Prices rising?

ranshdow

This is anecdotal, but I'm seeing 5-10% rises in the Coinfacts values for most of the stuff in my registry over the last few months, mostly older SF gold. I don't know if there are any specialist coin price indices or not, which might give a more quantitative answer. Anyone else noticing price rises? Is there a better way to track this?

TommyType

I've notice some prices got bumped-up "around the edges" for US coins in the PCGS price guide. My 3-Cent nickels rose recently, (which may be remarkable in itself!). But more common stuff, like mid-grade Walkers, or Morgans, didn't get the same respect.....

It's all ebbs and flows. I don't know that we are in a wholesale upswing just yet...

TennesseeDave

Just recently had one of my coins go up $1000 in the price guide

1630Boston

Must be a nice coin

TennesseeDave

1878-CC Trade $ in VF-35, went from $2250 to $3250

ianrussell

The coin market is definitely stronger compared to 6-12 months ago.

• Ian

ms70

SELL!

oldgoldlover

I think the economy has recovered enough where the higher grade rare coins are getting bought up. I noticed over the last 3-4 months branch mint rare gold is not showing up as much as it was a year ago.

We were in a viscous economic downturn for eight years and after going through three of them in Texas I feel the longer the economy is bad the longer it takes for consumer confidence to return and that has started.

spacehayduke

@oldgoldlover said:
I think the economy has recovered enough where the higher grade rare coins are getting bought up. I noticed over the last 3-4 months branch mint rare gold is not showing up as much as it was a year ago.

We were in a viscous economic downturn for eight years and after going through three of them in Texas I feel the longer the economy is bad the longer it takes for consumer confidence to return and that has started.

And yet the stock market has had a near record run for the past 8-9 years since the 2008 crash. Unemployment has been near record lows for the past 4 years. Job creation has been steady for the past 6 years. Bad economy? No I think it is just folks are not collecting as much as they used to for a variety of reasons discussed many times on these boards.

Best, SH

spacehayduke

PS - during that time, Texas economy has been sizzling. For example, GDP of 3.9% in 2016. This is despite the downturn in oil. Houston never noticed, just kept growing and expanding and diversifying. I can attest to that by my increasing commute time.

https://bea.gov/newsreleases/regional/gdp_state/2017/_images/qgsp0717.png

So the stagnation in numismatic value is likely a symptom of something else.

Best, SH

mercurydimeguy

Most of the stuff I collect is down 20%-50% in reality (e.g. disregarding what any price guide says). I don't see any strength. I also don't see any reason why it would get stronger. I'm not doom/gloom, I just don't see it. Not in APR's, not in eBay, not on BST, not at shows... maybe I'm the outlier (which can be the case, so I accept that as one version what is happening).

kaz

@TennesseeDave said:
1878-CC Trade $ in VF-35, went from $2250 to $3250

That must be the effect of the one I recently bought, ha ha.

ricko

Latest show reports seemed to indicate improved sales as well.... I am not seeking much at this time, but of course, anything I am interested in, does not come cheap.... Cheers, RickO

BryceM

Two thoughts:

Rising sale and auction prices would be more important than rising guide prices, although sometimes the latter follows the former.

If true, at best this would only be the end of the begging of this downward market cycle.

roadrunner

@TennesseeDave said:
1878-CC Trade $ in VF-35, went from $2250 to $3250

Which would seem to say that the price guide finally caught up to what the market was doing.

mustangmanbob

According to Zillow, my house is going up about $4000 a month for the last 14 months.

I am in the Dallas area, so, yeah, the economy is doing well.

cameonut2011

@mustangmanbob said:
According to Zillow, my house is going up about $4000 a month for the last 14 months.

I am in the Dallas area, so, yeah, the economy is doing well.

Zillow is worthless. It said my house increased more than $63,000 in 30 days and I do not live in a multi-million dollar mansion - far from it. Ditto for Trulia.

RogerB

Coins are very thinly traded. A single buyer/seller can skew "prices" for months. Note the effectiveness of promoters.

Wabbit2313

@kaz said:

@TennesseeDave said:
1878-CC Trade $ in VF-35, went from $2250 to $3250

That must be the effect of the one I recently bought, ha ha.

Actually, the chart can directly be tied to the coins bought at auction this year.

-

-

Soldi

I say just watch for the next promotion and sell into it. There's nothing going on, except in the high end Rick-O, and other wealthy fellows arena. Some really rare coins are going cheap and I don't see any support from new buyers. 15 years ago I paid $6000 for the nicest AU58 1878cc Trade dollar. I thought I was nuts. Proved out I wasn't sold it for $9000. Now? You can't touch that coin for less than $14000.+ and honestly, I wouldn't touch it either.
15 years ago my daughter graduated college, had a nice party in Ridgewood, NJ well, there was an Elvis impersonator and other entertainment and I had brought an MS65 Hawaiian Commemorative. I figured a little talk about Capt Cook, native warrior chief, wakiki beach, Diamond head, numismatics for the soon to be millennial's culture. I paid $5250 for the coin.
I tell you hot dogs, and Elvis did better. sold coin for 5200.
June this year I bought the sweetest Hawaiian in 65 I have ever seen. $3100 non-cac, sent it to JA he reported back the stickers were jumping off the sheet trying to get on the PCGS holder. What a coin! Now, that's a bargain in this market. There is one on Ebay for $7700. I offered $3100 for that one too, didn't want mine to be lonely. Mine is much nicer and still lonely.
I think here and there a good deal lies waiting. Then of course I could be wrong.
The economy is truly not great, so much so, that coins are going to be bought in the 5k to
50k arena without some optimism for future gains. Si? No? I think a serious recession due to the can getting kicked down the road in 2009 is the norm up and coming. 5% UI is intellectual dishonesty. Taxes are high, inflation is stealth, lest you need another TV. 21,000 Djia is too high looks like Japan in 1988.
Man what a bummer. I gotta go outside and shoot myself. Ahhh, forget it I got that
Hawaiian in 65 to keep me happy.

oldgoldlover

@spacehayduke said:

@oldgoldlover said:
I think the economy has recovered enough where the higher grade rare coins are getting bought up. I noticed over the last 3-4 months branch mint rare gold is not showing up as much as it was a year ago.

We were in a viscous economic downturn for eight years and after going through three of them in Texas I feel the longer the economy is bad the longer it takes for consumer confidence to return and that has started.

And yet the stock market has had a near record run for the past 8-9 years since the 2008 crash. Unemployment has been near record lows for the past 4 years. Job creation has been steady for the past 6 years. Bad economy? No I think it is just folks are not collecting as much as they used to for a variety of reasons discussed many times on these boards.

Best, SH

I respectfully check the unemployment rate over the last four years as only when Trump was elected did jobs start to appear. He does know what creates jobs and what will kill the. The jobs I am referring to are good ones as measured by income. I do not know where you live buy I can tell you that people move because of economic factors and living in Texas has and continues to get more crowded because of the state's economic business friendly approach. The national unemployment rate was no were near record lows as it just went below 5% for the first time since 2008.

Any way I am back to coin talk and now retired, the job I wanted from the first day I started getting trained in a large bank as a lender.

Regulated

This is just supply and demand. Most people at the ANA commented on how dry dealer inventory was - the only way to coax more coins out into the open is offer a little more money, which seems to be what's happening.

Anecdotally, I'm having the strongest quarter I've had in years.

spacehayduke

@oldgoldlover said:

@spacehayduke said:

@oldgoldlover said:
I think the economy has recovered enough where the higher grade rare coins are getting bought up. I noticed over the last 3-4 months branch mint rare gold is not showing up as much as it was a year ago.

We were in a viscous economic downturn for eight years and after going through three of them in Texas I feel the longer the economy is bad the longer it takes for consumer confidence to return and that has started.

And yet the stock market has had a near record run for the past 8-9 years since the 2008 crash. Unemployment has been near record lows for the past 4 years. Job creation has been steady for the past 6 years. Bad economy? No I think it is just folks are not collecting as much as they used to for a variety of reasons discussed many times on these boards.

Best, SH

I respectfully check the unemployment rate over the last four years as only when Trump was elected did jobs start to appear. He does know what creates jobs and what will kill the. The jobs I am referring to are good ones as measured by income. I do not know where you live buy I can tell you that people move because of economic factors and living in Texas has and continues to get more crowded because of the state's economic business friendly approach. The national unemployment rate was no were near record lows as it just went below 5% for the first time since 2008.

Any way I am back to coin talk and now retired, the job I wanted from the first day I started getting trained in a large bank as a lender.

Apparently, 10,000s of high tech high paid jobs are going unfilled because Americans don't have the training for them. So I take that to mean the economy is booming and we can't move it forward for lack of education. Read this in several places, CNN Money, saw it on 60 minutes, etc. Not sure why you mention Trump here (I would write a counter comment and get banned so I won't), all I am saying is we have a great economy, most everyone has all of the things they want, and the downturn in numismatics has nothing to do with the economy, it is lack of interest.

Health care industry has 800,000 open positions, high tech 260,000 most which can't be filled because of lack of training:

businessinsider.com/15-tech-jobs-us-employers-cant-seem-to-fill-2017-2

So my take in numismatics is lack of interest. Of note, the bullion market is booming, at Summer ANA, the bullion sellers could not keep their gold and silver on their tables it was moving so fast. Just rare coins apparently.

Best, SH

cameonut2011

@spacehayduke said:

@oldgoldlover said:

@spacehayduke said:

@oldgoldlover said:
I think the economy has recovered enough where the higher grade rare coins are getting bought up. I noticed over the last 3-4 months branch mint rare gold is not showing up as much as it was a year ago.

We were in a viscous economic downturn for eight years and after going through three of them in Texas I feel the longer the economy is bad the longer it takes for consumer confidence to return and that has started.

And yet the stock market has had a near record run for the past 8-9 years since the 2008 crash. Unemployment has been near record lows for the past 4 years. Job creation has been steady for the past 6 years. Bad economy? No I think it is just folks are not collecting as much as they used to for a variety of reasons discussed many times on these boards.

Best, SH

I respectfully check the unemployment rate over the last four years as only when Trump was elected did jobs start to appear. He does know what creates jobs and what will kill the. The jobs I am referring to are good ones as measured by income. I do not know where you live buy I can tell you that people move because of economic factors and living in Texas has and continues to get more crowded because of the state's economic business friendly approach. The national unemployment rate was no were near record lows as it just went below 5% for the first time since 2008.

Any way I am back to coin talk and now retired, the job I wanted from the first day I started getting trained in a large bank as a lender.

Apparently, 10,000s of high tech high paid jobs are going unfilled because Americans don't have the training for them. So I take that to mean the economy is booming and we can't move it forward for lack of education. Read this in several places, CNN Money, saw it on 60 minutes, etc. Not sure why you mention Trump here (I would write a counter comment and get banned so I won't), all I am saying is we have a great economy, most everyone has all of the things they want, and the downturn in numismatics has nothing to do with the economy, it is lack of interest.

Health care industry has 800,000 open positions, high tech 260,000 most which can't be filled because of lack of training:

businessinsider.com/15-tech-jobs-us-employers-cant-seem-to-fill-2017-2

So my take in numismatics is lack of interest. Of note, the bullion market is booming, at Summer ANA, the bullion sellers could not keep their gold and silver on their tables it was moving so fast. Just rare coins apparently.

Best, SH

There is a lot of regional variation. It also varies by job market segment. I don't think we are in the depression like death spiral that many make it out to be, but I also don't agree that is all sunshine and roses either. If you went into the 2008 market down turn in the top 5% of income earners or so as many of us here, you tended to come out very well and the stimulus money helped the market and investments. For the average middle class family, not so much.

P.S. I also recommend that you look beyond simple unemployment statistics and look at under employment as well. Also, all of the unemployment statistics have been skewed - by both political parties - to discount the true number of people out of jobs. The most frequently reported data ignores those that have been out of the job market after a certain period of time, including those who have been searching for jobs for months but were unable to find one. This is less an issue now than it was in 2008-2010, but still should not be discounted.

mannie gray

A rise in a price sheet or website doesn't necessarily equate to a higher selling price. in the "real" world.

TopoftheHill

PCGS 3000 index still falling, but at a slower rate.... The market peaked in 1989, a looooong time ago.

spacehayduke

@cameonut2011 said:

@spacehayduke said:

@oldgoldlover said:

@spacehayduke said:

@oldgoldlover said:
I think the economy has recovered enough where the higher grade rare coins are getting bought up. I noticed over the last 3-4 months branch mint rare gold is not showing up as much as it was a year ago.

We were in a viscous economic downturn for eight years and after going through three of them in Texas I feel the longer the economy is bad the longer it takes for consumer confidence to return and that has started.

And yet the stock market has had a near record run for the past 8-9 years since the 2008 crash. Unemployment has been near record lows for the past 4 years. Job creation has been steady for the past 6 years. Bad economy? No I think it is just folks are not collecting as much as they used to for a variety of reasons discussed many times on these boards.

Best, SH

I respectfully check the unemployment rate over the last four years as only when Trump was elected did jobs start to appear. He does know what creates jobs and what will kill the. The jobs I am referring to are good ones as measured by income. I do not know where you live buy I can tell you that people move because of economic factors and living in Texas has and continues to get more crowded because of the state's economic business friendly approach. The national unemployment rate was no were near record lows as it just went below 5% for the first time since 2008.

Any way I am back to coin talk and now retired, the job I wanted from the first day I started getting trained in a large bank as a lender.

Apparently, 10,000s of high tech high paid jobs are going unfilled because Americans don't have the training for them. So I take that to mean the economy is booming and we can't move it forward for lack of education. Read this in several places, CNN Money, saw it on 60 minutes, etc. Not sure why you mention Trump here (I would write a counter comment and get banned so I won't), all I am saying is we have a great economy, most everyone has all of the things they want, and the downturn in numismatics has nothing to do with the economy, it is lack of interest.

Health care industry has 800,000 open positions, high tech 260,000 most which can't be filled because of lack of training:

businessinsider.com/15-tech-jobs-us-employers-cant-seem-to-fill-2017-2

So my take in numismatics is lack of interest. Of note, the bullion market is booming, at Summer ANA, the bullion sellers could not keep their gold and silver on their tables it was moving so fast. Just rare coins apparently.

Best, SH

There is a lot of regional variation. It also varies by job market segment. I don't think we are in the depression like death spiral that many make it out to be, but I also don't agree that is all sunshine and roses either. If you went into the 2008 market down turn in the top 5% of income earners or so as many of us here, you tended to come out very well and the stimulus money helped the market and investments. For the average middle class family, not so much.

P.S. I also recommend that you look beyond simple unemployment statistics and look at under employment as well. Also, all of the unemployment statistics have been skewed - by both political parties - to discount the true number of people out of jobs. The most frequently reported data ignores those that have been out of the job market after a certain period of time, including those who have been searching for jobs for months but were unable to find one. This is less an issue now than it was in 2008-2010, but still should not be discounted.

Those are good points. Yes maybe I am seeing it through rose colored glasses because of my own situation. But what is clear is that those underemployed could possibly have much better employment if they had the training in high tech and medical. I would hope that this is something that should be considered by the gov - getting educational system set up to get undertrained people the skills they need. If they did that, think of how our economy would fly and how many more coin collectors we would have.

Best, SH

BillJones

The prices never went down for me, except for the coins in my collection. Everything I have tried to buy as only gotten more expensive.

ranshdow

@spacehayduke said:

Those are good points. Yes maybe I am seeing it through rose colored glasses because of my own situation. But what is clear is that those underemployed could possibly have much better employment if they had the training in high tech and medical. I would hope that this is something that should be considered by the gov - getting educational system set up to get undertrained people the skills they need.

Part of the problem is that postgraduate schools don't understand, and don't teach, many of the specialist skills required to be an effective team worker and contributor in say the biotech / life science industry. Just about the only way people learn those skills is by, get this, working in industry. There are some specialist 'finishing' schools like the Keck Graduate Institute in Claremont, CA attempting to bridge this gap, with some success. But the run-of-the-mill graduate programs don't seem to have a clue.

Zoins

@ranshdow said:
Prices rising?

Prices for what I collect seem healthy. There is competition and things are not going or fire sale prices.

@spacehayduke said:
Those are good points. Yes maybe I am seeing it through rose colored glasses because of my own situation. But what is clear is that those underemployed could possibly have much better employment if they had the training in high tech and medical. I would hope that this is something that should be considered by the gov - getting educational system set up to get undertrained people the skills they need.

I agree and often wonder why more people don't go into high tech and medical. For high tech, there have been numerous reports discussing many open positions and good salaries compared to the low number of Americans going into the field. For medical, it seems like the AMA limits the number of doctors that can go into the field but I've heard there is now a glut in certain specialties with doctors having hard time getting positions that match their training.

@ranshdow said:
Part of the problem is that postgraduate schools don't understand, and don't teach, many of the specialist skills required to be an effective team worker and contributor in say the biotech / life science industry. Just about the only way people learn those skills is by, get this, working in industry. There are some specialist 'finishing' schools like the Keck Graduate Institute in Claremont, CA attempting to bridge this gap, with some success. But the run-of-the-mill graduate programs don't seem to have a clue.

Business schools have emphasized team work for many years with team projects and other schools are now doing the same. It's interesting that this is coming up more because companies and employees didn't have this issue before. I think one thing that has exacerbated this problem is that many businesses and workers have transitioned to shorter term employment so there is a wish to transfer the on-the-job training companies used to do to schools. Now, it may very well be true that schools were slow to respond to this faster job turnover and desire for companies to invest less in on-the-job training.

TommyType

I'm not sure your standard colleges and universities were EVER meant to be in charge of "Job Training". They are doing "Skills Training", or "Knowledge Training". It's up to the employer to take the people with the right skills, and train them to apply that knowledge to the jobs they have available.

Perfect example is Engineering. Nobody comes out of college ready to design an oil filter, or satellite, or an assembly line. There are simply too many variations on what an engineer could "do".

Are some jobs now so universal, (software?), that they could be moved to tech schools instead of colleges? Maybe....but I'm betting the number is much smaller than some might guess.

Justacommeman

@BillJones said:
The prices never went down for me, except for the coins in my collection. Everything I have tried to buy as only gotten more expensive.

Unfortunately in a lot of cases I'm with Bill

m

privaterarecoincollector

It seems like most of the Pogue coins disappeared longer term into collections. I can say as a matter of fact that most probably all coins in my collection are off the market now for the next generation at least.
So supply might be getting back to 2013 or pre 2013 levels and so might prices, at least slowly.

privaterarecoincollector

Also Im getting inquiries if I would sell certain coins, which obviously Im now, but it shows stronger demand and less supply.

amwldcoin

LOL! Zillow helped me battle my county on my property taxes! All the houses the county was using against me were valued around 20% lower than the Zillow estimate....mine was valued about 20% over the Zillow estimate!!!!!

@cameonut2011 said:

@mustangmanbob said:
According to Zillow, my house is going up about $4000 a month for the last 14 months.

I am in the Dallas area, so, yeah, the economy is doing well.

Zillow is worthless. It said my house increased more than $63,000 in 30 days and I do not live in a multi-million dollar mansion - far from it. Ditto for Trulia.

Cougar1978

Sell, start taking tables at shows.