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You guys every use technical analysis to time purchases?

Just curious if any of you use technical analysis to make your decisions to buy and sell. I see a lot of people speculating on the effect of changes in government policy, but what about TA? Has it been successful?

Really enjoying collecting coins and currency again

My currency "Box of Ten" Thread: https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/1045579/my-likely-slow-to-develop-box-of-ten#latest

Comments

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,076 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Everyone knows that's just voodoo and markets can't be predicted.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • stevereecystevereecy Posts: 205 ✭✭✭

    Maybe there are some people out there who can do it. Like 1% of the traders. And they aren't divulging their secrets.

    Really enjoying collecting coins and currency again

    My currency "Box of Ten" Thread: https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/1045579/my-likely-slow-to-develop-box-of-ten#latest
  • rickoricko Posts: 98,724 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Much like handicappers at the horse races, there are many systems.... none of which are guaranteed when it comes to actual performance combined with world and political events.... Cheers, RickO

  • stevereecystevereecy Posts: 205 ✭✭✭

    I look at it like this. Imagine you had a big river like the Hudson. And on the Hudson was an oil tanker filled with Silver bars. And every day, tug boats representing different countries were to push the tanker different directions. One day you might get the U.S. and Russian tugboats pushing one way hard, while the german and Chinese tug boats push lightly the other direction. And each day how hard the tugboats push will change with time. So the oil tanker gets pushed back and forth up and down the river constantly. If you asked me, will the tanker be further up river or down river next week, I couldn't tell you that answer. But suppose most all of the tug boats were pushing hard in one direction and the tanker was being moved at 5 knots down river. If you then asked me, where will the tanker be in 5 minutes, I think I could tell you it will be down the river. Why? Because oil tankers can build up momentum that isn't easily turned. So in a way, I could predict the future location of the oil tanker, but only because of what it's doing right now, and only because it is doing a certain thing (moving fast), and not very far in the future. My belief is that if you don't expect too much out of it, TA works.

    Really enjoying collecting coins and currency again

    My currency "Box of Ten" Thread: https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/1045579/my-likely-slow-to-develop-box-of-ten#latest
  • Geckster109Geckster109 Posts: 231 ✭✭✭

    @stevereecy said:
    I look at it like this. Imagine you had a big river like the Hudson. And on the Hudson was an oil tanker filled with Silver bars. And every day, tug boats representing different countries were to push the tanker different directions. One day you might get the U.S. and Russian tugboats pushing one way hard, while the german and Chinese tug boats push lightly the other direction. And each day how hard the tugboats push will change with time. So the oil tanker gets pushed back and forth up and down the river constantly. If you asked me, will the tanker be further up river or down river next week, I couldn't tell you that answer. But suppose most all of the tug boats were pushing hard in one direction and the tanker was being moved at 5 knots down river. If you then asked me, where will the tanker be in 5 minutes, I think I could tell you it will be down the river. Why? Because oil tankers can build up momentum that isn't easily turned. So in a way, I could predict the future location of the oil tanker, but only because of what it's doing right now, and only because it is doing a certain thing (moving fast), and not very far in the future. My belief is that if you don't expect too much out of it, TA works.

    So at what age did you make your 1st million?

  • stevereecystevereecy Posts: 205 ✭✭✭

    Yen? I can show you how to make a million in trading. First, start with two million...

    Really enjoying collecting coins and currency again

    My currency "Box of Ten" Thread: https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/1045579/my-likely-slow-to-develop-box-of-ten#latest
  • Geckster109Geckster109 Posts: 231 ✭✭✭

    That's a good one. Im simply challenging your assertion that TA works by asking how much you have profited from such analysis. If it truly worked, I suspect you'd be spending less time here, and more time trading. The biggest winners in the trading world are the brokers....from commissions. You show me any middle aged person who says they can consistently beat any futures/commodities market and I want to see at least an 8 figure portfolio WITH at least 10 years of previous results that crush the averages. Otherwise i'll show you a bold faced liar.

  • stevereecystevereecy Posts: 205 ✭✭✭
    edited June 19, 2017 7:32AM

    That's like saying someone who claims to have a successful business must have millions in the bank and must have been running that business profitably for 10 years. (And if not, then they don't have a successful business). This logic ignores new developments.

    I'm not claiming I have a "holy grail". I don't think they exist. I've been working on TA for 15 years. At one point, I gave up on it entirely but got pulled back in when I had a revelation to stick with what I know works (mostly moving averages and momentum). I did develop a pretty good system from that, but a guy only makes so much with a shoestring budget. I'm always seeking to improve on it.

    Really enjoying collecting coins and currency again

    My currency "Box of Ten" Thread: https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/1045579/my-likely-slow-to-develop-box-of-ten#latest
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,076 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @stevereecy said:
    Maybe there are some people out there who can do it. Like 1% of the traders. And they aren't divulging their secrets.

    Where's the winky guy?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,778 ✭✭✭✭✭

    TA is heavily dependent upon functioning fundamentals. Until the FED allows the market to do its one and only job (determine fair value) TA cannot correctly predict the direction of malinvestment that currently rules over most asset classes. Bubbleknowledgy is the rule of the day.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,076 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Yup, always the Govt fault when things don't go as planned. Damn they.

    TA is merely a graphical representation of supply and demand. And NO, supply and demand is not fundamentals, it's emotion, mostly fear, greed and aparhy.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,778 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:
    Yup, always the Govt fault when things don't go as planned. Damn they.

    TA is merely a graphical representation of supply and demand. And NO, supply and demand is not fundamentals, it's emotion, mostly fear, greed and aparhy.

    And just what has been the number one fuel for all this emotion?

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • stevereecystevereecy Posts: 205 ✭✭✭

    Yes, and sometimes that fear and greed runs counter to fundamentals. Silver can have every reason to go down, but if people are scared, it can still go up. I put a lot of trust in TA because it's just a snapshot of what's happening. I watch for momentum. At some point, momentum ends, but if you constantly keep yourself protected, you don't take on too much risk. Like my ship in the harbor example. Fast moving ships don't turn on a dime. TA just tells me when the ship is moving fast. I don't ask why.

    Really enjoying collecting coins and currency again

    My currency "Box of Ten" Thread: https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/1045579/my-likely-slow-to-develop-box-of-ten#latest
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,808 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Some of my best purchases were done while the little voice in my head was saying, "oh crap, I know I'm right but this feels like such a big plunge". It's okay to feel a little bit scared sometimes.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,076 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 19, 2017 10:27AM

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:
    Yup, always the Govt fault when things don't go as planned. Damn they.

    TA is merely a graphical representation of supply and demand. And NO, supply and demand is not fundamentals, it's emotion, mostly fear, greed and aparhy.

    And just what has been the number one fuel for all this emotion?

    Your fear.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I use technical analysis to time my sales of silver bullion, selling when the price exceeds $38 per ounce. It has happened twice, once when I was 12 and again when I was 44.

    Hoping for one more time before I die.

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Geckster109 said:

    So at what age did you make your 1st million?

    I was 32.

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,076 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Baley said:

    @Geckster109 said:

    So at what age did you make your 1st million?

    I was 32.

    Me too!!

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • KkathylKkathyl Posts: 3,762 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb Bubbles are designed to prevent class movement. If you take note each generation gets hit with a crash during the prime earning years, it is by design in my humble opinion. Best thing you can do is to learn not to buy into the bubble or get out early, don't be greedy. Fed rate target 2% yet Average earnings have not changed in over 15 years. You don't earn money you create it. Biggest issue I feel is the Communication control consolidations. Stocks at 85x earning is crazy but look at the pot and see how it is allocated. EMP would crash it overnight.

    And the beat goes on

    Best place to buy !
    Bronze Associate member

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 32,994 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:
    Everyone knows that's just voodoo and markets can't be predicted.

    1) it is. it absolutely is.
    2) if enough people with enough market moving power use it then it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.

    uh, despite #1, very loosely, yes. I have definitely avoided purchases where I felt the metal was headed nowhere to down as I flip these ebay bucks deals (catch and release various issues). I jumped on a recent ebay deal before the recent run up and bought all three of the queen's beast issues in one go. They are long gone.

    (answer to past and probable future question: like the catch and release viewing and credit card benefits)

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • chumleychumley Posts: 2,305 ✭✭✭✭

    I can see the garage weathervane from my computer window.... base my move on that

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,808 ✭✭✭✭✭

    _I was 32.

    lol, it took me twice as long.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,076 ✭✭✭✭✭

    If you take note each generation gets hit with a crash during the prime earning years, it is by design in my humble opinion.

    Interesting. You take a pessimistic view. I see bubbles as an opportunity to make fortunes and rise a level or two in economic stature. Every generation gets several bubbles to participate in. Imagine buying silver at $4 and having the opportunity to sell it 10x higher in just 10 years. And then similar opportunities abound on the way down.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 44,271 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I just open a shop every day and speculate there is someone out there worse off than me.

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