Let me add this as well. I got burned worse and more often going to shops before I discovered the importance of TPG's and national shows, and was able to see so many more coins in hand. After the first show, I went back home and looked at my coins again and knew I didn't have a properly trained grading eye.
Say you have a coin that XYZ price guide says is worth $10,000 in a certain grade. How many people are going to walk up to a dealer and pay $10,000 for a raw coin in a flip, even if they agree with the dealer's grade? Very few people. Everyone will discount the coin by some amount, accounting for all the risks of getting the coin into a problem-free PCGS holder at the stated grade. Sure, someone will buy a raw $100 coin, but not a coin of any real value.
This was the way the entire industry transacted business prior to 1986 (ie everyone). I was spending up to $5K per coin on numerous occasions and all those coins are worth more than $10K today. Most most expensive raw purchase was $10K in 1986 for a finest known seated quarter. Even prior to 1991 the vast majority of the coin business was still in raw coins....including the major auction houses. Major raw coin auctions continued years beyond this point with Pittman and Eliasberg (1996-1997), Vermeulle (2001), Queller (2002), and others. I had no problem spending thousands for a raw coin on the bourse floor or at auction in the 1970's to 2000's. In fact I spent around $50K at Vermuelle and $25K at Queller. I'd happily spend $10K today for a worthwhile raw coin. But since most coin shops get these kinds of coins graded first, the odds of that are pretty darn slim.
"My friends who see my collection sometimes ask what something costs. I tell them and they are in awe at my stupidity." (Baccaruda, 12/03).I find it hard to believe that he (Trump) rushed to some hotel to meet girls of loose morals, although ours are undoubtedly the best in the world. (Putin 1/17) Gone but not forgotten. IGWT, Speedy, Bear, BigE, HokieFore, John Burns, Russ, TahoeDale, Dahlonega, Astrorat, Stewart Blay, Oldhoopster, Broadstruck, Ricko, Big Moose.
<< <i>Say you have a coin that XYZ price guide says is worth $10,000 in a certain grade. How many people are going to walk up to a dealer and pay $10,000 for a raw coin in a flip, even if they agree with the dealer's grade? Very few people. Everyone will discount the coin by some amount, accounting for all the risks of getting the coin into a problem-free PCGS holder at the stated grade. Sure, someone will buy a raw $100 coin, but not a coin of any real value.
This was the way the entire industry transacted business prior to 1986 (ie everyone). I was spending up to $5K per coin on numerous occasions and all those coins are worth more than $10K today. Most most expensive raw purchase was $10K in 1986 for a finest known seated quarter. Even prior to 1991 the vast majority of the coin business was still in raw coins....including the major auction houses. Major raw coin auctions continued years beyond this point with Pittman and Eliasberg (1996-1997), Vermeulle (2001), Queller (2002), and others. I had no problem spending thousands for a raw coin on the bourse floor or at auction in the 1970's to 2000's. In fact I spent around $50K at Vermuelle and $25K at Queller. I'd happily spend $10K today for a worthwhile raw coin. But since most coin shops get these kinds of coins graded first, the odds of that are pretty darn slim. >>
When the market was 100% raw, of course you spent loads of money on raw coins. As most coins at the $10k level worthy of grading are already in slabs today I'm stating the obvious in saying it behooves any buyer to question why a five figure coin is not in a slab. Certainly some gems remain in the wild but this isn't 1986 or even 2006.
Some comments: 1. I agree with what Roadrunner wrote. Raw coins that walk into a typical B&M shop will be sent out for professional grading if the value is high enough. 2. In the world of early coppers, lots of coins still trade raw. Plastic is encroaching into the EAC world, but slabbed coppers are still commonly assigned EAC grades if they appear at auction. 3. When I was much younger, raw coins that were 'graded' by a seller were commonly intentionally overgraded (and frequently still are). Slabs have made this practice more difficult to execute. 4. I do agree that collectors need to make a serious effort to learn how to grade what they want to buy, but the slow transition from series to type collecting (largely driven by costs) makes this much more difficult. 5. A buyer can pay an additional sum 'for the plastic,' but on occasion there are times when the plastic will set a ceiling on what the buyer will have to pay (i.e., lower the cost to the buyer). This is not always a one-sided issue.
Member: EAC, NBS, C4, CWTS, ANA
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
<< <i>When will people stop repeating this cliche as if it means they belong to some higher order? >>
Agreed. And in answer to the thread title: It will never happen. Everyone should keep doing what THEY choose to do, and stop worrying about what others do.
The only coins I want put into plastic are my modern rarities, which I do not want to ever sell, which I hope I never have to sell unless I need them. The other reason is if I die, the people who inherit them will know what they are and what their condition is, in hopes they will not be ripped off when trying to sell them. Leaving things after your death is not an easy thing. It stresses people out, I know! If people knew when they were going to die, it would be easier on the others to sell your collections in advance of have an understanding with your heirs before your death.
<< <i>I've always found the "buy the coin, not the holder" statement misleading. If you buy a coin in plastic, you're paying for both.
Say you have a coin that XYZ price guide says is worth $10,000 in a certain grade. How many people are going to walk up to a dealer and pay $10,000 for a raw coin in a flip, even if they agree with the dealer's grade? Very few people. Everyone will discount the coin by some amount, accounting for all the risks of getting the coin into a problem-free PCGS holder at the stated grade. Sure, someone will buy a raw $100 coin, but not a coin of any real value.
Everyone who has submitted any significant number of coins for grading knows about the very real downside risks...the grade that comes in one point too low, or the unforeseen "cleaned" or "altered" designation. It happens to everyone, experts included.
The price you're paying for the plastic--not the coin--is the difference between the price you'd buy the coin for raw (not covering up the grade on a holder, but raw in a flip using only your grading skill) vs. the price you're willing to pay for the coin in PCGS plastic. It's a very real premium, and EVERYONE pays it.
When you buy a coin in PCGS plastic, you're paying a certain amount for the plastic, because a fair amount of downside unforeseen risk has been eliminated for you already. >>
For most collectors, the presence of plastic adds a measure of security to the purchase that the raw coin can't match.
Glad to see there aren't any Doily tickets there. >>
No Doiley's were harmed during this production
MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Anyone buying a TPG coin who swears the label (and/or bean) doesn't at least partly influence their opinion of grade (and/or decision to purchase) is kidding himself. And I can just about guarantee you that everyone here...everyone...including myself...has at least one overgrade in their holdings where the label/sticker overruled their brain.
<< <i>When are the majority of collectors going to buy the coin and not just the plastic? >>
1984 ... the following year, everything changed and the plastic chase began. The saddest fallout of TPGs has been the tendency of collectors to not learn about grading, but rely on the opinions of TPGs instead.
Numismatist Ordinaire See http://www.doubledimes.com for a free online reference for US twenty-cent pieces
Collectors need to think about what resources are in their coin library. There is much to learn and having a plan to further develop knowledge is important.
Mistakes are made and opportunities are squandered...
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
<< <i>Say you have a coin that XYZ price guide says is worth $10,000 in a certain grade. How many people are going to walk up to a dealer and pay $10,000 for a raw coin in a flip, even if they agree with the dealer's grade? Very few people. Everyone will discount the coin by some amount, accounting for all the risks of getting the coin into a problem-free PCGS holder at the stated grade. Sure, someone will buy a raw $100 coin, but not a coin of any real value.
This was the way the entire industry transacted business prior to 1986 (ie everyone). I was spending up to $5K per coin on numerous occasions and all those coins are worth more than $10K today. Most most expensive raw purchase was $10K in 1986 for a finest known seated quarter. Even prior to 1991 the vast majority of the coin business was still in raw coins....including the major auction houses. Major raw coin auctions continued years beyond this point with Pittman and Eliasberg (1996-1997), Vermeulle (2001), Queller (2002), and others. I had no problem spending thousands for a raw coin on the bourse floor or at auction in the 1970's to 2000's. In fact I spent around $50K at Vermuelle and $25K at Queller. I'd happily spend $10K today for a worthwhile raw coin. But since most coin shops get these kinds of coins graded first, the odds of that are pretty darn slim. >>
Did you or someone you know ever buy a raw, high priced coin back in the day that failed to straight grade years later?
Did you feel that the major auction houses back in the day would have properly described all the problems of raw coins or was it only up to the buyer to figure it out?
I am just wondering if people get burned less today on these high ticket coins because of the TPG.
<< <i>I've always found the "buy the coin, not the holder" statement misleading. If you buy a coin in plastic, you're paying for both.
Say you have a coin that XYZ price guide says is worth $10,000 in a certain grade. How many people are going to walk up to a dealer and pay $10,000 for a raw coin in a flip, even if they agree with the dealer's grade? Very few people. Everyone will discount the coin by some amount, accounting for all the risks of getting the coin into a problem-free PCGS holder at the stated grade. Sure, someone will buy a raw $100 coin, but not a coin of any real value.
Everyone who has submitted any significant number of coins for grading knows about the very real downside risks...the grade that comes in one point too low, or the unforeseen "cleaned" or "altered" designation. It happens to everyone, experts included.
The price you're paying for the plastic--not the coin--is the difference between the price you'd buy the coin for raw (not covering up the grade on a holder, but raw in a flip using only your grading skill) vs. the price you're willing to pay for the coin in PCGS plastic. It's a very real premium, and EVERYONE pays it.
When you buy a coin in PCGS plastic, you're paying a certain amount for the plastic, because a fair amount of downside unforeseen risk has been eliminated for you already. >>
<< <i>Did you or someone you know ever buy a raw, high priced coin back in the day that failed to straight grade years later?
Did you feel that the major auction houses back in the day would have properly described all the problems of raw coins or was it only up to the buyer to figure it out?
I am just wondering if people get burned less today on these high ticket coins because of the TPG. >>
Yes, I bought plenty of high priced coins at auction or on the bourse back in the day that failed to get the graded I needed (in that same month). If I couldn't eventually get the grade needed, I sold them for losses. You do this as long as the upgrade "wins" outperform the downgrade "losers." Most of those losers were coins for resale, and not long term holds. Most of my longer term holds graded out at the grade levels I bought them at. The last time I bought a raw coin worth >$1000 that wasn't immediately sent in for grading was back in 1985. One of my first TPG surprises was a "gem" proof seated quarter purchased in 1983 that was body bagged as AT in 1987 when first sent in. That one hurt. That was one I had bought at a Bay State show from a colonial dealer. Bad choice. Since I was traveling a lot in the 1980's and couldn't often attend sales, I always had a major dealer review lots I had selected. I cannot recall a single coin in the $500-$10,000 range that didn't work out real well when they all got graded in 1988. The 5% commission was money well spent.
You certainly couldn't rely on auction house printed descriptions back in the pre-slab days. And you certainly can't rely on them today either, even if the slab gives you min/max on the coin's price range. You could still lose 50% or more today by buying a holder and later finding out the coin is over-graded or has some other problem or issue. No, the auction houses probably won't list all the important flaws/problems on any particular coin. That's left up to the buyer to figure out. After all, they work for the consignor. I remember a superb gem 1859-0 dime in the 1990 James Stack sale that sold for MS66 money ($13,750). Thing is, someone had used a sharp object to dig out the inside of the "O" in "ONE" on the reverse. In my mind that was at least a 1 point deduction...and maybe a BB. The auction description didn't mention it. And two bidders were willing to pay for that coin. Ironically, the buyer of that coin still got it into a MS66 holder. I wonder where that coin is today?
No doubt people get burned a lot less today due to slabbed classic coins. But it's far from fool proof. You could potentially take 60-90% hits on over graded crap in the pre-1986 era. And you still can if you go out and buy raw coins today without the skills to do it. Today's slabs probably limit most hits to 20-30%. It's certainly not risk free considering the wide range in pricing from low end to high end on any single assigned grade. An MS65 bust quarter could range in price from $12K to $40K just based on how nice it is for the grade and which holder it's in. So if you're paying $20K-$30K for $12K quality, that's a problem.
<< <i>Did you or someone you know ever buy a raw, high priced coin back in the day that failed to straight grade years later?
Did you feel that the major auction houses back in the day would have properly described all the problems of raw coins or was it only up to the buyer to figure it out?
I am just wondering if people get burned less today on these high ticket coins because of the TPG. >>
Yes, I bought plenty of high priced coins at auction or on the bourse back in the day that failed to get the graded I needed in that same month. Others didn't and I sold them for losses. You do this as long as the upgrade "wins" outperform the downgrade "losers." Most of those losers were coins for resale, and not long term holds. Most of my longer term holds graded out at the grade levels I bought them at. The last time I bought a raw coin worth >$1000 that wasn't immediately sent in for grading was back in 1985. One of my first TPG surprises was a "gem" proof seated quarter purchased in 1983 that was body bagged as AT in 1987 when first sent in. That one hurt. That was one I had bought at a Bay State show from a colonial dealer. Bad choice. Since I was traveling a lot in the 1980's and couldn't often attend sales, I always had a major dealer review lots I had selected. I cannot recall a single coin in the $500-$10,000 range that didn't work out real well when they all got graded in 1988. The 5% commission was money well spent.
You certainly couldn't rely on auction house printed descriptions back in the pre-slab days. And you certainly can't rely on them today either, even if the slab gives you min/max on the coin's price range. You could still lose 50% or more today by buying a holder and later finding out the coin is over-graded or has some other problem or issue. No, the auction houses probably won't list all the important flaws/problems on any particular coin. That's left up to the buyer to figure out. After all, they work for the consignor. I remember a superb gem 1859-0 dime in the 1990 James Stack sale that sold for MS66 money ($13,750). Thing is, someone had used a sharp object to dig out the inside of the "O" in "ONE" on the reverse. In my mind that was at least a 1 point deduction...and maybe a BB. The auction description didn't mention it. And two bidders were willing to pay for that coin. Ironically, the buyer of that coin still got it into a MS66 holder. I wonder where that coin is today?
No doubt people get burned a lot less today due to slabbed classic coins. But it's far from fool proof. You could potentially take 60-90% hits on over graded crap in the pre-1986 era. And you still can if you go out and buy raw coins today without the skills to do it. Today's slabs probably limit most hits to 20-30%. It's certainly not risk free considering the wide range in pricing from low end to high end on any single assigned grade. An MS65 bust quarter could range in price from $12K to $40K just based on how nice it is for the grade and which holder it's in. So if you're paying $20K-$30K for $12K quality, that's a problem. >>
Do we know for sure that the coin traded hands between these auctions? It's probably also true that the market was stronger at FUN 2014 vs. FUN 2015. The winning bidder in 2014 could have been the reason the coin went $200K higher. With them gone, and maybe another underbidder missing, $200K less is the new level. Being on the market twice in 1 yr doesn't fit the "fresh" criteria of many buyers. Some bidders could have been spent out on Newman and Gardner....and saving $$ for Pogue. Lots of potential reasons it didn't work this time around.
Comments
The majority of collectors sell me raw coins. The coins I've submitted are not for the majority. They're for the few.
This was the way the entire industry transacted business prior to 1986 (ie everyone). I was spending up to $5K per coin on numerous occasions and all those coins are worth more than $10K today. Most most expensive raw purchase was $10K in 1986 for a finest known seated quarter. Even prior to 1991 the vast majority of the coin business was still in raw coins....including the major auction houses. Major raw coin auctions continued years beyond this point with Pittman and Eliasberg (1996-1997), Vermeulle (2001), Queller (2002), and others. I had no problem spending thousands for a raw coin on the bourse floor or at auction in the 1970's to 2000's. In fact I spent around $50K at Vermuelle and $25K at Queller. I'd happily spend $10K today for a worthwhile raw coin. But since most coin shops get these kinds of coins graded first, the odds of that are pretty darn slim.
Glad to see there aren't any Doily tickets there.
<< <i>Say you have a coin that XYZ price guide says is worth $10,000 in a certain grade. How many people are going to walk up to a dealer and pay $10,000 for a raw coin in a flip, even if they agree with the dealer's grade? Very few people. Everyone will discount the coin by some amount, accounting for all the risks of getting the coin into a problem-free PCGS holder at the stated grade. Sure, someone will buy a raw $100 coin, but not a coin of any real value.
This was the way the entire industry transacted business prior to 1986 (ie everyone). I was spending up to $5K per coin on numerous occasions and all those coins are worth more than $10K today. Most most expensive raw purchase was $10K in 1986 for a finest known seated quarter. Even prior to 1991 the vast majority of the coin business was still in raw coins....including the major auction houses. Major raw coin auctions continued years beyond this point with Pittman and Eliasberg (1996-1997), Vermeulle (2001), Queller (2002), and others. I had no problem spending thousands for a raw coin on the bourse floor or at auction in the 1970's to 2000's. In fact I spent around $50K at Vermuelle and $25K at Queller. I'd happily spend $10K today for a worthwhile raw coin. But since most coin shops get these kinds of coins graded first, the odds of that are pretty darn slim. >>
When the market was 100% raw, of course you spent loads of money on raw coins. As most coins at the $10k level worthy of grading are already in slabs today I'm stating the obvious in saying it behooves any buyer to question why a five figure coin is not in a slab. Certainly some gems remain in the wild but this isn't 1986 or even 2006.
Latin American Collection
1. I agree with what Roadrunner wrote. Raw coins that walk into a typical B&M shop will be sent out for professional grading if the value is high enough.
2. In the world of early coppers, lots of coins still trade raw. Plastic is encroaching into the EAC world, but slabbed coppers are still commonly assigned EAC grades if they appear at auction.
3. When I was much younger, raw coins that were 'graded' by a seller were commonly intentionally overgraded (and frequently still are). Slabs have made this practice more difficult to execute.
4. I do agree that collectors need to make a serious effort to learn how to grade what they want to buy, but the slow transition from series to type collecting (largely driven by costs) makes this much more difficult.
5. A buyer can pay an additional sum 'for the plastic,' but on occasion there are times when the plastic will set a ceiling on what the buyer will have to pay (i.e., lower the cost to the buyer). This is not always a one-sided issue.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
<< <i>When will people stop repeating this cliche as if it means they belong to some higher order? >>
Agreed.
And in answer to the thread title: It will never happen. Everyone should keep doing what THEY choose to do, and stop worrying about what others do.
to sell your collections in advance of have an understanding with your heirs before your death.
<< <i>I've always found the "buy the coin, not the holder" statement misleading. If you buy a coin in plastic, you're paying for both.
Say you have a coin that XYZ price guide says is worth $10,000 in a certain grade. How many people are going to walk up to a dealer and pay $10,000 for a raw coin in a flip, even if they agree with the dealer's grade? Very few people. Everyone will discount the coin by some amount, accounting for all the risks of getting the coin into a problem-free PCGS holder at the stated grade. Sure, someone will buy a raw $100 coin, but not a coin of any real value.
Everyone who has submitted any significant number of coins for grading knows about the very real downside risks...the grade that comes in one point too low, or the unforeseen "cleaned" or "altered" designation. It happens to everyone, experts included.
The price you're paying for the plastic--not the coin--is the difference between the price you'd buy the coin for raw (not covering up the grade on a holder, but raw in a flip using only your grading skill) vs. the price you're willing to pay for the coin in PCGS plastic. It's a very real premium, and EVERYONE pays it.
When you buy a coin in PCGS plastic, you're paying a certain amount for the plastic, because a fair amount of downside unforeseen risk has been eliminated for you already. >>
For most collectors, the presence of plastic adds a measure of security to the purchase that the raw coin can't match.
<< <i>Dragon:
Glad to see there aren't any Doily tickets there.
No Doiley's were harmed during this production
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
And I can just about guarantee you that everyone here...everyone...including myself...has at least one overgrade in their holdings where the label/sticker overruled their brain.
RIP Mom- 1932-2012
<< <i>When are the majority of collectors going to buy the coin and not just the plastic? >>
1984 ... the following year, everything changed and the plastic chase began. The saddest fallout of TPGs has been the tendency of collectors to not learn about grading, but rely on the opinions of TPGs instead.
See http://www.doubledimes.com for a free online reference for US twenty-cent pieces
<< <i>When are the majority of collectors going to buy the coin and not just the plastic? >>
After a thorough discussion that goes no where, it will be next Tuesday.
But bonus points for Andy who gave the best answer:
<< <i>Perhaps it's best to sum it up briefly and move on. Here's how I would put it:
1. Knowledge and experience are a big advantage.
2. TPG's can be useful but they are not perfect.
3. Ignore the above two points at your own risk.
I trust that none of this is much of a surprise to anyone here. >>
Collectors need to think about what resources are in their coin library. There is much to learn and having a plan to further develop knowledge is important.
Mistakes are made and opportunities are squandered...
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
<< <i>Say you have a coin that XYZ price guide says is worth $10,000 in a certain grade. How many people are going to walk up to a dealer and pay $10,000 for a raw coin in a flip, even if they agree with the dealer's grade? Very few people. Everyone will discount the coin by some amount, accounting for all the risks of getting the coin into a problem-free PCGS holder at the stated grade. Sure, someone will buy a raw $100 coin, but not a coin of any real value.
This was the way the entire industry transacted business prior to 1986 (ie everyone). I was spending up to $5K per coin on numerous occasions and all those coins are worth more than $10K today. Most most expensive raw purchase was $10K in 1986 for a finest known seated quarter. Even prior to 1991 the vast majority of the coin business was still in raw coins....including the major auction houses. Major raw coin auctions continued years beyond this point with Pittman and Eliasberg (1996-1997), Vermeulle (2001), Queller (2002), and others. I had no problem spending thousands for a raw coin on the bourse floor or at auction in the 1970's to 2000's. In fact I spent around $50K at Vermuelle and $25K at Queller. I'd happily spend $10K today for a worthwhile raw coin. But since most coin shops get these kinds of coins graded first, the odds of that are pretty darn slim. >>
Did you or someone you know ever buy a raw, high priced coin back in the day that failed to straight grade years later?
Did you feel that the major auction houses back in the day would have properly described all the problems of raw coins or was it only up to the buyer to figure it out?
I am just wondering if people get burned less today on these high ticket coins because of the TPG.
<< <i>I've always found the "buy the coin, not the holder" statement misleading. If you buy a coin in plastic, you're paying for both.
Say you have a coin that XYZ price guide says is worth $10,000 in a certain grade. How many people are going to walk up to a dealer and pay $10,000 for a raw coin in a flip, even if they agree with the dealer's grade? Very few people. Everyone will discount the coin by some amount, accounting for all the risks of getting the coin into a problem-free PCGS holder at the stated grade. Sure, someone will buy a raw $100 coin, but not a coin of any real value.
Everyone who has submitted any significant number of coins for grading knows about the very real downside risks...the grade that comes in one point too low, or the unforeseen "cleaned" or "altered" designation. It happens to everyone, experts included.
The price you're paying for the plastic--not the coin--is the difference between the price you'd buy the coin for raw (not covering up the grade on a holder, but raw in a flip using only your grading skill) vs. the price you're willing to pay for the coin in PCGS plastic. It's a very real premium, and EVERYONE pays it.
When you buy a coin in PCGS plastic, you're paying a certain amount for the plastic, because a fair amount of downside unforeseen risk has been eliminated for you already. >>
Well said. Good post.
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
<< <i> I am just wondering if people get burned less today on these high ticket coins because of the TPG. >>
January 9, 2014 ......... $763,750
1826 Half Eagle PCGS MS66
January 7, 2015 ......... $564,000
1826 Half Eagle PCGS MS66
That's a $200,000 loss in just a year.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
<< <i>Did you or someone you know ever buy a raw, high priced coin back in the day that failed to straight grade years later?
Did you feel that the major auction houses back in the day would have properly described all the problems of raw coins or was it only up to the buyer to figure it out?
I am just wondering if people get burned less today on these high ticket coins because of the TPG. >>
Yes, I bought plenty of high priced coins at auction or on the bourse back in the day that failed to get the graded I needed (in that same month). If I couldn't eventually get the grade needed, I sold them for losses. You do this as long as the upgrade "wins" outperform the downgrade "losers." Most of those losers were coins for resale, and not long term holds. Most of my longer term holds graded out at the grade levels I bought them at. The last time I bought a raw coin worth >$1000 that wasn't immediately sent in for grading was back in 1985. One of my first TPG surprises was a "gem" proof seated quarter purchased in 1983 that was body bagged as AT in 1987 when first sent in. That one hurt. That was one I had bought at a Bay State show from a colonial dealer. Bad choice. Since I was traveling a lot in the 1980's and couldn't often attend sales, I always had a major dealer review lots I had selected. I cannot recall a single coin in the $500-$10,000 range that didn't work out real well when they all got graded in 1988. The 5% commission was money well spent.
You certainly couldn't rely on auction house printed descriptions back in the pre-slab days. And you certainly can't rely on them today either, even if the slab gives you min/max on the coin's price range. You could still lose 50% or more today by buying a holder and later finding out the coin is over-graded or has some other problem or issue. No, the auction houses probably won't list all the important flaws/problems on any particular coin. That's left up to the buyer to figure out. After all, they work for the consignor. I remember a superb gem 1859-0 dime in the 1990 James Stack sale that sold for MS66 money ($13,750). Thing is, someone had used a sharp object to dig out the inside of the "O" in "ONE" on the reverse. In my mind that was at least a 1 point deduction...and maybe a BB. The auction description didn't mention it. And two bidders were willing to pay for that coin. Ironically, the buyer of that coin still got it into a MS66 holder. I wonder where that coin is today?
No doubt people get burned a lot less today due to slabbed classic coins. But it's far from fool proof. You could potentially take 60-90% hits on over graded crap in the pre-1986 era. And you still can if you go out and buy raw coins today without the skills to do it. Today's slabs probably limit most hits to 20-30%. It's certainly not risk free considering the wide range in pricing from low end to high end on any single assigned grade. An MS65 bust quarter could range in price from $12K to $40K just based on how nice it is for the grade and which holder it's in. So if you're paying $20K-$30K for $12K quality, that's a problem.
<< <i>
<< <i>Did you or someone you know ever buy a raw, high priced coin back in the day that failed to straight grade years later?
Did you feel that the major auction houses back in the day would have properly described all the problems of raw coins or was it only up to the buyer to figure it out?
I am just wondering if people get burned less today on these high ticket coins because of the TPG. >>
Yes, I bought plenty of high priced coins at auction or on the bourse back in the day that failed to get the graded I needed in that same month. Others didn't and I sold them for losses. You do this as long as the upgrade "wins" outperform the downgrade "losers." Most of those losers were coins for resale, and not long term holds. Most of my longer term holds graded out at the grade levels I bought them at. The last time I bought a raw coin worth >$1000 that wasn't immediately sent in for grading was back in 1985. One of my first TPG surprises was a "gem" proof seated quarter purchased in 1983 that was body bagged as AT in 1987 when first sent in. That one hurt. That was one I had bought at a Bay State show from a colonial dealer. Bad choice. Since I was traveling a lot in the 1980's and couldn't often attend sales, I always had a major dealer review lots I had selected. I cannot recall a single coin in the $500-$10,000 range that didn't work out real well when they all got graded in 1988. The 5% commission was money well spent.
You certainly couldn't rely on auction house printed descriptions back in the pre-slab days. And you certainly can't rely on them today either, even if the slab gives you min/max on the coin's price range. You could still lose 50% or more today by buying a holder and later finding out the coin is over-graded or has some other problem or issue. No, the auction houses probably won't list all the important flaws/problems on any particular coin. That's left up to the buyer to figure out. After all, they work for the consignor. I remember a superb gem 1859-0 dime in the 1990 James Stack sale that sold for MS66 money ($13,750). Thing is, someone had used a sharp object to dig out the inside of the "O" in "ONE" on the reverse. In my mind that was at least a 1 point deduction...and maybe a BB. The auction description didn't mention it. And two bidders were willing to pay for that coin. Ironically, the buyer of that coin still got it into a MS66 holder. I wonder where that coin is today?
No doubt people get burned a lot less today due to slabbed classic coins. But it's far from fool proof. You could potentially take 60-90% hits on over graded crap in the pre-1986 era. And you still can if you go out and buy raw coins today without the skills to do it. Today's slabs probably limit most hits to 20-30%. It's certainly not risk free considering the wide range in pricing from low end to high end on any single assigned grade. An MS65 bust quarter could range in price from $12K to $40K just based on how nice it is for the grade and which holder it's in. So if you're paying $20K-$30K for $12K quality, that's a problem. >>
Thanks
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<< <i> I am just wondering if people get burned less today on these high ticket coins because of the TPG. >>
January 9, 2014 ......... $763,750
1826 Half Eagle PCGS MS66
January 7, 2015 ......... $564,000
1826 Half Eagle PCGS MS66
That's a $200,000 loss in just a year. >>
Do we know for sure that the coin traded hands between these auctions? It's probably also true that the market was stronger at FUN 2014 vs. FUN 2015. The winning bidder in 2014 could have been the reason the coin went $200K higher. With them gone, and maybe another underbidder missing, $200K less is the new level. Being on the market twice in 1 yr doesn't fit the "fresh" criteria of many buyers. Some bidders could have been spent out on Newman and Gardner....and saving $$ for Pogue. Lots of potential reasons it didn't work this time around.