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Didn't realize how far Proof 65 seated dollars have fallen since 2008.
roadrunner
Posts: 28,374 ✭✭✭✭✭
This 1873 NGC PF65 CAC "old fatty" brought $8830 at GC tonight. Considering it met PF65 1989 standards as well as current CAC, I'm surprised these are that low. Low end PF65's were fetching $10K-$11K back around 2009-2010. Coin might not have the blasty-dipped white CAMEO look today's buyers are looking to buy. But, I'd have no problems with it.
Heritage Archives show NGC65 CAC's in the $8800-$9500 range over the past year so this is not a fluke sale. Most striking is that in May 1989....this coin would have sold sight-unseen for $30,000 just the way it sits now...and had buyers tripping over themselves to get it. By mid-1990 is was down to around $20,000. A 71% price decline since 1989.
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Yuckkkkkk. Must look nicer in person but I cannot imagine that being an A coin
That's good for guys like me. Right now I've got my sights set on an 1862 proof 63 CAC Seated Dollar for under 2k. Sometimes it's good to wait. Not that I had the money 30 years ago to afford one. Even now I wouldn't spend anything approaching $30k. I could, but I wouldn't. That's crazy money.
Agree with TDN. Eye appeal carries much more weight today than a decade ago.
CAC is saying it's no worse than a B coin. I doubt they or anyone else here would call it an A coin. It's a coin they would/could make an offer on as solid for the grade....just like a stark white one. Whatever eye appeal CAC desires, this one had enough. The other set of pictures at GC shows the color better on this coin. I've owned numerous PF65 seated coins over the years that at one angle (like the money shots used at GC) make the coin look drab and lifeless. A slight rotation and colors and mirrors come to life.
This is what an originally toned proof seated dollar tends to look like. Anything much different brings up the issue of secondary/tertiary toning. Very few original "monsters" out there with neon/rainbow colors. Not sure I'd agree that eye appeal today is that much more of a factor than in 2008. This same coin wouldn't have been treated that much more kindly in 2008. It wouldn't have been liked by the majority then either. The holder bias doesn't help.
So what is the CAC offer price on the coin?
I don't know where to look up CAC offers. But I would think their offer price is in the $8K-$9K range based on what these have been bringing at auction. In my mind that doesn't quite seem fair if you have a very solid and eye appealing 65 CAC that knocks your socks off....only to get the same $9K offer. Surely, CAC must make a notation on the important coins they see with a market premium/eye appeal factor....so that they could pay more if needed. If not, it's like saying all CAC PF65 seated dollars are created equal....which is of course not possible.
Well they do have a gold sticker!
B coins or solid for the grade in this situation will sell around "generic" B level money (CAC BID IS $8500).
In the last 3 months I have seen at least 2-3 A level pr65 cac coins that traded well above the $10,000 level
The economy took a crap since 2008. Even wealthy business owners were preserving their capital and not venturing into the collectibles market. Many I know (well maybe less than many!) quit spending in order to wait out the downturn. A couple of them were good customers of my little gold business and they just dried up...oh we still stay in touch and one is venturing back, but we will wait and see what the others do. So, the downturn for anything but the absolute best does not surprise me at all.
bob
That also tells the coin's owner the value. Much better to keep very high end coins that don't qualify for a gold bean as a "secret" from their owners. I'm sure CAC would much rather buy green beaned PF65 seated dollars that they think are 65.8 to 66.3 (falling short of gold quality) for green bean money. Even if they don't take advantage of that leverage....their clients will. Gold beans only represent a very tiny portion of the CAC market (1-3%?) and don't represent the bulk of coin market activity. The real money to be made is in the PQ and high end coins that don't get gold beans.
Really depends on where you are and what you do. Portions of the economy like new cars sales, car loans, restaurants, stock market, service industries, many collectibles, high tech devices, etc. have been on fire from 2013-2016....some have continued into 2017. Record housing prices in many areas of the country. Wall Street Bankers and insurance companies no doubt made big paychecks the past few years....buying fancy new cars and new homes. My wife's lawyer (in her mid-50's) had some good years too and treated herself to a new Mercedes this past year, her first new car in over a decade. No signs of any economic downturn for numerous parts of the economy. I guess it comes to location, location, location....and what business, business, business. Some portions of the country (like much of the Northeast) are still in the doldrums.
Was talking to my mechanic today at a car show (he with 40 yrs experience in all facets of the classic car business) and he said 1960's and 1970's muscle cars were back on fire again. I knew they were stronger since the 2009-2011 crash but didn't realize they had gone to "white heat" again. He noticed that "perfumed pig" or "incorrect" cars were almost bringing as much money as the real deal. So in his mind, he felt it was a no brainer to get his clients back into "all there" quality vehicles that can withstand scrutiny in both up and down markets.
I agree with the location thing. Here in S. Nevada we got hit like nobody's business. Housing prices and jobs took major hits. We have so many empty strip centers/malls that commercial prices dropped to those we had in the 80's. Great time to open a shop if you have the funds and clientele or customer base. Housing prices have risen by 50% in past 5 years and that helps but not yet near where we were before the slump. Some parts of the country saw almost no downturn, and we wondered why we and AZ took it so hard.
bob
Even though it didn't receive a gold sticker, I would not be surprised to see this one upgrade today. This area of the market definitely looks underrated (from a historical perspective).
While I do not claim to be an expert on seated dollars, that coin - to me - looks more like a 64 than a 65. JMO Cheers, RickO
Maybe a red sticker then for green plus!
Though none of us evaluating this coin based on the photos can really say if it's actual grade should be 64, 65, or 66. What we do know is that CAC liked it as a 65. We also know that in the very tough 1988-1989 grading environment, where a single hairline or focal point hit/distraction knocked a coin down to 64, this one passed. I'd bet the coin is closer to 66 than a 64. There's little doubt in my mind that if cracked out, the coin could be gotten into a PCGS 65 holder...and restickered. And even with all that....would probably still only be worth about 5-10% more.
A lot of expensive coins have lost value since the end of the last decade, and I am holding them. The 1808 quarter eagle and the 1795 eagle I purchased at that time are both worth a lot less than I paid for them.
I've....CALLED.... CAC on "offer" for coin.
Convinced me to send it to GC for about 30% higher price realized.
But....you can call for a quote.
Shoot, I've lost money a lot faster than that on a coin/s.
I viewed the coin in hand thought it was totally original, but certainly lacked eye appeal., mostly because it was very dark. I also thought it had a 75% chance of crossing to PCGS. In my opinion it was definitely not a PR66....PR65 was the end of the road. Unfortunately, I missed my bid last night. Prices in 1989 for many Slabbed type coins were insane for a while. I have a May 26, 1989 Bluesheet stored somewhere which shows plusses (higher bids than the week before), IN EVERY SERIES, GRADE, BOTH MS AND PROOF. Lib nickels in PR 67 were around 12K, Proof 67 Barber Halves were 25-30K, Proof 65 Seated Dollars were 30-35K. These were all SIGHT UNSEEN. We are certainly in a different market today, but as an active dealer I love these levels. Buying coins for inventory at today's levels have taken much of the downside out inventorying coins. I'd rather stock a PR 65 Seated Dollar at $8500 than 35K. Coins with great eye appeal will always bring premiums, but in the future may or may not be worth more than the last market high.
@roadrunner.... I certainly respect your judgement here....and yes, looking at pictures can certainly be misleading. I was just stating what I felt on viewing the coin..... Cheers, RickO
Thanks for that insight CNNCoins. I'm surprised you'd rate it as 75% crossover potential. As a rule, I figure ANY gem NGC seated type coin as a 0-20% Xover potential to same grade. If cracked out, at least you'd get a fair look at the coin. The prices quoted above were from my May 26th 1989 Blue Sheet which I always have handy. Of course we all know that the actual slabbed product on the market was very small in May 1989. One way to think of it is that 75-90% of the Gem Proof Std Dollars in existence were still raw. In Oct 1989, the PCGS pop reports show 53 total PF65 or higher NM/WM seated dollars (only 3 in 66 and none higher). Figure 10-30% resubmissions. Today the PCGS pops are 492. Even with 50% of those being resubmits, pops have increased approx 4X to 6X...and potentially almost 10X. And PF65 prices are now approx 1/4 of what they once were which fits the estimated pop changes. Those 3 lone PF66's from 1989 have now been joined by approx 130 more in PF66/67/68/69 (a jump of 5% to 26%).
It didn't hurt that institutional money was dipping its foot into the coin market just as housing prices were peaking in 1988-1990. So prices from that era were insane and likely will never be reached again....at least not for generic PF65 seated dollars. Another factor is that many of those old 65's are 66's and 67's today....those are mostly coins with greater eye appeal that had an offending mark or two on the coin....which back then relegated them to 64 status. The tables have since been reversed. A fabulous 64 with album toning and one hairline, has become a 66/67...while the heavily toned 65 w/o any obvious hairlines has remained a 65. Buying slightly "problematic" 63+/64 coins back then with great eye appeal, was the road to future riches....as was buying essentially flawless PF/MS66 graded coins with nice appeal (now 67/68).
Agree with TDN.
I think many coins are still listed sight unseen.
Do i need a winky on this?
Look around there are many series that are priced lower or haven't risen much .. money went/going into stock market for several years .
I'd happily pay $10,000 for a PCGS PR65 CAC A- coin.
I'd bet joebb21 would have it sold for more than $10,750 by the end of his first day at Long Beach.
I would tell him to charge cnncoins $100 extra over his regular quote to pay for the pastrami sandwich cnncoins still owes me from his last East Coast visit. You do NOT want to touch the Orange County version (even if he does)
Maybe the market likes white proofs or those with a definite cameo look, there are less buyers for 100% original and toned coins.
if it had been a colorful coin with bold mirrors, it easily would have brought $12,000.00+ . That coin was a bad example. CAC liked the technical grade, the market didn't care for the NGC holder. Obviously no one thought they could cross it
If it had crossed (and assumedly re-stickered), would you pay 10K?
As HRH has said to me too often: "NFM" - Not For Me
logger7 - 100% original yes, but also ranging from pretty to gorgeous