Goes to show just how bad things would have to get, at least in the eyes of people who don't pay attention to how bad it already is.
It's never about silver, per se'. The bond market is the big enchilada and the stock market is the bond market's little sister. The silver market is tiny by comparison.
What does that mean? It means that if people actually do lose confidence in the bond & stock markets, it won't take much in percentage terms - of nervous money trying to find a new home - to drive the silver market quite a bit higher.
How high? It depends on what the government & big banks decide to do about any potential meltdown in bonds or stocks. It's anybody's guess what the big boys will dream up. Rest assured that they won't be trying to help "the public".
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
bond market is fixin' to drive metals up and likely stocks as well. Safe havens are getting fewer, resulting in more undisciplined speculation. Look for PMs to eventually become the final frontier.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
bond market is fixin' to drive metals up and likely stocks as well. Safe havens are getting fewer, resulting in more undisciplined speculation. Look for PMs to eventually become the final frontier.
Originally posted by: derryb bond market is fixin' to drive metals up and likely stocks as well. Safe havens are getting fewer, resulting in more undisciplined speculation. Look for PMs to eventually become the final frontier.
Sure do wish you would be right about this!
Be patient, the FED's fighting me as hard as they can. There's an eventual limit to their ability.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Originally posted by: derryb bond market is fixin' to drive metals up and likely stocks as well. Safe havens are getting fewer, resulting in more undisciplined speculation. Look for PMs to eventually become the final frontier.
Sure do wish you would be right about this!
Be patient, the FED's fighting me as hard as they can. There's an eventual limit to their ability.
the Fed is doing a lot with various "tools." It is interesting to note the mystification of the market every time any fed governor or yellen speak. None of them can give a clear signal until after the votes are cast. Is every future meeting potentially on the table? Well, as far as fed speak, the answer is maybe kinda because they aren't going to pre-announce anything.
while the fed is out there trying to keep rates as low as they need be, they are also trying to prepare for the day they do act just to minimize market shock.
we're a bit more than 1/8th off the recent lows, but there is no impending doom to make a revisit tomorrow in my realm of possibility. On the other hand, we are so close to the lows not because of the fed, but mostly because of the other market participants. It has been the economic numbers putting more people into notes and bonds. So, I think there is plenty of room left for safe haven buying even beyond the bit more than 1/8th room we have now. Also, do not forget the flight to the dollar when the US' debt was downgraded. Then there are the times yield curves actually invert. There is another flight to safety action there.
So, I think there is a lot more going on than the fed's market actions going on here, and a whole bunch of room for flight to safety into various treasuries, even beyond the 1/8+th we have right now (with no doom in sight)
I'm interested in hearing counter points and counter arguments.
Fed speak is just one of their tools, nothing more.
Any sensible market watcher should focus on Japan. It's funny that they followed the FED's advice for the first 15 years of their continuing 25 year crisis to only be joined by a FED who took/is taking the same incorrect steps. Common sense should have dictated that what was not working in Japan would not work here.
Never forget who the FED is really working for and who they are working against.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Any sensible market watcher should focus on Japan. It's funny that they followed the FED's advice for the first 15 years of their continuing 25 year crisis to only be joined by a FED who took/is taking the same incorrect steps. Common sense should have dictated that what was not working in Japan would not work here.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Sold a couple silver dollars on eBay last night for $16. Looking for $22.
And you paid $160/oz for a couple ounces of silver bullion?
It's the coin/medal/metal geek in me.
I pay too much for too little, sometimes.
Paying attention is a good quality, by the way.
Just playing around thanks. I had just read your post in the U.S. Coin forum and then clicked over here. Who knows that $160/oz medal might end up being a good buy in the long run.
Originally posted by: akuracy503
If I was making a wager... it'll hit $22 at some point in 2017-2018.
I would agree and raise you $1. 2017 should be an interesting year for the commodity markets.
Describe the tipping point without too much foul language.
No foul language here. I learned my lesson. Politics? Learned my lesson there too.
I see 2017 as similar (but not as devastating) as 2009. Call it a sweep and a drop if you will.
Originally posted by: cohodk
I'd like to know what you mean by tipping point and how politics will push commodities higher.
FWIW--I agree with your premise, but I think for vastly different reasons, so I'm curious as to yours.
Again I need to stay away from political posts. I believe the 2008 and 2016 elections will yield common results as will 2009 and 2017 (to a lesser degree of course).
So you're thinking a Clinton election would cause gold/silver to rally?
My thought is that a Trump election would cause gold/silver to rally.
I expect Clinton to win (no, derryb, I'm not voting for her), but commodities would rally for reasons completely unrelated to politics. Notice here that I said commodities, and not specifically gold or silver.
Trump would have a much more direct and considerable impact on gold/silver than Clinton.
Originally posted by: cohodk So you're thinking a Clinton election would cause gold/silver to rally?
My thought is that a Trump election would cause gold/silver to rally.
I expect Clinton to win (no, derryb, I'm not voting for her), but commodities would rally for reasons completely unrelated to politics. Notice here that I said commodities, and not specifically gold or silver.
Trump would have a much more direct and considerable impact on gold/silver than Clinton.
I was also warned about political posts but forgot to mention that.
I do see some reaction in the market if a lesser experienced person is in office. However, I don't think 1 person in the executive office influences the economy that much. Plus I think inexperienced presidents get crash courses and may find bad ideas either get shot down by others or not implemented by other governing bodies.
I hope this does not run afoul of the no politics mandate. I do think there will be market reactions depending upon elections. I am also trying to be as general plus not so specific as I can. One can watch CNBC and see what they predict. They are already talking about post election reactions and consequences.
Originally posted by: pitboss Do you think that a Trump win will make the price of silver and gold go up?
I interpret his comment that a "Trump election would cause gold/silver to rally" to mean exactly that!
PMs will not respond dramatically either way. A big economic policy change by the winner will do the trick. PMs do not necessarily respond to politics (BREXIT being an exception) unless its a politically motivated comment/action from a puppet central bank.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Originally posted by: pitboss Do you think that a Trump win will make the price of silver and gold go up?
I interpret his comment that a "Trump election would cause gold/silver to rally" to mean exactly that!
PMs will not respond dramatically either way. A big economic policy change by the winner will do the trick. PMs do not necessarily respond to politics (BREXIT being an exception) unless its a politically motivated comment/action from a puppet central bank.
Derryb, you've stated that PMs respond to confidence. I believe a Trump presidency will create a substantial loss of confidence, not just in the USA, but globally. Markets prefer certainity, even if that certainity is terrible--it can be prepared for. If a dam is going to break then people can either leave the area or build levees. However, if one day the sun shines and the next is an unexpected hurricane, chaos ensues. Loss of life and property will be much greater.
Kind of like playing a game where you know you will lose, but still live, or playing one where you have a slight chance of winning, but also of death. Most folk will opt for survival. And survival provides for time to let wounds heal, or even find a solution.
Originally posted by: pitboss Do you think that a Trump win will make the price of silver and gold go up?
I interpret his comment that a "Trump election would cause gold/silver to rally" to mean exactly that!
PMs will not respond dramatically either way. A big economic policy change by the winner will do the trick. PMs do not necessarily respond to politics (BREXIT being an exception) unless its a politically motivated comment/action from a puppet central bank.
Derryb, you've stated that PMs respond to confidence. I believe a Trump presidency will create a substantial loss of confidence, not just in the USA, but globally. Markets prefer certainity, even if that certainity is terrible--it can be prepared for. If a dam is going to break then people can either leave the area or build levees. However, if one day the sun shines and the next is an unexpected hurricane, chaos ensues. Loss of life and property will be much greater.
Kind of like playing a game where you know you will lose, but still live, or playing one where you have a slight chance of winning, but also of death. Most folk will opt for survival. And survival provides for time to let wounds heal, or even find a solution.
Valid argument. However, if Trump wins it will be because a majority of the voters don't have a loss of confidence with a Trump presidency. Same with Hillary. This is why I believe the outcome will have little affect on PMs. The result will be a vote of confidence (by a majority) either way.
That said, a Trump win will most likely have a negative affect on confidence held by those outside the US (strictly based on what the media has told them) and could have a temporary, negative impact on dollar strength.
Keep in mind that a projected state of confidence is based on what the media says it should be. BREXIT showed us that the media's predictions are not necessarily carved in stone.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Originally posted by: pitboss Do you think that a Trump win will make the price of silver and gold go up?
I interpret his comment that a "Trump election would cause gold/silver to rally" to mean exactly that!
PMs will not respond dramatically either way. A big economic policy change by the winner will do the trick. PMs do not necessarily respond to politics (BREXIT being an exception) unless its a politically motivated comment/action from a puppet central bank.
Derryb, you've stated that PMs respond to confidence. I believe a Trump presidency will create a substantial loss of confidence, not just in the USA, but globally. Markets prefer certainity, even if that certainity is terrible--it can be prepared for. If a dam is going to break then people can either leave the area or build levees. However, if one day the sun shines and the next is an unexpected hurricane, chaos ensues. Loss of life and property will be much greater.
Kind of like playing a game where you know you will lose, but still live, or playing one where you have a slight chance of winning, but also of death. Most folk will opt for survival. And survival provides for time to let wounds heal, or even find a solution.
Valid argument. However, if Trump wins it will be because a majority of the voters don't have a loss of confidence with a Trump presidency. Same with Hillary. This is why I believe the outcome will have little affect on PMs. The result will be a vote of confidence (by a majority) either way.
That said, a Trump win will most likely have a negative affect on confidence held by those outside the US (strictly based on what the media has told them) and could have a temporary, negative impact on dollar strength.
Keep in mind that a projected state of confidence is based on what the media says it should be. BREXIT showed us that the media's predictions are not necessarily carved in stone.
I think a Trump win shows a lack of confidence in Clinyon. Almost everyone I speak with who is voting for Trump states that they just don't want Clintom,as prsodent, rather than that they do want Trump. In either case, both candidates have little confidence from the people. There is a 3rd party candidate....maybe it's time for the people to take their country back.
To add...typos galore, due to bad eyesore and small keypad on phone
I think a Trump win shows a lack of confidence in Clinyon. Almost everyone I speak with who is voting for Trump states that they just don't want Clintom,as prsodent, rather than that they do want Trump. In either case, both candidates have little confidence from the people. There is a 3rd party candidate....maybe it's time for the people to take their country back.
To add...typos galore, due to bad eyesore and small keypad on phone
And bad autocorrect.
well is how I had it put to me is " voting for trump is like voting with your middle finger to you corrupt government" ha ha so true. I am not saying trump is it but voting for the devil would show you how dumb we have really become. You mess with the Clintons you disappear right after they take your wallet.
Almost everyone I speak with who is voting for Trump states that they just don't want Clintom,as prsodent, rather than that they do want Trump. In either case, both candidates have little confidence from the people.
Count me as an exception in thinking that Trump would be a positive step in the right direction. I think Trump knows how to run an organization and he's had good training in getting actual results. The media gives him a bad rap, which tells you much about the media.
I don't think that Congress will be supportive if he wins, but they've already divested way too much of their power and responsibilities (including power of the purse). Congress is pretty dysfunctional these days unless you can buy the influence.
The Founders knew all of this well in advance - and planned for it. Smart fellas.
Will silver hit $22.00? Sure it will, but don't ask when.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
My only desperate hope is that Clinton somehow, some way, will be able to reengage and deal with Congress, and get them back into the game, even though her term will be depressingly awash with investigations for this obfuscated dalliance or another.
In that case, I expect silver to plod along in a parallel manner....
Comments
It's never about silver, per se'. The bond market is the big enchilada and the stock market is the bond market's little sister. The silver market is tiny by comparison.
What does that mean? It means that if people actually do lose confidence in the bond & stock markets, it won't take much in percentage terms - of nervous money trying to find a new home - to drive the silver market quite a bit higher.
How high? It depends on what the government & big banks decide to do about any potential meltdown in bonds or stocks. It's anybody's guess what the big boys will dream up. Rest assured that they won't be trying to help "the public".
I knew it would happen.
+1
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
plenty of safe haven room there.
bond market is fixin' to drive metals up and likely stocks as well. Safe havens are getting fewer, resulting in more undisciplined speculation. Look for PMs to eventually become the final frontier.
Sure do wish you would be right about this!
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
bond market is fixin' to drive metals up and likely stocks as well. Safe havens are getting fewer, resulting in more undisciplined speculation. Look for PMs to eventually become the final frontier.
Sure do wish you would be right about this!
Be patient, the FED's fighting me as hard as they can. There's an eventual limit to their ability.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
bond market is fixin' to drive metals up and likely stocks as well. Safe havens are getting fewer, resulting in more undisciplined speculation. Look for PMs to eventually become the final frontier.
Sure do wish you would be right about this!
Be patient, the FED's fighting me as hard as they can. There's an eventual limit to their ability.
the Fed is doing a lot with various "tools." It is interesting to note the mystification of the market every time any fed governor or yellen speak. None of them can give a clear signal until after the votes are cast. Is every future meeting potentially on the table? Well, as far as fed speak, the answer is maybe kinda because they aren't going to pre-announce anything.
while the fed is out there trying to keep rates as low as they need be, they are also trying to prepare for the day they do act just to minimize market shock.
we're a bit more than 1/8th off the recent lows, but there is no impending doom to make a revisit tomorrow in my realm of possibility. On the other hand, we are so close to the lows not because of the fed, but mostly because of the other market participants. It has been the economic numbers putting more people into notes and bonds. So, I think there is plenty of room left for safe haven buying even beyond the bit more than 1/8th room we have now. Also, do not forget the flight to the dollar when the US' debt was downgraded. Then there are the times yield curves actually invert. There is another flight to safety action there.
So, I think there is a lot more going on than the fed's market actions going on here, and a whole bunch of room for flight to safety into various treasuries, even beyond the 1/8+th we have right now (with no doom in sight)
I'm interested in hearing counter points and counter arguments.
Any sensible market watcher should focus on Japan. It's funny that they followed the FED's advice for the first 15 years of their continuing 25 year crisis to only be joined by a FED who took/is taking the same incorrect steps. Common sense should have dictated that what was not working in Japan would not work here.
Never forget who the FED is really working for and who they are working against.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Any sensible market watcher should focus on Japan. It's funny that they followed the FED's advice for the first 15 years of their continuing 25 year crisis to only be joined by a FED who took/is taking the same incorrect steps. Common sense should have dictated that what was not working in Japan would not work here.
It's always different this time!
Silver hovering @20 in Dec....100 days after election it takes off.
It will take off, just like it has in past, when least expected. If it did otherwise, we'd all be millionaires.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Sold a couple silver dollars on eBay last night for $16. Looking for $22.
And you paid $160/oz for a couple ounces of silver bullion?
CU Ancient Members badge member.
Collection: https://flickr.com/photos/185200668@N06/albums
Sold a couple silver dollars on eBay last night for $16. Looking for $22.
And you paid $160/oz for a couple ounces of silver bullion?
It's the coin/medal/metal geek in me.
I pay too much for too little, sometimes.
Paying attention is a good quality, by the way.
Sold a couple silver dollars on eBay last night for $16. Looking for $22.
And you paid $160/oz for a couple ounces of silver bullion?
It's the coin/medal/metal geek in me.
I pay too much for too little, sometimes.
Paying attention is a good quality, by the way.
Just playing around thanks. I had just read your post in the U.S. Coin forum and then clicked over here. Who knows that $160/oz medal might end up being a good buy in the long run.
If I was making a wager... it'll hit $22 at some point in 2017-2018.
I would agree and raise you $1. 2017 should be an interesting year for the commodity markets.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Why should 2017 be an interesting year for commodities?
Politics. We're over the tipping point now and 2017 will assuredly bury us.
Why should 2017 be an interesting year for commodities?
Politics. We're over the tipping point now and 2017 will assuredly bury us.
I'd like to know what you mean by tipping point and how politics will push commodities higher.
FWIW--I agree with your premise, but I think for vastly different reasons, so I'm curious as to yours.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Describe the tipping point without too much foul language.
No foul language here. I learned my lesson.
I see 2017 as similar (but not as devastating) as 2009. Call it a sweep and a drop if you will.
I'd like to know what you mean by tipping point and how politics will push commodities higher.
FWIW--I agree with your premise, but I think for vastly different reasons, so I'm curious as to yours.
Again I need to stay away from political posts. I believe the 2008 and 2016 elections will yield common results as will 2009 and 2017 (to a lesser degree of course).
My thought is that a Trump election would cause gold/silver to rally.
I expect Clinton to win (no, derryb, I'm not voting for her), but commodities would rally for reasons completely unrelated to politics. Notice here that I said commodities, and not specifically gold or silver.
Trump would have a much more direct and considerable impact on gold/silver than Clinton.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
So you're thinking a Clinton election would cause gold/silver to rally?
My thought is that a Trump election would cause gold/silver to rally.
I expect Clinton to win (no, derryb, I'm not voting for her), but commodities would rally for reasons completely unrelated to politics. Notice here that I said commodities, and not specifically gold or silver.
Trump would have a much more direct and considerable impact on gold/silver than Clinton.
I do see some reaction in the market if a lesser experienced person is in office. However, I don't think 1 person in the executive office influences the economy that much. Plus I think inexperienced presidents get crash courses and may find bad ideas either get shot down by others or not implemented by other governing bodies.
I hope this does not run afoul of the no politics mandate. I do think there will be market reactions depending upon elections. I am also trying to be as general plus not so specific as I can. One can watch CNBC and see what they predict. They are already talking about post election reactions and consequences.
Describe the tipping point without too much foul language.
Are acronyms okay ? LOL
Do you think that a Trump win will make the price of silver and gold go up?
I interpret his comment that a "Trump election would cause gold/silver to rally" to mean exactly that!
Do you think that a Trump win will make the price of silver and gold go up?
I interpret his comment that a "Trump election would cause gold/silver to rally" to mean exactly that!
PMs will not respond dramatically either way. A big economic policy change by the winner will do the trick. PMs do not necessarily respond to politics (BREXIT being an exception) unless its a politically motivated comment/action from a puppet central bank.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Do you think that a Trump win will make the price of silver and gold go up?
I interpret his comment that a "Trump election would cause gold/silver to rally" to mean exactly that!
PMs will not respond dramatically either way. A big economic policy change by the winner will do the trick. PMs do not necessarily respond to politics (BREXIT being an exception) unless its a politically motivated comment/action from a puppet central bank.
Derryb, you've stated that PMs respond to confidence. I believe a Trump presidency will create a substantial loss of confidence, not just in the USA, but globally. Markets prefer certainity, even if that certainity is terrible--it can be prepared for. If a dam is going to break then people can either leave the area or build levees. However, if one day the sun shines and the next is an unexpected hurricane, chaos ensues. Loss of life and property will be much greater.
Kind of like playing a game where you know you will lose, but still live, or playing one where you have a slight chance of winning, but also of death. Most folk will opt for survival. And survival provides for time to let wounds heal, or even find a solution.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Do you think that a Trump win will make the price of silver and gold go up?
I interpret his comment that a "Trump election would cause gold/silver to rally" to mean exactly that!
PMs will not respond dramatically either way. A big economic policy change by the winner will do the trick. PMs do not necessarily respond to politics (BREXIT being an exception) unless its a politically motivated comment/action from a puppet central bank.
Derryb, you've stated that PMs respond to confidence. I believe a Trump presidency will create a substantial loss of confidence, not just in the USA, but globally. Markets prefer certainity, even if that certainity is terrible--it can be prepared for. If a dam is going to break then people can either leave the area or build levees. However, if one day the sun shines and the next is an unexpected hurricane, chaos ensues. Loss of life and property will be much greater.
Kind of like playing a game where you know you will lose, but still live, or playing one where you have a slight chance of winning, but also of death. Most folk will opt for survival. And survival provides for time to let wounds heal, or even find a solution.
Valid argument. However, if Trump wins it will be because a majority of the voters don't have a loss of confidence with a Trump presidency. Same with Hillary. This is why I believe the outcome will have little affect on PMs. The result will be a vote of confidence (by a majority) either way.
That said, a Trump win will most likely have a negative affect on confidence held by those outside the US (strictly based on what the media has told them) and could have a temporary, negative impact on dollar strength.
Keep in mind that a projected state of confidence is based on what the media says it should be. BREXIT showed us that the media's predictions are not necessarily carved in stone.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Do you think that a Trump win will make the price of silver and gold go up?
I interpret his comment that a "Trump election would cause gold/silver to rally" to mean exactly that!
PMs will not respond dramatically either way. A big economic policy change by the winner will do the trick. PMs do not necessarily respond to politics (BREXIT being an exception) unless its a politically motivated comment/action from a puppet central bank.
Derryb, you've stated that PMs respond to confidence. I believe a Trump presidency will create a substantial loss of confidence, not just in the USA, but globally. Markets prefer certainity, even if that certainity is terrible--it can be prepared for. If a dam is going to break then people can either leave the area or build levees. However, if one day the sun shines and the next is an unexpected hurricane, chaos ensues. Loss of life and property will be much greater.
Kind of like playing a game where you know you will lose, but still live, or playing one where you have a slight chance of winning, but also of death. Most folk will opt for survival. And survival provides for time to let wounds heal, or even find a solution.
Valid argument. However, if Trump wins it will be because a majority of the voters don't have a loss of confidence with a Trump presidency. Same with Hillary. This is why I believe the outcome will have little affect on PMs. The result will be a vote of confidence (by a majority) either way.
That said, a Trump win will most likely have a negative affect on confidence held by those outside the US (strictly based on what the media has told them) and could have a temporary, negative impact on dollar strength.
Keep in mind that a projected state of confidence is based on what the media says it should be. BREXIT showed us that the media's predictions are not necessarily carved in stone.
I think a Trump win shows a lack of confidence in Clinyon. Almost everyone I speak with who is voting for Trump states that they just don't want Clintom,as prsodent, rather than that they do want Trump. In either case, both candidates have little confidence from the people. There is a 3rd party candidate....maybe it's time for the people to take their country back.
To add...typos galore, due to bad eyesore and small keypad on phone
And bad autocorrect.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
To add...typos galore, due to bad eyesore and small keypad on phone
And bad autocorrect.
well is how I had it put to me is " voting for trump is like voting with your middle finger to you corrupt government" ha ha so true. I am not saying trump is it but voting for the devil would show you how dumb we have really become. You mess with the Clintons you disappear right after they take your wallet.
Count me as an exception in thinking that Trump would be a positive step in the right direction. I think Trump knows how to run an organization and he's had good training in getting actual results. The media gives him a bad rap, which tells you much about the media.
I don't think that Congress will be supportive if he wins, but they've already divested way too much of their power and responsibilities (including power of the purse). Congress is pretty dysfunctional these days unless you can buy the influence.
The Founders knew all of this well in advance - and planned for it. Smart fellas.
Will silver hit $22.00? Sure it will, but don't ask when.
I knew it would happen.
In that case, I expect silver to plod along in a parallel manner....
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...