Post-Brexit direction
jmski52
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This ought to be a fun guessing game. Where do you think things are going now that Britain has voted to exit the EU?
Here's my guess of the moment:
1 - Gold - volatility in the markets will light a fire under gold. The question is really whether or not the price can be suppressed effectively at this point. The Western governments & banks simply can't afford gold to become monetized because it's not their strong suit. Interesting times.
2- Silver - will follow gold up because of the monetary component, not because of industrial demand.
3 - Stock Market - the Fed will pump significant QE out of desperation to support retirement and pension account holdings. It's the only answer to prevent a collapse of multiple systems. They won't call it QE though. They've already done "Twist" so I'm not clear about how expiring Treasuries will affect the yield curve when this is being done. Kinda depends on which maturities are used.
4- Government Bonds - interest rates will be driven down the only way they know, by more money creation. Bonds will rise until the game gets called, and that's the last thing that Gov.com and the banks will ever allow. People made money in bonds during the Depression and it would take plenty of moxie to buy bonds now, (which is when money is made). The question will be: inflation, or deflation? There's a lot of bad debt out there now, more than in 2008. Apparently, lots more. Somebody's not going to be happy if they don't get paid. As usual, the dealers in bonds will do just fine until a scapegoat is needed, like Lehman.
5 - The Dollar - while money creation should cause the dollar to weaken, it won't drop much and will most likely become stronger (requiring even more money creation to drive it back down) - being the cleanest dirty shirt in the bag, as usual.
Tell me what I've got wrong. I just don't see what's coming, and something tells me that I'm missing it.
Here's my guess of the moment:
1 - Gold - volatility in the markets will light a fire under gold. The question is really whether or not the price can be suppressed effectively at this point. The Western governments & banks simply can't afford gold to become monetized because it's not their strong suit. Interesting times.
2- Silver - will follow gold up because of the monetary component, not because of industrial demand.
3 - Stock Market - the Fed will pump significant QE out of desperation to support retirement and pension account holdings. It's the only answer to prevent a collapse of multiple systems. They won't call it QE though. They've already done "Twist" so I'm not clear about how expiring Treasuries will affect the yield curve when this is being done. Kinda depends on which maturities are used.
4- Government Bonds - interest rates will be driven down the only way they know, by more money creation. Bonds will rise until the game gets called, and that's the last thing that Gov.com and the banks will ever allow. People made money in bonds during the Depression and it would take plenty of moxie to buy bonds now, (which is when money is made). The question will be: inflation, or deflation? There's a lot of bad debt out there now, more than in 2008. Apparently, lots more. Somebody's not going to be happy if they don't get paid. As usual, the dealers in bonds will do just fine until a scapegoat is needed, like Lehman.
5 - The Dollar - while money creation should cause the dollar to weaken, it won't drop much and will most likely become stronger (requiring even more money creation to drive it back down) - being the cleanest dirty shirt in the bag, as usual.
Tell me what I've got wrong. I just don't see what's coming, and something tells me that I'm missing it.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I knew it would happen.
I knew it would happen.
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Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Why would the renegotiation of a bunch of trading agreements cause so much global economic disruption?
It shouldn't.
The outcome could always be, "remain the same".
Gold was already trending down by day's end on Friday.
Metals are a safe haven during economic turmoil...got gold?
Will the drop in the pound sterling act as a major stimulus? Won't Europeans and Americans come to Britain and spend money because of it?
Because the currency war that's going on will become even more problematic, and currency wars don't seem to ever end well.
I knew it would happen.
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
Why would the renegotiation of a bunch of trading agreements cause so much global economic disruption?
Because the currency war that's going on will become even more problematic, and currency wars don't seem to ever end well.
Now might be a good time to buy coins from British sellers. Not bullion because there those prices will adjust but collectors coins priced in pounds are on sale if you have dollars or euros .
Why would the renegotiation of a bunch of trading agreements cause so much global economic disruption?
Because the currency war that's going on will become even more problematic, and currency wars don't seem to ever end well.
The war that's going on has nothing to do with currencies, but has been problematic for centuries. It's escalation will be the cause of disruption.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
More sideways and narrow trading ranges for gold and silver...The stock market will rebound, just like it has on previous occasions. The $ will remain strong. No bail out in sight from the Feds and it's unlikely that we'll see another rate hike this year. Paranoid conspiracy theorists will have a field day.
Really?
Silver up 23+% in last 6 months with absolutely nothing to provoke the move is a sideways and narrow trading range? Really?
Calling OPA...this is planet Earth.
Now with something actually happening to cause movement you're saying more of the same (the way you see it being sideways)? I'll take it!
Gold was already trending down by day's end on Friday.
And that wasn't profit taking going into a very unsure weekend. No it wasn't. No rational minded person wouldn't have shaved their position and lock in some profits ahead of an unsure open after being closed for 2 days. That's foolish thinking, what would cause anyone do that?
(where is the sarcasm emotion when I need it)
More sideways and narrow trading ranges for gold and silver...The stock market will rebound, just like it has on previous occasions. The $ will remain strong. No bail out in sight from the Feds and it's unlikely that we'll see another rate hike this year. Paranoid conspiracy theorists will have a field day.
Really?
Silver up 23+% in last 6 months with absolutely nothing to provoke the move is a sideways and narrow trading range? Really?
Calling OPA...this is planet Earth.
Now with something actually happening to cause movement you're saying more of the same (the way you see it being sideways)? I'll take it!
Ah 5 Years. 2011 seems a lot longer ago than that.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
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QE by year end.
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
I am curious to see what the Asian markets open at this afternoon.
So far, a slight gain .. I'm more curious to see what the US Market will do tomorrow, not only the PM but also the stock.
Summary
While Brexit was a significant event, there is nothing that will happen immediately, and we are talking years before an actual "Brexit".
This should not affect U.S. or non-EU multinationals, so U.S. market reactions may be a bit exaggerated.
While the British pound got hammered, it's the euro that really should be much lower, and this may be an opportunity for savvy currency traders.
The real consequences for the Brexit referendum lie in what it causes France and Italy to do with their own EU membership.
Investors should be really cautious in gold, as we think traders are extremely bullish and there is a big risk for a major correction.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Brexit exposes an ugly truth that should never have been allowed to fester: easy money resulting in runaway debt. Maybe now attention can be directed to a permanent cure for an over extended world economy. Brexit will be remembered as the great pin that popped the debt bubble. Growth and productivity are only real when they are a result of supply and demand set by the market and not by the money lenders.
Look for central banks to crank up the money printing in an effort to apply more bandages. The corner they have painted themselves into is getting smaller, the can they are kicking is reaching the cul-de-sac. Without a truthful evaluation and disciplined corrective action the result is going to be a very hard correction that will be dictated by the laws of reality.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Brexit keeps the Fed on hold, a positive for US stocks and Treasury bonds.
Brexit economic disruptions will likely reduce economic growth, a negative for US and foreign stocks.
Brexit economic disruptions will likely reduce economic growth, a negative for US and foreign stocks.
Brexit is triggering a much needed unwinding of excess debt and economic lies. The economic disruptions to a system that is now built on lies are the only way to real prosperity. While Brexit will be blamed for the correction ahead, it is only the messenger. Brexit is a much needed shot across the bow. Hopefully it is only the beginning of a world-wide awakening.
Great speech from 1976, the 200 year anniversary of our own revolution.
A good sign of a new attitude: restoring the Glass-Steagall Act has been added to the final draft of the Democratic Platform.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
It is not the strongest of species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change. - Charles Darwin
I knew it would happen.
Thank you Brexit.
It is not the strongest of species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change. - Charles Darwin
Spoken like a dead scientist. Nobody gets out alive. All creatures, great and small, die.
Thank you Brexit.
It is not the strongest of species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change. - Charles Darwin
Spoken like a dead scientist. Nobody gets out alive. All creatures, great and small, die.
But while we're here we do the best we can :-)
And since we are on the precious metals forum, I'll give a nod to .9999.
Brexit is a symptom, not a cause
"Confidence in clueless academics like Yellen is dwindling. Anger is building among the hoi polloi. They are sick of getting pissed on, while the politicians and bankers tell them its just rain. Brexit was another crack in the ice."
"Think of the EU, in its current ill-structured form, as a kind of Ponzi scheme, and Britain as the guy who just asked for his money back."
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
–John Adams, 1826
Hitler finds out about Brexit
https://goldsilver.com/news/here-s-how-high-silver-is-headed-by-jeff-clark-senior-precious-metals-analyst/
–John Adams, 1826
John Ing says "We continue to expect a $1,400 gold price near term and a $1,600 price over the intermediate-term with an ultimate target at $2,200 an ounce."
Gold: Plan B
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
–John Adams, 1826
Not to make this political, but, it occurred to me listening to "The Donald" last night that this election cycle may lead to a "Brexit" (of sorts) of our own. He was talking about reigning-in globalist attitudes and movements, restoring US sovereignty and putting America first in world trade deals to address current trade deficits (among other things). The crowd looked to be eating it up. If the electorate vote Trump in, would this not be akin to the USA voting in favor of its own "Brexit"? The next four or five months should be interesting.
No. If he accomplishes the tasks he will strengthen the dollar and decrease a loss of confidence in US economic direction. This would have the opposite affect on gold than Brexit did.
A successful Trump presidency would reduce the need for gold as a safe haven. While I own gold a reduction in the need of it for "insurance" far outweighs the benefits of seeing it skyrocket. Like my homeowners insurance I really hope I never need to use it. I would much rather see have the gold profits that one realizes with other "normally" appreciating assets.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
"No country within the EU is allowed to use their own banking system to fund any national projects. Everything has to be borrowed from the IMF, under their terms, and always to the advantage of the lenders and disadvantage to the borrowers."
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I think a successful Trump presidency will do many things that will ultimately be good for the USA. I also think that the die is cast for the dollar. The only thing that Trump will do monetarily is to preside over the inauguration of a new currency somehow linked to gold. What you're stacking now will serve as the foundation of that future currency. Keep stacking.
–John Adams, 1826
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
For Trump to accomplish what he says he would most likely would result in a massive increase in the national debt. An increase I believe Trump would be very comfortable with as he has used debt to HIS advantage many times. A default on US debt becomes more likely with Trump. The little guy who is so promised by Trump becomes the victim.
Unlike the last four or five guys before him?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
For Trump to accomplish what he says he would most likely would result in a massive increase in the national debt. An increase I believe Trump would be very comfortable with as he has used debt to HIS advantage many times. A default on US debt becomes more likely with Trump. The little guy who is so promised by Trump becomes the victim.
Unlike the last four or five guys before him?
Default on US debt was never an issue for the last 4 or 5 presidents, simply as evidenced that it didn't happen
Trump has shown a propensity to use debt and default on it.
Is that funny?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
For Trump to accomplish what he says he would most likely would result in a massive increase in the national debt. An increase I believe Trump would be very comfortable with as he has used debt to HIS advantage many times. A default on US debt becomes more likely with Trump. The little guy who is so promised by Trump becomes the victim.
Unlike the last four or five guys before him?
Default on US debt was never an issue for the last 4 or 5 presidents, simply as evidenced that it didn't happen
Trump has shown a propensity to use debt and default on it.
Is that funny?
It's funny that you believe a president makes the decision to default on debt. Those responsible for the debt decide it's future. Besides, the debt has been monetized for the last few decades by those responsible. Destruction of currency value is actually worse than wiping the debt slate clean once and for all.
Also, the "new" FED approach of buying the debt means it never really has to be repaid. It's all an accounting trick now.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
For Trump to accomplish what he says he would most likely would result in a massive increase in the national debt. An increase I believe Trump would be very comfortable with as he has used debt to HIS advantage many times. A default on US debt becomes more likely with Trump. The little guy who is so promised by Trump becomes the victim.
Unlike the last four or five guys before him?
Default on US debt was never an issue for the last 4 or 5 presidents, simply as evidenced that it didn't happen
Trump has shown a propensity to use debt and default on it.
Is that funny?
It's funny that you believe a president makes the decision to default on debt. Those responsible for the debt decide it's future. Besides, the debt has been monetized for the last few decades by those responsible. Destruction of currency value is actually worse than wiping the debt slate clean once and for all.
Also, the "new" FED approach of buying the debt means it never really has to be repaid. It's all an accounting trick now.
Yeah, that's what I believe. Lol.
Just like you believe Trump will fix everythibg, right?
Or maybe Hillary will save us? Lol
This thread has gotten funny.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
It's why we keep coming back
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Every thread here is funny.
It's why we keep coming back
True dat!!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear