Common MS-65 Morgans down to $125 on Graysheet
LRCTom
Posts: 857 ✭✭✭
I just noticed this. How long since they've been that cheap? I can't remember..
..Tom
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Was watching some info coin channel last night, complete date set, that came to $250 bucks a piece all slabbed 64 by our host and NGC.
It's a big drop it seems like ages they around there.
Is it the impact of money going sideways to the Modern Chinese Market instead? I have been fascinated with the gold sheet as many issues show plus signs..
I would say its impact of summer doldrums / if u take $25 amount of drop x estimated MS65 pieces this is a really hi ge market loss. People just don't have money for coins like they used to - certainly evident at last few shows attended.
If people can can acquire slabbed MS 69 ASE for less that $10 or $12 over melt or MS 70 ASE less than $35 a coin they will be buying these as they have more silver than classic dollars. Many going to standard range bullion heavy coins under $100 vs mid range material $100-$300.
MS 70 Pandas are showing plus signs in gold sheet for many issues.
Somethings things reach a watershed where they have seen their day (like the 1950-D nickel) With the bids on many US numismatic coins stagnant or in decline I wonder if there is not more downside on this material. Many are tired of the holder / sticker game or have simply run out of money for coins.
On the flip side common dollars dropping to that could give those chance purchase one who have not been able yet to afford one.
This summer bad time to sell but good time to buy - could be a bloodbath as buyers scoop up deals.
Super nice 64s are strong, especially old holder. Premiums on proof gold and silver eagles have more or less died. https://s3.amazonaws.com/lowres.cartoonstock.com/office-marooned-desert-thirsty-dying-die-ggm070319_low.jpg
"People just don't have money for coins like they used to...."
Not sure this is really true. People who attend coins shows evidently do not spend money on coins like they once did, but I'm not convinced it's because they don't have money. The selling/buying market has changed and many people go elsewhere to buy coins. Look at the large number of posts about coins bought through venues other than shows and "regular" dealers. People also seem to be expanding their hobby/collection interests and buying non-numismatic items or the "shiny stuff" turned out by Canada and other vendors to crows.
The Depression certainly hurt a significant segment of the population - and many in that group are still greatly under-employed or have quit looking. But they were, overall, not the main buying group of coin collectors.
Glad to see JF catching up with the market.
There are an insane, insane amount of MS65 Morgans out there!
Common date morgans in any grade have been a tough sale over the past year at least IMO. It does not surprise me that MS65's dropped $25 on the greysheet. Many auctions that I have seen have also been under that $150 level as well.
The MS65's with CAC stickers are going for MORE, and some with eye appeal also sell for more, but those that are not nice
are selling for less.....
What PTVETTER said. You can frequently find a reasonable 65 for around $125 with the juice and shipping. Unfortunately, as photos can hide fingerprints and other issues, those $125 coins tend not to be the "best in show." CAC stickered are consistently $150-165, WITHOUT the juice and shipping, from what I've seen.
What gets me even more is a dealer with a mess a coins that are raw and marked 65 going for $125 to $150 (after you ask for a discount) for common dates. The caveat is that he's the best grader I know and they are all true 65s. Catch is they are raw. Tell me how that one works?
Works fine for the dealer. His stuff. His Price.
Some dealers do not buy into plastic tombs.
Who trusts greysheet?
Back in 2008-10.... If I remember correctly... common 65 Morgans were $105 range
You would have to go back to 2002 to see those prices.
...or forward to 2018
Prices in antique shops around here have not dropped... of course, they are not slabbed, not graded (or poorly graded) and overpriced even in a good market. These booth sellers think every coin dated before 1950 is a treasure....
Cheers, RickO
Apparently the market for "C" coins is in a state of steep decline. I predict the "B" coins will soon follow as the market for these very, very common coins continues to shrink. If you haven't tightened your grading standards for Morgans I suggest that now would be a good time to do so.
The drop in generic/common MS63/64/65/66/67 Morgans has affected A, B, C, D, and F coins....stickered too. No exceptions. Even common date B+ to A- toners.
If you're getting $125 each for MS65's consider yourself lucky. At GC, unstickered MS65's have been going for $90-$115 for the past month...64's in the $40-$55 range. Even solid for the grade 65 coins are finding it hard to get more than $115-$125. If you're paying $150 for an MS65 that coin better be very strong for the grade or have unusual eye appeal. The 35 year low for MS65's Morgans is $73-$75....back in 2002/2003 when silver was around $4/oz.
Tightening your grading standards won't help. The supply of Morgans is just too large. It's going to take a much stronger silver price to get them going the other way. When the MS64/65 Saints got slaughtered, most collectors said so what? That doesn't effect me. They're too common and should be priced like the bullion they are. Well, now it does affect you (and all dealers) with the price of common MS65 Morgans/Peace/Buffs/Mercs/Walkers, etc. getting pulled down as well.
Common date 65 Morgans were selling just fine last year at GC for $135-$165. And pretty darn well at GC through March at $125-$140. I think with gold and silver topping out in Feb and pulling back hard has had a big effect. You'll have to wait for the summer PM and rare coin doldrums to end to see how it all shakes out.
Some of which do not qualify for the grade.
I saw the same thing with common date Walking Liberty Half Dollars when I was dealer almost ten years ago. There was a huge meltdown on the Gray Sheet for MS-65 Walkers.
The reason was simple. When I was out buying them, I found more than just a few pieces in MS-64 holders for a lot less money, that were nicer than their MS-65 graded counterparts. As more people noted that anomaly, the prices for MS-65 graded coins came down.
The market for MS-65 graded common date Morgan Dollars has been volatile for many years. I can remember when $100 was a benchmark, and then it went to $150 or more. Those high prices were noted during numismatic “boom periods” when some dealers were pushing these coins as “great buys” to the general public.
According to one dealer I knew, when you saw the big price increases on the Gray Sheet, it was too late. The money had already been made by the promoters, and the prices were ready to come down … all to start the cycle again.
At TNA in Arlington the buy price was $105, I seen a few for sale at $110. Greysheet is not even accurate, in fact its about 20% high.
So if the buy price is $105 to $110, what rubes are you selling to and at what price? Seems to me, unless you are doing bulk grading, you have at least $25 bucks into each coin for slabbing...then the cost of the coin, then all ancillary cost. At $110 for a 65, the market is gonna get tight, unless the unsuspecting are constantly ripped for a profit.
At some point, it makes no sense to slab coins, due to cost (unless done in bulk).
Who says I'm selling or buying? I'm giving you concrete buy/sells occurring at GC. Contact them for "your" Rubes.
There's another source besides bulk grading. How about the existing MILLIONS of coins already slabbed from 1990-2016? Once slabbed, the full cost of the slab doesn't carry forward to new owners....just a fraction of it. If you have problems with $110, you can comment on how "tight" it was back in 2002/2003 at $75/MS65 coin. I recall buying 60 fresh MS65's/66's from my local shop - all 80-s and 81-s out of a large raw deal just slabbed. I paid $74 for the MS65's. Had to beg dealers at the Balty show to take them off my hands for $76 each. Wasn't even worth the cost of dragging them around....lol.
I suspect current large quantities of MS65 slabs are trading hands for margins of $2-$5/coin...most of them probably graded years ago. Just saw something from one major seller who is offering up to 200 AGE 1 Oz proofs for $55+spot....about 4-5% spread to spot. Generic bulk stuff is getting cheap.
Doesn't look like there are many rubes out there to me. Auction closing today has maybe, maybe 5 coins (common date Morgans) for under $100. Another handful, 5 or so, in the 100-110 range. Tack on the vig and shipping (about $14 each), most of these are at least $125 delivered. Most of the other common dates are already out above $115 each, without the vig and shipping, bringing them more into line with the $130-150 range.
I'm sure bulk is crazy cheap. Individual, not so much. And the seller will obviously only see a price around $100-110, if lucky. Seems to me the middle man makes the money.
My friend paying $80-85 for common Morgans,.... GC has handle on the market
With the massive population size of the common dates and grade inflation, I think gem generics have plenty of room left to fall.
With bid at 125 my offer somewhere between 100 and 125.
This dip in bid a huge drop and a very material setback for market capitalization. I moved to modern slabbed gold awhile back. I know it's the summer doldrums but sense a sideways shift away from vintage material - the robust modern Chinese market as evidenced by pluses in Goldsheet is doing well. I bought a number of 1/10 oz Panda gold pieces at $140. I saw huge demand for USA slabbed AGB /AGE in 69-70 at recent show too.
If this drop in MS 65 dollars start of vintage material US sliding down beginning of overall correction it wb a bloodbath as many drop their buying or offers in anticipation of lower bids. Perhaps a major investor may come in and exploit the fire sale.
I think what were are seeing is a long term shift which is driven by what younger collectors are actually buying. This does make it a good time to put together perhaps a date set of Morgan dollars in ms65. When I was in my teens a lot of collectors were putting sets of lincoln cents, buffalo nickels, jefferson nickels, mercy dimes, etc etc together but this is not the case any more. They younger set has so many other things they can do with their money. Look for prices to continue to slide downwards slowly for a long time.
a.k.a "The BUFFINATOR"
APMEX's current Bid for PCGS MS65 Morgans (1878-1904) is $105 and you have to sell them $10k worth to get that price. I quick check of ebay shows many sales of same in the $100 - $115 range.
The 2002/2003 lows for MS65 Morgans at $74 each occurred with total PCGS MS Morgan pops at no more than 1.5 MILL coins. Today it's over 3.2 MILL. Some duplicates in there of course, but a sizable increase.
I brouht 2 $75 65 morgans each show I went to for several years 2000-2003.One thing I remember is no one cared about those 65's at all.I never saw anyone buying,no one was even looking.We'll hit 75 again before you know it.
I have gotten well over Greysheet for old holder and/or nice eye appeal coins, but then I pay strong for those too, glad to clear 10-20% profit.