You guys got it all wrong. The dealers at shows who have tons of raw coins at affordable prices are making a killing. I sat at the Central States show and watched a FRIENDLY small time dealer make a ton of deals in the 1/2 hour I was at their table buying around 75 coins. A dealer came by and bought about $5,000 worth of stuff while I was sitting there as well. This was on the second day of the show. This guy was super busy and he was moving mostly RAW coins back near the budget section (my favorite by the way).
On the other hand, I saw a ton of large, national dealers with only high priced graded coins in their cases twittling their thumbs, reading the newspaper and playing solitaire on their phone (true story)! When I approached many of these tables I didn't even get a hello. If you want to sell some coins, start bringing the stuff people want to buy and act happy when someone comes to look at your coins. Stop trying to hit only home runs with these high priced graded coins and start hitting some singles and doubles with truly collector material. Build a relationship with me and then I will probably buy some high priced coins.
In addition, do you really think "newbies" are going to be buying these high priced graded coins when they are just starting out. For heavens sake, at least bring some lower priced stuff that will sell and attract some attention to your table. Some of those small dealers at the back of the show were packed with customers.
I had one big time dealer tell me they don't have enough space to bring their "low priced stuff". Really? I could fit my whole collection in a large suitcase. Bring a few binders of cool raw coins at great prices and stuff a few 2X2 boxes in your suitcase on your way out the door. You can't afford not to bring this material because it's what gets people to stop at your table.
I know a lot of you will say I am wrong, but I remember the shows back in the 70's as well as any of the people who keep talking about the good old days. That's when dealers actually seemed to cater to the small customers just as much as the big boys. If you want to sell some coins, break out the binders and the red 2X2 boxes and put your graded coins to the side for a show. Price your material to sell and have a friendly disposition and you will sell coins!!!!!! Why do you think the young new collectors are shopping on eBay? eBay has the lower priced coins they want at competitive prices.
I think the ANA should have a dealer seminar at the World's Fair of Money on Relationship Selling the day before the show opens. I have worked in sales and have been a sales trainer and good sales training can help even the seasoned professional improve sales. From my experience at shows, coin dealers need help learning how to sell.
@hchcoin said:
You guys got it all wrong. The dealers at shows who have tons of raw coins at affordable prices are making a killing. I sat at the Central States show and watched a FRIENDLY small time dealer make a ton of deals in the 1/2 hour I was at their table buying around 75 coins. A dealer came by and bought about $5,000 worth of stuff while I was sitting there as well. This was on the second day of the show. This guy was super busy and he was moving mostly RAW coins back near the budget section (my favorite by the way).
On the other hand, I saw a ton of large, national dealers with only high priced graded coins in their cases twittling their thumbs, reading the newspaper and playing solitaire on their phone (true story)! When I approached many of these tables I didn't even get a hello. If you want to sell some coins, start bringing the stuff people want to buy and act happy when someone comes to look at your coins. Stop trying to hit only home runs with these high priced graded coins and start hitting some singles and doubles with truly collector material. Build a relationship with me and then I will probably buy some high priced coins.
In addition, do you really think "newbies" are going to be buying these high priced graded coins when they are just starting out. For heavens sake, at least bring some lower priced stuff that will sell and attract some attention to your table. Some of those small dealers at the back of the show were packed with customers.
I had one big time dealer tell me they don't have enough space to bring their "low priced stuff". Really? I could fit my whole collection in a large suitcase. Bring a few binders of cool raw coins at great prices and stuff a few 2X2 boxes in your suitcase on your way out the door. You can't afford not to bring this material because it's what gets people to stop at your table.
I know a lot of you will say I am wrong, but I remember the shows back in the 70's as well as any of the people who keep talking about the good old days. That's when dealers actually seemed to cater to the small customers just as much as the big boys. If you want to sell some coins, break out the binders and the red 2X2 boxes and put your graded coins to the side for a show. Price your material to sell and have a friendly disposition and you will sell coins!!!!!! Why do you think the young new collectors are shopping on eBay? eBay has the lower priced coins they want at competitive prices.
I think the ANA should have a dealer seminar at the World's Fair of Money on Relationship Selling the day before the show opens. I have worked in sales and have been a sales trainer and good sales training can help even the seasoned professional improve sales. From my experience at shows, coin dealers need help learning how to sell.
Another example would be ASE. For the price of one quality key in the older series, collector can also choose at least one complete set of ASE . But some of us, still refuse to accept the trend and calling them modern junk.
It's funny (not 'ha ha'!) that the coins I want (not US) seem to go far above estimate (recently, by 50% for the coin I won, and 2x for the coin I lost -- estimates by my agent, which was over the auction house's estimates).
And, the coins I want to sell too frequently seem not to bring similarly strong money.
Sad. Bigly sad. YUGE sadness.
EVP
When you work with a pro you get to lose your money more slowly.
Sorta like that boiling frog
"People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf." - Geo. Orwell
@Sonorandesertrat said:
Should dealers be marketing a (near) bottom? Couldn't hurt business.
I called a market bottom in late December. Not as marketing, but because I wanted to be able to say "I told you so". Funny thing is that I'm still not sure if I was right. Lots of conflicting signals out there right now. (Hence, the OP.)
I'm marketing a big tax break and the return of the prodigal 1%. And 2%. And 3%, I'm hedging by betting against this at Ladbroke's in London. And I'm hedging that by using MS67+ Norfolks (valued at full XF Ask) as collateral for my bet.
"People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf." - Geo. Orwell
@hchcoin said:
You guys got it all wrong. The dealers at shows who have tons of raw coins at affordable prices are making a killing. I sat at the Central States show and watched a FRIENDLY small time dealer make a ton of deals in the 1/2 hour I was at their table buying around 75 coins. A dealer came by and bought about $5,000 worth of stuff while I was sitting there as well.
Making a killing? Probably not.
First, a 5K sale to a dealer probably means a small profit. And if the margins are good, the killing was probably made buying the coins elsewhere, not at the show.
Second, it will cost most dealers thousands of dollars in time and out-of-pocket expenses to prepare for and attend a show. You have to sell a lot of $50 coins to break even at a coin show, much less "make a killing".
Granted, there are a handful of dealers that do extremely well selling cheap coins at coin shows. But it is far from easy.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
@hchcoin said:
You guys got it all wrong. The dealers at shows who have tons of raw coins at affordable prices are making a killing. I sat at the Central States show and watched a FRIENDLY small time dealer make a ton of deals in the 1/2 hour I was at their table buying around 75 coins. A dealer came by and bought about $5,000 worth of stuff while I was sitting there as well.
Making a killing? Probably not.
First, a 5K sale to a dealer probably means a small profit. And if the margins are good, the killing was probably made buying the coins elsewhere, not at the show.
Second, it will cost most dealers thousands of dollars in time and out-of-pocket expenses to prepare for and attend a show. You have to sell a lot of $50 coins to break even at a coin show, much less "make a killing".
Granted, there are a handful of dealers that do extremely well selling cheap coins at coin shows. But it is far from easy.
You are missing my point. I am not saying don't bring your trophy coins. I am saying bring some collector stuff as well. I bought around 75 coins at the table, he also made about 5 more sales including the deal with the dealer in 1/2 hour on the second afternoon. This guy was doing really well. He was moving stuff.
My other point is this: When did coin shows become an exclusive country club? Have some of the dealers forgotten what it was like when they were just starting out or when they were just a collector on a modest budget? Most people don't start out collecting $10,000 coins right out of the gate. How hard is it to bring some coins that fit all budgets? I buy $1 coins and I buy $1,000+ coins. I don't want to only look at high priced graded coins. Maybe I am odd, but I love picking through a red box of 2X2's or an album of raw coins just as much as I enjoy buying an XF PCGS graded Draped Bust Quarter.
I do not sell coins, therefore I only read here about the 'market' from that perspective. I do buy coins... and the prices in general have tended to be stable.... some bargains... It seems the sellers are all waiting for the buyers to drive the 'market'. While I am not a coin dealer, I spent many years in business. I can tell you that sellers must drive the market - that is why they are called (to use an old term) 'market makers'. This can be done through pricing mainly... sure, good material is necessary, but selling is NOT sitting behind a table or storefront waiting for business to come to you. It must be sought, attracted, pulled in..... If sellers (dealers) do not drive the market it will continue to sink. Pricing and product - promoted loudly and widely - will bring business... Cheers, RickO
@hchcoin said:
You guys got it all wrong. The dealers at shows who have tons of raw coins at affordable prices are making a killing.
@hchcoin said:
You guys got it all wrong. The dealers at shows who have tons of raw coins at affordable prices are making a killing. I sat at the Central States show and watched a FRIENDLY small time dealer make a ton of deals in the 1/2 hour I was at their table buying around 75 coins. A dealer came by and bought about $5,000 worth of stuff while I was sitting there as well. This was on the second day of the show. This guy was super busy and he was moving mostly RAW coins back near the budget section (my favorite by the way).
On the other hand, I saw a ton of large, national dealers with only high priced graded coins in their cases twittling their thumbs, reading the newspaper and playing solitaire on their phone (true story)! When I approached many of these tables I didn't even get a hello. If you want to sell some coins, start bringing the stuff people want to buy and act happy when someone comes to look at your coins. Stop trying to hit only home runs with these high priced graded coins and start hitting some singles and doubles with truly collector material. Build a relationship with me and then I will probably buy some high priced coins.
In addition, do you really think "newbies" are going to be buying these high priced graded coins when they are just starting out. For heavens sake, at least bring some lower priced stuff that will sell and attract some attention to your table. Some of those small dealers at the back of the show were packed with customers.
I had one big time dealer tell me they don't have enough space to bring their "low priced stuff". Really? I could fit my whole collection in a large suitcase. Bring a few binders of cool raw coins at great prices and stuff a few 2X2 boxes in your suitcase on your way out the door. You can't afford not to bring this material because it's what gets people to stop at your table.
I know a lot of you will say I am wrong, but I remember the shows back in the 70's as well as any of the people who keep talking about the good old days. That's when dealers actually seemed to cater to the small customers just as much as the big boys. If you want to sell some coins, break out the binders and the red 2X2 boxes and put your graded coins to the side for a show. Price your material to sell and have a friendly disposition and you will sell coins!!!!!! Why do you think the young new collectors are shopping on eBay? eBay has the lower priced coins they want at competitive prices.
I think the ANA should have a dealer seminar at the World's Fair of Money on Relationship Selling the day before the show opens. I have worked in sales and have been a sales trainer and good sales training can help even the seasoned professional improve sales. From my experience at shows, coin dealers need help learning how to sell.
I agree with a number of your comments. I find it comical when dealers list coins on eBay for hefty premiums over book, leave it at that price for months, and then complain about slow eBay sales. Quality pieces listed with a competitive BIN disappear very quickly. Most of my eBay coin purchases over the past 6 months were bought through BIN within 24 hours of the item being posted. Most of the items I lost out on were bought through BIN within 24 hours.
@ColonelJessup said:
That same thought came to me as I was contemplating seppuku yesterday. But I thought back to and was inspired by that old British Navy maxim "The beatings will continue until morale improves"
Would love to hear from more seasoned dealers, collectors, and experts.
Short term bottom opportunities?
Long term bull opportunities.
If die marriage enthusiasts can lead a huge bull run in Draped bust Halfs, copper, etc... what is your opinion on VAM's?
Find opportunities in things that are lagging or overlooked. Beat the bushes for "fresh" coins that have a real reason to rise in value. The problem is, that every year about 5-10% of what used to have a "decent" reason, no longer does. You have to be on that leading edge, not the trailing edge. If everyone does this, the market will collapse any ways as everyone ignores the bottom 80-90% of the market, the remaining 10-20% will find it hard to lift all boats.
No doubt plenty of upside in better varieties, better vams, etc, especially those you can cherry pick unattributed. Unusual and nice color in a variety of coins. Find full or perfect strikes in coins that don't come that way. Full Heads and Full Bands are fine, but how about a 98-100% full strike? Gem type from emerging markets is another opportunity. What about India, China, Australia, Brazil, Peru, Chile? Find key dates in series that aren't priced quite like key dates yet. The bust, seated, and Barber series still have some. Choice original VF/XF/AU dated material in early 20th century coinage seems underrated. Try doing a Barber, Lincoln, Merc, SLQ set in any of those grades....you can skip the "key" dates if you like. Research and pounding the pavement is important.
I've owned a number of coins in the past 10 yrs that I knew should have been keepers....yet let them go. You can't do that. I recall an old fatty NGC MS66 Connecticut with Christmas tree colors. Or an original 1900 gem 65/66 Proof Set handed down from the original family including orig documents and wrappers. You can't replace that stuff. This kind of discussion is hard to do here because there are so many variables, starting with available funds, time and effort, patience, time frame, etc. Everyone is different. There's no one answer.
This sums it up pretty well. Except that it defines that irrationality that is the coin market.
There is no such thing as a "real reason to rise in value" unless you have figured out all aspects of the coin market supply and demand. Coin collecting is entirely discretionary. And the demand is decreasing.
And the balance of the next paragraph speaks to nothing that equates to a "real reason to rise in value". It speaks to whims fads, and promotions - varieties (they didn't use to be important), strike (it didn't use to matter much), foreign (some will, some might, most won't), key dates (of which series, '77 Indians and 09-SVDB are out of favor as are their respective series, and most are traded in very narrow ranges), and even choice original VF/XF/AU sets (who builds date sets anymore?).
This has always been the case. Nothing has changed, except that the top 25% (I'm being quite generous) is sitting on a very weak 75% at this point. People are increasingly depending on gradeflation to bail them out; without this, even more prices would be stagnant or even sinking.
Member: EAC, NBS, C4, CWTS, ANA
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
@Sonorandesertrat said:
"... It speaks to whims fads, and promotions..."
This has always been the case. Nothing has changed, except that the top 25% (I'm being quite generous) is sitting on a very weak 75% at this point. People are increasingly depending on gradeflation to bail them out; without this, even more prices would be stagnant or even sinking.
Exactly my point - that there is no "real reason to rise in value".
Perhaps "real reason" should be changed to "determinant reason". Then, we might have more to talk about.
Without it, it's all supposition.
@Sonorandesertrat said:
"... It speaks to whims fads, and promotions..."
This has always been the case. Nothing has changed, except that the top 25% (I'm being quite generous) is sitting on a very weak 75% at this point. People are increasingly depending on gradeflation to bail them out; without this, even more prices would be stagnant or even sinking.
There are a great number of coins that have a fundamental reason to rise in value simply because hobbies are victims of fads. I was going to mention something like a La Salle Illinois tax "token" as something you can pick up for pennies and could easily soar in value since these were really state issued coins and had very low mintages. But eBay has one for sale at $35.00 now so I guess you can't find them for pennies any longer.
But it's the same across the board. While everyone's counting how many VAM's can dance on the heads of Morgans many US coins are going begging. The same applies to scarce world coins as well as various exonumia. People in the mainstream hobby don't see it but there are many coins that are exploding in value and demand. They've been out of style for decades or in some cases, forever, but collectors are looking for them now and have to bid up the price to acquire them.
Try finding a nice Gem La Salle token. Go ahead, try. There might be one but it won't be available on the market and it might get tossed in a junk box or even the garbage before it has a chance to sell. Just finding one with luster is a feat. If there were more than a few people looking you might not find one at all.
Everyone wants to collect what everyone else collects. Partly it's because we like to socialize over common interests but mostly it's just the perversity of human nature.
@DoubleEagle59 said:
Welcome to the world of the Canadian coin market!
Exactly how is the Canadian coin market?
Pre 2008, coins were selling for 80% of Canadian Trends (our 'official price list) and quite often more on Ebay.
Since then to the present, 50% on Ebay is the norm.
Dealers are still selling at 80% of trends at coin shows but they really aren't selling at all, just asking for 80% (coins collecting dust- dealers in dreamland).
Another indicator.................
Pre 2008, I was selling any kind of ICCS coin to the dealers for 60% of trends.
Now, half of them only offer 35% and the other half don't want to buy at all.
Definitely a buyer's market.
Is this across the board, or are some series holding up better than others. ?
The hardest hit are modern silver (1950s-1960s) coins, especially those in gem grades that used to have a very high book value. They are now common/dreck as the pop reports increased dramatically over the period of 2006 to now.
The older and key date coins do well. Nicer older (pre-1911) stuff does as well. Agreed that it's definitely a buyer's market, but only the newer coins need to be at "fire sale" pricing to actually sell.
Thanks all,
I'm going to restart this discussion on the "other channel," where it belongs. We appreciate your continued support for the Everett Silvertips !
It seems to me that coin shows are more geared towards wholesale between dealers than anything else, and "retail" has moved online. That might be why coin shows are shrinking and being less and less about retail.
Its more cost effective and you can reach a far larger audience selling coins online than at coin shows, and dealers are going to do what is going to make them a profit--they have to or the wont stay in business. Spending thousands of dollars to attend a major coin show and then having few retail customers show up isn't a recipe for success.
Shows are always going to be there, but probably less and less for retail and more so for wholesale.
Where the customers are, there the dealers will be also, and most customers are online nowadays.
@hchcoin said:
You guys got it all wrong. The dealers at shows who have tons of raw coins at affordable prices are making a killing. I sat at the Central States show and watched a FRIENDLY small time dealer make a ton of deals in the 1/2 hour I was at their table buying around 75 coins. A dealer came by and bought about $5,000 worth of stuff while I was sitting there as well. This was on the second day of the show. This guy was super busy and he was moving mostly RAW coins back near the budget section (my favorite by the way).
On the other hand, I saw a ton of large, national dealers with only high priced graded coins in their cases twittling their thumbs, reading the newspaper and playing solitaire on their phone (true story)! When I approached many of these tables I didn't even get a hello. If you want to sell some coins, start bringing the stuff people want to buy and act happy when someone comes to look at your coins. Stop trying to hit only home runs with these high priced graded coins and start hitting some singles and doubles with truly collector material. Build a relationship with me and then I will probably buy some high priced coins.
In addition, do you really think "newbies" are going to be buying these high priced graded coins when they are just starting out. For heavens sake, at least bring some lower priced stuff that will sell and attract some attention to your table. Some of those small dealers at the back of the show were packed with customers.
I had one big time dealer tell me they don't have enough space to bring their "low priced stuff". Really? I could fit my whole collection in a large suitcase. Bring a few binders of cool raw coins at great prices and stuff a few 2X2 boxes in your suitcase on your way out the door. You can't afford not to bring this material because it's what gets people to stop at your table.
I know a lot of you will say I am wrong, but I remember the shows back in the 70's as well as any of the people who keep talking about the good old days. That's when dealers actually seemed to cater to the small customers just as much as the big boys. If you want to sell some coins, break out the binders and the red 2X2 boxes and put your graded coins to the side for a show. Price your material to sell and have a friendly disposition and you will sell coins!!!!!! Why do you think the young new collectors are shopping on eBay? eBay has the lower priced coins they want at competitive prices.
I think the ANA should have a dealer seminar at the World's Fair of Money on Relationship Selling the day before the show opens. I have worked in sales and have been a sales trainer and good sales training can help even the seasoned professional improve sales. From my experience at shows, coin dealers need help learning how to sell.
I totally agree. My daughter and I just went to our first Coin Show in Sacramento (in April) and we ran in to a few of these "high end dealers" and we could see they didn't even want to waste their time with us. But the dealers that were friendly, we bought from
I understand that dealers spend thousands of dollars in time and money to attend a show but don't forget that your customers may have spent as much or more getting to the show and staying at the show. Travel, food, lodging, tolls, missing work, pain and suffering from wife = a lot of money
Funny, Stock market,Housing, collector cars at all time highs. Usually collectibles would follow the trend. Looks like the coin market is tied to PM's more than in the past plus the supply/demand factor. Good time to buy, however the best coins are locked up waiting for new highs.
@hchcoin said:
I understand that dealers spend thousands of dollars in time and money to attend a show but don't forget that your customers may have spent as much or more getting to the show and staying at the show. Travel, food, lodging, tolls, missing work, pain and suffering from wife = a lot of money
Another reason why so much business has shifted from coin shows to the internet.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I'm not bothering with the show today.
Even though it's local, there is precious little parking and the parking lot across the street is assiduously GUARDED with rent-a-cops.
They raised such a stink last year that I won't go back.
But it's a CLUB show so .....naturally..... they "cheap it out" on venues.
@hchcoin said:
I understand that dealers spend thousands of dollars in time and money to attend a show but don't forget that your customers may have spent as much or more getting to the show and staying at the show. Travel, food, lodging, tolls, missing work, pain and suffering from wife = a lot of money
Another reason why so much business has shifted from coin shows to the internet.
If I was a dealer with high end material at a show, I don't think I would want to be distracted by folks in the under $50 market.
However, there's no excuse for ignoring or writing off anyone who stops at your table regardless of how deep the pockets. Someday they may come back for that cameo gem proof seated dollar.
@Sonorandesertrat said:
"... It speaks to whims fads, and promotions..."
This has always been the case. Nothing has changed, except that the top 25% (I'm being quite generous) is sitting on a very weak 75% at this point. People are increasingly depending on gradeflation to bail them out; without this, even more prices would be stagnant or even sinking.
The corollary to the above is if that what you own / collect has been a victim of gradeflation, you're not going to be in a hurry to buy more of it just because it now sells at half of its former price.
"Vou invadir o Nordeste, "Seu cabra da peste, "Sou Mangueira......."
This sums it up pretty well. Except that it defines that irrationality that is the coin market.
There is no such thing as a "real reason to rise in value" unless you have figured out all aspects of the coin market supply and demand. Coin collecting is entirely discretionary. And the demand is decreasing.
And the balance of the next paragraph speaks to nothing that equates to a "real reason to rise in value". It speaks to whims fads, and promotions - varieties (they didn't use to be important), strike (it didn't use to matter much), foreign (some will, some might, most won't), key dates (of which series, '77 Indians and 09-SVDB are out of favor as are their respective series, and most are traded in very narrow ranges), and even choice original VF/XF/AU sets (who builds date sets anymore?).
There's ALWAYS a reason for "some" coins to rise in value. I've been finding them for almost 45 yrs. I had a laundry list of those coins from 1974-1979, hundreds of them. The problem was finding them more so than paying for them. I had so many bust, seated, and Barber coins on the list than it was having enough money rather than the coins that made it hard. Things like 1802 halves, 1804 dimes and quarters, were some of the easy coins that stuck out like sore thumbs. I wasn't even a choice/gem gold collector in 1979 yet I had dozens of $5/$10/$20 O and S mints Libs that were stupidly under-priced in the market place. Some of that was brought to the surface in the 1982 Eliasberg gold sale. The Eliasberg 1894-s $5 Lib was a coin with a "reason" to rise in value from 1979 to at least 2008. That was my favorite date in choice/gem gold back the. Even 10-15 years ago I could say the same thing about many coins. While it's harder today to find "sleepers," I have some coins on my current list, though have been lazy to go after them. You just have to research and look. Gem "O" and "S" mint better date seated quarters were high on my want lists in the early 1980's....I could only find 2. I was prepared to buy quite a few more had they shown up.
As collector/investor preferences shift, so do your "reasons" as to why a coin should rise in value. The hard part will be to find the coins at a good price....but they are always out there. Call it "irrational." I just call it probability and logic. Find what isn't really available...and not priced for what you think it should be....and buy those. The worst that will probably happen is that you break even. It could be worse.
Tell Wondercoin or Cladking that there's nothing "with a reason to rise in value" in gem Modern Coinage or even post 1933 stuff. That would be a lively discussion. And you likely won't get too many of WC's secret coins out of him.
@REALGATOR said:
If I was a dealer with high end material at a show, I don't think I would want to be distracted by folks in the under $50 market.
However, there's no excuse for ignoring or writing off anyone who stops at your table regardless of how deep the pockets. Someday they may come back for that cameo gem proof seated dollar.
I had a pocket full of cash and I buy high dollar coins as well as under $50 coins. That's the point I am trying to make. I tend to stop at the tables that are friendly to both ends of the market. I can't stand people who look down their noses at customers whether it's a coin show, an auction, a retailer, or a restaurant. If you act too busy or condescending for me, I will just keep on walking till I find someone who accepts my fiat as one of the bargains dealers told me.
As far as being distracted, I can guarantee you that the only distraction I would have been is from their cell phone, newspaper or solitaire Maybe I was at the show at a bad time (4 hours on Friday), but I saw a lot of these dealers sitting around talking to no one or just talking to one random person here or there. A few times I felt like I was trying to talk with one of my kids whose attention is 99% on their phone 99% of the time if you know what I mean.
If I was a dealer, I would much rather be talking to customers than just staring at my high priced inventory and talking to myself waiting for the big whale.
As we say in baseball, get em on, get em over, and get em home. Walks, steals and singles win games. If you only focus on the long ball, you are going to go through some tough times.
DesertRat: Changing underlying fundamentals is the key issue, not another retiring cohort of collectors. The problem is whether enough young and middle-aged people have interest and funds to actively participate in the hobby. The financial pressures that young people, right out of college, face are much greater than what I experienced in my 20's. There is also little to no job security, medical costs keep increasing, and many private employers are not contributing to pension funds. In this kind of environment, routinely spending $1K on a coin (at least every few months) seems a big stretch for many.
This explanation by SonoranDesertRat relates to all relatively expensive collectibles and art, not just to scarce coins. Conversely, people are living longer, especially those who can afford superb medical care. Many people keep buying coins while in their 70s and 80s. Wealthy elderly people of which there are many, have much to spend and they have usually already accounted for their children and grandchildren.
It is also true that in 1982, in 1996 and in 2009, people said some of the same things: not enough young people are interested, health care costs are exorbitant, people are more interested in video games, etc. In each case, coin prices rebounded.
DesertRat: In the latest issue of the MAC Advisory, Neil Musante[Who?] noted that the ANA has a total membership of just 24,000.
Over the last 20 years, the ANA has a lot of problems, including a tremendous amount of legal wrangling. Also, before the Internet era, the ANA was a key source of information for collectors. While the ANA still has a great deal of value and I encourage all collectors to join, the ANA is not as important in 2017 as it was in the 20th century.
As collector/investor preferences shift, so do your "reasons" as to why a coin should rise in value. The hard part will be to find the coins at a good price....but they are always out there. Call it "irrational." I just call it probability and logic. Find what isn't really available...and not priced for what you think it should be....and buy those. The worst that will probably happen is that you break even. It could be worse.
In other words, some coins are out of favor and may be underpriced compared to the day that they may be in favor. Everybody gets that. And buying coins for less than what they can be sold for is not a rise in value, it's the wholesale/retail or buy/sell spread aspect of all markets. Why will they someday be in favor? Is it because of changing tastes, whims, promotions or some other reason? What is the "real" reason.
In other words, some coins are out of favor and may be under-priced compared to the day that they may be in favor. Everybody gets that. And buying coins for less than what they can be sold for is not a rise in value, it's the wholesale/retail or buy/sell spread aspect of all markets. Why will they someday be in favor? Is it because of changing tastes, whims, promotions or some other reason? What is the "real" reason.
1847, 1853-0, 1874-cc and 1804 dimes, 1847-0, 1858-0, 1867-s and 1872-s quarters, and 1802 halves (to name a few) were perpetually under-rated from the 1970's to at least 2006-2008. I can name a hundred more coins if you like in that same situation....and none of them were typically the "key" dates of their series. They were NEVER out of favor. Just over-looked and underappreciated because too many collectors went by mintage figures or price guides....not how many were really extant. It literally took the price guides 30+ yrs to catch up. As soon as you bought them, you probably made money. These coins were perpetually under-priced for 35 years. It was easy to see in 1974, 1984, 1994 and even in 2004. That run is probably over for most of them. They will slug it out with other parts of the market from here.
But, I consider 35 yrs a pretty darn good "trend"....and a career in collecting for many. What are the next 35 year "trend" coins that will not lose value along the way? That's for each of us to find out and act upon. It has little to do with changing tastes, whims or promotions. No one needed to promote 1874-cc dimes from 1974-2008....they promoted themselves by being just plain rare. If there are enough for something to be promoted...that's probably not the Holy Grail. 1874-cc dimes will always be in favor. They just won't be under-rated like they were for over 30 years. But any one doing just simple research should be able to pick out Morgan dollars, SLQ's, Walkers, Jeffs, Bust, Barber, Seated material that still have very good reasons to rise in value. For that matter in any series really. Free money to be made on scarce varieties in many series that are not widely collected. Same for exceptional strikes, exceptional problem free surfaces on circs, and exceptional color in any grade range. Those aren't fads that will go out of style. First they have to get fully into style.
Sounds a lot like description of the stock and real estate markets; there are always examples of "good values for quality", even if the averages and majority of the market are down.
Comments
You guys got it all wrong. The dealers at shows who have tons of raw coins at affordable prices are making a killing. I sat at the Central States show and watched a FRIENDLY small time dealer make a ton of deals in the 1/2 hour I was at their table buying around 75 coins. A dealer came by and bought about $5,000 worth of stuff while I was sitting there as well. This was on the second day of the show. This guy was super busy and he was moving mostly RAW coins back near the budget section (my favorite by the way).
On the other hand, I saw a ton of large, national dealers with only high priced graded coins in their cases twittling their thumbs, reading the newspaper and playing solitaire on their phone (true story)! When I approached many of these tables I didn't even get a hello. If you want to sell some coins, start bringing the stuff people want to buy and act happy when someone comes to look at your coins. Stop trying to hit only home runs with these high priced graded coins and start hitting some singles and doubles with truly collector material. Build a relationship with me and then I will probably buy some high priced coins.
In addition, do you really think "newbies" are going to be buying these high priced graded coins when they are just starting out. For heavens sake, at least bring some lower priced stuff that will sell and attract some attention to your table. Some of those small dealers at the back of the show were packed with customers.
I had one big time dealer tell me they don't have enough space to bring their "low priced stuff". Really? I could fit my whole collection in a large suitcase. Bring a few binders of cool raw coins at great prices and stuff a few 2X2 boxes in your suitcase on your way out the door. You can't afford not to bring this material because it's what gets people to stop at your table.
I know a lot of you will say I am wrong, but I remember the shows back in the 70's as well as any of the people who keep talking about the good old days. That's when dealers actually seemed to cater to the small customers just as much as the big boys. If you want to sell some coins, break out the binders and the red 2X2 boxes and put your graded coins to the side for a show. Price your material to sell and have a friendly disposition and you will sell coins!!!!!! Why do you think the young new collectors are shopping on eBay? eBay has the lower priced coins they want at competitive prices.
I think the ANA should have a dealer seminar at the World's Fair of Money on Relationship Selling the day before the show opens. I have worked in sales and have been a sales trainer and good sales training can help even the seasoned professional improve sales. From my experience at shows, coin dealers need help learning how to sell.
Another example would be ASE. For the price of one quality key in the older series, collector can also choose at least one complete set of ASE . But some of us, still refuse to accept the trend and calling them modern junk.
Just concerned about thesword.> @EVillageProwler said:
When you work with a pro you get to lose your money more slowly.
Sorta like that boiling frog
I'm marketing a big tax break and the return of the prodigal 1%. And 2%. And 3%, I'm hedging by betting against this at Ladbroke's in London. And I'm hedging that by using MS67+ Norfolks (valued at full XF Ask) as collateral for my bet.
Making a killing? Probably not.
First, a 5K sale to a dealer probably means a small profit. And if the margins are good, the killing was probably made buying the coins elsewhere, not at the show.
Second, it will cost most dealers thousands of dollars in time and out-of-pocket expenses to prepare for and attend a show. You have to sell a lot of $50 coins to break even at a coin show, much less "make a killing".
Granted, there are a handful of dealers that do extremely well selling cheap coins at coin shows. But it is far from easy.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
You are missing my point. I am not saying don't bring your trophy coins. I am saying bring some collector stuff as well. I bought around 75 coins at the table, he also made about 5 more sales including the deal with the dealer in 1/2 hour on the second afternoon. This guy was doing really well. He was moving stuff.
My other point is this: When did coin shows become an exclusive country club? Have some of the dealers forgotten what it was like when they were just starting out or when they were just a collector on a modest budget? Most people don't start out collecting $10,000 coins right out of the gate. How hard is it to bring some coins that fit all budgets? I buy $1 coins and I buy $1,000+ coins. I don't want to only look at high priced graded coins. Maybe I am odd, but I love picking through a red box of 2X2's or an album of raw coins just as much as I enjoy buying an XF PCGS graded Draped Bust Quarter.
You got it. There will always be collectors who enjoy buying what they do.
I can understand the post about the raw coins because I am seeing more and more "albums" being mentioned.
I'd just like to know who is supporting the market for 66 and 67 S-mint common Morgans.
I do not sell coins, therefore I only read here about the 'market' from that perspective. I do buy coins... and the prices in general have tended to be stable.... some bargains... It seems the sellers are all waiting for the buyers to drive the 'market'. While I am not a coin dealer, I spent many years in business. I can tell you that sellers must drive the market - that is why they are called (to use an old term) 'market makers'. This can be done through pricing mainly... sure, good material is necessary, but selling is NOT sitting behind a table or storefront waiting for business to come to you. It must be sought, attracted, pulled in..... If sellers (dealers) do not drive the market it will continue to sink. Pricing and product - promoted loudly and widely - will bring business... Cheers, RickO
Love market bottoms whatever I can retail can get it or like material cheaper.
nevermind
I agree with a number of your comments. I find it comical when dealers list coins on eBay for hefty premiums over book, leave it at that price for months, and then complain about slow eBay sales. Quality pieces listed with a competitive BIN disappear very quickly. Most of my eBay coin purchases over the past 6 months were bought through BIN within 24 hours of the item being posted. Most of the items I lost out on were bought through BIN within 24 hours.
You know it's the bottom of the market when ...
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
This made me literally LOL. Thanks for the laugh
This sums it up pretty well. Except that it defines that irrationality that is the coin market.
There is no such thing as a "real reason to rise in value" unless you have figured out all aspects of the coin market supply and demand. Coin collecting is entirely discretionary. And the demand is decreasing.
And the balance of the next paragraph speaks to nothing that equates to a "real reason to rise in value". It speaks to whims fads, and promotions - varieties (they didn't use to be important), strike (it didn't use to matter much), foreign (some will, some might, most won't), key dates (of which series, '77 Indians and 09-SVDB are out of favor as are their respective series, and most are traded in very narrow ranges), and even choice original VF/XF/AU sets (who builds date sets anymore?).
"... It speaks to whims fads, and promotions..."
This has always been the case. Nothing has changed, except that the top 25% (I'm being quite generous) is sitting on a very weak 75% at this point. People are increasingly depending on gradeflation to bail them out; without this, even more prices would be stagnant or even sinking.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
Exactly my point - that there is no "real reason to rise in value".
Perhaps "real reason" should be changed to "determinant reason". Then, we might have more to talk about.
Without it, it's all supposition.
There are a great number of coins that have a fundamental reason to rise in value simply because hobbies are victims of fads. I was going to mention something like a La Salle Illinois tax "token" as something you can pick up for pennies and could easily soar in value since these were really state issued coins and had very low mintages. But eBay has one for sale at $35.00 now so I guess you can't find them for pennies any longer.
But it's the same across the board. While everyone's counting how many VAM's can dance on the heads of Morgans many US coins are going begging. The same applies to scarce world coins as well as various exonumia. People in the mainstream hobby don't see it but there are many coins that are exploding in value and demand. They've been out of style for decades or in some cases, forever, but collectors are looking for them now and have to bid up the price to acquire them.
Try finding a nice Gem La Salle token. Go ahead, try. There might be one but it won't be available on the market and it might get tossed in a junk box or even the garbage before it has a chance to sell. Just finding one with luster is a feat. If there were more than a few people looking you might not find one at all.
Everyone wants to collect what everyone else collects. Partly it's because we like to socialize over common interests but mostly it's just the perversity of human nature.
Thanks all,
I'm going to restart this discussion on the "other channel," where it belongs. We appreciate your continued support for the Everett Silvertips !
It seems to me that coin shows are more geared towards wholesale between dealers than anything else, and "retail" has moved online. That might be why coin shows are shrinking and being less and less about retail.
Its more cost effective and you can reach a far larger audience selling coins online than at coin shows, and dealers are going to do what is going to make them a profit--they have to or the wont stay in business. Spending thousands of dollars to attend a major coin show and then having few retail customers show up isn't a recipe for success.
Shows are always going to be there, but probably less and less for retail and more so for wholesale.
Where the customers are, there the dealers will be also, and most customers are online nowadays.
I totally agree. My daughter and I just went to our first Coin Show in Sacramento (in April) and we ran in to a few of these "high end dealers" and we could see they didn't even want to waste their time with us. But the dealers that were friendly, we bought from
I understand that dealers spend thousands of dollars in time and money to attend a show but don't forget that your customers may have spent as much or more getting to the show and staying at the show. Travel, food, lodging, tolls, missing work, pain and suffering from wife = a lot of money
Funny, Stock market,Housing, collector cars at all time highs. Usually collectibles would follow the trend. Looks like the coin market is tied to PM's more than in the past plus the supply/demand factor. Good time to buy, however the best coins are locked up waiting for new highs.
100% Positive BST transactions
Another reason why so much business has shifted from coin shows to the internet.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I'm not bothering with the show today.
Even though it's local, there is precious little parking and the parking lot across the street is assiduously GUARDED with rent-a-cops.
They raised such a stink last year that I won't go back.
But it's a CLUB show so .....naturally..... they "cheap it out" on venues.
True
If I was a dealer with high end material at a show, I don't think I would want to be distracted by folks in the under $50 market.
However, there's no excuse for ignoring or writing off anyone who stops at your table regardless of how deep the pockets. Someday they may come back for that cameo gem proof seated dollar.
The corollary to the above is if that what you own / collect has been a victim of gradeflation, you're not going to be in a hurry to buy more of it just because it now sells at half of its former price.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
There's ALWAYS a reason for "some" coins to rise in value. I've been finding them for almost 45 yrs. I had a laundry list of those coins from 1974-1979, hundreds of them. The problem was finding them more so than paying for them. I had so many bust, seated, and Barber coins on the list than it was having enough money rather than the coins that made it hard. Things like 1802 halves, 1804 dimes and quarters, were some of the easy coins that stuck out like sore thumbs. I wasn't even a choice/gem gold collector in 1979 yet I had dozens of $5/$10/$20 O and S mints Libs that were stupidly under-priced in the market place. Some of that was brought to the surface in the 1982 Eliasberg gold sale. The Eliasberg 1894-s $5 Lib was a coin with a "reason" to rise in value from 1979 to at least 2008. That was my favorite date in choice/gem gold back the. Even 10-15 years ago I could say the same thing about many coins. While it's harder today to find "sleepers," I have some coins on my current list, though have been lazy to go after them. You just have to research and look. Gem "O" and "S" mint better date seated quarters were high on my want lists in the early 1980's....I could only find 2. I was prepared to buy quite a few more had they shown up.
As collector/investor preferences shift, so do your "reasons" as to why a coin should rise in value. The hard part will be to find the coins at a good price....but they are always out there. Call it "irrational." I just call it probability and logic. Find what isn't really available...and not priced for what you think it should be....and buy those. The worst that will probably happen is that you break even. It could be worse.
Tell Wondercoin or Cladking that there's nothing "with a reason to rise in value" in gem Modern Coinage or even post 1933 stuff. That would be a lively discussion. And you likely won't get too many of WC's secret coins out of him.
I had a pocket full of cash and I buy high dollar coins as well as under $50 coins. That's the point I am trying to make. I tend to stop at the tables that are friendly to both ends of the market. I can't stand people who look down their noses at customers whether it's a coin show, an auction, a retailer, or a restaurant. If you act too busy or condescending for me, I will just keep on walking till I find someone who accepts my fiat as one of the bargains dealers told me.
As far as being distracted, I can guarantee you that the only distraction I would have been is from their cell phone, newspaper or solitaire
Maybe I was at the show at a bad time (4 hours on Friday), but I saw a lot of these dealers sitting around talking to no one or just talking to one random person here or there. A few times I felt like I was trying to talk with one of my kids whose attention is 99% on their phone 99% of the time if you know what I mean.
If I was a dealer, I would much rather be talking to customers than just staring at my high priced inventory and talking to myself waiting for the big whale.
As we say in baseball, get em on, get em over, and get em home. Walks, steals and singles win games. If you only focus on the long ball, you are going to go through some tough times.
DesertRat:
This explanation by SonoranDesertRat relates to all relatively expensive collectibles and art, not just to scarce coins. Conversely, people are living longer, especially those who can afford superb medical care. Many people keep buying coins while in their 70s and 80s. Wealthy elderly people of which there are many, have much to spend and they have usually already accounted for their children and grandchildren.
It is also true that in 1982, in 1996 and in 2009, people said some of the same things: not enough young people are interested, health care costs are exorbitant, people are more interested in video games, etc. In each case, coin prices rebounded.
DesertRat:
Over the last 20 years, the ANA has a lot of problems, including a tremendous amount of legal wrangling. Also, before the Internet era, the ANA was a key source of information for collectors. While the ANA still has a great deal of value and I encourage all collectors to join, the ANA is not as important in 2017 as it was in the 20th century.
An article that I wrote in 2010 is extremely pertinent to the issue of the number of collectors
In other words, some coins are out of favor and may be underpriced compared to the day that they may be in favor. Everybody gets that. And buying coins for less than what they can be sold for is not a rise in value, it's the wholesale/retail or buy/sell spread aspect of all markets. Why will they someday be in favor? Is it because of changing tastes, whims, promotions or some other reason? What is the "real" reason.
1847, 1853-0, 1874-cc and 1804 dimes, 1847-0, 1858-0, 1867-s and 1872-s quarters, and 1802 halves (to name a few) were perpetually under-rated from the 1970's to at least 2006-2008. I can name a hundred more coins if you like in that same situation....and none of them were typically the "key" dates of their series. They were NEVER out of favor. Just over-looked and underappreciated because too many collectors went by mintage figures or price guides....not how many were really extant. It literally took the price guides 30+ yrs to catch up. As soon as you bought them, you probably made money. These coins were perpetually under-priced for 35 years. It was easy to see in 1974, 1984, 1994 and even in 2004. That run is probably over for most of them. They will slug it out with other parts of the market from here.
But, I consider 35 yrs a pretty darn good "trend"....and a career in collecting for many. What are the next 35 year "trend" coins that will not lose value along the way? That's for each of us to find out and act upon. It has little to do with changing tastes, whims or promotions. No one needed to promote 1874-cc dimes from 1974-2008....they promoted themselves by being just plain rare. If there are enough for something to be promoted...that's probably not the Holy Grail. 1874-cc dimes will always be in favor. They just won't be under-rated like they were for over 30 years. But any one doing just simple research should be able to pick out Morgan dollars, SLQ's, Walkers, Jeffs, Bust, Barber, Seated material that still have very good reasons to rise in value. For that matter in any series really. Free money to be made on scarce varieties in many series that are not widely collected. Same for exceptional strikes, exceptional problem free surfaces on circs, and exceptional color in any grade range. Those aren't fads that will go out of style. First they have to get fully into style.
Sounds a lot like description of the stock and real estate markets; there are always examples of "good values for quality", even if the averages and majority of the market are down.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry