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Pogue IV auction 5-24-16 - Some price guesses - top catalog est. NOT including the 1822 $5 and 1804
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The Pogue IV auction will be taking place on Tuesday May 24, 2016. Got any guesses on the total prices realized or on any particular lots? Does not matter if based on studied knowledge or just a WAG for fun.
My total guess for the auction is $31,500,000.
It has only 63 lots with 2 of the most valuable coins ever to be auctioned. The upper catalog estimates total about $15.5 Million not including the 1822 $5 and 1804 $ for which Stack's did not publish estimates except “Upon Request”. I'm thinking those could add another $15 million to the total.
My guesses on Pogue III in February ended up being way high after being low for each of the two earlier Pogue auctions. But I will take a stab at nailing jello to the wall again. Likely to be off by millions one way or the other. There are those would complain such guesses are harmful and will make the market look too weak or too strong, but I'm just doing it for fun and a test of my perception of a market area I am unlikely to otherwise play around in.
All my amounts include the buyers fee.
***1804 Class I Original $ PCGS Proof-68 - - - $8,225,000 This one already holds the fourth highest auction price at $4,140,000 in 1999. This and the 1822 $5 I think are going to be hard to guess as even the bidders' intended limits might change on the fly while bidding. Would not be surprised if it went anywhere in a range from $5 million to $11 million.
***1822 $ PCGS AU-50 - - - $7,050,000 This one brought $687,500 in the weak 1982 market. Many of the major rarities have been bringing about 10 to 20 times their 1979 to mid 1980's prices. Thinking the same will hold here. Like the 1804 or even more so, I think the 1822 $5 is very hard to guess since it is the only publicly available one and has been off the market for so long. This may be the only coin where there are no others available for that year. It is not just a variety like the 1825/4 $5 or mint mark like the 1854-S $5 or unique 1870-S Half Dime. Also would not be surprised if it went anywhere in a range from $5 million to $11 million. I would rather have this one than the 1804.
Guesses on other potential $1 million plus coins:
***1795 Draped Bust $ PCGS Specimen-66 - - - $1,292,500 (brought $170,000 in 1980 and $143,000 in 1985)
***1825/4 $5 PCGS-64 - - - $1,410,000 (brought $220,000 in 1982, off the market since then. Finest of 2 known, the other auctioned at $690,000 in 2008 as NGC AU-50)
***1829 Large Planchet $5 PCGS-66+ - - - $1,175,000 (brought $82,500 in 1982, off the market since then. )
***1829 Small Planchet $5 PCGS-65+ - - - $1,175,000 (brought $374,000 in 1996. )
***1833 $5 PCGS Proof-67 - - - $1,410,000 (brought $977,500 in 2005. )
***1835 $5 PCGS Proof-67+ - - - $940,000 (brought $690,000 in 2005. )
Here is the link to the lot listings:
https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/auctions/3-4HY9M
A link to the PDF catalog which often has additional interesting reading info beyond that in the lot listings can be found on this page:
http://www.stacksbowers.com/AU...NS/CatalogLibrary.aspx
You can watch live bidding on the Stacks Bowers site if logged in I believe.
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Comments
I highly doubt that the 1804 will break 4.7 mil hammer if it sells at all. A very generous 68 given the strike, more like a 66.
I'll take that bet. I know some folks who would probably just buy it on spec if it sold for under $7 MILL. If there's a reserve on the 1804 $, it's probably set well above $5 MILL. I would think it's realized price would be $7.7-$11 MILL range. If I had to pick an exact price I'd go with $8,225,000 on the 1804 and $5,875,000 on the 1822.
Irrelevant whether it's graded 66, 67 or 68, as it's still the finest known specimen. You don't grade bust dollars like Morgan dollars. If we did, then over 90% of the currently graded "unc" bust dollars would become XF-AU.
If I had the money to buy the 1822 $5....and then trade it even for the 1804 $ PF68 the following day....I'd do it. Let's see which of those 2 wins and by how much.
Unfortunately, I don't expect three of the top coins to sell so I couldn't even hazard a guess on the total
Wow, that would really stink if they don't sell.
Looking for Top Pop Mercury Dime Varieties & High Grade Mercury Dime Toners.
Unfortunately, I don't expect three of the top coins to sell so I couldn't even hazard a guess on the total
Wow, that would really stink if they don't sell.
Well, they would if there were no reserves.
1804 Unsold
.......and the Wogster nails it
1804 Unsold
Unsold for now......S/B website first listed this as SOLD for $10,810,000 after approx 5+ min or so with the lot open. Obviously it went well above opening $4 MILL bid. It's not like the auctioneer was going to wait 5 min to get an opening bid from the floor. Now listed as PASSED. Like in the Mecum car auctions...."and the bid goes on"....behind the scenes.
The Wogster will have to explain the $9 MILL initial hammer price that was later rejected as well as the 5 min of "phony" bidding to get up there from the Wog's $4.7 MILL estimate. If there was real money on this in the $7-$10 MILL range, then the story is more than it went "unsold." Could be the Pogues wanted a world record for a US silver dollar.... or nothing.
Bask in my glory of being the first and only (until TDN chimed in) to call it as going unsold.
I highly doubt that the 1804 will break 4.7 mil hammer if it sells at all. A very generous 68 given the strike, more like a 66.
You don't even get partial credit with the $4.7 MILL hammer estimate. Price was the most important part of this exercise. If it bid on real money to $9.2 MILL ($10.81 Mill with the juice) and didn't sell, that's a win for the 1804 dollar as far as I'm concerned as that would be the HIGHEST price ever at auction for a US coin, "technically" dethroning the 1794 SP66 dollar. And that $10 MILL sale is sort of odd considering the winning bidder jumped themselves by approx $1.5 MILL - $2 MILL to get there. Both of these coins had "unusual" auction appearances. I'm somewhat surprised there was a probable real money bid at $9 MILL hammer.
Unsold for now because the Pogue's love it more than anyone else. It's not like they have to sell the most famous US rarity today. Tomorrow is another day.
Quote: "1804 $1 is still the king of American coins but this particular specimen is overgraded by two points just like they all are. The toning is reportedly into the metal, but the other top specimens have their own issues [scratched out spot in the obverse field on a 67, punched in initial etc] so it's still probably the best. However the combination of a slight environmental damage along with a too optimistic grade just puts a bad spin on things. Unreserved, it probably would have opened and advanced a bid or two. $5M"
Well, It was a great fishing expedition, and as Mark stated, 'Chum in the water'. No one biting, and without paddles waving on the floor, the coin certainly did not establish itself as a 9 or 10 mil coin, or 8, 7, 6, but perhaps 5, maybe...............
Oh the drama.............
I dont believe in buyback prices.
top two coins dont sell, total prices realized is 15 Mio USD.
This was my forecast.
Bask in my glory of being the first and only (until TDN chimed in) to call it as going unsold.
Wogster??
without paddles waving on the floor, the coin certainly did not establish itself as a 9 or 10 mil coin, or 8, 7, 6, but perhaps 5, maybe...............
Paddle waving has all but gone the way of the mail bid these days. Most serious players are bidding anonymously, online, even if they are sitting in the room. Now, I have no idea if that was the case here, but I do know that an absence of paddles doesn't mean squat.
Coin Rarities Online
The 1822 half eagle is a circulated coin which turns a few whales off from the beginning. I think that it's a more interesting coin than the 1804, but since it's priced well beyond my ability to pay, I can only watch and chew popcorn. Since this is only example that any private collector will ever own, it's hard to put a price on it.
As for the coins that were within my range that interested me, the 1838-C half eagle in MS-63 brought $235,000. I can live without it at that level. I bought an AU for bit over $200,000 less, and I now know my place in the pecking order.
without paddles waving on the floor, the coin certainly did not establish itself as a 9 or 10 mil coin, or 8, 7, 6, but perhaps 5, maybe...............
Paddle waving has all but gone the way of the mail bid these days. Most serious players are bidding anonymously, online, even if they are sitting in the room. Now, I have no idea if that was the case here, but I do know that an absence of paddles doesn't mean squat.
I have to disagree. Sure, there are phone bidders...but most of the serious collectors these days have auction representation sitting in the room making bids. Those are two of the most desirable coins in all of numismatics...and not one dealer in the room made an effort to lift a paddle. Shocking is the word that comes to mind...
without paddles waving on the floor, the coin certainly did not establish itself as a 9 or 10 mil coin, or 8, 7, 6, but perhaps 5, maybe...............
Paddle waving has all but gone the way of the mail bid these days. Most serious players are bidding anonymously, online, even if they are sitting in the room. Now, I have no idea if that was the case here, but I do know that an absence of paddles doesn't mean squat.
I have to disagree. Sure, there are phone bidders...but most of the serious collectors these days have auction representation sitting in the room making bids. Those are two of the most desirable coins in all of numismatics...and not one dealer in the room made an effort to lift a paddle. Shocking is the word that comes to mind...
This might be a reflection of the state of coin hobby, which might mean that we all be sitting in deck chairs on the Titanic. I'm still surprised that the Pogues passed on the bid for the 1804 Dollar, however.
I have to disagree. Sure, there are phone bidders...but most of the serious collectors these days have auction representation sitting in the room making bids. Those are two of the most desirable coins in all of numismatics...and not one dealer in the room made an effort to lift a paddle. Shocking is the word that comes to mind...
I saw a lot of spooked bidders at the Jan 2009 FUN auction (and then B&M's March 2009 Balty sale) as the market was crashing down. Those dealers didn't want to raise a paddle for even the nicest all-there coins in the 5-6 figure range. They probably would have had rigor mortis at the 7-8 figure level. Hard to say why the paddles stayed down. If most everyone of importance knew it would take 8 figures to buy the 1804, most of them probably figured why even bid? Once you indicated a no-sale was going to occur, self-fulfilling prophecies took over from there.
I was there also. I really was not under the impressions that bidders were "spooked." There was quite a bit of active bidding at the 2009 FUN Platinum Night. Jim O'Neal's consignment brought far more than I expected that it would. I will dig out my catalogue and review it again. Also, Queller's collection of patterns was auctioned that same week and fared really well.
http://www.coinlink.com/News/f...6-million-part-3-of-3/
I really believe that, at Pogue IV, bidders were spooked by the secret reserves, not by market factors.
Pogue Family Coin Collection Part 18 – Half Dollars and Bust Dollars Fare Well in 4th Auction
I was considering to bid on the 1804 Dollar. Yes I was.
And I was asking for the reserve.
And I was told that I should not bid at all as the coins will be bought back in any case. I was told they are not for sale.
Why would someone do that ? (even if they are reserved, you want bids)
Here is the point why I believe the two big coins maybe had no real bids at all:
I was considering to bid on the 1804 Dollar. Yes I was.
And I was asking for the reserve.
And I was told that I should not bid at all as the coins will be bought back in any case. I was told they are not for sale.
Why would someone do that ? (even if they are reserved, you want bids)
Wow and wow
Latin American Collection
Best, SH
Here is the point why I believe the two big coins maybe had no real bids at all:
I was considering to bid on the 1804 Dollar. Yes I was.
And I was asking for the reserve.
And I was told that I should not bid at all as the coins will be bought back in any case. I was told they are not for sale.
Why would someone do that ? (even if they are reserved, you want bids)
In the hope that you would allocate your funds to other items. They had the phone and 'the book' to establish a 'value', which the naïve and wishful thinkers still believe. There are those that maintain that Elvis is alive and that the Earth is flat.
Here is the point why I believe the two big coins maybe had no real bids at all:
I was considering to bid on the 1804 Dollar. Yes I was.
And I was asking for the reserve.
And I was told that I should not bid at all as the coins will be bought back in any case. I was told they are not for sale.
Why would someone do that ? (even if they are reserved, you want bids)
Thanks for sharing this.
The Pogue collection will be remembered as one of the greatest accumulations in numismatics but sadly the sales will be partly be remembered for the auction shenanigans.
I tend to discount them heavily, though they do indicate that coins are NOT available at specific levels. For various reasons, a consignor could always arrange for his friends to bid a coin up to some pre-arranged level. A point that is clear is that it would have required more than $11 million to buy the 1804. How much more, I do not know.
Also, Private, you are talking too much in this thread. You may not wish for dealers to bother you incessantly or try to bleed you in the future. I am under the impression that you have already been advised regarding computer security.
TDN: "I have to disagree. Sure, there are phone bidders...but most of the serious collectors these days have auction representation sitting in the room making bids."
I agree that, at a SBG auction, most serious collectors would have a dealer or consultant in the room. Note, though, that TDN said "most," certainly not nearly all. Nonetheless, I think that collectors should listen to TDN on this point.
TDN: "Those are two of the most desirable coins in all of numismatics...and not one dealer in the room made an effort to lift a paddle. Shocking is the word that comes to mind.."
This is not a fair statement. I am aware of bidders for both the 1822 and the 1804. They thought that the starting bids were the reserves, as did I, before the sale, Once the announcement about secret reserves was made, bidders were waiting to see what would happen and were concerned about the levels for these two coins.
Marvelous Pogue Family Coin Collection Part 18 – Half Dollars and Bust Dollars Fare Well in 4th Auction
Marvelous Pogue Family Coin Collection, part 17: Importance of 4th Sale to Collectors who Cannot Afford the Coins
insightful10@gmail.com
a consignor could always arrange for his friends to bid a coin up to some pre-arranged level. A point that is clear is that it would have required more than $11 million to buy the 1804. How much more, I do not know.
I wonder how many people are approved to bid 11 MM and also, if it hammers on your friends bid, you owe Stacks a couple million bucks for buying your own coin.
a consignor could always arrange for his friends to bid a coin up to some pre-arranged level. A point that is clear is that it would have required more than $11 million to buy the 1804. How much more, I do not know.
I wonder how many people are approved to bid 11 MM and also, if it hammers on your friends bid, you owe Stacks a couple million bucks for buying your own coin.
At least one
If you friend knows the reserve, what are the chances of that?
a consignor could always arrange for his friends to bid a coin up to some pre-arranged level. A point that is clear is that it would have required more than $11 million to buy the 1804. How much more, I do not know.
I wonder how many people are approved to bid 11 MM and also, if it hammers on your friends bid, you owe Stacks a couple million bucks for buying your own coin.
At least one
If you friend knows the reserve, what are the chances of that?
I guess with a reserve it would be fine. I was thinking Analyst was saying that could be done instead of a reserve, which would be very risky of course!
I was able to predict a no sale thanks to my intuitive psychic powers.
It was funny the first time...............not so much here.
Wabbit: "I guess with a reserve it would be fine. I was thinking Analyst was saying that could be done instead of a reserve, which would be very risky of course! "
The mis-understanding could be my fault. I was responding to Private's point regarding consignor buybacks in a general way, without limiting my response to the Pogue IV sale.
In the past, especially before 2000, dealer-buybacks at coin auctions were common. Bidding might start at 2,000, several participants could become involved, and then a dealer may buy his coin back for 15,000. Private was saying that such a 15,000 buyback should not be considered a data point. I put forth two follow-up arguments:
First, if the dealer wished to buy a coin back for 15k, in some auctions held a long time ago, he might have his friends bid it up to 14. Such staged bidding really happened; I witnessed many events when I was covering auctions for Numismatic News newspaper and other publications.
Second, there is a bit of educational information in a consignor-buyback. If a consignor retains ownership when the level reaches 15,000, then it is clear that an amount greater than 15,000 would have been needed to buy that coin.
This second point is relevant to the Pogue IV sale. It is clear that more than $11 million would have been needed to buy the Pogue 1804. How much more, I do not know. Even so, it is a fact, not an opinion, that the Childs-Pogue 1804 could not have been purchased for less than $11 million at the Pogue IV sale. I disagree with Private in that I find this to be a data point that matters.
For the readers who did not understand that TDN was joking in a post above, I was NOT implying that my friends and I knew the reserves for the Pogue 1804 or 1822 coins. Quite the opposite is true; we thought that the starting bid for each lot in Pogue IV, before online bids if any, was indicative of the respective reserve. For most lots in Pogue IV, I still believe that this was true; the original bids were indicative of reserves. Did anyone else note the ^ signs in the online catalogue next to the original 'bids'?
Marvelous Pogue Family Coin Collection Part 18 – Half Dollars and Bust Dollars Fare Well in 4th Auction
Marvelous Pogue Family Coin Collection, part 17: Importance of 4th Sale to Collectors who Cannot Afford the Coins
insightful10@gmail.com
given the information in this thread--the bid prices for the 1804 or 1822 mean absolutely nothing. They could be high or they could be low or they could be accurate. What is 100% is they are useless in determining a value. Even if some real bids were mixed in, at least two bidders in this thread were told not to bother. Clearly others felt the same way. Arguably with "real bidders" the values could have been more. I just think it is impossible to use the bid information and results to conclude anything about these coins given what we now are learning.
As long as we have the Miss Cleo's of the world here with their "psychic powers," we know exactly what the 1804 and 1822 are worth.
The results of this event cannot have a good effect upon the reputation of the auction house or even the Pogue family. The "auction" was really not an auction at all. The best that one can say about it is that it was a publicity event that was conducted as a faux capstone for a major auction.
Latin American Collection
If I put my 1794 into auction and reserve it for $20M and have no buyback fee, that says little about its value. If, however, I pay a 2% fee for buying it back then it's starting to matter
let me know in advance and I will place a bid of 19 Million, then its officially worth 19 !
But only on 2 lots out of hundreds. That can still be an auction. Considering all the "psychic powers" observed by several of our members well before the sale, one would think that anyone of note planning to bid to buy the 1804/1822 were well aware of what they were up against. If any other lots were potentially played the same way please identify them.
No, that is not accurate. One would not expect to still be bidding against the consigner after the consigner's opening bid had been announced. Had the consigner had a secret selling price that was used during that live auction that might been exceeded and ended in a successful sale, that could only be called for it is, shilling.
The honorable action would have been to have withdrawn both lots before the live auction if the consigner really had no intention of selling the items. Since these two lots garnered a great deal of publicity for the auction, more than any of the other coins that were in the sale, my description of them as "faux capstones" is accurate.
BoosiBri: "They would have just been better to have just pulled the lots if there was no intention of selling them. No [knowledgeable and/or properly advised] buyer would use the levels which the coins were bid to as a new established price level for these issues."
With my additions in brackets, I agree with this statement. There was not set an "established price level." A point that I made above is that a prospective buyer found out that more than $11 million would have been required to buy the Childs-Pogue 1804 in May 2016. How much more, I do not know. Still, the fact that a bid below $11 million would not have been successful is a significant piece of information.
The Marvelous Pogue Family Coin Collection, part 19: Most Dynamic Half Eagles in 4th Auction
insightful10@gmail.com
No, that is not accurate. One would not expect to still be bidding against the consigner after the consigner's opening bid had been announced. Had the consigner had a secret selling price that was used during that live auction that might been exceeded and ended in a successful sale, that could only be called for it is, shilling.....
TDN, PCC, the Wogster, and others here on the forum who had little to no interest in becoming owners forecasted the no sales. Apparently it was common knowledge. While bidders may have not known exactly how this was going to go down, it was clear that buying the coins was a very unlikely probability. That part is accurate.
I agree with Analyst that the levels these coins reached when being "passed," is an important piece of market information.
No, that is not accurate. One would not expect to still be bidding against the consigner after the consigner's opening bid had been announced. Had the consigner had a secret selling price that was used during that live auction that might been exceeded and ended in a successful sale, that could only be called for it is, shilling.....
TDN, PCC, the Wogster, and others here on the forum who had little to no interest in becoming owners forecasted the no sales. Apparently it was common knowledge. While bidders may have not known exactly how this was going to go down, it was clear that buying the coins was a very unlikely probability. That part is accurate.
I agree with Analyst that the levels these coins reached when being "passed," is an important piece of market information.
Bullpucky
Hypothetically, let us assume that TDN does just that. Except for a few insiders who may hear rumors that they cannot confirm, bidders would not know whether there is a 2% reserve fee or no fee if it fails to sell. Either way, the 'result' would provide some information about its value. If someone buys that 1794 dollar for more than $20 million, then it would become clear that at least one person is willing to pay that much, which would be a significant piece of information. If no one bids, then it would become clear that a bid of at least $20 million would have been needed to acquire that coin on that day. In such a scenario, the fact that the consignor would then refuse to sell it for less than $20 million would be 'news' and would provide information to people seeking a 1794 dollar. They would know to seek a different one or maybe to collect high quality, early half dollars instead.
Incredible Carter 1794 silver dollar
PRC: "let me know in advance and I will place a bid of 19 Million, then its officially worth 19!"
This point is well taken. Many times, I have said, in the history of coin auctions, there have been situations where a consignor has explicitly or implicitly encouraged others to place bids below the "buyback" level. I never suggested that a failure to meet a reserve means that a market value is established.
Roadrunner: "I agree with Analyst that the levels these coins reached when being "passed," is an important piece of market information."
TDN: Bullpucky
There are many collectors who would like to own an 1804 dollar. As far as I know, none of them will pay $11m for one. So, someone who is willing and able to spend a lesser amount will know that the Childs-Pogue 1804 was not available for less than 11m. He can then decide to spend his funds on other coins and/or wait for another 1804. If he decides to wait for another 1804, he can reconfigure his budget accordingly.
A prospective buyer for an 1804 dollar has learned an important piece of information from the outcome of the bidding for Childs-Pogue coin. The piece of information is NOT the value of the 1804 dollar. The piece of information is that it could NOT be bought for a price below $11 million. This startled me. I have been writing about 1804 dollars for more than twenty years, and I have seen almost all the privately owned 1804 dollars. My estimates of the wholesale and retail levels for this 1804 are all certainly well under $11 million.
1804 Silver Dollar Sells for $3.88 million
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