Where is the market headed?

JOsborne

I'm a part time collector in early high end material. As one who doesn't follow the coin market on a daily basis, what is the consensus on where the coin market is headed? As a causal collector, it appears that it's a pretty soft market right now. My only real gauge of that is the lack of higher end coins currently in the auctions (Pogue collection excluded) and the overall lower prices.

US coinage is not alone. A lot of the other collectible markets are down (Western Art) as well.

Curious as to what the prevailing opinion is from collectors and dealers that live in this world on a daily basis.

keets

things seem quite slow now, prices seem down and collectors seem reluctant to sell. most what we see coming across the counter is either elderly collectors liquidating or heirs inquiring/selling what they've inherited. there aren't many collectors who are selling-to-buy and there aren't many other dealers bringing nice stuff into the store, guys we deal with regularly. that tells me that it isn't just our location but is an overall condition throughout our geographical area. the balance is that there are more willing buyers than sellers, but there isn't anything to sell them.



for my own part of the Numismatic world, I have been buying some of the nicer stuff when it comes in, being only limited by my budget.

dbtunr

Originally posted by: JOsborne

I'm a part time collector in early high end material. As one who doesn't follow the coin market on a daily basis, what is the consensus on where the coin market is headed? As a causal collector, it appears that it's a pretty soft market right now. My only real gauge of that is the lack of higher end coins currently in the auctions (Pogue collection excluded) and the overall lower prices.



US coinage is not alone. A lot of the other collectible markets are down (Western Art) as well.



Curious as to what the prevailing opinion is from collectors and dealers that live in this world on a daily basis.

Go read the sports card threads where the market is booming. Prices are up 4X-10X over the last few years. There is a permanent thread looking for more graders.



PCGS increased graders from 24 to 36 in the last year and volumes are up 40%. Prices appear flat.

ricko

Since I am not in the business, I really cannot say how things are from a two way perspective. I can say that I have had a few purchases lately at reasonable prices. So, I would say that sellers are trying to move product which could indicate a slowing generally. Cheers, RickO

CoinPhysicist

No one knows where the market is headed next. It has been a little soft for a while in the series that I look at though.

BryceM

I'm absolutely certain that it will go down and then up, and then down before up, down, and then back up again........ unless it goes up first.

Cougar1978

Sales are really slow. I recently bought one slabbed coin at auction for 13% of Market Value of $30 paying less than $4 (found a new hobby lol). I have bought other slabbed coins at 65% of MV and lower. If your selling big ticket coins you have to find both a wealthy buyer and one who wants that coin. A nice graded banknote cost me 44% of CV in a recent auction.

bestday

Originally posted by: keets
things seem quite slow now, prices seem down and collectors seem reluctant to sell. most what we see coming across the counter is either elderly collectors liquidating or heirs inquiring/selling what they've inherited. there aren't many collectors who are selling-to-buy and there aren't many other dealers bringing nice stuff into the store, guys we deal with regularly. that tells me that it isn't just our location but is an overall condition throughout our geographical area. the balance is that there are more willing buyers than sellers, but there isn't anything to sell them.

for my own part of the Numismatic world, I have been buying some of the nicer stuff when it comes in, being only limited by my budget.

If there was a shortage of sellers .. prices would be rising like in 2010 -2011.. not case today

thebeav

A friend of mine spends hours every day watching ebay new listings. He concentrates on early bust dollars and halves. He hasn't reported anything even close to a bargain, let alone a good deal. I can't remember the last he did report such a thing.

TwoSides2aCoin

Colonel Jessup called me. If I were to go by his report at Long Beach, I would say it (market) is laggard in some areas, and moving right along in others. The market is a funny place, for a hobby.

Catbert

As a collector, my view is that compelling coins with great eye appeal continue to bring strong prices.

CoinZip

Cougar1978

Bargains are jumped on like if on the Bay and then relisted by the buyer in their ebay store at retail. Really nice Classic 19th century coins, I have not been able to find any bargains. The people who own these are not going to give them away. If you want them then you will have to pay retail.

BillJones

If I am interested in collecting something, it is very expesive and brings strong prices in the auctions. If I am trying to sell it, the dealers won't pay a fair price. This might have something to do with why dealers don't seem to have that many good coins any more. They seem to have mostly "B- and C coins" that not very desirable.

Baley

I think "the market" for early, high end material is just fine, just like the climate in San Diego, California is just fine.



Other areas of numismatics, the market will vary, just like in other areas of the country, the weather will vary.



Some great! Others, less so..

CoinPhysicist

Using the 'climate in San Diego' and 'just fine' in the same thought?!?! More like 'great'.

291fifth

Originally posted by: BillJones
If I am interested in collecting something, it is very expesive and brings strong prices in the auctions. If I am trying to sell it, the dealers won't pay a fair price. This might have something to do with why dealers don't seem to have that many good coins any more. They seem to have mostly "B- and C coins" that not very desirable.

It sounds like margins are increasing. This is not a good sign as many/most coin collectors are very "profit" oriented even though the "profits" are often illusory. High dealer margins will drive away many "profit" oriented collectors.

bestday

Originally posted by: 291fifth

Originally posted by: BillJones
If I am interested in collecting something, it is very expesive and brings strong prices in the auctions. If I am trying to sell it, the dealers won't pay a fair price. This might have something to do with why dealers don't seem to have that many good coins any more. They seem to have mostly "B- and C coins" that not very desirable.

It sounds like margins are increasing. This is not a good sign as many/most coin collectors are very "profit" oriented even though the "profits" are often illusory. High dealer margins will drive away many "profit" oriented collectors.

dealers won't pay a fair price??? .. I took 2 coins to get a price at local B&Ms

for a 83CC GSA Morgan today ...... 1 dealer offered to buy 30 back of bid ... another 35 % back of bid,, a 2011 PCGS 70 Gold Eagle ?? $30 dollars under spot ...another $10 under spot

Justacommeman

Originally posted by: dbtunr

Originally posted by: JOsborne

I'm a part time collector in early high end material. As one who doesn't follow the coin market on a daily basis, what is the consensus on where the coin market is headed? As a causal collector, it appears that it's a pretty soft market right now. My only real gauge of that is the lack of higher end coins currently in the auctions (Pogue collection excluded)h and the overall lower prices.



US coinage is not alone. A lot of the other collectible markets are down (Western Art) as well.



Curious as to what the prevailing opinion is from collectors and dealers that live in this world on a daily basis.

Go read the sports card threads where the market is booming. Prices are up 4X-10X over the last few years. There is a permanent thread looking for more graders.



PCGS increased graders from 24 to 36 in the last year and volumes are up 40%. Prices appear flat.

The market is at an all time high for top pop or near top pop high end rookie cards of HOFer's. I experienced this a few months ago when selling. 400% to 1000% is true in this select niche.



Aaron, Banks, Clemente, Koufax, Lemieux, Howe, Jordan, Namath etc. some of the prices realized would blow your mind



mark

roadrunner

Originally posted by: Cougar1978

Sales are really slow. I recently bought one slabbed coin at auction for 13% of Market Value of $30 paying less than $4 (found a new hobby lol). I have bought other slabbed coins at 65% of MV and lower. If your selling big ticket coins you have to find both a wealthy buyer and one who wants that coin. A nice graded banknote cost me 44% of CV in a recent auction.

Are you using PCGS price guide as MV? As typically, most dealers can buy 90% of the coin market at 60-70% of Price Guide. I figure if I'm paying $4 on a $30 coin, then $30 was never a realistic FMV. I've used 65% of PCGS price guide as a general idea of what to offer for stuff that is typically available. This won't work as well for underrated dates, problem free bust material, and PCGS MS65/66 seated dollars.



As a collector, my view is that compelling coins with great eye appeal continue to bring strong prices.



I agree. The top 5-20% of the coin market, or any collectible market has something to offer. This is a moving line too. Each year, some of the previous year's top 20% get kicked out as their pops or #'s increase. There once was a time when an MS65 Barber Quarter was the "IBM of the rare coin market." That was a David Hall quote from the mid 1980's. These days, it might take a 66+ to gather the same enthusiasm and interest.



MJ, how is the other 99.9% of the sports card market doing over the past 8-10 years?

jesbroken

Just from my selling, watching and buying this summer, it appears that midsummer the market for raw coins faltered and graded material held its own and now has dropped some also. I would hate to offer a percentage that the raw coins are down, but it appears considerable to me. Years ago, I remember sellers said that September was one of the worst months for coins sales, perhaps due to summer ending and many have overspent on vacations and then school startup, which can drain large families extra income. JMO

Jim

ambro51

I'd take a David Hall mid 80's MS65 quarter......now it would probably be in a gold sticker rattler!!!

mannie gray

Sales have slowed for me, as always this time of year.

Good time to buy though.

I have noticed lately that "common" widgets, especially high grade proof moderns, (not the 69DC and 70DC stuff) have been strong and even moving up slightly. Kind of weird, when, as others have stated, buy/sell spreads on rarer stuff seem to be getting farther apart.

Maybe the smaller budget collectors are getting back in.

Justacommeman

Originally posted by: roadrunner

Originally posted by: Cougar1978

Sales are really slow. I recently bought one slabbed coin at auction for 13% of Market Value of $30 paying less than $4 (found a new hobby lol). I have bought other slabbed coins at 65% of MV and lower. If your selling big ticket coins you have to find both a wealthy buyer and one who wants that coin. A nice graded banknote cost me 44% of CV in a recent auction.

Are you using PCGS price guide as MV? As typically, most dealers can buy 90% of the coin market at 60-70% of Price Guide. I figure if I'm paying $4 on a $30 coin, then $30 was never a realistic FMV. I've used 65% of PCGS price guide as a general idea of what to offer for stuff that is typically available. This won't work as well for underrated dates, problem free bust material, and PCGS MS65/66 seated dollars.



As a collector, my view is that compelling coins with great eye appeal continue to bring strong prices.



I agree. The top 5-20% of the coin market, or any collectible market has something to offer. This is a moving line too. Each year, some of the previous year's top 20% get kicked out as their pops or #'s increase. There once was a time when an MS65 Barber Quarter was the "IBM of the rare coin market." That was a David Hall quote from the mid 1980's. These days, it might take a 66+ to gather the same enthusiasm and interest.



MJ, how is the other 99.9% of the sports card market doing over the past 8-10 years?

I honesty don't know. I owned 60 niche high grade iconic cards. Sold half 5 or so years ago with mediocre results. Sold the best Which were the rest within the past year at record prices. Timing and quality won out.



mark

ArizonaRareCoins

Realized coin prices at the major auction sites are sky-high. The 2 most recent Heritage and the recent Goldberg auctions had most coins selling at huge premiums over their previous sales. For the first time in over a decade, I was unable to purchase even 1 coin at these auctions. Based on what I'm seeing, coin prices are booming, just check the most recent sale prices on Heritage.

ARCO

From my experience, better date and key dates holding steady, but not rip roaring. Common dates, no matter how amazing the eye appeal are flat or falling in price.

Tyler

roadrunner

Originally posted by: ambro51

I'd take a David Hall mid 80's MS65 quarter......now it would probably be in a gold sticker rattler!!!

Show me the proof. General retail dealer and auction buying standards in the mid-1980's (1983-1985) weren't near as tight as when PCGS came out in 1986. I attended a lot of auctions in 1983-1985, especially some big Barber 25c collections such as S. Benton Emory. What went for average MS65 money at that time would have likely graded MS64 in 1986-1989. I know, I bought a few and that's what they graded out at....lol. A typical MS65 or superb gem of the mid-1980's would have a hairline or two or some focal point hits...and that didn't fly at the TPG in 1986. I can think of a lot of nice gem MS65/66 Barbers I handled in 1986-1990, and a number of them would grade no higher today, never mind CAC gold.



If you bought MS65 raw coins randomly from big dealers in the 1983-1986 period odds are decent they wouldn't even grade MS65 today...or not even be gradable due other issues (AT, ED, altered surfaces, etc.). That was not a nice period for the retail coin market as they FTC had to step in by 1986 to halt the abuses in retail grading. I don't think many dealers took the high road and held to 1982 standards. What was the harm in pushing a technical 64 or 64+ coin into a MS65 flip? Many of those guys put cleaned AU or MS62-63 coins into MS65 flips. I never made a purchase from DHRC or viewed their coins at an east coast show, so can't comment on their quality at the time.



I ordered plenty of gem type coins from the big boyz in the mid-1980's. And 90% of the time I was disappointed in what they sent. There was no advantage at that time in being the "tightest grading" coin dealer in the nation (except when buying). In fact, that might have been the quickest way to bankruptcy. I can't think of a single dealer that I dealt with in that period that didn't push their retail grades at least a bit. Whitlow and NPI were 2 of the tightest though. 80-90% of the dealers out there at that time should have been avoided.



Fwiw I was a DHRC Inside View subscriber in the 1983-1985 period. I was impressed with what I read in his newsletters and gave his company a chance to buy some coins from me in 1984. I sent them around to 3 different dealers looking for offers based on their Coin World buy ads as the "highest buyer." I knew one of them....the other 2 I was taking a shot they might work out. There were a couple of decent coins in that group such as a near gem unc 1883 seated 25c. I recall the offers I got ranged from $600 to $1200. I figured the retail on those coins at $1400-$1600. DHRC was at $800. I went with the high one of $1200 from Renrob (Bob Rose and Ron Iskowitz). I continued to deal with Rob/Ron for years after that. I never did a deal with DHRC because of that first offer. Sometimes you only get one chance.