Legend Report—how perfect (or imperfect) is the coin market if it’s tied to other circumstances?
Longacre
Posts: 16,717 ✭✭✭
I was reading the latest Legend Market Report with interest. In it, the writer states:
“Pogue will be a record breaker. While several coins may not realize the hyper inflated prices Pogue paid (that is a story in itself), the prices they will realize will still be in record territory. This segment of the sale was postponed because of weakness only 6 months ago. Today, with the stock market up a few trillion (smart money seems to have pulled out and are looking for other areas) and with no other big auctions on the horizon, the sale will be packed and bidding WILL be ferocious. What difference timing made here.”
This statement leads Longacre to conclude that the coin market is even more excessively thin than he had previously thought. Arguably, the Pogue coins are the greatest coin collection ever assembled. One would think that anything of Pogue-caliber would bring strong prices and generate strong demand at any point in time.
How thin truly is the coin market that it would take a zooming stock market, a creation of wealth not related to coins, and then a desire for non-collectors to put their money in an area that’s not stocks, for an auction of Pogue-level coins to be successful? What does that say about the common dreck that the 99.9%-ers collect?
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
Comments
"What does that say about the common dreck that the 99.9%-ers collect?"
We're not quite at the 'spend'em, Danno' stage, but most coins aren't holding their values when inflation is factored in. Many series have been in the tank for years, and are on life support (excluding wildly colored coins). Populations of gem+ grade coins are increasing, further eroding values. CAC has not helped--many collectors ask WHY isn't a piece offered for sale beaned, as if it might be untouchable. A market flooded with non-CACed coins isn't healthy if they are deemed illiquid by the masses. Furthermore, what many collectors and dealers seem to be chasing are coins that look undergraded or so nice for a grade that they might get a bump in the near future. Having to bet on gradeflation to maintain a coin's value is not a comforting thought.
The market for anything (coins, stamps, rare books, etc.) that cannot be hung on a wall, set up on a floor or table, etc., and displayed for friends to oogle/drool over, is THIN.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
"While several coins may not realize the hyper inflated prices Pogue paid" _ I wonder WHO sold them at hyper inflated prices to begin with ???? Just curious....
WS
I'd like to know why or how Pogue "paid hyper-inflated" prices for some of their coins. I would assume those aren't coins that David Akers participated in. And if Pogue, being in the market for 35 yrs or more, with some of the best advisors in the business is paying hyper-inflated prices for some coins, what does that mean for those people "only" spending hundreds to thousands of dollars for each coin? If we're talking about finest knowns bought out of Newman or Gardner for monster prices and now trying to sell them 2-3 yrs later....I can understand that. If Pogue and Gardner were subject to such effects, wouldn't any other top dog collection builder be as well?
The coin market has always been heavily tied to the stock market and associated business/economic cycles. Stocks and generally coins, don't do well in recessions. The state of the bullion markets is also a big player in the "health" of the rare coin market....been that way since August 1971.
By most economic measures, the "coin market" is the poster child for "thin." The skinniest runway models are obese gluttons compared to the "rare coin market."
Collect for enjoyment, history, knowledge and connection.
I'll claim ignorance on what it takes to make a Pogue-level auction fly....
But I think it's a mistake to throw a Pogue-level coin/collection into the same conversation as a "common collector dreck" piece.
Different market, different market forces. The first depends on big available $$, and a few willing to spend it....the second just depends on a large enough collector base to support the asking price. (Already been a few threads debating THAT....but I don't think it's directly tied to the stock market).
My thoughts and questions, exactly! Thanks RR, Watersports & Sonora!
Well, just Love coins, period.
Longacre should buy the entire Pogue collection and just get it over with!
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Legend coins are mostly targeted to small group of well to do collectors ..yes stock market has in effect , it has created a lot of fun money to spend/invest else where....last 5 years
Stock market effect ? look at the low coin prices from the crash created 2008-2009
Hard to invest in coins over long run .. buying at retail and selling at wholesale
The arrival or departure of a single "whale" in the Mt. Everest (or at least K2) portion of the coin market can cause wild price swings. The very high end dealers know who is active and who is not so take out your copy of PRAVDA and read it carefully.
All it takes is one whale and a potted plant and you have a bull market in coins.
I've often wondered just how active the potted plants are in the coin auction market. Quite a few years back I was involved with oriental rugs and used two different auction houses in an attempt (note the word attempt) to sell some of them. In both cases I sat in the auction and thought I saw all of the rugs sell. Well, the potted plants must have been especially active in those auctions because in one case all of the rugs were returned unsold and in the other half of the rugs were returned unsold. The rugs that did sell at the second auction all went very cheap vs. my cost. (I later sold most of the rugs on eBay. They sold but the loss was substantial. I have never touched another oriental rug since.)
Don't forget the fertilizer......for the potted plant.
I was able to pick up a nice CBH, because its former owner got rid of it when he picked up one in a higher grade from the Pogue auction I'm guessing in early 2016. Others may be able to do likewise.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
same thing .. Buying re
My dealer friend accidentally spilled the beans about his best customer .. He said his best customer ..the one that doesn't use max bid limits ..spent over a 7 figure amount on coins in 2016 ..for coins he bought at auction or from dealer himself acting as middleman .. Whale indeed
Why are soooo many collectors soooo concerned about coins that real people cannot afford to buy to begin with?
Unfortunately it seems that the concept of quality for the grade needs to be reconsidered with greater emphasis that coins matter
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
I'm no whale, but always go on a buying spree after making a bundle in the stock market or when PM bullion spikes. It's not hard to imagine collectors at all levels doing similar, in general and aggregate terms.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
That concept directly impacts considerations involving future upgrade potential. If it's nearly zilch (meaning the coin looks like a B or C (vs. A) grade), then go sanitize your hands and move on.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
I believe that the half cents from the Missouri Cabinet sale were extremely high for some of the common coins.
Coin Junkie
cameoproofcoins.com
The market always boils down to two things... available funds and demand for product. Take either away and you have no market. Cheers, RickO
If the market is over saturated with material and sellers liquidating with a smaller base of people who will pay the money there is very little retail and no upward market movement except items tied to bullion. Eventually the bids fall until demand catches up with supply. Of course many coins will be repackaged or stickered but like a fading blonde a trip to the beauty shop is not enough to head off unfavorable market conditions.
If you are not popular and you are a whale, yes you can be run up.
After the ridiculous Blue Moon today, Pogue will be what Legend said.
What was ridiculous???
Everything strong except the 1794$1. I got blown out of the water on all six Gobrecht dollars that I bid on
I thought a lot of the proof set stuff went for so so. True original didn't seem to play well if it didn't have that sparkle. Some of the gold as well.
There's no doubt that people spend more freely on coins when they are feeling richer, as they are now. And there's no doubt that some people are taking profits in the stock market and looking for a place to put the money. However, none of this has anything to do with the market being "thin". Even if every person on the face of the earth collected coins, the stock market would have a similar impact on the coin market.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
at Hammer: a 5C 1903 PCGS PR66 CAM at $3,800.00, a 1897 10C PCGS PR67 selling for $6+ G, a 1880 PCGS PR65 DC CAC TD selling for $15G , as TDN said the Gobrechts selling stupid-for dark but extremely rare coins. The 1888 Pr set brought $29G -which is 2.5x what the grades relate.
In the end it was like throwing fresh meat to hungry lions-did not matter too much what the coins looked like.
legend was dead on about pogue too-no one expected the prices realized
Legend cost me probably 750.000 USD in Pogue and I cost them some USD too. We were bidding on the same coins all the time. They just were bidding totally insane prices on the coins I needed, like the 1793 Liberty Cap PCGS 58 they got at 940k and I think the coin is worth 450k. I think from 450k to 940k it was just Legend and me - I was the underbidder.