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Art market crash?
ricko
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This is surprising.... although coins and art are separate, they still represent disposable income...and for some, a liveliehood.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/...yours-for-about-20-000
Cheers, RickO
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/...yours-for-about-20-000
Cheers, RickO
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Their pieces were offered a couple of years ago in the respectable $10,000 range. That anyone would then pay $100,000 for one with the idea of flipping it for even more money is pretty ridiculous.
I think rather than the broader coin market, these should be seen as similar to some of the recent frenzied mint releases. Or better still, conditional modern "rarities".
--Severian the Lame
This is surprising.... although coins and art are separate, they still represent disposable income...and for some, a liveliehood.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/...yours-for-about-20-000
Cheers, RickO
Yes Ricko indeed.. when Fed free money ends after Trump elected .. markets similar to 1981-1982 ?? Just like After Reagan?
Hmm. I mean it's possible. But the artworks and artists mentioned in this piece specifically are young artists who are still very much alive, still actively working.
Their pieces were offered a couple of years ago in the respectable $10,000 range. That anyone would then pay $100,000 for one with the idea of flipping it for even more money is pretty ridiculous.
I think rather than the broader coin market, these should be seen as similar to some of the recent frenzied mint releases. Or better still, conditional modern "rarities".
This was my thought while reading as well. I think it could also be spread to things like toned coins which seemed to bring stronger money just a few years ago because of popularity. They still bring a premium, but the market has ebbed as fewer people see the reason to spend many multiples of non toned examples.
I am not a follower of the art markets, but some of those pieces in the article don't seem very interesting. Some rope as a curtain? Paint sprayed with a fire extinguisher? I can't see 10,000 let alone 100k.
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I will stand by my velvet poker dogs AND my gold SLQ.
Would you like to buy a Velvet Elvis and a Gold Kennedy Half to go with thoes?
Hmm. I mean it's possible. But the artworks and artists mentioned in this piece specifically are young artists who are still very much alive, still actively working.
Their pieces were offered a couple of years ago in the respectable $10,000 range. That anyone would then pay $100,000 for one with the idea of flipping it for even more money is pretty ridiculous.
I think rather than the broader coin market, these should be seen as similar to some of the recent frenzied mint releases. Or better still, conditional modern "rarities".
By contrast, a St Gaudens $20 in MS-65 for less than double melt seems like a real bargain, and $10 and $20 Liberty gold in AU-Unc for less than 10% over melt sounds ridiculously cheap.
A similar event will occur in the coin market when people finally realize that Overtons are really quite worthless and the prices of capped bust halves fall like rocks.
The emperors new clothes...
It is not just modern art. I have a long time friend who is a VP at a MAJOR international auction house. One trend that has been gathering steam is that antique furniture has hit the skids BIG time. Many pieces are worth 10%, if that, of what they were worth two decades ago. As you can see though, given the two decade timespan, this is a trend, not a hyped bubble that then blew up. Given that most of these pieces are centuries old, it will be interesting to see if in a century antique furniture has rebounded to new (inflation adjusted) highs, or whether it has continued to hit the skids.
U.S. Type Set
It's just a matter of people realizing that such modern art holds no true value in comparison to the master classic artworks.
A similar event will occur in the coin market when people finally realize that Overtons are really quite worthless and the prices of capped bust halves fall like rocks.
The emperors new clothes...
My thoughts exactly. The bigger fool. Those young artists must have been laughing all the way to the bank. That first painting looks like dirty mosquito netting, possibly from a camp site. These young artists must have felt like the Tulip growers back in Holland in the 1630's. Bigger fool theory. The proliferation of modern garbage has little to do with the great masterpieces and truly rare/scarce works of art. The speculators couldn't afford to push up the prices of great art. So they found something cheap with adequate supply to run up the flag pole.
I don't think it's the same way with toner Morgans for example. Those coins had to be plucked from original mint bags and took a hundred years to get that way. The "fresh" ones that are created with chemicals and fire extinguishers are weeded out by the TPG's. There's only a few hundred truly A+ monster toner Morgans out there. And maybe 10,000 max that are even A- or better quality.
When are paintings of Elvis on velvet finally going to make their move?
When all the velvet mines are shutdown.
The coin market has been consistently and ruthlessly deflating the value of plastic and points for the past 7+ years. Yet real "collector coins" in all price ranges have been doing just fine.
As for the emerging artists, most will fade away, but some will stand the test of time and appreciate greatly in value.
The same old story, over and over again. Not hard to predict.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
I collect dead artists and have done OK. They have a defined body of work and their "A" pieces do well. Their "B to F" pieces suffer.
The one trend, for all collectibles, that concerns me is the anti-materialist ethos of valuing experiences over things. While I would argue that being a custodian/curator of a numismatic item for the decades I'm alive is both a materialist and experiential thing, some are eschewing items altogether (tiny house movement, millenials who don't own houses/cars/etc) and opting for trips instead.
Note, I'm not in any way opposed to that mindset, and in many ways outside of coin collecting have begun to move away from accumulating things like my grandparents did. But I've also found that humans like "things" and that the in-thing changes from period to period. I go to tons of estate sales and scratch my head at all the Hummels and Lladros and depression glass. But it was popular a few decades ago.
As my mom has said repeatedly, if she would have known average household items from her childhood would be worth so much today, she would have kept them. But then if everyone did, they wouldn't be worth as much because they wouldn't be as rare. Heck, stuff from my 80s childhood has picked up in interest and price and I'm now kicking myself for opening up and playing with my toys instead of salting them away in their original packaging. (just kidding, but no, really)
The pure collector part of me says, whatever the price is, they're still cool to collect. If that sentiment ever wanes, then I'd be more worried than just about the prices falling.
Gonna get me a $50 Octagonal someday. Some. Day.
Art and coins have different markets with both a challenge to understand. The art market is difficult because of the dynamics. It is different and predicated on fads and what is in or out. And behind that is even a more general theme which is style. Seems certain styles are the back drop as to what is in or out and that leads to who is in or out.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
IMO most modern art is garbage. (Which is not to say that there isn't the occasional modern art piece that I find quite nice).
It is not just modern art. I have a long time friend who is a VP at a MAJOR international auction house. One trend that has been gathering steam is that antique furniture has hit the skids BIG time. Many pieces are worth 10%, if that, of what they were worth two decades ago. As you can see though, given the two decade timespan, this is a trend, not a hyped bubble that then blew up. Given that most of these pieces are centuries old, it will be interesting to see if in a century antique furniture has rebounded to new (inflation adjusted) highs, or whether it has continued to hit the skids.
This trend in the furniture market is very evident if you watch the Vintage Antiques Roadshow. It appears to me that early American furniture styles have really fallen out of favor over the past twenty years. Mid-Century Modern styles seem to have fared much better. Tastes change over time and this is probably a good example of that.
I think that plays into this more than you would think...
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
The artist, Richard Butler, is a well-known musician. Lead singer of the seminal 80s band Psychedelic Furs.
Richard Butler
RedDressAshWednesday
Oil
18" x 14"
2016
--Severian the Lame
All this may be true, but if anyone is selling work by Old Masters for 10% of previous high values, sign me up! I don't really care if the value goes up or down, but I'd love to own a Renoir sketch or a painting from the 17th century.
The one trend, for all collectibles, that concerns me is the anti-materialist ethos of valuing experiences over things. While I would argue that being a custodian/curator of a numismatic item for the decades I'm alive is both a materialist and experiential thing, some are eschewing items altogether (tiny house movement, millenials who don't own houses/cars/etc) and opting for trips instead.
Note, I'm not in any way opposed to that mindset, and in many ways outside of coin collecting have begun to move away from accumulating things like my grandparents did. But I've also found that humans like "things" and that the in-thing changes from period to period. I go to tons of estate sales and scratch my head at all the Hummels and Lladros and depression glass. But it was popular a few decades ago.
As my mom has said repeatedly, if she would have known average household items from her childhood would be worth so much today, she would have kept them. But then if everyone did, they wouldn't be worth as much because they wouldn't be as rare. Heck, stuff from my 80s childhood has picked up in interest and price and I'm now kicking myself for opening up and playing with my toys instead of salting them away in their original packaging. (just kidding, but no, really)
The pure collector part of me says, whatever the price is, they're still cool to collect. If that sentiment ever wanes, then I'd be more worried than just about the prices falling.
As a millenial, I personally believe this 'anti-materialistic' thing that you reference and the experience over things attitude come solely from the fact that a large fraction of millenials have negative money. They don't have the money to buy 'things' so they value 'experiences' instead. Many many took 10's of $1000s of dollars in debt to get a worthless college degree in something un-marketable in the job market and will be paying it back for decades. Look how big certain departments are at large universities.
To connect this back to coin collecting... Since coin collecting is such a small hobby to begin with, I don't think this really will effect the hobby or rare coin prices that half of millenials could never want nor afford a rare coin. It's just too small of a hobby.
The small fraction of the 'haves' in society with interest in rare coins will more than be able to support the rare coin market in my opinion. Do I think coin prices could ever decrease? Of course, but not forever. I also think that some of the more inflated areas of the market could experience something 'crash like'. But not the whole hobby.
Now I'm just a millenial myself, so time will tell if my novice opinion is the correct one.
Successful transactions with: wondercoin, Tetromibi, PerryHall, PlatinumDuck, JohnMaben/Pegasus Coin & Jewelry, CoinFlip, and coinlieutenant.
My Dad got his oak roll top desk in the 50's when the Mpls water department was remodeling.
For $5 they would drop it off at your house instead of the dump.
My generation thinks they are really cool.
Some future generation will think so also.
These are some examples of expensive art.
I'll stick with coins
Based on my friends, I think the answer to your question varies. I don't think it's lack of planning because people come right into college and start with a worthless degree on day 1. Some people start with a tough worthwhile degree and give up and switch to a worthless easy one. But I think that by far the largest reason is not doing due diligence in the field of study looking at job prospects.
Successful transactions with: wondercoin, Tetromibi, PerryHall, PlatinumDuck, JohnMaben/Pegasus Coin & Jewelry, CoinFlip, and coinlieutenant.
All this may be true, but if anyone is selling work by Old Masters for 10% of previous high values, sign me up! I don't really care if the value goes up or down, but I'd love to own a Renoir sketch or a painting from the 17th century.
The one trend, for all collectibles, that concerns me is the anti-materialist ethos of valuing experiences over things. While I would argue that being a custodian/curator of a numismatic item for the decades I'm alive is both a materialist and experiential thing, some are eschewing items altogether (tiny house movement, millenials who don't own houses/cars/etc) and opting for trips instead.
Note, I'm not in any way opposed to that mindset, and in many ways outside of coin collecting have begun to move away from accumulating things like my grandparents did. But I've also found that humans like "things" and that the in-thing changes from period to period. I go to tons of estate sales and scratch my head at all the Hummels and Lladros and depression glass. But it was popular a few decades ago.
As my mom has said repeatedly, if she would have known average household items from her childhood would be worth so much today, she would have kept them. But then if everyone did, they wouldn't be worth as much because they wouldn't be as rare. Heck, stuff from my 80s childhood has picked up in interest and price and I'm now kicking myself for opening up and playing with my toys instead of salting them away in their original packaging. (just kidding, but no, really)
The pure collector part of me says, whatever the price is, they're still cool to collect. If that sentiment ever wanes, then I'd be more worried than just about the prices falling.
As a millenial, I personally believe this 'anti-materialistic' thing that you reference and the experience over things attitude come solely from the fact that a large fraction of millenials have negative money. They don't have the money to buy 'things' so they value 'experiences' instead. Many many took 10's of $1000s of dollars in debt to get a worthless college degree in something un-marketable in the job market and will be paying it back for decades. Look how big certain departments are at large universities.
To connect this back to coin collecting... Since coin collecting is such a small hobby to begin with, I don't think this really will effect the hobby or rare coin prices that half of millenials could never want nor afford a rare coin. It's just too small of a hobby.
The small fraction of the 'haves' in society with interest in rare coins will more than be able to support the rare coin market in my opinion. Do I think coin prices could ever decrease? Of course, but not forever. I also think that some of the more inflated areas of the market could experience something 'crash like'. But not the whole hobby.
Now I'm just a millenial myself, so time will tell if my novice opinion is the correct one.
I'm 37 and so I fall right on the Gen X/millenial fault line. I've gone to school, had loans, had 2 economic collapses and been laid off once. I get the no money thing.
But even of those who have disposable income, some have chosen, for the time being--as things can change over the course of one's life and certainly vary by generation--to reject buying things in favor of doing things. I've noted it amongst some of my friends my age. Perhaps that will change again at some later date, not just for an impact on coins, but on other areas of collectibles.
All of the markets are different and the same and any market segmentation will reveal that. There is some limited overlap, but the market dynamics are different as are the reasons for the collecting/investing bug. Markets are also often in much different cycles at different times and some are more/less sensitive to price or external factors.
It never ceases to amaze me what is currently "hot" among the eBay sellers I know who scavenge estate sales for inventory. Or what was hot a decade or more ago, but is currently on the outs.
As for me, my sensitivities to the coin market (and any other) are constrained by personal finances and condition as much as any other collector. I am not married and have no children. I love to travel, as I did this past week, instead of pouring that money into the next coin. But there will be more coins.
Whether or not millenials or any other cohort will return or start anew on coins is an interesting topic to explore. My horizon for collecting, assuming I don't bite it early, is probably 3-5 decades. Others may have different horizons and thoughts about selling or who they pass the coins onto.
Personally, I wouldn't read too much into this art trend as it seems confined to speculators in the "emerging" artist market of modern art by people I've never heard of, and not Vermeers, Picassos, or Van Goghs.
Gonna get me a $50 Octagonal someday. Some. Day.
Thanks RockyMtnProspector for your thoughts as well.
Successful transactions with: wondercoin, Tetromibi, PerryHall, PlatinumDuck, JohnMaben/Pegasus Coin & Jewelry, CoinFlip, and coinlieutenant.
The emerging artist market is a lot like penny stocks. 99.9% are going to lose money, finding the 0.1% that return your money or more is the trick. It seems that unless an merging artist is tapped on the shoulder by some major art gallery as the next big thing, most aren't going anywhere, even if they have talent.
I wonder if the "eight New York critics" story still applies today. It used to be said that unless you were "blessed" by one or more of those critics your art was destined to be ignored.
My degree could have been a Debbie Downer. It is nuclear physics / nuclear engineering. Between 3 Mile Island and Chernobyl, basically killed the job market.
My area was more in the "single use" nuclear energy use items, use once, and not worry about that area for 20 to 2000 years.
Not a lot of call for that "expertise" in the English speaking world. Did get a $10,000 a month plus expenses offer to work in Japan after the earthquake.
I repurposed into Quantum well semiconductor physics. It just took a little time for the "size" of the transistors to reach toward the atomic level.
My parents lived in England, and in the 70's and 80's, huge numbers of old estates were broken up. "Old" furniture was borderline firewood. Furniture was large, heavy, bulky is a country heading toward small scale living. American antiques in England were dirt. Among the things my dad picked up was a bunch of flintlock muskets and shotguns, and I have an 1780's English Brown Bess left handed musket hanging above my office, and several American powder horns and brass powder flasks from the late 1700's early 1800's. Probably loot taken from some battlefield during the War of 1812. It went for a song over there.
One time at an antique furniture auction, someone had consigned a large number of hand carved African Masks. Zero interest from the crowd, and finally the auctioneer put them all in a lot, and I bought it all for $1 a mask. Made a killing selling them 1 at a time.
Hummels Beanie Babies Cabbage Patch Franklin Mint Cartoon Cels Brass Cash Registers Baseball Cards Wedgwood Limited Edition Plates Precious Moments Longaburger baskets
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
It's just a matter of people realizing that such modern art holds no true value in comparison to the master classic artworks.
A similar event will occur in the coin market when people finally realize that Overtons are really quite worthless and the prices of capped bust halves fall like rocks.
The emperors new clothes...
No not bust halves too.........
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.