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interesting hot topics

GazesGazes Posts: 2,315 ✭✭✭✭✭
http://www.legendnumismatics.com/hot-topics/



very interesting hot topics. Do you agree that a PCGS 65 CAC brings more than a PCGS 66 NON CAC?

Comments

  • ZoinsZoins Posts: 34,401 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: Laura Sperber
    Collectors are not stupid, they know if a coin gets upgraded they will lose the CAC bean among other issues.
    [...]
    having a PCGS CAC piece in MS65 is BETTER then having a NON CAC coin in MS66


    I think one issue is that there have been a growing number of posts here about upgrading a coin with a green bean where the upgraded coin also gets a green bean at the new grade.

    So in these cases, you lose the bean for your MS65, but you resubmit in the hopes of getting a bean for your MS66.

    Not saying that this is the case all the time, but there has been what seems like an increasing number of posts here with examples of this.

    If a MS65 green bean is not supposed to be beaned at MS66, is a database like Secure Plus needed to track coins on resubmission?
  • MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 24,412 ✭✭✭✭✭
    As a public service, a short synopsis of Laura's article:

    Before you play the upgrade game, consider that maxed out sets turn off buyers.
    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
  • tradedollarnuttradedollarnut Posts: 20,198 ✭✭✭✭✭
    This is a tough one that I can see both sides of the issue on. When I sold my seated dollar set, it was about 2/3 top pop, all CAC and brought absolute top dollar. After a decade of gradeflation, it was under 50% top pop. Is the set any less fine? Heck no, it's still amazing and each coin is the best available - it just doesn't look that way on paper any more. The price to repurchase it was definitely impaired by the inflated current pops.

    When I gave it to Pcgs in preparation for going on display, I agonized over whether to have the entire set regraded. On one hand, there are definite plus upgrades and a few whole point upgrades. On the other hand, Laura is absolutely correct - I've seen way too many maxed out sets that lose all appeal even though the coins are what they are.

    Does any self respecting seated dollar collector really want a gem in their set that looks like this? If you start maxing out your coins, your set will be filled with these:

    image

    The dilemma occurs when you compare that dreck MS65 to the coin in my set. My coin is well over a point higher in quality - and the pride of ownership almost compels one to do the regrade in order to make it so

    image
  • Walkerguy21DWalkerguy21D Posts: 11,679 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Good points in the article.
    I wonder if the registry game is driving some of the effort to upgrade....increase your point total/standing in the registry w/o having to
    buy replacement upgrade coins - just keep sending your coins in until you get higher numbers....along with the PERCEPTION that higher grade
    on the slab = higher value, which apparently isn't always the case?



    Successful BST transactions with 171 members. Ebeneezer, Tonedeaf, Shane6596, Piano1, Ikenefic, RG, PCGSPhoto, stman, Don'tTelltheWife, Boosibri, Ron1968, snowequities, VTchaser, jrt103, SurfinxHI, 78saen, bp777, FHC, RYK, JTHawaii, Opportunity, Kliao, bigtime36, skanderbeg, split37, thebigeng, acloco, Toninginthblood, OKCC, braddick, Coinflip, robcool, fastfreddie, tightbudget, DBSTrader2, nickelsciolist, relaxn, Eagle eye, soldi, silverman68, ElKevvo, sawyerjosh, Schmitz7, talkingwalnut2, konsole, sharkman987, sniocsu, comma, jesbroken, David1234, biosolar, Sullykerry, Moldnut, erwindoc, MichaelDixon, GotTheBug
  • MoldnutMoldnut Posts: 3,113 ✭✭✭✭
    Is it the "collectors" that are the real problem or the dealers? She sure mentions the collector a lot.
    Derek

    EAC 6024
  • cardinalcardinal Posts: 2,005 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The comment about the Pogue collection is noted, but the recent re-grades of the coins were NOT done with the Family's demand to max out the grades.

    Their m.o. was generally to purchase the best of the best coins, and crack them out to enjoy them raw -- which they did for decades. I remember JD relaying the story of cracking out the Childs 1804 Dollar, because that's what the Pogue Family wanted!

    When time came to sell the collection (or part of it), the choice for most of the pieces would have been to sell them raw, or have them slabbed. The decision was to slab them, and the coins got the grades they got.
  • cardinalcardinal Posts: 2,005 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: tradedollarnut
    This is a tough one that I can see both sides of the issue on. When I sold my seated dollar set, it was about 2/3 top pop, all CAC and brought absolute top dollar. After a decade of gradeflation, it was under 50% top pop. Is the set any less fine? Heck no, it's still amazing and each coin is the best available - it just doesn't look that way on paper any more.

    When I gave it to Pcgs in preparation for going on display, I agonized over whether to have the entire set regraded. On one hand, there are definite plus upgrades and a few whole point upgrades. On the other hand, Laura is absolutely correct - I've seen way too many maxed out sets that lose all appeal even though the coins are what they are.

    Does any self respecting seated dollar collector really want a gem in their set that looks like this? If you start maxing out your coins, your set will be filled with these:

    image

    The dilemma occurs when you compare that dreck MS65 to the coin in my set. My coin is well over a point higher in quality - and the pride of ownership almost compels one to do the regrade in order to make it so

    image


    Just a note to your example for the forum, as wild and awesome as YOUR 1853 dollar is in comparison to the "dreck" piece, your's looks WAY better in person than even that TrueView photo shows!! image
  • jcpingjcping Posts: 2,649 ✭✭✭
    Everyone, dealers and collectors, wants some meat on bones when buying coins. If a coin (or a collection) grade(s) is maxed out and absolutely no meat on bone, I bet crack-out guys won't bid it, dealers will play safe and collectors lose their hope of upgrading until next gradeflation era. When you don't give any room to the next guy, any hope or imagination possibilities, why anyone would bid aggressively unless the coin is very special, e.g., 1804 PR-68 image
    an SLQ and Ike dollars lover
  • coinkatcoinkat Posts: 23,816 ✭✭✭✭✭
    What really hurts the Hobby is when we have individuals making statements about a PCGS 65 CAC v a PCGS 66 non CAC without any consideration for the coin. IT IS SIMPLY NOT ABOUT PLASTIC AND STICKERS. Why is it that collectors have become lemmings and just seem to overlook what is important?

    There are those collectors that bought attractive coins. And those coins have not always produced the best results if measured by plastic and stickers. Seriously... why does this ongoing hypothetical debate over plastic and stickers even have legs to survive without a meaningful inclusion of the coin housed in the plastic?

    This statement and question is at this point fails the straight face test.

    Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.

  • DIMEMANDIMEMAN Posts: 22,403 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: Gazes
    http://www.legendnumismatics.com/hot-topics/

    very interesting hot topics. Do you agree that a PCGS 65 CAC brings more than a PCGS 66 NON CAC?


    Not with me. I'll take the 66.

  • DIMEMANDIMEMAN Posts: 22,403 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: MrEureka
    As a public service, a short synopsis of Laura's article:

    Before you play the upgrade game, consider that maxed out sets turn off buyers.


    Complaining about coins being maxed out makes me see RED!

    Maxed out means it is in the correct holder.....correctly graded.

    Wouldn't it be nice if this could happen first time every time!!!
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,313 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I disagree with the premise that a typical/solid for the grade PCGS MS65 CAC is worth the same as the non-CAC PCGS MS66 low end coin. In general, and in most situations, the MS66 is worth more, even if maxed out and no longer upgradeable. There may be some pockets of exceptions, but not many. That's been the reality of the market for the past 30 years. So what if a Pogue finest known was graded MS66 and didn't sticker? It's unlikely it would have fetched more money as a PCGS MS65 CAC. The new owner always has the option to downgrade the coin by cracking it out and hoping for a one grade drop. Only 55-65% of the Newman and Gardner coins stickered, with plenty of finest knowns and top pops represented in their holdings. I can only shudder to think if Gene Gardner's primary emphasis in building his collection was to only buy high end examples of the dates he searched for....or not buy anything....or pass on a finest known because it was low end for the grade.



    While one might wish gradeflation to stop, it's been the lifeblood of the hobby for the past 25 years. No upgrades? Then no vibrant market. All those dealers use to making 30-100% per coin on some type of upgrade/improvement arbitrage are not going to settle for making 5-10% w/o upgrades.



    ***The real question that should be asked is if a PCGS MS65/65+ CAC is worth as much or more than a CAC NGC MS66. And in way too many instances the answer is yes. That's a big problem imo. Boo-bird dealers can't address this question if the deal in pretty much only PCGS CAC coins.



    The bottom line is that if you as the current longer term owner don't pursue the upgrade, the next dealer/flipper probably will. And they will profit from it, not you. I continue to see coins I sold from 2004-2011 end up in higher holders and crossover, often both at the same time. None of those guys care about preserving the "integrity" of collections by having everything solid for the grade. And if I'm in Legend's shoes, I want those solid-for-the-grade coins sold 5-10 years ago coming back through me having been totally left untouched in those holders...for the next potential arbitrage....even if it's just in the markup for being higher end for the grade and f-r-e-s-h.



    I'm with Dimeman on this one. Give me the non-CAC PCGS MS66 for the same price as the CAC 65/65+ in almost every instance, from generic Morgans and Saints to gem bust and seated halves. And as with any buyer, we get to look at both of them before making a $$ decision.
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • joebb21joebb21 Posts: 4,769 ✭✭✭✭✭
    dealers will continue to crack coins looking for even + upgrades because there is more money to be made.

    Collectors see the same money opportunity and want a part of it.

    may the fonz be with you...always...
  • pennyanniepennyannie Posts: 3,929 ✭✭✭
    I have NEVER had a dealer tell me a coin was over graded, usually just the opposite they say that ms65 should be a ms66+ and priced accordinly. I have never seen a dealer "leave meat on the bone" for the buyer.

    But I do think that undergraded coins bring more at auction when bidders think they can upgrade.
    Mark
    NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!!
    working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!

    RIP "BEAR"
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,313 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I used to blame the grading services for everything. Now, I see a clear pattern of collectors who insist on pushing the line even further. We have a really BAD culture. You don’t have to regrade if you have really nice high end and eye appealing coins. In today’s market, many coins are so hard to find they WILL bring huge money as is in a PCGS CAC holder. Mess with the grades and lose the bean-sorry, your not getting that big pay day.



    How can I as a collector "pressure" the TPG's with my resubmission? All I can do is send the coins in anonymously and hope for the best. The coins should get graded to current market standards...that's all. What, are we know saying that big time collectors and dealers apply more pressure? That would suggest an unlevel playing field. Anything beyond a current market/best grade opinoin is controlled by the TPG's, not me. How am I responsible for a "BAD" culture? I just want the coin graded the correct grade the first time through. And far too often I don't think I even get that.



    Here's the math. Let's say a solid for the grade PCGS MS65 CAC seated type coin is worth $2,000. A MS66 non-CAC is worth $3000-$4000. So even if that 65 CAC gets a "huge" premium when brought to market, it needs to be a 50-100% premium to challenge the MS66.



    If you have really, really nice high end coins, chances are you won't know how to value them. They would probably be easier to value sitting in non-CAC, 1 grade higher holders. Estimating premiums always favors the dealers who arbitrage premiums day in and day out. If you auction the coins, then at least it's a more level field for all to play on. But, even in that case, it's not likely you'll get MS66 money for your superior CAC 65+ coins because room has to be left for the arbitragers/crack artists to make their 25-50%.
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • rickoricko Posts: 98,724 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Grading and stickers are the basis for the money game... sure, they also help the collector who cannot grade... but that is incidental to the real purpose - profit. Nothing wrong with that, however, it should be recognized for what it is. Unless selling, it is all really meaningless. Cheers, RickO
  • tradedollarnuttradedollarnut Posts: 20,198 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I paid significantly more for my 1795 dollar (MS64+ CAC) than either of the two Pogue non stickered MS65s fetched. Like 50% more. Granted, Stacks flooded the market, but the point is still valid.
  • coinkatcoinkat Posts: 23,816 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Seriously... what do the three coins look like? Maybe your 64 plus is the most attractive and worth 50% more. And if that is the case, are you really paying for the benefit of a CAC sticker or the quality of the coin?

    My point is simply that the quality of the coin seems to be playing second fiddle to a sticker. The credit for the higher price seems to be the sticker and not the coin.

    The reality is that a technical grade even if it is the higher grade may not always be the more desirable coin. I see the coin as what speaks...the overall look of a coin trumps the technical grade or plastic or stickers. There is a subjective component associated with grading and even whether a coin gets a sticker. That subjectivity can change- the coin really remains the same (unless someone takes a different path).

    I am really stunned that point can even be considered valid unless and until we look at the coin.

    Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.

  • MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 24,412 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: DIMEMAN
    Originally posted by: MrEureka
    As a public service, a short synopsis of Laura's article:

    Before you play the upgrade game, consider that maxed out sets turn off buyers.


    Complaining about coins being maxed out makes me see RED!

    Maxed out means it is in the correct holder.....correctly graded.

    Wouldn't it be nice if this could happen first time every time!!!



    My understanding of the phrase "maxed out", as it is commonly used between professional numismatists, is that the coin has achieved it highest reasonably imaginable grade. This allows for multiple submissions, and - through the magic of coin doctors, when necessary - a number of different "looks". Therefore, the "maximum grade" often exceeds what most of us would consider the best, i.e., "correct", grade. This is not to say that a "maxed out" collection is always going to be loaded with doctored coins, but it does mean that the collection will be nearly completely devoid of clearly PQ coins, much less bargains.

    But if you want to use the phrase to mean something else, don't let me stand in your way.
    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
  • GazesGazes Posts: 2,315 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: tradedollarnut

    I paid significantly more for my 1795 dollar (MS64+ CAC) than either of the two Pogue non stickered MS65s fetched. Like 50% more. Granted, Stacks flooded the market, but the point is still valid.




    Interesting. Do you believe the coins are accurately graded ? Look forward to your response. Thanks
  • tradedollarnuttradedollarnut Posts: 20,198 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: Gazes
    Originally posted by: tradedollarnut
    I paid significantly more for my 1795 dollar (MS64+ CAC) than either of the two Pogue non stickered MS65s fetched. Like 50% more. Granted, Stacks flooded the market, but the point is still valid.


    Interesting. Do you believe the coins are accurately graded ? Look forward to your response. Thanks


    I never viewed them - I flew to long beach to do so but they didn't arrive until after I had to leave. I know they didn't sticker and laura didn't care for them. If she had, I would have found a way to view them
  • GazesGazes Posts: 2,315 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: tradedollarnut

    Originally posted by: Gazes

    Originally posted by: tradedollarnut

    I paid significantly more for my 1795 dollar (MS64+ CAC) than either of the two Pogue non stickered MS65s fetched. Like 50% more. Granted, Stacks flooded the market, but the point is still valid.




    Interesting. Do you believe the coins are accurately graded ? Look forward to your response. Thanks




    I never viewed them - I flew to long beach to do so but they didn't arrive until after I had to leave. I know they didn't sticker and laura didn't care for them. If she had, I would have found a way to view them





    Thanks
  • pennyanniepennyannie Posts: 3,929 ✭✭✭
    Pogue collection has gone from the greatest collection offered in the last 20 years to just a so-so overgraded hodgepodge of coins since it floundered in march of this year? I thought some of the greatest minds helped to assemble the collection?
    Mark
    NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!!
    working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!

    RIP "BEAR"
  • tradedollarnuttradedollarnut Posts: 20,198 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: pennyannie
    Pogue collection has gone from the greatest collection offered in the last 20 years to just a so-so overgraded hodgepodge of coins since it floundered in march of this year? I thought some of the greatest minds helped to assemble the collection?


    I posted many many times that it was the only collection that I would pay to view. But I was pretty disappointed in many of the early dollars. The quality was all over the board

  • DMWJRDMWJR Posts: 6,039 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I disagree with the premise. Coins at the top grades should be judged on their own regardless of marketing whether slab or sticker.
    Doug
  • DMWJRDMWJR Posts: 6,039 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I have two coins of the same year with one grading 66+ and the other a 65. The 65 is clearly a better coin, but after two submissions nothing has changed. PCGS has corrected the grades on many that I have, but this one is a mystery except the believe the 66+ was a mistake and they don't believe the 65 should grade higher.
    Doug
  • BoosibriBoosibri Posts: 12,395 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: pennyannie

    I have NEVER had a dealer tell me a coin was over graded, usually just the opposite they say that ms65 should be a ms66+ and priced accordinly. I have never seen a dealer "leave meat on the bone" for the buyer.



    But I do think that undergraded coins bring more at auction when bidders think they can upgrade.




    I see a certain dealer leaving meat on the bone all the time. Periodically they will regrade their own inventory and the same coins come back with a higher grade (and presumably a higher price tag). The deals are there if you know where to look and frankly ask and accept the opinion which is given on the coin. I have had him tell me that the coin is under graded and he was right.
  • GazesGazes Posts: 2,315 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: Boosibri

    Originally posted by: pennyannie

    I have NEVER had a dealer tell me a coin was over graded, usually just the opposite they say that ms65 should be a ms66+ and priced accordinly. I have never seen a dealer "leave meat on the bone" for the buyer.



    But I do think that undergraded coins bring more at auction when bidders think they can upgrade.




    I see a certain dealer leaving meat on the bone all the time. Periodically they will regrade their own inventory and the same coins come back with a higher grade (and presumably a higher price tag). The deals are there if you know where to look and frankly ask and accept the opinion which is given on the coin. I have had him tell me that the coin is under graded and he was right.




    I once asked a dealer I do much business with if a particular coin he had was potentially an upgrade. He was very upfront telling me that if he truly thought that he would resubmit it since he is not in the business to leave money on the table. I appreciated his honesty and knowing that helps me evaluate his coins when looking to purchase.

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