18 Pan-Pac Gold Coins Up For Auction at Summer FUN

keyman64

Ummmm, wow! Nothing like flooding the market all at once and in the same auction.
Most are the $1 but there are a couple $2.5 and a $50.

I guess that is one sale strategy.

Edit: 23 $1 McKinley Gold
18 Grant $1 Gold
12 $2 1/2 Sesquicentennials
7 G$1 Lewis and Clark
28 G$1 Louisiana Purchase

Just trying to scroll quickly and count them...wow!
Someone had a small hoard of these small commem Gold Coins!

lasvegasteddy

so do buyers wait it out for the last examples to come to hammer................................possible lost interest by then
or do they jump in 1st being others will wait it out till the last ones come up................and snag the 1st ones while the gettings are good

it sure would be an interesting auction to watch live

Boosibri

That is a money losing strategy

GrumpyEd

Not sure of the buying strategies.
If I was selling, I'd sell the worst examples first in earlier auctions with the hope that the deepest pocket buyers would be back in the bidding to upgrade as I offered the better ones later.

In any case selling a hoard of similar items in one shot is probably not the best strategy.

amwldcoin

<< <i>Not sure of the buying strategies.
If I was selling, I'd sell the worst examples first in earlier auctions with the hope that the deepest pocket buyers would be back in the bidding to upgrade as I offered the better ones later.

In any case selling a hoard of similar items in one shot is probably not the best strategy. >>



I never understood why Heritage or Stack's for that matter do this. You would think they would be looking out for their consignors.

The conspiracy theory side of me says they do it so they can buy em on the cheap and sell em later!

BillJones

<< <i>That is a money losing strategy >>



Yes, the market is ready to absorb only a small number of these pieces at good prices at any one point in time. That is one of the reasons why the eight or nine NE shillings that were in the recent Kendal sale brought lower than expected prices.

More than twenty years ago a hoard of something like 50 Hawaiian commemorative half dollars were sold in one sale. They comprised a complete catalog, and were sold by one of David Bowers' partnerships. I think it many have been Merena.

roadrunner

I'm not sure it matters all that much. Each of the $1 to $2-1/2 gold commems has a PCGS pop of from 1,000-2,000 coins in grades of MS65 or higher. Then include the NGC coins...that's not exactly rare. I would suspect that during any major coin show you could probably find a half to full dozen or more examples of each...and that doesn't address those specimens in MS64 or less which triples the above numbers. The additional bookkeeping (and higher fees to the consignor) to place these in multiple sales over a year's period may not be worth it to either party. It would probably be simpler for the owner to take the coins to the bourse floor and systematically sell them over a year's time....or consign them to a favored dealer to sell a few at every show. It's also possible that in consigning this larger group in one shot the consignor got buy backs at a reduced rate.

The Stacks/Bowers Americana sale recently had a half dozen or so 1859-s halves in NGC MS63-MS65 grades (25% of the PCGS or NGC pops). I think they actually did better by being left as an original group. There was also a separate PCGS MS66 example (ex-Pittman, Stewart Blay) in that auction that fetched more than I thought it would based on those other specimens being available. There are certainly circumstances where a larger grouping of the same coins perform better than if they were sold piece meal. Sometimes mini-hoards attract more buyers, especially those looking for deals....even if they don't often turn out that way. The potential buyers love that idea that they can look at say a dozen MS65/66 examples of a particular scarce coin and "cherrypick" the best example....or an upgrade or stickerable coin that got overlooked. The higher prices of such coins just might drag along the average ones to better prices. If this consignment of gold commems is a fresh deal that's been off the market for 15-20+ years (or just recently slabbed) this could be an excellent way to market/sell them. This mini-hoard of 70 or so coins represents around 0.16% of the currently slabbed specimens....a drop in the bucket. And even at the 2% level (20 gem coins out of 1,000 slabbed) that's no different than if all a sudden a "hoard" of 12 MS65/66 CBH's hit the market (2% of the PCGS pops)....or....80 MS65/66 $2-1/2 Indian gold type coins (2% of the PCGS pops). I would hope in most series that a temporary 1-2% influx would hardly be noticed.

Fwiw, I recall from the 1988-1989 market that one dealer had a single case full of gem gold commems. I'd recognize their name if I saw it (Sayraj?) Must have had hundreds of them. They were the market for those coins. That certainly didn't depress prices any. PCGS had slabbed 7,000 total of the gold commems by mid-1989 (1,000 in MS65 or higher). Though once the bottom fell out of that market in summer 1989 a case full of those was like a boat anchor. The prices those reached in 1989 were incredible. Today PCGS has slabbed 43,000+, with probably half or more being duplicates.

DaveWcoins

Iraj Sayah was his name, Roadrunner.

roadrunner

<< <i>Iraj Sayah was his name, Roadrunner. >>



Thanks Dave. I knew I had it wrong, but got most of the letters right.

In looking through the summer FUN listings, this isn't an original/fresh hoard though maybe someone's hoarding of the better specimens they found over the past 25 years. On the plus side is that 75% of them stickered, and 75% of them are PCGS. Someone had a pretty good eye for gem gold in buying these. Approx 75% being sold unreserved (at least based on current listing). Overall a pretty strong grouping that should get the interest of any gold commem collector or dealer looking to add some items to their set/inventory.

ms71

The long march down in value for these pieces has run for about 26 years so far, who knows when it will end or reverse. A rough accounting from the peak (July 1989) to the present for MS66 pieces shows:

La. Purchase $1 (avg. of both varieties): Down about 90% since 1989

Lewis & Clark 1904 $1: Down about 80%

Pan Pac $1: Down over 90%

Pan Pac $2.5: Down about 75%

Grant $1 (avg. of both varieties): Down about 85%

McKinley $1 (avg. of both varieties): Down about 90%

Basis is graysheet/bluesheet values.

Since last fall, the slide has continued for most of these. Over the same period, the market in classic silver commems has not been all that different. Who knows how a sizeable group like this will do? I wouldn't expect anything surprisingly good.

roadrunner

Any analysis of the price slide in these coins has to include the grading inflation that occurred. That suggests a halving of prices from yesteryear's MS65 becoming today's MS66 or even MS67. Back in those days a single faint facial hairline or too obvious tick/scuff relegated any of these to MS64 status. Today that might not even bar a coin from MS67 as long as it has killer luster, strike, and eye appeal. There probably isn't a huge change in the numbers of collectors for gem gold commems since 1989. But what has changed is that there were approx 1000 coins in MS65-67 back then, not very many to go around to the entire market. Today, that number could be as high as 14,000, though with resubmissions I'd guess 5,000-7,000 might be more accurate. In any case, that's a huge increase in supply. And it's not just occurred in gem gold commems and gold type. You'll find big increases in favored 19th and 20th century REG sets, even gem 19th century type. In the June 1989 PCGS pop report there are 238 CBH's graded MS64 or higher....today it's 2,435 (10x). The overall listed pops of MS CBH's has increased from 1059 to 51,198 (49x). From a slabbed-only basis, coins were pretty "rare" in 1989 with only 1.07 MILL graded....today it's over 30 MILL.

The below data is for gold commems as a grouping with no break down for individual years, denominations, or types.

June 1989 PCGS grades by a % of the total slabbed MS population of 7138 coins:

MS60 2%
MS61 5%
MS62 16%
MS63 33%
MS64 30%
MS65 13%
MS66 1.5%
MS67 .03%

Today out of 40,285 grading events:

MS60 1%
MS61 2%
MS62 10%
MS63 19%
MS64 33.5%
MS65 20.5%
MS66 12%
MS67 2%
MS68 .01%

ms71

That's about as clear a demonstration as I've seen of the gradeflation that has permeated the market over the last two to three decades. "Good" or "bad" isn't the point, what you would hope for is consistency over time.

AngryTurtle

Here is a plot of Roadrunners data.

Analyst

AmWldCoin: <<I never understood why Heritage or Stack's for that matter do this. You would think they would be looking out for their consignors. ...The conspiracy theory side of me says they do it so they can buy em on the cheap and sell em later! >>

I doubt that there is a plot. One very plausible explanation is that a dealer or an investor ended up in severe financial trouble and needs to sell his coins right away to raise cash.

As Roadrunner points out, these are not rare. Further, Roadrunner indicates that they have been subject to intense speculation in the past, certainly in the late 1980s, probably in the 1970s, too. It would not surprise me if someone bought a large group of them for speculative purposes and recently ended up deeply in debt. People who heavily speculate in one field, given their respective finances, often heavily speculate in other fields, too.

In any event, am I here speculating about the reason for this consignment? No, while I really do not know, I am hypothesizing, not speculating.

Classic Gold Coins for less than $5000 each, Part 2: Commemorative One Dollar Gold Pieces


BillJones: <<That is one of the reasons why the [six] NE shillings that were in the [Kendall Collection] sale brought lower than expected prices>> in March 2015

As Kendall was collecting by die variety, it was fair enough to sell all of his six NE Shillings at one time. The supply side issue arose because so many had been 'on the market' over the past three years from Newman, Partrick and other sources. I have been tracking recent offerings of NE Shillings. I am providing URLs because it is not feasible to provide extensive details about the startling number of recently auctioned NE Shillings in this thread and because the original post was about commems in the Summer FUN auction. If someone wishes to start a thread about NE Shillings, I would be delighted to discuss specific coins in such a thread.

Kendall Collection Sale Brings Solid Prices in Baltimore

The First Coins Struck in The Original Thirteen Colonies: Massachusetts (‘NE’) Silver of 1652

Angry Turtle, I find your graph to be intriguing and educational.

keyman64

Yes, as others have mentioned, these are not rare coins. Rare or not, with this many I still think the prices will be held down a little from previous recent auctions. It will be interesting to see for sure! I have always kinda wanted a nice piece of Dolphin Gold, mostly for my daughter since they are cool and we always watch them. Maybe one day. Thankfully they are not too expensive and they certainly aren't even scarce.

ms71

The $1 Panama-Pacific has always been my favorite coin design. Given the extremely small space available, I think Charles Keck did a superb job & came up with a jewel of a design. Just compare it with the $1 gold commem designs produced by Barber (La. Purchase, Lewis & Clark, McKinley obverse) and Morgan (McKinley reverse, assisted on La. Purchase Jefferson obverse), which are workmanlike at best. Laura Fraser's Grant design isn't bad - I like it, but I don't think it comes near the Panama-Pacific for pure artistry.

keyman64

<< <i>The $1 Panama-Pacific has always been my favorite coin design. Given the extremely small space available, I think Charles Keck did a superb job & came up with a jewel of a design. Just compare it with the $1 gold commem designs produced by Barber (La. Purchase, Lewis & Clark, McKinley obverse) and Barber (McKinley reverse, assisted on La. Purchase Jefferson obverse), which are workmanlike at best. Laura Fraser's Grant design isn't bad - I like it, but I don't think it comes near the Panama-Pacific for pure artistry. >>

topstuf

Dunno if it will be the FUN show, but a local dealer has a complete with frame Pan Pac set coming up soon. Both 50s and the rest with frame, box, and cert.

Sure would have liked to see em all together.

roadrunner

<< <i>Here is a plot of Roadrunners data. Note that its not quite right as the current percentages only add up to 93% >>



Oops. I used the wrong denominator in the pop report which included an extra 3,000 or so circ and proof coins. Now corrected. Nice plot AngryTurtle.

AngryTurtle

<< <i>

<< <i>Here is a plot of Roadrunners data. Note that its not quite right as the current percentages only add up to 93% >>



Oops. I used the wrong denominator in the pop report which included an extra 3,000 or so circ and proof coins. Now corrected. Nice plot AngryTurtle. >>



Plot updated with the new data. Judging from the most common coins in the center of the plot, its interesting to note that the "old MS63" looks to be the "new 64.5"

hiijacker

I just purchased a $1 Pan Pac this week in a old rattler graded a MS-63.

Definitely looks nicer. Based on the gradeflation angle does it make sense to (a) crack out and resubmit, (2) regrade in existing holder, or (c) send to CAC and hope for a gold sticker?

Analyst

MS71: <<The $1 Panama-Pacific has always been my favorite coin design. Given the extremely small space available, I think Charles Keck did a superb job & came up with a jewel of a design. Just compare it with the $1 gold commem designs produced by Barber (La. Purchase, Lewis & Clark, McKinley obverse) and Barber (McKinley reverse, assisted on La. Purchase Jefferson obverse), which are workmanlike at best. Laura Fraser's Grant design isn't bad - I like it, but I don't think it comes near the Panama-Pacific for pure artistry.>>

Scott Travers expresses a view that is consistent with that of MS71 and Keyman64 in posts above. I said in my article of 03/09/14: <<“The design is very sophisticated and has exceptional artistic merit,” Travers maintains. Scott suggests that people should “use a magnifying glass to appreciate” the intricacies and subtleties of the design.>>

Classic Gold Coins for less than $5000 each, Part 2: Commemorative One Dollar Gold Pieces

Boosibri

I bought nearly a set of these when i first started collecting. More money than brains...

ms71

<< <i>I just purchased a $1 Pan Pac this week in a old rattler graded a MS-63. >>





<< <i>Definitely looks nicer. Based on the gradeflation angle does it make sense to (a) crack out and resubmit, (2) regrade in existing holder, or (c) send to CAC and hope for a gold sticker? >>



If it was mine, I'd get it sent to CAC & see how it turns out. A shame to destroy the old rattler.

roadrunner

<< <i>I just purchased a $1 Pan Pac this week in a old rattler graded a MS-63.

Definitely looks nicer. Based on the gradeflation angle does it make sense to (a) crack out and resubmit, (2) regrade in existing holder, or (c) send to CAC and hope for a gold sticker? >>



You never know about hidden problems such as putty, thumbing, residue, etc. Don't crack it out. That puts all the risk on you when you essentially have risk free shots at CAC and then at a PCGS "regrade."
The bump from 63 to 64 is only $200 (+28%) not the often seen +100% in many other US series. And being a 63 rattler I'd say the coin is worth a $100 premium already. So take your shot at CAC
in hopes of a gold sticker. After that I'd probably leave it alone for the day I have to sell it.