12 months.
I don't believe cards should be considered an investment but the idea that they can't be is nonsense. Cards have risks that other investments do not but they have the ability to appreciate quickly due simply to performance on the field as well.
All investments have risks, if you bought the S&P in 2000 you would be looking at a 3% annualized return today. If you bought in 2007 it would be 5%. That is not particularly good. If you had bought the S&P in 2000 you would have been underwater until 2012 on your investment. If you had bought $50k in Brady RC cards in 2000 instead you could retire.
In the end collect what you enjoy. As for investing be diversified and remember taxes in the US can only go up in the long term regardless of what politicians are saying today. The economic picture in the next 20-30 years is terrifying from a government (both state and federal) liability perspective and politicians are going to get money one way or another.
Robb
Lebron's cards may end up similar to Barry Bonds.He's alienated a lot of his fans lately with his attitude and political views
Well, I would say overall the U.S. market has performed better, but there are well-developed markets for rare British, Chinese, Japanese, and other foreign coins. A lot of Asian buyers are dipping their toes into the U.S., British, and other coin markets. In terms of ROI, just like sports cards, I would not call coins an "investment" in the strictest sense of that term, i.e. something that produces regular and predictable returns (like bonds). Having said that, accurately graded (think PCGS- and/or NGC-certified coins, or coins bought from a long-established dealer who is also an excellent grader, and whom you trust) and truly rare coins (18th-/19th-century copper-silver-gold type coins, rare-date gold and silver) have produced exceptional returns when held for a sufficient number of years (and that number can vary because there are market cycles in coins like every other area of collecting, I suppose).
I cataloged (almost exclusively) U.S. coins for 12+ years for Heritage Auctions, the world's largest numismatic auctioneer, before retiring from that, and got a good feel for some of the international trends as they related to U.S. coinage, and I have dealt in U.S. coins for 50+ years. I think the strong market for U.S. coins is in part due to a lot of younger overseas buyers snapping up classic rarities and being increasingly strong long-term holders of those coins.
I hope this helps answer your question to some degree, although I'm sure lots of other coin dealers would add their own perspectives to my response.
I'm not trying to drum up business here, but I would say that if any collectors here want to provide me with a coins want list or to talk with me for some personal recommendations, I do work hard to buy great coins at reasonable prices for my clients. I have a few long-term customers who have put together complete sets of Morgan dollars, Franklin halves, and other great collections strictly from coins I have bought for them. My motto has always been "life is too short to buy ugly coins" and if I don't like it, I don't buy it regardless of the price. Eye appeal is everything in the rare coin market; price is secondary.
Thanks to all of you who are helping to educate me on the sports card markets.
Kind regards,
George
What do you mean "those people"?
And, you are. In every sense of the word.
Although the product after 1980 started taking a nose dive I would say that you would be safe with product prior to 1987 as that is when the hoarding began along with over production.The 80 sets I own are all prior to 1985, only because I like the cards.
5 years ago right after my wife's passing I sold my house which was too big for me and moved into a smaller home and in the process tried to give away all the post 85 cards to a charity or give them away at a riddiculas
low price ,however I ended up giving and paying a junk man to take them away maybe 50 to 60 thousand cards.
Be safe go with pre 80 product.Stay away from the glossy stuff of the recent era.
Wow @fiveniner that really hurts! Another contrast with the coin market ... at least I can tote my stuff to a CoinStar machine if all else fails (so far I have avoided that ... but do ya wanna buy a bunch of 1943 steel cents? kidding).
Kind regards,
George
This is an interesting thread. I appreciate everyone's opinions. I have to admit, I'm one of the new collectors that's overspending on rookie cards...Judge, Kershaw, Trout, Jayson Tatum, Kawhi Leonard.
I agree @hslice, I am enjoying hearing folks' opinions on the market. Reading some of the other threads I have a question, what is BCCE (if I got that right) and why would someone send cards to it? (Numismatics has its abundant share of TLAs and FLAs as well
)
I hope y'all are all enjoying the World Series as well ....
Kind regards,
George
I've been noticing lately that 70s 80s card prices are softening a lot. Particularly 1986 fleer basketball even for psa 10 rookies. Not so much with psa 10 rookies in other sports but definitely in 9 and lower.
Like two years ago I started a project where I went through the entire decade of the 1980s and created a spreadsheet of all the cards I wanted as a kid. I had a cup of coffee with '86 Topps, won ROY with '87 Topps, and really saw my career explode in 1988 and 1989. So anyway, I created this mega list. Anything and everything I wanted as a kid, followed by all it's PSA pop report info for grades 8, 9, and 10. It was a massive undertaking and I think it concluded with around 400 cards. You name it -- Ripken, Clemens, Rickey, Gwynn rookies, sure, but also Canseco rookies, Wally Joyner, Kevin Maas, Gregg Jefferies, Cecil Fielder, Kevin Seitzer, seriously, you name it. All of them in PSA 10. Not just rookies but any card that had any kind of importance to me as a kid so even the '88 Topps Al Leiter errors, the '88 Topps McGwire Record Breakers white triangle error/correct, I even grabbed an '88 Score Glossy Matt Nokes PSA 10 because I loved the composition of the photo and came to realize that Score did a phenomenal job that year of photography. Anyway, as you can imagine, a huge undertaking.
It was a blast to do, probably the most fun I've ever had in the hobby since I was a kid. But I also learned a lot about rarity and the 1980s. There are some truly rare (albeit condition rarity) cards from the 1980s. Not quite Rickey rookie rare but rarer than some big 70s rookies rare. Well, like a horse's patooty, I started a thread here and talked all about it. Shared photos of all my pickups, we had a grand old time. Then I took a break from the hobby, probably at least a year and half, maybe closer to two years. I just came back a few months ago.
I start perusing ebay like I always used to do and suddenly the cards that I had pointed out were rare are selling for $400 instead of $100, or $800 instead of $400. Lots of other examples too that are smaller -- $25 cards now $75, $100 cards now $250. The dang '87 OPC Bonds went from $450 to like $2,600! And these aren't even pre-1985, they're all post-1985. Freakin Canseco rated rookie doubled. Are you kidding me? Canseco?
I believe I have a staunch record of collecting for enjoyment and not for investment (Matt Nokes, people!) but the most common mistake I see people make in all of these silly investment threads is that they try to find the product that is going to increase in price. No one ever stops to ask where are we going to see an influx of collectors? Yeah, there was a billion of everything produced in the late-80s but that time period also saw an explosion of child collectors the likes of which the hobby had never seen before or since. It was a cultural phenomenon. Those child collectors haven't gotten to the point where they're at their peak earning years yet. They haven't seen their kids off and hit the point where most return to the hobby seeking nostalgia. They don't have a lot of disposable income yet. Look, I am in NO WAY saying stock up on '89 Topps wax boxes. I'm simply saying I think the hobby is going to see something happen in the next 10 years that we've never seen before. Perhaps the influx come back and all head to prewar and/or vintage. Perhaps they come back and the majority head to non-baseball sportscards. I honestly have absolutely no idea. I'm just saying.
The more you know.....
[Star shoots across the screen]
Don't get me wrong I love Steph Curry and collect his cards but I put all future values to the "wife test". Does a player transcend his sport to where my wife has heard of him(Not for the wrong reasons eg Tiger Woods)? My wife knows NOTHING about sports. I can ask my wife who Lebron, Kobe, Jordan, Brady, or Jeter is and she knows. If I asked her who Steph Curry is I doubt she would know. Not yet anyway. Curry is a Hall of Famer. No doubt about it. The best shooter in history, But he is not an all time great.
I know it is a stupid "test" but that is how I do it. I really enjoy this board. Not trying to be mean towards anyone. It's just my opinion.
Well George, you got lots of answers, a few informative, a few off topic, and some characters with criticism of what others collect. I started collecting coins at an early age in the mid 60's. I also collected and preferred baseball card collecting. The coins were supposed to be an investment according to dad, and the cards were just fun. I could still tell you most of the starting lie ups for most teams from the 60's, just by studying the cards. Condition was nothing back then. Dad was right, my coins have done well, but the cards were fun. I have went back and completed those card sets. Most of my coins were in VG-EF, so there were never really investment grade specimens. Still, I enjoy both collections and continue to purchase graded cards and occasionally participate in group buys here on this site. BBCE is the supporter of our group buying here on the forum. He (Steve) is one of the most trusted purchasers and sellers of unopened cards (cases, boxes, packs). Anyway, enjoyed your thread here and I would say collect what you like. You already know this as I am sure you have your special interest in the coin field.
John
To be honest, no direction, but...
1966-69 Topps EX+
1975 minis NrMt Kelloggs PSA 9
All Topps Heritage-Master Sets
WOW! What a discussion.
This is why I collect vintage (pre 80’s) unopened packs.
I don’t have to pick and choose which player(s) I feel will
be a good investment since there have been countless stars
and rookies from the 50’s, 60’s and 70’s worth collecting
and investing in. That’s not to say the 80’s through modern
day players are not worth collecting. For me, the value is still
in the original factory sealed wax and cello packs from years
gone by that holds my interest. I feel that part of our sport card
market overall is strong and always will be. Supply is low and
demand will remain high for many years to come. I can’t imagine
collectors 40 and 50 years from now not knowing who Mantle,
Mays, Aaron, Clemente, Koufax, Maris, etc are and wouldn’t
be thrilled to own (or open) a pack from those era’s that may have
any one of their cards inside.
Thanks for the post George.....it’s been an interesting read.
Out of curiosity, do you open the packs or keep them the way you bought them? I know there is a strong demand for unopened but don't know if people open the packs or not.
Even if I could afford that luxury, there are many packs I wouldn’t open simply because there is so much more value in the factory sealed pack itself than the odds of pulling a MINT star card worthy of eliminating yet one more vintage rarity. I have opened a few in the past. The last two were a 1959 Topps Football Cello and a 1961 Topps Baseball Cello after much peer pressure and several healthy shots of Grand Marnier. (Nectar of the Gods by the way)....
I did have multiples of both, so there wasn’t the concern of complete annihilation of either year.
But, as a rule, I typically keep vintage packs unopened, send to PSA for authentication and grading and continue my quest for more. It’s a sickness and clearly I need help!