American Eagle gold bullion sales remain strong
CaptHenway
Posts: 32,146 ✭✭✭✭✭
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
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<< <i>Point of reference for ASE coins, the Mint does not produce the blanks, they purchase them. Thus, unexpected demand shuts down the process until they can get more blanks. This has happened more than a few times in the history of this series. >>
Any idea of their capacity to strike ASEs?
What kind of volume would it take for the mint to justify setting up their own facility to produce blanks? 200 million? More?
<< <i>No speculation needed. Low gold and silver prices have led to strong ASE and AGE sales. ASE's missed setting an all time record in July by merely 1,000 coins....and that was with the mint essentially shutting down ASE production for 1-2 weeks. >>
More importantly, a belief of higher prices in the future.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Point of reference for ASE coins, the Mint does not produce the blanks, they purchase them. Thus, unexpected demand shuts down the process until they can get more blanks. This has happened more than a few times in the history of this series. >>
Why should it have happened even more than once? Are blanks that rare that the mint cannot ensure they have enough supply covering a year or so out? When this program was instituted it was specifically to satisfy the entire collector demand for them. That means, keep them coming. Don't blame it on the blanks.....get your house in order first. Get multiple vendors if needed. Get some better analysts or economists into the mint's forecasting. Imagine a GM production line where they run out of wheels or windshields multiple times. If I were the guy in charge of ordering those parts I shouldn't have had a job after the 2nd occurrence. My former company used to have to order proprietary boiler parts for all their units 1-2 years in advance from a sole German manufacturer. In the 19 years I was with them I don't ever recall anyone messing up this key boiler parts order where it came back to bite them a year later. Multiple layers of oversight and protection ensured nothing was missed.
<< <i>I read somewhere that the Mint had trouble getting possible vendors to commit to making planchets unless the Mint would commit to buying a certain minimum per year for a multi-year contract to justify the vendor spending the money to tool up. >>
Yep. If I'm gonna be a vendor I want orders/business. Being a backup don't cut it.
<< <i>No speculation needed. Low gold and silver prices have led to strong ASE and AGE sales. ASE's missed setting an all time record in July by merely 1,000 coins....and that was with the mint essentially shutting down ASE production for 1-2 weeks. >>
And still 10% less hard earned good old American dollar bills exchanged than in January. Americans and other silver investors are less eager to exchange "money".
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Popular cars get backordered all the time due to unanticipated demand. People pay over sticker in their haste and need to satisfy their gratification.
new-year issue. When you look at it this way ASE sales this summer are very strong. A June record was set, July, and August is on pace as well.
I like gold. I make no apologies.
Just because the mint sold a bunch of crap to the AP's, doesn't mean it's all been actually really for reals sold... Hence the sh!tload of inventory available for the possible actual buyers not inventory holders...
<< <i>American Eagle gold bullion sales remain strong >>
True, but the rest of the worlds gold bullion coin sales are in the "crapper" because of the strong dollar.
<< <i>I submit this...
Just because the mint sold a bunch of crap to the AP's, doesn't mean it's all been actually really for reals sold... Hence the sh!tload of inventory available for the possible actual buyers not inventory holders... >>
If that were the case the APs would simply stop buying when they've had their fill, but that's not what appears to be happening.
1 June to 31 August 2014 - 6.755 Million ASE's sold at avg. silver price of $20.17 = $136.25 Million
1 June to 11 August 2015 - 12.47 Million ASE's sold at avg. silver price of $15.31 = $190.91 Million
Dollar index a year ago - about 81 vs. today, about 96.
<< <i>I submit this...
Just because the mint sold a bunch of crap to the AP's, doesn't mean it's all been actually really for reals sold... Hence the sh!tload of inventory available for the possible actual buyers not inventory holders... >>
PO1. Resubmit.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
In fact it's quite obvious, but maybe only to a business owner and his accountant ...
<< <i>Lol, just because AP bought it doesn't mean they sold it... How many times does it have to be said or rephrased, lol...
In fact it's quite obvious, but maybe only to a business owner and his accountant ... >>
And just because the AP sold it to the next guy does not mean the next guy sold it. LOL
Once the US mint sells it it goes into the column of "US Silver Eagles Sold."
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>
<< <i>Lol, just because AP bought it doesn't mean they sold it... How many times does it have to be said or rephrased, lol...
In fact it's quite obvious, but maybe only to a business owner and his accountant ... >>
And just because the AP sold it to the next guy does not mean the next guy sold it. LOL
Once the US mint sells it it goes into the column of "US Silver Eagles Sold." >>
Yes and like all the govt reports you quote as bogus, this one also means absolutely nothing, except good marketing scam...
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Lol, just because AP bought it doesn't mean they sold it... How many times does it have to be said or rephrased, lol...
In fact it's quite obvious, but maybe only to a business owner and his accountant ... >>
And just because the AP sold it to the next guy does not mean the next guy sold it. LOL
Once the US mint sells it it goes into the column of "US Silver Eagles Sold." >>
Yes and like all the govt reports you quote as bogus, this one also means absolutely nothing, except good marketing scam... >>
They're not all bogus, only the ones they have to keep revising.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Lol, just because AP bought it doesn't mean they sold it... How many times does it have to be said or rephrased, lol...
In fact it's quite obvious, but maybe only to a business owner and his accountant ... >>
Why would AP's keep loading up on them if they couldn't get rid of them?
<< <i>
<< <i>Lol, just because AP bought it doesn't mean they sold it... How many times does it have to be said or rephrased, lol...
In fact it's quite obvious, but maybe only to a business owner and his accountant ... >>
Why would AP's keep loading up on them if they couldn't get rid of them? >>
It's pretty safe to say they are getting rid of them. The only people I can see denying that are the posters who don't want to admit they are wrong because this information isn't what they want to accept.
In fact it's quite obvious, but maybe only to a business owner and his accountant ...
Well then, give me a reasonable explanation why an AP would buy a load of silver, if they didn't have orders for it. Any reasonable explanation will do. Make your case. I'd like to hear it.
I'm a business owner. Give me the accounting explanation, if you feel more comfortable with that.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Lol, just because AP bought it doesn't mean they sold it... How many times does it have to be said or rephrased, lol...
In fact it's quite obvious, but maybe only to a business owner and his accountant ...
Well then, give me a reasonable explanation why an AP would buy a load of silver, if they didn't have orders for it. Any reasonable explanation will do. Make your case. I'd like to hear it.
I'm a business owner. Give me the accounting explanation, if you feel more comfortable with that. >>
Well, we don't know for a fact that they buy silver that they don't need. but..........
It may be more economical to ship larger quantities since the AP pays freight from the Mint facility.
They expect to be able to sell them.
Your customers get frustrated when you never seem to have anything in stock.
You can always have a "sale" if you need to move inventory.
<< <i>Well then, give me a reasonable explanation why an AP would buy a load of silver, if they didn't have orders for it. Any reasonable explanation will do. Make your case. I'd like to hear it.
I can think of several and both are common sense answers that does not require to be an CPA.
A) Items are favorable priced.
<< <i>Well then, give me a reasonable explanation why an AP would buy a load of silver, if they didn't have orders for it. Any reasonable explanation will do. Make your case. I'd like to hear it.
I can think of several and both are common sense answers that does not require to be an CPA.
A) Items are favorable priced.
A) AP stocking up for the demand he is experiencing
APs buy BEFORE they sell. They don't presell and then order from the mint.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Lol, just because AP bought it doesn't mean they sold it... How many times does it have to be said or rephrased, lol...
In fact it's quite obvious, but maybe only to a business owner and his accountant ...
Well then, give me a reasonable explanation why an AP would buy a load of silver, if they didn't have orders for it. Any reasonable explanation will do. Make your case. I'd like to hear it.
I'm a business owner. Give me the accounting explanation, if you feel more comfortable with that. >>
lol, same reason home depot buys lumber and sits it on the shelves, its not sold til it leaves home depot, even though the wholesaler sold all his, lol, are the employee/government people this naive or ignorant???
<< <i>
<< <i>Lol, just because AP bought it doesn't mean they sold it... How many times does it have to be said or rephrased, lol...
In fact it's quite obvious, but maybe only to a business owner and his accountant ...
Well then, give me a reasonable explanation why an AP would buy a load of silver, if they didn't have orders for it. Any reasonable explanation will do. Make your case. I'd like to hear it.
I'm a business owner. Give me the accounting explanation, if you feel more comfortable with that. >>
lol, same reason home depot buys lumber and sits it on the shelves, its not sold til it leaves home depot, even though the wholesaler sold all his, lol, are the employee/government people this naive or ignorant??? >>
This is what GM does , its called channel stuffing I believe. Let the dealers lose their shirts on a lot full of cars what do they care.
It's nice when you can push your own retailers around.
Another thing, if you look at the number of ASE's sold in just the last 5 years, that represents over 200 Million more added to the market. I mean the market should by all rights be saturated with the things, but instead they all seem to go into deep storage somewhere, reluctant to return.
I'm a business owner. Give me the accounting explanation, if you feel more comfortable with that.>>
I can think of several and both are common sense answers that does not require to be an CPA.
A) Items are favorable priced.
Sarcasm duly noted.
A) They might be more favorably priced in the future. Then what? Weren't they more favorably priced a month ago as well?
lol, same reason home depot buys lumber and sits it on the shelves, its not sold til it leaves home depot, even though the wholesaler sold all his, lol, are the employee/government people this naive or ignorant???
You're saying that an AP buys a load of silver just to sit it on the shelves. I suppose they could, assuming that they hedge as OPA suggests. Most businesses don't intentionally sink a few million $'s into inventory that isn't moving, especially if they have to spend money to hedge against price movements.
That's not in most business plans if you wanna stay in business.
I don't follow your reference to the "employee/government people". I was talking about the APs. What are you referring to?
I knew it would happen.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i><<Well then, give me a reasonable explanation why an AP would buy a load of silver, if they didn't have orders for it. Any reasonable explanation will do. Make your case. I'd like to hear it.
I'm a business owner. Give me the accounting explanation, if you feel more comfortable with that.>>
I can think of several and both are common sense answers that does not require to be an CPA.
A) Items are favorable priced.
Sarcasm duly noted.
A) They might be more favorably priced in the future. Then what? Weren't they more favorably priced a month ago as well?
lol, same reason home depot buys lumber and sits it on the shelves, its not sold til it leaves home depot, even though the wholesaler sold all his, lol, are the employee/government people this naive or ignorant???
You're saying that an AP buys a load of silver just to sit it on the shelves. I suppose they could, assuming that they hedge as OPA suggests. Most businesses don't intentionally sink a few million $'s into inventory that isn't moving, especially if they have to spend money to hedge against price movements.
That's not in most business plans if you wanna stay in business.
I don't follow your reference to the "employee/government people". I was talking about the APs. What are you referring to? >>
He seems to be affirming that the Mint doesn't equate ASEs sold to the APs as ASEs sold to the final buyer, i.e. the public.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
This is how it is supposed to work, right?
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Lol, just because AP bought it doesn't mean they sold it... How many times does it have to be said or rephrased, lol...
In fact it's quite obvious, but maybe only to a business owner and his accountant ...
Well then, give me a reasonable explanation why an AP would buy a load of silver, if they didn't have orders for it. Any reasonable explanation will do. Make your case. I'd like to hear it.
I'm a business owner. Give me the accounting explanation, if you feel more comfortable with that. >>
lol, same reason home depot buys lumber and sits it on the shelves, its not sold til it leaves home depot, even though the wholesaler sold all his, lol, are the employee/government people this naive or ignorant??? >>
This is what GM does , its called channel stuffing I believe. Let the dealers lose their shirts on a lot full of cars what do they care.
It's nice when you can push your own retailers around. >>
How long could this channel stuffing possibly persist without the whole deal blowing up. Does this happen in the coin world too? I sincerely doubt it.
The U.S. Mint sold a bunch of Eagles, they only sell to like 6 entities... So they sold out... Bfd....
The 6 entities have a bunch of silver for sale...
That wasn't the question. The question was "why are the APs buying so many ASEs?
Lol, let's just keep it simple as possible..:
The U.S. Mint sold a bunch of Eagles, they only sell to like 6 entities... So they sold out... Bfd....
The 6 entities have a bunch of silver for sale...
Yes, and the question was "why are the APs buying so many ASEs?
Keeping it as simple as possible here.
I knew it would happen.
I am wondering if it does not necessarily have to "blow up" in a cataclysmic manner.
Maybe just eventually the supply channel backs up, and yes, production will be cut at the source but then wouldn't prices have to start dropping ie deflation until the channel starts to move forward again with a new pick up on sales after excess inventory moves.
I don't see a sudden "explosion" of some sort.
Just wonderin' out loud here.
<< <i>He seems to be affirming that the Mint doesn't equate ASEs sold to the APs as ASEs sold to the final buyer, i.e. the public.
That wasn't the question. The question was "why are the APs buying so many ASEs?
Lol, let's just keep it simple as possible..:
The U.S. Mint sold a bunch of Eagles, they only sell to like 6 entities... So they sold out... Bfd....
The 6 entities have a bunch of silver for sale...
Yes, and the question was "why are the APs buying so many ASEs?
Keeping it as simple as possible here. >>
Same reason Ruth Chris buys steaks...
If the supply doesn't keep moving down the chain ---rapidly---
to the end, the APs will cease buying. Nothing else makes sense.
<< <i>"How long could this channel stuffing possibly persist without the whole deal blowing up."
I am wondering if it does not necessarily have to "blow up" in a cataclysmic manner.
Maybe just eventually the supply channel backs up, and yes, production will be cut at the source but then wouldn't prices have to start dropping ie deflation until the channel starts to move forward again with a new pick up on sales after excess inventory moves.
I don't see a sudden "explosion" of some sort.
Just wonderin' out loud here. >>
You may very well be right. That's why there are so many weekend specials. There is too much inventory and it keeps getting pushed out to the public. But demand still isn't strong enough so there is a constant inventory overhang and prices continue to drop. Eventually an equilibrium will be met and prices will stabilize which will in turn bring out back the folks who know better than to catch a falling knife. Then the economic geniuses on this board can say, "see I told you there was demand". And we can all have a good laugh and sing happy songs.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Lol, let's just keep it simple as possible..:
The U.S. Mint sold a bunch of Eagles, they only sell to like 6 entities... So they sold out... Bfd....
The 6 entities have a bunch of silver for sale... >>
We are talking gold here, not Argentum. They may have a lot of that too. At least the OP was about a large spike in gold eagle production by the mint. Unless one has access to the Mint's inventory records we don't how fast the Mint sold them.
<< <i>He seems to be affirming that the Mint doesn't equate ASEs sold to the APs as ASEs sold to the final buyer, i.e. the public.
That wasn't the question. The question was "why are the APs buying so many ASEs?
Lol, let's just keep it simple as possible..:
The U.S. Mint sold a bunch of Eagles, they only sell to like 6 entities... So they sold out... Bfd....
The 6 entities have a bunch of silver for sale...
Yes, and the question was "why are the APs buying so many ASEs?
Keeping it as simple as possible here. >>
Obviously because they have orders for them or expect to sell them.