<< <i>Down $1.85 a barrel today. Might force the local gas station to lower their price another cent! >>
Gas prices down 10% in the last month in this neck of the woods. Diesel is 2.33, unless I go to the next town over where it's 2.84. I guess that town has inflation.
My understanding is that a lot of the fracked wells produce the vast majority of their output in the first year. Last I heard tell, it cost about $70 a barrel to break even when fracking. Given that price, somewhere around late fall of 2014 fracking for oil should have nosedived, with a concomitant dropoff in fracked oil production somewhere around late 2015. Obviously there will be some companies that have sunk fixed costs, so they will continue to produce after that even if they are nominally losing money on every barrel produced, but aside from that group, I would expect to see less production from the fields with high production costs.
Personally I STRONGLY suspect the Major Oils will be buying up the small producers in the US that have high proven reserves but are financially illiquid at this stage. As the saying goes, "Buy when there's blood in the streets". After all, more energy will be needed and consumed (particularly in the medium term) given the World's economy is still growing EVEN WITH the dead economy in Europe and Japan, the slowdown in China, the mediocre growth in the US, the wars in the Ukraine, the Middle East etc. etc.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
There was a narrative for a time that low oil prices were some sort of Saudi master plan but things can't be working out very well for them at these prices.
If the record number of beheadings are an indicator things are getting grim over there . Their whole economy is based on oil money doled out to the populace to keep them firmly tethered to their 7th century roots .
The Arab spring movement never penetrated to Saudi Arabia but if the government goes down there , that would probably push prices up quite a bit.
I thought it was becoming the Petroyuan? The Chinese have $4 TRILL in mostly US dollar denominated reserves that they'd love to sell for real "stuff"....oil included. They will be importing $500 BILL worth in oil over the next 5 years and I suspect a lot of that will be via dollar-denominated assets while the prices for them are still robust. Sell dollar/treasuries high...buy oil low.
<< <i>I thought it was becoming the Petroyuan? The Chinese have $4 TRILL in mostly US dollar denominated reserves that they'd love to sell for real "stuff"....oil included. They will be importing $500 BILL worth in oil over the next 5 years and I suspect a lot of that will be via dollar-denominated assets while the prices for them are still robust. Sell dollar/treasuries high...buy oil low. >>
Yeah, that's what I thought too. I was told here that the US dollar was garbage. Seems it buys more than it has in a long time. Ever since the Chinese supposedly took over the oil and copper markets it's been all downhill. Now the PM'ERS are cheering Chinese involvement in the gold market?
Who's cheering for China in the gold market, or oil market? That's the job of King World News or Zero Hedge. I've only reported on what I can find in the news or from govt reports on what China is doing....not an easy task. I'm not cheering them on. In fact, they might even be the world's biggest gold or silver paper short..going back the past 2 years. Regardless, whether cheering or jeering them will not change what they are doing. You either react to China or get mowed over by them. I'd rather be a tiny or insignificant part of the mower than the mulch.
<< <i>Who's cheering for China in the gold market, or oil market? . >>
I've read right here in this very forum that China in the gold market will finally lead to legitimate price discovery. There are lots of threads about it and most forum members seem to be happy about it.
<< <i>Who's cheering for China in the gold market, or oil market? . >>
I've read right here in this very forum that China in the gold market will finally lead to legitimate price discovery. There are lots of threads about it and most forum members seem to be happy about it. >>
Fair enough. And I agree, price discovery will/should improve. It certainly can't get any worse than it has been. I'm not most forum members and I ain't cheering or jeering for China. Whatever comes.....comes. But, if they end up getting their bank reserves up to 3,000-5,000 tonnes of gold, then it will likely lead to much higher gold prices.
It's probably a pretty short list of forum members being happy about it. Maybe no one. But, they might agree that it's a step to improved price discovery. I'd be for that. I would say that price discovery in today's financial markets has gone backwards by at least a few years....maybe a decade or more....possibly all the way back to derivative's being declared unregulated in 2001.
Originally posted by: renman95 $35.45, DOW down over 300, 2016 not looking any better.
"What Went Wrong In Oil?" -WSJ "Analysts were mistaken-very mistaken-in their forecasts because they forgot the past"
Maybe $25 is doable.
I hope so! I'm trying to win an American Silver Eagle in our 2015 stock picking contest.
I loaded up on oil, gas and gold. But some how Wingsrule manages to have the bottom spot sewn up each year. I thought I was a shoe in but companies can go to zero, commodities, even when beaten silly, not quite so.
Originally posted by: renman95 $35.45, DOW down over 300, 2016 not looking any better.
"What Went Wrong In Oil?" -WSJ "Analysts were mistaken-very mistaken-in their forecasts because they forgot the past"
Maybe $25 is doable.
I hope so! I'm trying to win an American Silver Eagle in our 2015 stock picking contest.
I loaded up on oil, gas and gold. But some how Wingsrule manages to have the bottom spot sewn up each year. I thought I was a shoe in but companies can go to zero, commodities, even when beaten silly, not quite so.
I'm ahead of you there...er, below you. First to fifty-first in one year.
Now that OPEC has intentionally strangled a lot of its competition by allowing oil prices to crash (by not previously cutting production in the face of falling prices), Oil is likely to skyrocket in the future. History will show this to have been a brilliant, calculated move on the part of OPEC.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
Originally posted by: derryb Now that OPEC has intentionally strangled a lot of its competition by allowing oil prices to crash (by not previously cutting production in the face of falling prices), Oil is likely to skyrocket in the future. History will show this to have been a brilliant, calculated move on the part of OPEC.
Now that OPEC has intentionally strangled a lot of its competition by allowing oil prices to crash (by not previously cutting production in the face of falling prices), Oil is likely to skyrocket in the future. History will show this to have been a brilliant, calculated move on the part of OPEC.
Originally posted by: derryb Now that OPEC has intentionally strangled a lot of its competition by allowing oil prices to crash (by not previously cutting production in the face of falling prices), Oil is likely to skyrocket in the future. History will show this to have been a brilliant, calculated move on the part of OPEC.
I don't know about this , Saudi Arabia could be in a civil war if these prices continue.
They are tightening up the purse strings on the welfare state , we may gripe about the 1% here but I think over there the lower 99% are on the dole from oil money and if they start feeling the pinch they could get uppity.
The house of Saud has been fomenting unrest all over the middle east its about time they get hoist by their own petard I'd say
Originally posted by: derryb Now that OPEC has intentionally strangled a lot of its competition by allowing oil prices to crash (by not previously cutting production in the face of falling prices), Oil is likely to skyrocket in the future. History will show this to have been a brilliant, calculated move on the part of OPEC.
Now that OPEC has intentionally strangled a lot of its competition by allowing oil prices to crash (by not previously cutting production in the face of falling prices), Oil is likely to skyrocket in the future. History will show this to have been a brilliant, calculated move on the part of OPEC.
How and why?
... and most importantly, When?
That's easy to answer.
Really? Having a difficult time choosing from among
Originally posted by: derryb Now that OPEC has intentionally strangled a lot of its competition by allowing oil prices to crash (by not previously cutting production in the face of falling prices), Oil is likely to skyrocket in the future. History will show this to have been a brilliant, calculated move on the part of OPEC.
How and why?
... and most importantly, When?
That's easy to answer.
Really? Having a difficult time choosing from among
"When pigs fly" "When hell freezes over" "Not in my lifetime" and "Never"
I don't believe that Saudi Arabia has decided to limit production in order to drive competitors out of business and recapture market share.
Shale oil isn't going away because people stop fracking it. Neither will the pipelines and infrastructure. Poorly capitalized US producers will certainly fail, but will simply be gobbled up by the strong oil people who are able to wait this out. Much of US oil is of a comparable quality to Saudi light sweet crude, and will always be in high demand. All that currently subdued production stands to revitalize immediately as soon as the oil prices start moving up again.
As far as the Saudis are concerned, they've already burned through $100 million of their $700 reserves. They're in deep trouble from all sorts of quarters, and will never recapture the market dominance they once had.
IMHO, the Saudis are pumping furiously in the face of falling prices simply because they have no choice.
I wouldn't want to have a large loan based on drilling expansion, fracking in general or oil sands recovery right about now. Maybe later. Or $80,000 electric cars based on energy "savings".
Why would "we" decide to give Iran $150 billion and discontinue sanctions on their oil, especially when "we" already know that it will destroy the current crop of oil companies in the Baaken and Eagle Ford shale regions?
Obviously, "someone" plans to buy our domestic oil producers, cheap.
Poor old Warren Buffett. He couldn't make money on Burlington Northern by shipping oil by rail when fracking became a big success or by having his pet senator and state legislators throw up barriers to TransCanada's pipeline - so now he has to buy the whole oil field! Poor guy, it gets harder and harder to make a buck these days.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I just saw Brent at $27.48...8am, Monday morning in Hong Kong.
Just $2.48 to go.
The talk on the local business show was on possible $20 oil, maybe even $10.
I like to hear talk like this.
Except gasoline will get only so cheap. It may well get to the point where the cost of oil is the least of all costs that go into producing a gallon of gasoline. I doubt that we''ll see 30 cent gasoline again.
Then again, if you're a believer in global warming and any associated climate change and would like to see a reduction in fossil fuel use, it would seem that dirt cheap oil is the last thing you'd want.
Comments
<< <i>Down $1.85 a barrel today. Might force the local gas station to lower their price another cent! >>
America the Greediful. We overproduced and we're still dependent on foreign oil, except now we're depending on them cutting production.
<< <i>Down $1.85 a barrel today. Might force the local gas station to lower their price another cent! >>
Gas prices down 10% in the last month in this neck of the woods. Diesel is 2.33, unless I go to the next town over where it's 2.84. I guess that town has inflation.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Personally I STRONGLY suspect the Major Oils will be buying up the small producers in the US that have high proven reserves but are financially illiquid at this stage. As the saying goes, "Buy when there's blood in the streets". After all, more energy will be needed and consumed (particularly in the medium term) given the World's economy is still growing EVEN WITH the dead economy in Europe and Japan, the slowdown in China, the mediocre growth in the US, the wars in the Ukraine, the Middle East etc. etc.
U.S. Type Set
Now we have silver wars. That's fine by me.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>$38.36 >>
what kind of oil is $38.36?
The canadian tar sands oil is around $25 does that count?
<< <i>
<< <i>$38.36 >>
what kind of oil is $38.36?
The canadian tar sands oil is around $25 does that count?
It's rude crude.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>$38.36 >>
what kind of oil is $38.36?
The canadian tar sands oil is around $25 does that count?
It's rude crude. >>
They need $50 to $90 a barrel to make a profit on it so they have that all going for them
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>$38.36 >>
what kind of oil is $38.36?
The canadian tar sands oil is around $25 does that count?
It's rude crude. >>
They need $50 to $90 a barrel to make a profit on it so they have that all going for them
That may not happen though, if beforehand they reach a state of total consciousness...
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>$38.36 >>
what kind of oil is $38.36?
The canadian tar sands oil is around $25 does that count?
It's rude crude. >>
They need $50 to $90 a barrel to make a profit on it so they have that all going for them
That may not happen though, if beforehand they reach a state of total consciousness... >>
If only we could get some clueless taxpayers to foot the bill for a pipeline maybe it would close the gap a bit
There was a narrative for a time that low oil prices were some sort of Saudi master plan but things can't be working out very well for them at these prices.
If the record number of beheadings are an indicator things are getting grim over there . Their whole economy is based on oil money doled out to the populace to keep them firmly tethered to their 7th century roots .
The Arab spring movement never penetrated to Saudi Arabia but if the government goes down there , that would probably push prices up quite a bit.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Dang petrodollar. >>
Somebody still buying oil with dollars?
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
<< <i>I thought it was becoming the Petroyuan? The Chinese have $4 TRILL in mostly US dollar denominated reserves that they'd love to sell for real "stuff"....oil included. They will be importing $500 BILL worth in oil over the next 5 years and I suspect a lot of that will be via dollar-denominated assets while the prices for them are still robust. Sell dollar/treasuries high...buy oil low. >>
Yeah, that's what I thought too. I was told here that the US dollar was garbage. Seems it buys more than it has in a long time. Ever since the Chinese supposedly took over the oil and copper markets it's been all downhill. Now the PM'ERS are cheering Chinese involvement in the gold market?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Who's cheering for China in the gold market, or oil market? . >>
I've read right here in this very forum that China in the gold market will finally lead to legitimate price discovery. There are lots of threads about it and most forum members seem to be happy about it.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>Who's cheering for China in the gold market, or oil market? . >>
I've read right here in this very forum that China in the gold market will finally lead to legitimate price discovery. There are lots of threads about it and most forum members seem to be happy about it. >>
Fair enough. And I agree, price discovery will/should improve. It certainly can't get any worse than it has been. I'm not most forum members and I ain't cheering or jeering for China. Whatever comes.....comes. But, if they end up getting their bank reserves up to 3,000-5,000 tonnes of gold, then it will likely lead to much higher gold prices.
It's probably a pretty short list of forum members being happy about it. Maybe no one. But, they might agree that it's a step to improved price discovery. I'd be for that. I would say that price discovery in today's financial markets has gone backwards by at least a few years....maybe a decade or more....possibly all the way back to derivative's being declared unregulated in 2001.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Speaking of China , whats gutter oil going for ?
"What Went Wrong In Oil?" -WSJ
"Analysts were mistaken-very mistaken-in their forecasts because they forgot the past"
Maybe $25 is doable.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
$35.45, DOW down over 300, 2016 not looking any better.
"What Went Wrong In Oil?" -WSJ
"Analysts were mistaken-very mistaken-in their forecasts because they forgot the past"
Maybe $25 is doable.
I hope so! I'm trying to win an American Silver Eagle in our 2015 stock picking contest.
I loaded up on oil, gas and gold. But some how Wingsrule manages to have the bottom spot sewn up each year. I thought I was a shoe in but companies can go to zero, commodities, even when beaten silly, not quite so.
Charles III Album
Charles III Portrait Set
Charles IV Album
Charles IV Portrait Set
Spanish Colonial Pillar Set
$35.45, DOW down over 300, 2016 not looking any better.
"What Went Wrong In Oil?" -WSJ
"Analysts were mistaken-very mistaken-in their forecasts because they forgot the past"
Maybe $25 is doable.
I hope so! I'm trying to win an American Silver Eagle in our 2015 stock picking contest.
I loaded up on oil, gas and gold. But some how Wingsrule manages to have the bottom spot sewn up each year. I thought I was a shoe in but companies can go to zero, commodities, even when beaten silly, not quite so.
I'm ahead of you there...er, below you. First to fifty-first in one year.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
Now that OPEC has intentionally strangled a lot of its competition by allowing oil prices to crash (by not previously cutting production in the face of falling prices), Oil is likely to skyrocket in the future. History will show this to have been a brilliant, calculated move on the part of OPEC.
How and why?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Now that OPEC has intentionally strangled a lot of its competition by allowing oil prices to crash (by not previously cutting production in the face of falling prices), Oil is likely to skyrocket in the future. History will show this to have been a brilliant, calculated move on the part of OPEC.
How and why?
... and most importantly, When?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Now that OPEC has intentionally strangled a lot of its competition by allowing oil prices to crash (by not previously cutting production in the face of falling prices), Oil is likely to skyrocket in the future. History will show this to have been a brilliant, calculated move on the part of OPEC.
I don't know about this , Saudi Arabia could be in a civil war if these prices continue.
They are tightening up the purse strings on the welfare state , we may gripe about the 1% here but I think over there the lower 99% are on the dole from oil money and if they start feeling the pinch they could get uppity.
The house of Saud has been fomenting unrest all over the middle east its about time they get hoist by their own petard I'd say
Now that OPEC has intentionally strangled a lot of its competition by allowing oil prices to crash (by not previously cutting production in the face of falling prices), Oil is likely to skyrocket in the future. History will show this to have been a brilliant, calculated move on the part of OPEC.
How and why?
... and most importantly, When?
That's easy to answer.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Now that OPEC has intentionally strangled a lot of its competition by allowing oil prices to crash (by not previously cutting production in the face of falling prices), Oil is likely to skyrocket in the future. History will show this to have been a brilliant, calculated move on the part of OPEC.
How and why?
... and most importantly, When?
That's easy to answer.
Really? Having a difficult time choosing from among
"When pigs fly"
"When hell freezes over"
"Not in my lifetime"
and
"Never"
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Now that OPEC has intentionally strangled a lot of its competition by allowing oil prices to crash (by not previously cutting production in the face of falling prices), Oil is likely to skyrocket in the future. History will show this to have been a brilliant, calculated move on the part of OPEC.
How and why?
... and most importantly, When?
That's easy to answer.
Really? Having a difficult time choosing from among
"When pigs fly"
"When hell freezes over"
"Not in my lifetime"
and
"Never"
Lmao!!!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I read smoewhere $10 oil is in the future. Sure, why not. Is this what peak oil looks like? ;-)
Shale oil isn't going away because people stop fracking it. Neither will the pipelines and infrastructure. Poorly capitalized US producers will certainly fail, but will simply be gobbled up by the strong oil people who are able to wait this out. Much of US oil is of a comparable quality to Saudi light sweet crude, and will always be in high demand. All that currently subdued production stands to revitalize immediately as soon as the oil prices start moving up again.
As far as the Saudis are concerned, they've already burned through $100 million of their $700 reserves. They're in deep trouble from all sorts of quarters, and will never recapture the market dominance they once had.
IMHO, the Saudis are pumping furiously in the face of falling prices simply because they have no choice.
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
Iran fixin' to flood the oil market supply
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
Just filled my oil tank for $1.24 a gallon, easy on the wallet compared to a few years ago, when it was nearly $4 a gallon.
$1.24/gallon! Where on earth do you live? On top of your own well?!
Just filled my oil tank for $1.24 a gallon, easy on the wallet compared to a few years ago, when it was nearly $4 a gallon.
$1.24/gallon! Where on earth do you live? On top of your own well?!
FuelSaver is your friend.
He said oil, not gasoline. Wonder if he meant heating oil.
Iran fixin' to flood the oil market supply
Too bad we can't find a way to refuse to allow ANY Iranian or Saudi oil into the U.S.
Just $2.48 to go.
The talk on the local business show was on possible $20 oil, maybe even $10.
I just saw Brent at $27.48...8am, Monday morning in Hong Kong.
Just $2.48 to go.
The talk on the local business show was on possible $20 oil, maybe even $10.
I like to hear talk like this.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Why would "we" decide to give Iran $150 billion and discontinue sanctions on their oil, especially when "we" already know that it will destroy the current crop of oil companies in the Baaken and Eagle Ford shale regions?
Obviously, "someone" plans to buy our domestic oil producers, cheap.
Poor old Warren Buffett. He couldn't make money on Burlington Northern by shipping oil by rail when fracking became a big success or by having his pet senator and state legislators throw up barriers to TransCanada's pipeline - so now he has to buy the whole oil field! Poor guy, it gets harder and harder to make a buck these days.
I knew it would happen.
I just saw Brent at $27.48...8am, Monday morning in Hong Kong.
Just $2.48 to go.
The talk on the local business show was on possible $20 oil, maybe even $10.
I like to hear talk like this.
Except gasoline will get only so cheap. It may well get to the point where the cost of oil is the least of all costs that go into producing a gallon of gasoline. I doubt that we''ll see 30 cent gasoline again.
Then again, if you're a believer in global warming and any associated climate change and would like to see a reduction in fossil fuel use, it would seem that dirt cheap oil is the last thing you'd want.