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Investing in coins vs stocks
ctf_error_coins
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I am on the fence. I have been watching GPRO stock for some time now. I believe a bottom will be formed this month with tax loss selling. I have traded stocks in the past, i.e. internet bubble, but no longer do so. While I really want to buy GPRO stock, everything in me says (even tho I think I know I could make a profit in this stock) to put the money into error coins instead as I know that will make money for sure. I know the stock will help me diversify my portfolio, but I also know I can not control the "games" that are played on wall street. I CAN control what I buy in the way of error coins. Yes I do believe that coins are and should be treated as an investment. What say you?
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I can't think of any area that doesn't have a few deep pockets already IN the game.
IMO better to concentrate on buying cool stuff and reselling fairly quickly to capitalize on eiither your superior "eye" or available source.
Can't comment on stocks as at my age, I have NONE!
And am deliriously happy about that.
But it doesn't sound like you are talking about investing into coins or stocks, it sounds like you are talking about investing into your personal business of buying/selling error coins. That's way different and of course provides much higher returns than buying/selling stocks or just plain old investing, because you're exploiting the knowledge gap between yourself and those who are selling you the material you are looking for.
Wow, really well said and exactly explains where I am at. My take is the higher return is coins into the business.
If you're thinking of a ...specialty... in a coin bizz, you better damn sure know who you're up against.
I can't think of any area that doesn't have a few deep pockets already IN the game.
I know exactly who my competition is and respect them greatly. I know what stage of business they are in and where I can position myself to best help my clients.
As investing relates to stocks, you'll never beat the returns hedge fund managers and others can get, you're best off just picking a low-cost ETF (I love Vanguard funds) and sticking with it. Don't try to beat the market, just tag along for the ride, and you'll do fine. Get an 8% average return, contributing $6k per year to start and growing that by 1% per year you work from 25-65 is just over a million adjusted for ~2.8% inflation.
Plenty of people do WAY better than hedge fund managers and it isn't hard. When I was still investing in stocks (I stopped when I entered college) I and two other friends were killing hedge fund managers and the market as high school students with relatively small amounts of capital (< $5,000 in my case). My best stock pick made my friends ~700% (I was in college at this point).
A little research will reveal that most hedge fund managers are lucky if they beat the market. At least that is the way it was circa 6 years ago.
Not an attack on you, please don't take it that way.
CN eBay
All of my collection is in a safe deposit box!
If you're thinking of a ...specialty... in a coin bizz, you better damn sure know who you're up against.
I can't think of any area that doesn't have a few deep pockets already IN the game.
IMO better to concentrate on buying cool stuff and reselling fairly quickly to capitalize on eiither your superior "eye" or available source.
Can't comment on stocks as at my age, I have NONE!
_>And am deliriously happy about that.
+1000
Is anything a good investment anymore?
I have changed my investment philosophy over the years, and run a concentrated portfolio. My returns have averaged 28% annually since the depths of the crash.
Why did you change your post? It was very interesting.
CN eBay
All of my collection is in a safe deposit box!
Is anything a good investment anymore?
I believe what I buy for inventory is a great investment. I am not sure on the stock so I guess I should pass.
Another investment into my other business I am considering and should probably buy instead of the stock is this 50.6 Megapixel camera ....
I have changed my investment philosophy over the years, and run a concentrated portfolio. My returns have averaged 28% annually since the depths of the crash.
Why did you change your post? It was very interesting.
Honestly, once you break it down... investing is sixth grade math and adult common sense. I can't compete with the Jon Najarians, dark pools, High frequency trading, and hedge funds. I found a game I can beat, and my opponent is Mr Market and it's frantic friends. Tweedy Browne "What Works with Investing" and AMI White Paper called "Buffett Paradox" are my stock investing blueprints. Decades of proof are in the numbers and those two sources can be found via PDF online. Prior to 2009, I believed in mutual funds and no more than 3 to 5% stock weighting, then got slaughtered in the crash. I finally figured out a "system" and aimed to copy those I respected. My father retired a millionaire owning his company stock and reinvesting dividends for 30 years. Buffett in his heyday had 80% of his investments tied to five stocks. A concentrated/contrarian plan was hatched and it's easier to manage. If you take Value Line and look at there spread sheet style layout for each company it's obvious of a few patterns emerge. Whenever I took a financially sound company and found one with consistent revenue growth, earnings growth, and cash flow growth that over the course of a decade increased each year I have a potential winner. The pool of available stocks shrink. Now, I can forgive a down year since many companies are cyclical. Out of those potential four categories a company could score 40 points. One down year in revenue? Minus a point and so on as long as future years grow... all good. Any company that scored 35 or better is one class vs another that may score 30. Even Alcoa, Weatherford, and a few others are investable but it's another discussion. So projecting gets tricky. A company trading at a 10 P/E likely has short term cyclical issues and the market is telling me this though the numbers haven't caught. That's okay because I'm a contrarian and I want unloved stocks. Basically, if a company exhibits a cash flow yield of 10% or better (take cash flow per share and subtract cap ex spending. Then take that number and multiply by the outstanding shares. Take that number and divide by the market cap which gives youa yield) then I'm really interested and start with conference calls and balance sheet research. I miss on some obvious bargains but reach on others not in this defined universe. It's not rocket science (I needed a tutor to get thru remedial math barely graduate college...) and I'm racking up 28% average returns because I bet big on good to great companies and I'm not afraid to take a profit. Lots of singles and doubles and foul balls but seldom do I strike out. Yeah, I missed Go Pro and sold too soon Yahoo and Facebook. Apple, Whirlpool, Eaton, General Motors, Buckle, Beacon
There is hope. Virtual reality, drone delivery and wearable cameras are promising. Lord help them if Apple steps in.
Lance.
Bought a bag of wheat cents and just sat there looking at it.
Linda O. came to the shop with her grandpa's coins one day and needed to help her son with his college tuition. I bought the collection for thousands of dollars.
A man , came later who was overseeing the clean-up of the nuclear power plant and he collected toners. He purchased a few of those toners that guys like and came back some weeks later dissatisfied with the investment he made since NGC bagged about 15 of his "choicest" He'd gotten about 9 from me
I agreed to make him whole if they didn't grade at the big house. He was so happy , after that that I hoped and hoped and did the submission.
I cracked them all out and resubmitted them to PCGS where about 80% of them came back graded. A few of his (he never bought them toners from me) did not make the grade. They were kind of a 'neon' type. Really vibrant colors. They remained genuine with questionable toning.
The coins I sold , truly were in albums or those felt holders previously mentioned for a long time. I knew it. The lady who sold me knew it.
Investment ? Coins ? Find what you like and don't mess with them. That's my advice on the time spent with either. Research. And live with the truth that you make bad choices some times or great choices when you elect to do it at your own pace without risking too much. Enjoy a pain threshold and climb out of the hole.
Tuition is like intuition, if you pay in enough, you save yourself much grief.
Time is an investment. Use it wisely.
That being said, I collect coins mostly for fun, but with a long term look of slowly selling my collection off after I retire. The joy of owning them will be way greater than any profit or loss that happens when it comes time to sell.
10-4,
My Instagram picturesErik
My registry sets
Buy coins for your business to sell at a profit.
Bought GPRO and sold it. Bought silver and sold it.
Bought a bag of wheat cents and just sat there looking at it.
Your problem is just a matter of numbers. Get out there and buy 10 BAGS of Wheat cents! Then you will have something to stare at.
It's hard to beat the tax advantage of retirement funds. If your self employed you can write off almost 100% of your taxable income up to 53K (59K if 50 or older), it grows tax free and when withdrawn may be taxed at a lower rate then collectables.
Another advantage about retirement accounts is that in many states they are for the most part protected in the case of foreclosure, bankruptcy, etc... Who knows where we will be in a decade with health insurance. ETF's are so flexible and liquid. There are ETF's for every industry, even shorting the market. ETF's like the GLD and SLV are only the size of a modest large cap company. Very small in relation to the overall market.
More words of wisdom ....
I don't view coins as a viable investment at all. This hobby is a lot fun, and it's made my life better, but the investment aspect probably is not there.
I have never understood this.
I take care of the diversification - real estate, art, coins, etc.
Sounds like you have a good deal going with the error coin business and would be wise to tend to it.
Stock: Is it part of a 401K, does your employer match? So, for example, you have an employer who does a 1 to 1 match for the 1st 4%. You put in $5,000. If you would have taken the $5,000 in your paycheck, you would have given up, depending on your tax bracket, $1250. Your employer kicks in $5,000. So your portfolio is, assuming no increase, $10,000 at the end of year 1, whereas without it, your would have $3750 in your pocket. Assuming you invested it all in coins, you would have to have a roughly 180% return for the year, before paying any taxes, and UNCLE always wants his tax share. Yes, someday, you will pay taxes on the $10,000, but that is XX years away.
It is hard to be on the matched funds side.
I do not work in the investment industry, and have no stake in it. My own 401's and the wife's 401's go up and down, but overall, it has been a fantastic investment, and is the key to our retirement. Neither of us have jobs in industries that have pensions, so what we save is what we get + social security. Wife understands 401k's, she does not have a good understanding of ________ (fill in the blank).
So in my own case, I wound up maxing out the 401K annual after creeping it up bit by bit. I also have my own sideline business (classic Mustang parts) that does really well, but I also could have 0 sales for any given day. So, I maxed out the 401K's, and AFTER that, I had money left over to demonstrate what I could do in a more esoteric business, like error coins, or whatever.
Also, it diversifies me. I am in the Dallas area, and live near an area called the Telecom corridor. When telecom was booming, many of my friends were HEAVILY invested in the companies they worked for. Paycheck, Retirement Plan, 401K, everything. Then Telecon tanked. Their 401K's tanked, they got laid off, and the retirement plans vanished. All the eggs in one basket. Same thing with Enron, same thing with Radio Shack. Even though I did very well in the stock of the companies I worked for (Texas Instruments and Amazon) I did not keep their stocks in my retirement plan, for diversification.
I also read a more bullion oriented board. When silver was going straight up, there were untold number of posts about moving all their money, all their retirements, all their 401K's, moving all their MOM's retirements, etc. into silver, even silver futures. I shudder to think what happened to those people. Hey mom, I just lost 2/3's of your 401K. My bad.
It seems you don't have an either or situation. Why not both? If you are truly gifted in error coins, then you will blow the doors off most stock investments. If not, then you have not lost the farm
CUKevin; I can't quote your post for some reason, but here's my response.
Your risks are far higher though. Hedge funds can tap into pools of investments that you and I can't touch. While they may only deliver 12% annual to their customers, they're taking a huge chunk as fees for themselves in addition to usually maintaining a fairly safe portfolio. You're not hitting 700% yields without a chance of losing your entire investment, that's more luck than anything else. To consistently match or beat the market is damn near impossible, hence why I usually suggest to my friends low-cost ETF's. Simply go with one international, one small cap, one mid cap, one large cap, and a low-cost target date fund if one is available, weighted based on your tolerance for risk.
The goal isn't to beat the market, the goal is to establish a relatively safe place to deposit your money to let it grow for 30-35-40 years, with returns that well-outpace inflation and will leave you well off enough to actually retire someday.
Personally I always assume I could lose everything on any investment whether it be coins, stocks, etc. I know some investments have greater risks than others, but they also tend to have greater reward potential.
For those who want to be more hands off and likely less risky, I really like your ETF suggestions. It is actually very similar advice to what I tell friends who want safer and more hands off investments. Even for my friends who want to be more active but also have long term investments, I make similar recommendations as to what you stated. Vanguard is also a personal favorite since the fees are so low and management seems to know what they're doing.
CN eBay
All of my collection is in a safe deposit box!
Really you got to play in your sandbox, when you venture out the sharks smell fresh meat. I have bought very few stocks in my life and doubt I will in the future. I make my living in real estate and nothing scares me at the right price. The right price is what works for me, it may not work for others.
I agree with BillJones while he has some killer coins I would not want to buy today at current retail and feel good about what they are going to do down the road. I think the window has closed on a lot of coins, kind of like old baseball cards and some guns. There are great deals everywhere if you look and it is easier to lose your shirt if you fail to keep your finger on the pulse.
My standard operating manual in most things to to buy heavy sell fast and put the profit into my personel collection.
I have cash at the ready to buy when the opportunity presents itself.
NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!!
working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!
RIP "BEAR"
Some other ideas:
If you have a "day job" and you have a coin business on the side, you have the ability to put away some serious tax deferred income for retirement. If you participate in your day job 401k, you can put up to 18k tax deferred into the program, matching and all that good stuff. You side business can set up a SEP IRA plan that allows you to put up an additonal 18k into the plan with up to 25% of your income into the plan, capped at 52k. That would be 70k/ year in tax deferred income saved for retirement. You can get creative with Traditional/Roth IRA's, another 5.5k in total.
If you have a high deductible insurance plan you can start and contribute to an HSA plan. Look up HSA if you dont know what it is but it allows you to save up to 6.6k (if married; lower if single), tax deferred, grow tax free and be withdrawn tax free if used on medical expenses. Those medical expenses can be incurred any time during your lifetime (starting from when the plan is established) and repaid back ANYTIME during your lifetime as long as you have the backup. A bill that you paid 20 years ago can be withdrawn tax free in retirement, pretty sweet. Lots of things you can do to piggyback on what mustangmanbob has put down, just takes a bit of research. Look up self directed IRA's, you might even be able to buy and sell coins and allow all income to grow tax free or deferred depending on the plan. Look up equity trust self directed, they might allow this.
Just thoughts/options. Good luck!
BST Transactions (as the seller): Collectall, GRANDAM, epcjimi1, wondercoin, jmski52, wheathoarder, jay1187, jdsueu, grote15, airplanenut, bigole
It's a speculative purchase and may or may not do well. Technically, it's sitting right on a support level. If it breaks through, it could be in for another leg down. Might just be a good buy at these levels? I don't know.... I own some and am in the red. I think they have their market cornered. That's not to say someone else can't come in and mess it up. Anything is possible. i don't think Apple is going to do it. Just my opinion. If you like a stock and think it has potential, take some risk capital and buy some! Have some fun with it. You don't have to sink your entire nest egg into it. Just buy a little, and if it drops more, and you still feel good about the company average down- or cut your losses if the scene has changed.
I've done a fair amount of stock trading as well as investing and been doing it a pretty long time. I've had some great years and some rough ones, and I've learned a few things along the way. So, here's my two cents since you've asked.
If you're going to 'invest'- do it for the long haul and in tax deferred accounts like 401-k's (if you have access to them). If not, then max out a Roth IRA.
There's already been some GREAT advice given here and I'm going to echo what some have already said. FTB mentioned index ETF's.
Other's have mentioned the S&P 500... I too, would suggest low cost broad index funds. Dollar cost average into them- every month- a fixed amount of money. Use discipline and buy every month.... Chip away.... And when everyone around you is whining that they're going to sell everything because things are looking really horrible (and this time WILL come again), and you're feeling sick to your stomach and you desperately want to bail out of everything- Don't do it! Instead, if you have some cash on the sidelines- double up your buying!
If you do this, you WILL be handsomely rewarded over time!
Buy quality- when nobody else wants it!
In my opinion, coins CAN be investments- if you buy low and sell high. Art can be an investment, cars, precious metals.......
Individual stocks can soar or tank- depending on many factors... Buy what you KNOW.. And, even then, stuff can come out of the blue and whip you around! This is why diversification is important at risk reduction...
MOST people do not beat the broad market with their investing. This is why, for most investors, dollar cost averaging into low cost index funds IS really the way to go! May not be as much fun- but, over time (unless the end really is at the doorstep) they'll do much better than "trying to beat the market" on their own.
There will be another bear market in stocks at some point. It will bring the economy to it's knees. During those times, it's nice to have something else to enjoy and look at, and if you're lucky, that other asset may have INCREASED in value while stocks have tanked.
Have some fun in whatever you do!
Happy, humble, honored and proud recipient of the “You Suck” award 10/22/2014
"This stock versus that coin?" is easier, and a smarter question.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I invest in stocks as a part of my long-term financial planning. I make near-term choices around putting more in the market vs. allocating capital to my hobby but in the long-term the allocation strategy is broadly fixed.
Alternative investments like coins, art, watches have a place in a portfolio but suggesting that stocks and coins are comparable as asset classes is risky. Companies generate and grow cash flow through their investing and internal capital allocation. Coins appreciate through changes in supply and demand but do not intrinsically generate cash through sitting in my SDB. When dislocations exist in supply and demand in coins there is an opportunity to profit but that is not an investment strategy.
Latin American Collection
I don't view coins as a viable investment at all. This hobby is a lot fun, and it's made my life better, but the investment aspect probably is not there.
I have never understood this.
If you had posed this question to me fives years ago, my answer would have been different. At that time I had done very well with my collection financially, but now now I look at the shows and implications from the Internet, and don't see that many young people. We need to have someone to whom to sell our collections in order to make money or break even, and I don't see the ranks of buyers forming. The auction houses with their high buyers' fees are not helping the situation.
If you had posed this question to me fives years ago, my answer would have been different. At that time I had done very well with my collection financially, but now now I look at the shows and implications from the Internet, and don't see that many young people. We need to have someone to whom to sell our collections in order to make money or break even, and I don't see the ranks of buyers forming. The auction houses with their high buyers' fees are not helping the situation.
There are a decent amount of young(er) people, say under the age of 40, that are regular contributors to this forum, and are fairly serious numismatists. I think the hobby is far from as dead as it may seem.
I think the internet has brought quite a number of people into the national collecting pool, who may not have otherwise been able to collect rare things not locally available. I think that influx has run its course, and the collectors now are the collectors for the time to come. The wild card is whether there will be more international interest in American coins. British rare coins are quite popular, and probably growing in popularity, in former colonies (Australia, Canada, US, etc). Will American coins have similar appeal? If not, and the only collectors are domestic, then interest in coins will slowly contract over the next few decades, but certainly should not disappear any time soon.
I also agree that the hobby is for fun, and probably not great for investment. Coin grades are not the final word, there is also slabs, stickers, marketing, "freshness", and the always intangible 'eye appeal', which makes them lousy as a commodity. The cost of trading, through an auction house, can run 20% when you include fees. Most other investments can be bought and sold with much smaller fees.
As far as stocks vs. coins... Stocks allow for diversification a lot more. Coins can be like throwing all your eggs in one basket.
What's for lunch ? Who's driving this vehicle ? Circle the wagons, boys.
A whole is equal to the sum of it's parts. Got gas ?
I don't view coins as a viable investment at all. This hobby is a lot fun, and it's made my life better, but the investment aspect probably is not there.
I have never understood this.
If you had posed this question to me fives years ago, my answer would have been different. At that time I had done very well with my collection financially, but now now I look at the shows and implications from the Internet, and don't see that many young people. We need to have someone to whom to sell our collections in order to make money or break even, and I don't see the ranks of buyers forming. The auction houses with their high buyers' fees are not helping the situation.
I have come into this hobby / business BECAUSE of the internet, especially eBay. I would not be collecting coins nor selling them if there no internet. I have only been to a few coin shows. All I saw at the shows were a sea of shinny slabbed Morgan dollars at every table which bore me. The prices are also much higher than what you find on eBay. I am very positive about this hobby going forward BECAUSE of the internet which has coins never seen at coin shows.