Hey, remember when Gold was $1140?
tneig
Posts: 1,505 ✭✭✭
Ya know, there just isn't enough history in the charts to say what a reasonable steady state area would be.
COA
0
Comments
Replying to Thread: Hey, remember when Gold was $1140?
<< <i>Ya know, there just isn't enough history in the charts to say what a reasonable steady state area would be. >>
Hey!
No I don't remember 1140 gold. I'm sure I've watched it pass through that number on its way up and back down but have no particular reason to focus on 1140. What's your reason? Why that number and not one of the scores/hundreds of others?
----
I DO remember $35 gold. Now THERE was a steady state for ya!
Sorry to hear that selection isn't represented in your charts.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>I remember when gold was $35 per ounce.
same here or below $400
remember the price in 1980. Also
remember the prices in the 1990's.
Should have bet the house on it then
In the classic car blog I routinely visit a poster chimed in this past week cautioning everyone on how gold has gone from $1900 to $500.....and it could happen again. On top of that they said "when I was a "kid," I remember the gold price being about the same level as today ($1200's)."...........I couldn't help but mention that they must have been a "kid" back in 2009.
<< <i>I remember gold at $35-$40. I also
remember the price in 1980. Also
remember the prices in the 1990's.
Should have bet the house on it then >>
Charts are also problematic because usually people are typically looking at gold priced in dollars on those charts... yet the dollar is always moving relative to its past value (due to inflation) and relative to other currencies (euros, etc.). Gold has gone up in dollar terms over the last month, but it's gone up a lot more in relation to the euro and has absolutely skyrocketed in relation to the Russian ruble, as both currencies have fallen against the dollar. Possibly a chart measuring gold against a SDR-type basket of currencies would have more relevance, but I haven't anyone posting charts like that.
But to answer the OP's question, yeah, I remember gold at $1140.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>..... Did the charts tell people to buy gold at the very bottom in 1999? Doubt it, though I'm sure some will claim it did..... >>
They sure did. And it was reinforced again in January 2001 when gold bottomed again <$2 higher at $253. That coupled with the fact there JPM was already carrying around $30 TRILLION in otc derivatives seemed about as sure a bet as you could find. I personally waited for the $300 level to be taken out and then back-tested. Got in for the first time at $315 in Sept 2002. The fact that the stock markets/dollar had diverged vs. gold was the final link. But, that was all displayed in the charts. Had no clue how far gold would go. But at $315 I didn't see a whole lot of downside considering it spent the 1978-1997 period above that level. Sinclair was projecting $1200 at that time just to balance off the US money supply and sovereign debt. In 1999 most people were still intent on chasing the Nasdaq to 5000.
<< <i>
<< <i>..... Did the charts tell people to buy gold at the very bottom in 1999? Doubt it, though I'm sure some will claim it did..... >>
They sure did. And it was reinforced again in January 2001 when gold bottomed again <$2 higher at $253. That coupled with the fact there JPM was already carrying around $30 TRILLION in otc derivatives seemed about as sure a bet as you could find. I personally waited for the $300 level to be taken out and then back-tested. Got in for the first time at $315 in Sept 2002. The fact that the stock markets/dollar had diverged vs. gold was the final link. But, that was all displayed in the charts. Had no clue how far gold would go. But at $315 I didn't see a whole lot of downside considering it spent the 1978-1997 period above that level. Sinclair was projecting $1200 at that time just to balance off the US money supply and sovereign debt. In 1999 most people were still intent on chasing the Nasdaq to 5000. >>
A number of the reasons you list are are fundamentals (e.g., the huge volume of OTC derivatives; the fact that everyone else was rushing into stocks at that time). In 1999, gold was falling to near all-time lows (nominal prices last seen in the mid-1970s). Again, what chart from 1999 were people looking at and saying "according to X technical analysis this is the time to get in." ? You yourself said you didn't get in until 2002. Maybe the 1999 charts weren't all that compelling
<< <i>
<< <i>..... Did the charts tell people to buy gold at the very bottom in 1999? Doubt it, though I'm sure some will claim it did..... >>
They later told people they SHOULD HAVE bought gold at the very bottom in 1999. Pretty sure the chart at the time didn't say "Hey, this is the bottom."
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
There should be enough evidence on these boards that charts can be a very effective investing tool.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I was telling my clients to buy the Franklin Gold and Precious Metals fund FKRCX in 2000. It was like pulling teeth. Charts to me gold/silver were very undervalued relative to equities.
There should be enough evidence on these boards that charts can be a very effective investing tool. >>
Based on your chart, what will be the price of silver at Friday's close? If it's fuzzy, does it tell you if silver will be above or below Monday's US opening of $18.30? Please base your answer strictly on what the chart tells you.
Edited to add: And if it's not to much trouble post the chart along with your interpretation. Would be a great learning tool for many.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I don't advise anyone to invest in coins or bullion/precious metals, as a coin dealer. I just like collecting some made of the yellow stuff. So for what I do, and so far as I've seen, this old market has been going for thousands of years…. up and down. And with respect to that, nothing's changed.
<< <i>
<< <i>I was telling my clients to buy the Franklin Gold and Precious Metals fund FKRCX in 2000. It was like pulling teeth. Charts to me gold/silver were very undervalued relative to equities.
There should be enough evidence on these boards that charts can be a very effective investing tool. >>
Based on your chart, what will be the price of silver at Friday's close? If it's fuzzy, does it tell you if silver will be above or below Monday's US opening of $18.30? Please base your answer strictly on what the chart tells you. >>
I'd like to hear the answer to this too.
is no answer to what I was asking about because the markets are not static in recent years. Looking at the charts
for a trend of a steady state range may not be practical I know. However looking at the 20 year view, the last year or
so appears to have a closer change range for gold. Silver range still seems to be dropping.
<< <i>A number of the reasons you list are are fundamentals (e.g., the huge volume of OTC derivatives; the fact that everyone else was rushing into stocks at that time). In 1999, gold was falling to near all-time lows (nominal prices last seen in the mid-1970s). Again, what chart from 1999 were people looking at and saying "according to X technical analysis this is the time to get in." ? You yourself said you didn't get in until 2002. Maybe the 1999 charts weren't all that compelling
But the first and most important was where the chart stood and the double 2 year bottom. Though I made that quite clear. The charts were pretty darn compelling from 1999-2002, you really had a multi-year entry if you were paying attention. And as soon as the metals moved up a little bit by 2003/2004, the fiat and stock market bugs were screaming that gold was headed right back down to the $200's. Prechter, Ramsey, and others were in that camp. It never hurts to try and confirm your chart analysis with fundamentals that agree. Buying on just one or the other doesn't work as well as buying on both of them. I also had more money available in 2002. That helps too.
Who cares if you bought the exact gold bottom in 1999 at $252 when it hit $253 again in 2001? The bragging rights for catching the bottom 2 years earlier got you nothing if you didn't sell into the 1999 gold and currency crisis of $330's. Just 2 years of going nowhere. Silver actually bottomed in 1993. What good would buying that $3.55-$3.60 bottom done you if you were a long term hold?.....it was still only $4.00 in 2001. The 1998-2002 gold and silver charts were very compelling. And having witnessed the PCGS forum atmosphere during the 2002-2004 transition, I can assure you that it was generally one of complete disbelief where bears outnumbered bulls between 4-1 to 9-1. Apparently, the charts weren't compelling enough for the vast majority. It wasn't until gold was over $800-$1,100 that the odds evened out and former bears saw a compelling chart.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
While Russia converts all of its oil and gas sales into gold.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I'm not sure that Iceland can pull everyone else out of their tailspins.
I knew it would happen.