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Post-Brexit direction

jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,814 ✭✭✭✭✭
This ought to be a fun guessing game. Where do you think things are going now that Britain has voted to exit the EU?

Here's my guess of the moment:

1 - Gold - volatility in the markets will light a fire under gold. The question is really whether or not the price can be suppressed effectively at this point. The Western governments & banks simply can't afford gold to become monetized because it's not their strong suit. Interesting times.

2- Silver - will follow gold up because of the monetary component, not because of industrial demand.

3 - Stock Market - the Fed will pump significant QE out of desperation to support retirement and pension account holdings. It's the only answer to prevent a collapse of multiple systems. They won't call it QE though. They've already done "Twist" so I'm not clear about how expiring Treasuries will affect the yield curve when this is being done. Kinda depends on which maturities are used.

4- Government Bonds - interest rates will be driven down the only way they know, by more money creation. Bonds will rise until the game gets called, and that's the last thing that Gov.com and the banks will ever allow. People made money in bonds during the Depression and it would take plenty of moxie to buy bonds now, (which is when money is made). The question will be: inflation, or deflation? There's a lot of bad debt out there now, more than in 2008. Apparently, lots more. Somebody's not going to be happy if they don't get paid. As usual, the dealers in bonds will do just fine until a scapegoat is needed, like Lehman.

5 - The Dollar - while money creation should cause the dollar to weaken, it won't drop much and will most likely become stronger (requiring even more money creation to drive it back down) - being the cleanest dirty shirt in the bag, as usual.

Tell me what I've got wrong. I just don't see what's coming, and something tells me that I'm missing it.

Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

I knew it would happen.
«1

Comments

  • BBNBBN Posts: 3,761 ✭✭✭
    I told my brother this a year ago, but I see Obama doing some govt' pension bailouts for cities/states that supported him.

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  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,087 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Why would the renegotiation of a bunch of trading agreements cause so much global economic disruption?
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • drwstr123drwstr123 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: cohodk
    Why would the renegotiation of a bunch of trading agreements cause so much global economic disruption?


    It shouldn't.
    The outcome could always be, "remain the same".

  • SaorAlbaSaorAlba Posts: 7,539 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I don't see much if any movement in metals - the only movements are the adjustments to the currencies of the EU, the Pound and the dollar - they are all over the map currently.
    In memory of my kitty Seryozha 14.2.1996 ~ 13.9.2016 and Shadow 3.4.2015 - 16.4.21
  • BAJJERFANBAJJERFAN Posts: 31,082 ✭✭✭✭✭
    IMO gold will be lucky to hit $1375 and will probably pull back to under $1200 before it gets there.



    Gold was already trending down by day's end on Friday.
    theknowitalltroll;
  • rickoricko Posts: 98,724 ✭✭✭✭✭
    My prediction is that gold will likely advance a bit... doubt it will break $1400.... silver will hit $18.00+. If there are further exits over the next year, then all bets are off. That will cause major currency volatility and metals will rise significantly. Cheers, RickO
  • mhammermanmhammerman Posts: 3,769 ✭✭✭
    Sounds bad for TPP and the New World Order. That deal was so cooked by all the insiders; fun watching the rats scatter when their feathered nest got pulled apart by the Englanders. Hopefully the Americans will have the same level of nuttation when the time comes.

    Metals are a safe haven during economic turmoil...got gold?
  • bronco2078bronco2078 Posts: 10,207 ✭✭✭✭✭


    Will the drop in the pound sterling act as a major stimulus? Won't Europeans and Americans come to Britain and spend money because of it?
  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,119 ✭✭✭✭✭
    More sideways and narrow trading ranges for gold and silver...The stock market will rebound, just like it has on previous occasions. The $ will remain strong. No bail out in sight from the Feds and it's unlikely that we'll see another rate hike this year. Paranoid conspiracy theorists will have a field day.
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,814 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Why would the renegotiation of a bunch of trading agreements cause so much global economic disruption?

    Because the currency war that's going on will become even more problematic, and currency wars don't seem to ever end well.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • DoubleEagle59DoubleEagle59 Posts: 8,307 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I know it's the summer doldrums for PM's, but I see both silver and gold advancing 10% in the next three months.
    "Gold is money, and nothing else" (JP Morgan, 1912)

    "“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)

    "I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
  • bronco2078bronco2078 Posts: 10,207 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: jmski52
    Why would the renegotiation of a bunch of trading agreements cause so much global economic disruption?

    Because the currency war that's going on will become even more problematic, and currency wars don't seem to ever end well.


    Now might be a good time to buy coins from British sellers. Not bullion because there those prices will adjust but collectors coins priced in pounds are on sale if you have dollars or euros .



  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,087 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: jmski52
    Why would the renegotiation of a bunch of trading agreements cause so much global economic disruption?

    Because the currency war that's going on will become even more problematic, and currency wars don't seem to ever end well.



    The war that's going on has nothing to do with currencies, but has been problematic for centuries. It's escalation will be the cause of disruption.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • piecesofmepiecesofme Posts: 6,669 ✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: OPA

    More sideways and narrow trading ranges for gold and silver...The stock market will rebound, just like it has on previous occasions. The $ will remain strong. No bail out in sight from the Feds and it's unlikely that we'll see another rate hike this year. Paranoid conspiracy theorists will have a field day.




    Really?

    Silver up 23+% in last 6 months with absolutely nothing to provoke the move is a sideways and narrow trading range? Really?

    Calling OPA...this is planet Earth.



    Now with something actually happening to cause movement you're saying more of the same (the way you see it being sideways)? I'll take it!

    image
    To forgive is to free a prisoner, and to discover that prisoner was you.
  • piecesofmepiecesofme Posts: 6,669 ✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: BAJJERFAN

    Gold was already trending down by day's end on Friday.




    And that wasn't profit taking going into a very unsure weekend. No it wasn't. No rational minded person wouldn't have shaved their position and lock in some profits ahead of an unsure open after being closed for 2 days. That's foolish thinking, what would cause anyone do that?

    (where is the sarcasm emotion when I need it) image
    To forgive is to free a prisoner, and to discover that prisoner was you.
  • VanHalenVanHalen Posts: 3,945 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: piecesofme

    Originally posted by: OPA

    More sideways and narrow trading ranges for gold and silver...The stock market will rebound, just like it has on previous occasions. The $ will remain strong. No bail out in sight from the Feds and it's unlikely that we'll see another rate hike this year. Paranoid conspiracy theorists will have a field day.




    Really?

    Silver up 23+% in last 6 months with absolutely nothing to provoke the move is a sideways and narrow trading range? Really?

    Calling OPA...this is planet Earth.



    Now with something actually happening to cause movement you're saying more of the same (the way you see it being sideways)? I'll take it!

    image






    Ah 5 Years. 2011 seems a lot longer ago than that.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,779 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Most seekers of safehaven turn to what they perceive to be a strong currency. US$ will strengthen. Metals will benefit from the safety seekers, but dollar strength until now has been a drag on metal strength. I suspect metals will continue their YTD steady climb but even that may be slowed or even reversed by the temporary safety of a competing dollar.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • OperationButterOperationButter Posts: 1,672 ✭✭✭
    QE by year end.
    Gold is for savings. Fiat is for transactions.



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  • DoubleEagle59DoubleEagle59 Posts: 8,307 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: OperationButter
    QE by year end.


    image
    "Gold is money, and nothing else" (JP Morgan, 1912)

    "“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)

    "I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
  • CaptHenwayCaptHenway Posts: 32,112 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I am curious to see what the Asian markets open at this afternoon.
    Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,119 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: CaptHenway
    I am curious to see what the Asian markets open at this afternoon.


    So far, a slight gain .. I'm more curious to see what the US Market will do tomorrow, not only the PM but also the stock.

    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,779 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Here's What Brexit Should Mean For Gold Investors

    Summary

    While Brexit was a significant event, there is nothing that will happen immediately, and we are talking years before an actual "Brexit".

    This should not affect U.S. or non-EU multinationals, so U.S. market reactions may be a bit exaggerated.

    While the British pound got hammered, it's the euro that really should be much lower, and this may be an opportunity for savvy currency traders.

    The real consequences for the Brexit referendum lie in what it causes France and Italy to do with their own EU membership.

    Investors should be really cautious in gold, as we think traders are extremely bullish and there is a big risk for a major correction.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 44,283 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Power to the people... especially the people with a government job. image Gold and silver will follow the money trail, not vice versa.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,779 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Brexit will be ripping off the 2008 bandaids and exposing economic reality. It will get blamed but it will not be the cause. Eight years of temporary fixes, and not permanent cures, will not get the attention they deserves. The problem with political leadership is it does not have to see past the the expiration of its current term. This is the difference between a politician and a statesman.

    Brexit exposes an ugly truth that should never have been allowed to fester: easy money resulting in runaway debt. Maybe now attention can be directed to a permanent cure for an over extended world economy. Brexit will be remembered as the great pin that popped the debt bubble. Growth and productivity are only real when they are a result of supply and demand set by the market and not by the money lenders.

    Look for central banks to crank up the money printing in an effort to apply more bandages. The corner they have painted themselves into is getting smaller, the can they are kicking is reaching the cul-de-sac. Without a truthful evaluation and disciplined corrective action the result is going to be a very hard correction that will be dictated by the laws of reality.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • s4nys4ny Posts: 1,569 ✭✭✭
    Brexit creates uncertainty, so positive for gold.

    Brexit keeps the Fed on hold, a positive for US stocks and Treasury bonds.

    Brexit economic disruptions will likely reduce economic growth, a negative for US and foreign stocks.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,779 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: s4ny
    Brexit economic disruptions will likely reduce economic growth, a negative for US and foreign stocks.


    Brexit is triggering a much needed unwinding of excess debt and economic lies. The economic disruptions to a system that is now built on lies are the only way to real prosperity. While Brexit will be blamed for the correction ahead, it is only the messenger. Brexit is a much needed shot across the bow. Hopefully it is only the beginning of a world-wide awakening.

    Great speech from 1976, the 200 year anniversary of our own revolution.

    A good sign of a new attitude: restoring the Glass-Steagall Act has been added to the final draft of the Democratic Platform.



    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • piecesofmepiecesofme Posts: 6,669 ✭✭✭
    Thank you Brexit.



    It is not the strongest of species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change. - Charles Darwin
    To forgive is to free a prisoner, and to discover that prisoner was you.
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,814 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Nope, Baley - nothing to see here.

    image
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 44,283 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: piecesofme
    Thank you Brexit.

    It is not the strongest of species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change. - Charles Darwin



    Spoken like a dead scientist. Nobody gets out alive. All creatures, great and small, die.
  • piecesofmepiecesofme Posts: 6,669 ✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: TwoSides2aCoin

    Originally posted by: piecesofme

    Thank you Brexit.



    It is not the strongest of species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change. - Charles Darwin






    Spoken like a dead scientist. Nobody gets out alive. All creatures, great and small, die.





    But while we're here we do the best we can :-)
    To forgive is to free a prisoner, and to discover that prisoner was you.
  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 44,283 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Agreed POM. And so we do (our best) Pound for pound, the dollar isn't taking the beating some expected. And metal is finding a new floor. And I like sterling. Not as much as .900...
    And since we are on the precious metals forum, I'll give a nod to .9999.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,779 ✭✭✭✭✭
    PM prices reflect confidence in everything else.

    Brexit is a symptom, not a cause

    "Confidence in clueless academics like Yellen is dwindling. Anger is building among the hoi polloi. They are sick of getting pissed on, while the politicians and bankers tell them its just rain. Brexit was another crack in the ice."

    "Think of the EU, in its current ill-structured form, as a kind of Ponzi scheme, and Britain as the guy who just asked for his money back."

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • MesquiteMesquite Posts: 4,075 ✭✭✭
    A new chart from our friends at Visual Capitalist.

    image
    There are two ways to conquer and enslave a nation. One is by the sword. The other is by debt.
    –John Adams, 1826
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,006 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Sub-1300 in 3 months
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  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 44,283 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The Germans want an answer. I predict the women will have a nice get together.
  • MesquiteMesquite Posts: 4,075 ✭✭✭
    Interesting article. For what it's worth, I'm inclined to agree with the trend of the analysis. At a G/S ratio of 15, gold would come in somewhere around $2,500 by June 2019. At a G/S ratio of 45 (arguably the mean) gold would come in around $7,500 by June 2019. At the current G/S ratio of 66, gold would come in around $10,750. Of course, at $163/oz silver, bread might cost $40/loaf by June 2019 assuming the loaf size and quality remain the same. Not sure that any of this speculation has anything to do with Brexit per se. His analysis included only pre-Brexit historical data.

    https://goldsilver.com/news/here-s-how-high-silver-is-headed-by-jeff-clark-senior-precious-metals-analyst/
    There are two ways to conquer and enslave a nation. One is by the sword. The other is by debt.
    –John Adams, 1826
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,779 ✭✭✭✭✭
    " Any Guesses for the Short (3 mo.) to Intermediate (1 yr.) Term?"


    John Ing says "We continue to expect a $1,400 gold price near term and a $1,600 price over the intermediate-term with an ultimate target at $2,200 an ounce."

    Gold: Plan B

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • MesquiteMesquite Posts: 4,075 ✭✭✭
    Not to make this political, but, it occurred to me listening to "The Donald" last night that this election cycle may lead to a "Brexit" (of sorts) of our own. He was talking about reigning-in globalist attitudes and movements, restoring US sovereignty and putting America first in world trade deals to address current trade deficits (among other things). The crowd looked to be eating it up. If the electorate vote Trump in, would this not be akin to the USA voting in favor of its own "Brexit"? The next four or five months should be interesting.
    There are two ways to conquer and enslave a nation. One is by the sword. The other is by debt.
    –John Adams, 1826
  • gsa1fangsa1fan Posts: 5,566 ✭✭✭
    Yes, Chris Christie pointed that out on night 2 or 3. To me Trump is Ross Peroit 20 years later. How many Trillions more in debt though?
    Avid collector of GSA's.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,779 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: Mesquite
    Not to make this political, but, it occurred to me listening to "The Donald" last night that this election cycle may lead to a "Brexit" (of sorts) of our own. He was talking about reigning-in globalist attitudes and movements, restoring US sovereignty and putting America first in world trade deals to address current trade deficits (among other things). The crowd looked to be eating it up. If the electorate vote Trump in, would this not be akin to the USA voting in favor of its own "Brexit"? The next four or five months should be interesting.

    No. If he accomplishes the tasks he will strengthen the dollar and decrease a loss of confidence in US economic direction. This would have the opposite affect on gold than Brexit did.

    A successful Trump presidency would reduce the need for gold as a safe haven. While I own gold a reduction in the need of it for "insurance" far outweighs the benefits of seeing it skyrocket. Like my homeowners insurance I really hope I never need to use it. I would much rather see have the gold profits that one realizes with other "normally" appreciating assets.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,779 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Gold And Silver - Debt Addiction Will Carry PMs Higher

    "No country within the EU is allowed to use their own banking system to fund any national projects. Everything has to be borrowed from the IMF, under their terms, and always to the advantage of the lenders and disadvantage to the borrowers."

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • MesquiteMesquite Posts: 4,075 ✭✭✭
    A successful Trump presidency would reduce the need for gold as a safe haven.


    I think a successful Trump presidency will do many things that will ultimately be good for the USA. I also think that the die is cast for the dollar. The only thing that Trump will do monetarily is to preside over the inauguration of a new currency somehow linked to gold. What you're stacking now will serve as the foundation of that future currency. Keep stacking.
    There are two ways to conquer and enslave a nation. One is by the sword. The other is by debt.
    –John Adams, 1826
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,087 ✭✭✭✭✭
    For Trump to accomplish what he says he would most likely would result in a massive increase in the national debt. An increase I believe Trump would be very comfortable with as he has used debt to HIS advantage many times. A default on US debt becomes more likely with Trump. The little guy who is so promised by Trump becomes the victim.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,779 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: cohodk
    For Trump to accomplish what he says he would most likely would result in a massive increase in the national debt. An increase I believe Trump would be very comfortable with as he has used debt to HIS advantage many times. A default on US debt becomes more likely with Trump. The little guy who is so promised by Trump becomes the victim.


    Unlike the last four or five guys before him? image

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,087 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: derryb
    Originally posted by: cohodk
    For Trump to accomplish what he says he would most likely would result in a massive increase in the national debt. An increase I believe Trump would be very comfortable with as he has used debt to HIS advantage many times. A default on US debt becomes more likely with Trump. The little guy who is so promised by Trump becomes the victim.


    Unlike the last four or five guys before him? image




    Default on US debt was never an issue for the last 4 or 5 presidents, simply as evidenced that it didn't happen

    Trump has shown a propensity to use debt and default on it.

    Is that funny?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,779 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: cohodk
    Originally posted by: derryb
    Originally posted by: cohodk
    For Trump to accomplish what he says he would most likely would result in a massive increase in the national debt. An increase I believe Trump would be very comfortable with as he has used debt to HIS advantage many times. A default on US debt becomes more likely with Trump. The little guy who is so promised by Trump becomes the victim.


    Unlike the last four or five guys before him? image




    Default on US debt was never an issue for the last 4 or 5 presidents, simply as evidenced that it didn't happen

    Trump has shown a propensity to use debt and default on it.

    Is that funny?


    It's funny that you believe a president makes the decision to default on debt. Those responsible for the debt decide it's future. Besides, the debt has been monetized for the last few decades by those responsible. Destruction of currency value is actually worse than wiping the debt slate clean once and for all.

    Also, the "new" FED approach of buying the debt means it never really has to be repaid. It's all an accounting trick now.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,087 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: derryb
    Originally posted by: cohodk
    Originally posted by: derryb
    Originally posted by: cohodk
    For Trump to accomplish what he says he would most likely would result in a massive increase in the national debt. An increase I believe Trump would be very comfortable with as he has used debt to HIS advantage many times. A default on US debt becomes more likely with Trump. The little guy who is so promised by Trump becomes the victim.


    Unlike the last four or five guys before him? image




    Default on US debt was never an issue for the last 4 or 5 presidents, simply as evidenced that it didn't happen

    Trump has shown a propensity to use debt and default on it.

    Is that funny?


    It's funny that you believe a president makes the decision to default on debt. Those responsible for the debt decide it's future. Besides, the debt has been monetized for the last few decades by those responsible. Destruction of currency value is actually worse than wiping the debt slate clean once and for all.

    Also, the "new" FED approach of buying the debt means it never really has to be repaid. It's all an accounting trick now.


    Yeah, that's what I believe. Lol.

    Just like you believe Trump will fix everythibg, right?

    Or maybe Hillary will save us? Lol

    This thread has gotten funny.



    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Every thread here is funny.



    It's why we keep coming back image

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,087 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: Baley
    Every thread here is funny.

    It's why we keep coming back image


    True dat!!

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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