Trying to Understand the PCGS Price Guide vs Auction Results
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I am looking at a coin in the current PCGS Price Guide that in MS-65 has a stated value of $3,900.00 The subject coin in a MS 65 PCGS holder sold at two different 2017 FUN auctions for $2,585, $2,703, and $2,820. Those were the complete sales of MS 65 PCGS coins for this particular coin in the January 2017 FUN Auctions.
So my questions are [and I don't know why the font size explodes as I post this]:
1. Is the Price Guide just not up to date?
2. Do published auction prices fail to include the buyer's fee?
3. Are auction prices considered "wholesale" prices even though the general public can bid in them?
4. If the PCGS Price guide is based on something else other than published auction prices realized, what is it?
The average auction price for the subject coin is thus $2,702.00. Can I expect that to be the price shown in the PCGS Price Guide once it is updated?
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Comments
Most price guides are a weighted average of past prices, with a weight that declines as you get deeper in the past.
So there would be some weight given to transactions prior to 2017.
It is done this way because often true values are changing slowly, but there is a random noise component at each auction, depending on how many bidders there are.
So there is a tradeoff between using only the most recent result(s) and including more observations in the average to smooth out the random noise component.
The PCGS Auction Prices Realized data do include the buyer's premium, although there might be a few transactions where it has been left out by mistake.
Those pricegide valuations do go both ways!
I never put much stock in price guides.... seems they can be all over the spectrum. Certainly a data point... but not one I would use as a sole input. Cheers, RickO
Auction prices are liquidation and generally vary but I would say 65 - 70 pct of market retail on average based on my studies / calculation.
I look at TPG price guides, CW Trends. Dealer price lists and cost plus in pricing material for sale. For wholesale I refer to the CCDN - CDN range.
In bidding in eBay auctions I generally bid 60-70 pct of what I plan to sell an item for. Due to current market conditions I have won many items below CDN bid.
You do not state the data for your $3900 item description / date / demom / grade. For instance what is CDN bid? What is CW Trends? NN coin market? Many times price guides can lag behind changes in CDN so one needs consider multiple sources. PCGS has a fantastic, very reliable price guide and is certainly the first source I go to.
So my asking price could be TPG price guide based, cost plus, CDN plus, or similar to what a dealer is asking for the same item.
For the vast majority of the classic slabbed coin market, PCGS price guide is a MAX retail guide. It's generally 50% above dealer's buy prices. Figure most larger dealers who constantly move inventory, will pay 60-70% for most coins based on PCGS price guide. This doesn't include moderns, super high grades on very common coins, or scarce coins like key dates and popular type coins like XF/AU bust dollars, etc.
Tough coins to find and high quality original ones often bring 80-120% of price guide. Sometimes 2X to 3X price guide at extremes. Super common dreck (like a BU 1958 wheat cent) might be lucky to get 20-30% of price guide. But, for most coins in the $100-$3,000 range, the 60-70% rule works fairly well. It's a good start. There is no set rule on how price guide applies to any coin in question. But we'd all love to be able to mark up our coins 50% above wholesale when selling them.![:) :)](https://forums.collectors.com/resources/emoji/smile.png)
That coin is "worth" about the average of those 3 auction prices. The average of those 3 prices is $2702....or....69.3% of PCGS price guide.....right on target. I'd be tickled pink to get $3,900 for that coin.
I agree......when in doubt on kind of common/semi-common stuff I'll go 40% of guide and "retail" at 60-70%.![:) :)](https://forums.collectors.com/resources/emoji/smile.png)
That way the buyer thinks they're getting a deal by undercutting price guide.
There is little "good-ole-days-retail" anymore......unless you are Littleton or just plain lucky.....
I remember someone saying in a previous thread that wholesale is the new retail and that is very true.
But then we need to come up with a term for what used to be called "wholesale."
Thanks all. Appreciate both the collector and dealer perspectives that have been shared.
Only thing I know is it usually costs more than Price Guide if I want it.
I use recent auction results. I get a much better handle on current prices. The price guide is just ballpark. JMO
lol...+1
Mannie:
I do not think so. Most trading at major coin shows is dealer-to-dealer. Retail-dealers often buy or receive coins 'on memo' from wholesalers.
Cougar1978 :
I agree with Cougar and Roadrunner to the extent that it is often true that auction prices are 65 to 70% of retail levels. I am not sure about the use of the word 'average' in this context. I have been writing auction reviews for more than 20 years, including hundreds of them in Numismatic News, CoinLink and CoinWeek.
In the framework of major coin auctions (not EBay auctions), on average, auction prices are around the border of wholesale and retail price ranges, thus moderate prices. If the average was well in the wholesale range, there would be no point in incurring the expenses to hold the auctions. The coins could just be sold at shows, sent on memo to retail dealers, or traded by other means. Much wholesale and retail trading does occur quietly behind the scenes.
A moderate auction price is around the wholesale-retail border, a little below or a little above. If a dealer thinks that it is likely he has a coin sold, he will pay a little more than a wholesale price that other dealers would pay.
A weak price is clearly a wholesale price. A strong auction price has nothing to do with the strength of the market. Most of the prices in an auction can be strong if market prices are falling. A strong price in an auction is a retail price, and usually comes about through direct and/or indirect collector participation.
What are Auction Prices?
I didn't link auction prices directly with PCGS price guide in any of my posts. So I'm not sure how that conclusion was met by Analyst. PCGS price guide is just a general market guide. It's up to each of us to determine what "market" price is and "where" that market is. 60-70% of PCGS price guide will work for the majority of desirable coin transactions in the market place. The other key is knowing the 30-40% of the time where it doesn't work like that. And auctions are potentially one of those "wheres" (or places) where Price Guide may not work as well.
I desire to own a particular coin. I consult the price guide, enter a bid at auction and win the coin for 70% of the guide price. I pat myself on the back for being so shrewd. A couple months later I notice the guide has been adjusted to reflect (my) recent auction result, the only recent auction sale price available. I now own the coin at 100% of the (new) price guide level.
In some stuff, it's a rather wide, constantly moving target.
PCGS' .....Top....priority should be to get their "guide" as current as possible as quickly as they can.
It should be called a "guide" for a reason.
New collectors are turned off very quickly by unreliable "guides."
THE "guide" the Redbook has been a joke for decades, but it has widely been KNOWN that it isn't a reliable pricing source.
But PCGS couldn't do anything WORSE than have the "guide" published by the GRADING company be something collectors can't "trust."
You to click on the results of some very low auction prices. If coin is graded "Unc. details" with a problem that results in a no grade, that coin is listed in the MS-60 column. It is misleading if you don't investigate the circumstances.
As for auction prices in general, I don't think that they are the "wholesale price" any more for really choice material. Some coins just aren't offered via private treaty these days. The auction price is the retail price because the buyer is the ultimate consumer.
Yes, those coins in problem holders should NEVER show up in CoinFacts in the pricing information section. Yet..... they always do. It may have something to do with how the auction houses list them and computers automatically sucking in bad information. Should be an easy fix if someone's paying attention.
Roadrunner: The PCGS price guide is
I then said, 'I agree with Cougar and Roadrunner to the extent that it is often true that auction prices are 65 to 70% of retail levels. I am not sure about the use of the word 'average' in this context.'
Roadrunner:
It sounded like Roadrunner was implying that PCGS price guide values are usually, though not always, retail prices and Roadrunner explicitly said
, with particular categories of coins logically excluded by Roadrunner in this statement. While I am not sure how many PCGS guide values are accurate retail estimates or are intended to be retail estimates, I was citing Roadrunner in this regard to illustrate the concept that leading, active dealers will often pay 60-70% of retail levels and auction prices often reach that range or go higher.My immediate point is that some collectors and dealers tend to think of all auction prices as "market prices" or as "the values of coins." While most participants in this thread, including Roadrunner and Cougar, seem to understand that some auction prices are at wholesale levels and other auction prices are at retail levels, there are many collectors, including perhaps readers of this thread, who do not understand this point, which is extremely important.
Roadrunner:
As the coins that I research would not be representative of a majority, in absolute terms, of all coins listed in the PCGS price guide, I am not prepared to comment on the accuracy of the PCGS price guide overall. Years ago, it seemed that the PCGS price guide was clearly intended to list retail values. In more recent times, PCGS price guide values are often adjusted for auction results, and I hope that careful interpretations of such auction results are undertaken before such adjustments occur. When analyzing an auction result, there is a need to think about whether it is a weak price (wholesale), moderate price (wholesale/retail border area) or a strong price (retail).
It would also make sense for our hosts to form a consensus and be consistent about whether they intend for the PCGS price guide to be indicative of wholesale, moderate or retail levels. Two of the other price guides are much more clear in this regard, though I am not endorsing any price guide here. They all have notable imperfections.
What are Auction Prices?
When I paid in excess of $300k each for the gem 1851 and 1852 seated dollars, Pcgs price guide was $125k each. Who was more stupid? Lol
I would agree if Coinfacts didn't link to the actual auction, but because they do in most cases I think seeing what problem coins trade for as opposed to straight graded coins is helpful. PCGS at least uses some consistency and usually only puts the details coins in the lowest level of each grade F12, XF40 etc. It can be very helpful in determining how the severity of the problem is reflected in price.
Monster toned coins, Gold CAC coins and old holders all show up in auction results and often create wild swings in price. I still know people who use Coinfacts and don't look at the actual auction. The links are there for a reason.
My Ebay Store
I still don't think a *.92 coin should show a price in the MS60 column. Yes it's good to have the data for reference, but put it somewhere else or mark it with an asterisk..... something! It takes a long time to look through each data point and many of the links to smaller auctions don't work.
In deciding to bid and what to bid on say an auction I like to not only look at CF - PCGS MV, Auction Prices, in addition I consider CDN Bid, CW Trends, NN Coin Market, and dealer sell ads - where are they vs CDN Bid? But to keep it simple sometimes just the Big 3 - TPG MV, Auction, and CDN - CCDN spread. Ultimately if one buys a truly outstanding coin (a subjective definition could be low pop, rainbow, etc) outside of the ranges then the equation defaults to cost +.
If one is going to consider auction prices, you will need to look at the individual coins to see if there is any quality factor good or bad which may have influenced the result - rainbow toning or some ugly toned piece which brought inferior results. Just doing math to get an average auction number does not really cut it and would be a methodology I fundamentally disagree with if the why of the results from individual pieces is not considered. In addition what is the CDN / CCDN spread for the coin in question. Rainbow toned coins are of course a different animal with their following and folks who won't touch them at some of those prices.
In the old days the best reference I can think of is the old TTR Price guide with the Average, Low, and High.
TDN:
Even the best of price guides will contain many inaccuracies. Without a very large, knowledgeable staff, it would be impossible to frequently update all listings.
Prices paid in reality may be much higher than guide values for at least three reasons. First, market values may have risen. Second, the buyer may have paid above-market prices. Third, some values in any price guide may be wrong, over time, in a factual sense. These factors are not mutually exclusive. All three could play a role in some cases.
I saw those two dollars in Anaheim. I do not know any dealer who would, if he had the opportunity, have sold either of those two Liberty Seated dollars for a price close to 125k. It seems to me that the guide values were wrong; they were too low. Some people take price guides too seriously. Collectors who are not as knowledgeable as TDN should consult experts before buying expensive rarities.
Guides are merely guides... These are estimated values that should never be construed as to be written in cement.
Auction results are merely a snapshot at that moment in time with those participants that reflects their evaluation as to what they collectively were willing to pay. Look at the coin that was auctioned and draw your own conclusions as to grade and quality and whether the hammer is reflective of the attributes of the coin.
Coins have a range in value. Do not expect every coin graded at x is worth y because not all coins graded x are created equal so y will vary based on subjective factors that do not translate well in math formulas. You may not like this but that is how it works...
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
There are two reasons you put a coin into an auction.
Either way, the buyer is usually hosed. :-)
CoinKat:
Yes, I believe that my posts and those by others in this thread are consistent with this statement by CoinKat. I meant to imply that beginners or casual collectors often take price guides too literally as very accurately reflective of market levels. They often mis-interpret auction results, too, as I sought to indicate in a post above.
Elmira:
This statement is not illuminating, and is beside the reality that, in the same major auction, some coins will sell for wholesale prices while other coins sell for retail prices. If all the bidders for one lot are dealers seeking to inventory the respective coin, then it will probably not sell for a retail price. If three or more non-dealing collectors are eagerly bidding on the next lot, then it will likely sell for a retail price. In many cases, intelligence, experience and knowledge are required to fairly interpret an auction result.
What are Auction Prices?
Good read Greg. I especially liked this quote from John Albanese and the last sentence:
“Usually, you do not really know why a coin sells for a price at auction,” Albanese states. “It could have been in an old [PCGS or NGC] holder and be bought just to upgrade. A dealer who is getting his 5% commission may push a collector to buy a coin so the [dealer-agent] gets paid. A coin may also bring too low a price at auction if only wholesalers, not collectors or retailers, bid on it. I [John] do not rely on auction prices. Auction records are number four on my list of sources to price a coin.”
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Elmira:
In multiple posts to this thread, I honestly tried to shed light on the meaning of auction prices, and the differences among auction prices in single major auctions. Over time, I have been trying hard to educate people about this concept, which I believe is very important. Indeed, many coin collectors read auction prices realized on PCGS CoinFacts and on the web sites of auction firms. Collectors care about the values of their respective coins and about the costs of collecting. It is important to discuss the meaning of auction prices and how to interpret them.
As it is so obvious that just stating that "auction prices are real" is not illuminating and is not helpful, it was fair for me to become frustrated. It was certainly not my intention to insult anyone, and I do not think that I did so. Elmira's response is unnecessarily acidic and could possibly be interpreted as bashing. After I put considerable time and effort into the crafting of my posts to this thread, it is disappointing to read an empty sound bite about the very topic that is being raised in the original post and addressed in my posts.
I have been covering coin auctions for more than twenty years. I have contributed hundreds of coin auction reviews to Numismatic News newspaper, CoinLink and CoinWeek.com. My auction coverage has won awards from the NLG. In the past, I wrote an entire article on the meaning of auction prices. If people disagree with my approach, then let us please discuss auction phenomena in a civil manner.
What are Auction Prices?
you really need a dealer to know what the prices mean. one coin could $5G and the same a month later $7G.lots of variables-but it auction prices show a good estimate on where the market is
It works the other way too. I spotted an OGH 1874-s 25c PCGS MS66 coming up in a Heritage sale. The coin was wonderful and I graded it 66++. I felt it had a decent shot to upgrade....and was hoping to pay not more than 10-20% over current 66 money which was around $6000. Paying $8K would have been fine for me. As it was, it sold for around $9500 which was just too much risk for so little upside. A few months later the same coin is back in a Heritage auction, now as an NGC MS67. That at least removed the grade risk. The coin is "bid" on blue sheet for around $14K. As I recall the coin doesn't sell at auction as MS67 after getting bid up to around $10,500.
A couple months later the bid drops to $12K. I call up Heritage and offer to pay $11K or so figuring they would be happy to take a profit on the coin. I still liked the coin as a MS67. A deal is struck and within a month of that "transaction" the blue sheet drops to $10,500...lol. So what happened to those "guys" "bidding" $12K and $14K on that coin.....
...and that's a rhetorical question.
Caddyshack:
(A) This statement shows a mis-interpretation of auctions in general, not just of coin auctions. When a group of houses are sold at auction, perhaps due to foreclosures, some of the bidders may be people who hope to live in one of the houses offered, but most of the bidders will be dealers seeking to re-sell the respective houses. They will seek to pay a wholesale price for each house at the auction and then later sell the house to someone or a couple who seek to live in it. Of course, a house in the same auction may sell for a retail price if two or more families compete for it. It is not unusual for both wholesale prices and retail prices to e realized in the same auction.
The same is true at many car auctions. I knew a car dealer who bought cars at auctions, for wholesale prices, and retailed them to people who were seeking to own the respective cars to drive them.
In many auctions, most of the lots are purchased by dealers who rationally plan to sell them for more than the auction prices, often to other dealers. There are coins that are sold a day or two after an auction for significantly more than the same coins realized at auction, while other coins in the same auction may have sold for high retail prices. It is not accurate to refer to all prices realized as "market prices," without distinguish wholesale prices from retail prices. The numismedia.com price guide makes such a distinction, though I am not endorsing any price guide.
(B) It is not logical to conclude that there are no wholesale prices paid for goods in an environment in which the general public can participate.
Members of the general public can attend virtually all coin shows, yet much trading at shows is dealer-to-dealer, usually at wholesale prices. Frequently, wholesale trades occur while collectors are watching or standing nearby. It would be ridiculous for Caddyshack to suggest that, because retail buyers are eligible or have the opportunity to buy, that prices paid cannot be at wholesale levels.
While there are some wholesalers who will quote a retail price to a collector and a wholesale price for the same coin to other dealers, other coin-wholesalers will quote wholesale prices to everyone. This would not be unusual at a major coin show, though I am certainly not suggesting that collectors buy from the wholesalers, who (like auction cataloguers) will often not disclose many of the positive and negative aspects of coins being offered.
The fact that any able member of the general public can buy from some wholesalers at major coin shows does not affect the reality that a wholesale price is a wholesale price, below a level that multiple collectors somewhere would be willing to spend for the same coin.
The price realized for an auction lot is function of those who are bidding on the lot, not a function of those who could practically do so if they had decided to participate. There are many collectors who like to view coins at their leisure before deciding whether to buy. There are additional collectors who avoid auctions for other reasons.
What are Auction Prices?