$25 Oil?!?!

renman95 · January 19, 2015 8:44AM

Zanganeh said Iran's budget should be based on oil at $72 per barrel, but Iran could withstand lower oil prices.

"Even if the oil price goes down to $25 a barrel, the oil industry (OPEC) will not be threatened," the Fars news agency quoted him as saying.

cohodk · January 19, 2015 9:04AM

When has any comment from Iran been truthful?

renman95 · January 19, 2015 12:41PM

<< When has any comment from Iran been truthful? >>

True, but the 'black-gold' has gone from $100+ in July to the mid $40's with nary a budge by OPEC. What's another 20 bucks among cartel members?

gsa1fan · January 19, 2015 10:25PM

OPEC assets = OIL and sand. Not much demand for sand.

When I talked to the state man he said that "$20 a barrel OPEC was willing to go"!

What else to they have to sell?

MGLICKER · January 19, 2015 10:38PM

<< 

<< When has any comment from Iran been truthful? >>

True, but the 'black-gold' has gone from $100+ in July to the mid $40's with nary a budge by OPEC. What's another 20 bucks among cartel members? >>

Arab Spring part deux? Maybe kissing the House of Saud and the Ayatollah How Many goodbye.

ricko · January 20, 2015 12:28AM

Still a ways to go.... the final shake out could be real interesting... Cheers, RickO

cohodk · January 20, 2015 11:32AM

<< 

<< 

<< When has any comment from Iran been truthful? >>

True, but the 'black-gold' has gone from $100+ in July to the mid $40's with nary a budge by OPEC. What's another 20 bucks among cartel members? >>

Arab Spring part deux? Maybe kissing the House of Saud and the Ayatollah How Many goodbye. >>

So are we complaining about $25 oil now?

Baley · January 23, 2015 11:58AM

I don't expect $25 oil, and think prices may stabilize around $60 eventually

roadrunner · January 23, 2015 12:17PM

<< ........So are we complaining about $25 oil now? >>

To turn the table on those fiat bugs who wouldn't want to live in an "insane" world of "high" gold price:

I DON'T WANT TO LIVE IN A WORLD WITH $25 OIL - IT WOULD BE LIKE THE 1950'S ALL OVER AGAIN. THE RUSSIANS ARE COMING....THE RUSSIANS ARE COMING. .

Pretty neat that ever since the final gold link was cut in 1973 oil has been a roller coaster ride - 26 yrs of stable prices....we can't have that!

The Saudi's must have put on some heavy short future's action before embarking on this move. Probably laughing all the way to the bank.

johnny9434 · January 24, 2015 12:50AM

low oil prices sure did slow the american production down

renman95 · January 24, 2015 3:04AM

<< 

<< ........So are we complaining about $25 oil now? >>

To turn the table on those fiat bugs who wouldn't want to live in an "insane" world of "high" gold price:

I DON'T WANT TO LIVE IN A WORLD WITH $25 OIL - IT WOULD BE LIKE THE 1950'S ALL OVER AGAIN. THE RUSSIANS ARE COMING....THE RUSSIANS ARE COMING. .

Pretty neat that ever since the final gold link was cut in 1973 oil has been a roller coaster ride - 26 yrs of stable prices....we can't have that!

The Saudi's must have put on some heavy short future's action before embarking on this move. Probably laughing all the way to the bank.

>>

Looking at your graph shows nearly every spike has nearly an equal and opposite affect. Just sayin'....

pf70collector · January 24, 2015 4:06AM

OPEC (Saudi Arabia) is getting rid of the oil production competition in the U.S. or helping the U.S. punish Russia.

dpoole · January 24, 2015 10:42PM

...or perhaps Saudi Arabia has too much competition in oil production now, and realizes cutting their own output would only mean they don't get any money at all.

gsa1fan · January 24, 2015 11:20PM

<< ...or perhaps Saudi Arabia has too much competition in oil production now, and realizes cutting their own output would only mean they don't get any money at all. >>

My thoughts exactly. They have been oil $$ dependent a long time.

On another note I find my SS Monte Carlo exceedlying more fun to drive these days!

ebaytrader · January 24, 2015 11:58PM

There isn't enough production that can be sustained at $25bbl for current worldwide demand for oil and dollars. One of three things would have to happen: 1. ww demand would have to drop further for the price to be sustained, or 2. bbl price would have to increase from $25, or 3. the dollar would have to gain an incredible amount of ground in forex trading (tremendous $ deflation).

When spikes down in oil have occurred in the past, it has been done by OPEC to chase the marginal producers. The fly in the ointment for OPEC this time is that shale production volume can be easily recaptured as prices bounce back as the down spike that usually lasts about 6 months. Conventional oil wells are generally not able to recapture the same production volume after an intermediate shutdown, and this has been the OPEC playbook for decades.

derryb · January 25, 2015 1:03AM

Oil is another good example of the effect that speculators have on price. Consumers are currently setting the price on many assets.

ebaytrader · January 25, 2015 1:51AM

<< Oil is another good example of the effect that speculators have on price. Consumers are currently setting the price on many assets. >>

Please expand on that thought.

Up front, and contrary to what you hear on tv from journalism majors, you must realize that options and futures contracts expire, or you take delivery. "Speculators" are not in a position to accept delivery. I'd like an explanation on how "speculators" drive the Spot (cash) price.

Thanks. I'll hang up now and await your explanation.

TwoSides2aCoin · January 25, 2015 2:14AM

I'm not sure about the world, but my car just took a quart today. And it's got to be synthetic.

derryb · January 25, 2015 2:23AM

<< 

<< Oil is another good example of the effect that speculators have on price. Consumers are currently setting the price on many assets. >>

Please expand on that thought.

Up front, and contrary to what you hear on tv from journalism majors, you must realize that options and futures contracts expire, or you take delivery. "Speculators" are not in a position to accept delivery. I'd like an explanation on how "speculators" drive the Spot (cash) price.

Thanks. I'll hang up now and await your explanation. >>

Speculators can easily play oil and many other commodities via ETFs. GLD (gold) and SLV (silver) are good commodity examples. Do they affect spot price? Definitely.

How oil speculation raises oil prices

DrBuster · January 25, 2015 2:49AM

<< 

<< ...or perhaps Saudi Arabia has too much competition in oil production now, and realizes cutting their own output would only mean they don't get any money at all. >>

My thoughts exactly. They have been oil $$ dependent a long time.

On another note I find my SS Monte Carlo exceedlying more fun to drive these days!

>>

What year?

My right foot has been heavy on the hemi lately too, ha!

gsa1fan · January 25, 2015 3:30AM

2002 Nascar Competition yellow

gsa1fan · January 25, 2015 3:32AM

Supply and Demand is driving oil prices basic economics.

410a · January 25, 2015 3:45AM

Speculators in far too many markets aside from "oil" alone are causing this world wide economic issue. $20 oil???????????? What? The Clinton years were chock full of $20 oil......AND NEVER FORGET Supply can create demand!!!!! "supply can created demand" pulsing an economy forward. Although the world currency markets are a "hoot" right now.

derryb · January 25, 2015 4:49AM

<< Supply and Demand is driving oil prices basic economics. >>

Consumer demand and speculator demand are two different forces. The Gold and Silver markets are great examples. Paper supply is much different than physical supply as is the demand for each.

410a · January 25, 2015 8:47AM

There is equilibrium and dis equilibrium there are facts and there are tendencies at play here. It wasn't that long ago the main stream news media reported that the Saudi's were not sitting or living over all that much oil. When was this reported??? When gasoline prices were high very high. $4.75 in Connecticut for example.......now that reporting was not a basis in fact. The first thing you need to learn about basic economics is SUPPLY CAN CREATE DEMAND...at this point the supply is creating demand to know what the tendency of such a market is. Stop talking this supply and demand equation with gold/silver, oil and gas, without an understanding of "money market" forces such as the US Dollar, the tendency to it as the world's reserve currency. The ECU, the ECU states the GNP and GDP of this USA and other countries. There is a tendency at play right now...........nothing is a fact. Did lower gasoline prices increase GDP???? NO!!!! Christmas sales ???? NO!!!! Then, where is all the "saved" money going???? It's not saved it's just not spent. There is a tendency to be afraid of the economy. There is a lot of money in need of a home right now er well, a lot of currency in need of a home. Furthermore there is no QE4, a rate increase scare and I mean scare. A slow down in China, metals prices falling a Dow at 17,5 k that looks like Pre depression era Japan did in 1988 and all of which have no logical reason to see gold at $1296 per ounce and a dollar index rising to new highs every day. There is a huge tendency to look at all as a deflaionary cycle. Especially with flat wages and high food prices not consistent with a low CPI. Now, I am saying tendency. The only FACTS are stagnation, ECU deflation, low fuel prices and no increase in GDP none. Check into this before you say there is any such increase. i.e. medical costs are not a good indicator of economic health, spending is not happening the only thing that is happening is Oil companies are shutting down drilling quicker that a light switch going off The world is getting concerned and drifting into gold and silver at these prices as currencies cannot stabize. Read today's NY Times on the Franc. Check out the moves made by Putin in Russia and Japanese borrowing rates. It's chaotic. THIS IS BAD MONEY CHASING OUT GOOD. The supply of fear and focus on what might happen is driving the tendency to hunker down. Metals will fall and they have not all metal non'ferrous is Gold or Silver. All these markets have at this point is a "tendency" no fact. So, nothing is "supply and demand" simplistic. .......I don't feel like editing this......

derryb · January 25, 2015 9:04AM

An increase in supply without a reduction in price will not increase demand. Supply only affects demand when an increase in supply results in lower asking prices. Additionally, competitors will not lower prices because of an increase in supply unless their product is backing up at the factory or until competition or a desire for increased market share forces them to do so.

Just because Ford builds twice as many cars as the market is willing to buy does not mean the market will buy them without a reduction in price. Supply has to first affect prices before it will indirectly affect demand.

roadrunner · January 25, 2015 9:14AM

<< Supply and Demand is driving oil prices basic economics. >>

There is a lot more driving oil prices here than just supply and demand. The charts would suggest that "technical" forces are strongly at work. And the fact that otc oil derivatives are also in play is also a speculative issue vs. supply/demand. We saw the same play in July 2008. The average oil price in 2014 and/or 2015 is far more indicative of true supply/demand. The big market players ride a trend until it blows up. It's about speculators making money, not so much supply and demand.

gsa1fan · January 25, 2015 10:04AM

<< There is equilibrium and dis equilibrium there are facts and there are tendencies at play here. It wasn't that long ago the main stream news media reported that the Saudi's were not sitting or living over all that much oil. When was this reported??? When gasoline prices were high very high. $4.75 in Connecticut for example.......now that reporting was not a basis in fact. The first thing you need to learn about basic economics is SUPPLY CAN CREATE DEMAND...at this point the supply is creating demand to know what the tendency of such a market is. Stop talking this supply and demand equation with gold/silver, oil and gas, without an understanding of "money market" forces such as the US Dollar, the tendency to it as the world's reserve currency. The ECU, the ECU states the GNP and GDP of this USA and other countries. There is a tendency at play right now...........nothing is a fact. Did lower gasoline prices increase GDP???? NO!!!! Christmas sales ???? NO!!!! Then, where is all the "saved" money going???? It's not saved it's just not spent. There is a tendency to be afraid of the economy. There is a lot of money in need of a home right now er well, a lot of currency in need of a home. Furthermore there is no QE4, a rate increase scare and I mean scare. A slow down in China, metals prices falling a Dow at 17,5 k that looks like Pre depression era Japan did in 1988 and all of which have no logical reason to see gold at $1296 per ounce and a dollar index rising to new highs every day. There is a huge tendency to look at all as a deflaionary cycle. Especially with flat wages and high food prices not consistent with a low CPI. Now, I am saying tendency. The only FACTS are stagnation, ECU deflation, low fuel prices and no increase in GDP none. Check into this before you say there is any such increase. i.e. medical costs are not a good indicator of economic health, spending is not happening the only thing that is happening is Oil companies are shutting down drilling quicker that a light switch going off The world is getting concerned and drifting into gold and silver at these prices as currencies cannot stabize. Read today's NY Times on the Franc. Check out the moves made by Putin in Russia and Japanese borrowing rates. It's chaotic. THIS IS BAD MONEY CHASING OUT GOOD. The supply of fear and focus on what might happen is driving the tendency to hunker down. Metals will fall and they have not all metal non'ferrous is Gold or Silver. All these markets have at this point is a "tendency" no fact. So, nothing is "supply and demand" simplistic. .......I don't feel like editing this...... >>

Well I was told all the BIGs got a bunch oil and really need to sell some. Maybe someone can produce a chart.

Baley · April 30, 2015 1:44AM

Well, here comes the summer driving season. Will it be any surprise when the price of gasoline rises?

Friday January 23, 2015 7:58 PM

I don't expect $25 oil, and think prices may stabilize around $60 eventually

but first, it will likely overshoot

DrBuster · April 30, 2015 2:12AM

Gas has gone up about ~30 cents around me in the past couple weeks already.

derryb · April 30, 2015 2:19AM

$25 oil and $12 silver not out of the question.

Baley · May 16, 2015 3:12AM

<< $25 oil and $12 silver not out of the question. >>

$150 oil and $50 silver are not out of the question.. if one is young enough

LowBudget · May 16, 2015 3:30AM

NY just back up to near $3 for a gallon of gas...most of he taxes are going to criminals...doesn't matter the price of a barrel anymore (for the consumer anyway) the oil to gallon # says we are all getting robbed either way

MsMorrisine · May 16, 2015 4:02AM

Newborns can enjoy $60 oil right now

Paper markets are finding that spot under just under shale oil costs.

High oil and low silver is not my idea of a party but this is reality I can see.

Baley · May 16, 2015 5:43AM

<< NY just back up to near $3 for a gallon of gas...most of he taxes are going to criminals...doesn't matter the price of a barrel anymore (for the consumer anyway) the oil to gallon # says we are all getting robbed either way >>

Booooo, world! Hisssss people! this sucks

cohodk · May 16, 2015 6:24AM

Rhetoric is becoming delusion. So sad, the loss of clear and rational thought.

OperationButter · May 16, 2015 8:46AM

<< NY just back up to near $3 for a gallon of gas...most of he taxes are going to criminals...doesn't matter the price of a barrel anymore (for the consumer anyway) the oil to gallon # says we are all getting robbed either way >>

southern California is over $4/g

DrBuster · May 16, 2015 10:33AM

<< Rhetoric is becoming delusion. So sad, the loss of clear and rational thought. >>

Where's the lack? Oil sure seems like a winner bet played since Jan 1 if folks payed attention. Hell you've countered against the 35% rally since the 44 low and still think there's no juice left long, or have we read you wrong??

~20% long hold is strong ytd btw, but that's just charts and numbers and stuff right.

cohodk · May 17, 2015 1:29AM

No I didnt. Go back and read. Ive been saying it won't get ov er 65 since December. I'm sticking to that. It also won't be 100 in 3 years. Im sticking to that.

Surely it bounced, and if you read all my comments you will have seen I traded UWTI. I'm a trader focusing on short term moves in context of the bigger trend. That keeps my trading stable. You guys bounce around from bull to bear depending on what conspiracy is touted. Do you paint in the same studio or move the canvas from room to room? Consistency is what makes you good.

Oil is, quite literally, a dinosaur.

cohodk · May 17, 2015 1:30AM

3.50 for premium in Norcal. Diesel is 3.15

25% cheaper than a year ago. Have we forgotten already?

DrBuster · May 17, 2015 1:39AM

<< No I didnt. Go back and read. Ive been saying it won't get ov er 65 since December. I'm sticking to that. It also won't be 100 in 3 years. Im sticking to that.

Surely it bounced, and if you read all my comments you will have seen I traded UWTI. I'm a trader focusing on short term moves in context of the bigger trend. That keeps my trading stable. You guys bounce around from bull to bear depending on what conspiracy is touted. Do you paint in the same studio or move the canvas from room to room? Consistency is what makes you good.

Oil is, quite literally, a dinosaur. >>

Ha, touche.

Gin was talking last night, no offense.

renman95 · July 30, 2015 6:30AM

Oil to hit low $30's by end of 2015

Gold trend to continue...sub $1,000?

cohodk · July 30, 2015 8:39AM

<< Oil to hit low $30's by end of 2015

>>

If that turns out to be true im sure someone here will complain about it. LOL

jmski52 · July 30, 2015 9:21AM

Speculators do have some impact on oil prices, both up and down. The most recent debacle (that we know about) was SemCrude.

roadrunner · July 30, 2015 12:13PM

JPM has $4 TRILL in what are probably mostly short based otc commodity derivatives. I suspect they have plenty of that amount allotted to oil derivatives. What's a few $TRILLION at 35-1 leverage?

derryb · July 30, 2015 4:53PM

Crude down 19% in July. Does not bode well for commodities, including PMs. Look for further PM declines as real asset prices continue to deflate. Make believe assets are a different story. It has become Seinfeld's "Bizzaro World." The smart investor is preparing himself for a return to reality.

DrBuster · July 30, 2015 8:24PM

<< 

<< Oil to hit low $30's by end of 2015

>>

If that turns out to be true im sure someone here will complain about it. LOL >>

I will complain if it brings my stock-pickem game ranking down on Jan 1. Ha! Shoulda went with the guns picks I had (rgr, swhc) but the coin flip won out on my other choices for the game.

metalmeister · August 1, 2015 1:41AM

It's Good and bad for me. I own 5 vehicles and 2 are V8's 335 HP , 2 V6's and a 16 valve twin cam 4 banger BUT I own a TON of Big oil stocks

cohodk · August 1, 2015 2:05AM

<< It's Good and bad for me. I own 5 vehicles and 2 are V8's 335 HP , 2 V6's and a 16 valve twin cam 4 banger BUT I own a TON of Big oil stocks

>>

Ain't America great?!. Just like in Argentina, Zimbabwe, Weinar, and Greece.

renman95 · August 1, 2015 5:31AM

<< 

<< It's Good and bad for me. I own 5 vehicles and 2 are V8's 335 HP , 2 V6's and a 16 valve twin cam 4 banger BUT I own a TON of Big oil stocks

>>

Ain't America great?!. Just like in Argentina, Zimbabwe, Weinar, and Greece. >>

I wouldn't know. I live in Asia.

CaptHenway · August 3, 2015 2:44AM

Down $1.85 a barrel today. Might force the local gas station to lower their price another cent!

$25 Oil?!?!

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