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State of the Coin Market
cameonut2011
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Is the coin market for sub-$5000 coins dead? It seems that many, even quality collector grade issues, are trading for discounts from a few years before.
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<< <i>Is the coin market for sub-$5000 coins dead? It seems that many, even quality collector grade issues, are trading for discounts from a few years before. >>
I don't know. But if that's true, it's a good thing for collectors.
Quality Toners seem fine
Quality for the Grade Assigned seem fine
Some Truly rare and special top pop coins ...will be tested soon with Pogue next week.
Other stuff might have a different story and can be considered to be in a slump for over a year. There have been plenty of good buys out there.
Looking for Top Pop Mercury Dime Varieties & High Grade Mercury Dime Toners.
<< <i>Other stuff might have a different story and can be considered to be in a slump for over a year. There have been plenty of good buys out there. >>
If you can find them to buy. It seems like there is a dearth of quality material available.
Interest in the hobby and / or …
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
<< <i>The hobbyist and coin enthusiasts are the beneficiaries of the market and it's volatility. That's LIFE, not death. Forever and ever. What goes down affords opportunity. What goes up ?
Interest in the hobby and / or …
The big concern is how many young people are taking an interest in the hobby? It seems like not very many, for economic and life style reasons.
Was outbid last night at 15x price guide.
this is a tricky thing to figure out:
some say there are no coins available and that's reflected in lower prices, someone else says that prices are lower so no one is selling.
I tend to see it as the latter. ten years ago when things across the coin market were moving up there were always coins to be found, there was always the next big auction and there was always a new record high from somewhere on something. that just isn't the case today. certainly it had to end eventually and as the supply slowed and prices followed the collectors who had stuff to sell slowed down, also. much of what had been taking place since around 1998-99 was recycling as many very, very nice coins were re-sold at higher prices than the previous sale. I have always been perplexed by why a collector buys a coin to hold for only a few years till they can make money on the flip, but that's what the Hobby has become in large part, the $$$$ just got too big. there are too many dealers, too many shows and too many auctions. to use a tired expression, this is just an adjustment.
there are lots of nice coins out there, they haven't disappeared, but collectors won't sell if they perceive a loss as the end result.
last Sunday at our little 20 dealer coin show I was behind the counter when a guy I had never seen before offered us a coin --- PCGS PR65Cam 1873/closed 3 no arrows Seated Half-Dollar. the coin was fantastic, solid frost with incredible mirrors and very attractive peripheral tone. I took a few minutes to check some prices, told my boss what I came up with and we made an offer that was rejected. the guy seemed to know what he had and what he wanted but I couldn't understand his choice of venue to sell it!! I believe the outcome may have been different five years ago, but what do I know?
<< <i>Not completely dead because I'm still getting outbid on a regular basis.
Was outbid last night at 15x price guide. >>
This seems to be the trend. People pay stupid money in auctions, but they won't buy coins at a shop or a show.
I get blown out in auctions all the time. Yet when I try to sell a coin at the shows I can't even get Gray Sheet bid for properly graded, certified coins.
I have a really good collection, but there's no way I could sell it to a dealer. They just won't pay fair prices, and that is reflected in the quality of their inventory.
<< <i>The big concern is how many young people are taking an interest in the hobby? It seems like not very many, for economic and life style reasons. >>
Bill J.
Between you and me and those readers who care, it's my view that it isn't a matter of "how many" young people take an interest, but the direction their parents steer them, which concerns me from an economic standpoint. On the contrary, where our youth lead their parents is ultimately the concern.
One example I can relay is this:
A young boy of 11 years came to the shop recently with his dad. I asked the kid what he was interested in. He said, "Silver".
Silver at that time was about $15. About a month or so ago, as I recall. ( Shucks, it hit $15 per ounce in Novermber of 2007, IIRC)
I took a bit of time with questions about WHY silver and what type of silver .
He said he was interested in Mercury dimes. In light of that, he just wanted raw silver. I asked his dad : "Why silver, dad ? "
His dad answered : "I have no idea. It's his idea to spend his allowance and money he earns from his own venues on silver".
That intrigued me. So Zach and I engaged in conversation for about 20 minutes. He had $15 to spend. He could not acquire a whole ounce of silver.
I had a heart for the kid. He seemed well versed and I thought his parents taught him to "seek" and find.
It was his own desire. I ultimately gave him a used Whitman folder for Mercury dimes. And then we picked out of the "junk" , 10 different Mercs.
Was a nice day.
About 2 weeks later, the boy shows up with his mom. She was very nice like his dad. She was also very concerned with where her boy was spending his hard earned money.
Although, after we talked , Zach says : "I want to buy more dimes "
I kept him busy searching through a bag of Mercs. until he had another 10 coins.
Then I figured that was the end of it, when I said, "Some of these will cost more than 15 times face value, Zach, but I will help you and keep the prices as low as possible".
His mom thanked me but was still concerned that maybe her baby was on the wrong track. I didn't think so at all.
So, just to address your concerns for our "youth", again. To me, it is not how many young people collect, but the reasons. It is a great hobby.
Hoarding, not so much but for the cherry picker who takes his time and studies what he's hoarding. Assembling a set is where it started as a hobby, especially for a vast majority , despite the market.
We often hear this question in the market : " Where's the floor ? " Who has it ?
Where's the bottom ? and "through the roof " , or "to the moon".
On a side note : I was most impressed the kid drew my "logo" on his hand made card. What a guy !
It made my week. I hope it makes someone else's day.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
Coins in the $100 to $1000 range are definitely luxury items. The top 1% of coins doing very well. Further down not so much. The bottom 20%. It is bad, real bad, both in the economy and the coin market. The market for dreck, the lowest 20% for any given grade, the overdipped, overworked doctored coins that made it into no problem holders, is not good at all. Half of sheet might be a fair price for that garbage, though good luck with resale.
In the middle, it is on the weak side. Just like the economy. The bear market in silver has not helped. There was a news bit that real median incomes are net down from 2007. Basically there has been no economic progress at all for the past decade or so for average Americans. Some go back to 1973 and real wages and buying power haven't moved much for middle class Americans.
Sold majority of gold coins out of the type set when gold was around $1800. Now I can fill it back up again way cheaper. Will certainly end up cracking out a few I find on the cheap. I do like type set collecting coins under $1500. They will keep me busy for life if I so desire to keep working another 25 years.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
Second, I think it's a difference between dealers trying to sell at retail or retail-plus prices versus non-dealers using Ebay and selling at retail-minus prices that better reflect a truer market value of the coins. Ebay is a large market which does a great job of determining price for common coin issues. The "average Joe" who wants to sell a coin doesn't need to achieve a retail or retail-plus price like dealers and only needs to achieve a price higher than the wholesale price a dealer will offer.
And as far as what coin values are... I think there's a huge disconnect between the PCGS Price Guide and what PCGS coins actually sell for. If you read the description on the PCGS website how the prices are developed, you'll see that it's based on dealer ask prices and prices realized at large auction houses and excludes Ebay transactions. Basically, the PCGS Prices are dealer ask prices and not actual coin sales. Ebay is the largest venue for PCGS coin transactions but it's not used in the PCGS Price Guide. And I believe this creates a bias in the PCGS Price Guide to be too high for most common issue coins. I keep a detailed spreadsheet of the PCGS coins I've purchased on Ebay vs. the PCGS Price Guide price and for 140 PCGS coins purchased in the past year, I've averaged purchasing at a 24% discount from the PCGS Price Guide prices. So if the PCGS Price Guide is your reference for the sub-$5000 coin market being dead, blame the PCGS Price Guide for being too high rather than the market being too soft.
a very good point. sometimes we lose perspective at this site and don't realize that, as a whole, we could probably be called "elitists" if it's our perception that up to $5k is a price tag that the average collector routinely chases.
At the lower end (sub $500 / $5000) there are an increasing number of counterfeits.
At the higher end ($10k+) there is doctoring and movement in grades.
Recently there were threads on grades for AU sliders, 1909 S VDBs and even problem coins. It was mentioned that this is becoming more of an issue and could impact how people want to spend their hobby dollars.
With both of these going on, it seems that before spending money, one really needs to know what they are doing. If you don't have the initial time to invest to get up to spend and the ongoing time to dedicate to analyzing potential acquisitions, it's a challenging environment.
So, a fewer number of experts may be spending more for a smaller set of coins while the more general population, in addition to dealing with economic issues, needs to deal with expertise issues.
That money is coming out of what I'd usually be putting into numis stuff.
With RARE exceptions.
<< <i> Not completely dead because I'm still getting outbid on a regular basis.
Was outbid last night at 15x price guide. >>
May I ask what kind of coins are selling at 15X price guide? I see some amazing Morgan toners do that myself.
100% Positive BST transactions
Edited to add: one other thing I have noticed about the current market is that when something really nice appears in the Bust/Seated area, it disappears into a collection quickly. What is left is the cleaned/damaged dreck you see floating around on eBay, which is 10X uglier dreck than in was back in 2005. So I would not call the current Bust/Seated market dead by any means. This market is characterized by demand outstripping supply for top-shelf coins, yet prices are not really moving upwards in most areas.
All that said I do help him buy ( locate) some coins but mostly in the real shallow end of the pool. We are working on vf capped bust halves and generic unc morgans where and when the price is right. My mother in law is in her mid 80's and she is about to disperse of her morgans and mint and proof sets from 55 up. She and her husband built 5 sets in the 60's and 70's. The bulk came from banks out west at face and from the GSA sales. All all complete minus the 1895 and 1893 s. She does have 3 of the 1893 s so there is not much reason for my son to collect when this is coming down the pipe along with my coins.
NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!!
working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!
RIP "BEAR"
True. I recall thinking at that time (post 9/11) that any rare coin that is correctly graded at these levels is a bargain.
<< <i>My son is 23 years old with decent income, I have advised him to stay away from coins at this time. I told him the time he would need to spend to make it profitable is not to his advantage at this time. The bulk of my collection was in the 500 to 5000 per coin range and I got rid of 90 percent before the meltdown in 2008. I can buy the same coins today for less, in some case for 50 cents on the dollar.
All that said I do help him buy ( locate) some coins but mostly in the real shallow end of the pool. We are working on vf capped bust halves and generic unc morgans where and when the price is right. My mother in law is in her mid 80's and she is about to disperse of her morgans and mint and proof sets from 55 up. She and her husband built 5 sets in the 60's and 70's. The bulk came from banks out west at face and from the GSA sales. All all complete minus the 1895 and 1893 s. She does have 3 of the 1893 s so there is not much reason for my son to collect when this is coming down the pipe along with my coins. >>
If he is young and smart, why not get him the Cherrypickers' Guides, have him study/memorize the easiest to Cherrypick (and most profitable) and have him make some money in the variety market? Memorize 200+ coins, visit shows when time allows and make money. It will keep in in the coin market a bit more, he will learn a ton and he will make money without any doubt.
Some markets are tougher than others but there is plenty of money to be made in coins. You just have to find the right easy niche! No reason to avoid coins for the most part at all. Put that college thinking cap on and go memorize the best coins from the CPGs.
Looking for Top Pop Mercury Dime Varieties & High Grade Mercury Dime Toners.
I see big ticket coins in the CDN taking hits as well as smaller ticket coins. I don't believe in a minimum dollar value coin purchase nor some magic mimimum dollar value that guarantees investment success. It all adds up whether its $20 coins or coins over $500. However, a portfolio of 100 coins in the $20 to $100 range will take longer to liquidate vs a portfolio of 20 coins totaling the same investment amount.
Over $300 one will encounter resistance from coin buyers as the same amount goes a long way at various entertainment and sports venues. The advantage of coins is once you spend that on the entertainment venues, that money is gone forever, however with coins it is not and possibly may appreciate or at least may allow flipping for a profit.
A number of guys in the coin club are in financial straits, drowning in credit card debt, they have been trying to liquidate their material on ebay, taking horrible losses in this market because they have to start the auctions at some amount like 99c or 9.95 to get bids. A number of the members have told them "take your losses because what you sell will instantly knock off debt with 30% annual interest." One guy asked me what should he start over with after all his coins are gone liquidating the debt. I told him "You can start over with world currency, I have so much of it (and a lot of it really nice that I have bought at pennies on the dollar) that if all my coins were gone I could still set up at shows with just that. Add some nice slabbed gold coins and my cases at the show look like a champ" He said "you know that is not a bad idea, its not that heavy to carry around plus that market is gaining momentum."
However if $5000 coins are chump change to someone then I can see how bigger ticket is better.
<< <i>I think the question should be rephrased as coins under $500 instead of under $5,000 to represent the main market for coins and the masses of collectors.
a very good point. sometimes we lose perspective at this site and don't realize that, as a whole, we could probably be called "elitists" if it's our perception that up to $5k is a price tag that the average collector routinely chases. >>
That can NOT be a good sign. I'm still seeing them.
Those aren't ....rare.
Nor even something one would "admire" endlessly. Leastways not so's I think.
I'd post links, but that would harm people trying to convince customers that the prices are "worth" it.
Looking at a listing I found today.
<< <i> Another expensive but way superior coin. >>
uh-huh!
Kinda skeery.
On the other hard, I read about about how people who did sell off during the period I was buying say they could buy the same coins back for a lot less now. If you are collecting items that range from "widgets" to the standard key dates in average conidtion, I agree with you. BUT if you are collecting something above that, the prices on paper might be lower, but where can you buy these pieces at those prices? Certainly not in the big auctions. The prices there are nuts. I get out bid by double and triple the bids I posted, and I'm using the "Coin Facts" numbers and recent auction results as a guide. I've seen problem coins in the big auctions sell the price guide retail amounts and more. I know that they were problem coins because I examined them in person.
The one thing I will say. If I had sold my a collection in 2008 and had not bought the coins I've purchased since then, I'd hard pressed to duplicate those coins now. They just aren't on the market. It seems to be either over graded "dreck" or mega priced stuff in the major auctions. There not much in between.
I find this to be a very confusing market.
<< <i>Is the coin market for sub-$5000 coins dead? It seems that many, even quality collector grade issues, are trading for discounts from a few years before. >>
The market has ups and downs. If you're buying as an investment, you should be paying attention to industry trends, but if you're a collector and not spending your retirement on your collection, you needn't worry since long-term you'll probably come out just fine, and when you do eventually sell your collection you'll probably have had a blast building it and also get a reasonable return on what you spent on your coins.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
<< <i>What does "collector grade" mean here? Does it mean the grade before a large price bump? >>
Dave Bowers often gives his idea of preferred "collector" grades in his books.
<< <i>
<< <i>Not completely dead because I'm still getting outbid on a regular basis.
Was outbid last night at 15x price guide. >>
This seems to be the trend. People pay stupid money in auctions, but they won't buy coins at a shop or a show.
>>
I wonder if it isn't psychological in that people are unsure of themselves and simply think that "better" eyes are bidding on auction coins.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Not completely dead because I'm still getting outbid on a regular basis.
Was outbid last night at 15x price guide. >>
This seems to be the trend. People pay stupid money in auctions, but they won't buy coins at a shop or a show.
>>
I wonder if it isn't psychological in that people are unsure of themselves and simply think that "better" eyes are bidding on auction coins. >>
One combination that brings out the "stupid money" is a PCGS rattle holder + a green CAC sticker. I've seen duplicate coins in regular PCGS holders that sold for $1,700 to $1,800 recently bring $4,800 for the rattle holder + CAC combination. The coins in question were an 1875-P Twenty Cent Piece in MS-64 and 1885 Gold Dollar in MS-65.