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American Eagle gold bullion sales remain strong

CaptHenwayCaptHenway Posts: 31,960 ✭✭✭✭✭
in Precious Metals
Per Coin World:

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Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.

Comments

  • rickoricko Posts: 98,724 ✭✭✭✭✭
    That is interesting....let the speculation (about why) begin....Cheers, RickO
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    No speculation needed. Low gold and silver prices have led to strong ASE and AGE sales. ASE's missed setting an all time record in July by merely 1,000 coins....and that was with the mint essentially shutting down ASE production for 1-2 weeks.
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • DeepCoinDeepCoin Posts: 2,781 ✭✭✭
    Point of reference for ASE coins, the Mint does not produce the blanks, they purchase them. Thus, unexpected demand shuts down the process until they can get more blanks. This has happened more than a few times in the history of this series.
    Retired United States Mint guy, now working on an Everyman Type Set.
  • BAJJERFANBAJJERFAN Posts: 31,057 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Point of reference for ASE coins, the Mint does not produce the blanks, they purchase them. Thus, unexpected demand shuts down the process until they can get more blanks. This has happened more than a few times in the history of this series. >>



    Any idea of their capacity to strike ASEs?

    What kind of volume would it take for the mint to justify setting up their own facility to produce blanks? 200 million? More?
    theknowitalltroll;
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,585 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>No speculation needed. Low gold and silver prices have led to strong ASE and AGE sales. ASE's missed setting an all time record in July by merely 1,000 coins....and that was with the mint essentially shutting down ASE production for 1-2 weeks. >>


    More importantly, a belief of higher prices in the future.

    "How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan

  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Point of reference for ASE coins, the Mint does not produce the blanks, they purchase them. Thus, unexpected demand shuts down the process until they can get more blanks. This has happened more than a few times in the history of this series. >>



    Why should it have happened even more than once? Are blanks that rare that the mint cannot ensure they have enough supply covering a year or so out? When this program was instituted it was specifically to satisfy the entire collector demand for them. That means, keep them coming. Don't blame it on the blanks.....get your house in order first. Get multiple vendors if needed. Get some better analysts or economists into the mint's forecasting. Imagine a GM production line where they run out of wheels or windshields multiple times. If I were the guy in charge of ordering those parts I shouldn't have had a job after the 2nd occurrence. My former company used to have to order proprietary boiler parts for all their units 1-2 years in advance from a sole German manufacturer. In the 19 years I was with them I don't ever recall anyone messing up this key boiler parts order where it came back to bite them a year later. Multiple layers of oversight and protection ensured nothing was missed.
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • CaptHenwayCaptHenway Posts: 31,960 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I read somewhere that the Mint had trouble getting possible vendors to commit to making planchets unless the Mint would commit to buying a certain minimum per year for a multi-year contract to justify the vendor spending the money to tool up.
    Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
  • BAJJERFANBAJJERFAN Posts: 31,057 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I read somewhere that the Mint had trouble getting possible vendors to commit to making planchets unless the Mint would commit to buying a certain minimum per year for a multi-year contract to justify the vendor spending the money to tool up. >>



    Yep. If I'm gonna be a vendor I want orders/business. Being a backup don't cut it.
    theknowitalltroll;
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,941 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>No speculation needed. Low gold and silver prices have led to strong ASE and AGE sales. ASE's missed setting an all time record in July by merely 1,000 coins....and that was with the mint essentially shutting down ASE production for 1-2 weeks. >>



    And still 10% less hard earned good old American dollar bills exchanged than in January. Americans and other silver investors are less eager to exchange "money".
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • DeepCoinDeepCoin Posts: 2,781 ✭✭✭
    Demand is a bit lumpy for the ASE blanks. Remember they are purchased in large quantities from the small number (10 to 12) of authorized dealers who then resell the ASEs. There blanks come from one or two sellers (not sure of the contract status after all these years) and at times the vendor cannot meet demand. When you are near breaking a record for sales suppliers can come up short. This is just one step in the supply chain, given that the authorized dealers hold inventory at these purchasing levels. It is not the end of the world for ASEs to be backordered for a short time.

    Popular cars get backordered all the time due to unanticipated demand. People pay over sticker in their haste and need to satisfy their gratification.
    Retired United States Mint guy, now working on an Everyman Type Set.
  • 92vette92vette Posts: 528 ✭✭✭
    ASE sales shouldn't be compared to January, they should be compared to other july's. January demand is always skewed upward for
    new-year issue. When you look at it this way ASE sales this summer are very strong. A June record was set, July, and August is on pace as well.
  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 44,195 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Something the U.S. Treasury does very well : For the people.
    I like gold. I make no apologies.

    HE>I

  • rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭
    I submit this...

    Just because the mint sold a bunch of crap to the AP's, doesn't mean it's all been actually really for reals sold... Hence the sh!tload of inventory available for the possible actual buyers not inventory holders...
    keceph `anah
  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,118 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>American Eagle gold bullion sales remain strong >>



    True, but the rest of the worlds gold bullion coin sales are in the "crapper" because of the strong dollar. image
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • 92vette92vette Posts: 528 ✭✭✭


    << <i>I submit this...

    Just because the mint sold a bunch of crap to the AP's, doesn't mean it's all been actually really for reals sold... Hence the sh!tload of inventory available for the possible actual buyers not inventory holders... >>



    If that were the case the APs would simply stop buying when they've had their fill, but that's not what appears to be happening.
  • 92vette92vette Posts: 528 ✭✭✭
    Comparing summers.

    1 June to 31 August 2014 - 6.755 Million ASE's sold at avg. silver price of $20.17 = $136.25 Million

    1 June to 11 August 2015 - 12.47 Million ASE's sold at avg. silver price of $15.31 = $190.91 Million

    Dollar index a year ago - about 81 vs. today, about 96.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,585 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I submit this...

    Just because the mint sold a bunch of crap to the AP's, doesn't mean it's all been actually really for reals sold... Hence the sh!tload of inventory available for the possible actual buyers not inventory holders... >>


    PO1. Resubmit.

    "How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan

  • rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭
    Lol, just because AP bought it doesn't mean they sold it... How many times does it have to be said or rephrased, lol...
    In fact it's quite obvious, but maybe only to a business owner and his accountant ...
    keceph `anah
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,585 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Lol, just because AP bought it doesn't mean they sold it... How many times does it have to be said or rephrased, lol...
    In fact it's quite obvious, but maybe only to a business owner and his accountant ... >>


    And just because the AP sold it to the next guy does not mean the next guy sold it. LOL

    Once the US mint sells it it goes into the column of "US Silver Eagles Sold."

    "How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan

  • rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Lol, just because AP bought it doesn't mean they sold it... How many times does it have to be said or rephrased, lol...
    In fact it's quite obvious, but maybe only to a business owner and his accountant ... >>


    And just because the AP sold it to the next guy does not mean the next guy sold it. LOL

    Once the US mint sells it it goes into the column of "US Silver Eagles Sold." >>


    Yes and like all the govt reports you quote as bogus, this one also means absolutely nothing, except good marketing scam...
    keceph `anah
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,585 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>Lol, just because AP bought it doesn't mean they sold it... How many times does it have to be said or rephrased, lol...
    In fact it's quite obvious, but maybe only to a business owner and his accountant ... >>


    And just because the AP sold it to the next guy does not mean the next guy sold it. LOL

    Once the US mint sells it it goes into the column of "US Silver Eagles Sold." >>


    Yes and like all the govt reports you quote as bogus, this one also means absolutely nothing, except good marketing scam... >>


    They're not all bogus, only the ones they have to keep revising. image

    "How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan

  • BAJJERFANBAJJERFAN Posts: 31,057 ✭✭✭✭✭
    170,000 ounces. That's an average of over 14,000 ounces per AP for July. Can't imagine they'd buy THAT much unless they had demand for it.
    theknowitalltroll;
  • 92vette92vette Posts: 528 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Lol, just because AP bought it doesn't mean they sold it... How many times does it have to be said or rephrased, lol...
    In fact it's quite obvious, but maybe only to a business owner and his accountant ... >>



    Why would AP's keep loading up on them if they couldn't get rid of them?
  • SultanOfSwatSultanOfSwat Posts: 344 ✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Lol, just because AP bought it doesn't mean they sold it... How many times does it have to be said or rephrased, lol...
    In fact it's quite obvious, but maybe only to a business owner and his accountant ... >>



    Why would AP's keep loading up on them if they couldn't get rid of them? >>



    It's pretty safe to say they are getting rid of them. The only people I can see denying that are the posters who don't want to admit they are wrong because this information isn't what they want to accept.
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,638 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Lol, just because AP bought it doesn't mean they sold it... How many times does it have to be said or rephrased, lol...
    In fact it's quite obvious, but maybe only to a business owner and his accountant ...

    Well then, give me a reasonable explanation why an AP would buy a load of silver, if they didn't have orders for it. Any reasonable explanation will do. Make your case. I'd like to hear it.

    I'm a business owner. Give me the accounting explanation, if you feel more comfortable with that.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • BAJJERFANBAJJERFAN Posts: 31,057 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Lol, just because AP bought it doesn't mean they sold it... How many times does it have to be said or rephrased, lol...
    In fact it's quite obvious, but maybe only to a business owner and his accountant ...

    Well then, give me a reasonable explanation why an AP would buy a load of silver, if they didn't have orders for it. Any reasonable explanation will do. Make your case. I'd like to hear it.

    I'm a business owner. Give me the accounting explanation, if you feel more comfortable with that. >>



    Well, we don't know for a fact that they buy silver that they don't need. but..........

    It may be more economical to ship larger quantities since the AP pays freight from the Mint facility.

    They expect to be able to sell them.

    Your customers get frustrated when you never seem to have anything in stock.

    You can always have a "sale" if you need to move inventory.
    theknowitalltroll;
  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,118 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Well then, give me a reasonable explanation why an AP would buy a load of silver, if they didn't have orders for it. Any reasonable explanation will do. Make your case. I'd like to hear it.

    I can think of several and both are common sense answers that does not require to be an CPA.

    A) Items are favorable priced.
    B) Low on inventory...buy in bulk to minimize cost. (I would think that most AP's hedge their purchases)
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,585 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Well then, give me a reasonable explanation why an AP would buy a load of silver, if they didn't have orders for it. Any reasonable explanation will do. Make your case. I'd like to hear it.

    I can think of several and both are common sense answers that does not require to be an CPA.

    A) Items are favorable priced.
    B) Low on inventory...buy in bulk to minimize cost. (I would think that most AP's hedge their purchases) >>


    A) AP stocking up for the demand he is experiencing
    B) Low on inventory, he must be selling what he's buying

    APs buy BEFORE they sell. They don't presell and then order from the mint.

    "How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan

  • rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Lol, just because AP bought it doesn't mean they sold it... How many times does it have to be said or rephrased, lol...
    In fact it's quite obvious, but maybe only to a business owner and his accountant ...

    Well then, give me a reasonable explanation why an AP would buy a load of silver, if they didn't have orders for it. Any reasonable explanation will do. Make your case. I'd like to hear it.

    I'm a business owner. Give me the accounting explanation, if you feel more comfortable with that. >>


    lol, same reason home depot buys lumber and sits it on the shelves, its not sold til it leaves home depot, even though the wholesaler sold all his, lol, are the employee/government people this naive or ignorant???
    keceph `anah
  • bronco2078bronco2078 Posts: 10,118 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Lol, just because AP bought it doesn't mean they sold it... How many times does it have to be said or rephrased, lol...
    In fact it's quite obvious, but maybe only to a business owner and his accountant ...

    Well then, give me a reasonable explanation why an AP would buy a load of silver, if they didn't have orders for it. Any reasonable explanation will do. Make your case. I'd like to hear it.

    I'm a business owner. Give me the accounting explanation, if you feel more comfortable with that. >>


    lol, same reason home depot buys lumber and sits it on the shelves, its not sold til it leaves home depot, even though the wholesaler sold all his, lol, are the employee/government people this naive or ignorant??? >>




    This is what GM does , its called channel stuffing I believe. Let the dealers lose their shirts on a lot full of cars what do they care. image

    It's nice when you can push your own retailers around.
  • 92vette92vette Posts: 528 ✭✭✭
    Still does not compute to me. Week after week AP's buy all the mint offers, this summer over 1M a week. Would not they want to turn them around quickly?
    Another thing, if you look at the number of ASE's sold in just the last 5 years, that represents over 200 Million more added to the market. I mean the market should by all rights be saturated with the things, but instead they all seem to go into deep storage somewhere, reluctant to return.
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,638 ✭✭✭✭✭
    <<Well then, give me a reasonable explanation why an AP would buy a load of silver, if they didn't have orders for it. Any reasonable explanation will do. Make your case. I'd like to hear it.

    I'm a business owner. Give me the accounting explanation, if you feel more comfortable with that.>>

    I can think of several and both are common sense answers that does not require to be an CPA.

    A) Items are favorable priced.
    B) Low on inventory...buy in bulk to minimize cost. (I would think that most AP's hedge their purchases)

    Sarcasm duly noted.

    A) They might be more favorably priced in the future. Then what? Weren't they more favorably priced a month ago as well?

    B) Do they have a tiered price structure for volume purchases from the Mint. I don't believe they do. If they hedge their purchases, doesn't this negate point A, Items are favorably priced?


    lol, same reason home depot buys lumber and sits it on the shelves, its not sold til it leaves home depot, even though the wholesaler sold all his, lol, are the employee/government people this naive or ignorant???

    You're saying that an AP buys a load of silver just to sit it on the shelves. I suppose they could, assuming that they hedge as OPA suggests. Most businesses don't intentionally sink a few million $'s into inventory that isn't moving, especially if they have to spend money to hedge against price movements.

    That's not in most business plans if you wanna stay in business.

    I don't follow your reference to the "employee/government people". I was talking about the APs. What are you referring to?

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,638 ✭✭✭✭✭
    double post
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭
    just because any business puts inventory on the shelf is meaningless, refer to roadrunners number of failed business'...
    keceph `anah
  • BAJJERFANBAJJERFAN Posts: 31,057 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i><<Well then, give me a reasonable explanation why an AP would buy a load of silver, if they didn't have orders for it. Any reasonable explanation will do. Make your case. I'd like to hear it.

    I'm a business owner. Give me the accounting explanation, if you feel more comfortable with that.>>

    I can think of several and both are common sense answers that does not require to be an CPA.

    A) Items are favorable priced.
    B) Low on inventory...buy in bulk to minimize cost. (I would think that most AP's hedge their purchases)

    Sarcasm duly noted.

    A) They might be more favorably priced in the future. Then what? Weren't they more favorably priced a month ago as well?

    B) Do they have a tiered price structure for volume purchases from the Mint. I don't believe they do. If they hedge their purchases, doesn't this negate point A, Items are favorably priced?


    lol, same reason home depot buys lumber and sits it on the shelves, its not sold til it leaves home depot, even though the wholesaler sold all his, lol, are the employee/government people this naive or ignorant???

    You're saying that an AP buys a load of silver just to sit it on the shelves. I suppose they could, assuming that they hedge as OPA suggests. Most businesses don't intentionally sink a few million $'s into inventory that isn't moving, especially if they have to spend money to hedge against price movements.

    That's not in most business plans if you wanna stay in business.

    I don't follow your reference to the "employee/government people". I was talking about the APs. What are you referring to? >>



    He seems to be affirming that the Mint doesn't equate ASEs sold to the APs as ASEs sold to the final buyer, i.e. the public.
    theknowitalltroll;
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,585 ✭✭✭✭✭
    reported mint sales of ASE are sales to the APs. Mint doesn't track what the APs sell.

    "How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan

  • 92vette92vette Posts: 528 ✭✭✭
    So Home Depot buys a bunch of lumber from wholesaler. Can't sell it. Stops ordering so much from wholesaler. Wholesaler stops ordering so much from sawmill. Sawmill reports lower monthly sales. Not higher sales.
    This is how it is supposed to work, right?
  • 92vette92vette Posts: 528 ✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>Lol, just because AP bought it doesn't mean they sold it... How many times does it have to be said or rephrased, lol...
    In fact it's quite obvious, but maybe only to a business owner and his accountant ...

    Well then, give me a reasonable explanation why an AP would buy a load of silver, if they didn't have orders for it. Any reasonable explanation will do. Make your case. I'd like to hear it.

    I'm a business owner. Give me the accounting explanation, if you feel more comfortable with that. >>


    lol, same reason home depot buys lumber and sits it on the shelves, its not sold til it leaves home depot, even though the wholesaler sold all his, lol, are the employee/government people this naive or ignorant??? >>




    This is what GM does , its called channel stuffing I believe. Let the dealers lose their shirts on a lot full of cars what do they care. image

    It's nice when you can push your own retailers around. >>



    How long could this channel stuffing possibly persist without the whole deal blowing up. Does this happen in the coin world too? I sincerely doubt it.
  • rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭
    Lol, let's just keep it simple as possible..:
    The U.S. Mint sold a bunch of Eagles, they only sell to like 6 entities... So they sold out... Bfd....
    The 6 entities have a bunch of silver for sale...
    keceph `anah
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,638 ✭✭✭✭✭
    He seems to be affirming that the Mint doesn't equate ASEs sold to the APs as ASEs sold to the final buyer, i.e. the public.

    That wasn't the question. The question was "why are the APs buying so many ASEs?


    Lol, let's just keep it simple as possible..:
    The U.S. Mint sold a bunch of Eagles, they only sell to like 6 entities... So they sold out... Bfd....
    The 6 entities have a bunch of silver for sale...

    Yes, and the question was "why are the APs buying so many ASEs?

    Keeping it as simple as possible here.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • mariner67mariner67 Posts: 2,746 ✭✭✭
    "How long could this channel stuffing possibly persist without the whole deal blowing up."

    I am wondering if it does not necessarily have to "blow up" in a cataclysmic manner.
    Maybe just eventually the supply channel backs up, and yes, production will be cut at the source but then wouldn't prices have to start dropping ie deflation until the channel starts to move forward again with a new pick up on sales after excess inventory moves.
    I don't see a sudden "explosion" of some sort.
    Just wonderin' out loud here.
    Successful trades/buys/sells with gdavis70, adriana, wondercoin, Weiss, nibanny, IrishMike, commoncents05, pf70collector, kyleknap, barefootjuan, coindeuce, WhiteTornado, Nefprollc, ajw, JamesM, PCcoins, slinc, coindudeonebay,beernuts, and many more
  • rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭


    << <i>He seems to be affirming that the Mint doesn't equate ASEs sold to the APs as ASEs sold to the final buyer, i.e. the public.

    That wasn't the question. The question was "why are the APs buying so many ASEs?


    Lol, let's just keep it simple as possible..:
    The U.S. Mint sold a bunch of Eagles, they only sell to like 6 entities... So they sold out... Bfd....
    The 6 entities have a bunch of silver for sale...

    Yes, and the question was "why are the APs buying so many ASEs?

    Keeping it as simple as possible here. >>


    Same reason Ruth Chris buys steaks...
    keceph `anah
  • 92vette92vette Posts: 528 ✭✭✭
    And I thought my last post was keeping it as simple as possible. I'll try again.
    If the supply doesn't keep moving down the chain ---rapidly---
    to the end, the APs will cease buying. Nothing else makes sense.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,941 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>"How long could this channel stuffing possibly persist without the whole deal blowing up."

    I am wondering if it does not necessarily have to "blow up" in a cataclysmic manner.
    Maybe just eventually the supply channel backs up, and yes, production will be cut at the source but then wouldn't prices have to start dropping ie deflation until the channel starts to move forward again with a new pick up on sales after excess inventory moves.
    I don't see a sudden "explosion" of some sort.
    Just wonderin' out loud here. >>



    You may very well be right. That's why there are so many weekend specials. There is too much inventory and it keeps getting pushed out to the public. But demand still isn't strong enough so there is a constant inventory overhang and prices continue to drop. Eventually an equilibrium will be met and prices will stabilize which will in turn bring out back the folks who know better than to catch a falling knife. Then the economic geniuses on this board can say, "see I told you there was demand". And we can all have a good laugh and sing happy songs.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • BAJJERFANBAJJERFAN Posts: 31,057 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Lol, let's just keep it simple as possible..:
    The U.S. Mint sold a bunch of Eagles, they only sell to like 6 entities... So they sold out... Bfd....
    The 6 entities have a bunch of silver for sale... >>



    We are talking gold here, not Argentum. They may have a lot of that too. At least the OP was about a large spike in gold eagle production by the mint. Unless one has access to the Mint's inventory records we don't how fast the Mint sold them.
    theknowitalltroll;
  • BAJJERFANBAJJERFAN Posts: 31,057 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>He seems to be affirming that the Mint doesn't equate ASEs sold to the APs as ASEs sold to the final buyer, i.e. the public.

    That wasn't the question. The question was "why are the APs buying so many ASEs?


    Lol, let's just keep it simple as possible..:
    The U.S. Mint sold a bunch of Eagles, they only sell to like 6 entities... So they sold out... Bfd....
    The 6 entities have a bunch of silver for sale...

    Yes, and the question was "why are the APs buying so many ASEs?

    Keeping it as simple as possible here. >>



    Obviously because they have orders for them or expect to sell them.
    theknowitalltroll;
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