I don't point out typos. Repeatedly typing "your" (when it should be "you're") is not a typo.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typographical_error
The term includes errors due to mechanical failure or slips of the hand or finger,[3] but excludes errors of ignorance, such as spelling errors, or the flip-flopping of words such as "then" and "than".
I snipe for a simple reason - I've decided how much I "want" to pay for something - and by sniping, I've walked away from the keyboard and it "takes the emotion" out of the equation.
I know - for me - it would be easy to go nuts and pay more than I can afford for something.
Have I missed out on items? You bet. In the end, down the road, I always hope I see another and hopefully where I want to be with respect to what I pay.
Last, we're all friends here. Wouldn't it be better to disagree without disparaging remarks that - 1. belittle and 2. inflame a discussion?
@Dpeck100 said:
Maybe it's a bad angle but that 405 looks like you would need to be Manute Bol to un rack it. If you work out with 405 more power to you. It would squash me.
Standard Elite FTS competition bench with holes every 1/2 inch, so it looks like it is taller than it is. I probably just loaded the bar for my 4th set - I mean who is going to rep that thing out for 4-5 reps
Wish I was part of the clique so I could have all kinds of people support me in the hobby and on the board. Maybe it could possibly be because I treat people the way I want to be treated and try to give more than I get in life. As far as the Crisser that is your call to bring him into it, and I think that calling for support from someone who trolls others, is negative in 90% of their posts, and is obsessed with others cards and tries to tell them how they should act and what they should do with their cards is not the path I would take. Your call though.
@Dpeck100 said:
Maybe it's a bad angle but that 405 looks like you would need to be Manute Bol to un rack it. If you work out with 405 more power to you. It would squash me.
Standard Elite FTS competition bench with holes every 1/2 inch, so it looks like it is taller than it is. I probably just loaded the bar for my 4th set - I mean who is going to rep that thing out for 4-5 reps
Nice comp set up bro but wat do you bench?
Sorry couldn't help my self. But I will go on record as saying that if you put 225 on the bar for me you better not stray to far cause I'm going to need some help after a few reps. Just keeping it real!
First off. Anyone who can even attempt a rep with 405 on the bar should be applauded. Pumping out 4 to 5 reps is awesome. You should be proud of that. Oh that's right that isn't cool. Sorry about that. All those years of hard work in the gym have paid off and being proud of your progress is down right egotistical. It's okay though and I will give you a pass since I don't think it is.
Oh there is a clique here.
In terms of The Crisser. I have no clue who he is and don't need his support or anyone else's. I stand behind my statement that if it was someone that the clique didn't like they would have gone for your throat. You might not realize that but he was accurate. Why did he dig it up? I don't know and honestly I didn't like the direction that thread went but it is what it is.
And if you still think the pic in The Silver Bullet was that bad, maybe you should take a quick peak at Instagram and see what all of the fitness people post. That is where I got the idea.
I have to run. Busy buying some corporate bonds for a client and working on my production for the month. Later.
I believe from what I read quickly this economist points to the results from the study that found no statistical evidence to support a variance in prices paid and that more serious bidders bid at the end that actually want the item increasing their probability of winning. Obviously he ran some new models to test these prior findings.
I tried finding the "new evidence" but in the conclusion I see nothing that suggests lower prices paid.
"While my results largely suggest that sniping is not the work of irrational bidders but
rather is an intentional—and indeed effective—strategy, more research is needed to understand
the mechanism by which it is successful."
Also, it has been pointed out before I believe, but the DPeck position is called "squatting". That can't be made up.
So I am not trying to be a complete jerk here, but this is the article that Dpeck has referenced before? This appears to be a paper written by a Yale student (albeit incredibly intelligent I am sure) with oversight from a Yale professor. Has this been blind peer reviewed? Has this been submitted to any peer reviewed journals? If not, there are so many holes to be poked in this it's not even funny. I mean, this isn't even a doctoral dissertation that had to go before a committee even (While credentials are being thrown around, I have a doctoral degree, and while mine is not in finance nor economics, I can probably poke some pretty good holes in this myself).
@bishop said:
mlbfan -- is there a For Dummies version of that ?
This is from the conclusion:
"Squatting bids are significantly less likely to win auctions than other bids are, and winning squatters do not appear to pay significantly lower prices than other winners do."
I have never once suggested early bids are more likely to win. Quite the contrary. Snipe bids are placed by the most serious bidders and do have a statistical significance in winning more auctions. I see nothing once again that suggests any material savings is gained from sniping. My position the entire time.
In my younger and more vulnerable years my father gave me some advice that I’ve been turning over in my mind ever since. "Whenever you feel like criticizing any one," he told me, "just remember that all the people in this world haven’t had the advantages that you’ve had."
@Cooptown said:
So I am not trying to be a complete jerk here, but this is the article that Dpeck has referenced before? This appears to be a paper written by a Yale student (albeit incredibly intelligent I am sure) with oversight from a Yale professor. Has this been blind peer reviewed? Has this been submitted to any peer reviewed journals? If not, there are so many holes to be poked in this it's not even funny. I mean, this isn't even a doctoral dissertation that had to go before a committee even (While credentials are being thrown around, I have a doctoral degree, and while mine is not in finance nor economics, I can probably poke some pretty good holes in this myself).
Really? Now we are referencing and debating academic procedures here?
@Dpeck100 said:
I see nothing once again that suggests any material savings is gained from sniping. My position the entire time.
Are you blind?
"Squatting bids are significantly less likely to win auctions than other bids are."
So, sniping > squatting when it comes to winning auctions.
That's nothing??
I think you get yourself so worked up reading my posts that you can't comprehend what I write.
Never once have I ever said there was a higher probability of winning auctions from early bids. I have said the entire time that I don't think there is a difference in price. Period. Very simple.
It shouldn't come as any surprise that if there are economic studies that agree with my non scientific findings that I embrace them. As a graduate with an economics degree I am naturally going to value their opinions and findings over all of ours as I believe in statistical analysis.
@Dpeck100 said:
Never once have I ever said there was a higher probability of winning auctions from early bids. I have said the entire time that I don't think there is a difference in price. Period. Very simple.
"I don't think there is a difference in price."
And why is that? What data do you have that suggests it's true? You can't possibly have come to that conclusion just from going by your memory.
From the paper:
"While a clear pattern to the prevalence of sniping is decent evidence that snipers act strategically, stronger evidence for strategic sniping is the success of the strategy in terms of the probability of winning and the closing price."
The study they reference from 2007 shows no statistical significance in price and it is the non DVD version. You choose to believe the one you posted. I will choose to believe the one they cited.
@Dpeck100 said:
I see nothing once again that suggests any material savings is gained from sniping. My position the entire time.
Are you blind?
"Squatting bids are significantly less likely to win auctions than other bids are."
So, sniping > squatting when it comes to winning auctions.
That's nothing??
I think you get yourself so worked up reading my posts that you can't comprehend what I write.
Never once have I ever said there was a higher probability of winning auctions from early bids. I have said the entire time that I don't think there is a difference in price. Period. Very simple.
It shouldn't come as any surprise that if there are economic studies that agree with my non scientific findings that I embrace them. As a graduate with an economics degree I am naturally going to value their opinions and findings over all of ours as I believe in statistical analysis.
Go make yourself a drink and chill out.
I just want to be sure I understand this. You are in agreement that by sniping, you win more auctions. You then state that there's no difference in final price. So if I bid $100 on day 1 of 20 auctions and 1 win 5 for $100, and I would have won say 7 if I would have sniped $100 on those same 20 auctions (which we all seem to agree on), then somehow those other 2 auctions that I didn't win sold for the same final price?
@Dpeck100 said:
First off. Anyone who can even attempt a rep with 405 on the bar should be applauded. Pumping out 4 to 5 reps is awesome. You should be proud of that. Oh that's right that isn't cool. Sorry about that. All those years of hard work in the gym have paid off and being proud of your progress is down right egotistical. It's okay though and I will give you a pass since I don't think it is.
Sincerely appreciate the compliment. Best lifting days are WAY behind me - Father Time is still undeafeated. Your car pic was pretty good - add some dips and close grip benches in and you will add another 1-2" on your arms. With your current size you would be around 18"+ if you added some more mass on the backside of your arms. I don't do nearly the bicep work I should since 2/3 of arm size is triceps.
Oh there is a clique here. I don't think there is a clique here, and clique denotes a negative connotation. I think people who have become friends through common interests would be more accurate. I enjoy this board because of the wealth of info here, and there truly some of the smartest people in the card world on here who I have learned a ton from over the years.
In terms of The Crisser. I have no clue who he is and don't need his support or anyone else's. I stand behind my statement that if it was someone that the clique didn't like they would have gone for your throat. You might not realize that but he was accurate. Why did he dig it up? I don't know and honestly I didn't like the direction that thread went but it is what it is.
I think you have to look at people in any walk of life and judge them by their actions and how they treat people. You can call it a clique, but it was pretty apparent that he was a stalker who had an obsession with a card. Guy has never met and acted like he was hanging out with me in AC, and he never saw the card in question since it was only shown to a couple of good buddies there who are board members and great members of the collecting community. Crisser called me a liar because I stated that I received offers for the 53 Mantle in the 5 figures and did not sell it. Not too far fetched to not sell since selling it means I would have to search for a replacement that would cost 10x what I paid for it.
Nice comp set up bro but wat do you bench?
Kevin
The good days are long gone in regards to lifting crazy stuff, but did manage a few times to bench over 500. Best gym bench was 515 and best in a meet was 505 a few weeks later. Missed with 525 which felt like a VW on my chest
The thought process of EBAY bidders has been proven to be virtually impossible to predict. I have participated in thousands of auctions over the years and watched thousands more. My ability to predict closing prices isn't very good nor is anyone else's. We have seen that play out countless times with numerous auctions outed on this forum and guesses ranging within hundreds and sometimes thousands of dollars. My argument the entire time has simply been the time of the bid has no impact on the final price. All that matters is the desire to win and who bids the highest. All of these studies show that the most serious bidders tend to bid at the end but understand that isn't always the case. I have read a number of the pages and they walk through lots of scenarios.
Years ago I said I would bid very strong out of the gate to scare off potential bidders. There is some evidence in these studies that suggests that actually works. That said if someone wants it more it doesn't. I have also said that because sniping is no secret anymore and so many bidders are using it as their only strategy it has mitigated some of its potential benefits. You will read in one of these reports they point to this as a snipe bid in the early days would elicit surprise from other bidders and now it is simply expected. Just think about how many times an auction you are following or participating in comes down to the wire and you say to yourself here come the snipes and three or four new bidders emerge with seconds to go. There is no surprise element left. Many of this forum use VCP so lets walk through an example. If a card has a VCP of $100 and lets say the second it goes live you bid $120. Over the course of the next seven days it moves up to $57. In the final seconds three bids come in at $87, $92, and $101. You win for $102. None of the other competitors challenged your bid until the end and you won below your proxy bid. This happens all of the time.
When I make reference to how one would come up with their formula to bid on a low pop card generally we all use prior sales to base our opinions on what to bid. In a case of a Pop 1 generally you look at other examples and perhaps put a premium or discount based on other factors such as star power etc. The basis for my initial comment in this thread is the card went for much more than any would predict and that was proven by muffins poll. Once a card moves past your max it is no longer able to be bid on with a snipe relegating it worthless. I have bid on cards in my genre such as this and bid up some to see where others are at and came in with the hammer at the end. In every case myself and one or two other people were much higher than the pack and so in reality I could have put in that same bid within minutes of the auction starting with no one willing to challenge it until the end. All that mattered was the amount I bid.
There are also plenty of examples where early bids appear to be getting run up but once more the more serious bidders come in and move it even higher in the final seconds. I too have won many auctions with putting in a large bid a day or so early and the card moving up to a solid level but still a deal with no one bidding. The papers refer to this as squatting and the theory is that others see that the high bid is very serious and they realize to win it will take a real effort and give up. I think there is some merit to this logic but once again if a bid comes in as the auction is ending it only matters what that bid is. I think there is a misconception that all bidders want to win. They don't. I have put out tons of proxy bids just to follow a card or to put a floor underneath one. Here is a real time example.
I have seven copies of this card in a PSA 9. I put out a $50 opening bid. The last copy I paid $75. I am willing at all times to take this card off the sellers hands at $50. I don't need the card but I feel confident that the price is fair. The selling price has been volatile due to the pop rising, BIN vs. auction and just general volatility in prices based on who bids. I am done bidding on this card. Had I put in a $500 bid no one would ever challenge it. Could the card sell for $77, yes. Could it sell for $102, yes. But all that mattered was how much I bid and who else wanted it. The only thing that we as bidders can predict is what we will pay. It is impossible to know with any real confidence who else is out there in the universe who wants something. It is too random. What will most likely occur in this auction is the card in the final hour will move up further and pop a little at the end with a few final snipes.
The reason I have spoken about the nuclear snipe being the most dangerous bid of all is you are actually exposed for that amount and if one other nuclear snipe comes in they collide. If your intent is to win you must bid the most so the logic is obvious that you throw in a stupid high bid but so does someone else and bam you have a price that is dramatically higher than the pack. Well guess what you could have thrown in a nuclear bid that was immensely higher than most would think the card would sell for with no issue until the end.
What I do find funny is the study that suggest sniping saves money barely in the range of statistical significance saves close to $1. Just $1. So in a case of a $38,000 card it is laughable to suggest a snipe vs. manual bid matters. In my view if a buck is the deciding factor you shouldn't be buying trading cards anyway. In no way am I saying sniping is a bad idea. I just don't think it is anywhere near as effective in saving money like so many do. A few years ago after beating this topic to a pulp I went and tried to research it to see if there were any papers analyzing it. It turned out there was and the one I found indeed confirmed my belief using very advanced mathematical modeling. The assumption like most here was that it would indeed save money but in the final analysis it didn't due to the random nature of auctions and hard to predict bidder patterns. If one chooses to believe it great, if one doesn't that's fine too. I choose to as in my experience after trying every bidding pattern possible the outcomes have been so similar with the deciding factor being how high I bid. In the times I have snipped I have actually lost more auctions than won and once more the only reason was I didn't bid high enough. Someone else wanted it more.
Agree or disagree with me. This is my take away and it has never changed.
Kendall I try and have fun hear on the forums. It is a virtual universe with many having no clue who are the people behind the avatars. Most couldn't pick each other out of a lineup. I was hanging out at my buddy Charles house watching the NBA finals and saw your post and thought it would be funny and elicit a reaction if a posted the pic. I was just having fun and it wasn't really meant with any intention to brag. When I first joined here some of the guys high jacked my pic from Facebook and after some serious back and forth I posted a photo showing off the guns that were much bigger than. That post was meant to brag.
I now focus on trying to just stay in shape and only weigh 173 pounds and my primary goal is keeping my waist tight. After my shoulder surgery in 2013 I have really had to be very careful with how I lift and my strength levels aren't anywhere near as high on bench and shoulder press. I have always worked out to try and improve my appearance so knowing I can't really go too heavy I just try and be lean. My body fat is the lowest its been since I was 23 and I work hard to keep it that way. It was a lot of fun in my late 20's and early 30's pushing around heavier weight and my max was 275 which isn't that impressive but wasn't terrible for a guy that weighed 190. I have never had an issue with you on these forums and hopefully I won't going forward. I enjoy collectors like you posting awesome cards and that is one of the reasons I like being here. Every once in a while a person gets to me and while I don't regret my posts about my W2 I understand why it would rub people the wrong way. I have worked really hard in life to try and be successful and my business is reflecting that and I am happy about it.
I don't pretend to know the back story on your issue about the Mantle and I honestly don't care if you had it reviewed or didn't. That is your business not mine. People on this forum pick and choose who they like and generally if someone is posting amazing baseball cards they are in. You obviously have done that. Good luck with your collection and I apologize for even bringing that up. Take care.
Now that everyone groks how to bid during auctions, does someone have another booklet that explains how to properly factor buyer's premiums into those bids in Auction House auctions ?
Many of this forum use VCP so lets walk through an example. If a card has a VCP of $100 and lets say the second it goes live you bid $120. Over the course of the next seven days it moves up to $57. In the final seconds three bids come in at $87, $92, and $101. You win for $102. None of the other competitors challenged your bid until the end and you won below your proxy bid. This happens all of the time.
Dpeck, thanks for the well thought out reply. I do want to say, using your example and the only thing I KNOW to be true, which is how my own mind works, that in this case I believe sniping works better. In the past, I never sniped. Hated it. Now I snipe only, and I am 100% convinced that it's the way to go. In the auction you mentioned, if I wanted the card, I would have opened the auction, saw that it was at 99 cents (with your one $120 bid entered), and I would have said "I need this card and I'll see if I can get it for a bargain", and I would throw out a bid of $70. It would immediately jump to $71. Dang it. Well, it's still a good price. I'll go $72. Now it's at $73. Now emotion takes over and I do this 3 more times and before you know it the card is at $80, and I, a cheapskate, give up. So you end up winning the card at $80. Now if you would have sniped $120, I would have entered my $70 bid, I would have been winning at 99 cents, and then I would sit there watching the auction count down 10 9 8 7 (dang I'm going to win this for 99 cent!) and bang at 3 seconds, your snipe goes off and you win for $71.
Conversely, if we both snipe, you win for $71. I've seen it happen time and time again. Heck, I even up my active snipes now at times when my snipe is passed while the auction is still a ways from completion. If everyone sniped and there were no early bids, auctions would end at lower prices.
I guess, at the end of the day, the reason auctions are "live" and bids are exposed is to benefit the seller, not the buyer. Imagine if, in these Barrett-Jackson auto auctions, instead of the guy looking around the room essentially "egging on" people to outbid each other and seeing people squirm because they are already $10K over what they thought they could, they made everyone write their bid on piece of paper and hand it in? Which auctions do you think would end higher?
Put another way, if ebay changed their format so that all bids were hidden until the auction ended (or in other words, if EVERYONE sniped), would you be okay with that as a seller? I know I wouldn't.
@detroitfan2 said: Many of this forum use VCP so lets walk through an example. If a card has a VCP of $100 and lets say the second it goes live you bid $120. Over the course of the next seven days it moves up to $57. In the final seconds three bids come in at $87, $92, and $101. You win for $102. None of the other competitors challenged your bid until the end and you won below your proxy bid. This happens all of the time.
Dpeck, thanks for the well thought out reply. I do want to say, using your example and the only thing I KNOW to be true, which is how my own mind works, that in this case I believe sniping works better. In the past, I never sniped. Hated it. Now I snipe only, and I am 100% convinced that it's the way to go. In the auction you mentioned, if I wanted the card, I would have opened the auction, saw that it was at 99 cents (with your one $120 bid entered), and I would have said "I need this card and I'll see if I can get it for a bargain", and I would throw out a bid of $70. It would immediately jump to $71. Dang it. Well, it's still a good price. I'll go $72. Now it's at $73. Now emotion takes over and I do this 3 more times and before you know it the card is at $80, and I, a cheapskate, give up. So you end up winning the card at $80. Now if you would have sniped $120, I would have entered my $70 bid, I would have been winning at 99 cents, and then I would sit there watching the auction count down 10 9 8 7 (dang I'm going to win this for 99 cent!) and bang at 3 seconds, your snipe goes off and you win for $71.
Conversely, if we both snipe, you win for $71. I've seen it happen time and time again. Heck, I even up my active snipes now at times when my snipe is passed while the auction is still a ways from completion. If everyone sniped and there were no early bids, auctions would end at lower prices.
I guess, at the end of the day, the reason auctions are "live" and bids are exposed is to benefit the seller, not the buyer. Imagine if, in these Barrett-Jackson auto auctions, instead of the guy looking around the room essentially "egging on" people to outbid each other and seeing people squirm because they are already $10K over what they thought they could, they made everyone write their bid on piece of paper and hand it in? Which auctions do you think would end higher?
Put another way, if ebay changed their format so that all bids were hidden until the auction ended (or in other words, if EVERYONE sniped), would you be okay with that as a seller? I know I wouldn't.
But I'm the monkey wrench in your strategies.
First let me say that no I don't do this 100% of the time but often enough. Using your example I sit on the sidelines and wait. You don't know if I'm there. I watch the bids roll in over the 7 days. Then we get to the last 30 seconds and bids come in from people who think that's sniping and all they are really doing is driving up the cost (perhaps intentionally). Two or three bids go back and forth and now we are down to the last few seconds. The price is at $110 and it looks like Dpeck has it won. There is now 1 second left and I hit enter on my max bid of $250. A "nuclear snipe". Double VCP and more than what any reasonable person would bid but because I want the item I'm going to get it. And I do for $121.
That's the problems with the studies as far as I can see. They use data on DVDs and iPhones where there are thousands of sales. People can try and "steal" an item for below the going rate. You can't do that on a card that maybe surfaces in the exact same condition maybe once every few months or years.
That's the problems with the studies as far as I can see. They use data on DVDs and iPhones where there are thousands of sales. People can try and "steal" an item for below the going rate. You can't do that on a card that maybe surfaces in the exact same condition maybe once every few months or years.
Kevin.
That's what I was going to point out. All auctions aren't "equal". The study may be reliable when you are talking about sniping commonly available items, but extrapolating the results of the study to any or all sports collectables regardless of their rarity or availability isn't good science. I don't have an opinion regarding sniping vs not sniping, but just from a scientific standpoint, you can't take the study of iPhone auctions and apply the results to auctions of super rare collectables.
I actively collect Kirby Puckett. I have collections of Michael Jordan, Emmitt Smith, Roberto Clemente, Dwight Gooden, Tom Seaver, Errict Rhett and Evan Longoria.
@Dpeck100 said:
Kendall I try and have fun hear on the forums. It is a virtual universe with many having no clue who are the people behind the avatars. Most couldn't pick each other out of a lineup. I was hanging out at my buddy Charles house watching the NBA finals and saw your post and thought it would be funny and elicit a reaction if a posted the pic. I was just having fun and it wasn't really meant with any intention to brag. When I first joined here some of the guys high jacked my pic from Facebook and after some serious back and forth I posted a photo showing off the guns that were much bigger than. That post was meant to brag.
I now focus on trying to just stay in shape and only weigh 173 pounds and my primary goal is keeping my waist tight. After my shoulder surgery in 2013 I have really had to be very careful with how I lift and my strength levels aren't anywhere near as high on bench and shoulder press. I have always worked out to try and improve my appearance so knowing I can't really go too heavy I just try and be lean. My body fat is the lowest its been since I was 23 and I work hard to keep it that way. It was a lot of fun in my late 20's and early 30's pushing around heavier weight and my max was 275 which isn't that impressive but wasn't terrible for a guy that weighed 190. I have never had an issue with you on these forums and hopefully I won't going forward. I enjoy collectors like you posting awesome cards and that is one of the reasons I like being here. Every once in a while a person gets to me and while I don't regret my posts about my W2 I understand why it would rub people the wrong way. I have worked really hard in life to try and be successful and my business is reflecting that and I am happy about it.
I don't pretend to know the back story on your issue about the Mantle and I honestly don't care if you had it reviewed or didn't. That is your business not mine. People on this forum pick and choose who they like and generally if someone is posting amazing baseball cards they are in. You obviously have done that. Good luck with your collection and I apologize for even bringing that up. Take care.
Dpeck
Appreciate the note and explanation. In hindsight I probably should have followed my universal theory in that it is always to judge intent and tone in emails, texts, and mb posts which leads to far too many things that escalate more than they would in the real world face to face. I am guilty of that for sure.
I am also in the bum shoulder club, and about 2 years ago my rotator tore while benching. Had never been injured prior to that lifting, and was lucky that I was not under a huge amount of weight. Was doing "speed day" with 225 plus mini bands for 10 sets of 3 and set 6 it went pop. Did not have surgery but had the ortho check it out and got a cortisone shot and let it rest. Now I pick exercises to not cause issues with it. Hopefully I can keep trying to lift smarter and keep it ok. I knew I should have cut back on benching because it is not a matter of if but when will you get injured. Your idea of getting leaner and in shape makes a ton of sense especially when we get to be in the 35+ age range.
Appreciate the comments on the Mantle cards, and hopefully I can add some new ones here soon. All good from my side, and thank you again for the note. Apologize to those in the thread for derailing it. Doubletree cookies are on me at the National
@Dpeck100 said:
Kendall I try and have fun hear on the forums. It is a virtual universe with many having no clue who are the people behind the avatars. Most couldn't pick each other out of a lineup. I was hanging out at my buddy Charles house watching the NBA finals and saw your post and thought it would be funny and elicit a reaction if a posted the pic. I was just having fun and it wasn't really meant with any intention to brag. When I first joined here some of the guys high jacked my pic from Facebook and after some serious back and forth I posted a photo showing off the guns that were much bigger than. That post was meant to brag.
I now focus on trying to just stay in shape and only weigh 173 pounds and my primary goal is keeping my waist tight. After my shoulder surgery in 2013 I have really had to be very careful with how I lift and my strength levels aren't anywhere near as high on bench and shoulder press. I have always worked out to try and improve my appearance so knowing I can't really go too heavy I just try and be lean. My body fat is the lowest its been since I was 23 and I work hard to keep it that way. It was a lot of fun in my late 20's and early 30's pushing around heavier weight and my max was 275 which isn't that impressive but wasn't terrible for a guy that weighed 190. I have never had an issue with you on these forums and hopefully I won't going forward. I enjoy collectors like you posting awesome cards and that is one of the reasons I like being here. Every once in a while a person gets to me and while I don't regret my posts about my W2 I understand why it would rub people the wrong way. I have worked really hard in life to try and be successful and my business is reflecting that and I am happy about it.
I don't pretend to know the back story on your issue about the Mantle and I honestly don't care if you had it reviewed or didn't. That is your business not mine. People on this forum pick and choose who they like and generally if someone is posting amazing baseball cards they are in. You obviously have done that. Good luck with your collection and I apologize for even bringing that up. Take care.
Good post David.
I always enjoy reading alternative ideas on things like the merits of sniping.
Takes a big man to admit some things were said in haste.
I enjoy Keith's posts on cards and his enjoyment of the hobby.
I really like that you've brought a "different" POV on cards with wrestling e.g.
I look forward to both of your posts on pickups etc. in the future.
@detroitfan2 said: Many of this forum use VCP so lets walk through an example. If a card has a VCP of $100 and lets say the second it goes live you bid $120. Over the course of the next seven days it moves up to $57. In the final seconds three bids come in at $87, $92, and $101. You win for $102. None of the other competitors challenged your bid until the end and you won below your proxy bid. This happens all of the time.
Dpeck, thanks for the well thought out reply. I do want to say, using your example and the only thing I KNOW to be true, which is how my own mind works, that in this case I believe sniping works better. In the past, I never sniped. Hated it. Now I snipe only, and I am 100% convinced that it's the way to go. In the auction you mentioned, if I wanted the card, I would have opened the auction, saw that it was at 99 cents (with your one $120 bid entered), and I would have said "I need this card and I'll see if I can get it for a bargain", and I would throw out a bid of $70. It would immediately jump to $71. Dang it. Well, it's still a good price. I'll go $72. Now it's at $73. Now emotion takes over and I do this 3 more times and before you know it the card is at $80, and I, a cheapskate, give up. So you end up winning the card at $80. Now if you would have sniped $120, I would have entered my $70 bid, I would have been winning at 99 cents, and then I would sit there watching the auction count down 10 9 8 7 (dang I'm going to win this for 99 cent!) and bang at 3 seconds, your snipe goes off and you win for $71.
Conversely, if we both snipe, you win for $71. I've seen it happen time and time again. Heck, I even up my active snipes now at times when my snipe is passed while the auction is still a ways from completion. If everyone sniped and there were no early bids, auctions would end at lower prices.
I guess, at the end of the day, the reason auctions are "live" and bids are exposed is to benefit the seller, not the buyer. Imagine if, in these Barrett-Jackson auto auctions, instead of the guy looking around the room essentially "egging on" people to outbid each other and seeing people squirm because they are already $10K over what they thought they could, they made everyone write their bid on piece of paper and hand it in? Which auctions do you think would end higher?
Put another way, if ebay changed their format so that all bids were hidden until the auction ended (or in other words, if EVERYONE sniped), would you be okay with that as a seller? I know I wouldn't.
But I'm the monkey wrench in your strategies.
First let me say that no I don't do this 100% of the time but often enough. Using your example I sit on the sidelines and wait. You don't know if I'm there. I watch the bids roll in over the 7 days. Then we get to the last 30 seconds and bids come in from people who think that's sniping and all they are really doing is driving up the cost (perhaps intentionally). Two or three bids go back and forth and now we are down to the last few seconds. The price is at $110 and it looks like Dpeck has it won. There is now 1 second left and I hit enter on my max bid of $250. A "nuclear snipe". Double VCP and more than what any reasonable person would bid but because I want the item I'm going to get it. And I do for $121.
That's the problems with the studies as far as I can see. They use data on DVDs and iPhones where there are thousands of sales. People can try and "steal" an item for below the going rate. You can't do that on a card that maybe surfaces in the exact same condition maybe once every few months or years.
Kevin.
I'm not sure I follow Kevin. You sniped (snope?) and you won, I would argue way cheaper than if you would have bid $250 on day one of the auction. If anything, your monkey wrench helps support sniping.
Comments
The picture does make it look like you'd need 8 ft arms to work with that
http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/news/a43468/stop-pointing-out-typos/
I don't point out typos. Repeatedly typing "your" (when it should be "you're") is not a typo.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typographical_error
The term includes errors due to mechanical failure or slips of the hand or finger,[3] but excludes errors of ignorance, such as spelling errors, or the flip-flopping of words such as "then" and "than".
It's called using an iPhone and not proof reading past the suggested words.
How one bids is their business from viewpoint.
I snipe for a simple reason - I've decided how much I "want" to pay for something - and by sniping, I've walked away from the keyboard and it "takes the emotion" out of the equation.
I know - for me - it would be easy to go nuts and pay more than I can afford for something.
Have I missed out on items? You bet. In the end, down the road, I always hope I see another and hopefully where I want to be with respect to what I pay.
Last, we're all friends here. Wouldn't it be better to disagree without disparaging remarks that - 1. belittle and 2. inflame a discussion?
Pic of W2 or it didn't happen
You come out from hiding from behind your ALT account and post a pic of who you are and I will take a pic of my pay stub. Balls in your court.
Full body picture or will bicep-only do?
My name is Bob Moat, people call me Bob Moat.
Standard Elite FTS competition bench with holes every 1/2 inch, so it looks like it is taller than it is. I probably just loaded the bar for my 4th set - I mean who is going to rep that thing out for 4-5 reps
Wish I was part of the clique so I could have all kinds of people support me in the hobby and on the board. Maybe it could possibly be because I treat people the way I want to be treated and try to give more than I get in life. As far as the Crisser that is your call to bring him into it, and I think that calling for support from someone who trolls others, is negative in 90% of their posts, and is obsessed with others cards and tries to tell them how they should act and what they should do with their cards is not the path I would take. Your call though.
Nice comp set up bro but wat do you bench?
Sorry couldn't help my self. But I will go on record as saying that if you put 225 on the bar for me you better not stray to far cause I'm going to need some help after a few reps.
Just keeping it real!
Kevin
Kevin
First off. Anyone who can even attempt a rep with 405 on the bar should be applauded. Pumping out 4 to 5 reps is awesome. You should be proud of that. Oh that's right that isn't cool. Sorry about that. All those years of hard work in the gym have paid off and being proud of your progress is down right egotistical. It's okay though and I will give you a pass since I don't think it is.
Oh there is a clique here.
In terms of The Crisser. I have no clue who he is and don't need his support or anyone else's. I stand behind my statement that if it was someone that the clique didn't like they would have gone for your throat. You might not realize that but he was accurate. Why did he dig it up? I don't know and honestly I didn't like the direction that thread went but it is what it is.
And if you still think the pic in The Silver Bullet was that bad, maybe you should take a quick peak at Instagram and see what all of the fitness people post. That is where I got the idea.
I have to run. Busy buying some corporate bonds for a client and working on my production for the month. Later.
......
This thread has officially de railed!
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
This thread has been electric city.
Squatting, Sniping, and Online Strategy: Analyzing Early and Late Bidding in eBay Auctions
Philip Groenwegen
Advised by Professor Philip A. Haile
Yale University
Department of Economics
April 3, 2017
http://economics.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/Undergraduate/Nominated Senior Essays/2016-17/PhilipGroenwegen_Senior Essay.pdf
mlbfan -- is there a For Dummies version of that ?
Bowman Baseball -1948-1955
Fleer Baseball-1923, 1959-2007
Al
Summarize it for us.
I believe from what I read quickly this economist points to the results from the study that found no statistical evidence to support a variance in prices paid and that more serious bidders bid at the end that actually want the item increasing their probability of winning. Obviously he ran some new models to test these prior findings.
I tried finding the "new evidence" but in the conclusion I see nothing that suggests lower prices paid.
"While my results largely suggest that sniping is not the work of irrational bidders but
rather is an intentional—and indeed effective—strategy, more research is needed to understand
the mechanism by which it is successful."
Also, it has been pointed out before I believe, but the DPeck position is called "squatting". That can't be made up.
So I am not trying to be a complete jerk here, but this is the article that Dpeck has referenced before? This appears to be a paper written by a Yale student (albeit incredibly intelligent I am sure) with oversight from a Yale professor. Has this been blind peer reviewed? Has this been submitted to any peer reviewed journals? If not, there are so many holes to be poked in this it's not even funny. I mean, this isn't even a doctoral dissertation that had to go before a committee even (While credentials are being thrown around, I have a doctoral degree, and while mine is not in finance nor economics, I can probably poke some pretty good holes in this myself).
This is from the conclusion:
"Squatting bids are significantly less likely to win auctions than other bids are, and winning squatters do not appear to pay significantly lower prices than other winners do."
I have never once suggested early bids are more likely to win. Quite the contrary. Snipe bids are placed by the most serious bidders and do have a statistical significance in winning more auctions. I see nothing once again that suggests any material savings is gained from sniping. My position the entire time.
In my younger and more vulnerable years my father gave me some advice that I’ve been turning over in my mind ever since. "Whenever you feel like criticizing any one," he told me, "just remember that all the people in this world haven’t had the advantages that you’ve had."
Really? Now we are referencing and debating academic procedures here?
This thread should just end.
Are you blind?
"Squatting bids are significantly less likely to win auctions than other bids are."
So, sniping > squatting when it comes to winning auctions.
That's nothing??
I think you get yourself so worked up reading my posts that you can't comprehend what I write.
Never once have I ever said there was a higher probability of winning auctions from early bids. I have said the entire time that I don't think there is a difference in price. Period. Very simple.
It shouldn't come as any surprise that if there are economic studies that agree with my non scientific findings that I embrace them. As a graduate with an economics degree I am naturally going to value their opinions and findings over all of ours as I believe in statistical analysis.
Go make yourself a drink and chill out.
This has been incredible to watch. Thank you.
........
"I don't think there is a difference in price."
And why is that? What data do you have that suggests it's true? You can't possibly have come to that conclusion just from going by your memory.
From the paper:
"While a clear pattern to the prevalence of sniping is decent evidence that snipers act strategically, stronger evidence for strategic sniping is the success of the strategy in terms of the probability of winning and the closing price."
Unless you have someone to help - sometimes sales go off at the same time or close enough that sniping helps.
And as I said - for those who don't have unlimited funds, sniping takes the emotional element - the impulse to win - out of the equation.
Thus, one bids what they can afford - win, lose or draw.
That's my opine.
Oh, and what's with all the ML players today who can't legibly sign their name?
The study they reference from 2007 shows no statistical significance in price and it is the non DVD version. You choose to believe the one you posted. I will choose to believe the one they cited.
I just want to be sure I understand this. You are in agreement that by sniping, you win more auctions. You then state that there's no difference in final price. So if I bid $100 on day 1 of 20 auctions and 1 win 5 for $100, and I would have won say 7 if I would have sniped $100 on those same 20 auctions (which we all seem to agree on), then somehow those other 2 auctions that I didn't win sold for the same final price?
Sincerely appreciate the compliment. Best lifting days are WAY behind me - Father Time is still undeafeated. Your car pic was pretty good - add some dips and close grip benches in and you will add another 1-2" on your arms. With your current size you would be around 18"+ if you added some more mass on the backside of your arms. I don't do nearly the bicep work I should since 2/3 of arm size is triceps.
I think you have to look at people in any walk of life and judge them by their actions and how they treat people. You can call it a clique, but it was pretty apparent that he was a stalker who had an obsession with a card. Guy has never met and acted like he was hanging out with me in AC, and he never saw the card in question since it was only shown to a couple of good buddies there who are board members and great members of the collecting community. Crisser called me a liar because I stated that I received offers for the 53 Mantle in the 5 figures and did not sell it. Not too far fetched to not sell since selling it means I would have to search for a replacement that would cost 10x what I paid for it.
The good days are long gone in regards to lifting crazy stuff, but did manage a few times to bench over 500. Best gym bench was 515 and best in a meet was 505 a few weeks later. Missed with 525 which felt like a VW on my chest
Detroitfan2
The thought process of EBAY bidders has been proven to be virtually impossible to predict. I have participated in thousands of auctions over the years and watched thousands more. My ability to predict closing prices isn't very good nor is anyone else's. We have seen that play out countless times with numerous auctions outed on this forum and guesses ranging within hundreds and sometimes thousands of dollars. My argument the entire time has simply been the time of the bid has no impact on the final price. All that matters is the desire to win and who bids the highest. All of these studies show that the most serious bidders tend to bid at the end but understand that isn't always the case. I have read a number of the pages and they walk through lots of scenarios.
Years ago I said I would bid very strong out of the gate to scare off potential bidders. There is some evidence in these studies that suggests that actually works. That said if someone wants it more it doesn't. I have also said that because sniping is no secret anymore and so many bidders are using it as their only strategy it has mitigated some of its potential benefits. You will read in one of these reports they point to this as a snipe bid in the early days would elicit surprise from other bidders and now it is simply expected. Just think about how many times an auction you are following or participating in comes down to the wire and you say to yourself here come the snipes and three or four new bidders emerge with seconds to go. There is no surprise element left. Many of this forum use VCP so lets walk through an example. If a card has a VCP of $100 and lets say the second it goes live you bid $120. Over the course of the next seven days it moves up to $57. In the final seconds three bids come in at $87, $92, and $101. You win for $102. None of the other competitors challenged your bid until the end and you won below your proxy bid. This happens all of the time.
When I make reference to how one would come up with their formula to bid on a low pop card generally we all use prior sales to base our opinions on what to bid. In a case of a Pop 1 generally you look at other examples and perhaps put a premium or discount based on other factors such as star power etc. The basis for my initial comment in this thread is the card went for much more than any would predict and that was proven by muffins poll. Once a card moves past your max it is no longer able to be bid on with a snipe relegating it worthless. I have bid on cards in my genre such as this and bid up some to see where others are at and came in with the hammer at the end. In every case myself and one or two other people were much higher than the pack and so in reality I could have put in that same bid within minutes of the auction starting with no one willing to challenge it until the end. All that mattered was the amount I bid.
There are also plenty of examples where early bids appear to be getting run up but once more the more serious bidders come in and move it even higher in the final seconds. I too have won many auctions with putting in a large bid a day or so early and the card moving up to a solid level but still a deal with no one bidding. The papers refer to this as squatting and the theory is that others see that the high bid is very serious and they realize to win it will take a real effort and give up. I think there is some merit to this logic but once again if a bid comes in as the auction is ending it only matters what that bid is. I think there is a misconception that all bidders want to win. They don't. I have put out tons of proxy bids just to follow a card or to put a floor underneath one. Here is a real time example.
http://www.ebay.com/itm/401345455395?_trksid=p2060353.m1431.l2649&ssPageName=STRK:MEBIDX:IT
I have seven copies of this card in a PSA 9. I put out a $50 opening bid. The last copy I paid $75. I am willing at all times to take this card off the sellers hands at $50. I don't need the card but I feel confident that the price is fair. The selling price has been volatile due to the pop rising, BIN vs. auction and just general volatility in prices based on who bids. I am done bidding on this card. Had I put in a $500 bid no one would ever challenge it. Could the card sell for $77, yes. Could it sell for $102, yes. But all that mattered was how much I bid and who else wanted it. The only thing that we as bidders can predict is what we will pay. It is impossible to know with any real confidence who else is out there in the universe who wants something. It is too random. What will most likely occur in this auction is the card in the final hour will move up further and pop a little at the end with a few final snipes.
The reason I have spoken about the nuclear snipe being the most dangerous bid of all is you are actually exposed for that amount and if one other nuclear snipe comes in they collide. If your intent is to win you must bid the most so the logic is obvious that you throw in a stupid high bid but so does someone else and bam you have a price that is dramatically higher than the pack. Well guess what you could have thrown in a nuclear bid that was immensely higher than most would think the card would sell for with no issue until the end.
What I do find funny is the study that suggest sniping saves money barely in the range of statistical significance saves close to $1. Just $1. So in a case of a $38,000 card it is laughable to suggest a snipe vs. manual bid matters. In my view if a buck is the deciding factor you shouldn't be buying trading cards anyway. In no way am I saying sniping is a bad idea. I just don't think it is anywhere near as effective in saving money like so many do. A few years ago after beating this topic to a pulp I went and tried to research it to see if there were any papers analyzing it. It turned out there was and the one I found indeed confirmed my belief using very advanced mathematical modeling. The assumption like most here was that it would indeed save money but in the final analysis it didn't due to the random nature of auctions and hard to predict bidder patterns. If one chooses to believe it great, if one doesn't that's fine too. I choose to as in my experience after trying every bidding pattern possible the outcomes have been so similar with the deciding factor being how high I bid. In the times I have snipped I have actually lost more auctions than won and once more the only reason was I didn't bid high enough. Someone else wanted it more.
Agree or disagree with me. This is my take away and it has never changed.
+1
Articulated better than I ever could, Dpeck.
Kendall I try and have fun hear on the forums. It is a virtual universe with many having no clue who are the people behind the avatars. Most couldn't pick each other out of a lineup. I was hanging out at my buddy Charles house watching the NBA finals and saw your post and thought it would be funny and elicit a reaction if a posted the pic. I was just having fun and it wasn't really meant with any intention to brag. When I first joined here some of the guys high jacked my pic from Facebook and after some serious back and forth I posted a photo showing off the guns that were much bigger than. That post was meant to brag.
I now focus on trying to just stay in shape and only weigh 173 pounds and my primary goal is keeping my waist tight. After my shoulder surgery in 2013 I have really had to be very careful with how I lift and my strength levels aren't anywhere near as high on bench and shoulder press. I have always worked out to try and improve my appearance so knowing I can't really go too heavy I just try and be lean. My body fat is the lowest its been since I was 23 and I work hard to keep it that way. It was a lot of fun in my late 20's and early 30's pushing around heavier weight and my max was 275 which isn't that impressive but wasn't terrible for a guy that weighed 190. I have never had an issue with you on these forums and hopefully I won't going forward. I enjoy collectors like you posting awesome cards and that is one of the reasons I like being here. Every once in a while a person gets to me and while I don't regret my posts about my W2 I understand why it would rub people the wrong way. I have worked really hard in life to try and be successful and my business is reflecting that and I am happy about it.
I don't pretend to know the back story on your issue about the Mantle and I honestly don't care if you had it reviewed or didn't. That is your business not mine. People on this forum pick and choose who they like and generally if someone is posting amazing baseball cards they are in. You obviously have done that. Good luck with your collection and I apologize for even bringing that up. Take care.
What he said
Now that everyone groks how to bid during auctions, does someone have another booklet that explains how to properly factor buyer's premiums into those bids in Auction House auctions ?
Bowman Baseball -1948-1955
Fleer Baseball-1923, 1959-2007
Al
And also, how do you know a reasonable shipping charge when you see one.?
Bowman Baseball -1948-1955
Fleer Baseball-1923, 1959-2007
Al
Many of this forum use VCP so lets walk through an example. If a card has a VCP of $100 and lets say the second it goes live you bid $120. Over the course of the next seven days it moves up to $57. In the final seconds three bids come in at $87, $92, and $101. You win for $102. None of the other competitors challenged your bid until the end and you won below your proxy bid. This happens all of the time.
Dpeck, thanks for the well thought out reply. I do want to say, using your example and the only thing I KNOW to be true, which is how my own mind works, that in this case I believe sniping works better. In the past, I never sniped. Hated it. Now I snipe only, and I am 100% convinced that it's the way to go. In the auction you mentioned, if I wanted the card, I would have opened the auction, saw that it was at 99 cents (with your one $120 bid entered), and I would have said "I need this card and I'll see if I can get it for a bargain", and I would throw out a bid of $70. It would immediately jump to $71. Dang it. Well, it's still a good price. I'll go $72. Now it's at $73. Now emotion takes over and I do this 3 more times and before you know it the card is at $80, and I, a cheapskate, give up. So you end up winning the card at $80. Now if you would have sniped $120, I would have entered my $70 bid, I would have been winning at 99 cents, and then I would sit there watching the auction count down 10 9 8 7 (dang I'm going to win this for 99 cent!) and bang at 3 seconds, your snipe goes off and you win for $71.
Conversely, if we both snipe, you win for $71. I've seen it happen time and time again. Heck, I even up my active snipes now at times when my snipe is passed while the auction is still a ways from completion. If everyone sniped and there were no early bids, auctions would end at lower prices.
I guess, at the end of the day, the reason auctions are "live" and bids are exposed is to benefit the seller, not the buyer. Imagine if, in these Barrett-Jackson auto auctions, instead of the guy looking around the room essentially "egging on" people to outbid each other and seeing people squirm because they are already $10K over what they thought they could, they made everyone write their bid on piece of paper and hand it in? Which auctions do you think would end higher?
Put another way, if ebay changed their format so that all bids were hidden until the auction ended (or in other words, if EVERYONE sniped), would you be okay with that as a seller? I know I wouldn't.
But I'm the monkey wrench in your strategies.
First let me say that no I don't do this 100% of the time but often enough. Using your example I sit on the sidelines and wait. You don't know if I'm there. I watch the bids roll in over the 7 days. Then we get to the last 30 seconds and bids come in from people who think that's sniping and all they are really doing is driving up the cost (perhaps intentionally). Two or three bids go back and forth and now we are down to the last few seconds. The price is at $110 and it looks like Dpeck has it won. There is now 1 second left and I hit enter on my max bid of $250. A "nuclear snipe". Double VCP and more than what any reasonable person would bid but because I want the item I'm going to get it. And I do for $121.
That's the problems with the studies as far as I can see. They use data on DVDs and iPhones where there are thousands of sales. People can try and "steal" an item for below the going rate. You can't do that on a card that maybe surfaces in the exact same condition maybe once every few months or years.
Kevin.
Kevin
That's what I was going to point out. All auctions aren't "equal". The study may be reliable when you are talking about sniping commonly available items, but extrapolating the results of the study to any or all sports collectables regardless of their rarity or availability isn't good science. I don't have an opinion regarding sniping vs not sniping, but just from a scientific standpoint, you can't take the study of iPhone auctions and apply the results to auctions of super rare collectables.
I actively collect Kirby Puckett. I have collections of Michael Jordan, Emmitt Smith, Roberto Clemente, Dwight Gooden, Tom Seaver, Errict Rhett and Evan Longoria.
"When life hands you lemons, squirt someone in the eye".....not Jack Handey
Dpeck
Appreciate the note and explanation. In hindsight I probably should have followed my universal theory in that it is always to judge intent and tone in emails, texts, and mb posts which leads to far too many things that escalate more than they would in the real world face to face. I am guilty of that for sure.
I am also in the bum shoulder club, and about 2 years ago my rotator tore while benching. Had never been injured prior to that lifting, and was lucky that I was not under a huge amount of weight. Was doing "speed day" with 225 plus mini bands for 10 sets of 3 and set 6 it went pop. Did not have surgery but had the ortho check it out and got a cortisone shot and let it rest. Now I pick exercises to not cause issues with it. Hopefully I can keep trying to lift smarter and keep it ok. I knew I should have cut back on benching because it is not a matter of if but when will you get injured. Your idea of getting leaner and in shape makes a ton of sense especially when we get to be in the 35+ age range.
Appreciate the comments on the Mantle cards, and hopefully I can add some new ones here soon. All good from my side, and thank you again for the note. Apologize to those in the thread for derailing it. Doubletree cookies are on me at the National
Sign me up Al!
SCP charged me 49.50 for a 12" cup trophy.
Hope it comes with a happy ending or something?
Sorry for the question, but why this card cost so much?
Good post David.
I always enjoy reading alternative ideas on things like the merits of sniping.
Takes a big man to admit some things were said in haste.
I enjoy Keith's posts on cards and his enjoyment of the hobby.
I really like that you've brought a "different" POV on cards with wrestling e.g.
I look forward to both of your posts on pickups etc. in the future.
I'm not sure I follow Kevin. You sniped (snope?) and you won, I would argue way cheaper than if you would have bid $250 on day one of the auction. If anything, your monkey wrench helps support sniping.
edit: remark removed; was over a friend's and he thought it was his account he was responding with.
Ya gotta love life!