Is the 1931-S Lincoln cent vastly over-rated and over-valued?

jmlanzaf

It's a $100 coin even in circulated condition. It has a mintage of 866,000 with a near 100% survival rate with a population of hundreds of thousands of UNC coins.

http://www.pcgscoinfacts.com/Coin/Detail/2620

Mark

I've wanted a 31-S cent for only a decade or several. But, an EU cent...I've wanted one of those for a solid week!

Shamika

Is the 1931-S Lincoln cent vastly over-rated and over-valued? 30 years ago I would have said no. Finding one at local coin shops and the coin show I would attend annually was very difficult. But today they seem to be quite common so I want to say "yes".

jmlanzaf

@Mark said:
I've wanted a 31-S cent for only a decade or several. But, an EU cent...I've wanted one of those for a solid week!

LOL. Not really my point, but touche'

If you've wanted one for a decade, I assume it's price that stops you, not availability. So, is that a vote for over-priced?

EagleEye

@Shamika said:
Is the 1931-S Lincoln cent vastly over-rated and over-valued? 30 years ago I would have said no. Finding one at local coin shops and the coin show I would attend annually was very difficult. But today they seem to be quite common so I want to say "yes".

This is a classic example of the internet driving scarcity down. It used to be that you had to buy the 1931-s since you had no chance of finding one in change. Then it was the key date and was always in demand by dealers as one of the few dates that had real demand. Prices kept rising. It is called local scarcity. The internet has wiped out any local scarcity and they are now as easy to find as any other cent, although no one is given them away. Will this ease of locating one drive the price down? Only if sellers are desperate to sell cheaper and cheaper to attract buyers. There are numerous buyers at the current levels. I recently had a roll of XFs and they found ready buyers at the $75 level.

Rexford

There's no such thing as overrated, underrated, overvalued, or undervalued. A coin is worth what people are willing to pay. That is how this market functions.

PTVETTER

they may have a high survival rate, but is is across all grades and condition.
therefore I feel its not overrated or over priced.

jmlanzaf

@Rexford said:
There's no such thing as overrated, underrated, overvalued, or undervalued. A coin is worth what people are willing to pay. That is how this market functions.

That assumes efficient market theory applies. It is not necessarily true in the coin market when all transactions are mediated by price guides. Do we get to $100 because of a free, open market or because Greysheet or Redbook or PCGS value guide tell us we're supposed to?

jmlanzaf

@PTVETTER said:
they may have a high survival rate, but is is across all grades and condition.
therefore I feel its not overrated or over priced.

It was hoarded. Hundreds of thousands of UNCs are out there. It may well be more common in UNC than circ.

jmlanzaf

@EagleEye said:

@Shamika said:
Is the 1931-S Lincoln cent vastly over-rated and over-valued? 30 years ago I would have said no. Finding one at local coin shops and the coin show I would attend annually was very difficult. But today they seem to be quite common so I want to say "yes".

This is a classic example of the internet driving scarcity down. It used to be that you had to buy the 1931-s since you had no chance of finding one in change. Then it was the key date and was always in demand by dealers as one of the few dates that had real demand. Prices kept rising. It is called local scarcity. The internet has wiped out any local scarcity and they are now as easy to find as any other cent, although no one is given them away. Will this ease of locating one drive the price down? Only if sellers are desperate to sell cheaper and cheaper to attract buyers. There are numerous buyers at the current levels. I recently had a roll of XFs and they found ready buyers at the $75 level.

Yes, interesting analysis.

It does make one wonder about how/whether prices respond to actual market forces. I won't pick on any particular publication, but when the "value sheet" tells the dealer it's $100 coin and he pays $80 for it then he wants to sell it for $100 to a customer who read the same sheet and assumes he's supposed to pay $100 for the coin.

I think there are two good recent examples of slow response of the "value sheets" to prices. 1909 Indian cents went way up, probably in response to someone using them for a 1909-2009 cent promotion. It's now 8 years later and the published prices are just getting back down to where the coins actually sell.

Bulk barber prices are another good example. They went up but have been very slow to come down even though it is dang near impossible to sell avg circ at "value sheet" prices.

Rexford

@jmlanzaf said:

@Rexford said:
There's no such thing as overrated, underrated, overvalued, or undervalued. A coin is worth what people are willing to pay. That is how this market functions.

That assumes efficient market theory applies. It is not necessarily true in the coin market when all transactions are mediated by price guides. Do we get to $100 because of a free, open market or because Greysheet or Redbook or PCGS value guide tell us we're supposed to?

The origins of peoples' perceptions of value don't matter.

jmlanzaf

@Rexford said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@Rexford said:
There's no such thing as overrated, underrated, overvalued, or undervalued. A coin is worth what people are willing to pay. That is how this market functions.

That assumes efficient market theory applies. It is not necessarily true in the coin market when all transactions are mediated by price guides. Do we get to $100 because of a free, open market or because Greysheet or Redbook or PCGS value guide tell us we're supposed to?

The origins of peoples' perceptions of value don't matter.

Interesting...I want to say "maybe".

You are right that if we all think it's $100 coin because the Pope says it's $100 coin, then perception is reality.

On the other hand, that is NOT a free market. It's an information dictatorship. An effective monopoly.

From a pricing standpoint, I want to agree with you.

On the other hand, it somewhat makes us the fool, doesn't it? Our desire to pay isn't determined by our desire, it is thrust upon us by a "greater power". I don't think we would tolerate this in almost any other venue of our lives.

jmlanzaf

Let's assume a nice round number of 300,000 for the number of surviving UNCs. Might be low, but it's in the ball park. Are there 300,000 Lincoln collectors? Does it have enough cachet that even people who aren't "Lincoln collectors" would want to own one?

Rexford

@jmlanzaf said:
Interesting...I want to say "maybe".

You are right that if we all think it's $100 coin because the Pope says it's $100 coin, then perception is reality.

On the other hand, that is NOT a free market. It's an information dictatorship. An effective monopoly.

From a pricing standpoint, I want to agree with you.

On the other hand, it somewhat makes us the fool, doesn't it? Our desire to pay isn't determined by our desire, it is thrust upon us by a "greater power". I don't think we would tolerate this in almost any other venue of our lives.

It is your choice to value any coin any way you want, regardless of price guides or anything else. If you aren't willing to pay the same amount for a coin that many people would, that doesn't make the common value overpriced and doesn't the amount you would pay underpriced. The "true" value of any coin is the face value or melt value (at least if you accept those values as a standard), so technically all valuations anyone has over that number are "overvalued," and that's the only sense in which I would use that term.

If you perceive a coin that most people would buy for $100 to have a value of $60, you don't have to buy it. If you think that you really need it and buy it even though it goes against your sense of value because you know you won't be able to find a seller who also values it at $60, then you really do value the coin at $100 because that is how much you will pay for it.

I don't consider us fools for looking to price guides for value. Price guides are a way to mediate the market. Think about it this way: with the absence of all external influence, including price guides, the opinions of other collectors, past auction records, etc, a very rich man might be willing to pay $1000 for a coin (and thus value it at $1000) while a lesser off man might pay $100 (thus valuing it at $100). Neither of these values are anything other than the result of the importance the buyer places on the coin plus the importance they place on their money. Price guides discard much of this and bring all buyers to a reasonably similar standpoint so that transactions can actually be made without vast differences of opinion between buyers and sellers [edit: TPG grading does this as well].

If a buyer or a seller sticks to the exact numbers within a price guide, without any interjection of their own individual sense of value, they are no closer to the "real" value of a coin than someone who bases value solely on their own perception.

dbldie55

This reminds me of watching the coin shows on TV.

FullStrike

Recently I saw a Video where someone tried to sell a 1 oz Gold Maple Leaf to people out on the Street , near a Coin Shop. He tried all sorts of angles. Showed them the $50 value on the reverse, asked for $50. No takers at $50 so he offered it for $20 .... no takers. He even offered it to one Lady for her half full cup of Starbucks... no luck.

Finally the guy.pointed out the Coin Shop and offered to let the people buy from him and go ask for a valuation at the Coin Shop. No one would take a full ounce of Gold at a give away price.

I'd bet if the guy offered a slabbed 1931-S Lincoln for $1 , very few people would show a glimmer of interest.

There's very few of even us Coin Nerds that are interested in 1931-S Lincolns.

Ronyahski

@jmlanzaf said:
Let's assume a nice round number of 300,000 for the number of surviving UNCs. Might be low, but it's in the ball park. Are there 300,000 Lincoln collectors? Does it have enough cachet that even people who aren't "Lincoln collectors" would want to own one?

No and No. (But what evidence do you have that hundreds of thousands of Uncs are out there.)

Which is why I wanted to own one, but one that stuck out from the crowd.

BuffaloIronTail

Some of them circulated. I bought an EF-40 back in the 1970's for $40.00. Since then I've seen countless numbers of not so nice looking UNCS at a coin shop I hang out at.

Truth is, 31-S is not so easy to find Gem MS-65. They languished around in bags and rolls for awhile because of the depression. The color is a little off, and they're kinda spotty. Of course they were wildly hoarded, a guy named Sharlack was said to have 200.000 of them.

But it is what it is......the low mintage, like it's cousin the 1931-S Buffalo, is the hook.

Guess there's not enough hungry fish swimming around.............

Pete

BruceS

@FullStrike said:
Recently I saw a Video where someone tried to sell a 1 oz Gold Maple Leaf to people out on the Street , near a Coin Shop. He tried all sorts of angles. Showed them the $50 value on the reverse, asked for $50. No takers at $50 so he offered it for $20 .... no takers. He even offered it to one Lady for her half full cup of Starbucks... no luck.

Finally the guy.pointed out the Coin Shop and offered to let the people buy from him and go ask for a valuation at the Coin Shop. No one would take a full ounce of Gold at a give away price.

I'd bet if the guy offered a slabbed 1931-S Lincoln for $1 , very few people would show a glimmer of interest.

There's very few of even us Coin Nerds that are interested in 1931-S Lincolns.

I've seen numerous videos of the same guy trying to give away a solid gold coin or a candy bar. Right in front of a pawn shop (where they could go in and verify the coin was real) and had zero takers. Just goes to show that the average Joe doesn't have a clue. Or on the other hand people just dont trust strangers with candy. Look it up it's hilarious

cameonut2011

I think it is overrated much like the 1909 s vdb; however, if you wanted to be technical, I could make the same argument for almost all 20th-century issues and a good number of post Cvil War 19th-century issues.

BillDugan1959

@jmlanzaf said:
Let's assume a nice round number of 300,000 for the number of surviving UNCs. Might be low, but it's in the ball park. Are there 300,000 Lincoln collectors? Does it have enough cachet that even people who aren't "Lincoln collectors" would want to own one?

I've said it a couple of times recently, but when people are no longer much collecting coin series by date and mintmark anymore, the idea of a "key" coin loses much of its force and validity.

After that, you essentially fall back to rating coins as rare, scarce and common. Where does the 1931-S Lincoln cent fall on that scale?

Some people (dealers mostly) say that eBay makes it easier to find coins, on a nation-wide basis, that were once hard to find locally. Isn't that putting the shoe in the wrong foot? Some might posit that lack of local demand forces would-be sellers onto the eBay venue.

Overdate

The CoinFacts estimate of 80,000 in all grades seems low. Estimates of coins from this period seem to assume around a 10 percent survival rate, but the 1931-S was known to be a small issue and many were saved at time of issue or preferentially pulled from circulation later.

jmlanzaf

@Overdate said:
The CoinFacts estimate of 80,000 in all grades seems low. Estimates from this period seem to assume around a 10 percent survival rate, but the 1931-S was known to be a small issue and many were saved at time of issue or preferentially pulled from circulation later.

If you read the text below, Breen tells a story of one hoard of 200,000. It's rather a topic for a separate discussion: why does PCGS CoinFacts "estimate" 80,000 survivors but states in their own text that it was heavily hoarded at the time and one man (who they name) had a hoard of 200,000 himself. ??? Not a good estimate. LOL

jmlanzaf

@BillDugan1959 said:

@jmlanzaf said:
Let's assume a nice round number of 300,000 for the number of surviving UNCs. Might be low, but it's in the ball park. Are there 300,000 Lincoln collectors? Does it have enough cachet that even people who aren't "Lincoln collectors" would want to own one?

I've said it a couple of times recently, but when people are no longer much collecting coin series by date and mintmark anymore, the idea of a "key" coin loses much of its force and validity.

After that, you essentially fall back to rating coins as rare, scarce and common. Where does the 1931-S Lincoln cent fall on that scale?

Some people (dealers mostly) say that eBay makes it easier to find coins, on a nation-wide basis, that were once hard to find locally. Isn't that putting the shoe in the wrong foot? Some might posit that lack of local demand forces would-be sellers onto the eBay venue.

All good points. In some ways, it is quite possible that there are more 31-S and even S-VDB cents available than there are collectors for them. Now, the S-VDB has cachet. Every kid who ever had a penny board wanted one. So there may be more demand for that one "key date" than the 31-S. But I don't think the 31-S has that kind of cachet, so isn't there greater supply than demand? In which case, isn't the 31-S vastly overpriced?

jmlanzaf

@cameonut2011 said:
I think it is overrated much like the 1909 s vdb; however, if you wanted to be technical, I could make the same argument for almost all 20th-century issues and a good number of post Cvil War 19th-century issues.

Agreed. But the S-VDB has cachet for anyone who ever had a penny board. Much like the 16-D dime. So I can understand people wanting just that one "key coin" because they could never find it as a kid. BUT, the secondary "key dates" don't really have that, do they? So what is driving the price?

jmlanzaf

@Ronyahski said:

@jmlanzaf said:
Let's assume a nice round number of 300,000 for the number of surviving UNCs. Might be low, but it's in the ball park. Are there 300,000 Lincoln collectors? Does it have enough cachet that even people who aren't "Lincoln collectors" would want to own one?

No and No. (But what evidence do you have that hundreds of thousands of Uncs are out there.)

Which is why I wanted to own one, but one that stuck out from the crowd.

If you read the PCGS Coinfacts - it was heavily hoarded at the time, in UNC, and ONE MAN had 200,000 in his possession at one time.

jmlanzaf

@jmlanzaf said:

@Ronyahski said:

@jmlanzaf said:
Let's assume a nice round number of 300,000 for the number of surviving UNCs. Might be low, but it's in the ball park. Are there 300,000 Lincoln collectors? Does it have enough cachet that even people who aren't "Lincoln collectors" would want to own one?

No and No. (But what evidence do you have that hundreds of thousands of Uncs are out there.)

Which is why I wanted to own one, but one that stuck out from the crowd.

If you read the PCGS Coinfacts - it was heavily hoarded at the time, in UNC, and ONE MAN had 200,000 in his possession at one time.

Pretty coin, by the way.

jmlanzaf

@BruceS said:

@FullStrike said:
Recently I saw a Video where someone tried to sell a 1 oz Gold Maple Leaf to people out on the Street , near a Coin Shop. He tried all sorts of angles. Showed them the $50 value on the reverse, asked for $50. No takers at $50 so he offered it for $20 .... no takers. He even offered it to one Lady for her half full cup of Starbucks... no luck.

Finally the guy.pointed out the Coin Shop and offered to let the people buy from him and go ask for a valuation at the Coin Shop. No one would take a full ounce of Gold at a give away price.

I'd bet if the guy offered a slabbed 1931-S Lincoln for $1 , very few people would show a glimmer of interest.

There's very few of even us Coin Nerds that are interested in 1931-S Lincolns.

I've seen numerous videos of the same guy trying to give away a solid gold coin or a candy bar. Right in front of a pawn shop (where they could go in and verify the coin was real) and had zero takers. Just goes to show that the average Joe doesn't have a clue. Or on the other hand people just dont trust strangers with candy. Look it up it's hilarious

I think it's more the trust factor than anything else. Otherwise a certain Nigerian prince actually would have $30 million that he needs help moving.

TommyType

@BruceS said:

@FullStrike said:
Recently I saw a Video where someone tried to sell a 1 oz Gold Maple Leaf to people out on the Street , near a Coin Shop. He tried all sorts of angles. Showed them the $50 value on the reverse, asked for $50. No takers at $50 so he offered it for $20 .... no takers. He even offered it to one Lady for her half full cup of Starbucks... no luck.

Finally the guy.pointed out the Coin Shop and offered to let the people buy from him and go ask for a valuation at the Coin Shop. No one would take a full ounce of Gold at a give away price.

I'd bet if the guy offered a slabbed 1931-S Lincoln for $1 , very few people would show a glimmer of interest.

There's very few of even us Coin Nerds that are interested in 1931-S Lincolns.

I've seen numerous videos of the same guy trying to give away a solid gold coin or a candy bar. Right in front of a pawn shop (where they could go in and verify the coin was real) and had zero takers. Just goes to show that the average Joe doesn't have a clue. Or on the other hand people just dont trust strangers with candy. Look it up it's hilarious

I'm not sure that it's fair to assess what "the average person knows" based on being hit up on the street by a stranger. The real thing being tested is "how much do you trust a pushy stranger, giving you an offer that's too good to be true?"

It's probably, under MOST circumstances, a good thing that people aren't jumping at the chance....

BruceS

@jmlanzaf said:

@BruceS said:

@FullStrike said:
Recently I saw a Video where someone tried to sell a 1 oz Gold Maple Leaf to people out on the Street , near a Coin Shop. He tried all sorts of angles. Showed them the $50 value on the reverse, asked for $50. No takers at $50 so he offered it for $20 .... no takers. He even offered it to one Lady for her half full cup of Starbucks... no luck.

Finally the guy.pointed out the Coin Shop and offered to let the people buy from him and go ask for a valuation at the Coin Shop. No one would take a full ounce of Gold at a give away price.

I'd bet if the guy offered a slabbed 1931-S Lincoln for $1 , very few people would show a glimmer of interest.

There's very few of even us Coin Nerds that are interested in 1931-S Lincolns.

I've seen numerous videos of the same guy trying to give away a solid gold coin or a candy bar. Right in front of a pawn shop (where they could go in and verify the coin was real) and had zero takers. Just goes to show that the average Joe doesn't have a clue. Or on the other hand people just dont trust strangers with candy. Look it up it's hilarious

I think it's more the trust factor than anything else. Otherwise a certain Nigerian prince actually would have $30 million that he needs help moving.

Kind of a bad analogy. If a guy handed you a solid gold coin in front of a pawn shop and said would you like to have this coin and you could bring it into the shop and have it checked out would you say no I'll take a Hershey bar. Lol.

Ronyahski

@jmlanzaf said:

@Ronyahski said:

@jmlanzaf said:
Let's assume a nice round number of 300,000 for the number of surviving UNCs. Might be low, but it's in the ball park. Are there 300,000 Lincoln collectors? Does it have enough cachet that even people who aren't "Lincoln collectors" would want to own one?

No and No. (But what evidence do you have that hundreds of thousands of Uncs are out there.)

Which is why I wanted to own one, but one that stuck out from the crowd.

If you read the PCGS Coinfacts - it was heavily hoarded at the time, in UNC, and ONE MAN had 200,000 in his possession at one time.

If all you have is a second hand quote about a story from Walter Breen, I'm not sure I would call that evidence.

mannie gray

It's certainly not a rare coin, but I doubt one man had 200,000.

Jimnight

.

jmlanzaf

@BruceS said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@BruceS said:

@FullStrike said:
Recently I saw a Video where someone tried to sell a 1 oz Gold Maple Leaf to people out on the Street , near a Coin Shop. He tried all sorts of angles. Showed them the $50 value on the reverse, asked for $50. No takers at $50 so he offered it for $20 .... no takers. He even offered it to one Lady for her half full cup of Starbucks... no luck.

Finally the guy.pointed out the Coin Shop and offered to let the people buy from him and go ask for a valuation at the Coin Shop. No one would take a full ounce of Gold at a give away price.

I'd bet if the guy offered a slabbed 1931-S Lincoln for $1 , very few people would show a glimmer of interest.

There's very few of even us Coin Nerds that are interested in 1931-S Lincolns.

I've seen numerous videos of the same guy trying to give away a solid gold coin or a candy bar. Right in front of a pawn shop (where they could go in and verify the coin was real) and had zero takers. Just goes to show that the average Joe doesn't have a clue. Or on the other hand people just dont trust strangers with candy. Look it up it's hilarious

I think it's more the trust factor than anything else. Otherwise a certain Nigerian prince actually would have $30 million that he needs help moving.

Kind of a bad analogy. If a guy handed you a solid gold coin in front of a pawn shop and said would you like to have this coin and you could bring it into the shop and have it checked out would you say no I'll take a Hershey bar. Lol.

Except that you are still trying to figure out what the angle is and whether they are trying to get you into the shop to roll you or something.

We are naturally skeptical of "too good to be true"....well, most of us.

jmlanzaf

@mannie gray said:
It's certainly not a rare coin, but I doubt one man had 200,000.

It's only $2, 000. It's certainly possible. Look at some of the other hoards.

PCGS repeats Breens story, as do other numismatic sites. I've yet to find one that was openly skeptical of the claim. Unless you know something they don't?

jmlanzaf

@Jimnight said:

@Rexford said:
There's no such thing as overrated, underrated, overvalued, or undervalued. A coin is worth what people are willing to pay. That is how this market functions.

Agreed.

I still think that assumes too much about the coin market truly being a free market.

jmlanzaf

@Ronyahski said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@Ronyahski said:

@jmlanzaf said:
Let's assume a nice round number of 300,000 for the number of surviving UNCs. Might be low, but it's in the ball park. Are there 300,000 Lincoln collectors? Does it have enough cachet that even people who aren't "Lincoln collectors" would want to own one?

No and No. (But what evidence do you have that hundreds of thousands of Uncs are out there.)

Which is why I wanted to own one, but one that stuck out from the crowd.

If you read the PCGS Coinfacts - it was heavily hoarded at the time, in UNC, and ONE MAN had 200,000 in his possession at one time.

If all you have is a second hand quote about a story from Walter Breen, I'm not sure I would call that evidence.

Multiple numismatic sites tell the story. None that I have found are openly skeptical about it except a Coin Week article.

But whether that particular hoard existed or not, it was widely hoarded, has a near 100% survival rate and the majority of the coins (like the 31-S Buffalo) are in UNC.

ricko

@FullStrike ....I have seen that video.... Oh how I wish that I would have such an opportunity... Though I am sure if I pulled the $50 out of my pocket, the offer would have been retracted...The entire thing was based on people's aversion to being conned...and they counted on not meeting a numismatically informed individual...or maybe they did and just did not show that encounter. Cheers, RickO

ECHOES

I would have to say no,and no.

ldhair

I'm at no and no as well.

RogerB

As early as 1935, a 1931-S cent was one of a few that were considered nearly impossible to find in change. The young nephew of Treasury Secretary Morgenthau collected coins and asked his uncle to send him some of this and other dates. Treasury secretaries looked through coins and found many, but Morganthau had to buy a 1931-S as part of the kid's birthday gift. [Details and documents in FDR Presidential Library.]

golden

I remember when I was in the fifth grade ,in 1961, a fellow collector got a 1931-S cent back in change from the school cafeteria. He cleaned it with a pencil eraser. Even then I knew that was a huge mistake.

CoinCrazyPA

@jmlanzaf said:

@PTVETTER said:
they may have a high survival rate, but is is across all grades and condition.
therefore I feel its not overrated or over priced.

It was hoarded. Hundreds of thousands of UNCs are out there. It may well be more common in UNC than circ.

I think 2009 took on that roll. They still rarely show up in bank rolls.

lkeigwin

I bought this MS66RD 10+ years ago. It seems to have held its value reasonably well, according to auction records.
Lance.

BuffaloIronTail

@lkeigwin said:
I bought this MS66RD 10+ years ago. It seems to have held its value reasonably well, according to auction records.
Lance.

Me thinks that is about the best you can get.........from storage the color is still a little "off". 1930-D is another culprit for off color. That just adds to the value of your coin, knowing the history.

Pete

ECHOES

@lkeigwin said:
I bought this MS66RD 10+ years ago. It seems to have held its value reasonably well, according to auction records.
Lance.

Beautiful 31-S

DMWJR

One man catching 200,000 out of 866,000? Highly unlikely unless he worked at the mint ...

jmlanzaf

@DMWJR said:
One man catching 200,000 out of 866,000? Highly unlikely unless he worked at the mint ...

Possibly. Take it up with Breen. Either way, highly hoarded, hundreds of thousands of UNCs.