If the gold coins are truly rare, then I would tend to agree. That would be populations of say up to 50-150 coins total in all grades. But, if we're just talking better or scarce dates even in choice/gem unc, a lot of those have been decimated since 2006-2009.
Since DW is probably talking quality examples of XF-AU rare date gold coins, I would say that in the Barber and Seated arena, similar examples have held up. It's not like quality and original XF/AU examples of 1842-0 sd, 1860-s, 1871-s, 1872-s, 1897-s, and 1901-s quarters grow on trees. Or for that matter 1874-cc dimes and 1878-s halves. I wonder if their prices have truly come down at all in the past couple of years. Sure, the price of dated gem Barber halves like the 1902-0 are down. But I doubt the price of a well struck, XF/AU 1902-0 is any cheaper, if you can find one. Those are possibly rarer than MS64-MS65 specimens. This is just highlighting the fact that as promotions or current fads weaken, the market gets returned to the collectors. One has to wonder if the Registry set era was just another such passing fancy? There probably aren't too many top graded sets in rare date XF/AU circ gold coins or seated quarters for that matter.
I would agree with DW that the most collectible and rarest coins of the 18th and 19th century series have held on pretty well. That can be federal half dimes to dollars, capped bust halves by Overton, 1839-0 halves, and the toughest bust, seated, and Barber coins in general...and typically in the collector sweet spot of choice VF-AU. With that formula anything works in the 19th century. And it worked ok during the coin market down turns of 1980-1982, 1990-1996, and 2008-2011. But that's a top 1% formula where deeper pockets tend to rule. DW's rare 19th century gold coins in choice original circ condition fall into that grouping. I guess you could call them one of the last frontiers because they tend to cost a lot and are a %$#@! to find.
While the rare gold coin market hasn't seen a supply of better dates in a number of years, I do seem to recall that in the 2004-2008 window a number of top collector oriented 19th century gold/silver date sets did hit the auction block (Russ Logan, Jules Reiver, and others). That could happen again.
I have not done well with the very scarce early gold type coins that I purchased, like the 1795 eagle and 1808 quarter eagle. Maybe the Charlotte and Dahlonega coins I purchased have not lost value, but I paid retail prices for them, so I'm still underwater. I don't think that this is a great market at all right now.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
Doug does make a valid point on absolute vs. condition rarity.
Buy the coins that excite you when you hold them in your hand. Invest in stocks, bonds, and real estate. Count on a portfolio of these to grow over time. As a bonus, these securities will pay income with which you can buy coins. Problem solved!
Yorkshireman,Obsessed collector of round, metallic pieces of history.Hunting for Latin American colonial portraits plus cool US & British coins.
Market for things like 74-cc dimes, 78-s halves , cc seated quarters in circ to nicer circ grades have come down a good amount. High end finest known issues, probably not so much. You couldn't buy a 78-s half in XF for less than 75k -80k 2 years ago, not so the case any longer, same with 74-cc dimes, they have come down quite a bit. Now, there are a lot of medicore coins on the market, but even nice ones are tad soft. There are still high prices being asked, but in true auction format there soft.
"Doug does make a valid point on absolute vs. condition rarity. Buy the coins that excite you when you hold them in your hand. Invest in stocks, bonds, and real estate. Count on and portfolio of these to grow over time. As a bonus, these securities will pay income with which you can buy coins. Problem solved!"
Indeed, for Doug. However, if people followed through on this advice and downplayed the investment aspect of coin ownership, the market for rare coins would contract significantly.
Member: EAC, NBS, C4, CWTS, ANA
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
Market for things like 74-cc dimes, 78-s halves , cc seated quarters in circ to nicer circ grades have come down a good amount. High end finest known issues, probably not so much. You couldn't buy a 78-s half in XF for less than 75k -80k 2 years ago, not so the case any longer, same with 74-cc dimes, they have come down quite a bit. Now, there are a lot of medicore coins on the market, but even nice ones are tad soft. There are still high prices being asked, but in true auction format there soft.
Point taken. If that's the case, then it would have to apply to DW's rare gold coins as well. He doesn't offer up any examples of consistently steady prices for specific examples. We're all just taking that on faith. You usually don't have the best collector coins pulling back in the majority of the market, while another sector remains untouched. And to be fair he is using gem dated Barber halves (like a 1902-o) as a comparison. If that's the true comparison, than for the gold coin market we should be comparing against slightly better date gem $10's and $20's where a dozen or so exist in MS65 or higher....not 1861-D $1 golds. So who is going to buy an 1898 or 1898-s $10 in MS65 at least year's stronger price when it shows up? How about an 1895-s or 1897-s $20 in MS65?
1842-D small date $5 gold (I picked this one because I have one...and I know it is not the rarest D mint nor the most common...right in the middle)...maybe a surviving population of 250 certified coins...
Grade XF (collector grade): July 2005 (NGC price is $1720) vs July 2015 (NGC price is $2775)...gain of +61.34%...pretty steady growth...
You can apply to logic to most any hobby and look at a tiny fraction of the overall. I hate to be a party pooper but "paying up" is not a good idea for most collectors. Guys/gals that paid 100 bucks plus for ar-15 mags did not fare well.
The only thing I got when stretching for a coin is a bad back. The value is there or it is not. 20 plus years ago I wanted to buy 100 acres down the road, the owner wanted 15k an acre when the going rate was about 3k a acre. His logic was he did not intend to sell it until 2005 and that is what he figured it would be worth 20 years down the road so if I wanted it I had to pay up. lol
This forum gets some credit for this, RYK went for the dirty gold and others followed suit, same thing happened with matte proof lincolns a few years back, you get 10 to 15 people and dealers singing a song and others will join in on the chorus
Mark NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!! working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!
I tend to believe DW is right about multiple levels of demand. He's been preaching this for some time. Is it because of the dwindling number of rare coin collectors, and this is the final frontier of collapse. I don't know. But with multiple levels of demand, one is clearly going to have more bidders and hence a better result in sale price. I've been looking for an 1861-D gold dollar AU 58 or better ( but not by much ) and they are non existent. I'm number twenty on his customer list for one. But if I have an 1861 gold dollar in MS 66+ ( which I do) I bet I have a bit of a problem getting my price for it. Multiple levels of demand. He's been preaching it for at least two years, if not longer.
Boosibri
Posts: 11,901 ✭✭✭✭✭
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Since DW is probably talking quality examples of XF-AU rare date gold coins, I would say that in the Barber and Seated arena, similar examples have held up. It's not like quality and original XF/AU examples of 1842-0 sd, 1860-s, 1871-s, 1872-s, 1897-s, and 1901-s quarters grow on trees. Or for that matter 1874-cc dimes and 1878-s halves. I wonder if their prices have truly come down at all in the past couple of years. Sure, the price of dated gem Barber halves like the 1902-0 are down. But I doubt the price of a well struck, XF/AU 1902-0 is any cheaper, if you can find one. Those are possibly rarer than MS64-MS65 specimens. This is just highlighting the fact that as promotions or current fads weaken, the market gets returned to the collectors. One has to wonder if the Registry set era was just another such passing fancy? There probably aren't too many top graded sets in rare date XF/AU circ gold coins or seated quarters for that matter.
I would agree with DW that the most collectible and rarest coins of the 18th and 19th century series have held on pretty well. That can be federal half dimes to dollars, capped bust halves by Overton, 1839-0 halves, and the toughest bust, seated, and Barber coins in general...and typically in the collector sweet spot of choice VF-AU. With that formula anything works in the 19th century. And it worked ok during the coin market down turns of 1980-1982, 1990-1996, and 2008-2011. But that's a top 1% formula where deeper pockets tend to rule. DW's rare 19th century gold coins in choice original circ condition fall into that grouping. I guess you could call them one of the last frontiers because they tend to cost a lot and are a %$#@! to find.
Latin American Collection
Buy the coins that excite you when you hold them in your hand.
Invest in stocks, bonds, and real estate. Count on a portfolio of these to grow over time.
As a bonus, these securities will pay income with which you can buy coins.
Problem solved!
Market for things like 74-cc dimes, 78-s halves , cc seated quarters in circ to nicer circ grades have come down a good amount. High end finest known issues, probably not so much. You couldn't buy a 78-s half in XF for less than 75k -80k 2 years ago, not so the case any longer, same with 74-cc dimes, they have come down quite a bit. Now, there are a lot of medicore coins on the market, but even nice ones are tad soft. There are still high prices being asked, but in true auction format there soft.
Indeed, for Doug. However, if people followed through on this advice and downplayed the investment aspect of coin ownership, the market for rare coins would contract significantly.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
I would tend to disagree a little
Market for things like 74-cc dimes, 78-s halves , cc seated quarters in circ to nicer circ grades have come down a good amount. High end finest known issues, probably not so much. You couldn't buy a 78-s half in XF for less than 75k -80k 2 years ago, not so the case any longer, same with 74-cc dimes, they have come down quite a bit. Now, there are a lot of medicore coins on the market, but even nice ones are tad soft. There are still high prices being asked, but in true auction format there soft.
Point taken. If that's the case, then it would have to apply to DW's rare gold coins as well. He doesn't offer up any examples of consistently steady prices for specific examples. We're all just taking that on faith. You usually don't have the best collector coins pulling back in the majority of the market, while another sector remains untouched. And to be fair he is using gem dated Barber halves (like a 1902-o) as a comparison. If that's the true comparison, than for the gold coin market we should be comparing against slightly better date gem $10's and $20's where a dozen or so exist in MS65 or higher....not 1861-D $1 golds. So who is going to buy an 1898 or 1898-s $10 in MS65 at least year's stronger price when it shows up? How about an 1895-s or 1897-s $20 in MS65?
Grade XF (collector grade): July 2005 (NGC price is $1720) vs July 2015 (NGC price is $2775)...gain of +61.34%...pretty steady growth...
The only thing I got when stretching for a coin is a bad back. The value is there or it is not. 20 plus years ago I wanted to buy 100 acres down the road, the owner wanted 15k an acre when the going rate was about 3k a acre. His logic was he did not intend to sell it until 2005 and that is what he figured it would be worth 20 years down the road so if I wanted it I had to pay up. lol
This forum gets some credit for this, RYK went for the dirty gold and others followed suit, same thing happened with matte proof lincolns a few years back, you get 10 to 15 people and dealers singing a song and others will join in on the chorus
NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!!
working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!
RIP "BEAR"
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Thanks for posting DWNs article.
US Civil War coinage
Historical Medals