What could boost gold in 2017?
derryb
Posts: 36,823 ✭✭✭✭✭
No doubt the globalists have won. . . for now. What happens "there" affects us here. What are the possible events that could have a positive affect on US gold prices in 2017?
Here's my list of some of the possibilities:
1. Rising interest rates blow up worldwide bond markets. There are trillions of dollars in sovereign debt (as well as interest rate) related derivatives that will take a hit, causing a massive worldwide bank crisis. Very likely.
2. Unexpected euroland solidarity. From banking to immigration the smaller countries want out. Will the EU survive. Will Brexit be reversed? Weak euro equals strong dollar/weak gold. Good news in europe is good news for gold. Not very likely.
3. FED uncertainty. It says it will raise rates a number of times in 2017 but will they do a 180 as they did in 2016? Their failure to follow through in 2016 led to a gold rally most of the year. Very likely.
4. Weaker dollar index. FED is goosing the dollar, at a growing cost to US exports/jobs, to stimulate worldwide US dollar (and US debt) demand. How long before we see a reverse in this trend? Goosing of the dollar to create US debt demand tells us our central planners see a crisis ahead. Likely.
5. More US dollar printing. Is the US economy really on strong footing or has it been "fake news?" Will the decline in foreign demand for US debt require more new US dollars for the FED to spend on unwanted US debt? Very likely.
6. Escalation in the Syrian Conflict between the US and Russia. This is ground zero for the war mongers who wish to see direct conflict between two nuclear super powers. I predict cooler heads will prevail. Not likely.
7. Rapid decline in US markets (equity, bond or real estate). Debt will continue to cast gloom over productivity and at some point there could be a rapidly developing rush to safehaven. Gold provides this safety in times of crisis. Likely.
Note: I do not see a major US economic policy shift just because a few new faces present it to us. While the puppets may come and go the nameless string pullers behind the scene do not relinquish power. For this reason the "game" (and destructive path) will remain the same. The only thing that ever seems to change is where the money gets wasted.
So what do you see as the strong contenders that could boost gold? Bonus points for those that actually try to answer the question.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Comments
What could boost gold in 2017?
Alot of things possibly "could", but none will...
I do not see any of your 5 possibilities occurring in 2017, as such, PM's will remain flat with occasional 10-15% moves in either direction. Logic is no longer relevant in predicting PM movements, however when an asset is considered undervalued, the possibility for a profit, garners strange bedfellows.
Why all the fuss anyways about insurance??? Time waster...
To answer the question of the title, U.S. led War!
More buyers than sellers.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
or more precisely, more (sustained) buying volume than selling volume
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
When demand exceeds supply.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
If the dollar crashes....Cheers, RickO
https://northmantrader.com/2017/01/01/2016-market-review-party-hardy/
"Party-hardy" could effect PM prices in 2017. Armstrong's ECM model is somewhat positive for stocks through fall of 2017....and therefore bearish towards PMs.
Gold and silver are spiking UP right now.... after a big dip. Cheers, RickO
jobs report due 1/6. Gold tends to decline leading up to it. We'll see.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
High demand by new players.
How about the collapse of China
https://youtu.be/12kSAOWIs5k
People tapping out.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
A major black swan event..... Cheers, RickO
A trump statement or action that shakes up the markets just a wee bit if only temporary.
And if this is in what gold's hope lies, be scared.
EU? No looming debtmergency now. Deutsche Bank? Back to $19 today! China running from our debt & Santelli noting bid to cover is only over 2? Note bid to cover is still over 2.
Maybe Russia will invade someplace. That seems like the best short-term hope right now.
We are already experiencing China's slowdown. No one has admitted it yet, though.
2017 forecast from Nomi Prins
First Half: Rising Dollar/ Sideways Gold, Second Half: Reverse and Cash
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Their $10 trillion infrastructure fix appears to have only been temporary. Lesson to be learned.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
What could boost gold in 2017?
Liberal Dems in panic mode. Some are already buying their first gun readying for the supposed teotwawki.
What do you think?
Druckenmiller buys back gold
March 15th = Chaos Across the Globe
Shouldn't the chart read Jan 2017?
100% Positive BST transactions
A debt ceiling increase in March to anything less than $20.1T will put a damper on the new administration's infrastructure spending plans. This could easily undo the equity market's expectations of the White House's plans. A positive for PMs.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I didn't even notice that
Where's the money going to come from to service all the debt, especially if rates rise? Oh, wait. I think I know!
I knew it would happen.
More Derivatives! Or maybe more electronic money from thin air?
It's hard to say what that will mean for gold and silver. Some days, it doesn't mean much, since almost everything depends on how well the manipulators manage investor psychology.
I knew it would happen.
>
Where did all the QE end up?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
In 1946 US debt to GDP was 121% and interest rates were at 2%. Over the next 25 years rates went to 7%. Economy wasn't so bad during that time.
Today US debt to GDP is 105% and rates are 2.5%. If rates rise why do you think the economy would perform any differently?
It was only after 25 years of rates bottoming that the economy suffered. 1/3rd of the folks on this board will be dead in 25 years. Worrying about the price of gold is the last thing we should be doing.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The 1946 temporary high debt was a result of saving the world from Hitler. Today's permanent high debt is a result of reckless spending and bankers' wars that do not protect anyone but arms dealers.
The difference (and why the economy will perform differently this time around) between rising rates then and rising rates now lies in our drastic loss of production/manufacturing (growth to support paying debt) since then. The need for QE in recent and future years and not then is the difference.
There is responsible debt that can and will be serviced (circa. 1946) and there is irresponsible debt that just keeps digging a deeper hole (circa. 2017). You don't borrow money if you don't have the income to repay it. A printing press is the fool's way of coming up with the difference.
In addition, calculating GDP in 1946 was different than calculating it today. The gov has learned a trick or two since 1946 on "reporting" economic numbers.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I like the first 3 paragraphs...well thought out and mostly free of hyperbole and I can even in large part.
Please analyze how Japan with their large "permanent' debt burden had been so sustainable over the last 20 years.
Some could argue that GDP is actually understated, not overstated. Productivity is actually very high, but could be even high with more capital investment, which would further kick the debt bomb further down the road.
All in all, not much to worry about for at least another decade or two.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Same as elsewhere, the printing press. What we, and they await, is to find out how much printing it takes to collapse a currency. I believe Zimbabwe found out.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Why is that?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Much of the time PM movements are based on emotion and perceptions that have no basis in reality.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Fear and greed as well as perception drive all markets. PMs are no different in this regard.
I interpret OPA's "logic" to mean fundamentals. If I am correct, why are fundamentals no longer relevant?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Why gold is defying the odds and climbing in the face of rate hikes
Published after the Dec. rate hike and prior to the March hike. Appears fundamentals are coming back into play.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
What might boost gold prices is, some other asset classes, that actually produce growth and income, performing so well, that some dudes, maybe even some dudes around here, sell some stocks or some real estate or some small business, and diversify their investments and buy some other asset classes such as gold and silver and diamonds or platinum or rubies or emeralds or palladium or saphires or rhodium or compact, easily transportable, and relatively anonymous minerals.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Gold usually does rise in a rising interest rate environment. Those who think otherwise are ignorant. Many pro PM articles prey on the ignorant. Sad.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Continued demand from China, India, Russia, and a softer dollar should bode well for gold...throw in a correction with US markets and we'll break $2,000! I don't actively trade PM, just thoughts.
Usually? lol
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
One would think that someone "lol"ing about the word "usually" would show more than an older one year chart.
Even the 2015 chart does Not indicate, however, that "always" would be a better word, since it displays, "usually"
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
The chart is tracking "real interest rates", not interest rates. Even so, I'd have expected gold to have performed better in a low "real interest rate" environment.
I knew it would happen.
if interest rates are not real, what are they?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
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Knowledge is the enemy of fear