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Poll - Where do you see the coin market 10 years from now for the average collector?
TopographicOceans
Posts: 6,535 ✭✭✭✭
The question really is what is your outlook for the coin market in 10 years for the average collector?
Use the following assumptions in your estimate.
Give your answer as a percentage of the current value ten years from now. So if you think the value will drop 25%, you would select 75% and if you think the value will double, you would select 200%
Use the following assumptions in your estimate.
- All are PCGS coins 10,000 collectors are used in the sample to define the average collector The method of determining the value is the same now and 10 years from now.Only collectors are used in the sample. No dealers or investors.
Give your answer as a percentage of the current value ten years from now. So if you think the value will drop 25%, you would select 75% and if you think the value will double, you would select 200%
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Picking a number comes with making calls on interest rates, gold prices, the stock market etc. what I think will be true is that the average collector who focus on average coins will underperform. The coins in the top 5% in eye appeal (not grade) will perform relatively well and will remain liquid.
In addition, world coins will outperform US coins broadly speaking.
Latin American Collection
Especially for quality, rarity and eye appealing material.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
Compare coin club membership today to 20 years ago.
I think many of the newer online coin people are flippers, not collectors. The longest threads on here are about flipping the UHR, and skeleton finger WDDR 006.
Coin collecting will not go away. But it is deteriorating in popularity.
Subscriptions are due now.
The US market will likely continue along separate paths-
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
If silver would just go up to make new highs above $50/oz,
at least they'd be able to melt a lot of the old crappy bullion and mint it into new crappy bullion
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
72/1 percent = 72 years
72/2 percent = 36 years
72/3 percent = 24 years
72/4 percent = 18 years
72/6 percent = 12 years
72/7.2 percent = 10 years
72/9 percent = 8 years
72/12 percent = 6 years
For those of you that chose 200%, you are basically stating that the coin market goes up 7.2% on average every year. For those of you who said 500%, that would assume an average annual rate of return around 17.5% per year which I don't think is realistic for the average collector. Honestly, for the "average" investor, I think the amounts are much less. I voted for 120% which averages out to an annual rate of return of around 1.84% per year. When you look at it this way, coin collecting is not really a good investment. At best, for the ABOVE AVERAGE collector, I think coin collecting is equivalent to investing in investment grade bonds or very safe stocks. Since the assumption in the first post is to take a cross section of 10,000 investors, I think it would be very hard to argue anything higher than 200% is very realistic even in a booming coin market. I can't remember a 10 year period where coins were increasing 7.2% on average every year for a decade.
This is why we call it a hobby, not an investment for the average collector
1. Strong hands have held many unmolested gems for years. Those old timers are going to be passing on soon enough. Families convinced that the old man's collection is worth a fortune will be selling. This is a great opportunity to acquire top quality pieces at fair prices. I actually think there may be a bit of a glut of such material in the next 10 years. All the while Coin Doctors and Coin Doctor wannabe's will ensure that the populations for "unmolested" coins will continue to be reduced.
2. The middle class in America continues to shrink at an ever increasing and alarming rate. Since nobody seems willing to address this problem in a meaningful way what the future seems to hold is a huge piece of the pie for the top 5% and then table scraps for everyone else. If you're one of the 95% struggling, you won't have the luxury to collect anything beyond the "made for collectors" garbage leaving the Mint that while attractive is not rare and never will be. I can't see this stuff ever really competing with actual collector coins (once) meant for circulation.
3. Collectibles as investments is usually not a great idea however, coins, paper money and cars have stood the test of time nicely. I wouldn't be surprised to see coins gain favor with the top 5% since many other investment vehicles will see changes that are unpalatable to otherwise sophisticated investors. Major collections are being broken up and sold off today. There will be people out there buying (openly or otherwise) to assemble even greater collections. The disposable income to do so will be available.
I just don't see the younger generation taking up the slack, not even by 10%. for every 5-7 passing away, maybe 1 new collector forms.
that means an awful lot of stuff, is coming into and has been coming into the market as of late, If I were keeping anything for the long term, it would be stuff in high demand, PQ, and stuff that every one will always want but not easy too find.
What was ANA membership for 20-40 year olds this year? Compare that to 20 years ago.
Compare coin club membership today to 20 years ago.
What was internet numismatic message board participation among 20-40 year-olds this year compared to 20 years ago?
Keeper of the VAM Catalog • Professional Coin Imaging • Prime Number Set • World Coins in Early America • British Trade Dollars • Variety Attribution
One thing I have noticed, awful lot of collectors have died off, just in the past year, that I know. Some of these folks were big impact buyers on the local market and even nationally.
ive heard this from shops. 1-2 big buyers are lost and the impact is really felt.
ive no idea about 10 years from now. cant even speculate.
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Moderns in general will be a lot lower the coin mill / mass quantity MS69 coins in slabs will be hit in a major way. Moderns I think will see lower values due to the over-saturation and lower demand progressively. Proofs in later period 1968 and up slabs will be in free fall as well due to over-saturation and diminishing demand. If you think there is malaise now wait a few more years in that market segment.
The exception among the moderns may be real collector coins like the 83 quarters in gem MS65 and up these will be a lot higher as will be circulation strike IKE'S in MS66 and up. These have a ton of upward possibility if the market sees them for how rare they are.
most 1934 and later Mercury , Walkers , Lincolns will be lower in 10 years then today they are overvalued in slabs and not remotely rare. Common slabs Morgans and Franklin's will continue to drop in value as more and more of the coin market moves online it will be far greater in 10 years.
I do think that many areas of seated coinage will be significantly more expensive as some of the so called common dates are more sought after many are tough in nice collector grades. In general nice US type and early copper in nice for grade and original or attractive market acceptable will see much higher prices and the demand will be there. The new collectors will be collecting US type and driving the prices upward.
Who really knows of course.
NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!!
working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!
RIP "BEAR"