How accurate is the PCGS price guide in determining true value of a collection?

superpsychmd · February 9, 2016 1:45PM

What percentage of a PCGS value is the true value?

TopographicOceans · February 9, 2016 1:50PM

The PCGS price guide is high on some issues and low on others.

For the most part it is intended to be a retail price where a B&M dealer could give a discount on the price guide and still make a profit.

Your best source are HA and eBay sold items.

AUandAG · February 9, 2016 2:03PM

I find it to be extremely helpful......great place to start the process of determining value.

bob

TigersFan2 · February 9, 2016 2:05PM

Somewhere on the PCGS website they explain how they develop the price guide. It's basically a survey of dealer's websites of their ask prices for coins and the results of major auctions. Yes, it's on the high side. If you want a more realistic value of a coin, do an Ebay search of sold auctions for that coin.

I've always believed that someone would have very valuable information if they would write the code to data mine all sold auctions off of Ebay create their own dynamic price guide. Knowing the real market price from actual coin transactions could really help someone make money, know when to buy and when to sell, etc. Unfortunately I'm not a programmer. My wife is, but she has zero interest in coins.

oih82w8 · February 9, 2016 6:39PM

Coinsociety.com has Market Setting prices based on historical ebay sales on some pretty specific certified (PCGS, NGC, ANACS, varieties, OGH, CAC, plus, star, etc...) coinage.

coinsociety.com/priceguide

sparky64 · February 9, 2016 8:54PM

That's quite a site, waiter-hater.

Never saw it before. Thanks.

Traz · February 9, 2016 10:03PM

Originally posted by: oih82w8

Coinsociety.com has Market Setting prices based on historical ebay sales on some pretty specific certified (PCGS, NGC, ANACS, varieties, OGH, CAC, plus, star, etc...) coinage.

coinsociety.com/priceguide

An 1880 MS66 shield nickel for 1200? Sign me up!

It's picking up 3CN prices...

BillJones · February 9, 2016 10:03PM

I have found it to be quite useful in providing retail values for most items. Coins that are scarce and popular can take on a price of their own at auction. That price can often be higher. Really common items can often be purchased for less than the amounts shown there.

lusterlover · February 9, 2016 11:11PM

Originally posted by: Traz

Originally posted by: oih82w8
Coinsociety.com has Market Setting prices based on historical ebay sales on some pretty specific certified (PCGS, NGC, ANACS, varieties, OGH, CAC, plus, star, etc...) coinage.

coinsociety.com/priceguide

An 1880 MS66 shield nickel for 1200? Sign me up!

It's picking up 3CN prices...

I would be careful with this guide. Example: 1C 1909 S VDB MS 65 RD CAC 2,396!!??

CoinRaritiesOnline · February 9, 2016 11:15PM

If you want to ascertain a "true" value, you'll need to do it based on the attributes of the actual coins in the set, not based on avg. guide price values or, worse, using auction records of coins which may not be comparable.

robertpr · February 9, 2016 11:44PM

pcgscoinfacts.com is pretty good, and now it's free! You can see the price guide, then check below for actual prices realized at auctions for both PCGS and NGC examples. That gives you a very good sense of coin values, IMHO. The price guide is generally fairly high, the auction results can give you a good general sense of true value. I expect coins posted on dealer websites, etc. (retail) to be slightly higher than auction prices with room to negotiate.

oih82w8 · February 10, 2016 12:17AM

Originally posted by: lusterlover

Originally posted by: Traz

Originally posted by: oih82w8

Coinsociety.com has Market Setting prices based on historical ebay sales on some pretty specific certified (PCGS, NGC, ANACS, varieties, OGH, CAC, plus, star, etc...) coinage.

coinsociety.com/priceguide

An 1880 MS66 shield nickel for 1200? Sign me up!

It's picking up 3CN prices...

I would be careful with this guide. Example: 1C 1909 S VDB MS 65 RD CAC 2,396!!??

You gotta dig deeper to get the full effect.

If you opened up that particular line listing you would see that the coin was a BN not RD 1909-S VDB in MS65.

http://www.coinsociety.com/auc...CkB_A3_86_10/0/1/0/0/0

That particular coin sold previously;

06-Apr-2014 $2,585 Heritage Internet Coin Auction #131415

I like this "guide" because it shows actual prices for the coins sold on ebay (so the must be in cahoots). It would have to garner participation from dealers who sell off of ebay to be more accurate...but it is pretty darn close.

TigersFan2 · February 10, 2016 12:22AM

Originally posted by: oih82w8
Coinsociety.com has Market Setting prices based on historical ebay sales on some pretty specific certified (PCGS, NGC, ANACS, varieties, OGH, CAC, plus, star, etc...) coinage.

coinsociety.com/priceguide

Thanks for sharing that site. I hadn't seen it before. I'll definitely be using it.

One caveat for that site is that the sold prices they're using are the straight auction/sale price and excludes shipping costs. So in reality, buyers paid on average a little more than the prices stated.

wondercoin · February 10, 2016 2:01AM

Not sure about the comments on the 1880 Shield nickel. COINFACTS shows the value at $110,000 today? I am actually offering the coin on the BST board as well.

Wondercoin

TwoSides2aCoin · February 10, 2016 5:57AM

50% to 80% + or - ten percent , or more.

bigjpst · February 10, 2016 6:33AM

Originally posted by: oih82w8

Originally posted by: lusterlover

Originally posted by: Traz

Originally posted by: oih82w8

Coinsociety.com has Market Setting prices based on historical ebay sales on some pretty specific certified (PCGS, NGC, ANACS, varieties, OGH, CAC, plus, star, etc...) coinage.

coinsociety.com/priceguide

An 1880 MS66 shield nickel for 1200? Sign me up!

It's picking up 3CN prices...

I like this "guide" because it shows actual prices for the coins sold on ebay (so the must be in cahoots). It would have to garner participation from dealers who sell off of ebay to be more accurate...but it is pretty darn close.

pcgs coinfacts also uses pricing from ebay. Problem seems to be that they only track true auctions, and if you do an ebay search of completed sales, coinfacts misses quite a few.

DollarAfterDollar · February 10, 2016 6:54AM

That coinsociety site is kinda weird. They say a coin in MS 65 sold for one price and the same coin in MS 66 sold for far, far less. I take it the only believable numbers are the ones where multiple coins have traded.

Still might be a useful resource.

Boosibri · February 10, 2016 8:42AM

Originally posted by: CoinRaritiesOnline

If you want to ascertain a "true" value, you'll need to do it based on the attributes of the actual coins in the set, not based on avg. guide price values or, worse, using auction records of coins which may not be comparable.

This

bigjpst · February 10, 2016 9:19AM

Originally posted by: CoinRaritiesOnline

If you want to ascertain a "true" value, you'll need to do it based on the attributes of the actual coins in the set, not based on avg. guide price values or, worse, using auction records of coins which may not be comparable.

This is why coinfacts was a decent source because you could click on the realized prices and see the coin that sold. Sure photos may not be the same as in hand inspection, but you could determine if the coin was white/toned. OGH,CAC or many other attributes to help make a relatively informed decision on price. I say was because now it seems that fewer auctions are reported and I feel like when I use coinfacts much is missing.

Walkerfan · February 10, 2016 9:38AM

Originally posted by: BillJones

I have found it to be quite useful in providing retail values for most items. Coins that are scarce and popular can take on a price of their own at auction. That price can often be higher. Really common items can often be purchased for less than the amounts shown there.

roadrunner · February 10, 2016 10:28AM

Originally posted by: superpsychmd

What percentage of a PCGS value is the true value?

Since 80-95% of the coins in the PCGS price guide represents a retail price, the wholesale value of such coins is typically 60-75% of the listed price (ie what you can probably sell them for). For the large majority of coins you can routinely find, this works reasonably well. For common moderns the % could be lower than this. For difficult to find 18th and 19th century coinage (like an 1815 or 1839-0 half), it could be up to 100% or even higher. But, for MOST coins, the 60-75% range works pretty well. I find that 60-70% covers most coins. I used 65% for the most part. If you own or collect difficult to find coins, you already know that general thumb rules don't work all that well.

stman · February 10, 2016 10:57AM

Just curious....... why do so many "collectors" feel they are entitled to wholesale prices for nice coins from dealers?

stman · February 10, 2016 11:07AM

Originally posted by: CoinRaritiesOnline

If you want to ascertain a "true" value, you'll need to do it based on the attributes of the actual coins in the set, not based on avg. guide price values or, worse, using auction records of coins which may not be comparable.

Be nice if all dealers looked at it this way. Oh, when they're selling they do. But buying, a lot of them want to use auction prices (and Ebay if they can) where the coins don't come close to compare. Then they wonder why they can't find great coins. When people like me don't take their very generous Ebay offer.

Edit, not saying my coins are great, just speaking in general. But yes I have turned down these generous Ebay price offers.

oih82w8 · February 10, 2016 8:35PM

What really goes against my grain is when potential buyers "offer" less than 1/4 of the list price, and then say that you have a "common" coin. I simply decline their off and bid them adieu.

TigersFan2 · February 11, 2016 12:17AM

I've noticed several things about the PCGS Price Guide...

1. It compares better with market prices for 19th century coins than 20th century coins.

2. It compares better with market prices for silver coins than copper or nickel coins.

3. It can tend to treat common date coins of the same type as the same coin. It does broad pricing and doesn't seem to get into the finer details. For example, if you look at common date Morgan Dollars, you'll see that they are all in the Price Guide at $62 at MS63 and they'll move together as prices change. But in reality, it's easy to buy an 1886 or 1887 for around $50 whereas it's difficult to buy an 1881 below $62.

How accurate is the PCGS price guide in determining true value of a collection?

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