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April 2016 Baltimore Show Report

TomBTomB Posts: 21,980 ✭✭✭✭✭
It was with rather low expectations that I departed for the April 2016 Baltimore coin show early last week. The spring and fall Baltimore shows, the summer ANA and winter FUN are the shows that generally have very good attendance and bourse floor activity. Those times that they do not have either good attendance and/or bourse floor activity are the times when the overall market is very shaky or slow. Over the course of the last two years there have been multiple instances where these shows have been hurting and have been, in many ways, only a shadow of what they have been a mere decade prior.



These four shows are also just the face, or most obvious symptom, of those things that have been ailing the overall coin market for at least eight years. In no order, I would suggest that the terrible economy, a change in how coins are distributed through the market and the downward pressure of "bad" coins that overhangs the market have all exerted pressure on the overall health of the hobby-industry and have served to drag us into our own version of what might be thought of as similar to the stagflation of the 1970s.



Given that cheery outlook, I was prepared for what might be a grim show, but hoped for the best and that we might see increase liquidity and activity on the bourse.



image



This was the first major show in several years where I walked the floor exclusively instead of spending a certain amount of time behind a table. While I have "squatter's rights" with many generous table-holders at the show, I did not want to continuously interrupt their schedules while also tethering myself down. Therefore coins, invoices, checkbook, loupes, iPad, water, protein bars, Excedrin, etc...were in the backpack and I was constantly on the move. Many full-time and quite a few part-time dealers do the same and we form a revolving army of coin folk up and down the aisles along with the collectors who take the time to attend the shows, too. I typically write bullet points about what happens at shows and will do this here, too, but want to first state that the show exceeded all of my expectations for buying, selling and overall energy on the bourse. Part of the experience may have been due to my walking the floor instead of staying more anchored to a table, but I always make large blocks of time to walk the floor when I am at a table so it could not be completely attributed to the change of strategy. Below are my observations and/or bits of advice-



image



1) If you are a collector visiting a large show and plan on spending the better part of the day on the bourse then I can't recommend enough to bring lots of water with you. I find that keeping hydrated keeps headaches at bay and keeps me more energetic while allowing better focus. I drink at least four and up to eight 500ml bottles of water each day while on the bourse and this starts with one full bottle in a matter of seconds upon entering the bourse area and continues with large amounts of water throughout the day.



2) There is what I call "hoarding selectivity" going on with certain coins. This goes beyond what we think of as the traditional key dates when we receive our first Red Book and goes into slightly better dates that may or may not have conditional rarity issues as well. Two conditional examples from the Barber series are the 1897-O Barber quarter and the 1904 Barber half dollar, both in VF or higher. Two other Barber examples would be the 1901-O and 1909-O Barber quarters in any grade. These coins are out there and they are not rare, but some dealers and collectors have numerous examples of each and this helps drain the supply on the floor. Do not get caught up in chasing coins that are otherwise available, but are hoarded into scarcity.



3) Anyone who knows anything about me will realize that I adore the 1839-O Reeded Edge half dollar and it is, in fact, my favorite US issue. While I think it a wonderful coin, there are always examples on the bourse. However, most are either worn to a nub or have been "enhanced" over the years. Simply because a coin is in a TPG holder does not assure someone of buying a choice specimen. There were at least four 1839-O Reeded Edge half dollars in EF through AU and certified by respected TPGs that all appeared to have spent significant time in rock tumblers. Some looked as though they were in the tumblers with razor blades while others looked a bit cooked for the experience. I can only advise patience so that you don't buy coins that will make you regret the purchase in the future.



4) Please, please, please don't wait until a show to tell a dealer that you wanted a coin on his/her site but assumed it would still be available at the show only to be disappointed that it had just sold to someone else. This happened to me twice at this last show when clients approached me about coins that had just been sold. They hadn't contacted me earlier because the show was so close. No one wins in that situation.



5) I spent a bit of time going through the supply of Civil War era Seated Liberty half dollars and the lack of material was amazing, especially the P-mint coins with significant meat and any amount of original surfaces. These coins are tougher than their prices indicate.



6) "Better date" or "sleeper" coins have been largely comatose for at least two years and many dealers and collectors are treating such coins like generic issues with greater regularity.



7) I stopped at one table to ask a question and the dealer apologized to me that he was eating a sandwich while attempting to help. It made me think about all those times I have read on coin forum discussions about dealers being slobs or rude and how so many folks ridicule dealers for their eating habits. I have been on both sides of the table many times and my protein bar and bottle of water strategy works very well; I can eat and drink in less than two minutes and can do so sitting down, standing up or while helping a client. However, not everyone wants this as their only food for a ten-hour stretch while working. Imagine yourself at work for ten-hours with no visual privacy, a small cramped space and clients all around, each of whom would like to be taken care of immediately, but not knowing which of those clients will stop and ask for your help at any given moment. Then imagine attempting to eat; can you turn your back to them and eat more elegantly on the table behind you or should you face them and attempt a faster scarfing of food off a plate on your lap? Neither is appealing, and most dealers don't feel comfortable leaving their table unattended for long as it might mean less business and also increases exposure to theft. This issue might not be so simple as a pool of people believe.



8) There were fewer dealers in attendance, in my opinion, than there have been at past Baltimore shows and this is unusual for a spring Baltimore show. Perhaps a dealer shakeout is well underway.



9) There were also fewer collectors or overall floor traffic at the show, but it felt like there was more buzz or energy associated with those folks who were in attendance.



10) The above two points are consistent with my observation that the coin market is better (more liquidity, quicker turnover, even some nicer coins) than it has been recently when it might best have been described as brutal.



11) Prices for many coins are significantly lower than they have been in the last few years and I imagine that this contributes to increased liquidity, too.



12) Many dealers who had PCGS OGH coins were pushing them aggressively. While there are many fresh to the market, wonderful PCGS OGH coins that pop up from time-to-time, there are also many, many, many retreads in such holders just waiting for an insert buyer.



13) Original surfaces look to be commanding more premiums across a broader range of coins series and grades. FINALLY!



No show report would truly be complete without acknowledging that it is the people in the hobby-industry that make the time and effort worthwhile. This is especially true when one considers the increase in enjoyment that is had when one spends time with high integrity individuals. In my case, this would be discussing coins or going out for dinner with dealers such as Rich Uhrich, Dave Wnuck, John Agre and Andy and Alynne Skrabalak as well as collectors who will be identified by their PCGS board names (shish, BigMoose and HalfCollector).
Thomas Bush Numismatics & Numismatic Photography

In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson

image
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Comments

  • ranshdowranshdow Posts: 1,442 ✭✭✭✭
    Incisive report Tom, thanks.
  • JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,852 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Well crafted and I enjoyed the read as always. You seem a little more optimistic on the market in general



    Thank you for putting this together



    Mark
    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
  • JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,852 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Oh and nice Walker! 43-P's cone nice and this is VERY nice



    mark
    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
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  • RYKRYK Posts: 35,799 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Excellent report.



    Timely for me, corresponding with my awakening from my coin slumber.
  • BochimanBochiman Posts: 25,556 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Nice report. Thank you for your insights and sharing.

    I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment

  • TopographicOceansTopographicOceans Posts: 6,535 ✭✭✭✭
    A lot of good insight. Thanks.

    Interesting that you noticed less collectors on the floor. Until the end users (collectors) get more interested, the market won't go up.

    Since you like 1839-O's (I do too) here's my PCGS 40 that I crossed over from a new ANACS 45. One day I'll get the gold 39-O

    image

    image
  • BoosibriBoosibri Posts: 12,370 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Excellent report Tom
  • HighReliefHighRelief Posts: 3,717 ✭✭✭✭✭
    A good reality check with the coin market Tom, Thanks for posting.
  • mariner67mariner67 Posts: 2,746 ✭✭✭
    I enjoyed reading your report....thank you!
    Successful trades/buys/sells with gdavis70, adriana, wondercoin, Weiss, nibanny, IrishMike, commoncents05, pf70collector, kyleknap, barefootjuan, coindeuce, WhiteTornado, Nefprollc, ajw, JamesM, PCcoins, slinc, coindudeonebay,beernuts, and many more
  • SurfinxHISurfinxHI Posts: 2,547 ✭✭✭✭✭
    A great report! Thx!
    Dead people tell interesting tales.
  • pennyanniepennyannie Posts: 3,929 ✭✭✭
    When you walk the floors are you seeking coins from people ( non dealers) walking the isles?
    Mark
    NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!!
    working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!

    RIP "BEAR"
  • BustCudsBustCuds Posts: 1,096 ✭✭✭


    Super Show Report image



    Enjoyed reading your views of the bourse floor.
  • etexmikeetexmike Posts: 6,852 ✭✭✭
    Thanks for taking the time to write a great show report.





    Mike
  • YorkshiremanYorkshireman Posts: 4,583 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Thank you, Tom, for taking the time to share such a well conceived and superbly written report. It was a pleasure to read.
    Yorkshireman,Obsessed collector of round, metallic pieces of history.Hunting for Latin American colonial portraits plus cool US & British coins.
  • GazesGazes Posts: 2,315 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Top notch report! Thank you for taking the time to post it!
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,313 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Superb show report Tom. I like the information on "hoarded scarcity." Some of those dates you mention were readily available in the 1980's...yet not today. It makes you think.



    Other quick foods I like to bring with me include almonds-figs-dark chocolate combo, banana, apple, bottle of protein shake. Quick and easy to keep you on the go.
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • SonorandesertratSonorandesertrat Posts: 5,695 ✭✭✭✭✭
    A good read. Thanks for taking the time to do this.image
    Member: EAC, NBS, C4, CWTS, ANA

    RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'

    CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
  • goldengolden Posts: 9,972 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Thanks for a very nice report.
  • rickoricko Posts: 98,724 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Excellent report and evaluations...thanks Tom...Cheers, RickO
  • TomBTomB Posts: 21,980 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: Justacommeman

    Oh and nice Walker! 43-P's cone nice and this is VERY nice



    mark




    Thanks, Mark! I think the coin is better than an MS67, but that is a heck of a price jump to MS68 territory.

    Thomas Bush Numismatics & Numismatic Photography

    In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson

    image
  • TomBTomB Posts: 21,980 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: pennyannie

    When you walk the floors are you seeking coins from people ( non dealers) walking the isles?




    No. That would be a breach of coin show etiquette. When I walk the floor as a dealer I am attempting to buy and sell with other dealers who have tables. Of course, I take the time to chat with collectors or dealers who are walking the aisles, too, but I do not conduct business in the aisles. There are times when I know I will meet a collector client at a show and we generally leave the bourse and go to a conference room to conduct any business or extended conversations.

    Thomas Bush Numismatics & Numismatic Photography

    In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson

    image
  • Jackthecat1Jackthecat1 Posts: 1,122 ✭✭✭
    Thank you for the interesting and detailed show report.
    Member ANS, ANA, GSNA, TNC



    image
  • Coin FinderCoin Finder Posts: 7,337 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Great Report! Thanks!!! I really appreciate your reports, they have a lot meaning and good information in them.
  • Sunshine Rare CoinsSunshine Rare Coins Posts: 2,334 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Great report and nice meeting up with you!
  • LotsoLuckLotsoLuck Posts: 3,786 ✭✭✭
    Good reading thank you.
  • coinlieutenantcoinlieutenant Posts: 9,319 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Didn't you just sell me on a 97-O quarter in VF a year ago? Tom strikes again. image
  • bidaskbidask Posts: 14,017 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: RYK
    Excellent report.

    Timely for me, corresponding with my awakening from my coin slumber.
    What does that mean directionally for you? image

    I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
    I give away money. I collect money.
    I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.




  • bidaskbidask Posts: 14,017 ✭✭✭✭✭
    "Original surfaces look to be commanding more premiums across a broader range of coins series and grades. FINALLY!"

    This is where money can be made!
    I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
    I give away money. I collect money.
    I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.




  • FlatwoodsFlatwoods Posts: 4,246 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Excellent report, Tom. I enjoyed it.

    Great pics too!
  • MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 24,393 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: bidask
    "Original surfaces look to be commanding more premiums across a broader range of coins series and grades. FINALLY!"

    This is where money can be made!


    Yay!

    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
  • WalkerfanWalkerfan Posts: 9,662 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Thanks, Tom, for taking the time to report and for the valuable insight.



    I like reading first-hand info from a coin show insider.



    Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍

    My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):

    https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/

  • ShortgapbobShortgapbob Posts: 2,332 ✭✭✭
    Well thought-out report, and thanks for stopping by the table with coins to show.

    I can understand the dehydration at the show. I felt like I couldn't keep enough water in me all week.
    "It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it." -- Aristotle

    For a large selection of U.S. Coins & Currency, visit The Reeded Edge's online webstore at the link below.

    The Reeded Edge
  • coindeucecoindeuce Posts: 13,496 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Thanks Tom ! Always consummate articulation.

    Just for fun, I'd like to open up a bag of cotton candy at one particular dealer's table, just to see their eyes bug out of their head. image

    "Everything is on its way to somewhere. Everything." - George Malley, Phenomenon
    http://www.american-legacy-coins.com

  • pennyanniepennyannie Posts: 3,929 ✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: TomB
    Originally posted by: pennyannie
    When you walk the floors are you seeking coins from people ( non dealers) walking the isles?


    No. That would be a breach of coin show etiquette. When I walk the floor as a dealer I am attempting to buy and sell with other dealers who have tables. Of course, I take the time to chat with collectors or dealers who are walking the aisles, too, but I do not conduct business in the aisles. There are times when I know I will meet a collector client at a show and we generally leave the bourse and go to a conference room to conduct any business or extended conversations.


    I did phrase not the question right for you, i have seen some vest pocket dealers do this. From reading your reports i know you sometime share tables etc, and have met a lot of collectors over the years and would assume that some collectors seek you out at shows.

    To be honest i was really wondering about the super secret sellers and stealth buyer for the big dealer that writes reports

    Gun shows have become a zoo and some dealers try to camp by the door to jump on sellers coming thru the door. people walking the isles are free game for anyone.

    I just wondered as coin sales seem to be slowing if some are out birddogging for sales or buys
    Mark
    NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!!
    working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!

    RIP "BEAR"
  • thisnamztakenthisnamztaken Posts: 4,101 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Very enjoyable and enlightening report, Tom. Thanks for writing it.
    I never thought that growing old would happen so fast.
    - Jim
  • oih82w8oih82w8 Posts: 12,511 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: TomB

    Originally posted by: pennyannie

    When you walk the floors are you seeking coins from people ( non dealers) walking the isles?




    No. That would be a breach of coin show etiquette. When I walk the floor as a dealer I am attempting to buy and sell with other dealers who have tables. Of course, I take the time to chat with collectors or dealers who are walking the aisles, too, but I do not conduct business in the aisles. There are times when I know I will meet a collector client at a show and we generally leave the bourse and go to a conference room to conduct any business or extended conversations.





    It's nice to see a class act! image
    oih82w8 = Oh I Hate To Wait _defectus patientia_aka...Dr. Defecto - Curator of RMO's

    BST transactions: dbldie55, jayPem, 78saen, UltraHighRelief, nibanny, liefgold, FallGuy, lkeigwin, mbogoman, Sandman70gt, keets, joeykoins, ianrussell (@GC), EagleEye, ThePennyLady, GRANDAM, Ilikecolor, Gluggo, okiedude, Voyageur, LJenkins11, fastfreddie, ms70, pursuitofliberty, ZoidMeister,Coin Finder, GotTheBug, edwardjulio, Coinnmore, Nickpatton, Namvet69,...
  • thebeavthebeav Posts: 3,875 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: pennyannie
    When you walk the floors are you seeking coins from people ( non dealers) walking the isles?


    I haven't done shows in quite some time, but I remember people getting thrown out of shows for this.
  • ElmerFusterpuckElmerFusterpuck Posts: 4,774 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Fantastic report, felt like I was there! This statement hit home:



    "5) I spent a bit of time going through the supply of Civil War era Seated Liberty half dollars and the lack of material was amazing, especially the P-mint coins with significant meat and any amount of original surfaces. These coins are tougher than their prices indicate."



    This might not be the most popular series, but it does appear that enough people are chasing what few good examples are left. Even rotten examples (raw or slabbed) from this area are scarce, I have yet to see a raw, worn 1864 or 1865 half at show. It took me *forever* to complete my 1861-1865 circulated PCGS slabbed run.
  • dpooledpoole Posts: 5,940 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Thoroughly detailed with insight and savvy as usual, Tom. Thanks.
  • RebelRonRebelRon Posts: 544 ✭✭
    Well done!
  • lkeigwinlkeigwin Posts: 16,893 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I always enjoy your well composed, insightful reports, Tom. There's always a kernel or two for me.



    Speaking of dealers and dining, I sometimes help by being the front man, tending the table while the dealer has a bite in the shadows. If something comes up I cannot handle he's right there to step in. It's human nature to dislike watching someone eat while trying to conduct business. I feel the same way about folks eating while talking to me on the phone.



    Staying hydrated is an excellent tip. Carrying half a dozen water bottles around the bourse is not always possible. I love those dealers who offer water and a smile.

    Lance.
  • deefree49deefree49 Posts: 282 ✭✭✭
    An excellent report, very well done! Thank you for taking time to share this with everyone. +++



    :-)
    Lincoln coin lover, especially Matte Proofs
  • SkyManSkyMan Posts: 9,493 ✭✭✭✭✭
    A Great read Tom! It's nice to hear your take on the market. Sweet looking coins too!
  • ElKevvoElKevvo Posts: 4,133 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Well done....thanks for the insights!!!



    K
    ANA LM
  • TONEDDOLLARSTONEDDOLLARS Posts: 2,928 ✭✭✭✭
    Tom, as usual you present an insightful look at the bourse. Always enjoy your writing style. I do have a serious question what is that Morgan doing in your report. You are a known toned Morgan hater ??
  • PistareenPistareen Posts: 1,505 ✭✭✭
    Thanks for the report Tom -- sorry I missed it. It was the first spring Baltimore I've missed since I was a college kid.

    (In case anyone was worried, I was in France with my stepson's high school marching band. Seeing him perform at the American Cemetery in Normandy seemed like a good reason to skip a coin show. I heard a well known gold specialist from the Northwest held down my table with aplomb …)
  • CoinRaritiesOnlineCoinRaritiesOnline Posts: 3,680 ✭✭✭✭
    I heard a well known gold specialist from the Northwest held down my table with aplomb …)




    He did, but the flavor of our aisle was simply not the same.



  • LakesammmanLakesammman Posts: 17,443 ✭✭✭✭✭
    TomB perpetually on the prowl at a coin show.... now that's scary! image



    Appreciate your observations. image
    "My friends who see my collection sometimes ask what something costs. I tell them and they are in awe at my stupidity." (Baccaruda, 12/03).I find it hard to believe that he (Trump) rushed to some hotel to meet girls of loose morals, although ours are undoubtedly the best in the world. (Putin 1/17) Gone but not forgotten. IGWT, Speedy, Bear, BigE, HokieFore, John Burns, Russ, TahoeDale, Dahlonega, Astrorat, Stewart Blay, Oldhoopster, Broadstruck, Ricko, Big Moose, Cardinal.
  • hchcoinhchcoin Posts: 4,836 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Thanks for the great report.

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